The Commentariat -- Nov. 8, 2014
Internal links removed.
(From Friday's News Ledes.) Friday Afternoon News Dump. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Friday agreed to hear a new challenge to the Affordable Care Act, potentially imperiling President Obama's signature legislative achievement two years after it survived a different challenge in the court by a single vote.The case, King v. Burwell, No. 14-114, concerns tax subsidies that are central to the operation of the health care law.... It takes only four votes to add a case to the Supreme Court's docket. They may have come from the four members of the court who were ready in 2012 to strike down the Affordable Care Act: Justices Antonin Scalia, Anthony M. Kennedy, Clarence Thomas and Samuel A. Alito Jr. Once again, it seems, the fate of the law may rest with Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr." Thanks to Victoria D. for the lead. ...
... Lyle Denniston of ScotusBlog: "Rather than waiting until Monday to announce its action, which would be the usual mode at this time in the Court year, the Justices released the order granting review of King v. Burwell not long after finishing their closed-door private Conference. By adding the case to its decision docket at this point, without waiting for further action in lower federal courts, as the Obama administration had asked, the Court ensured that it would rule on the case during the current Term. If it decides to limit the subsidies to the state-run 'exchanges,' it is widely understood that that outcome would crash the ACA's carefully balanced economic arrangements. The Court's Friday orders are here...." ...
... Noah Feldman in Bloomberg View provides a good background summary. Plus: "For [Scalia, Thomas, Alito & Kennedy,], a vote to take the case now is a strong signal that they would like to block the exchanges and sink Obamacare with this second legal torpedo.... What seems almost certain is that the other conservative justices have decided to put Roberts to the test.... Its déjà vu all over again." ...
... Moops! Charles Pierce: "This was already a pretty terrible week. It just got worse. Sociopathy gets its day in court, riding on the backs of the Moops." ...
... By way of explanation:
... Scott Lemieux in LG&M: "It's not every day that the Roberts Court can be worse than even I expect, but here we are: the Court is about to rule that the Moops invaded Spain. It's not 100% that King v. Burwell will be overruled, I guess, but I don't know why else they would preempt the Halbig en banc hearing otherwise.... People with strong stomachs can look at Johnathan Adler, in his palpable excitement about millions of people about to be stripped of their health insurance, claiming that this case is about ... deferring to Congress." CW: I did look at Adler's piece. It's as sickening as Lemieux lets on. Until I realized that Adler is just George Costanza in disguise. ...
... Steve M.: "Politicized Supreme Court plans to murder ObamaCare soon so it won't be an issue in 2016." ...
... Supreme Death Squad. Ian Millhiser of Think Progress: "In an interview with Talking Points Memo's Sahil Kapur, attorney Michael Carvin claimed that the justices aren't 'going to give much of a damn about what a bunch of Obama appointees on' the lower court that withdrew its decision defunding Obamacare decide. He added that he does not expect to 'lose any Republican-appointed judges' votes' on that lower court, and that he expects Republicans on the Supreme Court to fall in line as well. Though the Court's decision to take this case cannot be explained under the Court's normal practices, Carvin may be correct that it can be explained for purely partisan reasons. Should the justices ultimately side with the doubtful legal arguments raised by the plaintiffs, however, they should have no illusions about what they will achieve. Thousands of Americans will die unnecessarily if the plaintiffs win this lawsuit."
... CW: Everybody Take a Deep Breath. First, let's acknowledge that the five conservative justices on the Court are corrupt. By "corrupt," I don't mean that Nino is taking money under the bench from David Koch (though he is). I mean that they corrupt their interpretations of the law & the Constitution to fit their antidiluvian ideology. Second, let's assume (though this is not necessarily what will happen) that all five conservative justices side with the plaintiffs. This would ostensibly deprive affordable coverage to every eligible person living in a state that opted to use the federal exchange.
... But two can play this game. The language in question is four little words, "established by the state" in one obscure section of a 2,000+-page law, language that is clearly at odds with many other provisions of this complicated law, with the intents of the lawmakers themselves & with the IRS's interpretation of the law. (Or, as Steve Benen puts it, "I have never seen anything quite so spectacularly stupid as this case.") Okay. If the Court rules the federally-run exchanges violate that obscure clause, then it's up to the affected states to "establish" their own exchanges. How hard is that? Given all the difficulties that both states & the federal government had in setting up & running the exchanges, it sounds really, really hard. But it isn't. The software is already there. Because the federally-produced & operated software accommodates each individual state's insurance providers & clients, it is state-specific. It isn't just a one-size-fits-all federal mega-site. So the affected states can simply "establish" their own exchanges by copying the federal code or slapping the state seal on the home page. Or something like that.
... Of course some red states may not do that, so beneficiaries in those states will suffer. However, taking tax breaks from constituents isn't easy, even for Republicans. So all but the most hardened red-state governors & legislatures will accommodate an adverse Court ruling. Yes, our wonderful GOP Congress also could get into the act by legislating out the tax subsidies, but as long as we have a Democratic president, that won't likely happen either. Go ahead, GOP Death Squad: shut down the government again in an election year for the purpose of killing sick people. That's a campaign winner. ...
... This is a stupid case on the merits, & the government should continue to fight tooth-&-nail for its/our side. But a Supreme Court loss here is more of an annoying setback than a catastrophe, if our elected leaders have any sense. As long as the Supreme Court doesn't have an army to enforce its unreasonable opinions, the states & the federal government can cooperate to establish workarounds.
Julie Davis & Matt Apuzzo of the New York Times: "President Obama will nominate Loretta E. Lynch, the top federal prosecutor in Brooklyn, to be the next attorney general, reaching outside his inner circle to fill a key post, the White House said Friday. If confirmed, Ms. Lynch, 55, would be the first African-American woman to be the nation's top law enforcement official. Mr. Obama will announce her selection at a ceremony Saturday...." ...
... Ian Millhiser profiles Lynch's career. Here's a nice tidbit: "Lynch's office is currently prosecuting Rep. Michael Grimm (R-NY), a former FBI agent charged with 20 counts of fraud, perjury and other alleged crimes related to allegations that he hid more than $1 million in gross receipts while he ran a New York restaurant." CW: Grimm, as you know, won re-election against a complete doofus Democratic candidate: a perfect exemplar of the Democrats' moral bankruptcy I briefly discuss below.
Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "President Obama firmly rejected advice from top congressional Republicans on Friday that he delay his promised executive action on immigration reform, dismissing calls from critics inside and outside his party to allow Congress to debate the issue next year. Over a two-hour lunch..., House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio), Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and their lieutenants warned Obama that his acting alone on immigration would spoil chances for bipartisan agreement on other issues in the new GOP-controlled Congress.... Obama shot back that he intended to proceed, saying that he had already waited almost two years for congressional action on immigration." ...
... Here's a video of President Obama's public remarks, where of course we don't get to hear him telling McConnell, Boehner & Co., Ltd., that he's not intimidated by their threats:
... Paul Waldman: "Just a couple of days after the election, Boehner is already preparing excuses for why he failed. Why didn't immigration reform pass? Because Barack Obama is a big meanie!" ...
... Dana Milbank: "The president declined to act on immigration before the election. But all the Democratic Senate incumbents in red states that he was trying to protect lost anyway on Tuesday. There is evidence that the combination of low Hispanic turnout and lower Hispanic margins for Democrats doomed some Democratic candidates, including Charlie Crist, who lost his gubernatorial race in Florida, and perhaps Sen. Mark Udall, who lost his reelection bid in Colorado." ...
... Damned if He Does, Damned if He Doesn't. CW: It's worth noting, as Milbank does not, that those red-state Democrats begged President Obama not to take action on immigration before the election. In this regard, & in staying out of all but the bluest of states, the President did what the campaigns asked him to do. Had he not done so, & had these same Democrats lost their races as likely they would have, the blame would go to Obama for refusing to "help his party." It's pretty hard to blame him now for acceding to the calculations of dumb campaign gurus (who, as Whyte O. pointed out the other day, are getting paid handsomely for their bad advice). ...
... Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: "For all the finger-pointing among Democrats over Tuesday’s election calamity, the White House, Congress and party establishment all share responsibility for weaknesses that the defeats laid bare, critics say, and should confront them as the 2016 contest takes shape. The problems are fundamental, involving questions of where Democrats focus their party-building efforts, what voters they talk to, and most crucial, what they say to those voters. Missing this year, many Democrats say, was a broad economic message to enthuse supporters and convert some independents." ...
... George Lakoff in TruthOut suggests what's wrong with the Democrats' strategy & what would work better. (CW: See also Elizabeth Warren's column linked below for an example.) ...
... CW: What's wrong with the Democrats' strategy -- and this is evident in Milbank's Complaint -- is that it's morally bankrupt. As Lakoff points out, it concentrates on targeting specific interest groups without providing a big-picture progressive worldview. But that would be too scary, because some of the policies that flow from that worldview -- like immigration reform -- are, oooh, controversial. If Democrats actually had a moral compass, & only some do, they would be a lot more comfortable in pushing controversial policies & in explaining to voters why these polices were right for everybody. ...
Big money wins regardless of which party wins the election. In fact, the more money that is spent, the greater the dependence that is created. -- Rep. John Sarbannes (D-Maryland) ...
... Joe Nocera: "Big contributors want something for their money.... There are two other reasons big money is corrosive to our politics. One is that the need to raise money has become close to all-consuming." The other is that people see no reason to vote when they know that whoever is elected, s/he will be corrupt. ...
...Sen. Elizabeth Warren in the Washington Post: "Before leaders in Congress and the president get caught up in proving they can pass some new laws, everyone should take a skeptical look at whom those new laws will serve. At this very minute, lobbyists and lawyers are lining up by the thousands to push for new laws -- laws that will help their rich and powerful clients get richer and more powerful.... There's no shortage of work that Congress can do, but the agenda shouldn't be drawn up by a bunch of corporate lobbyists and lawyers." CW: Now try to imagine Hillary Clinton writing such a column. Not going to happen. ...
... Gail Collins: "The Keystone XL oil pipeline is so popular! Ever since the Republicans won control of the Senate, it's become the Taylor Swift of political issues.... It's hard to figure where all the enthusiasm comes from.... The only people who would seem to have an intense practical interest in which way this plays out would be Nebraskans who will have to live with the pipeline, and the people who control the tar sands land in Canada. That group happens to include the famous campaign-contributing Koch brothers. So, question answered."
Thomas Mann & Norm Ornstein in the Washington Post: "The pragmatic desire of mainstream Republicans to transcend their 'party of no' label and show that they can actually govern will clash with the forces that continue to pull the GOP to the right and oppose anything the president does. This fight within the party will define the new Congress nearly as much as the battles with a Democratic president." CW: This is a comprehensive piece, replete with details & examples of pitfalls & past pratfalls, so well worth a read.
Lynn Paltrow & Jeanne Flavin in a New York Times op-ed: "WITH the success of Republicans in the midterm elections and the passage of Tennessee's anti-abortion amendment, we can expect ongoing efforts to ban abortion and advance the 'personhood' rights of fertilized eggs, embryos and fetuses.... Anti-abortion measures pose a risk to all pregnant women, including those who want to be pregnant." The authors recount horror stories of women arrested or killed because police &/or judges thought they might have planned or attempted to terminate their pregnancies. "... it was precisely the legal arguments for recriminalizing abortion that were used to strip them of their rights to dignity and liberty in the context of labor and delivery."
November Elections
Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "Republicans beat Democrats at their own ground game."
M. J. Lee of Politico: "California Democratic Rep. Scott Peters has defeated Republican challenger Carl DeMaio in one of the most competitive House races in the country. The Associated Press called the race Friday night, nearly 72 hours after polls closed in the San Diego-area district. Peters, who trailed DeMaio in early returns, currently leads the Republican by 4,491 votes, 51.2 percent to 48.8 percent."
Nathaniel Herz of the Alaska Dispatch News: "The number of uncounted votes in Alaska's tightly fought U.S. Senate race grew by 21,000 between Wednesday and Friday -- and more than 5,000 of those were votes that hadn't been predicted in early accounts of the number of ballots outstanding.... More than 40,000 ballots will likely be counted starting Tuesday, though the number will probably climb even more before then. To win, [Sen. Mark] Begich [D] would have to reverse election night trends and win a substantial majority -- though his allies have pointed out that in the count following Election Day in 2008, Begich overcame a 3,000 vote deficit to Republican Ted Stevens and ultimately won by 4,000 votes."
Alex DeMarban of the Alaska Dispatch News: "If voting trends hold true in Alaska's 40 districts, gubernatorial candidate Bill Walker will keep his lead after nearly 24,000 absentee and early votes are counted starting Tuesday, according to an analysis of voting trends and districts. But that's just part of the picture. There are likely gobs more votes to be counted beyond those.... On top of that, a political science professor with the University of Alaska Anchorage suggests the trends that favored Walker may not hold because an extra-large number of the uncounted ballots are from Republican voters...." CW: Walker is a Republican, running on a "unity" ticket with a Democratic candidate for lieutenant governor against current GOP governor Sean Parnell.
(From Yesterday's News Ledes.) Laura Vozzella of the Washington Post: "Republican Ed Gillespie conceded to Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.) on Friday, concluding a closely watched race that turned into a surprise nail-biter as a wave of support for GOP candidates swept the county."
Presidential Race
Erik Wemple of the Washington Post: "Following an ABC News report that Fox News contributor Ben Carson is set to air an hourlong ad/documentary* 'introducing himself to the American people' as part of a 2016 Republican presidential bid, Fox News has cut ties with him, according to a Fox spokeswoman." CW: And you thought Fox "News" wasn't ethical.
Beyond the Beltway
Jessica Roy of New York: "Law enforcement and local news reporters in Minneapolis are absolutely outraged that the Minnesota city's mayor, Betsy Hodges, dared to pose with a convicted felon and flash 'gang signs' in the resulting photo. But did she actually throw up gang signs, and is this guy actually a known gang member? Nope and nope!" Also, funny tweet at the bottom of the piece.
News Lede
New York Times: "North Korea has released two Americans who have been held in the country for extended periods, after the director of national intelligence, James R. Clapper Jr., flew to the country on a secret mission and secured their freedom. In a terse statement issued Saturday by Mr. Clapper's office, the Americans -- Kenneth Bae and Matthew Todd Miller -- were described as 'on their way home, accompanied by D.N.I. Clapper.' Officials said they were likely to land on the West Coast, where Mr. Bae and Mr. Miller both live, some time on Saturday night."