The Commentariat -- March 24, 2014
** Paul Krugman: "The drift toward oligarchy continues," thanks in large part to Republican policies. ...
... CW: I wonder where the conservatives are who hate this. After all, those so-called intellectuals & scribes who work at think tanks & winger rags are mostly ordinary working people. Yes, they know who's buttering their bread, but at some point, aren't they too going to revolt against policies that are directly hurting them? They can't all be so stupid or so shortsighted as to think advocating for Koch-friendly policies will be to their ultimate benefit. Where is the outrage on the right?
CW: Here's what I wrote on March 19 (or maybe 18): Ben Casselman of Nate Silver's new FiveThirtyEight venture susses out whether or not more Americans are trying to sustain themselves in minimum- & low-wage jobs. If Casselman's analysis -- which makes at least one ridiculous assumption & expresses complete ignorance of factors contributing to low wages ("Economists aren't sure"), then I am singularly unimpressed with Silver's product. ...
... Here's Krugman yesterday: "Timothy Egan joins the chorus of those dismayed by Nate Silver's new FiveThirtyEight. I'm sorry, but I have to agree: so far it looks like something between a disappointment and a disaster.... Unfortunately, Silver seems to have taken the wrong lesson from his election-forecasting success. In that case, he pitted his statistical approach against campaign-narrative pundits, who turned out to know approximately nothing. What he seems to have concluded is that there are no experts anywhere, that a smart data analyst can and should ignore all that. But not all fields are like that -- in fact, even political analysis isn't like that, if you talk to political scientists instead of political reporters. So, for example, before glancing at some correlation and asserting causation, you really should talk to the researchers." ...
... CW: It seems that Silver, like that other wunderkind Ezra Klein (and perhaps Glenn Greenwald, too), has bitten off more than he can chew. However, I wouldn't worry too much if their teenaged-style rebellions against their buttinsky MSM editors are failures. These are smart guys. A big flop can be a big learning experience -- if the flopper is indeed smart enough to heed the lesson.
Walter Dellinger, in a Washington Post op-ed, argues that access to contraception is a "test of equality." He recounts some of the arguments in Griswold v. Connecticut. ...
... Brian Beutler: The Hobby Lobby "case will test what's more sacred to this court: Corporate imperatives or so-called religious liberties."
Carrie Brown & Tal Kopan of Politico: "President Barack Obama said on Monday that Europe and the U.S. are 'united' on Ukraine, kicking off a series of talks with foreign leaders this week aimed at exerting pressure on Russia. Obama spoke briefly to the press with Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte at the Rijksmuseum in Amsterdam after landing Monday morning. Obama later met with President Xi Jinping of China at the U.S. ambassador's residence here." ...
... Kathleen Hennessey of the Los Angeles Times: "The fight over control and influence in Ukraine should not be seen as a Cold War-era battle, President Obama said in an interview released Monday as he opened a European trip certain to be dominated by discussion of the West's response to Russia's annexation of the Crimean peninsula." ...
... Reuters: "Barack Obama arrives on Monday morning in the Netherlands, where he will try to gauge how far European allies are willing to go to stop Moscow from moving deeper into Ukraine after annexing Crimea. The US president is visiting Europe for talks with fellow leaders of the Group of Seven industrial democracies, when he will try to persuade them to increase pressure on Russia."
Carol Morello & Karen DeYoung of the Washington Post: "U.S. and Ukrainian officials warned Sunday that Russia may be poised to expand its territorial conquest into eastern Ukraine and beyond, with a senior NATO official saying that Moscow might even order its troops to cross Ukraine to reach Moldova."
Stephanie Simon of Politico: "Taxpayers in 14 states will bankroll nearly $1 billion this year in tuition for private schools, including hundreds of religious schools that teach Earth is less than 10,000 years old, Adam and Eve strolled the garden with dinosaurs, and much of modern biology, geology and cosmology is a web of lies. Now a major push to expand these voucher programs is under way from Alaska to New York, a development that seems certain to sharply increase the investment." ...
... Katie Halper of AlterNet, in Salon, on how school vouchers provide taxpayer-funded teaching of goofy conservative/religious ideas. One example: the Great Depression was a hoax.
Evie Salomon of CBS "News": "This past week marked the 46th anniversary of the My Lai massacre, in which 504 unarmed Vietnamese civilians were massacred by U.S. troops in 1968. It's one of the most shameful chapters in American military history, and now documents held at the Nixon Presidential Library paint a disturbing picture of what happened inside the Nixon administration after news of the massacre was leaked. The documents, mostly hand-written notes from Nixon's meetings with his chief of staff H.R. 'Bob' Haldeman, lead some historians to conclude that President Richard Nixon was behind the attempt to sabotage the My Lai court-martial trials and cover up what was becoming a public-relations disaster for his administration."
Senate Races
Nate Silver: "We think the Republicans are now slight favorites to win at least six [Senate] seats and capture the chamber. The Democrats' position has deteriorated somewhat since last summer, with President Obama's approval ratings down to 42 or 43 percent from an average of about 45 percent before. Furthermore, as compared with 2010 or 2012, the GOP has done a better job of recruiting credible candidates, with some exceptions." ...
... Alex Roarty of the National Journal: "In an unusual step, the executive director of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee on Monday issued a rebuttal the famed statistician's prediction -- made a day earlier -- that Republicans were a 'slight favorite' to retake the Senate. Silver was wrong in 2012, the political committee's Guy Cecil wrote in a memo, and he'll be wrong again in 2014. 'In fact, in August of 2012 Silver forecast a 61 percent likelihood that Republicans would pick up enough seats to claim the majority,' Cecil said. "Three months later, Democrats went on to win 55 seats."
Beyond the Beltway
Christie's Lawyers Clear Christie. Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: "With his office suddenly engulfed in scandal over lane closings at the George Washington Bridge, Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey two months ago summoned a pair of top defense lawyers from an elite law firm to the State House and asked them to undertake an extensive review of what had gone wrong. Now, after 70 interviews and at least $1 million in legal fees to be paid by state taxpayers, that review is set to be released, and according to people with firsthand knowledge of the inquiry, it has uncovered no evidence that the governor was involved in the plotting or directing of the lane closings." CW: See? I knew Christie was totally innocent & now that's an indisputable fact. Hope New Jersey taxpayers are satisfied. "The investigation's most significant obstacle was the lack of access to the three figures at the center of the lane closings -- [Bridget] Kelly, the author of the infamous 'time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee' email; Bill Stepien, the governor's former aide and campaign manager; and David Wildstein, a Christie ally at the Port Authority — who all declined to be interviewed." CW: Eh. Details, details.
News Ledes
Seattle Times: "Fourteen people are confirmed dead from the massive mudslide in Snohomish County, after searchers found six more bodies this afternoon."
New York Times: "A federal jury on Monday found five associates of the convicted swindler Bernard L. Madoff guilty on 31 counts of aiding one of the largest Ponzi schemes in history. The case centered around whether or not the employees had committed securities fraud and other deceptive acts to knowingly mislead auditors and investors in Madoff Securities. The trial in the United States District Court in Manhattan went on for more than five months...."
Chicago Tribune: "More than 30 people were injured this morning when a CTA Blue Line train ran into a platform at O'Hare International Airport and came to rest on an escalator, an accident that could close the station for up to 24 hours...."
New York Times: "Russia and Russian state companies have increased the economic pressure on the new pro-Western government in Kiev over the past week, closing the border to most trucks, shutting a Ukrainian factory in Russia and yet again raising the price of natural gas." ...
... AP: "A Ukrainian air force commander is being held after his base in Crimea was stormed by pro-Russian forces, and the acting president called for his release Sunday."
New York Times: "Japan will announce Monday that it will turn over to Washington more than 700 pounds of weapons-grade plutonium and a large quantity of highly enriched uranium, a decades-old research stockpile that is large enough to build dozens of nuclear weapons, according to American and Japanese officials."
AP: "A court in Egypt on Monday sentenced to death 529 supporters of ousted Islamist President Mohammed Morsi on charges of murdering a policeman and attacking police, convicting them after only two sessions in one of the largest mass trials in the country in decades. The verdicts are subject to appeal and would likely be overturned, rights lawyers said. But they said the swiftness and harshness of the rulings on such a large scale underlined the extent to which Egypt's courts have been politicized and due process has been ignored...." CW: Sounds like an attempt to legalize mass murder.
Washington Post: "President Obama has ordered a sharp increase in U.S. Special Operations forces deployed to Uganda and sent U.S. military aircraft there for the first time in the ongoing effort to hunt down warlord Joseph Kony across a broad swath of central Africa."
Washington Post: "Observers on a Chinese search plane on Monday spotted some 'suspicious objects' in the southern Indian Ocean -- two large floating objects and many smaller white ones -- as the search for the missing Malaysian Airline flight entered its third week." ...
... The Guardian has live updates. ...
... UPDATE. Washington Post: "Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak said Monday that the missing Malaysia Airlines plane was lost in the southern Indian Ocean, effectively removing all hope that it might have survived the still unexplained diversion from its flight path more than two weeks ago. Reading from a prepared statement, Najib said new information from satellite data showed that the plane's last location was 'in the middle of the Indian Ocean west of Perth,' a city on Australia's west coast." ...
... UPDATE 2. Los Angeles Times: "The British company whose satellite data helped direct search efforts for Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 toward the south Indian Ocean said about two weeks ago that it had received 'routine' and 'automated' signals from the missing Boeing 777.... While the Boeing 777's transponders and communications systems were disabled, the airplane's satellite terminal was still on, "pinging" to try to maintain a connection with a satellite."