The Commentariat -- Feb. 10, 2016
Afternoon Update:
Daniel Strauss of Politico: "... Carly Fiorina dropped out of the 2016 [presidential] contest on Wednesday, ending a campaign that failed to enlist enough support despite Republican voters' clear preference for a Washington outsider this cycle. I've said throughout this campaign that I will not sit down and be quiet. I'm not going to start now,' the former Hewlett-Packard CEO said in a statement. 'While I suspend my candidacy today, I will continue to travel this country and fight for those Americans who refuse to settle for the way things are and a status quo that no longer works for them.'" CW: With luck, the media won't cover her travels & fights.
Annie Karni of Politico: "As she looks toward the more diverse March states, [Hillary] Clinton is putting a new focus on race. The first salvo came Wednesday, when African-American elected officials and civil rights leaders supporting her campaign participated in a conference call to raise questions about Sanders' record on gun violence and criminal justice reform.... On a conference call with African-American surrogates for Hillary Clinton, civil rights leader and former NAACP president Hazel Dukes dismissed the significance of Bernie Sanders' participation in the March on Washington in 1963.... New York Congressman Hakeem Jeffries told reporters on the call that ... 'When you match up the record of Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders, there simply is no comparison.... She's been at the dance from the beginning of her career.' In contrast, 'Sanders has been missing in action on issues of importance to the African American community,' Jeffries said, characterizing him as 'a new arrival to the dance ... at the twilight of his career.'"
Nick Gass of Politico: "President Barack Obama will not endorse a candidate in the Democratic primary, but there is no doubt where he is leaning, according to former White House press secretary Jay Carney. 'I think the president has signaled while still remaining neutral that he supports Secretary Clinton's candidacy and who prefer to see her as the nominee,' Carney said on CNN Wednesday...." ...
... AP: "President Barack Obama returned Wednesday to the Illinois capital where he launched his national political career and appealed for help ridding politics of 'polarization and meanness' that discourage participation in civic life. In an address to the Illinois General Assembly, Obama said he regretted his failure to apply to Washington politics the lessons he had learned about working across the political aisle as a state senator. Changing the tone is possible, he said, but it 'requires citizenship and a sense that we are one.":
Matea Gold & John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders took a few moments in his victory speech Tuesday night to make a small request of his supporters: 'Please help us raise the funds we need, whether it's 10 bucks, 20 bucks, or 50 bucks,' he said. The response was so overwhelming that his website buckled under the traffic. Between the close of polls and mid-afternoon Wednesday, his campaign brought in a record $5.2 million. Sanders is barreling out of New Hampshire in a position few anticipated when he first entered the 2016 White House contest: financially competitive with Hillary Clinton."
Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: "Ta-Nehisi Coates, the award-winning writer who has become one of the nation's most influential voices on cultural and political issues, particularly touching on race relations, said Wednesday that he would be voting for Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. The decision by Mr. Coates, the recipient of a MacArthur 'genius grant' and ... winner of the National Book Award, came as something of a surprise: Last month, Mr. Coates, author of a widely read 2014 Atlantic essay, 'The Case for Reparations,' wrote two articles sharply criticizing Mr. Sanders over his opposition to reparations for slavery."
Marco Marco Marco Knew Christie Was on the Attack. Jeremy Peters & Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: "Mr. Christie had not just telegraphed the coming attack, he directly forewarned Mr. Rubio backstage on Saturday night as the two men waited for their names to be called by the ABC News moderators. 'I understand I am going to have a hard time tonight,' Mr. Rubio playfully told Mr. Christie. 'Yes, you are,' Mr. Christie replied, according to three people to whom he recounted the conversation. Todd Harris, a senior Rubio adviser, called the conversation 'completely fabricated.'" ...
... BUT Now Marco Marco Marco Is "Funny, Unscripted & Human." Jeremy Peters: "Senator Marco Rubio of Florida took questions from reporters aboard his charter flight to South Carolina for nearly 45 minutes.... As he spoke, he made it clear that he was entering a new phase of his campaign, one less burdened by the caution and message discipline that have made him seem mechanical and scripted at times."
Alex Isenstadt & David Strauss of Politico: "Chris Christie is expected to formally suspend his campaign later on Wednesday, according to a source close to the campaign, after finishing a disappointing sixth in the New Hampshire primary. The New Jersey governor was expected to spend part of the day reaching out to donors and top supporters to discuss his decision, the source said."
Charles Pierce has fun reflecting upon the outcomes of the primaries.
Driftglass Welcomes Michael Bloomberg: "... who better to step in out of the Beltway pundit's magic Centrist unicorn dreams and into the race... Who better to dump another shit-ton of money into a race already choking on the fumes of burning piles of cash...Who better to grab both the unruly anti-Wall Street Democrats and the unhinged, anti-Muslim, anti-immigrant wingnut rabble by the scruff of the neck and tell them all to STFU and fall in line... than yet another New York billionaire!"
Jonathan Chait: "Among those shocked by Donald Trump's runaway victory in the New Hampshire primary was Eric Cantor, who had just a few weeks before made a bet that Trump would fail to win a single primary. The experience of being shocked should not come as a shock to Cantor. In 2010, Cantor invested some $15,000 in a fund that bet on higher inflation, which was widely predicted by conservatives at the time but utterly failed to come about. In 2014, he lost his primary despite internal polling that showed him 34 points ahead, and admitted he was 'absolutely' shocked by the defeat.... People who want to bet their money on Cantor's ability to see the future" can find him at his investment firm, advising wealthy people on what the future holds. CW: Love the accompanying photo of Cantor, adjusting his glasses in such a way as to remind potential investors that he is (a) a very smart guy (b) who can see into the future.
*****
Presidential Race
Yuuuge! Here's a clip from Sanders' victory speech:
... Update: Here's the full speech:
Jeet Heer of the New Republic: "Bernie Sanders is the future of the Democratic party.... Democrats especially if they are white, millennial and postgrad -- are increasingly likely to call themselves liberals.... It is true that younger blacks and Hispanics are also trending liberal, but for now, there are enough moderate and conservative older blacks and Hispanics to give Clinton some breathing room." CW: The Democratic party will fade to a faction if it can't bring along minorities & moderate white people. ...
... Matt Yglesias of Vox: ""Bernie Sanders is the future of the Democratic party.... Hillary Clinton's campaign -- and, frankly, many DC journalists -- has been repeatedly taken by surprise by the potency of some of Sanders's attacks, because they apply to such a broad swath of the party. But this is precisely the point. Sanders and his youthful supporters want the Democrats to be a different kind of party: a more ideological, more left-wing one."
... Eric Levitz of New York: "Sanders's victory is a remarkable triumph for a certain strain of American Jewish political thought. When asked about his spirituality at last week's Democratic debate, the Vermont senator replied, 'My spirituality is that we are all in this together and that when children go hungry, when veterans sleep out on the street, it impacts me.' Sanders's Judaism is the socialist, universalist sort that was conceived through centuries of Talmudic scholarship, incubated in sweatshop factories in New York and Chicago, and brought to life in the great labor struggles of the early 20th century."
Isaac Chotiner of Slate: "Hillary Clinton's impressive concession speech Tuesday night, which followed Bernie Sanders' even more impressive win in the New Hampshire primary, was a bracing call for getting real.... What made the speech better than many of her previous efforts -- I'm not including her Goldman Sachs speeches, since we haven't seen those -- was that she mixed this practical approach to leadership with a surprising amount of heart":
... Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Bernie Sanders's nearly 22-point victory came after Mrs. Clinton's advisers had worked hard to lower expectations, but privately, many people close to Mrs. Clinton, including her husband, believed the state would once again serve as a lifeline." ...
... Annie Karni of Politico: "Both Hillary and Bill Clinton knew she would lose [in New Hampshire] -- but not by this much. Now, after a drubbing so serious as to call into question every aspect of her campaign from her data operation to her message, the wounded front-runner and her allies are actively preparing to retool their campaign, according to Clinton allies.... Clinton is set to campaign with African-American victims of law enforcement deaths, like Trayvon Martin's mother and Eric Garner's mother. And the campaign, sources said, is expected to push a new focus on systematic racism, criminal justice reform, voting rights and gun violence that will mitigate concerns about her lack of an inspirational message." ...
... Lisa Desjardins of PBS NewsHour: "Hours before official New Hampshire results appeared Tuesday, Hillary Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook conceded to staffers, supporters and some reporters that the Granite State race was lost, in a memo obtained by PBS NewsHour that urged the Clinton team to focus past February and on March."
... Molly Ball of the Atlantic: "One thing is certain: A major fight for the Democratic nomination lies ahead."
We're being ripped off by everybody. And I guess that's the thing that Bernie Sanders and myself have in common. We know about the trade. But unfortunately he can't do anything to fix it, whereas I will. The only thing he does know, and he's right about, is that we're being ripped off; he says that constantly; and I guess he and I are the only two that really say that. -- Donald Trump, on "Morning Joe" today...
... Greg Sargent: "In her concession speech..., Clinton continued to describe Sanders's success in limited emotional terms -- as if he is merely speaking to people's anger and frustration. Some pundits similarly describe Trump's appeal as an ability to harness 'anger.' Yet there's more to it than this. What both Trump and Sanders share is that they treat the problem as one of political economy, in which both the economic and political systems are rigged in intertwined ways, thus speaking directly to people's understandable intellectual assessment of what is deeply wrong with our system and why it no longer works for them." ...
... Michael Grunwald of Politico Magazine: "New Hampshire's unemployment rate is only 3.1 percent. New Hampshire's average gasoline price is only $1.98 per gallon. New Hampshire's murder rate is the lowest in the country, and so is New Hampshire's poverty rate. Also: New Hampshire's voters want serious change. That was the in-your-face message of last night's primary results, a widely predicted but still somehow viscerally shocking call for overthrow, on both sides.... The seething disgust that propelled Trump and Sanders to victory is hard to deny, and neither Clinton nor Kasich or Bush seems well-positioned to win a disgust-a-thon against more natural purveyors of disgust."
"A Racist, Sexist Demagogue Just Won The New Hampshire Primary." Ryan Grim & Igor Bobic of the Huffington Post: Donald Trump's "resounding victory amid a crowded field of more experienced and accomplished candidates is a stunning turn of events for a party that vowed just four years ago to be more inclusive to minorities after failing to unseat President Barack Obama in the bitter 2012 election. What the GOP got instead is a xenophobic demagogue who's insulted pretty much everyone and even earned the endorsement of white supremacists. Trump's victory in New Hampshire likely points to a drawn-out slog between Trump and at least one of his rivals as they battle to secure enough delegates in hopes of winning their party's nomination...." ...
... Brian Beutler of the New Republic: "Trump's victory, and the magnitude of his victory, is a political cataclysm for the Republican Party.... He more than doubled the support of the second-place finisher John Kasich. This gives Trump an early delegate lead going into nominating contests in South Carolina and Nevada, where he also enjoys commanding advantages in public polls.... Everything that's happened since last Monday has served as a reminder that the Republican establishment is hanging its fortunes on extremely thin reeds....
After Iowa, and despite a third-place finish, Rubio briefly benefited from a deluge of endorsements and campaign donations on the basis of the impression that he was both uniquely electable, and uniquely capable of uniting the party. These notions took hold despite widespread awareness of Rubio's thin resume and inability to act with a clear head under pressure. His momentum was thus extremely fragile and after one public demonstration that the concerns were valid, it collapsed. Tonight he finished fifth.
Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "For the establishment wing of the Republican Party, the picture just keeps getting bleaker.... The establishment lane is now more crowded than ever, with Rubio, Jeb Bush, and New Hampshire runner-up John Kasich heading for a brutal fight in South Carolina -- a state known for its rough-and-tumble political culture." CW: Really? Not if Chrisco drops out, as he seems likely to do. All the candidates are wing-nuts, but the perceived outsiders -- Trump & Cruz -- are battling for the same voters, & Rubio, too, is competing for the wing-nuttiest. If you squint, you can still see a path for Jeb!, where Trump, Cruz & Rubio duke it out for the crazies, Christie stays in New Jersey & the underfunded Kasich fades. Of course, there's always Carly! Oh, I forgot Ole Doc.
Andrew Ryan of the Boston Globe: "Senator Marco Rubio appeared to be heading for a distant fifth-place finish Tuesday in New Hampshire's Republican presidential primary, a stinging disappointment for a candidate who brimmed with momentum after his strong finish in Iowa.... 'I'm disappointed,' Rubio told supporters at his primary night rally. 'It's on me. I [did] not do well on Saturday night, so listen to this: That will never happen again.' Rubio added, 'We will win this election. Because if we do not win this election, we may lose our country.'" CW: So here's Marco once again portraying himself as the one-and-only savior despite his noxious remark that "There's only one savior and it's not me. It's Jesus Christ who came down to earth and died for our sins.'" We live on a pretty big piece of geography to get lost, but if HarpenCollins can lose Israel, I suppose anything is possible. ...
... Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "... Marco Rubio accepted the blame for his disappointing fifth-place finish in New Hampshire but also pointed to another culprit: the media. 'What happened is obviously Saturday night the debate went the way it went, and then just the media coverage over the last 72 hours was very negative about it and so forth,' Rubio said Wednesday on 'Fox & Friends.'" ...
... CW: Dana Milbank has another amusing anecdote about Marco that slipped my notice: "The reviews [of Rubio's debate performance] were savage, and then, on Monday night, RubioBot malfunctioned again. 'Janette and I are raising our four children in the 21st century, and we know how hard it's become to instill our values in our kids instead of the values they try to ram down our throats,' he told supporters, then added: 'In the 21st century, it's becoming harder than ever to instill in your children the values they teach in our homes and in our church instead of the values that they try to ram down our throats.'... Had Rubio received scrutiny earlier, voters might have been able to find a candidate who didn't wilt in the spotlight. But Iowa and New Hampshire didn't serve their functions this time. Trump got in the way."
Clare Foran of the Atlantic: Chris "Christie won't even finish in the top five. An as-yet-incomplete vote tally shows him trailing Trump, John Kasich, Ted Cruz, Jeb Bush, and Marco Rubio. Speaking to supporters Tuesday evening, Christie announced that he'll go home to New Jersey where he'll wait to see how the final vote shakes out before making a decision about what comes next. He said he should be ready to make that decision tomorrow, and it sounds very likely that he may soon drop out of the 2016 race." CW: But thanks, Gov. Chrisco, for exposing MarcoBot, even if you did copy President Josiah Bartlett. ...
... Claude Brodesser-Akner of NJ.com: "Gov. Chris Christie is still waiting to exhale, but Republican experts are saying the New Jersey governor is all but certain to end his presidential campaign in New Jersey sometime Wednesday."
Josh Voorhees of Slate: Ohio Gov. John "Kasich’s surprise [second-place] showing actually turns the GOP's Trump-themed headache into a migraine."
Paul Krugman (Feb. 8): "... on economic policy -- which sort of matters -- Kasich is terrible, arguably worse than the rest of the GOP field. It's not just his balanced-budget fetishism, which would be disastrous in an economic crisis. He’s also a hard-money man.... He is viscerally opposed to monetary as well as fiscal stimulus in the face of high unemployment. So no, Kasich isn't sensible. He's just off the wall in ways that differ in some ways from the GOP mainstream. If he'd been president in 2009-10, we'd have had a full replay of the Great Depression."
At 8:00 pm ET, the New York Times has already called the New Hampshire primaries, declaring Bernie Sanders the winner on the Democratic side & Donald Trump the winner of the GOP race. (Front page.) CW: Not sure who made the projections; it's usually the AP. ...
... Patrick Healy & Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump and Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont rocked the American political establishment on Tuesday night, harnessing working-class fury to surge to commanding victories in a New Hampshire primary that drew energetic turnout across the state."
... Dan Balz, et al., of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders and billionaire Donald Trump have been projected as the winners of the Democratic and Republican presidential primaries in New Hampshire -- a remarkable victory for two outsiders who tapped into voter anger at the two parties' establishments, and each promised massive government actions to provide working people with an economic boost." CW: Really? Bernie Sanders is just like Donald Trump? Um, exactly what "massive government actions" has Trump promised? Oh, maybe Balz & Co. are referring to Trump's tax plan, which like all the other GOP tax plans, would make the rich richer & the government poorer. ...
... BUT Fox "News" had the results before noon! Nolan McCaskill & Hadas Gold of Politico: "Donald Trump won the New Hampshire primary Tuesday -- according to a premature Fox News report. Citing every precinct reporting, Fox News' website accidentally published election results declaring Trump the winner with 28 percent support and 14 delegates."
The New York Times' primary results page is here. On the Republican side with 37 votes cast (yep, 37), there's a three-way tie on the Republican side: 9 votes each for Cruz, Trump & Kasich. Sanders leads Clinton 17-9, with 28 votes counted.
The New York Times' liveblog is here. Even before the polls close, it has some interesting tidbits: Ben Carson felt he had to telegraph his intention to stay in the race, Bernie couldn't find his car in downtown Concord, Hillary doesn't know what "went viral" means (suggesting to me she doesn't read the news; she has it read to her), & Donald Trump says (3:21 pm) he won't be calling people pussies when he's president: ("On 'Fox and Friends,' Mr. Trump argued again that he was not to blame for the use of the expletive..., which a woman in the crowd called out and Mr. Trump repeated. 'It was like a retweet,' Mr. Trump ... said. 'I would never say a word like that.'"
Eric Levitz of New York: "... if Sanders wins by a margin of 55 to 45 percent, Hillary Clinton will walk away with an even share of New Hampshire's delegates. Since our nation was founded on the principle of 'no taxation without an insanely convoluted process of electing representation,' as long as Clinton gets above 43.8 percent of the vote, she's entitled to half the state's delegates."
At the end of yesterday's Comments thread, contributor Elizabeth has a great first-hand report on her New Hampshire polling place. Her report jibes with the New York Times' banner headline (at 6:45 pm ET): "Voter turnout is said to be strong as polls near close." Most polls close at 7 pm ET.
Andrew O'Hehir of Salon: "There is an immense ideological gulf at the heart of the Democratic electorate that this campaign has exposed, and it cannot be easily papered over, no matter who wins."
Charles Pierce: "One thing about the Clinton team: because they've been the object of sophisticated (and well-financed) ratfcking for over 25 years, they've developed a real talent for opposition research their own selves." Read on. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... "Half a Dream." Charles Blow (Feb. 8): "... possibly the most damaging of Clinton's attributes is, ironically, her practicality. As one person commented to me on social media: Clinton is running an I-Have-Half-A-Dream campaign. That simply doesn't inspire young people brimming with the biggest of dreams. Clinton's message says: Aim lower, think smaller, move slower. It says, I have more modest ambitions, but they are more realistic. As Clinton put it Thursday in a swipe at Sanders, 'I'm not making promises that I cannot keep.' But the pragmatic progressive line is not going to help her chip away at Sanders's support among the young. That support is hardening into hipness." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post: "During the 2000 presidential campaign, one of the mantras of then-Gov. George W. Bush's campaign was that he would 'restore honor and dignity' to the White House. That line was always met with a roar of approval from people appalled by the White House indiscretions of President Clinton.... [The Republican] party has gone from craving honor and dignity to demanding bread and circuses. And Trump gives the faithful exactly what they want, no matter how vile."
McKay Coppins of BuzzFeed: "... to those who have known him longest, [Marco] Rubio's flustered performance Saturday night fit perfectly with an all-too-familiar strain of his personality, one that his handlers and image-makers have labored for years to keep out of public view. Though generally seen as cool-headed and quick on his feet, Rubio is known to friends, allies, and advisers for a kind of incurable anxiousness -- and an occasional propensity to panic in moments of crisis, both real and imagined." CW: Panic under pressure: an excellent qualification for a job that requires responses to multiple crises every day.
Tuesday's Biggest Winners -- Karl & the Supremes. Ken Vogel of Politico: "The Internal Revenue Service ― in a move signaling a lack of appetite for policing big-money campaign spending ― granted tax exempt status to a Karl Rove-conceived non-profit group that pioneered secret money-funded attack ads. The group..., Crossroads GPS..., has come to epitomize the new types of big-money spending made possible by the Supreme Court's 2010 Citizens United decision. Elections watchdogs for years have accused it of violating tax and election laws by spending hundreds of millions of dollars on political ads attacking Democratic candidates and boosting Republican ones ― all while failing to disclose its donors' identities or registering as a political committee with the Federal Election Commission."
Other News
** Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday blocked implementation of President Obama's ambitious proposal to limit carbon emissions and reduce global warming while the plan is challenged. The court granted a stay request from more than two dozen states, utilities and coal miners who said the Environmental Protection Agency was overstepping its powers. The court's decision does not address the merits of the challenge, but indicates justices think the states have raised serious questions.... The court's four liberal justices objected to the decision...." ...
... Jonathan Chait on the implications: "Democrats need to hold on to the White House or literally risk planetary disaster." CW: Gives new meaning to Kate Madison's call to "Remember the Supremes!"
Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: "President Obama on Tuesday sent his final annual budget proposal to a hostile Republican-led Congress, seeking $19 billion for a broad new cybersecurity initiative and rejecting the lame-duck label as he declared that his plan 'is about looking forward.' The budget for fiscal year 2017, which starts Oct. 1, would top $4 trillion, although only about one-quarter of that is the so-called discretionary spending for domestic and military programs that the president and Congress dicker over each year. The rest is for mandatory spending, chiefly interest on the federal debt and the Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid benefits that are expanding as the population ages." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Noam Scheiber of the New York Times: "At the center of the final budget of President Obama's term is a concession that the major macroeconomic trends of the past two generations -- particularly the loss of benefits that once went with formal employment relationships -- are largely irreversible. In laying out proposals from improving access to 401(k) plans to supplementing the incomes of workers who accept lower wages after losing jobs, the president laid out a clear, if limited, view of government's role in the labor market. Inside the budget is a detailed agenda to ease the anxieties of workers weighed down by job insecurity and income volatility." ...
... Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "The release of President Obama's eighth and final budget on Tuesday has forced into the open the seething tensions that never really went away after a spending agreement was reached last year, in part to ease [Paul] Ryan's transition into the speaker's suite. That deal set spending until the end of October of this year, at levels that the president adhered to and Senate Republicans hope to make stick. But a core group of House Republicans who gave Mr. Ryan a pass back then now say they want to toss those numbers out like so much flotsam and pass their own budget with far tighter spending restrictions."
Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Ted Cruz blocked the Senate from confirming State Department nominees for the third time in the past week, even though the Texas Republican is campaigning in New Hampshire. Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-Minn.) tried on Monday evening to get unanimous consent to confirm Samuel Heins to be ambassador to Norway and Azita Raji to be ambassador to Sweden. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), however, objected, and said he was doing so on behalf of Cruz, who has spent much of the last week campaigning in New Hampshire...."
... Hurts the Bottom Line. Daniel Victor New York Times: "Having women in the highest corporate offices is correlated with increased profitability, according to a new study of nearly 22,000 publicly traded companies in 91 countries. The study, released Monday by the Peterson Institute for International Economics, a nonprofit group based in Washington, and EY, the audit firm formerly known as Ernst & Young, found that despite the apparent economic benefits, many corporations are lacking in gender diversity. Almost 60 percent of the companies reviewed had no female board members, and more than 50 percent had no female executives. Just under 5 percent had a female chief executive."
David Jolly of the New York Times: "The United States Army will deploy hundreds of soldiers to the southern Afghan province of Helmand, where government forces have been pushed to the brink by Taliban militants, a military spokesman said Tuesday.It will be the largest deployment of American troops outside major bases in Afghanistan since the end of the NATO combat mission in 2014."
Way Beyond the Beltway
Adrienne Varkiani of Think Progress: "A statement released Tuesday by Doctors Without Borders confirms that a hospital in the Dara'a Governorate in Syria was hit by an airstrike on February 5. The airstrike on the hospital killed three people and wounded an additional six, according to the statement. The Talas hospital, which is close to the Jordanian border, is still partially damaged. It is the 13th health care facility to be attacked in Syria this year alone, according to Doctors Without Borders, which has documented such attacks in the past."