The Commentariat -- Nov. 2, 2015

Internal links removed.

Liam Stack of the New York Times: "Fred D. Thompson, a former United States senator, actor and presidential candidate, died in Nashville, on Sunday, his family said in a statement. He was 73."

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Obama plans to announce a series of small initiatives on Monday intended to make it easier for former prisoners to find jobs and live in subsidized housing, part of his broader drive to remake the criminal justice system.In a trip to Newark, Mr. Obama will visit a residential drug-treatment center, Integrity House, to highlight efforts to ease the re-entry of offenders leaving prison."

Washington Homeless Man Discovered to Be Third in Line for Presidency. Scott Wong of the Hill: Even as Speaker of the House, Paul Ryan will continue to spend his nights sleeping on a cot in his old office. ...

... Paul Ryan, Media Rock Star. Jake Sherman of Politico: "Speaker Paul Ryan has hired eight communications staffers as he builds what he promises will be a large-scale press shop to lead the GOP messaging operation. Ryan (R-Wis.) has said he'll spend a lot of time on television communicating the party's message. He plans to hire upward of a dozen communications hands.... In what was, perhaps, a sign of things to come, Ryan went on all five Sunday morning news shows, just days after capturing the speakership."

Carl Hulse of the New York Times: "The big action in the House [this week] will be the consideration of a six-year, $325 billion highway and infrastructure measure as lawmakers look for a long-term resolution to a problem that has tied them in knots for years. The existing highway program last week was granted its 35th temporary extension since 2009 -- until Nov. 20.... But a few potholes are ahead. Neither the House nor a Senate bill approved in July have funding for the full program, so negotiators will have to smooth out that little wrinkle. And the final bill could be the vehicle to renew the Export-Import Bank, which many House conservatives oppose. So Ryan could face early tests on a measure that everyone agrees is long overdue."

Jessica Silver-Greenberg & Michael Corkery of the New York Times: "Over the last 10 years, thousands of businesses across the country -- from big corporations to storefront shops -- have used arbitration to create an alternate system of justice. There, rules tend to favor businesses, and judges and juries have been replaced by arbitrators who commonly consider the companies their clients, The Times found. The change has been swift and virtually unnoticed, even though it has meant that tens of millions of Americans have lost a fundamental right: their day in court.... All it took was adding simple arbitration clauses to contracts that most employees and consumers do not even read. Yet at stake are claims of medical malpractice, sexual harassment, hate crimes, discrimination, theft, fraud, elder abuse and wrongful death...."

Michelle Obama, in the Atlantic: "... we cannot address our girls' education crisis until we address the broader cultural beliefs and practices that can help cause and perpetuate this crisis. And that is precisely the message I intend to deliver this week when I travel to the Middle East."

Laurie Goodstein of the New York Times: "The F.B.I. is about to introduce an interactive program it developed for teachers and students, aimed at training them to prevent young people from being drawn into violent extremism. But Muslim, Arab and other religious and civil rights leaders who were invited to preview the program have raised strong objections, saying it focuses almost entirely on Islamic extremism, which they say has not been a factor in the epidemic of school shootings and attacks in the United States."

Carol Morello of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State John F. Kerry sat down Sunday with the leader of Uzbekistan, an authoritarian nation that routinely persecutes government critics, and discussed the potential for cooperation on trade, security and the environment if it improves its human rights record.... When a Washington Post reporter [Morello] called out a question about human rights at the conclusion of Kerry's meeting with Karimov, an Uzbek official and an American wearing a 'diplomatic security' pin each took her by an arm and firmly guided her from the room." Video of Morello's removal is here.

Presidential Race

** Jonathan Chait: Bernie "Sanders's campaign has made socialism relevant to the national political debate for the first time since Eugene V. Debs garnered 6 percent of the vote in 1912. It is looking increasingly likely that the 2016 election will mark a historical turning point in the relationship of socialism to mainstream politics in the United States.... That socialism is no longer a dirty word has freaked out conservatives.

     ... American Bridge, the superPAC which produced this spot, is allied with Clinton.

Factual Bias -- Paul Krugman Answers Carly Fiorina: "Last year the economists Alan Blinder and Mark Watson circulated a paper comparing economic performance under Democratic and Republican presidents since 1947. Under Democrats, the economy grew, on average, 4.35 percent per year; under Republicans, only 2.54 percent. Over the whole period, the economy was in recession for 49 quarters; Democrats held the White House during only eight of those quarters.... Yes, the recovery from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 has been sluggish. Even so, the Obama record compares favorably on a number of indicators with that of George W. Bush. In particular, despite all the talk about job-killing policies, private-sector employment is eight million higher than it was when Barack Obama took office, twice the job gains achieved under his predecessor before the recession struck."

Adios, GOP. Greg Sargent: "Republicans are pulling out of their only scheduled debate that would be aired on a Spanish-language TV network. So Democrats may respond by holding a second gathering aired on one." ....

... Robert Costa & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus decided late Sunday to shake up his senior staff in response to campaigns' complaints about the party's management of primary debates." ...

     ... Update: Dave Weigel publishes a copy of the draft letter attorney Ben Ginsburg brought to the meeting. "The campaigns agreed that more needed to be done. Ginsberg agreed, and the campaigns left the Hilton Alexandria Old Town expecting to see a new list of demands, incorporating their ideas, in the next few days." Almost as funny as the "ransom note" Oliver Willis found (see below). ...

... Katherine Faulders, et al., of ABC News: "Representatives for many of the Republican presidential candidates have gathered tonight near Washington, DC to work on reshaping their party's primary debates. The meeting comes in the wake of last week's widely-criticized debate, hosted by CNBC, which drew sharp rebukes from the Republican National Committee as well as many of the candidates. The campaign of former neurosurgeon Ben Carson organized Sunday night's summit. Carson came out swinging following the debate in Colorado, saying it 'so clearly demonstrated a need for change in format,' and criticizing what he called the "gotcha questions" posed by the moderators." With video. ...

... Update. Ashley Parker of the New York Times: The campaigns' representatives "emerged with a modest list of demands, including opening and closing statements of at least 30 seconds; 'parity and integrity' on questions, meaning that all candidates would receive similarly substantive questions; no so-called lightning rounds; and approval of any graphics that are aired during the debate. The campaign representatives also moved to take the Republican National Committee out of the debate negotiating process.... The TV networks have indicated no willingness to relinquish editorial control." ...

     ... Politico's story, by Alex Isenstadt, is here. ...

     ... Dave Weigel & Robert Costa: During the meeting, "Bush campaign manager Danny Diaz recommended that Telemundo be reinstated after being dropped along with NBC. But the campaign of businessman Donald Trump, represented by manager Corey Lewandowski, threatened to boycott a debate if the Spanish-language network that Trump has clashed with was granted one." ...

Oliver Willis ‏@owillis

hey everyone i just found the #GOPDebate ransom note #GOPdebatedemands

... David Ferguson of the Raw Story found a few more demands, culled from Twitter. CW: Just shows how clueless the GOP candidates are. Isn't it obvious that their whines & demands necessitated ridicule? ...

I think we should have moderators who are interested in disseminating the information about the candidates, as opposed to, you know, 'gotcha' 'you did this' and 'defend yourself on that.' You know, what is very important right now, we have so many incredible problems that are facing us as a nation, you know.... -- Ben Carson, on ABC's "This Week"

... John Amato of Crooks & Liars: "Ben Carson appeared on ABC's This Week and explained the problems he has with the debate format as it is. He's not a man who has ever been involved in politics so he finds them distasteful in many ways including being asked questions about past behavior.... In Carson's world, the candidates should gather round, eat cheese and crackers, talk a little policy with Sean Hannity, let the voters get to know them. Explain their thoughts without having to bother about facts and other nonsensical things." ...

     ... CW: Well, I agree with Ole Doc there. CNBC treated these candidates like criminals, making them stand for hours, interrogating them about past crimes & misdemeanors, cutting off their long-winded responses, berating them for not answering the questions -- AND providing no sustenance except water. Where were the cheese & crackers? Wine? ...

... digby is catching up with Reality Chex contributors: "Basically [Ben Carson] thinks 'debates' should be infomercials where a 'host' acts as if he or she is "interviewing" the salesman and the 'audience' pretends to be thrilled and claps wildly at every applause line.... I think Carson may be a person who suffers from psychological disorder called extreme gullibility. It seems to me that he simply believes everything he reads and sees. And since he's also in the wingnut bubble he reads and sees a whole lot of crazy rubbish.... Also too, very creepy. His preternatural calm is started to really freak me out." ...

... ** David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "It should astonish even the jaded that Republicans are calling CNBC, that stodgy home of supply-side Wall Street cheerleading, an agent of the left. Still apoplectic at being asked some basic questions at the debate, Republican candidates are doubling down on their freakout.... Donald Trump, who openly lied during the debate about what is on his own website, called debate moderator John Harwood a 'dope' and a 'fool.' All of this after Republican candidates spewed forth one of the most embarrassing explosion of lies ever witnessed during a television presidential debate. The press is facing an existential threat. With Republicans increasingly unashamed to tell grandiose lies and respond to any press criticism with derogatory insults and whines about media bias as well as blackmail threats to cancel appearances if the questions are too tough, the press must decide how to respond on two fronts. First, it must decide how to present an objective face while acknowledging that both sides do not, in fact, behave equally badly. Second, it must determine whether it will continue to ask the tough questions that need answers regardless of the threats made by the GOP, or whether it will meekly submit to the demands for kid-glove treatment.... Tthe GOP has far more to fear from the press than the other way around."

... Steve M.: "I think we're supposed to believe that the various Republican presidential candidates will be tough enough to defend America against its enemies because they're tough enough to wage war on ... John Harwood. ...

... Charles Blow: "Marco Rubio is thought to have won the last debate, not so much because he brilliantly articulated reasonable, or intellectually invigorating policy -- 'I'm against anything that's bad for my mother' is a kindergarten truism, not a nuanced policy position -- but because he remained relatively even and unperturbed. And yet, it's [Ben] Carson who is now the front-runner, one of the candidates who spoke the least during the last debate and who seemed to want to say nothing at all. And that candidate is the one worrying about the precious few questions he will have to answer."

David Graham of the Atlantic: Marco Rubio's personal financial problems don't matter much. "The president's job isn't to be accountant-in-chief, and the most business-astute presidents have tended to be mediocre at best in the White House, while failed haberdasher Harry Truman is well regarded. That means questions about Rubio's finances are perhaps most useful as a litmus test about his probity. Since voters seem to generally find Rubio trustworthy, that's a battle he’s in a good position to win in the absence of clear evidence of wrongdoing."

Jeb! Has No Idea What His Campaign Is Doing. Michelle Lee of the Washington Post: "... Jeb Bush said he did not see a 112-page internal memo by his campaign that included a presentation to donors on why Sen. Marco Rubio was a 'risky bet' before the document became public.... 'I didn't see it," Bush answered. 'It's your campaign.... You don't know this memo? You don't know this PowerPoint?' Todd asked about the memo, obtained by the U.S. News and World Report. 'I read about it when it was leaked, for sure. I didn't know about the PowerPoint....'" CW: Yo, Jeb!, in these situations, you're supposed to blame an intern. ...

Jeb! Has Okay Healthcare Plan -- for the Rich. Washington Post Editors: Jeb!'s plan, centered on "health spending accounts," "would help high-income people avoid taxes, but they wouldn't much help people lacking spare wages to deposit into them. Bush would drag the country through another massive policy transition in order to reduce the value of health coverage now available to vulnerable people. He would enact a plan premised on the hope that the states will solve all of the hardest problems. If this is the alternative, better to keep Obamacare and move on."

Jordan Phelps of ABC News: "... Carly Fiorina acknowledged that she was incorrect during last week's primary debate when she claimed '92 percent of the jobs lost during [President] Barack Obama's first term belonged to women.' After the debate, fact checkers pointed out Fiorina had recycled the statistic from former Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney, who first made the claim in the 2012 election. It rated 'Mostly False' by Politifact four years ago.... Until now, Fiorina has defended her use of the "92 percent" figure as accurate. 'The fact-checkers are correct,' she said. 'The 92 percent -- it turns out -- was the first three and a half years of [President] Barack Obama's term and in the final six months of his term things improved,' she said Sunday. Fiorina then criticized the 'liberal media' for picking apart the statistic rather than her broader argument, which was that liberal polices are bad for women economically." ...

... digby: "But she also kept on with the misleading nonsense anyway.... Here's the Fact Check which explains that the men had already lost their jobs under George W. Bush's Great Recession when Obama took office.... '... First, Obama cannot be held entirely accountable for the employment picture on the day he took office.... Second, by choosing figures from January 2009, months into the recession, the statement ignored the millions of jobs lost before then, when most of the job loss fell on men. In every recession, men are the first to take the hit, followed by women." ...

It is factually true that the number of women living in extreme poverty is at the highest rate in recorded history. It is factually true that 16.1 percent of women live below the poverty line, the highest level in 20 years. It is factually true that 3 million women have fallen into poverty. -- Carly Fiorina, on ABC's "This Week," Sunday

... Kevin Drum: Fiorina only looked at the women's poverty rate for the past 20 years. Why? Because the highest levels ever were in 1982, under Ronald Reagan, and 1992, under George H.W. Bush. It's true that the absolute number of women in poverty is at its highest level ever. Needless to say, this is only because the population is bigger than it was under Reagan and Bush. The current rate of women in poverty is indeed 16.1 percent according to the Census Bureau. Does this mean that liberal policies are bad for women? Well, that number went up 3 percent during George W. Bush's term and has (so far) gone down 0.2 percent during Barack Obama's term. I report, you decide. Since Fiorina is now dedicated to getting her facts straight, I figured she'd appreciate this clarification. You're welcome, Carly."

Rick Hertzberg of the New Yorker: In last week's debate, Ted Cruz accused Bernie Sanders (one infers) of being a Bolshevik. "Well, let's see. The Bolshevik faction was prepared to split the party of which they were members. Bolsheviks scorned Mensheviks as socialists in name only, and they utterly despised the Kadets. The Bolshevik deputies in the State Duma were strangers to any notion of reaching across the aisle. The Bolsheviks were extremists. When they couldn't get their way, they shut down the government. They had no problem with repudiating the public debt. They stockpiled guns. They were ideologically rigid fanatics who regarded those who disagreed with them, however slightly, as enemies. Their leader, educated at the finest schools, was known for his cold intelligence, his contempt for compromise, his fondness for tea, his eloquence and debating skills, and his steely determination to achieve power by unconventional, even disruptive, means. Step forward, People's Commissar Cruz!"

Beyond the Beltway

How Stupid Are Your State's Legislators? New York Times Editors: "The Florida Legislature, never one to leave bad enough alone when it comes to gun safety, is returning to the state's notorious Stand Your Ground law to make it even easier for defendants to use it as a shield for intimidating and shooting people. Senate committees approved legislation this month that would relieve defendants of the need to prove that they were in fear for their lives. Instead, prosecutors would be required to disprove the self-defense claim in a pretrial evidentiary hearing.... In aiming to compound the deadliness of the current law, Florida can only worsen its reputation as the Gunshine State. The issue before the Legislature should be full repeal of the law, not another gift to the gun zealots." CW: I wrote to my state senator. She's a Republican & doesn't look too bright. Apologies for the tautology.

WXII TV: "A Winston-Salem State University student was killed and another student was injured in an on-campus shooting early Sunday morning. Anthony White Jr., 19, of Charlotte, died at the scene of the shooting reported around 1:20 a.m.... The injured student was found nearby with non life-threatening injuries and treated and released from a hospital." CW: Maybe the killer was standing his ground.

News Ledes

New York Times: "Two Syrian activists who used video and social media to expose human rights abuses committed by the Islamic State were tracked down by jihadists and killed in their home in a southern Turkish city, according to their colleagues. The Islamic State ... released a graphic video claiming responsibility for their deaths on Sunday."

Guardian: "A new cancer treatment strategy is on the horizon that experts say could be a game-changer and spare patients the extreme side effects of existing options such as chemotherapy.... Last week the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) for the first time approved a single treatment that can intelligently target cancer cells while leaving healthy ones alone, and simultaneously stimulate the immune system to fight the cancer itself."

New York Times: "The Vatican announced on Monday that two members of a commission set up by Pope Francis to study financial operations at the Holy See had been arrested on suspicion of leaking confidential documents to journalists."

Reuters: "The Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt on Saturday was not struck from the outside and the pilot did not make a distress call before it disappeared from radar, a source in the committee analyzing the black box recorders said." ...

... AP: "Only an external impact could have caused a Russian plane to dive into the Egyptian desert, killing all 224 people on board, the airline said Monday, adding to a series of incomplete and confusing statements from investigators that left unclear why the plane broke up in mid-flight."

Reuters: "Iran has begun decommissioning uranium enrichment centrifuges under the terms of the nuclear deal struck with six world powers in July, Tehran's nuclear chief was quoted as saying on Monday during a visit to Tokyo. 'We have started the preliminary work' on implementing the agreement, Iran's Atomic Energy Organization chief Ali Akbar Salehi was quoted as saying by Japan's Kyodo news agency...."

Washington Post: "The leaders of South Korea and Japan held their first formal summit in three and a half years Monday, a meeting that was almost entirely devoid of substance, but will nevertheless come as a relief to Washington, which has despaired about tensions between its two key Asian allies."

AP: "Iraqi lawmakers have voted to limit the powers of the country's prime minister in enacting reforms, forcing him to seek parliament's approval before going ahead and implementing new measures."

The Commentariat -- Nov. 1, 2015

Internal links removed.

Scott Wong of the Hill: "New Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Sunday dismissed Democrats' calls for a paid family leave law as another 'federal entitlement,' and said his position isn't at odds with recent remarks that he wants to spend weekends with his young family in Wisconsin.... Ryan has said he wouldn't be like other modern Speakers who criss-cross the country on weekends to raise cash for the party; instead, he said he'll return home each weekend to his native Janesville, Wis., where his wife and three children live. But Democrats pounced on him, saying he's a hypocrite for wanting time with his own family while denying mandatory paid time off for other hard-working Americans."

Matt Sedensky & Nomann Merchant of the AP: "In a yearlong investigation of sexual misconduct by U.S. law enforcement, The Associated Press uncovered about 1,000 officers who lost their badges in a six-year period for rape, sodomy and other sexual assault; sex crimes that included possession of child pornography; or sexual misconduct such as propositioning citizens or having consensual but prohibited on-duty intercourse." ...

... Here the AP cites "10 cases from across the U.S. that reflect how such crimes can occur, and the devastation they leave behind. Most of the officers have been convicted and are serving time. Some await trial."

Diane Horvath-Cosper, in a Washington Post op-ed: "m an obstetrician-gynecologist. Among the many medical services I provide my patients, I perform abortions for women who need them. That's made me a target for harassment online and in person over the course of my career.... Last year, a survey conducted for the Feminist Majority Foundation found that nearly 20 percent of clinics have been subject to the most severe types of anti-abortion violence, including stalking, facility invasions and blockades.... Americans of good conscience can disagree about the morality of abortion, but we should all agree that no physicians ought to be terrorized for doing their jobs."

Guardian: "Secretary of State John Kerry said on Saturday American special operations troops being sent to Syria would only fight Islamic State militants and would not become involved in the country's long-running civil war. As he did so, US-backed rebels attacked Isis in the north-east of the country. Deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken, meanwhile, told a policy conference in Bahrain Moscow's intervention in the Syrian conflict would have the unintended consequences of drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region."

Presidential Race

John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Saturday that he thinks the Democratic race for the White House has become too personal as supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton have accused him and his campaign of taking on a sexist tone. 'I do, and I think that is unfortunate,' Sanders told reporters at a news conference called [in Concord, N.H.,] to tout endorsements from a statewide postal workers union and two local trade unions.... Sanders has been fending off suggestions of sexism from Clinton boosters since late last week, when Clinton took issue with one of Sanders's comments on gun control from the first Democratic debate in Las Vegas. Sanders said that he favors sensible solutions to reduce violence but told Clinton that 'all the shouting in the world is not going to do what I hope all of us want.'"

Nick Gass of Politico picks out the "13 must-read Clinton e-mails." CW: If you don't read them, you'll survive. They sound like your e-mails & mine, except Ben Affleck never writes to me (as far as I recall). Also, I never want to learn how to access emoticons. I'd like to learn how to get rid of them, tho -- they pop up when I try to put letters or in parentheses. 😒

Seinfeld on the Potomac -- A Party about Nothing. David McCabe of the Hill: "mer Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) says he saw 'very little substance' on display at Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate. 'I felt that the entire portion that I watched, maybe the first hour and 20 minutes, once again was a good bit of showmanship. Very little substance in terms of what candidates are prepared to do for this country,' he [said]...." ...

, Ctd. Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "With 10 Republican presidential candidates together at a forum [in Des Moines, Iowa,] on Saturday, three days after their raucous debate in Colorado, several took shots at their new common enemy: the debate moderators, eliciting loud applause from hundreds of Iowa voters.... But some other candidates ... argu[ed] that facing critical questions is part of auditioning for the job of presidential nominee. 'If you can't handle that stage, you’ve got no chance of handling Hillary Clinton,' said Gov. Chris Christie...." ...

... Bradford Richardson of the Hill: "Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) says the moderators at CNBC's GOP presidential debate were 'left-wing operatives' trying to weaken Republican presidential candidates. He added future debates should be hosted by moderators who have voted in the Republican primary at least once in their lives." CW: Yeah. Like Tea Party-instigator Rick Santelli & supply-sider Larry Kudlow (who is running as a Republican for the Senate). This doesn't show how right-wing Ted is; it shows what a grifter he is. He's fundraising on standing up to "left-wing operatives."

     ... So then Cruz said that instead of having to endure the "attacks" of "left-wing liberals" (a tautology, but so what?), the debates should be moderated by "real journalists." C'mon, Ted, name names: "[He] suggested a debate should be hosted by conservative radio hosts Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin." Real journalists, all. ...

... Dave Weigel, et al., of the Washington Post: "The list of possible reforms to future Republican debates is growing as several campaigns get ready for a Sunday evening meeting in a northern Virginia hotel. There's one point of agreement: Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus has let them down, and it is time for the candidates to take over the process."

I say this somewhat in jest, at least there was someone who fared worse in the last debate than me: CNBC. I know I have to get better. I don't have this gigantic ego that says, 'Well they're just stupid. Iowa voters don't understand me.' But also, I'm a really competitive guy. -- Jeb Bush, at a Des Moines, Iowa, rally, Saturday ...

... Maureen Dowd, as is her wont, psychoanalyzes the Dubya & Jeb! dynamic.

Beyond the Beltway

Matt Steiner of the Colorado Springs Gazette: "Gunfire rang out Saturday morning east of downtown Colorado Springs, leaving bullet-riddled bodies lying in ... North Prospect Street and in front of a Wendy's restaurant.... Police confirmed Saturday afternoon that three victims were killed by a gunman with a rifle. The suspected shooter was killed in a shootout with police. He was gunned down by Colorado Springs police after he apparently turned and began shooting at police."

News Ledes

Washington Post: "A Russian plane that crashed in Egypt over the weekend broke up in midair, a senior Russian aviation official said after visiting the crash site in the Sinai Peninsula on Sunday. All 224 people aboard were killed. It was too early to tell what caused the disaster, said Viktor Sorochenko, an official with the Interstate Aviation Committee, according to Russia's Interfax news agency."

BBC News: "A Bangladeshi publisher of secular books has been hacked to death in the capital Dhaka in the second attack of its kind on Saturday, police say. Faisal Arefin Dipon, 43, was killed at his office in the city centre, hours after another publisher and two secular writers were injured in an attack. A local affiliate of al-Qaeda said it carried out the attacks. There has been a series of attacks on secularists since blogger Avijit Roy was hacked to death in February."

AP: "Searchers using high-tech sonars have discovered the deep-water wreckage of a vessel believed to be the cargo ship El Faro, which went missing Oct. 1 with 33 crewmembers during Hurricane Joaquin, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said late Saturday. The federal agency said the wreckage is some 15,000 feet below the water's surface and its identity still must be confirmed by sending down a remotely operated deep ocean vehicle."

Guardian: "Turkish voters are going to the polls in parliamentary elections that could end more than a decade of single-party rule by the Justice and Development party (AKP). Voting stations around the country opened on Sunday morning in the snap elections, which were called by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after negotiations to form a coalition with the opposition following an inconclusive vote in June fell apart." ...

     ... New York Times UPDATE: "In a stunning electoral comeback, the Islamist party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regained its majority in Parliament on Sunday, ensuring Mr. Erdogan's continued dominance of Turkish politics after months of political turmoil and violence. The result will permit Mr. Erdogan to maintain his position as the country's pre-eminent political figure while pushing the boundaries of the constitutional limits of the presidency, a largely ceremonial position."

The Commentariat -- October 31, 2015

Internal links removed.

Mike Luckovich of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Robert Pear & Amy Goodnough of the New York Times: "Health insurance consumers logging into HealthCare.gov on Sunday for the first day of the Affordable Care Act's third open enrollment season may be in for sticker shock, unless they are willing to shop around. Federal officials acknowledged on Friday that many people would need to pick new plans to avoid substantial increases in premiums.

White House: "In this week's address, the President spoke to the need for meaningful criminal justice reform in America":

Helene Cooper & Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Obama will deploy a small number of American Special Operations forces to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria, a United States official said. The White House is expected to make the announcement on Friday...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Scott Wong of the Hill: "President Barack Obama placed a call to John Boehner on his penultimate day as Speaker..... 'He said, "Boehner, man, I'm gonna miss you,"' Boehner recalled in an interview broadcast Friday on Fox News. 'Yes you are Mr. President. Yes you are,' Boehner replied." CW: Because they both know Paul Ryan is a lying, backstabbing weasel & confederate tool. ...

... An example of which was, not surprisingly, quickly forthcoming. Nicole Duran of the Washington Examiner: "It would be 'ridiculous' to bring up legislation aimed at overhauling the country's immigration laws to the House floor when 'a president that we can't trust' is in office, Ryan told a small group of Wisconsin reporters during a conference call Friday morning. Ryan has previously supported some immigration reform legislation. But without consensus among Republicans on 'such a controversial issue,' he won't bring any legislation to the floor except border security provisions, Ryan said." Via Paul Waldman. ...

... CW: Ryan does not tell the reporters he signed a pledge letter to the Crazy Caucus, promising not to bring up immigration reform while President Obama was in office. Then he blames the "untrustworthy" President for his refusal to stand up to the wingers in his own party. As I said, before I read Duran's report, he's "a lying, backstabbing weasel & confederate tool." And he proved it one sentence the day after he became speaker.

... digby: "By the way, [Boehner] still blames the president for the grand Bargain falling apart. It isn't true. The House wingnuts ruined that one. Thank goodness."

You're Screwed! Jessica Silver-Greenberg & Robert Gebeloff of the New York Times: "By banning class actions, companies have essentially disabled consumer challenges to practices like predatory lending, wage theft and discrimination, court records show. 'This is among the most profound shifts in our legal history,' William G. Young, a federal judge in Boston who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan, said in an interview. 'Ominously, business has a good chance of opting out of the legal system altogether and misbehaving without reproach.'... More than a decade in the making, the move to block class actions was engineered by a Wall Street-led coalition of credit card companies and retailers.... One of the players behind the scenes, The Times found, was John G. Roberts Jr.," who represented Discover Bank. CW: Roberts has a new job now.

Rachel Swarns of the New York Times: "Outlawed decades ago, redlining has re-emerged as a serious concern among regulators as banks have sharply retreated from providing home loans to African-Americans in the wake of the financial crisis. Over just the past 12 months, federal, state and city officials have successfully required banks to expand minority lending programs and, in some instances, to pay penalties as part of redlining settlements in Buffalo; Milwaukee; Providence, R.I.; Rochester; and St. Louis. And more banks are facing scrutiny. The Justice Department now has more active redlining investigations underway than at any other time in the past seven years, officials said."

** Larry Thompson, a deputy AG in the Bush II administration, in a New York Times op-ed: "On Monday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Foster v. Chatman, a case that challenges the all-too-common practice by which prosecutors deliberately exclude African-Americans from criminal juries. The Supreme Court tried to outlaw this practice in 1986 through its landmark ruling in Batson v. Kentucky. But prosecutors routinely ignore that decision, excluding black jurors because of marital status, manner of dress, last names and other allegedly 'race neutral' reasons.... Interracial juries make fewer factual errors, deliberate longer and consider a wider variety of perspectives than all-white juries, according to several studies.... In 2010, the Equal Justice Initiative, a nonprofit law firm, studied eight Southern states -- Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee -- and found the problem to be rampant."

Alex Thompson in Politico Magazine: "Voters have accepted all sorts of behavioral warts and missteps in their political candidates.... Yet one large taboo remains stubbornly fixed -- mental illness.... For a president or a candidate, it's the 'kiss of death,; says Burton Lee, George H.W. Bush's presidential physician.... Yet, a review of the historical record finds that past commanders in chief, even well-regarded ones, struggled with mental health problems throughout their presidencies.... [Richard] Nixon and John F. Kennedy clandestinely filled their medicine cabinets with psychotropic drugs, recently uncovered documents reveal."

Gail Collins: "... it's absolutely crazy that the bigger [drones] -- the ones capable of flying in the same airspace as a helicopter or dropping a mystery package on a nuclear power plant -- aren't being licensed and strictly regulated.... A drone flew over the Oklahoma State Penitentiary this week, carrying a bundle of drugs and hacksaw blades dangling from a fishing line. Fortunately, it crashed before any inmates could grab the loot. Meanwhile, a drone flew into power lines in West Hollywood and knocked one to the ground, leaving about 700 customers without electricity.... When recreational drones first came on the market, Congress ... basically told the F.A.A. to keep its hands off.... You shouldn't be able to go on the web, make three clicks and -- with no training whatsoever -- buy a product that could threaten public safety. That's only true for drones. And of course, in some states, handguns."

This video was headed for Infotainment. Until I listened to it:

In the Wake of ISIS. Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "When Islamic State fighters fled [Tal Abyad, a] northern Syrian town in June, they took with them the electricity generators, the water pumps, the hospital equipment and pretty much everything else that had helped sustain the semblance that they ran a functioning state. They left behind their graffiti, their instruments of torture, the block of wood on which they beheaded their victims, the cage in which they punished smokers -- and a community riven with suspicion and distrust. Today, Tal Abyad is a tense and troubled place. Its new Kurdish masters are seeking to assert their control over a mixed town that, at least until recently, had an Arab majority -- some of whom were not entirely unhappy to be governed by the Islamic State.... As the U.S. military prepares to deploy 50 Special Operations troops to the vicinity ahead of a new focus on the Islamic State's self-styled capital of Raqqa, 60 miles to the south, Tal Abyad represents something of a test also for a strategy that will rely heavily on the Kurdish People's Protection Units, or YPG, to take control of Arab areas."

Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times: "After more than a week of local and international condemnation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel issued a statement on Friday retracting his accusation that it was a Palestinian cleric who gave Hitler the idea of annihilating Europe's Jews during World War II.... 'Contrary to the impression that was created, I did not mean to claim that in his conversation with Hitler in November 1941 the Mufti convinced him to adopt the Final Solution. The Nazis decided on that by themselves.'"

Presidential Race

Margaret Newkirk of Bloomberg: "Speaking to several hundred black college students in Georgia, Hillary Clinton on Friday promised to fight racial profiling, private prisons and the practice of asking about criminal records on initial job applications. The former secretary of state and Democratic front-runner spoke over loud chants of 'black lives matter' and opposing cries of 'let her talk' as protesters interrupted the event at Clark Atlanta University." ...

... Justin Fishel of ABC News: "Today's release of over 7,000 pages of Hillary Clinton email marks the halfway point for the State Department, which is attempting to meet a federal court's mandate to release all 55,000 pages of her email collection by January 2016. The department has now published roughly 27,000 pages of her emails on its public records website that were once stored on Clinton's now-infamous private server.... Most of the emails available for review online tend to contain more of the same: mundane yet sometimes entertaining communications between Clinton and her aides."

Michael Shear & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "The White House will try to block the release of a handful of emails between President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, citing longstanding precedent invoked by presidents of both parties to keep presidential communications confidential, officials said Friday. The State Department discovered the emails between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton as part of its effort to release the former secretary's emails, several thousand more of which were scheduled to be made public on Friday. Mr. Obama's correspondence was forwarded for review to the White House, which has decided against release." ...

     ... Update. Julia Edwards of Reuters: "The White House will not allow the release of emails exchanged between President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton from when she was secretary of state, a senior administration official said on Friday. The emails may be withheld until after Obama leaves office under the Presidential Records Act, according to the White House, which governs public access to the president's records."

New York Times Editors: "... none [of the Republican presidential candidates] has a tax plan coherent enough to be the basis of a substantive discussion, let alone one that could meet the nation's challenges.... Quick-and-dirty calculations of proposals from Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz show red ink running into the trillions of dollars.... The tax proposals from Jeb Bush, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, while not as fantastical as those of Mr. Cruz and [Ben] Carson, all make big and broad cuts, mostly to benefit the wealthiest Americans, including an end to the estate tax, cuts in tax rates and enhanced tax breaks for investments.... All of these candidates deny fiscal reality.... The Democratic candidates ... have called for high-end tax increases, while keeping proposed tax cuts targeted on low- or middle-income Americans. They have also called for new taxes on financial transactions. Most important, their tax plans are part of broader economic proposals to raise wages, including support for a higher minimum wage, unions, expanded profit-sharing and employee ownership."

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. -- President Harry Truman

-- 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate

Abby Phillip & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "With GOP anger over CNBC's handling of Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate boiling over, the Republican National Committee announced Friday that it was suspending its partnership with NBC News for an upcoming debate in February.In a letter to NBC News Chairman Andrew Lack, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said that their relationship for the debate, scheduled for Feb. 26 at the University of Houston, was on hold 'pending further discussion.'" Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Ashley Parker & Emily Steel of the New York Times: "The letter [from Priebus] seemed to be an attempt at damage control by the R.N.C., which many of the candidates felt had bungled its handling of the Republican debate process, after taking a more active role and 'sanctioning' debates' this year." ...

... "GOP Suspends NBC Debate Because Questions Might Be Too Hard." Jaime Fuller of New York: "Priebus also noted that the 'moderators engaged in a series of "gotcha" questions, petty and mean-spirited in tone, and designed to embarrass our candidates. What took place Wednesday night was not an attempt to give the American people a greater understanding of our candidates' policies and ideas.' He did not add that the American people would have also gained a fuller portrait of the candidates' ideas if they had not evaded, ignored, or lied in response to many of the actual policy questions they were asked, and he didn't note that the idea that a 'gotcha' question includes the entire universe of queries that could point out the weaknesses of a campaign is a disputed one." ...

... Here You Are Bid to Imagine Prince Rebus as a Tough Guy. Stop Smilng. Colin Campbell of Business Insider: "Reince Priebus ... even called the debate a 'crap sandwich' during an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity. 'I just can't tell you how pissed off I am,' Priebus said. 'It was a insanity. I mean just sitting there, seething through this thing ... thinking about hitting the circuit breaker in the auditorium -- it crossed my mind.'" ...

     ... If your imagination can't stretch that far, you can see the Hannity segment here. Hannity doesn't let Priebus speak till 2:43 minutes in. Just as well. ...

... Ed Kilgore: "In a pretty classic case of letting itself be panicked into a precipitous action by the excitement of the moment, the RNC has announced it has canceled the February 26 debate that was going to be cosponsored by NBC in order to punish the parent network for the behavior of the CNBC moderators of Wednesday night's event.... The RNC may ultimately regret setting the precedent of letting the inmates -- er, the candidates -- run the asylum -- er, the debate system.... It's ironic that the network that employs Larry Kudlow and Rick Santelli is now perpetually labeled as the agent of godless progressivism...." ...

... "Republicans Very Upset At How Bad They Looked on Wednesday." Kevin Drum: "CNBC did screw up, but mostly by failing to keep the toddlers on stage under control and being poorly prepared to deal with brazen lies delivered with a straight face.... But conservative grievance culture is once again demanding someone's head on a platter. After all, if conservatives look bad on television it's gotta be someone else's fault, right?... Jeebus. And these guys claim that they're the steely-eyed folks who can take down Putin and the ayatollah? What a bunch of crybabies." ...

... digby: "In other news, they are all very, very macho dudes who will defeat ISIS with their bare hands." ...

... Joan McCarter of Daily Kos: "What every candidate wants, apparently, is a forum to provide extended campaign commercials without anyone asking them questions about stuff they've done and said that might give voters some insight as to what kind of job they'd do as president." ...

... Ashley Parker: "Republican presidential candidates will not give opening statements at the next debate, hosted by the Fox Business Network, but they will have more time to respond to questions -- 90 seconds in their initial answer, and a 60-second rebuttal -- according to an internal logistics memo the network sent to the campaigns on Friday. The candidates will also be allowed 30-second closing statements...."...

     ... Puppies & Rainbows. CW: In lieu of opening statements, each candidate will be allowed to air a two-minute campaign video with stock images of amber waves of grain & inspirational music. The candidates will be permitted to prescreen the questions & reject any they deem "offensive," "challenging" or "inappropriate." The hosts will assume everything the candidates say is factual. Candidates are asked to criticize Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders & Barack Obama, but not each other.

Billionaire Ballot. Maggie Haberman & Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times: "One of the wealthiest and most influential Republican donors in the country is throwing his support to Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a decision that could swing millions of dollars in contributions behind Mr. Rubio at a critical point in the Republican nominating battle. The decision by the donor, Paul Singer, a billionaire New York investor, is a signal victory for Mr. Rubio in his battle with his rival Jeb Bush for the affections of major Republican patrons and the party's business wing. It comes as a major blow to Mr. Bush...." ...

... Ed Kilgore: Marco Rubio is "going to have to survive a real vetting, and the question is whether it will come from the media or from the campaign of a rival. The raw materials are there for some real problems: the man has a history of shaky personal finances, misuse of other people's money, and reliance on politically connected sugar daddies. He also has a generic response that fits in nicely with his son-of-a-bartender-and-a-maid aspirational message: unlike many of his rivals, he's not a trust fund baby or the son and brother of presidents, and hasn't worked for Lehman Brothers or married someone who works for Goldman Sachs. So yeah, he's struggled to pay bills.... In conservative mythology there's a fine line, of course, between 'struggling to pay bills' and being an undisciplined freeloader who can't be trusted to meet his obligations." ...

Laura Clawson of Daily Kos: "A crucial part of Marco Rubio's big debate victory came directly out of his ability to lie with conviction and an innocent look in his eye. Not just about his tax plan, but about his own personal finances.... [In response to a question about his personal finances, Rubio said] 'Well, you just -- you just listed a litany of discredited attacks from Democrats and my political opponents, and I'm not gonna waste 60 seconds detailing them all.' Discredited attacks? As Florida Republican Joe Scarborough said Thursday morning: 'Marco just flat-out lied to the American people, there.... And I was stunned that the moderators didn't stop there and go, "Wait a second, these are court records. What are you talking about?:... Whatever you make of Rubio's personal finances, pay attention to his lying. Because he didn't flinch, he didn't equivocate." ...

... Sean Sullivan, et al., of the Washington Post track the 17-year relationship of Mutt & Jeb!, one that had its apparent climax in this week's GOP debate. If either of these jerks becomes the GOP nominee, it will be interesting to see to what extent the other supports him.

... Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "On Thursday evening, U.S. News published a 112-page document that the Bush campaign provided to donors.... [Linked in yesterday's Commentariat.] The document highlights the campaign's plans to target Rubio.... The document says that 'Those who have looked into Marco's background in the past have been concerned with what they have found.' U.S. News, citing an anonymous Bush aide, said the reference was to 'concerns Mitt Romney's team unearthed when they vetted Rubio for vice president in 2012.'... 'As the senior Romney advisor who handled VP vetting and had access to all the vetting documents, I can say that Senator Rubio "passed" our vetting and we found nothing that disqualified him from serving as VP,' wrote [Beth] Myers, who counts herself a Bush supporter. 'The Bush aide referred to in this article is simply wrong.'" ...

... Caitlin Cruz of TPM: "The chief operating officer of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's struggling presidential campaign is out, according to a Friday report in the Wall Street Journal. Christine Ciccone was responsible for logistics and got paid about $12,000 a month."

Liar, Liar, Liar. Steve Benen: "Republican presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina has a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, insisting that the economy under President Obama is terrible.... As proof of her thesis, the failed former business executive points to the national debt (which isn't the economy), the complexity of the tax code (which also isn't the economy), the rate of small business closures (which is wildly misleading), and the notion that 92% of the jobs lost during Obama's first term belonged to women (which is a ridiculous claim recycled from Mitt Romney's mendacious talking points).... But the real gem in the piece had ... to do with a claim from his would-be Democratic successor.'... Hillary Clinton said on Oct. 13 in the first Democratic presidential debate, "The economy does better when you have a Democrat in the White House,"....' [Fiorina's] op-ed makes no effort whatsoever to contest the accuracy of Clinton's historical claim; she simply expressed incredulity, as if the claim couldn't possibly be true." But it is. ...

... CW: This is perhaps the No. 1 sales pitch for Democratic candidates. They must do more to hammer it home. When I first read fairly irrefutable proof that the economy did better under Democratic administrations, it surprised me, too -- first, because I believed the common wisdom that "Presidents can't really do anything about the economy, but they get credit or blame for it," and second, because the "common sense" conclusion would seem to be that the economy should do better under a pro-business, Republican administration. "For years the pollsters have found that most voters believe the Republicans do better with the economy." (Arthur Blaustein, 2012) Democrats must disabuse voters of this erroneous "common sense" belief, & teach them new "common sense" lessons: (1) "business" ≠ "the economy"; (2) increasing the incomes of millions & millions of Americans improves the economy more than does increasing the incomes of the rich & super-rich; & (3) a well-regulated business environment creates a more stable economy than one which permits crooks & liars to get the best of consumers & honest businesspeople.

Jim Webb, in a Washington Post op-ed, makes the case for an independent presidential candidacy, even though he has not decided whether or not he'll run. CW: "Running," for him, seemed to mean "show up at a debate". At least he won't be subject to that humiliating exercise if he runs as an independent.

Gubernatorial Race

Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times: "... nervous [Kentucky] Republicans are trying to decide whether their candidate [Matt Bevin] is a charismatic conservative who captures the anti-establishment instincts of the electorate, or a loose cannon capable of alienating voters from both parties in a state that is trending Republican. Mr. Bevin, a wealthy Louisville businessman, a Tea Party favorite and a political novice locked in a tight race with Attorney General Jack Conway, a Democrat, upended the Republican status quo in May when he squeaked past three other candidates to win a primary by 83 votes."

Beyond the Beltway

Ryan Felton of the Guardian: "St Louis police have arrested an individual in connection with a spate of arson cases at predominantly black churches. The suspect, a 35-year-old black male, was taken into custody on Thursday, said Schron Jackson, spokesperson for the St Louis police department." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Wesley Lowery of the Washington Post: "On Thursday night, just four days before the former Austin police officer was set to stand trial, a federal judge in Texas dismissed a manslaughter charge against Charles Kleinert in the 2013 shooting death of Larry Jackson Jr., an unarmed black man. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel cites a little known 1889 case that determined federal agents can be granted immunity from state criminal charges and undoes one of a handful of indictments handed down to police officers out of the thousands of fatal police shootings that have occurred in recent years." Kleinert "was a member of an FBI task force.... Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg said Thursday night that she has yet to determine if she will appeal the ruling." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

News Ledes

New York Times: "A Russian passenger airplane carrying 224 people crashed early Saturday in the central Sinai Peninsula, according to officials in Cairo and Moscow." ...

     ... New Lede: "All 224 people aboard a Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt early Saturday have been confirmed dead, officials say."

... The Guardian is liveblogging developments: "An Egyptian security officer has told Reuters he could hear the voices of trapped passengers from a section of the crashed Russian plane. The plane reportedly split into two parts." ...

... Washington Post Update: "Islamic State affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula claims to have brought down the plane in a statement circulated online on Saturday. The statement did not specify how the militants claimed to have caused the plane to crash.... And Russian officials say they have opened an investigation for gross negligence and safety violations that may have led to the crash.... Still, Air France-KLM and German carrier Lufthansa both said Saturday that they would avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula due to the unclear circumstances of the crash, the Reuters news agency reported."

Washington Post: "A multi-day operation in southern Afghanistan this month that involved 200 Special Operations forces and scores of American airstrikes targeted what was 'probably the largest' al-Qaeda training camp found in the 14-year Afghan war, the senior U.S. commander in Afghanistan said on Friday."