The Commentariat -- August 28, 2014
Internal links removed.
This Is a Big Fucking Deal. Margot Sanger-Katz & Kevin Quealy of the New York Times: "Every year for the last six years in a row, the Congressional Budget Office has reduced its estimate for how much the federal government will need to spend on Medicare in coming years. The latest reduction came in a report from the budget office on Wednesday morning. The changes are big. The difference between the current estimate for Medicare’s 2019 budget and the estimate for the 2019 budget four years ago is about $95 billion." The CBO report is here (pdf). ...
... Paul Waldman in the Washington Post: "... all the 'deficit hawks' out there who are deeply concerned about too much borrowing and the terrible choices our grandchildren will confront might want to write a letter of thanks to one Barack Hussein Obama.... The reasons for the slowdown [in the deficit] in Medicare spending are complicated. But a big part of it is -- you guessed it -- the Affordable Care Act. The ACA has found direct savings in Medicare with things like cuts to some provider payments.... Medicare is still the biggest driver of future deficits, but the next time you hear a conservative say we have to 'rein in entitlements,' you can remind them that nothing any president has done to achieve that goal has been nearly as effective as the reforms contained within the hated Obamacare." ...
... Sorry, Paul. Here's a winger -- Romina Boccia, a "fellow in federal budgetary affairs" for the Heritage Foundation -- who wants you to know, in her screaming headline, that the CBO report shows that the budget deficit for "Just This Year Is Huge," & in her post asserts that it's proof of the need for "entitlement reform." ...
... CW: I believe I'll have a small slice of humble pie on this myself. While wonks & pundits (at least on the left) are giving Obama the credit for this, our current Ambassador to China & former Sen. Max Baucus (ConservaD-Mont.), along with annoying former Sen. Kent Conrad (ConservaD-N.D.) were the U.S. senators insisting that the ACA be "revenue-neutral." So thanks, Max & Kent. Sorry I repeatedly suggested (as best I can recall) you were anal-retentive jerks. ...
... MEANWHILE, I see that Annoying Kent -- who, surprise, surprise, is now a lobbyist -- is in the news complaining that President Obama is "more detached" than he should be. Thanks again, Kent.
Josh Rogin & Eli Lake of the Daily Beast. "President Obama wants to decide by the end of the week whether or not his war in Iraq against the Islamic State will expand to the group's haven in eastern Syria. But nearly everything about the potential military campaign is still in flux ... from the goals of the effort to the intelligence needed to carry it out." ...
... Fred Kaplan of Slate: "Let's hope that President Obama does not bomb ISIS inside Syria -- unless, maybe, the airstrikes are coordinated with some other country's troops on the ground.... It's not likely to happen for two reasons.... First, there are no ground forces inside Syria that can both repel ISIS and serve as palatable American allies. Second, the Obama administration and the neighboring Middle Eastern countries appear to have no strategy of what an intervention in Syria might look like or of what Syrian politics should look like in its aftermath."
Karen Tumulty & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "Both political parties are in a state of high anxiety about the possibility that President Obama will allow millions of illegal immigrants to remain in the country, fearing that White House action on the issue could change the course of November's midterm elections. In the past few days, Democratic candidates in nearly every closely fought Senate race have criticized the idea of aggressive action by Obama." ...
... Dana Milbank: "Hosted by a hard-line immigration group, the [Republican] mayor [of Lynn, Massachusetts], Judith Flanagan Kennedy, [came to Washington, D.C., &] told an alarming tale about how unaccompanied minors emigrating illegally from Guatemala have caused havoc in her fair burg.... But upon closer inspection, Kennedy's tale of woe doesn't quite add up." CW: Just another Republican politician, following in the party's tradition of telling tall tales to make an unsupportable political point.
Lauren Windsor of the Nation: "Last week, in an interview with Politico, Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) outlined his plan to shut down President Obama's legislative agenda by placing riders on appropriations bills.... What McConnell didn't tell Politico was that two months ago, he made the same promise to a secret strategy conference of conservative millionaire and billionaire donors hosted by the Koch brothers.... McConnell's pledge to 'go after' Democrats on financial services -- a reference to declawing Dodd-Frank regulation -- is a key omission from his Politico interview." Windsor has the tape. A full transcript is here. ...
... Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times: "To a large extent, Mr. McConnell's promises are more bluster for the Republican donor base than a foolproof plan. Through a budget procedure called reconciliation, Republicans could clear a path to tax legislation or changes to entitlement programs that could pass later in the year with simple majorities in the House and the Senate. But unless a Republican majority plans to end the filibuster on legislation as Democrats ended it on some presidential nominees, spending bills with 'riders' would need 60 votes in the Senate. If the Republicans win control of the Senate, their majority is almost certain to be short of 60." ...
... Josh Israel of Think Progress: "At a Koch Brothers-hosted secret strategy conference of right-wing millionaire and billionaire political activists in June, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) promised that if his party wins control of the United States Senate this November, the Senate will not waste time on things like increasing the minimum wage for people making only about $15,000 annually. Instead, audio of his remarks obtained by The Nation reveals, his Senate will focus on repealing Wall Street reforms, environmental protections, and affordable healthcare." ...
... Brian Beutler: Mitch McConnell is "threatening to use the appropriations process as leverage to extract concessions. That's a government shutdown fight. And no matter how he plays it, he will unleash forces he and other GOP leaders have proven incapable of restraining. They can't control the plot.... Nobody's saying a government shutdown will definitely happen. But a confrontation is very likely, and Republicans in Congress are the reason. Even if they never say the words 'government shutdown.'" ...
... Kathy Obradovich of the Des Moines Register: "Congressman Steve King said today the threat of another government shutdown could be Republicans' leverage [link fixed] to pass border security and immigration legislation this fall." ...
... Molly Ball of the Atlantic: "A well-placed House Republican source tells me GOP leadership is increasingly nervous about the potential for a rebellion on the funding bill.... Officially, Republicans insist there will be no drama, although they aren't yet saying what the plan is for getting the funding bill passed." ...
... Funny Thing. Burgess Everett of Politico: "Democrats hear only one thing when Republicans talk about fighting President Barack Obama's immigration agenda or GOP plans for controlling Congress: government shutdown. In fundraising requests, media appearances and conference calls, Democrats are painting Republicans as the 'shutdown party' just in time for the midterm elections.... The shutdown talk is being stoked after recent comments by prominent Senate Republicans like Mitch McConnell of Kentucky and Marco Rubio of Florida that predicted a confrontational stance toward Obama on spending bills if either the GOP takes the Senate or the president announces new changes to immigration policy."
The Old Boys Club I. Jake Sherman & Anna Palmer of Politico: "A detailed report commissioned by two major Republican groups -- including one backed by Karl Rove -- paints a dismal picture for Republicans, concluding female voters view the party as 'intolerant,' 'lacking in compassion' and 'stuck in the past.' Women are 'barely receptive' to Republicans' policies, and the party does 'especially poorly' with women in the Northeast and Midwest, according to an internal Crossroads GPS and American Action Network report.... One bright spot is among married women. Married women without a college degree view Republicans favorably, the polling shows. Married women prefer a Republican over a Democrat, 48 percent to 38 percent." ...
... The Old Boys Club II. "Members of Congress Called Me 'Porky.'" Lucy McCalmont of Politico: "New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand reveals in her new book that a number of her male colleagues on Capitol Hill made remarks about her weight, the New York Post and People magazine reported Wednesday.... 'It was all statements that were being made by men who were well into their 60s, 70s or 80s,' she said, in an excerpt published Wednesday of her People interview. 'They had no clue that those are inappropriate things to say to a pregnant woman or a woman who just had a baby or to women in general.'" ...
... Annie Lowrey of New York: "... to help these civic-minded geniuses understand when it is appropriate to comment on a woman's physical appearance here and now in the 21st century, I have created a flowchart."
Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.
... As the person who has the most appearances on 'Meet the Press,' I'll be glad to give you a lot of advice and counsel. -- John McCain to Chuck Todd
... Hadas Gold of Politico: "In a surprise appearance on MSNBC Wednesday morning, Sen. John McCain told Chuck Todd that 'Meet the Press' should not try to expand too far and should stick to focusing on the political dynamics facing the country. McCain's comments come just a few days after NBC News President Deborah Turness said the show needed more 'edge' and should do away with the one-on-one conversation in favor of a 'coffeehouse conversation.' ... Todd, who takes over hosting duties on 'Meet the Press' on Sept. 7 after the unceremonious departure of David Gregory, said he's been getting a lot of 'unsolicited advice.'"
Charles Pierce states what should be obvious, but is a necessary lesson for the likes of Maureen Dowd: "White people never get to pick black people's leaders for them." ...
... CW: Also, Pierce slips in something I hadn't realized: "detached," as in "President Obama is too detached" (see news on Kent Conrad linked above, ferinstance) is a white person's code word for "shiftless" as in "shiftless Negro." Pierce is right. I recall reading, many decades ago. that one small reason Jimmy Carter lost to Ronald Reagan was that people didn't like to see the President (Carter) carrying his own luggage (there were several photos of him, published at the time, carrying his bags onto AF1); they wanted a more "dignified" president. Now, by contrast, the white peoples want the black president & leader of the free world to be more deferential to the white peoples who run the Congress. President Obama's refusal to play obsequious Nee-gro is pissing off the white peoples. Among them, Mizz Dowd. Nicholas Kristof's column today -- "Is everyone a little bit racist?" (Answer: Yup) well might be directed at his colleague.
Garrett Epps of the Atlantic on John Roberts' extremely partisan Supreme Court: "Like Barack Obama, the chief justice came into office promising an age of apolitical comity. And like the president, he has seen his dream die." ...
... CW: Epps makes some good points about the Supremes, but his thesis is highly flawed. The difference between Roberts & Obama, of course, is who's at fault. Roberts promised comity & then proceeded to lead the four other justices in moves to the far right, gutting the venerable Voting Rights Act, campaign finance law (twice) & the ACA (the ACA two or three times, depending upon how you count), etc. As Epps points out, even in his vote upholding the constitutionality of the ACA, Roberts struck down the Medicaid expansion provision; right-wing litigants are now hoping to use that ruling to deprives millions of red-state Americans of the ACA tax break. By contrast, after the 2010 election, Obama knocked himself out to come to agreements with Congressional Republicans.
Charles Blow busts Bill O'Reilly for O'Reilly incredible claim that there's no such thing as "white privilege."
** Thomas Edsall of the New York Times on "the expanding universe of poverty capitalism. In this unique sector of the economy, costs of essential government services are shifted to the poor." ... CW: I've linked a few articles on this in the past, but Edsall does a superior job of describing the extent of this egregious phenomenon.
CW: Now here's something about which I know zip. Jared Bernstein in the New York Times: "To get the American economy on track, the government needs to drop its commitment to maintaining the dollar's reserve-currency status.... The privilege of having the world's reserve currency is one America can no longer afford." I can hear the howls from Republicans if Obama/the Fed? did so.
Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "William Kennedy Smith, who counts among his uncles two senators and a president, is going into the family business -- in the political equivalent of the mailroom. William K. Smith is one of two names that will appear on the Nov. 4 ballot for Advisory Neighborhood Commission seat 2A04, representing a sliver of Washington's Foggy Bottom area that includes the Watergate complex and, yes, the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts.... Smith came to national attention more than two decades ago after being accused of raping a woman in Palm Beach, Fla., when he was 30. He was acquitted...."
Beyond the Beltway
Casey Ross of the Boston Globe: "The epic battle over Market Basket that sparked an extraordinary worker revolt and captivated the public through the summer ended Wednesday when Arthur T. Demoulas reached a deal to buy the company from rival relatives for more than $1.5 billion. Market Basket's shareholders announced the deal at 11:15 p.m. after several days of suspenseful negotiations. Arthur T. Demoulas and his sisters will buy the shares of their cousin Arthur S. Demoulas and other relatives on his side of the family, who collectively own 50.5 percent of the company. In a statement stripped bare of the emotion of recent days, the company and its shareholders asked managers, employees, and customers to return to stores to help get Market Basket running again. It also announced the reinstatement of Arthur T., who had been fired as president in June." Many thanks to Julie L. for the link.
Steve Hendrix & Laura Vozzella of the Washington Post: The separate arrivals each day of Bob & Maureen McDonald to their corruption trial are "sidewalk set pieces [which] have provided a riveted public with daily glimpses of the made-for-Netflix drama unfolding inside. And, according to criminal lawyers, they are as likely to be scripted as everything else in a high-stakes legal battle. The McDonnells move as if cued by a stage manager." ...
... Today's Washington Post liveblog is here. ...
... The Defense Rests. Rosalind Helderman & Matt Zapotosky of the Washington Post: "Poignant, once-private moments in a deeply troubled marriage were again offered up Wednesday as a core defense in the federal corruption trial of former Virginia governor Robert F. McDonnell and his wife, Maureen, as the couple's eldest daughter said her parents were almost completely estranged from one another and only faked affection in public."
** Mark Follman of Mother Jones: On the evening of Michael Brown's death, people gathered at the site. Some created a makeshift memorial, which included flowers. The cops showed up with dogs. "An officer on the street let the dog he was controlling urinate on the memorial site." Others, including Brown's mother, made another memorial, which included tea lights & rose petals pressed into his blood, still on the street. "Soon the candles and flowers had been smashed, after police drove over them.... One state official told me that people in the community saw the way Brown's body was handled as a deliberate act of intimidation, echoing the slavery era, 'when somebody was beaten or lynched and they made everybody come out and watch.' Brown's killing and the heavy-handed response to the protests were seen by many in the community as 'a declaration of war.'" ...
... CNN had some law enforcement experts on the teevee to claim that the audio that was supposed to have been taped at the time of Michael Brown's shooting might be a hoax....
... Steve M. writes that he has no idea if the tape is a hoax, but he doesn't buy the "experts"' arguments. ...
... CW: I'd add that the supposed hoaxster lawyered up & turned over a copy of the tape to local law enforcement officials, so if it was a hoax it was an incredibly stupid one & would likely subject the hoaxster to some kind of obstruction-of-justice or impeding-an-investigation charges. ...
... AND now it's time to hear from Ben Stein, who presents the racist's POV on the Michael Brown shooting death. CW: By Stein's argument, every hefty black man is "scary" & implicitly "armed," like "Cassius Clay" (not Mohammed Ali, mind you). So, if you are black, young man, you are in & of yourself armed & dangerous.
Jacques Billeaud & Gene Johnson of the AP: "The accidental shooting death of a firing-range instructor by a 9-year-old girl with an Uzi has set off a powerful debate over youngsters and guns.... Jace Zack, chief deputy for the Mohave County Attorney's Office, said the instructor was probably the most criminally negligent person involved in the accident for having allowed the child to hold the gun without enough training." ...
... Kimberly McGee & Fernanda Santos write the New York Times story. ...
... Mark Follman: "In the wake of the Arizona Uzi killing..., a tweet posted on Wednesday afternoon by NRA Women, which is part of the National Rifle Association's Women's Programs and is sponsored by gun manufacturing giant Smith & Wesson. "7 Ways Children Can Have Fun at the Shooting Range" the tweet announced, linking to a recent story that details how kids can get bored with target practice if not properly entertained. NRA Women posted the tweet at 1:51 p.m. Pacific on Wednesday; by about 3 p.m. it had been removed...."
Senate Race
Brown Fudge ... Looks a Lot Like Bullshit. Greg Sargent: "There is no GOP candidate who has raised [ObamaCare] fudgery to a higher art than Scott Brown in New Hampshire."
Presidential Race(s)
I've been indicted by that same body now for I think two counts, one of bribery, which I'm not a lawyer, so I don't really understand the details here. -- Rick Perry, on whatever those criminal charges are ...
... CW: If mangling the King's English were a criminal offense, Perry would be behind bars. ...
... NEW. This belongs down the page, where I'll stick it later. Arit John of the Atlantic: "Maybe Rick Perry should have read up on his indictment charges before he started using them as a campaign talking point. During a speech last week, the Texas governor said he was being indicted for bribery, which isn't actually true.... This is another oops moment for Perry, but it also signaled his transition into the 5th and, likely for him, final stage of indictment related grief: confusion. After grinning mugshot denial, angry ads "setting the record straight," bargaining over who should pay the lawyers and depression over a loss of Second Amendment privileges, all that's left for Perry is to be slightly unsure of what, exactly, people are accusing him of doing."
Jonathan Topaz & Kendall Breitman of Politico: "The day after Mitt Romney opened the door to another possible presidential run, a new poll shows he has a huge lead among likely 2016 Iowa Republican caucus voters. According to a USA Today/Suffolk University poll released Wednesday, 35 percent of likely GOP caucus voters would vote for the 2012 GOP nominee in 2016. When Romney's name was added to the pool, no other candidate received double-digit votes." ...
... CW: Actually, if Romney "opened the door," the crack is so narrow you might not notice door is even slightly ajar. The results of that Iowa survey are the same as the results of all the surveys that show Hillary Clinton way out in front on the Democratic side. Voters can see these people as presidential candidates because both already have been credible presidential candidates. These polls reflect name recognition & voters' lack of imagination.
Jason Noble & William Petroski of the Des Moines Register: "A former Iowa state senator concealed payments he received in exchange for defecting from one presidential campaign to another ahead of Iowa's 2012 caucuses and then obstructed an investigation into the incident. Kent Sorenson of Milo now faces up to 25 years in prison, after pleading guilty on Wednesday to two counts in federal court in Des Moines. The case revolves around Sorenson's dramatic jump from the presidential campaign of U.S. Rep. Michele Bachmann to then-U.S. Rep. Ron Paul's rival campaign in late December 2011, just days before the Iowa caucuses.... According to a statement of facts accompanying Sorenson's plea agreement, he secretly negotiated with the Paul campaign over a period of months to join the campaign and received $73,000. The payments ... [were] routed through a film production company and a second company before being received by Sorenson. Those circuitous routes circumvented reporting requirements of the Federal Election Commission, ensuring the payments were kept hidden from the public....
Tim Hagle, a University of Iowa political scientist, said Sorenson's conviction will hopefully have only a minor effect on the Iowa caucuses, but he suspects that U.S. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., may be asked questions about it because payments came from the presidential campaign of his father, former U.S. Rep. Ron Paul, R-Texas.
... Read the whole story. It's a hoot. The investigation began as a result of suspicions that Sorenson first accepted money from Bachmann's campaign & a Bachmann PAC, payments which Bachmann & Sorenson also routed through go-betweens. Seems Sorenson had this money-laundering scheme down pat. Almost. As Rachel Maddow likes to say, "Wash, rinse & repeat."
Over There
Paul Krugman: "OK, this has to be the funniest headline I've seen for a while, on Business Insider: The French Government Has Collapsed, And It's Partly Paul Krugman's Fault. The French prime minister has tendered his resignation amid a dispute set off by the economy minister's decision to go public with opposition to austerity orthodoxy, and since he cited me on the subject, Business Insider has made a funny. The real story, of course, is the combination of the abject failure of austerity at a Europe-wide level, and the intransigence of the policy's instigators."
News Ledes
Washington Post: "At least four hostages held in Syria by the Islamic State, including an American journalist who was recently executed by the group, were waterboarded in the early part of their captivity, according to people familiar with the treatment of the kidnapped Westerners."
New York Times: "Declaring that Russian troops had crossed into Ukraine, President Petro O. Poroshenko on Thursday canceled a planned visit to Turkey and convened a meeting of the national security council to focus on the 'marked aggravation of the situation' in the southeast of his country. The meeting of the national security council will focus on shaping a response, and Ukraine will also request a meeting of the United Nations Security Council." ...
... UPDATE. New Lede: "Supported by NATO satellite imagery showing Russian forces on the move in eastern Ukraine, its president accused Russia on Thursday of an invasion to aid the separatists, and his national security council ordered mandatory conscription to help counter what he called an 'extremely difficult' threat."
Time: "In an interview with CNN on Wednesday, the director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Dr. Tom Frieden, said the Ebola outbreak in West Africa is a 'much bigger problem than anyone anticipated.' ... But Frieden says ... Ebola can be stopped." ...
... New York Times: "As the tally of deaths from the worst known outbreak of the Ebola virus continued its seemingly inexorable rise, the World Health Organization said on Thursday that the epidemic was still accelerating and could afflict more than 20,000 people -- almost seven times the current number of reported cases -- before it could be brought under control."