November 10, 2022

Afternoon Update:

The New York Times live updates of election developments today are here. Not much news, though a few more House races have been decided.

Marie: Just to give you an idea of how seriously Republicans have lost the trust of the voters, in the first midterm after President Clinton's election, Republicans gained 54 House seats; in President Obama's first midterm, Republicans gained 64 House seats. They cannot come anywhere close to that number this year. ~~~

     ~~~ Update: Aaron Blake of the Washington Post does an actual analysis (as compared to my little Wowza: "The 2022 election wasn't that good for today's Democrats. But it's clearly the exception to the rule that the opposition party benefits quite a bit in the midterms the vast majority of the time. And that's even more striking considering how many on the right assured just a few days ago that we were headed toward a 'red wave.'"

AP: "A man already in custody in last month's attack on the husband of U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was indicted Wednesday by a federal grand jury on charges of assault and attempted kidnapping. The charges against David DePape stem from the Oct. 28 break-in at the Pelosis'; San Francisco home are the same as but supersede those in an earlier federal complaint that was filed on October 31."

Hurubi Meko of the New York Times: "An 18-year-old man from Middlesex County, N.J., has been arrested and charged with threatening to attack a synagogue and Jews earlier this month, an episode that led to warnings from the Federal Bureau of Investigation in New Jersey of a broad security risk to synagogues in the state. The man, identified as Omar Alkattoul, of Sayreville, N.J., shared a document titled 'When Swords Collide' with several people through a social media application on Nov. 1, prosecutors said. Mr. Alkattoul admitted to writing the document, which included inflammatory language about relations between Jews and Muslims, and told a person he shared it with that the manifesto was 'in the context of an attack on Jews,' according to prosecutors. An individual who received a link to the document from Mr. Alkattoul informed law enforcement officials, according to the charging documents."

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Definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure. -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)

Republicans have followed Donald Trump off the side of a cliff. -- David Urban, longtime Trump advisor

Colby Itkowitz & Annie Linskey of the Washington Post: "Democrats continued to celebrate unexpected victories, notching several more wins in competitive House races on Wednesday, as control of the House and Senate remained uncertain. It could take weeks to find out which party ends up with more seats in the Senate. Two critical Senate races in Arizona and Nevada remained too early to call Wednesday, and a third in Georgia is headed for a Dec. 6 runoff after neither Democratic Sen. Raphael G. Warnock nor Republican Herschel Walker won more than 50 percent of the vote.... Republicans are likely to take control of the House, experts say, but by a much smaller margin than they expected.... House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R -Calif.) has already started to make calls asking for support in his bid to be the next speaker.... Democrats outperformed expectations in races across the country, lifted by anger over the Supreme Court's June decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, weak Republican candidates and an aggressive on-the-ground push to turn out voters.... Democrats also won control of the state House in Michigan [MB: for the first time in 40 years] and were close to doing so in Pennsylvania."

The World Is Watching. Emily Rauhala, et al., of the Washington Post: "Much of Europe breathed a sigh of relief Wednesday as a weaker-than-expected showing by Republicans and the absence of major election violence eased concern about turmoil in the transatlantic relationship and the health of American democracy -- at least for now. The results of the first major races since the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection are likely to lend some short-term stability to efforts to isolate Russia and support Ukrainian forces, the central concern for European officials and diplomats heading into the midterms. The outcome will also add a sense of continuity to day-to-day diplomacy. But for a continent still reeling from Trump-era upheavals, the midterm races were a bracing reminder that despite talk of bolstering Europe's 'strategic autonomy,' American politics still very much shape European affairs. With or without a 'red wave' this year, Europe knows that it has not seen the end of Donald Trump or Trumpism and must plan accordingly."

Kathryn Watson of CBS News: "Coming off an Election Day in which Democrats seemingly exceeded expectations and overcame historical trends in the battle for control of Congress, a smiling and emboldened President Biden said he plans to do 'nothing' different in his approach to the presidency, and offered a message for the millions of voters who don't want him to run again: 'Watch me.' Mr. Biden fielded reporters' questions at the White House for about an hour Wednesday, in keeping with a tradition of presidents holding news conferences following midterm elections. Mr. Biden, who said it's his 'intention' to run again but gave no definitive answer on that front, called Tuesday a 'strong night' for Democrats. 'It was a good day, I think, for democracy,' Mr. Biden said. 'And I think it was a good day for America. ... Our democracy has been tested in recent years, but with their votes, the American people have spoken and proven once again that democracy is who we are.'" ~~~

     ~~~ A transcript, via the White House, of President Biden's press conference is here. Video of the presser is here.

So Unfa-a-a-air! Michael Bender & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump faced unusual public attacks from across the Republican Party on Wednesday after a string of midterm losses by candidates he had handpicked and supported, a display of weakness as he prepared to announce a third presidential campaign as soon as next week.... Conservative allies criticized Mr. Trump on social media and cable news, questioning whether he should continue as the party's leader and pointing to his toxic political brand as the common thread woven through three consecutive lackluster election cycles. Mr. Trump was seen as largely to blame for the Republicans' underwhelming finish in Tuesday's elections, as a number of the candidates he had endorsed in competitive races were defeated -- including nominees for governor and Senate in Pennsylvania and for governor of Michigan, New York and Wisconsin. Still, Mr. Trump has built a deep well of loyalty with Republican voters, and party officials cautioned that it was too soon to tell whether he would suffer any lasting political damage...." ~~~

     ~~~ Bob Brigham of the Raw Story: "Retiring GOP Sen. Pat Toomey [Pa.] blamed Donald Trump for some of his handpicked candidates and predicted the former president would continue to lose influence in the Republican Party.... 'The more MAGA a candidate was, the more they tended to underperform even in their own states,' [Toomey told the Philadelphia Inquirer].... 'Like I said, when the primary criteria is allegiance to Donald Trump, the outcomes weren't very good,' Toomey said. '[Pennsylvania GOP gubernatorial candidate Doug] Mastriano's loss was on an epic scale, and it is very hard for down-ballot candidates to overcome that.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Say, what if Trump called for a protest and no one showed up? Oh, that happened. ~~~

     ~~~ Rosalind Helderman, et al., of the Washington Post: "As voters cast ballots largely without incident on Tuesday afternoon..., Donald Trump took to social media to declare that a minor, already rectified problem with absentee balloting in Detroit was 'REALLY BAD.... Protest, protest, protest,' he wrote just before 2:30 p.m. Unlike in 2020, when similar cries from the then-president drew thousands of supporters into the streets -- including to a tabulating facility in Detroit and later to the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021 -- this time, no one showed up. After two years of promises from Trump and his supporters that they would flood polls and counting stations with partisan watchers to spot alleged fraud, after unprecedented threats lodged against election workers, after calls to ditch machines in favor of hand counting and after postings on internet chat groups called for violent action to stop supposed cheating, a peaceful Election Day drew high turnout and only scattered reports of problems."

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "... Donald J. Trump told Mike Pence that he was 'too honest' when he balked at the idea he could unilaterally sway the outcome of the 2020 election as Mr. Trump mounted an intense pressure campaign to bend Mr. Pence to his will, the former vice president writes in his upcoming memoir.... Mr. Trump [also told] him that 'hundreds of thousands are gonna hate your guts' and 'people are gonna think you're stupid.'... In 'So Help Me God,' to be published Tuesday, Mr. Pence offers not only his first extensive comments about his experiences with Mr. Trump after the election and during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the Capitol by a mob of Trump supporters, but also his first lengthy reflections on the 2016 campaign and the four years that followed.... The vice president also shares dramatic details about escaping the rioters who had entered the Capitol while he was presiding over the certification that day." ~~~

     ~~~ If you have access to the Wall Street Journal, you can read an adapted excerpt from Pence's book. The adaptation is titled "My Last Days with Donald Trump." MB: I was able to access the excerpt, & it's essentially what Haberman recounts above. It also confirms some of what we learned from the January 6 committee hearings. In the meantime, I look forward to reading an excerpt from a book titled "The Last Days of Donald Trump."

Kyle Cheney & Josh Gerstein of Politico: "Mounting legal threats to Donald Trump may have appeared ominous before the 2022 congressional elections. They're nothing compared to what comes next.... With the voting largely complete, prosecutors are free to take more overt steps to advance their investigation.... Trump is undeniably entering the 2024 contest weakened and squeezed by rising Republican figures like Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.... The inability of Republicans to deliver massive margins of victory threatens to deprive Trump of the overwhelmingly Republican Congress that he had hoped would wield committee gavels and subpoena power to protect him and torment rivals.... [The January 6 committee is likely about to release more than 1,000 interview transcripts to the DOJ.]"

Tom Jackman of the Washington Post: "A Fairfax County[, Virginia,] judge rejected an attempt Wednesday by former House speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.) to evade a summons for his grand jury testimony in Georgia, where the Fulton County prosecutor is investigating efforts by supporters of ... Donald Trump to overturn the 2020 election results in that state.... Fulton County Judge Robert C.I. McBurney then issued an order last month for Gingrich to appear before the special grand jury. A court in the state where the witness lives must then approve that order.... Fairfax County Judge Robert J. Smith rejected [Gingrich's] argument [that the Fulton County special grand jury is not a 'real' grand jury under the law].... [Gingrich's attorney then] asked Smith to stay his order so that Gingrich might appeal. 'I'm not going to do that,' the judge replied. 'I'm going to sign it now and get things going.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: The way they're fighting Fani Willis' subpoenas, you'd almost think all these Trump gangsters -- Gingrich, Lindsey Graham, Mark Meadows -- had sudden realized they were criminals & didn't want to incriminate themselves.

Gregory Schneider of the Washington Post: "Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R) has sent a handwritten note of apology to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) over his comments last month that seemed to make light of the hammer attack against her husband, Paul Pelosi.... Speaking at a campaign rally in Stafford, Va. ... on Oct. 28, Youngkin mentioned the attack earlier that day on Pelosi's husband.... 'There's no room for violence anywhere, but we're going to send [Pelosi] back to be with him in California,' Youngkin said at the rally. The comment drew widespread rebukes, but Youngkin has resisted publicly apologizing for it." Pelosi's spokesman said she had accepted Youngkin's apology.

Julian Barnes of the New York Times: "A federal judge sentenced a Navy engineer to 19 years in prison on Wednesday and ... handed his wife nearly 22 years for the couple's botched attempt to sell sensitive nuclear propulsion secrets to a foreign country. U.S. District Judge Gina M. Groh gave a longer term to Diana Toebbe even though it was her husband, Jonathan, who held the security clearance and took the sensitive documents from the Navy. Judge Groh said the longer sentence for Ms. Toebbe was mainly because she found that Ms. Toebbe had tried to obstruct justice by attempting to send letters to her husband while in jail.... Prosecutors had asked for just three years for Ms. Toebbe, but Judge Groh said the offense was 'not your usual case.' In delivering her sentence, the judge said that while Mr. Toebbe, 44, had access to the information, Ms. Toebbe, 46, was 'driving the bus' and had a big role in crafting the plan and covering it up. Judge Groh had thrown out the original pleas by the Toebbes in August, arguing they were too lenient and forcing them to cut new deals with prosecutors, which opened the prospect of much longer prison sentences."

Elon McScrooge. Heather Kelly & Garrit De Vynck of the Washington Post: Twitter "on Wednesday released its much talked about revamped Twitter Blue subscription service for $7.99 a month. Its flagship feature is a signature check mark in blue next to your account name, which was previously free to notable accounts whose identity had been verified by the company. The rushed rollout has led to a confusing hierarchy of check marks on the site, uncertainty about which ones will be taken away, and attempts at impersonation and scams.... Here's everything thing you need to know about the change in how Twitter verifies users."

Georgia Senate Race

Elena Schneider of Politico: "The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is spending $7 million on field operations in the Georgia Senate runoff, kicking off an expensive overtime race that could give the winning party control of the Senate. The DSCC's multimillion-dollar expenditure on its ground game will fund direct voter contact programs, particularly door-to-door canvassing.... Field organizers will not be able to register new voters, so the primary focus will be on turning out the party's base again...."

Marc Caputo of NBC News: "Republican leaders don't want a repeat of [Georgia's] 2021 runoff, especially now that Trump has teased a 'big announcement' Tuesday, when he is widely expected to officially declare another White House bid. But Scott is staying mum on the Trump question.... Political commentator Erick Erickson, a [Brian] Kemp surrogate, said Republicans want Trump to stay away. 'The emails I'm getting all morning is: Can we keep Trump from coming to Georgia to help Herschel?' he said. 'If they can keep Trump off the radar, maybe they can get [Herschel] Walker across the finish line. If Trump shows up to help, that ruins it.'"

Way Beyond the Beltway

Ukraine, et al.

The New York Times' live updates of developments Thursday in Russia's war on Ukraine are here. The Guardian's live updates are here. The Guardian's summary report is here. ~~~

     ~~~ The Washington Post's live updates for Thursday are here: "The number of Russian and Ukrainian soldiers killed or wounded since the Feb. 24 invasion is likely to have reached 200,000, said Gen. Mark A. Milley, the top U.S. military official. 'Well over' 100,000 Russian soldiers have been killed or wounded in the war, and Ukraine has probably suffered a similar number of casualties, Milley told the Economic Club of New York.... The 100,000 figure is an increase from the Pentagon's previous estimate of Russian casualties, which was between 70,000 and 80,000 in August."

Marc Santora, et al., of the New York Times: "The Kremlin on Wednesday announced a retreat of Russian forces from the strategically important city of Kherson in southern Ukraine, a concession to military reality eight months after capturing the area, and one of the most significant reversals of President Vladimir V. Putin's war effort. The withdrawal order came from Russia's defense minister, Sergei K. Shoigu, in a meeting with top military leaders that was broadcast on Russian state television.... Mr. Putin was not present at the meeting, distancing him from both an embarrassing defeat and a decision to retreat that, Kremlin analysts say, only he could have made." MB: President Biden noted wryly in his press conference Wednesday that the Kremlin had waited until right after the U.S. elections.

News Ledes

CNBC: "The consumer price index rose less than expected in October, an indication that while inflation is still a threat to the U.S. economy, pressures could be starting to cool. The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services costs, increased 0.4% for the month and 7.7% from a year ago. Respective estimates from Dow Jones were for increases of 0.6% and 7.9%."

New York Times: "Hurricane Nicole whipped through Florida on Thursday, a rare November storm that crashed huge waves along the coast, collapsed houses into the Atlantic Ocean, required the evacuation of unstable waterfront condo buildings and washed away roads and beaches. Nicole, the first hurricane to come ashore on the state's Atlantic coast since Katrina in 2005, became a tropical storm shortly after making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane at around 3 a.m. south of Vero Beach. At least four deaths were attributed to the storm as it crossed the peninsula, and then swung offshore over the Gulf of Mexico and turned north, going back over land in the Big Bend region of Florida, just east of the Panhandle." ~~~

~~~ Weather Channel: "Nicole made landfall in Florida as a hurricane early Thursday morning, but its impacts including prolonged coastal flooding, beach erosion, strong winds, high surf, heavy rain and tornadoes will continue to impact other parts of the Southeast as well as the mid-Atlantic and Northeast through the end of the workweek. N​icole's center pushed ashore just south of Vero Beach, Florida, at 3 a.m. EST. It's maximum sustained winds were 75 mph, making Nicole a Category 1 hurricane. N​ow that Nicole is inland, it has weakened back to a strong tropical storm." ~~~

     ~~~ The New York Times' live updates are here.

Washington Post: "An outbreak of listeria tied to deli meat and cheese has killed one person, sickened 16 others and resulted in a lost pregnancy, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention announced Wednesday. The illnesses spanned six states. Investigators are trying to identify any specific products or delis that may have been contaminated, according to the CDC. Samples from sick people were collected from April 17, 2021, to Sept. 29, 2022.... The CDC reported that New York is home to seven of the sick people. Three live in Maryland. Massachusetts and Illinois each have two people who were sickened. New Jersey and California each have one person who fell ill."

November 9, 2022

President Biden will hold a press conference at 4:00 pm ET today.

Marie: My thanks to all those Democratic voters, and to those thoughtful independents & Republicans, who took time out of their busy lives to cast their votes for Democrats & for reproductive rights.

Thanks to a friend for sending this our way:

Definitely not a Republican wave, that is for darn sure. -- Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)

Marie: Sorry, my computer slowly broke down all last night. I'm working on setting up a new laptop, which I just took out of the box. Don't know how that will go. What appears on your computer probably isn't what appears on mine, which is messed up. I believe I'll spend today watching the latest installments of "The Crown."

"Results" are based on AP projections, except where indicated otherwise.

U.S. Senate

The current projected Senate total is 48 Democrats & 49 Republicans.

Alabama: Republican Katy Britt is projected to win.

Alaska: A Republican will win. Two Republicans are running: incumbent Sen. Lisa Murkowski & her Trump-endorsed opponent Kelly Tshibaka.

Arkansas: Incumbent Republican John Boozman is projected to win re-election.

California: Incumbent Democrat Alex Padilla is projected to win re-election.

Colorado: Incumbent Democrat Michael Bennet is projected to win re-election.

Connecticut: Incumbent Democrat Richard Blumenthal is projected to win re-election.

Florida: Incumbent Republican Marco Rubio is projected to win re-election.

Georgia: NBC News projects this race is headed to a run-off, as neither candidate will reach the 50% threshold. The run-off will take place December 6. MB: Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock is currently leading hopeful-Senator Heisman by about 40,000 votes, but the spoiler is a libertarian, who currently has about 2% of the vote, & libertarian voters tend to vote Republican, if they have no choice.

Hawaii: Incumbent Democrat Brian Schatz is projected to win re-election.

Idaho: Incumbent Republican Mike Crapo is projected to win re-election.

Illinois: Incumbent Democrat Tami Duckworth is projected to win re-election.

Indiana: Incumbent Republican Todd Young is projected to win re-election.

Iowa: Incumbent Republican Chuck Grassley is projected to win re-election.

Kansas: Incumbent Republican Jerry Moran is projected to win re-election.

Kentucky: Incumbent Republican Rand Paul is projected to win re-election.

Maryland: Incumbent Democrat Chris Van Hollen is projected to win.

Missouri: Republican Eric Schmitt is projected to win.

Louisiana. NBC News projects incumbent Republican John Kennedy will will re-election.

New Hampshire: Incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is projected to win re-election.

New York: Incumbent Democrat Chuck Schumer is projected to win re-election.

North Carolina. NBC News projects Republican Ted Budd will win. Too bad.

Ohio: NBC News projects incumbent Republican J.D. Vance will win. Very sad news.

Oklahoma: Incumbent Republican James Lankford is projected to win re-election.

Oklahoma Special Election: Republican Markwayne Mullin is projected to win.

Oregon: NBC News projects incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden will win re-election.

Pennsylvania: NBC News projects Democrat John Fetterman will win. Wowza!

North Dakota: Incumbent Republican John Hoeven is projected to win re-election.

South Carolina: Incumbent Republican Tim Scott is projected to win re-election.

South Dakota: Incumbent Republican John Thune is projected to win re-election.

Utah: Incumbent Republican Mike Lee is projected to win re-election.

Vermont: Democrat Peter Welch is projected to win. This was an open seat; Sen. Pat Leahy (D) will retire.

Washington State: NBC News projects incumbent Democrat Patty Murray will win re-election.

Wisconsin: Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson, the Stupidest Senator, is projected to win re-election. Sad.

The New York Times' live updates of election developments are here. The Washington Post's live election updates are here. CNN's live updates are here.

Other Election News

Lisa Lerer of the New York Times: "At the end of a campaign in which the fundamental conditions for Democrats seemed dire -- inflation at a 40-year high, an unpopular president -- Republicans could do no better than to end the evening still scratching here and there for the seats they needed to win control of the House, the minimum they could call a victory. All indications were that they would end up at best with one of the weakest performances in decades by the out-of-power party against a first-term president's party, a stark contrast to Republican gains of 54 House seats against President Bill Clinton in 1994 and 64 seats against President Barack Obama in 2010.... For a third time, after 2018 and 2020, voters displayed the limits of their tolerance for the pernicious strain of Trump-era politics that appears at times to accept or even incite violence and that challenges a core tenet of democracy: Voters cast ballots and politicians accept the results. Some of the figures who benefited most from Mr. Trump's backing -- like Mehmet Oz, the Republican nominee for Senate in Pennsylvania, Doug Mastriano, the Republican candidate for governor in Pennsylvania and Don Bolduc, the party's Senate candidate in New Hampshire -- were defeated. (Others, like J.D. Vance, the Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, won their races.)" ~~~

~~~ Hannah Knowles & Michael Scherer of the Washington Post: "Democrats showed strength in key battleground races Tuesday, potentially defying Republican hopes of sweeping victories in the midterm elections and leaving control of Congress hanging in the balance the morning after millions of Americans went to the polls. Republicans needed to flip five seats to retake the House and remained favored to take the majority after gaining some targeted districts. But the preliminary results reflected a closely divided country, with enthusiastic voters on both sides of the partisan divide. Republican efforts to tap anger over inflation and crime and strike deep into Democratic territory ran up against backlash over new restrictions on abortion and concerns about GOP extremism.... The evenly divided Senate remained up for grabs as both parties held on to competitive states.... 'While many races remain too close to call, it is clear that House Democratic Members and candidates are strongly outperforming expectations across the country,' [Nancy Pelosi] said in a statement."

Here's a fun Fox "News" story: David Rutz & Joseph Wulfsohn of Fox "News": "As the midterm results rolled in Tuesday night, and the 'red wave' long hoped for by Republicans had not materialized, many pundits and journalists across the spectrum pointed their fingers at former President Trump. As several Trump-backed candidates in major races lost or lagged behind other Republicans in their states, a consensus appeared to emerge that Trump had a bad night, although it was still up in the air whether Republicans would re-capture the House and Senate.... In the early hours of Wednesday morning, it still remained unclear if they would even take control of the House, a seemingly unthinkable proposition last week.... 'What I can tell you is the biggest loser tonight is Donald Trump,' [ABC News' Jonathan] Karl said."

Isaac Stanley-Becker & Drew Harwell of the Washington Post: "Misleading videos, recirculated months after they were shot, carried unfounded claims that Republican voters were being barred from the polls. Viral tweets spun early-morning mechanical problems with vote tabulators into elaborate claims of systematic fraud. And users on the pro-Trump extremist forum TheDonald urged armed intervention at ballot counting centers in Georgia, advising, 'If it gets violent, shoot first.'... Encouragement to storm counting sites in Georgia came in response to news that the mail-in ballot deadline had been extended for some voters in Cobb County following a logistical hiccup, according to the SITE Intelligence Group, which tracks online extremists.... Election myths built up over the last two years coalesced Tuesday into a torrent of misinformation that fed an alternative online ecosystem where all unfavorable election outcomes are suspect."

Arizona. Stuart Thompson, et al., of the New York Times: A series of technical glitches disrupted ballot counting on Tuesday at about one in four voting centers in Republican-led Maricopa County, Ariz., rekindling embers of baseless voter fraud claims in the right-wing media and politicians.... In the afternoon, the county said it had isolated the problem: printers were not making dark enough markings on the ballots. Bill Gates, chairman of the Maricopa County board of supervisors, and Stephen Richer, the county recorder, both Republicans, said the problems were disappointing but that voters could still cast ballots and that nobody was being denied a vote."

Pennsylvania. John Kruzel of the Hill: "A judge in Pennsylvania agreed to extend voting by two hours in Luzerne County, Pennsylvania, after a paper shortage was discovered at polling places. The county's voting deadline was extended from 8 p.m. to 10 p.m. under an emergency court order by Judge Lesa S. Gelb of the Luzerne County Court of Common Pleas."

Other News

Nastyman. Donald Trump Is Still Donald Trump. Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Several hours before polls opened on Tuesday for Election Day in Florida..., Donald J. Trump warned the state's governor, Ron DeSantis, against mounting a challenge to Mr. Trump's own anticipated presidential candidacy in the 2024 election cycle.... In remarks published on Tuesday by The Wall Street Journal, [Trump said,] 'If he did run, I will tell you things about him that won't be very flattering. I know more about him than anybody other than perhaps his wife, who is really running his campaign.' The former president, preparing to announce a rare candidacy for the White House after a defeat, was thus openly threatening to smear the person who would be considered his leading rival, should he choose to run."

Annie Grayer, et al., of CNN: "The House select committee investigating January 6 on Monday interviewed the driver of ... Donald Trump's presidential vehicle on the day of the US Capitol attack, multiple sources tell CNN. In recent days, the panel has interviewed a growing number of Secret Service agents and officials as part of its investigation, including the one-time head of former Vice President Mike Pence's security detail, Tim Giebels; former Secret Service agent John Gutsmiedl; agency spokesman Anthony Guglielmi; and the Secret Service agent who was in the lead car of Trump's motorcade on January 6."

Tom Jackman of the Washington Post: "Former House speaker Newt Gingrich, a Republican who represented Georgia, is scheduled to appear in a Fairfax County courtroom Wednesday morning to fight a demand that he testify before a Georgia special grand jury investigating possible attempts in that state to manipulate the 2020 presidential election.... The [January 6] committee alleged in a September letter that Gingrich urged Donald Trump and his team to spread false information about supposed election fraud in Georgia, and that he was involved in the scheme to have 'fake electors' submitted to Congress during the electoral college vote to have Trump declared the winner, though Joe Biden was certified as president. Gingrich has agreed to testify Nov. 21 before the committee about his actions. But in Fulton County, Ga., District Attorney Fani T. Willis is also investigating 'criminal disruptions' related to the election in Georgia, through a special grand jury. After seeing the Jan. 6 committee's letter to Gingrich, Willis sought Gingrich's testimony before the Fulton County special grand jury, court records show, and a judge there last month certified the need for the out-of-state witness."

Sheera Frenkel & Adam Satariano of the New York Times: "Meta [-- formerly known as Facebook --] said it was laying off more than 11,000, or about 13 percent of its work force, in what amounted to the company's most significant job cuts. The layoffs were made across departments, though some areas, like recruiting, were affected more than others.... The scale of the cuts -- nearly triple what Twitter announced last week -- represent a stunning fall for a once high-flying company whose ambition and room for growth had seemed limitless."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Ukraine, et al. The New York Times' live updates of developments Wednesday in Russia's war on Ukraine are here. ~~~

     ~~~ The Washington Post's live briefings for Wednesday are here: "WNBA star Brittney Griner is being transferred to a Russian penal colony, her lawyers said Wednesday, after a Russian court rejected an appeal of her 9½-year prison sentence. She has been detained in Russia on drug charges since February.... President Biden has directed his administration to 'prevail on her Russian captors' to improve her treatment and 'the conditions she may be forced to endure in a penal colony,' the White House said Wednesday. The statement said the United States was seeking to resolve 'the unacceptable and wrongful detentions' of Griner and ex-security consultant Paul Whelan, an American serving a 16-year sentence in Russia.... U.S. and Russian officials will resume meeting 'in the near future' under a critical nuclear arms control treaty, State Department spokesman Ned Price said Tuesday. The meetings are intended to facilitate inspections of nuclear sites in each country.... 'Brutal' battles were raging across the front lines, especially in Donetsk in eastern Ukraine, [President] Zelensky said. Russian forces, he said, have suffered 'large-scale losses' in the region but remain in control of swaths of territory."

News Ledes

The New York Times is live-updating developments of Hurricane/Tropical Storm Nicole, which is approaching Florida's east coast & is expected to land there today as a Category 1 hurricane. A Washington Post story is here.~~~

     ~~~ Washington Post: "Nicole intensified into a Category 1 hurricane Wednesday evening, as it churned ever closer to Florida's Atlantic coast. Conditions were deteriorating as the storm approached, with the worst expected overnight into early Thursday morning." The article also lists warnings & evacuations. MB: The article should be a freebie, but there's no indication that it is. ~~~

     ~~~ The Weather Channel, which is free to access, has live updates on Nicole here.

November 8, 2022

Late Morning Update:

The New York Times is live-updating election-day developments. CNN's live updates are here. And here are the Washington Post's live updates of election-day hoohah. Surprisingly, Ron DeSantis is behaving very badly.KK

Katelyn Polantz, et al., of CNN: "Pennsylvania Democratic Senate nominee John Fetterman's campaign has gone to a federal court to try to have Pennsylvania voters' mail-in ballots counted if they weren't signed with a valid date." MB: Gosh, swing voters, look who's fighting for you. It ain't teevee doc.

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Shannon Hall of the New York Times: “If you’re planning to wake up early to head to the polls on Tuesday, you'll get a shot at seeing the moon darken as it falls into Earth's shadow ... in the last total lunar eclipse until 2025.... In North America, observers on the West Coast will get the best view.... he total phase of the eclipse -- the true star of the show -- won't begin until 2:16 a.m. [PT] ... [and] will last for roughly 90 minutes until 3:41 a.m. [PT]. Viewers on the East Coast ... can catch totality, which will run from 5:16 a.m. Eastern time to 6:41 a.m...." MB Update: The eclipse was a bust at my house. Couldn't see the eclipse for the forest -- or the sun.

Today's Elections

Perry Stein, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Justice Department announced that it will dispatch workers to 64 jurisdictions in 24 states on Election Day to ensure that they are in compliance with federal voting law, an increase from the 44 jurisdictions to which it sent monitors for the 2020 presidential election.... The list of jurisdictions where the Justice Department will dispatch monitors provides a window into where federal law enforcement officials suspect there could be disputes or tensions around the voting process."

Amy Gardner & Emma Brown of the Washington Post: "Republican officials and candidates in at least three battleground states are pushing to disqualify thousands of mail ballots after urging their own supporters to vote on Election Day, in what critics are calling a concerted attempt at partisan voter suppression. In Pennsylvania, the state Supreme Court has agreed with the Republican National Committee that election officials should not count ballots on which the voter neglected to put a date on the outer envelope -- even in cases when the ballots arrive before Election Day. Thousands of ballots have been set aside as a result, enough to swing a close race. In Michigan, Kristina Karamo, the Republican nominee for secretary of state, sued the top election official in Detroit last month, seeking to toss absentee ballots not cast in person with an ID, even though that runs contrary to state requirements. When asked in a recent court hearing, Karamo's lawyer declined to say why the suit targets Detroit, a heavily Democratic, majority-Black city, and not the entire state. And in Wisconsin, Republicans won a court ruling that will prevent some mail ballots from being counted when the required witness address is not complete.... While the rejections may have some basis in state law, experts say they appear to go against a principle, enshrined in federal law, of not disenfranchising voters for minor errors." Emphasis added. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I can improve on that lede: "Republican officials and candidates in at least three battleground states are pushing to disqualify thousands of mail ballots after urging their own supporters to vote on Election Day, in what critics are calling a concerted attempt at partisan voter suppression." There. All fixed. As for the emphasized sentence, "appear to"? Really? For Pete's sake, if a ballot was received before Nov. 8, then obviously it was mailed before Nov. 8, unless a mess of Pennsylvania voters are skilled time-travelers or something. ~~~

     ~~~ So Then. Pennsylvania. Emma Brown & Amy Gardner of the Washington Post: "Six days after the Pennsylvania Supreme Court invalidated thousands of mail-in ballots in response to a Republican lawsuit, citizens in Philadelphia and other parts of this battleground state scrambled to cast replacements so their votes will be counted on Election Day.... 'Oh I'm going to vote. It's not a question,' said [Kirby] Smith, a 59-year-old Democrat who said he viewed the court decision as part of an attempt to block people from voting. 'I'm going to fight back.' Multiple judges have ruled over the past two years that mail ballots returned on time by eligible Pennsylvania voters should be counted even if they lack a date on the outer envelope. Republicans sued in October to reverse that policy, arguing that it violated state law. Last Tuesday, they won a favorable ruling from the state Supreme Court, which directed counties not to count ballots with missing or inaccurate dates. That decision triggered a sprawling volunteer-run effort to make sure voters who had already returned their ballots knew that their votes would not count if they didn't take action.... Not all counties in Pennsylvania notify voters when their mail ballots are deficient and allow them to submit replacements.... On Friday, several voting and rights groups filed a lawsuit in federal court, arguing that not counting those ballots over a 'meaningless technicality' would amount to a violation of civil rights law." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Not only is the state supreme court's decision a stupid violation of the right to vote, the timing of the decision -- about a week before a national election -- is unconscionable, particularly because the court was overruling multiple judges who had validated the ballots. This is changing the rules in the second quarter of a tie game. Four of the six current justices were elected as Democrats. Right.

Joan Greve of the Guardian: "Joe Biden rallied with fellow Democrats on Monday night, delivering a message of optimism and determination in the face of widespread concerns about his party's showing in Tuesday's midterm elections. Addressing a boisterous crowd in Maryland, Biden stressed the high stakes of the races that will determine control of the US Congress for the next two years. Painting a grim picture of a Republican-controlled Congress, Biden predicted that the opposing party would use their majorities to roll back Americans' rights and dismantle social welfare programs. 'Our lifetimes are going to be shaped by what happens the next year to three years,' Biden said. 'It's going to shape what the next couple decades look like.'" Oh, and Jill was there.~~~

~~~ Jada Yuan of the Washington Post: Jill Biden has campaigned in "an astounding number of states with the country's most competitive races -- Rhode Island, New Hampshire, New York, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Texas, Virginia and Maryland -- over the past two weeks. Not only that, she is descending onto tougher races than her husband, in states where animosity toward Democrats is high.... It is a testament to her popularity, as the most requested surrogate in the administration, and her ability to track well with Democrats without being toxic to swing voters or Republicans...."

AP: "Kremlin-connected entrepreneur Yevgeny Prigozhin admitted Monday that he had interfered in U.S. elections and would continue to do so -- confirming for the first time the accusations that he has rejected for years. 'Gentlemen, we have interfered, are interfering and will interfere. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,' Prigozhin boasted in remarks posted on social media. The statement, from the press service of his catering company that earned him the nickname 'Putin's chef,' came on the eve of U.S. midterm elections in response to a request for comment." MB: Prigozhin also heads the Wagner Group, mercenary soldiers who are fighting in Ukraine. Thanks to Forrest M. for the lead. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) The Washington Post's story is here.

Florida. Suppression & Intimidation Are the Point. Lori Rosza of the Washington Post: "Tuesday will mark the first major election in Florida since the legislature pushed through changes impacting voting in the Sunshine State. Voter advocates say the laws disproportionately impact Black voters -- making it harder for many to vote -- and have created an environment of confusion and fear.... 'These laws were put in place to intimidate people, and that's what's happening,' LaVon Bracy, the director of democracy for Faith in Florida, a religious nonprofit that encourages civic participation. 'People are just wondering, is it worth it?'"

Michigan, etc. Alexandra Berzon & Ken Bensinger of the New York Times: "The New York Times reviewed more than 20 hours of recordings of Michigan Fair Elections meetings, along with training sessions and organizing calls from closely linked groups. What emerged was a picture of an organization fueled by falsehoods, bent on trying to influence the 2022 midterms and determined to change the voting system in ways that would benefit Republicans. The Michigan group has counterparts around the country.... The Michigan coalition has largely kept its focus on the courts.... In [a] recent lawsuit..., [election deniers] joined with Kristina Karamo, Republican candidate for secretary of state, to ask a judge to effectively declare the absentee ballot system used in Detroit unlawful.... In a ruling issued on Monday, Judge Timothy Kenny rejected the claims, noting that the plaintiffs' demands would disenfranchise 60,000 voters who had already cast ballots. Every one of 12 accusations submitted 'are unsubstantiated and/or misinterpret Michigan law,' he wrote." A CBS News report on the failed attempt to throw out Detroit voters' ballots is here.

Amy Wang of the Washington Post: "In her first televised interview since a violent attack on her husband, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) broke her silence about how frightened she was to learn of the assault that took place in their San Francisco home." Capitol Police officers awakened her at her home in Washington D.C. at about 5 am on October 28; they did not know the extent of Paul Pelosi's injuries or his condition. The New York Times story is here. The Guardian's report is here. Video of the interview, with Anderson Cooper, is here.

I'm Just a Poor, Persecuted Patriot, Unlike My Friends. Spencer Hsu & Tom Jackman of the Washington Post: "Oath Keepers founder Stewart Rhodes categorically denied any plan to attack the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, and said Monday that his call for co-defendants to come to Washington armed and ready to 'take matters into their own hands' if ... Donald Trump failed to act was meant to inspire action only after he left office. The testimony by Rhodes, a former Army paratrooper and Yale Law School graduate, marked the climax of his seditious conspiracy trial with four others.... Rhodes said he was unaware that accused Florida co-defendant Kelly Meggs led other Oath Keepers members 'off-mission' into the building and that doing so was 'stupid' because 'it opened the door for our political enemies to persecute us'; he claimed he was not involved in defendants' stockpiling of firearms nearby; he blamed girlfriend and Oath Keepers attorney Kellye SoRelle for ordering members under his name to delete evidence; and he asserted that he meant for any call to resist federal authority to apply after Biden took office, and not before the inauguration to keep Trump in power as charged[.]...

"But U.S. prosecutor Kathryn L. Rakoczy led Rhodes through statement after statement, in public and in private, in which Rhodes urged Trump to call on the U.S. military and private militia to overturn the 2020 presidential election.... The contrast between Rhodes's testimony on the stand and his past remarks was a recurring theme of government questioning, which threatened to make Rhodes and his defense regret their calculation that he was the witness best situated to explain his true state of mind to jurors.... In his testimony, Rhodes also implicated other Oath Keepers defendants, and gave U.S. prosecutors wide opening to attack his credibility."

Here's that Rachel Maddow podcast that Akhilleus discussed in yesterday's Comments:

AP: "New Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson has issued her first Supreme Court opinion, a short dissent Monday in support of a death row inmate from Ohio. Jackson wrote that she would have thrown out lower court rulings in the case of inmate Davel Chinn, whose lawyers argued that the state suppressed evidence that might have altered the outcome of his trial. Jackson, in a two-page opinion, wrote that she would have ordered a new look at Chinn's case 'because his life is on the line and given the substantial likelihood that the suppressed records would have changed the outcome at trial.'... Justice Sonia Sotomayor was the only other member of the court to join Jackson's opinion. The two justices also were allies in dissent Monday in Sotomayor's opinion that there was serious prosecutorial misconduct in the trial of a Louisiana man who was convicted of sex trafficking." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Today's Social Media Bulletin

Marie: Gosh, I wish I knew how to do those Twitter hashtag things. Because, if I did, I'd do one called #HowDumbIsElon.

     Entry No. 1. Reuters, republished by Yahoo! News: "After Twitter Inc laid off roughly half its staff on Friday following Elon Musk's $44 billion acquisition, the company is now reaching out to dozens of employees who lost their jobs and asking them to return, Bloomberg News reported on Sunday. Some of those who are being asked to return were laid off by mistake. Others were let go before management realized that their work and experience may be necessary to build the new features Musk envisions, the report said citing people familiar with the moves." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

     Entry No. 2. Nicole Guadiano of Business Insider, republished by Yahoo! News: "... Elon Musk urged his Twitter followers on Monday to elect a Republican Congress on Tuesday in an appeal to 'independent-minded voters.'... 'Shared power curbs the worst excesses of both parties, therefore I recommend voting for a Republican Congress, given that the Presidency is Democratic,' he tweeted...." MB: Let's call that "Notes from La-La Land." You don't have to be much of a student of U.S. politics over the past 20 years to know that "shared power leads to gridlock." Yeah, I suppose it curbs "excesses" because it curbs everything. Which is, Elon, an excess in itself; an excess of inertia & dysfunction. It would help, I suppose, if both parties knew how to "share power," but no one in your preferred party knows how to share. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Trump Is Stuck with Liars Social. Drew Harwell & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: Donald "Trump has told his allies that he can't leave Truth Social, because he's propping it up, and he doesn't want a site so closely associated with his brand to collapse, according to people familiar with his thinking.... Trump's 4 million followers on the platform are a small fraction of the 88 million he once had on Twitter, and his dozens of posts -- called 'truths' -- there in recent weeks have received none of the broad engagement and traction he counted on during his presidency.... In February 2021..., Trump signed a document with a 'mutual noncompete' clause pledging not to work with anyone else in exchange for 90 percent of the company's shares, [Will] Wilkerson, the former Trump Media executive, told The Post. He was fired last month after that interview." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Sheera Frenkel of the New York Times: "Meta plans to lay off employees this week, three people with knowledge of the situation said, adding that the job cuts were set to be the most significant at the company since it was founded in 2004.... Meta had 87,314 employees at the end of September, up 28 percent from a year ago. Meta has been struggling financially for months and has been increasingly clamping down on costs. The Silicon Valley company, which owns Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and Messenger, has spent billions of dollars on the emerging technology of the metaverse, an immersive online world, just as the global economy has slowed and inflation has soared. At the same time, digital advertising -- which forms the bulk of Meta's revenue -- has weakened as advertisers have pulled back, affecting many social media companies. Meta's business has also been hurt by privacy changes that Apple enacted, which have hampered the ability of many apps to target mobile ads to users." MB: Don't worry, kids. There are a few openings at Twitter, and I hear Elon is an excellent employer.

2024 Election

Michael Bender of the New York Times: "On the climactic, final night of the 2022 midterm campaigns, Donald J. Trump hosted a rally to help lift a Senate hopeful in Ohio -- and instead grabbed the spotlight entirely for himself. In a windy oration on a chilly airport tarmac outside Dayton, Mr. Trump spent the vast majority of his time talking about his four years as president, the multiple investigations he has survived, the handful of new investigations he is now facing, and, once again, a drawn-out tease about his plan to probably-potentially-in-all-likelihood announce a third campaign for president. This time, however, he named the date and place. 'I'm going to be making a very big announcement on Nov. 15 at Mar-a-Lago in Palm Beach, Florida,' he said in the final minutes of his 100-minute speech." ~~~

     ~~~ Projection of a Dangerous Kind. Ed Mazza of the Huffington Post, republished by Yahoo! News: "... Donald Trump called House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) an 'animal' during a speech on Monday and in response, his supporters cheered. During a rally in Ohio, Trump recalled dismissing MS-13 gang members as 'animals' during his presidency. Then, he said the same insult applied to the House speaker. 'I think she's an animal, too, if you want to know the truth,' Trump said as the crowd roared with approval. 'They'll say, "Oh,what a horrible thing he said about Nancy." She impeached me twice for nothing! Nothing!'"

Trump Finally Gets Something Right. Reid Epstein & Michael Bender of the New York Times: "... a new video released by [Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis'] campaign on Friday hints at the governor's broader national ambitions. Posted to Twitter by his wife, Casey DeSantis, the 96-second video invokes God 10 times and suggests that Mr. DeSantis was sent by a divine power.... Donald J. Trump ... wasn't amused. He called the governor 'Ron DeSanctimonious' during a rally Saturday in Pennsylvania."

Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Erik Wemple of the Washington Post: "No, MSNBC is not the Fox News of the left.... While Fox News remains a talking-point-promotion outlet for Republican candidates, its liberal counterpart on the cable box does something vastly different for Democratic candidates. It covers them, that is."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Ukraine, et al. The New York Times' live updates of developments Tuesday in Russia's war on Ukraine are here. The Guardian's live briefings for Tuesday are here. The Guardian's summary report is here. ~~~

     ~~~ The Washington Post's live briefings for Tuesday are here: "Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said world leaders should 'force Russia into genuine peace negotiations,' and that Kyiv had 'repeatedly proposed' talks. He blamed Russia for obstructing those efforts and described Ukraine's demands -- including restoring its territory and receiving security guarantees -- as 'completely understandable conditions.' The speech follows reporting from The Washington Post that the Biden administration has privately encouraged Kyiv to signal an openness to negotiate an end to the war. Washington and Moscow have maintained communication channels at senior levels, the White House says.... Top officials at COP27 are highlighting the impact of the war on energy systems and the crisis wrought by dependence on fossil fuels.... The Kremlin's war has worsened the world's energy and food crises, undermining efforts to halt 'the destruction of the climate,' [Zelensky] said as heads of state from around the world meet in Egypt for the annual U.N. climate summit, or COP27."

Pjotr Sauer of the Guardian: A newly-conscripted Russian soldier, Aleksei Agafonov, says that commanders abandoned him & his fellow conscripts as shelling started in the Luhansk region of Ukraine. "According to Agafonov's estimates, only 130 draftees out of the 570 survived the Ukrainian attack, which would make it the deadliest known incident involving conscripts since the start of the mobilisation drive at the end of September.... The incident points to Russia's willingness to throw hundreds of ill-prepared conscripts on to the frontline in Ukraine's east, where some of the heaviest fighting has been taking place, in an effort to stem Kyiv's advances. There is growing anger in Russia as more coffins return from Ukraine, bringing home the remains of conscripts."

Switzerland. U.S. Arrogance Is Exceeded Only by Swiss Arrogance. Hiroko Tabuchi of the New York Times: "Switzerland, one of the world's richest nations, has an ambitious climate goal: It promises to cut its greenhouse gas emissions in half by 2030. But the Swiss don't intend to reduce emissions by that much within their own borders. Instead, the European country is dipping into its sizable coffers to pay poorer nations, like Ghana or Dominica, to reduce emissions there -- and give Switzerland credit for it.... If other nations follow Switzerland's lead, critics say, it could delay climate action in wealthier parts of the world while shifting the work of reducing emissions toward the global poor. In addition, it could take advantage of projects in poorer countries that would have proceeded anyway, with or without foreign funding."

News Lede

Washington Post: "Hurricane watches are in effect for the east coast of Florida and may be upgraded to warnings Tuesday as Subtropical Storm Nicole churns toward the Sunshine State. Confidence is increasing about the potential for the storm to be near or at hurricane strength as it makes landfall on Florida&'s Atlantic coastline Wednesday night." An AP report is here.