The Commentariat -- January 4, 2016
Afternoon Update:
Andy Borowitz: (Satire) "A majority of Oregonians favor building a twenty-foot wall along the border of their state to prevent angry white men from getting in, a poll released on Monday shows."
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Gardiner Harris & Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "Renewing his emphasis on the need for more gun restrictions, President Obama will participate in a live televised town-hall-style meeting on Thursday to discuss gun violence in the United States, according to the White House. The hourlong event, at George Mason University outside Washington, will be televised on CNN at 8 p.m." See related story linked under Presidential Race. ...
... Tim Noah of Politico: "Nearly 4,000 regulations are squirming their way through the federal bureaucracy in the last year of Barack Obama's presidency -- many costing industry more than $100 million -- in a mad dash by the White House to push through government actions affecting everything from furnaces to gun sales to Guantanamo.... Much of this work will be carried out in the coming months by career bureaucrats..., but the cumulative effect adds up to something larger: A final-year sprint by a president intent on using executive power to improve the lives of American workers and consumers -- in many instances over loud objections from the businesses that will have to pay for it. The work must be done swiftly in most cases because any regulation finalized after May 17 or thereabouts risks being blocked by Congress." (Noah explains why.)
"Elections Have Consequences." What Paul Krugman learned from the IRS's newly-released 2013 tax tables: "Mr. Obama's election in 2008 and re-election in 2012 had some real, quantifiable consequences.... One of the important consequences of the 2012 election was that Mr. Obama was able to go through with a significant rise in taxes on high incomes.... If Mitt Romney had won, we can be sure that Republicans would have found a way to prevent these tax hikes.... The bottom line is that presidential elections matter, a lot, even if the people on the ballot aren't as fiery as you might like." ...
... BUT. digby: Republican voters "don't care about taxes for the rich --- or themselves either, at least not in the abstract. They are not motivated by economic arguments unless the argument is that the government is taking their money and giving it to black people or immigrants or spending it on foreigners."
CW: Peter Baker of the New York Times usually finds some hook to annoy me, as he does in today's essay on President Obama's "struggle to stay relevant," but the content is overwise informative.
New Rules, Undefined. Mark Schmitt in a New York Times op-ed: "... in recent years, Republican politicians especially have not only defied the rules, they have also protected themselves from the consequences. Restrictions on voting, along with aggressive redistricting, reduce the influence of the median voter. Campaign war chests (including 'super PACs') scare off opponents, from within their own party as well as the other. By crippling civil-society institutions such as unions and community groups, which organize middle- and lower-income voters, they sometimes avoid being held accountable. They can use ideological media to reach mostly like-minded voters.... Now that congressional leaders, governors and Mr. Trump have shown the rules and customs of American politics to be hollow and unenforceable, we need a new set of tools to understand how democracy works, or doesn't."
American "Justice," Ctd. Madison Pauly of Mother Jones: "When it comes to throwing juveniles in jail with no chance for parole, the main culprits are officials in a handful of counties with a reputation for seeking and imposing harsh sentences on kids. Philadelphia alone is responsible for sentencing about 9 percent of America's current juvenile life-without-parole inmates.... Since 1992, black children arrested for murder are twice as likely to end up sentenced to life without parole as white children arrested for murder.... One strange outcome of the decision to end mandatory sentencing, in Miller v. Alabama, is that even though many fewer juvenile offenders now receive life-without-parole sentences compared with the late 90s, there is actually more opportunity for racial bias because sentences are now discretionary."
American "Justice," Ctd. Joseph Goldstein of the New York Times: "The Suffolk County, New York, "law enforcement" apparatus has long been a rat's nest of sleazy power politics. The Justice Department is investigating district attorney Thomas Spota & his long-time pal, the former police chief James Burke, is under federal indictment "on charges of violating a thief's civil rights after a duffel bag -- containing pornography, sex toys and cigars -- was stolen from Mr. Burke's sport utility vehicle in 2012. When the thief was arrested shortly after the break-in, Mr. Burke, 51, barged in on the interrogation and punched him, then persuaded his officers to cover for him by lying about the episode, a federal indictment says." Federal "agents [are seeking] evidence about whether judgeships are for sale in Suffolk County.... In Suffolk County, policing is not a middle-class job.... Detectives and sergeants have been known to earn more than $200,000 a year."
Presidential Race
Trip Gabriel & Amy Chozick of the New York Times: Bernie Sanders' "campaign has quietly assembled an extensive ground game [in Iowa], with 100 paid staff members and with trained volunteer leaders for each of the state's 1,681 caucus precincts." Sanders is relying on enthusiasm, too, "because younger and economically struggling voters [-- his base --] are historically less likely to caucus."
Jennifer Epstein of Bloomberg: "... Hillary Clinton will unveil proposals this month that will 'go beyond the Buffett Rule' to raise the effective tax rates paid by the wealthiest Americans, she said Saturday. 'As president, I'll do what it takes to make sure the super-wealthy are truly paying their fair share,' Clinton said in a statement responding to the Internal Revenue Service's release of new data on tax rates paid by the 400 wealthiest U.S. households, which averaged 22.89 percent in 2013."
Abby Phillip of the Washington Post: "One day before former president Bill Clinton arrives in New Hampshire to campaign for his wife, Hillary Clinton, she was confronted with questions about allegations involving his sexual history at a town hall meeting in the state on Sunday. State Rep. Katherine Prudhomme-O'Brien (R) repeatedly interrupted Clinton during the meeting, which was held in a middle school gymnasium.... After Prudhomme-O'Brien's third interruption, Clinton responded angrily: 'You are very rude, and I'm not ever going to call on you.'" ...
... CW: Here's a little background on Prudhomme-O'Brien. This is not the first time she's done this sort of thing.
David Cloud of the Los Angeles Times: "President Obama's plan to impose new controls on gun sales in an effort to lessen gun violence drew sharp fire Sunday from Republican presidential candidates, who argued he lacked authority to enact the restrictions by executive order.... 'I don't like anything to do with changing our 2nd Amendment,' Donald Trump ... said on CBS' 'Face the Nation.' Obama 'just goes and signs executive orders on everything.' New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, appearing on 'Fox News Sunday,' called Obama 'a petulant child' who sidesteps Congress 'whenever he can't get what he wants.'... 'His first impulse is always to take rights away from law-abiding citizens," [Jeb] Bush said, also on 'Fox News Sunday.' 'And it's wrong. And to use executive powers that he doesn't have is a pattern that's quite dangerous.'" ...
... CW: Kinda funny, because all three of these critics are mighty fond of executive orders. Trump has promised, among other things to personally build a big ole border fence, presumably by executive order. Christie has already changed a New Jersey state gun law by executive order. According to the AP, "Bush was an aggressive chief executive throughout his tenure as Florida governor, pushing the limits of executive authority, bristling at legislative oversight and willing to work around the courts." ...
... BUT There Are Things Too Delicate to Discuss. Katie Zezima & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "Republican presidential candidates are staying mum as an armed group has taken over part of a national wildlife refuge in rural Oregon -- even those who supported the father of at least one of its leaders, who had his own standoff with the government in 2014, and have called for limits on federal control over Western land."
Nick Gass of Politico: "Donald Trump on Monday assailed President Barack Obama for his upcoming executive action to tighten gun restrictions, remarking that on the current track, it would soon become impossible for Americans to exercise their Second Amendment rights to have firearms. 'Well pretty soon, you won't be able to get guns. I mean, it's another step in the way of not getting guns,' the Republican presidential candidate told CNN's 'New Day.'" ...
... Tom LoBianco & Elizabeth Landers of CNN: "Donald Trump on Saturday said the policies of President Barack Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton 'created ISIS,' the furthest the GOP front-runner has gone in tying the Obama administration's policies to the rise of the terror group.Trump offered no evidence for his claim...."
... Robert Costa & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "The decision to air television ads -- which [Donald] Trump hinted at for months, though the billionaire mogul has been loath to spend more than he deems necessary -- represents a tightly produced new act for a candidate who has fed largely off free media attention. In an interview Sunday with The Post, Trump said that he has six to eight ads in production and that his was a 'major buy and it's going to go on for months.' He said he hopes the spots impress upon undecided voters that the country has become 'a dumping ground. The world is laughing at us, at our stupidity,' he said. 'It's got to stop. We've got to get smart fast -- or else we won't have a country.'" ...
... OR, as Greg Sargent (or a WashPo headline writer) parses it, "Donald Trump’s new TV ad: Make America great by keeping the darkies out." (I won't be surprised if somebody at the WashPo rewrites that headline.)
CW: I skipped that weekend New York Times story by Jason Horowitz about Donald Trump's troubled brother Freddy, but here's an illuminating tidbit: "Then came the unveiling of Fred Sr.'s will, which Donald had helped draft. It divided the bulk of the inheritance, at least $20 million, among his children and their descendants, 'other than my son Fred C. Trump Jr.' Freddy's children sued, claiming that an earlier version of the will had entitled them to their father's share of the estate, but that Donald and his siblings had used 'undue influence' over their grandfather, who had dementia, to cut them out. A week later, [Donald] Trump retaliated by withdrawing the medical benefits critical to his nephew's infant child." I guess we know what the Donald would do to CHIP in order to accommodate tax cuts for millionaires & billionaires.
Beyond the Beltway
Les Zaitz of the Oregonian: "Law enforcement agencies are remaining mum about plans to end militiamen's occupation of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge headquarters.... Harney County Sheriff Dave Ward said in a statement late Saturday that 'a collective effort from multiple agencies is currently working on a solution.'... Accounts of how many militia are at the refuge range from their own claims of up to 150 to accounts from reporters at the scene that there may be no more than 15.... Law enforcement will be under great pressure to act because of the Bundys' confrontation in Nevada. The U.S. Bureau of Land Management retreated from that confrontation and has yet to publicly act against the Bundys to collect $1 million in unpaid grazing fees. That retreat has emboldened militia members as they now face the prospect of another standoff." ...
... CW: If this were an unarmed Occupy group of mostly young people, "law enforcement" would just pepper-spray their faces & throw 'em in jail. But these people occupying a migratory bird sanctuary are gun-totin' Constitutional scholars who say the federal government has no right to own land, so by all means, cave. Also, too, while the boyz are otherwise occupied (or occupying), this would be an opportune time for the BLM to round up those Bundy cattle. ...
... Carissa Wolf, et al., of the Washington Post: "'These men came to Harney County claiming to be part of militia groups supporting local ranchers,' [Sheriff Dave] Ward said in a statement Sunday. 'When in reality these men had alternative motives, to attempt to overthrow the county and federal government in hopes to spark a movement across the United States.'... Heidi Beirich of the Southern Poverty Law Center ... said that Bundy's success has fueled a renewed rise in the number of anti-government activist groups and self-described militias. 'When you have a big win like they did at the Bundy Ranch, it emboldens people.... It is definitely a recipe for disaster.'" ...
... Contributor Julie passes along the statement of the Portland Audubon Society, which reads, in part, "The occupation of Malheur by armed, out of state militia groups puts one of America's most important wildlife refuges at risk. It violates the most basic principles of the Public Trust Doctrine and holds hostage public lands and public resources to serve the very narrow political agenda of the occupiers. The occupiers have used the flimsiest of pretexts to justify their actions -- the conviction of two local ranchers in a case involving arson and poaching on public lands. Notably, neither the local community or the individuals convicted have requested or endorsed the occupation or the assistance of militia groups."
... CW: Oh yeah? So what? According to the Society's own statement, Teddy Roosevelt created the Malheur refuge in 1908, in what sounds to me very much like an executive action. So no doubt unconstitooshunal. BTW, these federal lands belong to all of us, not to a few ranchers, miners & sundry armed squatters. There is nothing more populist than lands owned in common. ...
... Janell Ross of the Washington Post: "The sometimes-coded but increasingly overt ways that some Americans are presumed guilty and violence-prone [-- say, black ones! --] while others [-- say, white ones --] are assumed to be principled and peaceable unless and until provoked -- even when actually armed -- is remarkable.... When a group of unknown size and unknown firepower has taken over any federal building with plans and possibly some equipment to aid a years-long occupation -- and when its representative tells reporters that they would prefer to avoid violence but are prepared to die -- the kind of almost-uniform delicacy and the limits on the language [the press] used to describe the people involved becomes noteworthy itself." Read her whole post.
... David Atkins of the Washington Monthly: "Undereducated, armed angry men are often upset at Western governments for upsetting their private power apple carts because in their small, solipsistic worlds they're very used to being lords of their manors and local enforcers of bigoted frontier justice. That's as true of Afghan militants in the Taliban as it is of rural Montana militiamen.... If Bundy's little crew wants to occupy a federal building and assert that they'll use deadly violence against any police who try to extract them, then they should get what they're asking for just as surely Islamist terrorists would if they did likewise." ...
... Mark Kleiman of the Reality Base Community: "Of course it's crucial to avoid a shoot-out, but it's equally crucial to assert the rule of law. There's no need here to repeat the back-down in Nevada, and the ringleaders need to go away for long, long time. It's also crucial that Republican politicians -- most importantly, the Presidential candidates -- be forced to take a stand for or against acts of lawless violence." ...
... Kevin Drum: "These guys aren't terrorists, anyway. They're just as misguided as real terrorists, but they haven't taken anyone hostage or threatened to blow up an airplane. They're just morons with guns.... Just let them rot quietly away for a while until they finally come slinking out of their hole into the hands of federal officials. Then they can be put on trial. By that time, they'll just seem like a bunch of pitiful loons, and their 'movement' will be dead." ...
... Steve M. looks at the bigger picture: "... it's safe to assume that the effort to end federal control of these lands is not about manly constitutionalism -- it's about well-connected fat cats wanting the land under local control because local bureaucrats are more likely to be pushovers. NPR's [Kirk] Siegler says, 'States like Utah want to see more oil and gas drilling and other types of development on all that federal land' because 'they'd get more money to pay for things like schools.' The second part of that is just a smokescreen.... The local authorities just want to do whatever oil and gas moguls want them to do.... Fox watchers cheer on the militias, then vote for seemingly like-minded 'constitutionalists' who proceed to hand over the land to the greediest exploiters. Freedom!" ...
... CW: AND this goes a long way to explain why "Republican presidential candidates are staying mum."
Zahira Torres & Frank Shyong of the Los Angeles Times: "A leaking natural gas well that has displaced thousands of residents in Porter Ranch lacked a working safety valve, sparking new questions about how the facility was maintained. Attorneys for residents suing Southern California Gas Co. said the company failed to replace the safety valve when it was removed in 1979. The safety valve may not have prevented the leak, but it would have stopped the continued release of fumes pouring into the community, attorney Brian Panish said in an interview Sunday. SoCal Gas spokeswoman Melissa Bailey confirmed in an email to The Times that the well did not have 'a deep subsurface valve.' She said such a valve was not required by law."
American Hero. Justin Moyer of the Washington Post: Larry Wright, a Fayetteville, North Carolina, pastor, peacefully disarmed a man who walked into his church carrying a semi-automatic assault rifle during New Year's Eve services. The man "said he had recently been released from prison and 'intended to do something terrible,' as CNN put it. Wright told NBC that the man was a military veteran suffering from post-traumatic stress syndrome."
Way Beyond
Ben Hubbard of the New York Times: "Saudi Arabia cut diplomatic ties with Iran on Sunday and gave Iranian diplomats 48 hours to leave the kingdom, marking a swift escalation in a strategic and sectarian rivalry that underpins conflicts across the Middle East." ...
... Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "Bahrain joined Saudi Arabia in severing diplomatic relations with Iran on Monday as the worst crisis in three decades between the region's rival Sunni and Shiite powers drew worldwide expressions of alarm. Russia offered to mediate in the feud and China was among the nations expressing concern at the implications of the rupture...." ...
... Update. Thomas Erdbrink of the New York Times: "Three Sunni-led countries joined Saudi Arabia on Monday in severing or downgrading diplomatic ties with Iran, worsening a geopolitical conflict with sectarian dimensions in one of the world's most volatile regions."
Martin Evans of the (U.K.) Telegraph: "Intelligence agencies were hunting a new 'Jihadi John' after an Islamic extremist with a British accent murdered five men accused of spying for the UK."
Christopher Sherman & Maria Verza of the AP: "Three people, including a minor, were being held Sunday in the slaying of a newly inaugurated mayor just hours into her term in a gang-troubled central Mexican city. Morelos Gov. Graco Ramirez ordered flags on state buildings flown at half-staff and called for three days of mourning following the killing of Temixco Mayor Gisela Mota."
Dan Bilefsky introduced new identity checks on Monday on travelers arriving from Denmark, and Denmark swiftly followed suit along its border with Germany. The steps by the two Scandinavian countries represented another step in the erosion of the ideal of borderless travel across most of the European Union, amid rising concerns about the economic and security risks posed by the tide of migration."
News Ledes
Washington Post: "The body of Craig Strickland has been found more than a week after the country singer went missing during a severe storm. Strickland, the 29-year-old frontman for Backroad Anthem, had gone duck hunting with his friend Chase Morland on Dec. 27 when a severe, spring-like weather system hit the Kaw Lake area in Oklahoma. A search party began looking for them that night, and Morland's body was found the following day. A capsized boat the two had used was also recovered."
New York Times: "Stocks worldwide tumbled in the first trading day of 2016, as fresh fears about a slowdown in China's economy ignited concerns about global growth." ...
... Bloomberg: "Financial markets are starting 2016 on a bleak note and China is at the center of it. Stocks crumbled around the world, with emerging markets falling the most since August and European equities heading for the worst first day of trading ever, as slowing manufacturing triggered a selloff that halted equity trading in Shanghai."