The Commentariat -- Jan. 18, 2015

Photo removed.

A Constant Weader Challenge to Readers: In the French TV segment I've linked under Infotainment, the host suggests that the Washington Post debunked a survey that showed one in six French people support ISIS. A post in Daily Kos by an anonymous contributor flat-out says, "that poll was debunked by the Washington Post." Yesterday, Akhilleus wrote, "I spotted an article touting the problems recent college grads have with critical thinking. Four out of ten seem unable to parse basic problems or spot logical fallacies." I took a look at the WashPo piece, by Adam Taylor (whose pic suggests he could pass for a recent college grad) supposedly debunking the survey. It's crap. If you spot the logical fallacy in the WashPo post, please write in & tell us what it is. Let's see if a few Reality Chex readers are smarter than the most clueless recent college grads. If not, je désespère.

CW: I've occasionally described the Occupy movement as a failure. But if you look at the stories linked today about President Obama's upcoming SOTU address, Mitt Romney's magical imaginary populism & Elizabeth Warren's clout, it's pretty clear that Occupy, noxious though it became in a number of ways, forced into the open the central issue of our government & of our society, one that has been festering for decades.

Julie Davis of the New York Times: "President Obama will use his State of the Union address to call on Congress to raise taxes and fees on the wealthiest taxpayers and the largest financial firms to finance an array of tax cuts for the middle class, pressing to reshape the tax code to help working families, administration officials said on Saturday.... It was quickly dismissed by leading Republicans as a nonstarter. But the decision to present the plan during Tuesday' speech marks the start of a debate over taxes and the economy that will shape both Mr. Obama's legacy and the 2016 presidential campaign." See also Mitt Romney's "outline to eradicate poverty" in "Presidential Race" below.

Greg Sargent (Friday): "At the Republican retreat, Senate GOP leaders are apparently working overtime to dial down expectations among Republicans who still hope that the Congressional GOP can put a stop to President Obama's out-of-control lawlessness.... Mitch McConnell is telling colleagues that he needs six Democrats to get the 60 votes he needs to overcome the Democratic blockade [of the House Homeland Security/anti-immigrant bill]. The reporting out there indicates that this isn't going to happen. And on top of that, the Hill notes, a handful of Republican Senators (presumably ones up for reelection in Obama states who don't want to vote for deporting the DREAMers) might also oppose the House GOP measure." (Missing link.) ...

     ... Nancy LeTourneau of the Washington Monthly: "The scenario of leadership having to organize a super-majority to get something passed in the Senate while their base makes unreasonable demands and moderates threaten to jump ship is one we've seen before. Perhaps Sen. McConnell should have a little sit-down with Sen. Reid and President Obama to get some pointers. Of course there are a lot of serious issues at stake here. But before we get to those, I'm just going to pause and enjoy a moment of schadenfreude :-)"

Tara Culp-Ressler of Think Progress: "Several Republican congresswomen are reportedly splitting from their party on a national abortion bill that’s scheduled for a vote in the House next week, raising concerns that the legislation is too extreme and will alienate female voters. The GOP-controlled House will vote on a proposed 20-week abortion ban next Thursday -- the 42nd anniversary of Roe v. Wade.... The legislation has passed the House for the past two years and was expected to have broad support in the 114th Congress, particularly as Republicans have set their sights on later abortions as an area where they believe they can advance their agenda." ...

... Lauren French & Jake Sherman of Politico have more on the pushback against the bill.

Almost Funny. So the GOP, which hopes to lose its well-deserved image as the White Man's Party is losing the support of women with their barefoot-&-pregnant program & of Hispanics with their deport-'em-all appropriations bill. Now, ha ha, their worried about expanding their appeal to black Americans:

... AP: "Eager to attract more minority voters, some "Republicans are worried that their party's near-certain candidate for a House seat in New York City could become the latest drag on GOP diversity efforts. Daniel Donovan seems sure to become the Republican nominee in a special election in the 11th congressional district, which covers Staten Island and a sliver of Brooklyn. Donovan ... is also the prosecutor who presented evidence to the grand jury that decided against charging a white police officer in last July's chokehold death of Eric Garner, an unarmed black suspect."

GOP Presidential Hopeful Makes up Stuff. In another attack on Social Security, Congressional Republicans have created a "new rule" that would disallow routine transfers from the Social Security retirement trust fund to the SSI disability program unless the transfers are balanced with new revenues (which the majority GOP Congress won't pass) or benefits cuts. Sen. Rand Paul is out in the hinterlands (New Hampshire, by chance, which just coincidentally is the first state to hold a presidential primary) to bolster their case, claiming that too many people on SSI disability are lazy fraudsters:

Over half the people on disability are either anxious or their back hurts. Join the club. Who doesn't get up a little anxious for work every day and their back hurts? Everybody over 40 has a little back pain. -- Rand Paul, January 14

Politifact: "The numbers don't add up. The two broader disability categories that include back pain ('diseases of the musculoskeletal system') and anxiety disorders ('mental disorders - other') don't even equal close to 50 percent, let alone those two ailments by themselves. Paul's quip might make for a good soundbite, but it's not rooted in reality. We rate the statement False."

Michael Schmidt & Susanne Craig of the New York Times: "A delegation of American legislators led by Senator Patrick J. Leahy arrived in Cuba on Saturday to discuss greater cooperation and remaining areas of disagreement, the first congressional delegation to visit the island nation since President Obama announced last month that he was restoring full diplomatic ties with it."

... Erica Orden of the Wall Street Journal: "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo is expected to announce in his state-of-the-state address on Wednesday that he will lead a trade mission to Cuba in the coming months...."

Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post: "The tussle [over President Obama's nomination of Antonio Weiss to a top Treasury post] sent [a] ... signal ... of how [Elizabeth] Warren intends to wield her growing clout. It showed that she and her brand of populism are forces to be reckoned with -- not only by Obama and his team, but also by the Democrats' likely 2016 presidential nominee Hillary Rodham Clinton.... Warren wants to make sure that Wall Street-aligned figures who have shaped the Clinton and Obama brand of economic policy for the past quarter-century, going back to former Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin, are not the only ones at the oval mahogany table."

Adam McDonald of KMOV St. Louis: "St. Ann[, Missouri,] Police apologized to a college student after they admitted to causing severe injuries to his face after accusing him of a crime he didn't commit on Thursday. Police were in pursuit of Anton Simmons, who had 17 warrants our for his name, when 22-year-old Joseph Swink crashed his car trying to avoid the police pursuit on Interstate 70.... Swink is an accounting student at UMSL with no criminal record and was on his way home from an internship when he was accidentally involved in the pursuit." CW: How were the cops to know? Swink is black. So he "looked guilty." ...

... CW: Oh, I must be wrong. Aviva Shen of Think Progress: "While the St. Ann Police Department is apologizing, they say the mistaken identity has 'zero to do about race.'"

Maureen Dowd on "Selma": "There was no need for [director Ava] DuVernay to diminish L.B.J., given that the Civil Rights Movement would not have advanced without him.... 'This is art; this is a movie; this is a film,' DuVernay said [to Gwen Ifill of PBS]. 'I'm not a historian. I'm not a documentarian.' The 'Hey, it's just a movie' excuse doesn't wash.... The truth is dramatic and fascinating enough. Why twist it? On matters of race -- America's original sin -- there is an even higher responsibility to be accurate. DuVernay had plenty of vile white villains -- including one who kicks a priest to death in the street -- and they were no doubt shocking to the D.C. school kids. There was no need to create a faux one." ...

... Contra Dowd (and me), Rep, John Lewis is a Los Angeles Times op-ed: "... this movie is being weighed down with a responsibility it cannot possibly bear. It's portrayal of President Lyndon B. Johnson's role in the Selma marches has been called into question.... Were any of the Selma marches the brainchild of President Johnson? Absolutely not.... I know. I was there. Don't get me wrong, in my view, Johnson is one of this country's great presidents, but he did not direct the civil rights movement." ...

... Here's the WashPo op-ed by Joseph Califano, who claims, based on a conversation between LBJ & Dr. King, which the President taped, that "Selma was LBJ's idea."

... Robin Pogrebin of the New York Times: "Even as the film 'Selma' has recreated the civil rights march to Montgomery for moviegoers, the New-York Historical Society is about to present images of the event captured by someone who was actually there. The exhibition, 'Freedom Journey 1965,' features photographs by Stephen Somerstein, who traveled to Alabama to document the march as a student in City College of New York's night school, where he was picture editor of his student newspaper. Over the five-day, 54-mile march, Mr. Somerstein took about 400 photographs of participants, from spectators who lined the rural roads to whites who heckled the marchers to leaders like the Rev. Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. and Rosa Parks." More info. here.

God News

CW: You'll never, never ever guess what book some Mississippi lawmakers want to designate as the official state book. Here's a "Wheel of Fortune" hint: H _ _ y  B _ _ _ e. ...

... Via Steve Benen.: "If this sounds at all familiar, Louisiana very nearly made the [same move] ... last year, but backed off once the bill's sponsor acknowledged some 'constitutional problems.'"

... Speaking of Louisiana & Separation of Church & State. Julie O'Donoghue of the Times-Picayune: "A group of religious leaders has scheduled a prayer rally at Southern University to rival Gov. Bobby Jindal's religious gathering -- officially called The Response -- at LSU. The prayer rally at Southern University will take place ... on the same day, Jan. 24, as Jindal's event at the Peter Maravich Assembly Center (PMAC) on LSU's campus. The Southern gathering is being called the 'Prayer Rally for the Soul of Louisiana.' Organizers of the Southern event has said they will focus on Louisiana's mass incarceration rate, Medicaid expansion and the state's failing education system. The list of issues may be a personal critique of Jindal's tenure as governor." CW: Yeah, maybe. Via Benen. ...

... GOP Presidential Hopeful Makes up Stuff. Speaking of Louisiana & Stupid Bobby Jindal Tricks. Paul Singer of Religion News Service: "When a Fox News 'expert' claimed non-Muslims are not welcome in some European cities, Britain's prime minister 'thought it must be April Fools' Day.' But the Louisiana governor's planned speech repeats the charge.... An advance text of Jindal's speech, circulated by his office, warns that Islamic radicals are fomenting anti-Western sentiment in 'no-go zones' where they rule themselves by Islamic religious law, not the laws of their host nations." CW: Or maybe this story should go under "Presidential Race" below.

Greg Horton of Religion News Service: "On the eve of Martin Luther King Jr. Day, many Oklahoma pastors will preach not in robes, but hooded sweatshirts, or hoodies, to protest a proposed state bill that would ban a mask, hood, or covering of the face in public under certain conditions."

Sorry I didn't link this sooner. Emma Margolin of NBC News: "For those anxiously awaiting the nation's next religious freedom showdown, look no further than Atlanta, where a growing controversy is currently unfolding over the recent dismissal of Fire Rescue Chief Kelvin Cochran, who last year wrote and distributed a self-published book that espoused anti-gay views." ...

... New York Times Editors: "Unfortunately, Georgia's lawmakers are ... considering for the second year in a row a 'religious-freedom' bill that, like others around the country, would do little more than provide legal cover for anti-gay discrimination. The First Amendment already protects religious freedom. Nobody can tell Mr. Cochran what he can or cannot believe. If he wants to work as a public official, however, he may not foist his religious views on other city employees who have the right to a boss who does not speak of them as second-class citizens."

Yonat Shimron of Religion News Service: "Hundreds of Duke students rally with Muslims at Friday's call to prayer.... The gathering ... was quiet and peaceful, and emerged spontaneously after Duke University officials on Thursday abruptly reversed their decision to broadcast the Muslim 'adhan,' or call to prayer, from the bell tower atop its iconic chapel."

The story here, by Zack Ford of Think Progress, is that this Kentucky state senator "wants [the school districts] to pay students $2,500 if they see a transgender person in the 'wrong' [school] bathroom." So, okay, incredibly stupid law.

Presidential Race

Hypocrisy, Thy Middle Name Is Mitt. (Thy First Name is Willard.) Rory Carroll of the Guardian: "Mitt Romney has cast himself as a champion of the poor and the underdog in his first public comments since revealing another potential presidential run.... 'Under President Obama the rich have gotten richer, income inequality has gotten worse and there are more people in poverty in American than ever before,' Romney said." ...

... Say What? Seema Mehta & Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times: "Mitt Romney's new focus on poverty has many allies baffled. "At one point [during the 2012 election cycle], he appeared to dismiss concerns about the 'very poor' because, he said, they were aided by a safety net that could be repaired if necessary. He was caught on video telling donors that 47% of voters were unavailable to him because they were dependent on the government. After the election, he blamed President Obama giving 'gifts' to black, Latino and young voters for his loss." ...

... The Washington Post story, by Dan Balz & Philip Rucker, is here. CW: The Post's headline -- "Romney, moving toward 2016 run, outlines vision to eradicate poverty" -- is crap. From the Guardian's & Post's reporting, as far as I can tell, there's no "outline"; just a remark that, you know, poverty is bad, & it's all Obama's fault. The actual "outline" goes something like this:

Pass progressive tax reform -- the richer you are,
     the greater the cut.
Eliminate corporate taxes.
Cut regulations on business.
Rename EPA: Environmental Pollution Agency.
Subsidize private industry, private schools.
Kill RomneyC ObamaCare.
Cut all social programs/"hammocks."
Appoint justices & judges who understand that
     corporations are people, my friend.

 ... I see Steve M. & I are on the same page: Romney is "saying that the same policies the right has always advocated are still the best policies -- and those, of course, would be huge cuts in social programs, tax cuts (primarily benefiting the rich), and significantly curtailed government regulation. For the good of the poor!... The right isn't conceding anything. It's just finding a new route to the same old endpoint: Cut taxes, cut spending, cut regulation, repeat ad infinitum." ...

CW: Steve & I are not making this up. It come's from the horse's mouth (no, not Rafalca's):

[Romney] cited former president Lyndon B. Johnson's War on Poverty half a century ago. Johnson's intentions were good, he said, but his policies had not worked. He argued that Republicans must persuade voters that conservative policies can 'end the scourge of poverty' in America.

Michael Crowley of Politico: "As Mitt Romney's supporters push the idea that the 2012 Republican nominee might run for president again, one of their core talking points is that Romney was a foreign policy prophet in the last campaign. His vindication on several scores, they argue, gives him a rationale to run again -- and a leg up on his potential Republican rivals.... But, as Democrats point out, any losing candidate can cherry-pick a few issues that later broke his way. And Romney's batting average was hardly perfect. Nor do bragging rights on a few specific issues necessarily translate to a popular foreign policy vision overall." ...

... CW: Nobody seems to say this, but it would have been a diplomatic disaster for the POTUS to offend Putin when the U.S. was pretending, for self-interested reasons, that he was one of our BFFs. You make the kinds of statements Romney made in 2012 about Russia after a crisis has occurred, not while you're trying to prevent it. When you're trying to get people (including radical extremists) to act responsibly, you don't insult them. Had Romney won the election, his foreign policy remarks would have hurt more than helped American interests. The idea that Obama had no idea there were extremists roaming the Middle East is ludicrous.

Missed This One. Tim Alberta of the National Journal (January 15): "Ben Carson -- a Washington outsider, a world-renowned neurosurgeon, a favorite among tea-party insurgents -- had a message Thursday for the Republican Party's most influential establishment figures: I'm not 'crazy.' Speaking to the Republican National Committee's winter meeting, Carson tried to challenge the caricature of him as a right-wing zealot by addressing -- one by one -- many of the individual controversies that have surrounded him, and dismissing them as lies from 'the liberal media.' Carson defended, among other things, his statements about Obamacare being the worst thing since slavery; comparing present-day America to Nazi Germany; and calling last year's Veterans Affairs scandal 'a gift from God' because it revealed holes in the system.... Still, the significant time devoted to explaining and debunking these incidents suggests Carson is keenly aware of the damage they could do to his White House run."

News Ledes

Los Angeles Times: "An Indonesian firing squad executed six convicted drug traffickers early Sunday, sparking condemnations from human rights groups and foreign leaders. The Netherlands, Indonesia's former colonial ruler, said it would withdraw its ambassador and Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff said she was 'outraged and dismayed' after Dutch and Brazilian nationals were among those put to death just after midnight in the center of Java, Indonesia’s most populous island."

The Commentariat -- Jan. 17, 2015

Internal links removed.

White House: "In this week's address, the President recounted the stories of letter writers from around the country who will be joining him when he delivers his annual State of the Union Address this Tuesday":

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to decide whether all 50 states must allow gay and lesbian couples to marry. The court's announcement made it likely that it would resolve one of the great civil rights questions of the age before its current term ends in June. The justices ducked the issue in October, refusing to hear appeals from rulings allowing same-sex marriage in five states. That surprise action delivered a tacit victory for gay rights, immediately expanding the number of states with same-sex marriage to 24 from 19, along with the District of Columbia." ...

... The Washington Post story, by Robert Barnes, is here. ...

... Sahil Kapur of TPM: "The Obama administration will formally ask the Supreme Court to 'make marriage equality a reality for all Americans' in a landmark case. In a statement issued on Friday, U.S. Attorney General Eric Holder said the Justice Department will file a friend-of-the-court brief calling for gay and lesbian Americans across the country to be able to marry." Here's Holder's statement. ...

... An analysis by Lyle Denniston of ScotusBlog is here. ...

... Steve Sanders in ScotusBlog: "Let's be clear -- the marriage bans are about animus.... Spend a few minutes browsing news databases for coverage of the mini-DOMA campaigns and it confirms what you knew but may have forgotten: the campaigns were substantially characterized by negative code words, moral judgment, and disparagement (often implicit, sometimes explicit) of gays' dignity.... The question of animus will be prominent -- perhaps pivotal -- in this final phase of marriage litigation."

Robert O'Harrow, et al., of the Washington Post: "Attorney General Eric H. Holder Jr. on Friday barred local and state police from using federal law to seize cash, cars and other property without proving that a crime occurred. Holder's action represents the most sweeping check on police power to confiscate personal property since the seizures began three decades ago as part of the war on drugs.... Holder's decision follows a Washington Post investigation published in September that found that police have made cash seizures worth almost $2.5 billion from motorists and others without search warrants or indictments since the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.... Last Friday, Sens. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) and Mike Lee (R-Utah), along with Reps. F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. (R-Wis.) and John Conyers Jr. (D-Mich.), signed a letter calling on Holder to end Equitable Sharing." Thanks to Haley S. for the link. ...

... CW: I doubt Holder would have taken this step if not for the WashPo series. Journalism matters. ...

... Not to mention John Oliver, who took up the issue in October:

... The Justice Department's press release is here. ...

... Andy Cash of Gawker: "Holder's decision won't end civil forfeiture entirely, however: many states have their own forfeiture laws, and the DOJ will still allow for the seizure of things like weapons and child porn, and in other situations when 'public safety is at risk' or there is clear evidence of criminal activity, the Post notes. But many of those state laws don't direct property back to police departments, as the federal policy does, but deposit it in the state's general fund instead -- hopefully narrowing the possibility that cops will take some guys Hummer just because it would look bitchin' with the PD logo on it." ...

... Katie Zavadski of New York: "Unsurprisingly, states that don't funnel seized cash back into law enforcement tend to have fewer forfeiture-related scandals."

Nicholas Watt of the Guardian: "Barack Obama and David Cameron struck different notes on surveillance powers after the president conceded that there is an important balance to be struck between monitoring terror suspects and protecting civil liberties. As Cameron warned the internet giants that they must do more to ensure they do not become platforms for terrorist communications, the US president said he welcomed the way in which civil liberties groups hold them to account by tapping them on the shoulder." ...

... Jerome Cartillier of AFP: "US President Barack Obama on Friday urged European governments to try to better assimilate their Muslim minority populations as they respond to extremist attacks like last week's shootings in Paris." ...

... The press conference was pretty interesting. You might want to listen to it while you're washing your socks:

... Matt Apuzzo & Steve Erlanger of the New York Times: In the wake of the Paris terrorist attacks, there is a great deal of opposition in France to the government's adopting a version of the U.S. Patriot Act. CW: From the report, something that went over my head in the President's remarks during the joint presser:

Mr. Obama said Friday that while violent extremism had 'metastasized' and was 'widespread,' he added, 'I do not consider it an existential threat.' That is a marked contrast from the language used after the attacks in 2001, when Condoleezza Rice, the White House national security adviser at the time, said, 'There is no longer any doubt that today America faces an existential threat to our security.'

The Poor Get Poorer. Motoko Rich of the New York Times: "Just over half of all students attending public schools in the United States are now eligible for free or reduced-price lunches, according to a new analysis of federal data. In a report released Friday by the Southern Education Foundation, researchers found that 51 percent of children in public schools qualified for the lunches in 2013, which means that most of them come from low-income families. By comparison, 38 percent of public school students were eligible for free or reduced-price lunches in 2000."

Amy Davidson of the New Yorker: "The planet is changing, and we are close to the time when trying to check climate change will be like trying to redirect El Niño with canoe paddles.... The new numbers are so striking that they surprised even climate scientists."

Theda Skocpol of Harvard University on the premise of the King v. Burwell plaintiffs that subsidies are not apply to states which use the federal exchange: "Throughout hard-fought debates about health reform, lawmakers in both parties looked for ways to save taxpayer money. Partial subsidies would have greatly reduced costs, so the total absence of this kind of analysis among the 68 prepared by CBO for the 111th Congress (and its continuing absence in reports done for the next Congress) is the best objective evidence we have that no one in Congress considered premium subsidies restricted to certain states to be either possible or desirable. If Congress intended to threaten states with withheld subsidies, nobody said so." CW: The intent of Congress -- if it can be established -- is supposed to govern the courts' interpretation of laws. We'll see if it matters to the Supremes. Via Paul Waldman.

A Short History of the Crazy. Jonathan Chait: "The 'reformocons,' the small coterie of pundit-adviser-activists trying to coax the Republican Party back toward sanity, may be doing the most politically significant work of any faction in America today. But the task of talking sense to the senseless is tricky business.... Peter Wehner, the former Karl Rove aide..., denounces Republicans who have taken 'an apocalyptic view of American life during the Obama era.'... Actually, an apocalyptic view of American life is the very thing that propelled conservatism to power in the first place." ...

... The Party of NObama. Sahil Kapur: "Newly invigorated congressional Republicans ended their joint House-Senate retreat ... divided on how to handle pressing problems like immigration, homeland security funding and a contingency on health care.... The only thing uniting them was their opposition to President Barack Obama." ...

... Things might have worked out better if Speaker Boehner had not been so busy with more important things. Rebecca Nelson of the National Journal: "As soon as President Obama walked into a school in Knoxville, Tenn., last week and announced his ambitious community-college program, John Boehner knew it was trouble. So he did what any conservative, 65-year-old lawmaker would do: He compiled a series of Taylor Swift GIFs to spell out the problems of the plan.... The 12 GIFs, published on the speaker's website and emailed to reporters Friday morning, explain the GOP's case against Obama's proposal to make community college tuition-free." ...

... CW: Swift hasn't addressed the Boehner GIFs. She's been performing since she was about nine, so Swift herself hasn't gone to college. But she has supported schools & education through philanthropy & by, among other efforts, co-chairing the NEA's Read Across America Campaign. She might not be all that pleased to be used as a cudgel against helping millions of young Americans get a college education.

Inexcusable. Lori Aritani, et al., of the Washington Post: "It took Metro seven minutes to call 911 after a train stopped because of heavy smoke, and even then, officials did not report to emergency responders that passengers were trapped in a tunnel, according to federal safety investigators and reports from city officials and firefighters. When the first rescuers reached the platform at the L'Enfant Plaza Metro station, they had no idea that hundreds of Yellow Line passengers were gasping for breath, according to internal District documents."

No Prejudice Here. AP: "House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi this week appointed Rep. Andre Carson of Indiana[, a Muslim,] to the panel, which oversees the government's intelligence departments and activities. Much of the business that comes before the committee is classified. Anti-Muslim protests erupted on Twitter and other social media with complaints that exposing American secrets to Carson could be dangerous."

No Racism Here. Travis Gettys of the Raw Story: "Florida police department uses black men&'s mugshots for target practice." Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. ...

... Oliver Laughland of the Guardian expands on the story. Really, the cops think shooting at mugshots of real people who really live in the area is a swell practice. And don't worry -- sometimes they shoot at real white men, real Hispanics & real women. See, not racism.

Presidential Race

Dave Weigel: The GOP will sanction only nine presidential primary debates, and none of them will be on MSNBC. "Apart from bringing joy to every conservative, it was as [RNC Chair Reince] Priebus said -- he did not want debates to be steered by people who wanted to make Republicans look stupid." ...

... CW: Please, none of the GOP candidates needs MSNBC to make him (or her -- Carly Demon-Sheep Fiorina!) look stoopid.

Katie Zavadski: "Earlier this week, Mitt Romney launched a trial balloon for a third run at the presidency. In the days since, political commentators, GOP megadonors, and influential moguls have done more than just deflate it -- they've popped it loudly and watched the pieces fly all over the room. Romney will address GOP leaders at the Republican National Committee's winter meeting Friday night, but many influencers seem to have already made up their minds." ...

... Ditto Paul Waldman: "... within just a few days, the entire Republican world, from conservatives to moderates, from office-holders to pundits, from strategists to hangers-on, has turned on Romney with a spectacular fury.... Even Peggy Noonan, relentless chronicler of Americans' gut feelings and secret longings -- who on the eve of the 2012 election assured readers that Romney would win despite what the polls said because 'All the vibrations are right' -- has today [Friday] turned rather viciously on the man she used to hold in such high esteem."

... "The Tyranny of Celebrity." Dana Milbank: "The conservative editorialists were right to dread another election about Romneycare and the 47 percent. But why pick on Romney? Overall, 2016 is shaping up to be the year of the retreads: the reduce, reuse and recycle election."

Gail Collins assesses Rick Perry's presidential bona fides. Hilarity ensues. She also gets in a classic-Collins mention of the Mittster: "The man who drove to Canada with the family dog strapped to the car roof and the man who claims he shot a coyote while jogging." ...

... CW BTW: Unlike the dog-on-the-roof-of-the-car, there is good reason to believe that the coyote legend is a man-made myth.

** One Scary Dude Who Could Become President. Ian Millhiser lays out Rand Paul's alarming 19th-century plans for an "activist" Supreme Court -- one that would have "the Court to return to its self-appointed role as the vanguard against democracy." ...

... OR, as Charles Pierce puts it, Rand Paul "... would take us altogether back to the days of slave wages, child labor, unbridled carnage in the workplace, and legally enforced serfdom within the American corporation.... The current Supreme Court, John Roberts presiding, already is halfway there to meeting with Aqua Buddha on most of these issues." ...

... CW: While it's fair to suppose that neither the Fake Coyote Hunter nor the I-Am-Not-a-Scientist Man has sussed out the full-blown judicial philosophy that swirls beneath Aqua Buddha's wild toop, I believe that Perry & Rubio, as well as every one of the other likely GOP candidates, would comb the vast American wasteland for Sam Alito clones to fill the Court. It would take a Democratic-majority Senate with incredible resolve -- one we haven't seen since the Borking Era; ergo, Clarence Thomas -- to defend the Constitution. And even if such a Senate should return in 2016, it cannot reject all of a president's nominees; ergo, Anthony Kennedy & Nino Scalia. We're having our fun with Li'l Randy now, but how many soccer moms & factory workers do you suppose will pore over Ian Millhiser's writings before heading to the polls?

News Ledes

Orlando Sentinel: "Armed with a handgun and pockets full of ammunition, Jose Garcia Rodriguez walked into the Melbourne Square mall Saturday morning and shot his wife, another man, then himself, police say. The shooting left gunman Garcia Rodriguez, 57, of Palm Bay, and the other unidentified man dead, said Cmdr. Vince Pryce of Melbourne Police Department. Garcia Rodriguez's wife, 33-year-old Ida Garcia, survived and remains in good condition at a local hospital, Pryce said."

AP: "Greek police have detained four suspected terrorists, including one who could be the man wanted by Belgian authorities as an alleged ringleader of a jihadi cell, a police official told the Associated Press Saturday." ...

... AP: "Belgian authorities said Saturday that information sent to them from Athens so far has not indicated the people detained by police in Greece were involved in a Belgian jihadi cell."

AFP: "Pope Francis was forced Saturday to flee a fierce storm in the Philippines that killed a papal volunteer, cutting short a mercy mission to weeping survivors of a catastrophic super typhoon. Wearing a yellow plastic poncho to protect him from intense rain, Francis delivered an emotional mass to about 200,000 people in the typhoon-ravaged central Philippine city of Tacloban. However, plans to spend the entire day in Tacloban and nearby areas that were devastated by Super Typhoon Haiyan 14 months ago were ruined by another storm, forcing him to fly back to Manila at lunchtime."

The Commentariat -- Jan. 16, 2015

Internal links, photo removed.

NEW. Justin Gillis of the New York Times: "Last year was the hottest in earth's recorded history, scientists reported on Friday, underscoring scientific warnings about the risks of runaway emissions and undermining claims by climate-change contrarians that global warming had somehow stopped." ...

... Carl Zimmer of the New York Times: "A team of scientists, in a groundbreaking analysis of data from hundreds of sources, has concluded that humans are on the verge of committing unprecedented damage to the oceans and the animals living in them. 'We may be sitting on a precipice of a major extinction event,' said Douglas J. McCauley, an ecologist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and a co-author of the new research, which was published on Thursday in the journal Science."

Keeping America Stupid. Certainly we've had changes in our climate. I'll let the scientists debate the sources in their opinion of that change. But I think the real question is that every proposal we see out of the administration with regard to climate change means killing American jobs. -- Speaker John Boehner, Thursday

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) was asked the same question and did not answer it. (See also Joni Ernst, Alfred E. Neuman, below.)

Manu Raju of Politico: "President Barack Obama made clear Thursday in a closed-door session with Senate Democrats that he's prepared to veto hostile legislation from the GOP-controlled Congress, including an Iran sanctions package on the front-burner of Capitol Hill.... At the meeting, Obama, who has rarely used his veto pen in his six years in office, signaled he would do so repeatedly, including on GOP-sponsored legislation to build the Keystone XL oil pipeline.... White House officials confirmed the veto threat over the Iran bill but declined to comment further." ...

... Michael Shear of the New York Times: "President Obama and Senator Robert Menendez traded sharp words on Thursday over whether Congress should impose new sanctions on Iran while the administration is negotiating with Tehran about its nuclear program, according to two people who witnessed the exchange. In the course of the argument, which was described as tense but generally respectful, Mr. Obama vowed to veto legislation being drafted by Mr. Menendez, Democrat of New Jersey, and Senator Mark Kirk, Republican of Illinois, that would impose the sanctions before the multiparty talks are set to end this summer."

White House: "On January 15, 2015, President Obama travelled to Charmington's Café in North Baltimore, Maryland to talk about the workplace policies we need to help working Americans balance their careers with their needs of their families":

Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Freshman Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa) will deliver the Republican response to President Obama's State of the Union address next week. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) announced the news at a joint press conference with Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) during the GOP retreat at the Hershey Lodge.... She said voters sent her to the nation's capital with a mission to 'craft and implement good policies, good solutions which will enable to get America on a better path.'" Thanks to James S. for the link.

... CW: I wonder what Ernst's good solutions might be to the scientific bombshell that we're "on the precipice of a major extinction event" In September Jeff Spross of Think Progress reported, "On Sunday, the Republicans' Senate candidate from Iowa, Joni Ernst, joined the ranks of politicians who confess to not knowing the science of climate change, but remain happy declaring we need do nothing about it." One thing Ernst is sure about: "job-killing [EPA] regulations" have got to go. Okay, then. ...

     ... AND So What? Eric Bradner of CNN: According to the latest CNN/ORC poll, "57%, say global warming will not pose a serious threat to their way of life, while just 43% expect global warming to threaten them. Meanwhile, only 50% of Americans believe global warming is caused by man-made emissions, while 23% say it's caused by natural changes and 26% say it isn't a proven fact." ...

... Charles Pierce: "Joni Ernst is a box of rocks. She's a jumped-up state legislator whose worldview is that of somebody waiting on hold to speak to Steve Deace on the radio. This will be the case even if she manages to get through her 'response' next Tuesday night with more aplomb than those old has-beens, Jindal and Rubio. Resist any attempt to make a star out of this woman. Believe your own lying eyes. It's very important." Read the whole post. ...

... CW: Despite Pierce's prediction that Ernst is "not going to fall into the orchestra pit, the way Jindal and Rubio did," I'll bet no one is happier about this announcement than the folks at Saturday Night Live.

... Wait, Wait. Joni Ernst Is the Establishment SOTU Speaker. Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "Rep. Curt Clawson (R-Fla.) will deliver the Tea Party response to President Obama's State of the Union on Tuesday night. ...

... CW: Clawson is MY representative. His claim to fame? John Hudson of Foreign Policy: "In an intensely awkward congressional hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee on Thursday, freshman Rep. Curt Clawson misidentified two senior U.S. government officials as representatives of the Indian government.... The two officials, Nisha Biswal and Arun Kumar, are Americans who hold senior positions at the State Department and Commerce Department, respectively. Although both Biswal and Kumar were introduced as U.S. officials by the chairman of the Asia and Pacific subcommittee, Clawson repeatedly asked them questions about 'your country' and 'your government.'... During the hearing, he repeatedly touted his deep knowledge of the Indian subcontinent and his favorite Bollywood movies...." CW: I'll bet in his SOTU response, Clawson "misidentifies" Barack Obama as the Kenyan emperor.

     ... Less well-known: Last week, Clawson voted for Li'l Randy to be Speaker of the House.

Humberto Sanchez of Roll Call: "Republicans still don't have an exit strategy that will allow them to fund the Department of Homeland Security while canceling President Barack Obama's temporary administrative amnesty for millions of immigrants. The uncertainty over the future of the DHS funding measure -- which must be cleared by the end of next month or partially shut down the department -- sets up a tension with the message the GOP is seeking to send from their bicameral retreat that they intend to govern responsibly."

Two thoughtful columns on free speech, the first from Tim Egan & the second from Paul Waldman.

Tara Culp-Ressler of Think Progress: "For the first time in a decade, the number of people struggling to pay their medical bills has started to decline, according to a new survey released on Thursday by the Commonwealth Fund. The researchers attributed the historic drop to the number of people gaining insurance under the health care reform law.... In a press release, the researchers described the declines as 'remarkable.'"

Paul Krugman explains that the Swiss franc crisis "says is that you really, really shouldn't let yourself get too close to deflation -- you might fall in, and then it's extremely hard to get out. This is one reason that slashing government spending in a depressed economy is such a bad idea: It's not just the immediate cost in lost jobs, but the increased risk of getting caught in a deflationary trap." His warnings are a good example of why wags call economics "the dismal science."

Chris Geidner of BuzzFeed: "On Friday, the Supreme Court justices will be meeting to decide whether to hear a case -- or multiple cases -- challenging a ban on same-sex couples' marriages. This will be the second time the justices have considered whether to take any of the cases out of Kentucky, Michigan, Ohio, and/or Tennessee. When they did so on Jan. 9, they took no action on those cases, instead re-listing them for discussion on Friday." ...

... Tresa Baldas of the Detroit Free Press: "A federal judge [Thursday] gave 300 same-sex married couples in Michigan a much-anticipated legal blessing, saying the state must recognize their marriages because they were legally performed and have a 'fundamental right' to be recognized.... [Judge Mark]Goldsmith's ruling was in response to a lawsuit filed by eight same-sex couples who got married during a window of opportunity last March after a federal judge struck down Michigan's ban on same-sex marriage. Roughly 300 couples got married that day. The next day, a federal appeals court put the judge's decision that legalized gay marriage on hold, and the state has since refused to recognize the marriages."

Fat Leonard Cops a Plea. Craig Whitlock of the Washington Post: "A Malaysian defense contractor pleaded guilty Thursday in a corruption scandal of epic proportions, admitting that he bribed 'scores' of U.S. Navy officials with $500,000 in cash, six figures' worth of sex from prostitutes, lavish hotel stays, spa treatments, Cuban cigars, Kobe beef, Spanish suckling pigs and an array of other luxury goods. Leonard Glenn Francis, a businessman who charmed a generation of Navy officers while resupplying their ships in Asia, admitted in federal court in San Diego to presiding over a decade-long corruption scheme involving his Singapore-based firm, Glenn Defense Marine Asia.... Five current and former Navy officials have pleaded guilty so far, and prosecutors have made it clear they are targeting others. The Navy has also stripped security clearances from two admirals, including the chief of naval intelligence...."

Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post: "Freed from cumbersome requirements to obtain a Treasury Department license, individual Americans will be able to travel to Cuba provided they say the trip is intended to serve religious, educational or other approved purposes under the still-standing U.S. embargo. When they return, they can bring up to $400 in Cuban goods, including $100 worth of alcohol and tobacco. U.S. airlines will be allowed to fly scheduled routes to Cuba for the first time in decades." The new rules go into effect today.

God News, Friday Edition

Susan Svrluga & Michelle Boorstein of the Washington Post: "Duke University canceled plans Thursday to begin a weekly Muslim call to prayer from the campus chapel this week, an initiative that had set off debate on social media. A school spokesman and a Duke Muslim leader said that a serious and credible security threat played a role in the decision.... Franklin Graham, president of Samaritan's Purse and the Billy Graham Evangelistic Association, called on donors and alumni to withhold support from Duke until the policy was reversed. The hashtag #boycottduke spread quickly, and many of the reactions on Twitter referred to recent terrorist attacks, and interpreted it as an anti-Christian move."

Greg Botelho & Sunshine de Leon of CNN: "Weighing in on last week's terror in France and the debate over freedom of expression it stirred, Pope Francis said en route to the Philippines that killing 'in the name of God' is wrong, but it is also wrong to 'provoke' people by belittling their religion." ...

... CW: Tim Egan, cited above, calls the Pope's remarks "a step backwards," & I've seen headlines that suggest other commentators & reporters are interpreting Francis's remarks as endorsing a curb on freedom of speech. These interpreters are making the same mistake David Brooks did: they're confusing what is socially or morally acceptable with what is legally acceptable. The Westboro Church anti-gay rants are legally acceptable.

Carl Nolte of the San Francisco Chronicle: "Pope Francis says he will declare that Junipero Serra, one of the founders of modern California, is a Roman Catholic saint. Serra, who established nine of California's 21 Spanish missions, is both a revered and a controversial figure in the state's history."

Turns out a boy appropriately & coincidentally named Malarkey did not go to heaven & return, despite the claims in a best-selling book, which he supposedly co-authored, that he'd made the round trip.

Presidential Race

Dan Balz & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "Republican leaders on Friday plan to unveil new rules for presidential debates, marking the most aggressive effort yet by a national party committee to limit the number of forums and to shape the environment for the nominating season. Reacting to what many in the party concluded was a chaotic and ultimately costly series of debates in the 2012 campaign, a task force of the Republican National Committee has spent months seeking to devise a set of rules that will bring more order to the process." CW: That would be a shame.

Adios, Mofo. Katie Glueck of the Politico: "The Rick Perry era drew to a close in Texas on Thursday as the longest-serving governor in Lone Star State history bade farewell, delivering an address that was as much about his future as it was a reflection on the past. Perry, a likely Republican 2016 contender who was first sworn in as governor in 2000, sounded themes that he is expected to expand on in a future presidential bid. He touted Texas, under his leadership, as an engine of job growth, a model for the rest of the country and a beacon of optimism. Perry, who was initially a favorite of conservative Republicans in his ill-fated 2012 presidential bid, also signaled that he is no hardliner." ...

... One last time:

Dr. Ben Is Off His Meds Again. Alexandra Jaffe of CNN: "Physician Ben Carson on Thursday held up ISIS, a terrorist group that's beheaded multiple Americans, as an example for the United States during comments before the Republican National Committee. 'We've got ISIS. They've got the wrong philosophy, but they're willing to die for what they believe, while we are busily giving away every belief and every value for the sake of political correctness,' he said during his speech at the RNC's winter meeting. 'We have to change that.'" ...

... Here's more of Carson's speech, via Dan Balz & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post:

It's so important that we be the kind of people who are bold in our expressions. Don't be chicken livers.... We don't need to tinker around the edges. We need to turn the ship around. It is about to go over Niagara Falls and we've got people leaning over the edge saying there's a barnacle. We've got to turn the ship around. If we don’t do it, the barnacles won't matter. That means being bold. That means being dramatic.

... CW: According to Balz & Rucker, Carson implied ISIS was like the American Revolutionary army. When does a political candidate cross the line between laughable & dangerous? Jaffe writes that "It's that very penchant -- for frank and often controversial comments -- that has made him so popular with the GOP base...." If you follow the "logic" of his speech, he is urging Americans to take up arms against the government, behead a few people maybe.

Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "Former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina says she's 'very seriously considering running' for president in 2016, a move that could make her the highest-profile female in the Republican field. 'I think we need different experience, different perspective and a different voice,' she said in an interview on Fox Business Network's 'Cavuto.'" ... CW Note to Sunday morning bookers: It would be wrong to include this person in your panels when she's a potential political candidate -- or ever again.

News Ledes

New York Times: "Marilyn B. Tavenner, the administrator of the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services, who helped preside over the rollout of sweeping changes in the nation's health care system, said Friday that she was resigning.... Ms. Tavenner, who was at the center of the disastrous debut of the federal insurance marketplace in October 2013, had given no public indications that she would be stepping down."

Washington Post: John Kerry is making his 19th visit to Paris since he became Secretary of State; this time he came to mourn.

New York Times: "With a renovated death chamber, new training and a higher dose of drugs, Oklahoma on Thursday carried out its first execution since April, when the slipshod, prolonged killing of Clayton D. Lockett led the state to suspend lethal injections and change its procedures. 'Charles Frederick Warner was pronounced dead at 7:28 p.m.,' said Jerry Massie, a spokesman for the Oklahoma Corrections Department."

Guardian: "Police have arrested a dozen people suspected of helping the Islamist militant gunmen carry out last week's Paris killings, the city prosecutor's office said as the US secretary of state, John Kerry, arrived in France for talks. The arrests came after Belgian police killed two men who opened fired on them during one of about a dozen raids on Thursday against an Islamist group, while German police said they had arrested two people following a raid on 11 properties linked to radical Salafists." ...

     ... New York Times UPDATE: Make that two dozen plus.

... New York Times: "As Europe braces against potential terrorist attacks after violence in France and Belgium, the German police on Friday arrested two Turkish men suspected of having links to an organization supporting the militant Islamic State and other radical groups fighting in Syria."