The Commentariat -- Nov. 13, 2014

Internal links, comic strip removed.

Karen Tumulty & Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post: "When his party got walloped last week in the midterm election, an unbowed President Obama declared that he would 'squeeze every last little bit of opportunity' to push his agenda in the waning years of his presidency. In the past few days, he has shown that he meant it." ...

... Jonathan Cohn of the New Republic: "The failed Obamacare presidency continued not to fail this week. Twice. The first time it happened was on Tuesday morning, when Craig Spencer left Bellevue Hospital in New York..... Obama's other non-failure came late on Tuesday night, when, while traveling in Asia, he announced that he'd secured a major agreement on climate change with the Chinese."

Manu Raju & John Bresnahan of Politico: "The incoming Senate minority leader, Harry Reid, is engaged in private talks with [Elizabeth Warren,] the Massachusetts freshman, to create a special leadership post for the former Harvard professor, according to several people familiar with the matter."

Gail Collins on the lame-duck session of Congress as reality show. It has possibilities.

Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "For the first time in the six-year fight over the controversial Keystone XL pipeline, both houses of Congress will hold a vote on the proposed project, giving each side in a Louisiana Senate election a chance to boost its candidate. The two lawmakers locked in the runoff contest, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D) and Rep. Bill Cassidy (R), seized control of the congressional agenda Wednesday, extracting assurances from House and Senate leaders that votes will be held to bypass President Obama's authority and authorize construction of the pipeline."

Greg Sargent: "For House Republicans, their guiding fiscal and economic lodestar remains -- and will forever remain -- the hallowed Paul Ryan budget. In its various iterations, it would repeal Obamacare, radically restructure Medicare to the detriment of beneficiaries, block-grant Medicaid, and aim most of its draconian budget cuts at programs benefiting people with lower incomes. Robert Greenstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities has said earlier versions would result in 'the largest redistribution of income from bottom to top in modern U.S. history.' So it's not surprising that House Republicans appear to be reading their big victory in the 2014 elections as a mandate to bring it back once again." (No link.)

The guy's awesome. -- Eric Cantor, on Joe Biden. Read the Cantor interview by Zeke Miller of Time.

Apparently serving 36 years in "the greatest deliberative body on Earth" is fairly good prep for handling Eric Cantor. -- Constant Weader

Daniel Drezner of the Washington Post on "the best APEC summit ever." ...

... Charles Pierce writes a brief history of political opposition to U.S. international treaties. Enter McConnell, Boehner & Inhofe, stage far-right. ...

... Christopher Flavelle of Bloomberg View: "By linking the EPA rules to Chinese action, President Barack Obama has taken the most compelling case against those rules and co-opted it overnight. For a lame-duck president, that's a pretty neat trick." ...

... Rebecca Leber of the New Republic: "Remarkably, the party that’s become synonymous with climate-change denial has avoided any mention of it this time.... Even Senator James Inhofe -- Congress' most vigilant climate-change denier -- neglected to mention what he really thinks of global warming."

Ezra Klein: "In September, the Kaiser Family Foundation looked at [48 cities] ... and found that ... on average, prices [for health insurance] are falling by 0.2 percent. 'Falling' is not a word that people associate with health-insurance premiums.... But this data [sic!] ... shows that Obamacare is doing a better job holding down costs than anyone seriously predicted.... Obamacare's competitive insurance marketplaces are actually doing what they promised to do: forcing insurers to compete for customers by cutting costs." ...

... BUT NEVER MIND ALL THAT ...

... "The Stupidity of the American Voter," Ctd. Robert Costa & Jose DelReal of the Washington Post: "Congressional Republicans seized Wednesday on controversial comments made by [Jonathan Gruber,] a former health-care consultant to the Obama administration, with one leading House conservative suggesting that hearings could be called in response as part of the GOP effort to dismantle the law in the next Congress and turn public opinion ahead of the 2016 election.... On Tuesday evening, Fox News' Megyn Kelly aired a second video, of Gruber calling voters stupid, also from 2013." ...

... Here's Kelly's segment, which suggested to me a more consequential scandal: Is Kelly wearing hair extenders? ...

... Dylan Scott of TPM scores a White House response to Gruber: "'Transparency is a key goal of the ACA: consumers now have more access to information about their health insurance than ever before,' White House spokesperson Jessica Santillo said in a statement to TPM. 'The Affordable Care Act was publicly debated over the course of 14 months, with dozens of Congressional hearings, and countless town halls, speeches, and debates. The tax credits in the law that help millions of middle class Americans afford coverage were no secret, and in fact were central to the legislation.... Not only do we disagree with [Gruber's] comments, they're simply not true.' [Emphasis added.] An administration official also noted to TPM that -- while Gruber is often described as an 'architect' of Obamacare because he was a key consultant to the administration and was heavily involved in developing the Massachusetts health reform law that served as a starting point for the ACA -- 'he did not work in the White House or play the same role in developing the Affordable Care Act.'" ...

... Reality Chek. Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "... while it's clear this is hardly Obamacare's proudest moment, the idea that Gruber's comments will suddenly swing public sentiment against Obamacare is wishful thinking. That's because, throughout the law's history, support and opposition have been pretty consistent." ...

... Brian Beutler: "The ObamaCare debate was one of the most transparent in recent memory.... The people who brought you the phony arithmetic of the Bush tax cuts and Medicare Part D and the self-financing Iraq war are upset about the ACA, which is genuinely fiscally sound. By any reasonable standard, ACA respected budgetary constraints much better than most other laws." (And, yes, Beutler typed "dupe the pubic." It happens to us all. ...

... "The Stupidity of the Republican Party." Steve M.: "Gruber is a blowhard, but no one held a gun to Republicans' heads and forced them not to read the bill, or to contradict any statement from Democrats they considered misleading. No one in the public was prevented from reading the bill. The structure of the bill was much discussed; if you wanted to know what was in it, you had every opportunity to find out. This hearing [proposed by Republicans], if it happens, is just one more GOP show trial, held only because there's an unpleasant Democrat to put in the dock, and meant, ironically, to make voters stupider, by persuading them that somehow a bill got passed the contents of which were unknowable." (Also, see Yastreblyansky's comment to Steve's post; you might label it "The Stupidity of the American Professor.") ...

... Okay, we're back to normal Ron Fournier: "... I have to admit, as a supporter, that Obamacare was built and sold on a foundation of lies."

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Wednesday wrestled with the role race may play in drawing legislative maps. The issue was an old one, but the case had a novel twist: Wednesday's challenge came from black and Democratic lawmakers in Alabama who said the State Legislature had relied too heavily on race in its 2012 state redistricting by maintaining high concentrations of black voters in some districts." Here's a transcript of the oral arguments.

Lyle Denniston of ScotusBlog: "The Supreme Court, with two Justices dissenting, on Wednesday afternoon cleared the way for same-sex couples to marry in Kansas -- the thirty-third state on the list. In a brief order, the Court voted to leave intact a federal judge's order nullifying the state's ban on same-sex marriages.... Justices Antonin Scalia and Clarence Thomas noted only that they would have granted the delay sought by the Kansas attorney general.... There was no explanation, for the order or by the dissenters.... State officials are now under a federal court requirement to start issuing marriage licenses to same-sex couples.

Annals of "Justice," Ctd.

... Richard Wolf of USA Today: "... a media campaign being unveiled Wednesday ... targets the Supreme Court.... They don't publicize their schedules. They don't state their conflicts when recusing themselves from cases. They don't put their financial disclosures online. They don't bind themselves to a code of conduct. And they don't let cameras in the courtroom. 'The Supreme Court has taken on a larger role in American life in recent years. With that increased power comes the need for increased accountability,' says Gabe Roth, former manager of the Coalition for Court Transparency.... The new effort, to be called 'Fix the Court'..., opens Wednesday with a six-figure advertising campaign aimed at politically active fans of Fox and MSNBC, as well as online sites. Funding comes from the non-partisan New Venture Fund." The group's Website is here.

** Linda Greenhouse knocks the Supremes in a way this careful journalist has never done in public remarks (that I can recall). On the Court's agreeing to hear King v. Burwell: "There was no urgency. There was no crisis of governance, not even a potential one.... This is a naked power grab by conservative justices who two years ago just missed killing the Affordable Care Act in its cradle, before it fully took effect. There is, rather, a politically manufactured argument over how to interpret several sections of the Affordable Care Act There is simply no way to describe what the court did last Friday as a neutral act." Read the whole column. ...

... Rick Hasen in the Los Angeles Times: "... it seems entirely possible that [Chief Justice John] Roberts might focus narrowly this time on the snippet of the act extending subsidies only to those insured by exchanges 'established by the state.' One argument he might make in defense of that position is that Congress has the ability to go back and fix any unclear language through a revised statute. Roberts telegraphed his willingness to take such an approach in the 2013 Shelby County vs. Holder case, which struck down a key provision of the Voting Rights Act.... Roberts' opinion for the majority ordered the provision struck because ... Congress, he reasoned, could simply [fix the problematic provision] ... if it wished to." ...

... CW: Hasen makes a good point. It is not completely unreasonable to tell Congress to fix the bill, especially when the fix is so simple. Certainly Roberts fully understands Congress wont' do that, just as he knew Congress wouldn't fix the Voting Rights Act, as Hasen points out. Gutting the VRA meant that GOP legislatures could deprive minorities of the right to vote. Gutting ObamaCare could mean that some millions of Americans would lose health insurance & some of those would get sick & die because of it. So the question may come down to this: is John Roberts more righteous than Congressional Republicans? Tune in next June to find out.

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "The biggest business lobby group in the United States is not happy that President Obama is pressuring the Federal Communications Commission to impose stricter rules on broadband providers. Hoping to ward off regulations that would prevent companies like Comcast and Verizon from giving priority to some Internet traffic over others, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce said that such a move would slow innovation and job creation, and that it was 'strongly opposed.'" ...

... CW: At some point, just crying "jobs" every time you want to privilege the wealthy is not going to snooker even the "stupid" American voter (see Gruber, Jonathan).

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

David Edwards of Raw Story: Fox "News" hosts can't understand John Fogarty lyrics; bash Springsteen, Creedence Clearwater. Springsteen, Dave Grohl & Zack Brown's performance at Tuesday's Concert for Valor is here. ...

... Charles Pierce has a nice pictorial explanation of "Fortunate Son," which the Fox people should probably look at since they can't understand words.

Dylan Byers of Politico: "Fox News is reevaluating Mike Huckabee's status with the network following a new report that he is eyeing a 2016 presidential bid." See also the WashPo report under "Presidential Election" below. ...

... ** Steve M. notes how awkward a Huckabee run would be for the press's preordained "narrative." Steve cites a few of Huck's lunatic remarks, then contrasts them with the WashPo's characterization of Huckabee in the piece linked below:

An ordained Southern Baptist preacher with an easy-going demeanor, Huckabee presents himself as both a social conservative and an economic populist.... [2008 campaign manager Chip] Saltsman ..., said Huckabee would be a formidable opponent for the Democratic front-runner, Hillary Rodham Clinton, in part because he has studied her since their shared Arkansas days. He said Huckabee's 'common touch' and his ability to talk about income inequality would contrast with Clinton.

     ... Not exactly, "Crazy Old Bigot & Nullification/Impeachment Kook Makes Another Quixotic White House Run." ...

... Ed Kilgore: "As for 'income inequality....' I'd be interested in hearing what if anything Huck has to say. He's sure not in favor of more progressive taxation; he's a big 'Fair Tax' guy, devoted to flattening tax rates and moving towards a consumption-based system that would inherently be more regressive. But more to the point, how media folk treat Huck may determine whether the 'economic inequality' debate in 2016 is real or entirely symbolic."

Presidential Election

Contributer P. D. Pepe flags this piece by Noam Scheiber of the New Republic. It is indeed a good summary of the Democrats' Dilemma, as also outlined in some of the posts linked under today's "November Elections": "Long story short, there's a coalition available to Democrats that knits together working class minorities and college-educated voters and slices heavily into the GOP's margins among the white working class.... It's ... possible that Hillary's extensive ties to the one percent will strangle the populist project before it ever gets going, in which case some of those unnamed lefty challengers the Times wrote off start to look pretty attractive. However you feel about it, though, it's the question for Democrats to consider once they realize they need a lasting majority, not just control of the White House."

Tom Hamburger & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee, who turned his stunning victory in the 2008 Iowa caucuses into a thriving talk-show career, is reconnecting with activists and enlisting staff to position himself in a growing field of potential Republican presidential candidates. This week, Huckabee is leading more than 100 pastors and GOP insiders from early primary states on a 10-day overseas trip with stops in Poland and England." ...

... CW: Anyways, I want Huck to tap Santorum as his running mate & I want the National Enquirer to catch the two of them in bed together in a motel room in Laconia, New Hampshire. Photos, please. Such are the dreams of the everyday liberal. ...

... Paul Waldman also is enthusiastic about a Huckabee run. No mention of Laconia.

Sam Youngman of the Lexington Herald-Leader, in a Politico Magazine piece, looks at the failed but and enthusiastic efforts -- to curb Rand Paul's political career.

November Elections

Ed Kilgore takes a look at Iowa's exit polls & sees a serious problem for Democrats, one we discussed here yesterday: "non-southern non-college-educated whites" are voting Republican in higher numbers. ...

... ** New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio in the Huffington Post: "This year, too many Democratic candidates lost sight of [the party's] core principles -- opting instead to clip their progressive wings in deference to a conventional wisdom that says bold ideas aren't politically practical. To working people, it showed Democratic weakness -- a weak commitment to the change desperately sought by struggling families, and a weak alternative to a Republican philosophy that has held America back. Bold, progressive ideas win elections. Just ask Senator Al Franken, who has fought fearlessly to rein in Wall Street, and won by a larger margin on Tuesday than President Obama did in Minnesota in 2012." ...

... Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senior members of the Democratic Party say congressional leaders need to look in the mirror after a disastrous Election Day. Several former chairmen of the Democratic National Committee (DNC) say the party waged a tepid fight this year and hasn't had enough of an internal deliberation about what went wrong."

Jay Root of the Texas Tribune: "Consultants for Democrat Wendy Davis warned her campaign months ago that the Fort Worth senator was headed for a humiliating defeat in the Texas governor's race unless she adopted a more centrist message and put a stop to staggering internal dysfunction. The warnings are contained in two internal communications obtained by The Texas Tribune and written at the beginning of the year...."

Beyond the Beltway

Donna St. George of the Washington Post: "Christmas and Easter have been stricken from next year's school calendar in Montgomery County. So have Yom Kippur and Rosh Hashanah. Montgomery's Board of Education voted 7 to 1 Tuesday to eliminate references to all religious holidays on the published calendar for 2015-2016, a decision that followed a request from Muslim community leaders to give equal billing to the Muslim holy day of Eid al-Adha. In practical terms, Montgomery schools will still be closed for the Christian and Jewish holidays, as in previous years, and students will still get the same days off, as planned."

     ... CW: If Bill O'Reilly doesn't run a segment titled something like, "Maryland Muslims Win War on Christmas," I'll eat a loofah for lunch.

Elicia Dover of KATV Little Rock: "Gov. Mike Beebe [D] says he will pardon his son, Kyle, for a felony crime from his past.... Kyle Beebe, now 34, was charged in 2003 with possession of a controlled substance, marijuana, with intent to deliver, a class C felony. He was given 3 years supervised probation and fines. Gov. Beebe was serving as the state's attorney general at the time. At the time of the arrest, Gov. Beebe was quoted in a local newspaper saying, 'If he broke the law, he needs to pay for it. He needs to be treated like everybody else-no better, worse.'"

News Lede

New York Times: "President Obama will ignore angry protests from Republicans and announce as soon as next week a broad overhaul of the nation's immigration enforcement system that will protect up to five million undocumented immigrants from the threat of deportation and provide many of them with work permits, according to administration officials who have direct knowledge of the plan."

The Commentariat -- Nov. 12, 2014

Internal links, political maps removed.

Mark Landler of the AP: "China and the United States made common cause on Wednesday against the threat of climate change, staking out an ambitious joint plan to curb carbon emissions as a way to spur nations around the world to make their own cuts in greenhouse gases. The landmark agreement, jointly announced here by President Obama and President Xi Jinping, includes new targets for carbon emissions reductions by the United States and a first-ever commitment by China to stop its emissions from growing by 2030." The Washington Post story, by David Nakamura & Steven Mufson, is here. ...

... In a New York Times op-ed, Secretary of State John Kerry discusses the agreement. ...

     ... CW: Somebody should write an opera about this; instead, I suppose there will be claims that Obama's co-operation with Xi, against a fake environmental threat, proves he is a Communist. Climate denier Jim Inhofe, incoming chair of the Senate environment committee, should be able to get a couple of years' worth of "investigations" out of it. ...

... Let's see if Mitch McConnell is impressed with this remarkable breakthrough. Timothy Cama of the Hill: "Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) wasted little time Tuesday night in blasting President Obama's climate agreement with China as another costly, unpopular environmental move. 'Our economy can't take the president's ideological war on coal that will increase the squeeze on middle-class families and struggling miners,' McConnell said in a statement minutes after the White House announced the bilateral deal." ...

... James West of Mother Jones: "The shock announcement of an ambitious and wide-ranging climate deal between the United States and China is leaving one vociferous group of politicians red-faced: those that have always used China as an excuse for delaying climate action. Here's West's mashup of Republican excuse-making:

     ... CW: Don't worry, people. As noted above, Mitch McConnell already has a new line of attack: jobs! ...

... Besides, Science Is Just a Bunch of Wobbly Theories. Steve Benen: "For supporters of modern science, the prevailing political winds have to be discouraging. For example, congressional Republicans not only reject climate science en masse, but each of the incoming GOP senators are climate deniers." ...

... Here's the Michael Hilzig column, which Benen cites. Hilzig asks, in conclusion, "Do you want your scientific research conducted and supervised by scientists, or by ideologues for whom the search for truth is the least desirable thing on Earth?"

... Mark Landler: "President Obama and President Xi Jinping promoted the virtues of cooperation between China and the United States on Wednesday, drawing an unusually productive state visit to a close with a news conference that nevertheless laid bare stubborn differences over issues like the Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations and press freedom."

Reuters: "Burma's transition from military rule has not been as fast as hoped and the government is 'backsliding' on some reforms, Barack Obama said in an interview published on Wednesday, hours before he was due to visit the country.... 'Even as there has been some progress on the political and economic fronts, in other areas there has been a slowdown and backsliding in reforms,' Obama told the Irrawaddy, a website and magazine that was published in neighbouring Thailand while the generals ran Burma."

Stephen Collinson of CNN: "Republicans poised to take control of Congress are already threatening to kill what could turn out to be President Barack Obama's most significant second-term achievement: a nuclear deal with Iran. U.S. and Iranian negotiators are quickly approaching a Nov. 24 deadline to reach an agreement that would freeze Iran's nuclear program in return for lifting international sanctions on the Islamic Republic." Via Greg Sargent. CW: Anything that smacks of a "peaceful solution" or "diplomacy" is anathema to the Party of War. ...

... Michael Crowley & Burgess Everett of Politico have more on the Republican (with the help of many Senate Democrats) efforts to undermine a nuclear deal with Iran. ...

... Gee, I wonder how Hillary Clinton will come down on a pact with Iran. Oh, heres a clue. Over to you, Bernie.

Katrina vanden Heuvel in the Washington Post: "... Republicans have no mandate because they offered no agenda. Republicans reaped the rewards of McConnell's scorched-earth strategy, obstructing President Obama relentlessly, helping to create the failure that voters would pin on the party in power. But the collateral damage is that the 'party of "no"' has no agreement on what is yes.... McConnell leads into a power a party truly unfit and unready to govern." ...

... Ron Fournier of the National Journal: "Two-thirds of voters in last week's elections are dissatisfied or angry with Republican Party leaders in Congress, according to exit polls, and nearly six in 10 disapprove of the GOP altogether. While it's undeniable which party won the most campaigns this year, the Republican Party didn't win the overall election -- not with numbers like that. The winners were disgust, apathy, and a gnawing desire for a better choice -- an alternative to what the two major parties are currently offering." CW: For once, Fournier gets something right. Tune in next year; it could happen again. ...

... Manu Raju & Burgess Everett of Politico: "Republicans are about to take over the Senate, but another group is on the rise, too: red-state Democrats. Red staters and other moderates could determine whether Mitch McConnell or Harry Reid prevails on any given cliff-hanger vote, making these Democrats the new power centers in the Senate." ...

... Charles Pierce takes exception of Raju & Everett's report. Something about guzzling Prestone. ...

... Sahil Kapur of TPM: "... Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) ... [will] need six Democrats to break filibusters and achieve the magic 60-vote threshold required to pass controversial legislation through the Senate, such as hacking away at Obamacare or approving the Keystone pipeline." Kapur names Claire McCaskill (Mo.), Joe Manchin (W.Va.), Heidi Heitkamp (N.D.), Joe Donnelly (Ind.), Angus King (I-Maine), & Jon Tester (Mont.). ...

... Republican Voters Overwhelmingly Favor Gridlock. Pew Research Center: "Within the Republican Party, only about a third of Republicans and Republican leaners (32%) want to see the GOP leadership work with Obama if it disappoints some groups of Republican supporters. About twice as many (66%) say GOP leaders should stand up to Obama even if less gets done."

Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Nearly half of Americans will now live in states under total GOP control.... The GOP ... will now control more than two-thirds of state legislative chambers across the country -- as in nearly seven in 10. And given Republicans also won at least 31 governorships, they are basically in control of the state government in 24 states. That could soon hit 25 if they win the still-undetermined governor's race in Alaska." ...

... Paul Waldman: "If Democrats now evaluating the meaning of their loss don’t take a very hard look at their state legislative problem, they'll be ignoring one key factor that could keep them in the minority in the House -- and frustrate the prospects for attaining Democratic governing majorities -- for a long time." ...

... David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "As the 2016 presidential campaign begins to stir, the central question will be how both parties respond to the great wage slowdown. Neither has offered a persuasive answer so far -- let alone a solution -- which is why the public mood is so sour and American politics has been so tumultuous lately.... The challenge for the next election will be coming up with a version of the minimum-wage increase that applies to the middle class as well." ...

... CW: Leonhardt's suggestion is a middle-class tax cut & a rich people's tax hike. Unless he's envisioning a dramatic re-ordering of the tax code back to 1959 levels, this is just a band-aid with minimal effects that voters won't even notice. What is really needed is a rehaul of the tax code & other laws that force companies to reduce profits & raise wages for all workers, except top management. The notion that stockholders & CEOs should make millions while workers struggle along on pittances must be legislated out of existence. Yeah, capitalism is awesome. Over to you, Bernie.

Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "President Obama will have to get his nominee for attorney general past a Republican-controlled Senate, Democratic and Republican aides say. A packed schedule after the election is almost certain to push the vetting process for Loretta Lynch into January, when Republicans are set to take power in the upper chamber.... Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has not yet made a decision on whether to move Lynch's nomination in the lame-duck session, according to spokesman Adam Jentleson."

The Oatmeal explains net neutrality to Ted Cruz: 'It's about freedom." Do yourself a favor & read it. With apologies ot Dr. Seuss, next time Ted filibusters ObamaCare or whatever, he can read the Oatmeal to his daughters & show them the pictures. Via Paul Waldman.

Donna Brazile of CNN is sick of the sexist hits on Valerie Jarrett: "Women in Washington -- and in positions of power anywhere -- should be subjected to the same criticisms and held to the same standards as men. That does not include the assumption that any successful woman has attained her position through flattery, feminine wiles or her ability to provide maternal comfort to a more powerful man. We can criticize a person's performance without demeaning her based on gender." ...

... Dana Milbank says Obama suffers from an "administration of affirmation," much as Jimmy Carter did. "Much of the blame for the yes-men culture around Obama has been placed on a woman.... The issue is not Jarrett per se (it's good for a president to have friends nearby) but the lack of others to offset her power."

Brian Beutler: "Here are eight reasons for the ACA's supporters to stop freaking out -- at least for now. 1. The Legal Case Is Extremely Weak.... 2. The Roberts Court Is a Business Friendly Court.... 3. The Ruling Would Be Embarrassingly Hypocritical.... 4. An Adverse Ruling Could Be Self Correcting.... 5. Executive Discretion Is at Stake.... 6. An Adverse Ruling Would Be Immoral.... 7. An Adverse Ruling Would Be Politically Damaging to Republicans.... 8. An Adverse Ruling Would Define Roberts's Legacy, for the Worse." ...

... AND contributor James S. suggests if the Court strikes down ObummerCare, it could have unintended consequences:

... Here Beutler suggests a convoluted, if plausible, way that John Roberts could have his cake & eat it, too. ...

... Steve M. isn't buying much of Beutler's argument: "There's one reason I think the Court might save the law: because it's a motivator for Republican voters going into 2016. But that didn't work in 2012 -- I'm convinced that that's the principal reason Roberts saved it the first time -- so I'm not optimistic now. But we'll see." ...

... Ditto Ed Kilgore: "... color me skeptical. The one thing we know for sure is that there would be an explosion of joy, and quite literally dancing in the streets, in conservative precincts if the news breaks in June that 'the Supreme Court has dealt a fatal blow to Obamacare.'... The idea that Obamacare subsidies are a 'bribe' to encourage people to go along with their enslavement is deeply rooted on the Right. I have a hard time imagining conservatives agreeing to save them." ...

... CW: I suppose the Worst Supreme Court Since the 19th Century will Do the Wrong Thing, although it's always possible that Nino will side with the government to show how pissed-off he is with frivolous lawsuits. Tort reform!

Annals of "Justice," Ctd.

Rick Hasen in Slate: "Did Alabama legislators redraw district lines to hurt Democrats or to disenfranchise black voters?" The Supreme Court will have to decide, & it represents a difference between unlawful racism & Constitutional, politically-motivated gerrymandering.

Erik Loomis of LG&M: "With civil asset forfeiture, the real organized crime in this country these days is not the Mafia, it's the police. Or certain police departments anyway that self-fund by stealing your stuff whether or not you have actually committed a drug crime.... And if you are found not guilty of these crimes, do you get your stuff back? Ha ha ha. Of course not."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Fire Luke Russert. CW: While I was ironing yesterday, I turned on MSNBC for the first time since the election. I guess the show I caught was "The Cycle," which apparently features frat-boy Luke Russert as a regular panelist. If you want to know why MSNBC's ratings are in the tank, Luke Russert. What a cipher. He did not say one thing that a somewhat dimwitted junior-high-school student would not have said. He used the word "incredible" a lot. Other times, he dipped into adverbial territory, employing the word "incredibly." Here he is in a segment that aired Monday, discussing the base-energizing "silver lining" for Democrats that could result from the Supremes' gutting ObamaCare. Incredibly incredible.

AND MIT professor Jonathan Gruber, apparently recovering from his most recent foot-in-mouth flare-up, regrets he called us all stupid. Glad you're feeling better, professor. Health insurance is great isn't, it? ...

     ... Update. Dave Weigel introduces us to the "mild-mannered investment banker" who keeps outing Gruber's gaffes. CW: Personally, I'm not convinced that anybody who listens to Rush is properly characterized as "mild-mannered."

November Elections

Christopher Cadelago of the Sacramento Bee: "Democratic Rep. Ami Bera has pulled to within 530 votes of Republican challenger Doug Ose in the race for suburban Sacramento's 7th Congressional District. Ose, who finished election night with a 3,011-vote advantage over the freshman lawmaker, has seen his lead contract again nearly a week after polls closed Tuesday. The margin stood at about 2,000 votes since the last counting Thursday, when nearly 80,000 ballots were left across the county."

AND they're just getting around to counting votes in Alaska. ...

     ... Update. Becky Bohrer of the AP: "Republican Dan Sullivan won Alaska's U.S. Senate race, defeating first-term incumbent Democrat Mark Begich. Sullivan led Begich by about 8,100 votes on Election Night last week and held a comparable edge after election workers had counted about 20,000 absentee, early-voted and questioned ballots late Tuesday. Thousands more ballots remained to be counted, but the results indicated that Begich could not overcome Sullivan's lead."

Jack Healy of the New York Times: Voters ousted two Republican Colorado state legislators who were prominent gun-rights advocates. "Analysts said the whipsawing results were a lesson in how turnout can vastly change the landscape.... The dynamic seems to have empowered conservatives in the low-turnout recall vote last year, but rewarded Democrats this month in a midterm election in which mail-in ballots and a contested Senate race helped Colorado defy a nationwide pattern of sagging voter participation." Thanks to MAG for the lead.

Presidential Election

Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) has spent months fishing for a strategist to guide his potential 2016 presidential campaign. On Monday, he hooked a big one: Tad Devine, one of the Democratic Party's leading consultants and a former high-level campaign aide to Al Gore, John Kerry, and Michael Dukakis. 'If he runs, I'm going to help him,' Devine said in an interview." ...

... Paul Waldman: "That could mean a genuinely interesting debate about the problems America confronts and how the Democratic party should address them. Sanders says he'll center his campaign on economic inequality and the struggles of the middle class, and this is what Clinton needs to address as well.... Of course, he&'d say he isn't running to do Hillary Clinton any favors. But the reality is that he would. By critiquing her from the left, he could pull her in his direction in order to satisfy primary voters, which on many issues would wind up being to her advantage."

Maggie Haberman & Glenn Thrush, in Politico Magazine, assess Hillary Clinton's presidential prospects. Among other matters, they run down Clinton's missteps in 2008: "It all coalesced into a single devastating paragraph Obama delivered with brutal force at the Jefferson-Jackson Dinner in Des Moines, Iowa, in November 2007. Hillary Clinton, he told the party activists that night, was too cautious, too calculating, too caught up in the politics of the past. Even today, two full campaign cycles later, that broadside is a kind of Rosetta Stone for anyone crafting an anti-Clinton message":

Beyond the Beltway

Congratulations, Kansas, for Re-electing Sam & His Band. Brad Cooper of the Kansas City Star: "Kansas will collect $1 billion less in revenue in 2015 and 2016 than its projected expenses following massive income tax cuts signed into law by Republican Gov. Sam Brownback."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Bethany Allen-Ebrahimian of Foreign Policy: Vladimir Putin gives his coat to China's first lady Peng Liyuan; Chinese censors take down videos of Putin placing his coat around Peng's shoulders. Too "friendly," apparently.

News Ledes

New York Times: "Tanks and other military vehicles pouring over the border from Russia into eastern Ukraine. Nightly artillery battles in the region's biggest city, Donetsk, and reports of fighting around another regional capital. And now, sightings of the 'green men,' professional soldiers in green uniforms without insignia, the same type of forces that carried out the invasion of Crimea last spring."

Los Angeles Times: "U.S., British and Swiss regulators on Wednesday fined JPMorgan Chase & Co., Citigroup and three other global banks a total of about $3.3 billion to settle investigations into attempted manipulation of foreign exchange rates. The fines, including the largest ever issued by Britain's Financial Conduct Authority, are the latest multibillion-dollar hit to the industry in the wake of alleged misconduct in the 2008 financial crisis and attempts to rig major international markets." ...

     ... The Guardian story is here.

The Commentariat -- Nov. 11, 2014

Internal links, map, photos & related text removed.

Mark Landler of the New York Times: "The Obama administration said Tuesday that it had achieved a breakthrough in negotiations with China to eliminate tariffs on an array of information technology products, from video-game consoles and computer software to medical equipment and semiconductors. The understanding, reached during a visit to China by President Obama, opens the door to expanding a World Trade Organization treaty on these products, assuming other countries can be persuaded to accept the same terms. American officials predicted a broader deal would be reached swiftly now that it had resolved longstanding hurdles with China." ...

     ... Update. New Lede: "China and the United States vividly displayed on Tuesday why they are both rivals and partners atop the global economy, announcing an agreement to reduce tariffs for technology products even as they promoted competing free-trade blocs for the Asian region."

<>Michael Shear & Edward Wyatt of the New York Times: "President Obama on Monday put the full weight of his administration behind an open and free Internet, calling for a strict policy of so-called net neutrality and formally opposing deals in which content providers like Netflix would pay huge sums to broadband companies for faster access to their customers. The president's proposal is consistent with his longstanding support for rules that seek to prevent cable and telephone companies from providing special access to some content providers. But the statement posted online Monday, as Mr. Obama traveled to Asia, is the most direct effort by the president to influence the debate about the Internet's future."

Net Neutrality' is Obamacare for the Internet; the Internet should not operate at the speed of government. -- Sen. Ted Cruz, on Twitter

... Eric Dolan of Raw Story: "Cruz has previously said the FCC should be completely stripped of its authority to enforce net neutrality regulations. The power to regulate the Internet should be in the hands of Congress, he claimed." CW: Because Ted Cruz should be in charge of everything. ...

... Steve M.: "Average citizens who get it will cheer the president; those who have a monetary interest in unleveling the playing field will be upset, and will push back hard against what Obama's trying to do. The GOP is on the side of the latter group, obviously, because Capitalists Can Do No Wrong. Beyond that, however, the GOP is working hard to make its millions of uncritical, unthinking followers into haters of net neutrality. If Obama's for it, they should be against it. If Obama's for it, it must be evil." ...

... Ed Kilgore: "The more Republicans extend their philosophy of absolute private property and unregulated markets into areas that affect aspects of daily life, the more they may ultimately undermine their own message that government is always the problem and big avaricious companies can do no wrong. This was a good move for Obama." ...

... See also safari's question in today's Comments. If only we had a better press, some of them would ask Cruz exactly how his Net Big Business policy helps all the mom & pops who "built this."&

GOP Vows to Destroy Environment. Coral Davenport of the New York Times: "The new Republican Congress is headed for a clash with the White House over two ambitious Environmental Protection Agency regulations that are the heart of President Obama's climate change agenda. Senator Mitch McConnell, the next majority leader, has already vowed to fight the rules, which could curb planet-warming carbon pollution but ultimately shut down coal-fired power plants in his native Kentucky. Mr. McConnell and other Republicans are, in the meantime, stepping up their demands that the president approve construction of the Keystone XL pipeline to carry petroleum from Canadian oil sands to refineries on the Gulf Coast."

Newsflash: The number of Ebola patients in the U.S. is now officially zero. I'm sure the Republicans are all over it. Thanks, Obama! (And all the best to the brave and altruistic N.Y. doctor. May he bowl 300. ) -- Victoria D., in yesterday's Comments

David Tedrow, in a Washington Post op-ed: "The Obamacare subsidies saved my life. Now, I'm scared the Supreme Court is going to gut them." CW: Good for the Post for publishing Tedrow's story. Now let's see if the Washington Examiner will publish similar accounts. Justice Scalia has said he only reads the Right Wing News; he's probably not the only Supreme who can't handle the real news. ...

... DeNial is a River that Runs through Right Wing World. Jonathan Chait: "Last night I linked to [Tedrow's] story on Twitter, writing, 'The Republican Party is trying to kill this man.'... My tweet set off a backlash.... The fascinating thing about the response was its uniform, fervent denial of the possibility that crippling or repealing Obamacare would have the effect Tedrow describes.... The Republican health-care strategy is to flip a switch whose immediate effect will be to impoverish and kill a lot of people. Is there a single conservative who will admit this?" ...

(... If you're knocking about looking for something to read on a day off, this piece on denialism, and what to do about it, by Massimo Pigliucci, is a nice read. Via Driftglass.) ...

... Paul Waldman is a teensy bit pessimistic about the outcome of the case. And he thinks Republican governors will let ObamaCare (and people!) die if the Court rules for the plaintiffs: "... will they be punished? Don't bet on it.This is a country where people shake their fists at their members of Congress and say, 'Tell the government to keep its hands off my Medicare!', where people like their state Obamacare exchange but hate Obamacare, where people approve of almost everything this law does but disapprove of the law itself. You think the public as a whole is going to understand this lawsuit and know who to blame? Don't bet on it. They'll only know that now they can't get insurance anymore. 'Obamacare took away my subsidy!' they'll cry. And Republicans will laugh and laugh." ...

... CW: Yo, Mitch. Let's see some of that bipartisan-y thing you've been talking about since the election. Tell us you & Boehner are going to introduce a bill removing those four little words "established by the state" from the clause in question, thus averting the need for your Supreme friends to sully themselves & saving your Kynect constituents from losing their "Website." And, yes, I do believe pigs fly. ...

... Dana Milbank: "So it turns out there is an Obamacare death panel after all. It has nine members and it operates out of a marble building directly across the street from the Capitol.... The very act of taking up the challenge to the law will itself undermine the law. The justices announced their decision just a week before the open-enrollment period for 2015 begins -- and the looming possibility that the high court will strike down the law will probably deter those who are considering signing up for its coverage." ...

... Elise Viebeck of the Hill: "Officials at the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) on Monday projected that up to 9.9 million people would be enrolled in ObamaCare in 2015, millions fewer than Congressional Budget Office (CBO) estimates." ...

... AND ObamaCare architect Jonathan Gruber's foot-in-mouth disease flared up again.

King Barack. Rand Paul, in the Daily Beast: The "war" against ISIS "is now illegal. It must be declared and made valid, or it must be ended.... This is, of course, not the only way in which this president is acting like a king. Conservatives have rightly decried President Obama's unconstitutional executive action on Obamacare -- and his promises to do the same with immigration. With both branches of Congress now under Republican control, we should act to halt those power grabs, too.... Conservatives who blast the president for ignoring the separation of powers on immigration display a fatal inconsistency by embracing unlimited war-making powers.... If ever there was too much bipartisanship, it would be the bipartisan acceptance of unlimited presidential war-making power." ...

... Ahiza Garcia of TPM: "Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) said on Monday that impeaching President Obama 'would be a consideration' if he moves forward unilaterally on immigration." ...

... Peter Beinart of the Atlantic: "Waiting for Republicans to Act on Immigration Is Pointless.... Ever since Obama became president, Republicans have been opposing his agenda militantly while periodically warning that if he pushes forward with it they'll stop being so cooperative.... Boehner's claim that Republicans are just dying to pass immigration reform, if only Obama abstains from executive action, not only contradicts his past behavior. It contradicts his past statements."

Lee Fang of the Nation: "President Barack Obama can issue an executive order today that requires government contractors to disclose their dark-money campaign contributions. Why doesn't he? And why don't campaign-finance-reform organizations push for such a fix?... After initially floating the possibility of issuing the executive order, the administration backed down."

Jonathan Capehart of the Washington Post on the spate of Valerie Jarrett-bashing.

Annals of "Justice," Ctd.

What a Police State Looks Like. Shaila Dewan of the New York Times: "The practice of civil forfeiture has come under fire in recent months, amid a spate of negative press reports and growing outrage among civil rights advocates, libertarians and members of Congress who have raised serious questions about the fairness of the practice, which critics say runs roughshod over due process rights.... Despite that opposition, many cities and states are moving to expand civil seizures of cars and other assets.... Much of the nuts-and-bolts how-to of civil forfeiture is passed on in continuing education seminars for local prosecutors and law enforcement officials.... The Institute for Justice, which brought the videos [of some seminars] to the attention of The Times, says they show how cynical the practice has become and how profit motives can outweigh public safety." Read the whole report. This could happen to you. ...

... Robert O'Harrow of the Washington Post: After their lawyer obtained a video of a search-&-seizure stop in Iowa that showed the driver did not commit the violation for which they were stopped, "William Barton Davis, 51, and John Newmerzhycky, 43, both from Humboldt County, Calif., claim their constitutional rights against unreasonable searches and seizures were violated. They also contend the stop was part of a pattern connected to the teachings of a private police-training firm that promotes aggressive tactics." They have filed "an unusual federal civil rights lawsuit.... An earlier [Des Moines] Register analysis last year found that 86 percent of warnings and citations issued by Iowa's aggressive interdiction units between 2008 to 2012 were given to out-of-state drivers."

Via Addicting Information.The USA, Where Voting Is a Luxury. Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post: "Voter suppression efforts may have changed the outcomes of some of the closest races last week. And if the Supreme Court lets these laws stand, they will continue to distort election results going forward.... Poll-tax equivalents are newly thriving, through restrictive voter registration and ID requirements, shorter poll hours and various other restrictions and red tape that cost Americans time and money if they wish to cast a ballot." ...

... CW BTW: some of the veterans we're "honoring" today for "preserving our freedoms" are certainly among the disenfranchised. Get the hell out of this polling place & thank you for your service.

Paul Farhi of the Washington Post: "Rush Limbaugh ... is threatening to sue the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee for a series of fundraising e-mails that suggested Limbaugh was condoning campus rape in comments he made on his widely syndicated program on Sept. 15."

Caroline Bankoff of New York: "The Associated Press remains (rightfully) pissed over last week's disclosure that, in 2007, an FBI agent pretended to be an AP reporter in order to catch a 15-year-old who had threatened to bomb his high school.... FBI director James Comey brushed off complaints about the incident..., but the AP wants a promise that this kind of thing will never happen again. In a letter addressed to Comey and Attorney General Eric Holder, AP President and CEO Gary Pruitt demanded to know who signed off on the impersonation, as well as whether the FBI has carried out similar operations since."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

Josh Marshall of TPM: "... on Saturday Breitbart published an exclusive pointing out that President Obama's Attorney General nominee Loretta Lynch was part of the team that defended President Clinton during the Whitewater investigation - not a bad little scooplet. Only it wasn't the same Loretta Lynch, which kind of takes the punch out of the story." Marshall calls their "correction" one for the ages. CW: Better correction:

... Timothy Johnson of Media Matters: "Later on November 9, Breitbart.com removed the article...." ...

... CW: Breitbart's two Greatest Hits were against Shirley Sherrod & Loretta Lynch. What does that tell you?

Charles Pierce runs down the Sunday shows to spare those of us who can't watch. Here's a teeny excerpt: George W. Bush, in a CBS "News" interview: "And no, no, I think you have to earn your way into politics. I don't think anything is ever given to you.' Pierce: "... it's ... not often that one sees the awesome majesty of a complete lack of self-awareness in a single human being.... Coming from a guy who depended on Daddy's money to bail him out of an incredible string of failed businesses and several messy scrapes with the law, on Daddy's influence to keep him out of both Vietnam and (very likely) Alabama during wartime, and on Daddy's lawyers to hand him the presidency? Jim Baker? Shoot, fellers, never heard of him. My god, he's getting worse."

Our Bad Media: "... this past Friday ... Capital New York reported that Arianna Huffington, editor-in-chief of the Huffington Post, had taken disciplinary action against her own journalists for covering our work on Fareed Zakaria's plagiarism. The official reason given ... was that the writer didn't reach out to Zakaria for comment. That's pretty convenient for Zakaria, who has refused to comment on the story to even his own network. Sources within HuffPo itself, however, say that 'punitive actions were only taken after Huffington received complaints from ... Zakaria'..... And so it stands that as of now, the only people to be punished for Fareed Zakaria's plagiarism are journalists who made the mistake of reporting on it...." The writer notes that Huffington frequently appears on Zakaria's CNN show "GPS." ...

... Paul Farhi of the Washington Post: "The Washington Post's editorial page has found 'problematic' sourcing in five columns written by Fareed Zakaria and will likely note the lack of attribution in archived editions of the articles, the section's editor said. Fred Hiatt, The Post's editorial page editor, said he would act after the anonymously written blog Our Bad Media on Monday posted, side by side, excerpts from six Zakaria's columns and work published earlier by other writers. Zakaria used language that was identical, or strikingly similar, to what others had written." ...

... Margaret Hartmann of New York: "On Friday Newsweek removed the editor's note from all of Zakaria's work and put specific corrections on seven articles. The magazine also published an interview with the bloggers behind Our Bad Media...."

Lindsey Bever of the Washington Post: Glenn Beck reveals "he's been hiding a mysterious brain illness." No jokes, please. I know they write themselves, but it's possible Beck is actually ill.

God News, Tuesday Edition. Laurie Goodstein of the New York Times: "Mormon leaders have acknowledged for the first time that the church's founder and prophet, Joseph Smith, portrayed in church materials as a loyal partner to his loving spouse Emma, took as many as 40 wives, some already married and one only 14 years old. The church's disclosures, in a series of essays online, are part of an effort to be transparent about its history at a time when church members are increasingly encountering disturbing claims about the faith on the Internet."

November Elections

Alex DeMarban of the Alaska Dispatch News: "At least 53,000 ballots remain to be counted that could affect margins and possibly outcomes in two closely watched political races in Alaska. The competition in Alaska for Democratic Sen. Mark Begich's U.S. Senate seat has drawn national attention, with Republican candidate Dan Sullivan holding a 8,149-vote lead over Begich -- a 3.6 percent difference -- after the first round of vote counting immediately following Tuesday's general election. The governor's race is also tight, with independent Bill Walker leading Republican Gov. Sean Parnell by 3,165 votes, or just 1.4 percent."

Presidential Race

Ruby Cramer of BuzzFeed: "Sen. Rand Paul's latest knock on Hillary Clinton -- his potential rival in the next presidential race -- came in a Politico article, published on Monday, in which he appeared to take a shot at her age and health. Clinton just turned 67. In the interview, Paul questioned whether Clinton would be able to physically handle running for president. 'It's a very taxing undertaking to go through,' he said. 'It's a rigorous physical ordeal, I think, to be able to campaign for the presidency.' Paul, the junior senator from Kentucky, is 51 years old. If Clinton were elected president in 2016, she would be 69 on inauguration day -- the same age as Ronald Reagan when he took office in 1981. The chair of the Republican National Committee, Reince Priebus, has said he considers Clinton's age and health 'fair game' in a possible presidential race."

Charles Pierce doesn't understand why we don't hear Al "Franken's name bandied more about as a Democratic presidential possibility in 2016."

Rick Perry Goes to College. Timothy Connor of the Dartmouth: "Arriving to the tune of 'Deep in the Heart of Texas,' Gov. Rick Perry, R-Texas, spoke under the Texas flag about U.S. border security, energy initiatives and foreign policy to an audience of more than 100 people ... Sunday night. Several students raised explicit questions concerning Perry's stance on homosexuality during the event."

Beyond the Beltway

Jason Kravarik & Sara Sidner of CNN: "Gun sales spike as Ferguson area braces for grand jury decision." With video.

News Ledes

New York Times: "Russia agreed on Tuesday to build two new nuclear power reactors in Iran, with a possibility of six more after that, in a deal that greatly expands nuclear cooperation between the two countries.The agreement shows that Russia is pressing ahead with its own vision for ensuring that Iran does not build nuclear weapons, by supplying civilian power technology that will operate under international monitoring."

** New York Times: "John Doar, who was a leader in the federal government's legal efforts to dismantle segregation in the South during the most volatile period of the civil rights movement in the 1960s, and who returned to government service to lead the team that made the constitutional case for the possible impeachment of President Richard M. Nixon, died on Tuesday at his home in Manhattan. He was 92."

Washington Post: "The captain of the doomed South Korean ferry that capsized in April, claiming more than 300 lives, was sentenced Tuesday to 36 years in prison for willful negligence and dereliction of duty."