The Commentariat -- October 9, 2019

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Ben Hubbard of the New York Times: "Turkey launched a planned military incursion into northeastern Syria on Wednesday aimed at flushing out a Syrian militia backed by the United States, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wrote on Twitter.... [Erdogan] provided no other information about where Turkish forces had entered Syria or how far in they would go. Earlier Wednesday, a Syrian militia backed by the United States had mobilized its forces and warned of a 'humanitarian catastrophe' as Turkey massed troops near the countries' border for an incursion it said would begin 'shortly.'" The NBC News report is here. ~~~

~~~ ** Heidi Przybyla & Anna Schecter of NBC News: "... the fact that Trump made his decision to pull the U.S. troops out of Syria shortly after the phone call with Erdogan has raised alarm bells from policymakers, as well as government ethics watchdog groups who have long seen Trump's extensive business interests as a potential area for conflicts of interest.... Trump and his family have long had business ties in and with Turkey, the most visible example being the Trump Towers Istanbul, which licenses the Trump name.... The Washington Post has reported that the organization was paid up to $10 million to put the Trump name on the two buildings. Erdogan attended the opening ceremony of the office and residential towers in 2012.... In 2015, Trump acknowledged having a potential 'conflict' when it came to issues involving Turkey. 'I have a little conflict of interest because I have a major, major building in Istanbul,' Trump said.... Businesses linked to the Turkish government are also major patrons of the Trump Organization. Turkish officials have made 14 visits to Trump properties, more than any other country, according to an analysis performed for NBC News by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, or CREW."

Christopher Ingraham of the Washington Post: "A new book-length study on the tax burden of the ultrarich begins with a startling finding: In 2018, for the first time in history, America's richest billionaires paid a lower effective tax rate than the working class. 'The Triumph of Injustice,' by economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman of the University of California at Berkeley, presents a first-of-its kind analysis of Americans' effective tax rates since the 1960s. It finds that in 2018 the average effective tax rate paid by the richest 400 families in the country was 23 percent, a full percentage point lower than the 24.2 percent rate paid by the bottom half of American households. In 1980, by contrast, the 400 richest had an effective tax rate of 47 percent. In 1960, that rate was as high as 56 percent. The effective tax rate paid by the bottom 50 percent, by contrast, has changed little over time."

Adrienne Westenfeld of Esquire: "In All the President's Women: Donald Trump and the Making of a Predator, journalists Barry Levine and Monique El-Faizy draw on over 100 interviews ... to craft a detailed history of Trump's relationships with women.... What emerges from the authors' reporting is a portrait of a predator who hides behind wealth and institutional power to frequently harass and abuse women.... In this exclusive excerpt from All the President's Women, Levine and El-Faizy investigate an alleged wave of unwanted touching that preceded his proposal to Melania Knauss, including a disturbing instance of groping at Mar-a-Lago."

Ed Dickson of Rollng Stone: "Back in 2017, former Today Show anchor Matt Lauer was fired following sexual misconduct allegations from a show staffer. At the time, however, both the identity of his accuser and the nature of the allegations against him were not publicly revealed. Excerpts from the upcoming book Catch and Kill by journalist Ronan Farrow, however, reveals the identity of the staffer and sheds light on the allegations, claiming that Lauer was let go from NBC after she accused him of anally raping her in a hotel room. In excerpts published by Variety on Tuesday, Farrow quotes the employee, whom he identifies as NBC producer Brooke Nevils, at length. Nevils alleges that Lauer anally raped her in his hotel room while he was covering the 2014 Winter Olympics in Sochi, Russia." Mrs. McC: I think this is the Variety story Dickson mentions.

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** Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "A White House official who listened to President Trump’s July phone call with Ukraine's leader described it as 'crazy,' 'frightening' and 'completely lacking in substance related to national security,' according to a memo written by the whistle-blower at the center of the Ukraine scandal, a C.I.A. officer who spoke to the White House official. The official was 'visibly shaken by what had transpired,' the C.I.A. officer wrote in his memo, one day after Mr. Trump pressured President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in a July 25 phone call to open investigations that would benefit him politically. A palpable sense of concern had already taken hold among at least some in the White House that the call had veered well outside the bounds of traditional diplomacy, the officer wrote. 'The official stated that there was already a conversation underway with White House lawyers about how to handle the discussion because, in the official's view, the president had clearly committed a criminal act by urging a foreign power to investigate a U.S. person for the purposes of advancing his own re-election bid in 2020,' the C.I.A. officer wrote.'... The inspector general, Michael Atkinson, handed the two-page memo over to Congress last week along with other documents that shed light on the whistle-blower and his actions." The ABC News story is here. ~~~

The Oblivious Idiot.~~~ Pamela Brown, et al., of CNN: "In the hours and days after the Ukrainian President signed-off [his phone call with President Trump]... nervous word spread among national security aides about the contents of the ... call, an early show of worry that Trump's request for an investigation into Joe Biden was far from the 'perfect' conversation he now insists transpired. The scramble and fallout from the call, described by six people familiar with it, parallels and expands upon details described in the whistleblower complaint. The anxiety and internal concern ... shows an ultimately unsuccessful effort to contain the tumult by the administration's lawyers. At least one National Security Council official alerted the White House's national security lawyers about the concerns, three sources familiar with the matter said.... Those same lawyers would later order the transcript of the call moved to a highly classified server typically reserved for code-word classified material. Those concerns were raised independently of the complaint brought forward by an intelligence community whistleblower.... There is little sign, at least in the call's immediate aftermath, that the President himself was aware of the scramble ensuing among his underlings to contain the fallout of his conversation." ~~~

~~~ Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "On Tuesday, an interview conducted with [U.S. Ambassador to the E.U. Gordon] Sondland on July 26 by an English-language Ukrainian television network resurfaced.... 'I actually spoke with President Trump just a few minutes before he placed the call [to Zelensky on July 25],' Sondland said. 'And not only did the president call to congratulate President Zelensky but also to begin the collaboration of charting the pathway forward with the U.S.'s support of Ukraine and a White House visit that's upcoming for President Zelensky.'... The timing is important.... At 8:36 a.m., [special envoy to Ukraine Kurt] Volker texted a Zelensky aide named Andrey Yermak. 'Heard from White House,' Volker wrote. 'Assuming President [Zelensky] convinces trump he will investigate / "get to the bottom of what happened" in 2016, we will nail down date for visit to Washington. Good luck!' That 'get to the bottom' likely refers to the theory underpinning Trump's interest in investigating Biden *.... The Volker text message offered an explicit quid pro quo -- Zelensky says he'll investigate 2016 and he'll get a White House visit. Sondland's reference to speaking to Trump around the same time hints at the possibility of a more direct line from Volker's offer through Sondland to Trump." ~~~

     ~~~ * Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: I think that "2016" reference refers not to Biden but to Trump's conspiracy theory that Ukraine had possession of a server holding a trove of evidence proving Ukraine, not Russia, hacked the DNC in 2016. It is based partly on this bizarre right-wing theory that Bill Barr is running around the world annoying out allies trying to prove the FBI & U.S. intelligence agencies had set up Russia, which surely had nothing to do with interfering with the 2016 presidential election. (Right. See Vox report on release of Senate Intel report below.) However, it doesn't much matter which conspiracy theory Trump wants Zelensky to "investigate"; as Bump demonstrates, "the Volker text message offered an explicit quid pro quo." ~~~

~~~ Josh Lederman, et al., of NBC News: "Ambassador to the European Union Gordon Sondland consulted directly with ... Donald Trump before telling the top U.S. diplomat in Ukraine that there had been 'no quid pro quo' regarding the administration's pressure campaign on the country and urging the diplomat to stop texting about his concerns.... Sondland spoke to Trump by phone on Sept. 9 before responding to acting Ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor's remark that it would be 'crazy' to link Ukraine assistance to help with a political campaign.... Sondland, Taylor and former U.S. envoy to Ukraine Kurt Volker also used the encrypted messaging app WhatsApp, in addition to regular text messages, to communicate about the administration's Ukraine efforts. The use of WhatsApp has raised questions about the potential problems it could pose for complying with federal record-keeping requirements.... Sondland is part of a small cadre of ambassadors who enjoy direct and frequent access to Trump, U.S. officials and others with knowledge of their relationship also say." ~~~

~~~ Katelyn Polantz, et al., of CNN: "... Donald Trump directed Secretary of Energy Rick Perry and two top State Department officials to deal with his private attorney Rudy Giuliani when the Ukrainian President sought to meet Trump, in a clear circumvention of official channels, according to two sources familiar with the conversation. Trump believed Ukraine was still rampantly corrupt and said that if President Volodymyr Zelensky wanted to meet with him, Giuliani would have to be convinced first, one source said.... Trump's push to have Giuliani as gatekeeper is more direct than what was previously disclosed by one of the meeting's participants [Kurt Volker] in his statement to the House last week. It also further demonstrates how significant Giuliani was in brokering access to the President regarding Ukraine policy and in passing messages to other administration officials.... 'The President was very skeptical [of Zelensky],' Volker said [in testimony] to the House committees, describing what had happened when he, [Gordon] Sondland and Perry [told] Trump [that Zelensky was a trustworthy reformer]. 'In the course of that conversation, [Trump] referenced conversations with Mayor Giuliani.... He was clearly receiving other information from other sources, including Mayor Giuliani, that was more negative, causing him to retain this negative view' of a corrupt Ukraine, Volker added." ~~~

     ~~~ Ken Vogel & others at the New York Times get around to looking at Rick Perry's role in the Ukraine scandal: "Mr. Perry's role in the diplomacy between the countries highlights the degree to which Mr. Trump entrusted his Ukraine policy to an ad hoc coalition of loyalists inside and outside the government, especially after the recall of the ambassador to Ukraine amid questions among Mr. Trump's supporters about her loyalty to the president. It also reveals the extent to which Ukrainian politics and national security revolve around energy supplies. Mr. Perry's efforts, while broadly consistent with American national security and energy objectives, intersected with those of the figures involved in the pressure campaign." Mrs. McC: The AP & Politico stories I linked last week seemed more useful. The only news here seems to be that when Perry suggested names to add to Naftogaz's board, he was encouraging Naftogaz to consider "removing from the supervisory board a former Obama administration official named Amos J. Hochstein. Mr. Hochstein had worked with Mr. Biden on his Ukraine efforts as vice president." But the NYT reporters also let Perry off the hook by asserting that "the Ukrainian government had requested recommendations from Mr. Perry for Americans who could advise Naftogaz and the government...." (Also linked yesterday.)

Catch 22. Senior administration official, in call orchestrated by White House, declined to specify what would need to change for White House to cooperate with impeachment inquiry. A 'full halt,' official says on the call, of interviews or document requests. -- Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post, in a tweet

Translation: We'll cooperate with the impeachment inquiry when there is no impeachment inquiry. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie

Nicholas Fandos, et al., of the New York Times: "The White House declared war on the House impeachment inquiry on Tuesday, announcing that it would not cooperate with what it called an illegitimate and partisan effort 'to overturn the results of the 2016 election' of Donald J. Trump. In a letter to House Democratic leaders, the White House said the inquiry violated precedent and President Trump's due process rights in such an egregious way that neither he nor the executive branch would willingly provide testimony or documents, a daring move that sets the stage for a constitutional clash." Politico has stories here and here.

~~~ Here's a copy of the 8-page letter (via Politico), addressed to Speaker Nancy Pelosi & the chairs of three House committees & signed by White House counsel Pat Cippolone. Mrs. McC: Although the letter has a buncha footnotes, many refer to newspaper clippings & press releases; several teevee pundits have described it as akin to a "press release" rather than as a document making a legal argument. The letter reportedly went through several drafts, and one pundit suggested that though drafts probably had a lot of Sharpie notations. On the upside, seldom has a fuck-you letter been so neatly typed. ~~~

For a while, the President has tried to normalize lawlessness. Now, he is trying to make lawlessness a virtue. The American people have already heard the President's own words -- 'do us a favor, though.' The President's actions threaten our national security, violate our Constitution and undermine the integrity of our elections. The White House letter is only the latest attempt to cover up his betrayal of our democracy, and to insist that the President is above the law. -- Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Tuesday (full statement here)

Wow. This letter is bananas. A barely-lawyered temper tantrum. A middle finger to Congress and its oversight responsibilities. No Member of Congress should accept it, no matter his or her view on the behavior of Pelosi, Schiff, or Trump. Things are bad. Things will get worse. -- Greg Nunziata, former aide to Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.), in a tweet ~~~>

~~~ Jonathan Chait: "At the level of tone, [Cippolone's letter to the House committees] reads like an extended Trumpian rally diatribe lightly edited by an attorney. At the level of substance, it is almost pure, uncut Trump. It repeats a series of immaterial, laughably false claims, surrounding the audacious thesis that impeaching Trump is literally illegal. The letter's most persistent argument revolves around attacks on House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff.... The presence of ... vapid talking points in a putative legal document is tribute to the dearth of support for its shocking central claim: that the House has no right to impeach Trump. It calls the proceedings illegal,' and one of Congress' 'unconstitutional efforts to overturn the democratic process.' There is no remotely plausible constitutional theory to support this claim." ~~~

~~~ Ditto Charles Pierce: "Gaze in awe, now, at The Constitution According to Camp Runamuck.... The letter goes on -- for eight pages, so you know that El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago didn't write the damn thing -- to throw up every bit of Fox News-approved, wingnut-certified, nutball, quasi-legalistic hoodoo into the clear air.... This letter ... [is] a MAGA rally draped in a toga."

Jeremy Herb, et al., of CNN: "House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff on Tuesday called the State Department's blocking testimony of a key witness 'strong evidence of obstruction' of Democrats' impeachment investigation, and the move is prompting House Democrats to issue a subpoena for the testimony in response." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

Trump Owns Obstruction: I would love to send Ambassador Sondland, a really good man and great American, to testify, but unfortunately he would be testifying before a totally compromised kangaroo court, where Republican's rights have been taken away. -- Donald Trump, in a tweet Tuesday morning ~~~

~~~ Cristina Marcos of the Hill: "The chairmen of the three House committees leading Democrats' impeachment inquiry said Tuesday that they will issue a subpoena to ... Gordon Sondland, the ambassador to the European Union..., a key official that the State Department blocked from testifying.... House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) said they would subsequently move to subpoena Sondland later Tuesday for testimony and documents." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Trump Blindsides Guy without a Jacket, Other Allies. Cristina Cabrera of TPM: "Five of ... Donald Trump's loyalists in the House immediately sided with the President when he abruptly blocked Ambassador Gordon Sondland from testifying in the impeachment inquiry on Tuesday -- but they were reportedly frustrated that the White House hadn't told them about it first. According to a Bloomberg report, Reps. Jim Jordan (R-OH), Mark Meadows (R-NC), Matt Gaetz (R-FL), Lee Zeldin (R-NY), and Scott Perry (R-PA) went straight to the White House after defending Trump's honor at a press conference (during which Gaetz accused House Intelligence Chair Adam Schiff (D-CA) of being a 'malicious Captain Kangaroo'). Unnamed sources told Bloomberg that the five blindsided Republicans asked the White House for clearer communication on its anti-impeachment strategy during the meeting." ~~~

     ~~~ Charles Pierce: "The Republicans have no leg to stand on and they know it. There's no privilege they can invoke. Sondland is obviously a key witness directly involved with the events that the House is tasked with investigating. The way you know that is that the president*'s account on the electric Twitter machine admits that's the case."

~~~ The Midnight Hide of Mike Pompeo. Michael Isikoff of Yahoo! News: "The State Department waited until 12:30 a.m. on Tuesday to tell U.S. Ambassador Gordon Sondland not to show up for his scheduled deposition with three House committees later that morning, the ambassador's lawyer told Yahoo News. Robert Luskin, Sondland's attorney, said he got the extraordinary middle-of-the-night directive in a phone call from a State Department official he declined to identify. The official offered no explanation of the grounds on which the State Department was blocking Sondland's appearance at the last minute." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Allan Smith & Geoff Bennett of NBC News: Ambassador Gordon Sondland's attorney Robert Luskin said "that Sondland 'is profoundly disappointed that he will not be able to testify today.' Luskin noted that Sondland traveled to Washington from Brussels 'in order to prepare for his testimony and to be available to answer the Committee's questions. Arrangements had already been made with Joint Committee staff regarding the logistics of his testimony,' Lusin said.... Luskin said the ambassador 'hopes' the State Department's qualms that 'precludes his testimony will be resolved promptly.'... Speaking with reporters Tuesday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., lamented that 'not only is the Congress being deprived of' Sondland's testimony, 'but we are also aware the ambassador has text messages or emails on a personal device which have been provided to the State Department.'... He called the messages 'deeply relevant to this investigation and the impeachment inquiry' and said Democrats would consider the failure to obtain Sondland's documents and testimony as evidence of obstruction." (Also linked yesterday.)

Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Tuesday that he will invite ... Rudy Giuliani to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee about Ukraine.... Graham said that his decision came after hearing from Giuliani on 'numerous occasions disturbing allegations ... about corruption in Ukraine and the many improprieties surrounding the firing of former Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.... Given the House of Representatives' behavior, it is time for the Senate to inquire about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine,' he added.... The hearing would likely give Giuliani a forum to air his claims that the former vice president pushed a former top prosecutor in Ukraine to be fired to help his son. There's been no evidence of wrongdoing by the former vice president. It would also give three 2020 Democratic presidential candidates -- Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.), Kamala Harris (Calif.) and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) -- a high-profile stage to question Giuliani, and knock Trump. Harris quickly pounced on Graham's announcement, adding in a tweet: 'Good. I have questions.' The decision to invite Giuliani marks a reversal for Graham, who had previously indicated that he wanted 'all things Ukraine' investigated but didn't think the Senate should be the body leading the probe." (Also linked yesterday.)

"Wow, Okay." Spencer Hsu of the Washington Post: "Justice Department lawyers urged a federal judge Tuesday to deny a House Judiciary Committee request for grand-jury materials from ... Robert S. Mueller III's investigation, arguing that despite legal rulings during the impeachment inquiry into President Richard M. Nixon, in hindsight courts in 1974 should not have given Congress materials from the Watergate grand jury. 'Wow, okay,' Chief U.S. District Judge Beryl A. Howell of Washington responded.... 'As I said, the department is taking extraordinary positions in this case.' Howell called the stance one of several 'extreme' arguments presented by Trump administration lawyers in opposing the House request for Mueller grand-jury materials, part of a widening impeachment investigation of President Trump.... Howell did not say how or when she would rule but ordered Justice Department attorneys to explain by Friday why prosecutors are not sharing the information under another exception that allows prosecutors to give federal or foreign officials information about 'grave hostile acts of a foreign power' or 'clandestine intelligence gathering.' Howell also ordered the department to disclose how many -- and which -- FBI witness interview reports that it pledged to give the committee.... In an evening filing, the Justice Department said it had provided the committee access to FBI reports for 17 of 33 individuals it requested, although those of senior Trump advisers Uttam Dhillon and Rob Porter were mostly redacted to protect conversations with the president." The Politico story is here.

Benghaaazi! Redux. Alayna Treene, et al., of Axios: "President Trump has asked former South Carolina Rep. Trey Gowdy to assist him with legal advice from outside the White House and Gowdy has agreed, though details are yet to be finalized, according to people familiar with the situation."

Jonathan Chait: "Impeachment is growing steadily more popular ... [for] several reasons.... This isn't Russia.... The political impact of the Russia probe was smothered both by its dependence on Robert Mueller, who was held back by an almost monk-like desire to escape politics by giving Trump every benefit of the doubt, and the sheer complexity of the affair.... Even Republicans have trouble defending it.... The story can get worse.... There are going to be more witnesses and more records of communication. Trump is going to keep lying and saying crazy things.... The politics can get worse, too.... When Democrats all say Trump has done something wrong, and Republicans are divided, people will get the message that he's probably in the wrong."

Samantha Grasso of Splinter: "Amid ... Donald Trump's insistence that this should all go away, most Americans support the impeachment inquiry into Trump, and almost half of supporters say they also support removing the president from office, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll. More specifically, 58 percent of Americans thinks that Congress should have launched an impeachment inquiry into Trump's behavior. Meanwhile, 49 percent of Americans go the extra mile, saying they support the impeachment inquiry and removing Trump from office.... This is a marked uptick from the last time the poll was taken, when 59 percent said they didn't support impeachment while just 37 percent were in favor. The latest poll also found 60 percent of Americans say Trump doesn't uphold adequate standards for ethics in government." The Washington Post's report is here. (Also linked yesterday.)

Washington Post Editors: "PRESIDENT TRUMP is attempting to rewrite the norms of presidential behavior in two fundamental ways in the Ukraine affair. He is claiming the right to directly seek the assistance of foreign governments in pursuing compromising information about his political opponents, even in the absence of any legitimate U.S. investigation. He is also asserting the power to block congressional oversight by prohibiting administration officials from testifying about their official activities, even in private. These are gross abuses of Mr. Trump's oath of office. If they are allowed to stand, they will open the way for more offenses in the coming year -- including more appeals for foreign intervention in the 2020 election -- and they will establish new baselines for future presidents. So congressional Republicans, as well as Democrats, have reason to act forcefully to check Mr. Trump. So far, they are not stepping up to their responsibility." ~~~

~~~ Onion: "Opting to take more of a wait-and-see approach instead of rushing to pass judgment, Republican lawmakers reportedly looked on in silence Tuesday as President Trump worked his way through each of their families and, one by one, strangled all their loved ones to death."

Alex Ward of Vox: "The Republican-led Senate Intelligence Committee just released a report that states the obvious, but in these times is quite damning for ... Donald Trump: Russia directed a disinformation campaign during the 2016 election to hurt Hillary Clinton and favor Trump. The committee has spent three years conducting a bipartisan investigation into the extent of the Kremlin's interference during the last presidential cycle. It released the first of its findings in July, showing that Moscow-linked hackers likely tried to access election systems in all 50 states. On Tuesday, the Senate panel released its second set of conclusions focused on Russia's use of social media during the last campaign season.... 'The Committee found that the IRA sought to influence the 2016 US presidential election by harming Hillary Clinton's chances of success and supporting Donald Trump at the direction of the Kremlin,' the report reads using an acronym for the Internet Research Agency, the name for the group of the Russian hackers.... 'By far, race and related issues were the preferred target of the information warfare campaign designed to divide the country in 2016,' the committee wrote.... 'Russia is waging an information warfare campaign against the US that didn't start and didn't end with the 2016 election,' Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), the committee chair, said in a statement concurrent with the report's release. 'Their goal is broader: to sow societal discord and erode public confidence in the machinery of government.'" The report is here.

Kevin Hall of McClatchy News: "A talking point used by some leading Republicans to discredit Special Counsel Robert Mueller's Russia probe has been labeled a conspiracy theory by Justice Department prosecutors. Amid Mueller’s lengthy and controversial probe into Russian meddling in the 2016 U.S. elections, vocal GOP leaders such as Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., and Rep. Mark Meadows, R-NC, [and Donald Trump] pushed an alternative narrative. The Obama administration, then-Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and the Clinton Foundation might have conspired with Russia, they argued, giving the foreign nation a stake in U.S. uranium production and the Clintons a financial windfall. It became known as the Uranium One conspiracy...." DOJ's opinion that Uranium One is a conspiracy theory appeared in jury instructions in a Maryland case being prosecuted by Robert Hur, a former deputy to Rod Rosenstein. ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Hur won't win any points with his boss AG Bill Barr. Matt Zapotosky, et al., of the Washington Post (Oct. 6): "Barr had opined to a New York Times reporter in 2017 that the basis for investigating alleged wrongdoing by the Clinton Foundation, as well as the controversial sale of a uranium company to Russia while Hillary Clinton was secretary of state, was stronger than the basis for launching the Russia investigation. 'I have long believed that the predicate for investigating the uranium deal, as well as the [Clinton] Foundation, is far stronger than any basis for investigating so-called "collusion,"' Barr wrote. Matthew Miller, a Justice Department spokesman when Eric H. Holder Jr. was attorney general, said that when he first saw Barr’s comment, 'I thought, this is someone who's had his brain warped by a couple decades of Fox News, and that's not the type of person that should be leading the Justice Department.'"

Here's Something that Is "Perfect." AP: "Donald Trump on Tuesday awarded one of the nation's highest civilian honors to Edwin Meese, best known for serving as President Ronald Reagan's attorney general. Meese, who received the Presidential Medal of Freedom, had a longstanding connection to Reagan that included serving as his chief of staff when Reagan was California's governor. After Reagan became president, Meese served as his chief policy adviser before going on to serve as the nation's 75th attorney general.... Meese resigned as attorney general in August 1988 after becoming ensnared in a probe of Wedtech Corp., a New York defense contractor. An independent prosecutor began looking at Meese's record of assistance to Wedtech. A 14-month corruption investigation ended in a decision not to prosecute Meese, but a report by the Justice Department's Office of Professional Responsibility said Meese had violated ethical standards." ~~~

~~~ Steve Benen of MSNBC: "During his Senate confirmation process, Meese was investigated by a court appointed independent counsel, which examined a variety of corruption allegations. The investigation culminated in a report that did not include criminal charges, but which nevertheless rebuked Meese for ethical lapses. He was confirmed anyway. During his tenure as Reagan's attorney general, Meese was caught up in the Iran-Contra scandal, during which he told Reagan that presidential powers are inherently broad enough to circumvent legal limits: so long as the president was acting with national security interests in mind, Meese argued, laws passed by Congress could be overlooked. In fact, as far as Meese was concerned, the White House didn&'t even have to tell Congress when the president was ignoring federal laws. (What's more, this was not only the scandal of his tenure as A.G.)" Mrs. McC: As the AP reports (linked above) Meese resigned over yet another scandal in which another independent counsel criticized his ethics. "Prior to his resignation, several top Justice Department officials resigned in protest of what they and others viewed as improper acts by the Attorney General."

Helen Regan of CNN: "Turkey's military is set to cross into northern Syria 'shortly,' the Turkish communications director said, as part of an impending offensive to move US-backed Kurdish forces away from its border. 'Turkish military, together with the Free Syrian Army, will cross the Turkish-Syrian border shortly,' Fahrettin Altun, the Turkish government communications director tweeted from a verified account in the early hours of Wednesday morning from Istanbul. Altun added that the Kurdish People's Protection Units, also known as the YPG, had two options: 'They can defect or we will have stop them from disrupting our counter-ISIS efforts.'" ~~~

~~~ Missy Ryan & Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "The U.S. military has no plans to intervene if Syrian Kurdish forces abandon a constellation of Islamic State prisons in Syria to confront a possible Turkish invasion, officials said Tuesday. Kurdish officials said that guards were still in place at the more than 20 prisons and camps under their control but were prepared to move, raising the possibility that about 11,000 militants and their families could escape. U.S. officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity..., said the Pentagon did not have enough forces to oversee the prisons if those facilities were left unguarded, nor a mandate to do so. The Trump administration has said the responsibility for the militants detained by the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), the main U.S. partner against the Islamic State in Syria, would fall to the Turkish government if it goes ahead with the incursion." Mrs. McC: Gee, I wonder if the ISIS prisoners will escape & return to their old jobs. ~~~

~~~ Joseph Hincks of Time: "... Donald Trump's ... handing Turkey responsibility for thousands of ISIS prisoners has also rung alarm bells among former top officials in Ankara. Shortly after Trump spoke on the phone with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday, the White House issued a statement saying Turkey would soon be moving ahead with its 'long-planned operation in Northern Syria' and that U.S. forces would 'no longer be in the immediate area.' The statement added that Turkey would now 'be responsible for all ISIS fighters in the area captured over the past two years.'... Former U.S. special envoy to the global coalition to defeat ISIS Brett McGurk..., who resigned shortly after Trump announced U.S. troops would pull out of Syria late December, said that Turkey does not have the intent, desire, nor the capacity to manage detainees the SDF holds at al Hol camp, which Pentagon officials warn is the 'nucleus for a resurgent ISIS.'" ~~~

~~~ Quint Forgey of Politico: "... Donald Trump on Tuesday promoted Turkey's diplomatic and economic ties to the U.S. amid withering bipartisan criticism for his decision to allow the Middle Eastern nation to invade northern Syria -- endangering the Kurdish fighters who helped the American military quash ISIS forces in the region. 'So many people conveniently forget that Turkey is a big trading partner of the United States, in fact they make the structural steel frame for our F-35 Fighter Jet,' the president wrote on Twitter.... Trump also noted that Turkey 'is an important member in good standing' of the international NATO military alliance, and revealed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be 'coming to the U.S. as my guest' on Nov. 13.... The presiden insisted Tuesday that America's support for its Kurdish allies would continue as U.S. troops withdraw from Syria, and again cautioned Turkey against instigating conflict in the region. 'We may be in the process of leaving Syria, but in no way have we Abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters. Likewise our relationship with Turkey, a NATO and Trading partner, has been very good,' Trump tweeted." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ ** William Saletan of Slate: "The troop withdrawal looks like a distraction, but it isn't. Trump is colluding with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, just as he has colluded with other authoritarians against the United States. The timeline of their relationship tells a story of disloyalty to America and its allies." ~~~

~~~ Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned on Tuesday that Turkey would face 'sanctions from hell' if it moves its military into northern Syria, in the wake of President Trump's decision to draw back U.S. troops. 'If Turkey moves into northern Syria, sanctions from hell -- by Congress -- will follow. Wide, deep, and devastating sanctions,' Graham tweeted. Turkish officials told Reuters on Tuesday that their military on Monday night bombed the Syria-Iraq border to prevent the Kurds from using the transit route to fortify their positions in the area. A security official said the intention was to cut off the road 'before the operation in Syria.'... Graham said ... Monday that he is working on sanctions legislation with Sen. >Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.). "

Presidential Race 2020

Ian Millhiser of Vox: "Sen. Elizabeth Warren now holds a slight lead in national polls of the 2020 Democratic primary, according to the polling aggregation site RealClearPolitics* -- the first time that she, not former Vice President Joe Biden, has led the race." *Mrs. McC: See link to story on RealClearPolitics below. Hey, I deleted the link to the RealClearPolitics average in Millhiser's post.

Sydney Ember & Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Senator Bernie Sanders, in a striking concession for a leading presidential candidate, said on Tuesday that he planned to slow down his pace on the campaign trail after suffering a heart attack a week ago, and acknowledged that voters would likely consider his health when deciding whether to support him. 'I think we're going to change the nature of the campaign a bit,' Mr. Sanders told reporters after a visit with a local cardiologist. 'Make sure that I have the strength to do what I have to do.' Mr. Sanders's remarks stood in sharp contrast with comments in recent days from his campaign advisers, who have insisted that the Vermont senator was neither changing course nor easing his trademark intensity as a result of the heart attack."

Deadbeat Donald. Anita Kumar & Quint Forgey of Politico: "Donald Trump has raised record amounts of money as a presidential candidate. But he's still left a slew of unpaid bills in his wake. In city after city, across the nation, Trump has failed to pay local officials who provide thousands of dollars' worth of security assistance to the president's campaign during his Make America Great Again rallies. In total, at least 10 cities have complained that the campaign has not reimbursed them for services provided by local police and fire departments, totaling more than $840,000, according to a study by the Center for Public Integrity in June. Minneapolis may find itself next on the list after the president picked a fight with the city's mayor on Tuesday. Trump accused Mayor Jacob Frey of overcharging the arena in downtown Minneapolis for services during Trump’s rally, scheduled for Thursday night, alleging that the mayor doesn't want the president to speak in the overwhelmingly Democratic city."

Senate Race 2020. John Frank of the Colorado Sun: "John Hickenlooper raised more than $2.1 million for his U.S. Senate campaign in less than six weeks, a record haul in Colorado that affirms his Democratic front-runner status in a top-tier race. The cash total positions the former two-term governor as the top fundraiser in his party primary but it falls short of Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, who will report raising $2.45 million for his reelection bid in the three-month period that ended in June." (Also linked yesterday.)

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Kevin Poulsen & Maxwell Tani of the Daily Beast: “RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image -- while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin. The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears.... Called 'Conservative Country,' the Facebook page was founded in 2014 and now boasts nearly 800,000 followers for its mix of Donald Trump hagiography and ultra-conservative memes. One recent post showed a man training two assault rifles at a closed door with the caption 'Just sitting here waiting on Beto.' Others wink at right-wing conspiracy theories about Barack Obama's 'ties to Islam' or the Clintons having their enemies killed, or portray Muslim members of Congress as terrorist infiltrators. The page is effusive with praise for Vladimir Putin, and one post portrays Russia as the last bastion of freedom in Europe." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: I occasionally link to RealClearPolitics stories & stats, especially around election times. I plan not to do that anymore.

Beyond the Beltway

Alabama. WSFA Alabama: "Montgomery County Probate Judge Steven Reed has defeated David Woods and will become Montgomery's next mayor. He makes history as the city's first black mayor. With 98 percent of precincts reporting, Reed had 67 percent of the votes. A total of 48,979 ballots were cast in Tuesday's election."

News Lede

CNN: "The 2019 Nobel Prize in Chemistry has been awarded to John B. Goodenough, M. Stanley Whittingham, and Akira Yoshino for their research in improving battery technology.The trio will share the prize for their work on 'the development of lithium ion batteries,' according to the Nobel committee.

The Commentariat -- October 8, 2019

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Ken Vogel & others at the New York Times get around to looking at Rick Perry's role in the Ukraine scandal: "Mr. Perry's role in the diplomacy between the countries highlights the degree to which Mr. Trump entrusted his Ukraine policy to an ad hoc coalition of loyalists inside and outside the government, especially after the recall of the ambassador to Ukraine amid questions among Mr. Trump's supporters about her loyalty to the president. It also reveals the extent to which Ukrainian politics and national security revolve around energy supplies. Mr. Perry's efforts, while broadly consistent with American national security and energy objectives, intersected with those of the figures involved in the pressure campaign." Mrs. McC: The AP & Politico stories I linked last week seemed more useful. The only news here seems to be that when Perry suggested names to add to Naftogaz's board, he was encouraging Naftogaz to consider "removing from the supervisory board a former Obama administration official named Amos J. Hochstein. Mr. Hochstein had worked with Mr. Biden on his Ukraine efforts as vice president." But the NYT reporters also let Perry off the hook by asserting that "the Ukrainian government had requested recommendations from Mr. Perry for Americans who could advise Naftogaz and the government...."

Jeremy Herb, et al., of CNN: "House Intelligence Chairman Adam Schiff on Tuesday called the State Department's blocking testimony of a key witness 'strong evidence of obstruction' of Democrats' impeachment investigation, and the move is prompting House Democrats to issue a subpoena for the testimony in response." ~~~

~~~ Cristina Marcos of the Hill: "The chairmen of the three House committees leading Democrats' impeachment inquiry said Tuesday that they will issue a subpoena to ... Gordon Sondland, the ambassador to the European Union..., a key official that the State Department blocked from testifying.... House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) and Oversight Committee Chairman Elijah Cummings (D-Md.) said they would subsequently move to subpoena Sondland later Tuesday for testimony and documents." ~~~

~~~ Allan Smith & Geoff Bennett of NBC News: Ambassador Gordon Sondland's attorney Robert Luskin said "that Sondland 'is profoundly disappointed that he will not be able to testify today.' Luskin noted that Sondland traveled to Washington from Brussels 'in order to prepare for his testimony and to be available to answer the Committee's questions. Arrangements had already been made with Joint Committee staff regarding the logistics of his testimony,' Lusin said.... Luskin said the ambassador 'hopes' the State Department's qualms that 'precludes his testimony will be resolved promptly.'... Speaking with reporters Tuesday, House Intelligence Committee Chairman Adam Schiff, D-Calif., lamented that 'not only is the Congress being deprived of' Sondland's testimony, 'but we are also aware the ambassador has text messages or emails on a personal device which have been provided to the State Department.'... He called the messages 'deeply relevant to this investigation and the impeachment inquiry' and said Democrats would consider the failure to obtain Sondland's documents and testimony as evidence of obstruction." See previous linked reports for context. ~~~

~~~ The Midnight Hide of Mike Pompeo. Michael Isikoff of Yahoo! News: "he State Department waited until 12:30 a.m. on Tuesday to tell U.S. Ambassador Gordon Sondland not to show up for his scheduled deposition with three House committees later that morning, the ambassador's lawyer told Yahoo News. Robert Luskin, Sondland's attorney, said he got the extraordinary middle-of-the-night directive in a phone call from a State Department official he declined to identify. The official offered no explanation of the grounds on which the State Department was blocking Sondland's appearance at the last minute."

Jordain Carney of the Hill: "Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) said on Tuesday that he will invite President Trump's personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani to testify before the Senate Judiciary Committee about Ukraine.... Graham said that his decision came after hearing from Giuliani on 'numerous occasions disturbing allegations ... about corruption in Ukraine and the many improprieties surrounding the firing of former Prosecutor General Viktor Shokin.... Given the House of Representatives' behavior, it is time for the Senate to inquire about corruption and other improprieties involving Ukraine,' he added.... The hearing would likely give Giuliani a forum to air his claims that the former vice president pushed a former top prosecutor in Ukraine to be fired to help his son. There's been no evidence of wrongdoing by the former vice president. It would also give three 2020 Democratic presidential candidates -- Sens. Cory Booker (N.J.), Kamala Harris (Calif.) and Amy Klobuchar (Minn.) -- a high-profile stage to question Giuliani, and knock Trump. Harris quickly pounced on Graham's announcement, adding in a tweet: 'Good. I have questions.' The decision to invite Giuliani marks a reversal for Graham, who had previously indicated that he wanted 'all things Ukraine' investigated but didn't think the Senate should be the body leading the probe."

Samantha Grasso of Splinter: "Amid ... Donald Trump's insistence that this should all go away, most Americans support the impeachment inquiry into Trump, and almost half of supporters say they also support removing the president from office, according to a new Washington Post-Schar School poll. More specifically, 58 percent of Americans thinks that Congress should have launched an impeachment inquiry into Trump's behavior. Meanwhile, 49 percent of Americans go the extra mile, saying they support the impeachment inquiry and removing Trump from office.... This is a marked uptick from the last time the poll was taken, when 59 percent said they didn't support impeachment while just 37 percent were in favor. The latest poll also found 60 percent of Americans say Trump doesn't uphold adequate standards for ethics in government." The Washington Post's report is here.

Quint Forgey of Politico: "... Donald Trump on Tuesday promoted Turkey's diplomatic and economic ties to the U.S. amid withering bipartisan criticism for his decision to allow the Middle Eastern nation to invade northern Syria -- endangering the Kurdish fighters who helped the American military quash ISIS forces in the region. 'So many people conveniently forget that Turkey is a big trading partner of the United States, in fact they make the structural steel frame for our F-35 Fighter Jet,' the president wrote on Twitter.... Trump also noted that Turkey 'is an important member in good standing' of the international NATO military alliance, and revealed that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan would be 'coming to the U.S. as my guest' on Nov. 13.... The president insisted Tuesday that America's support for its Kurdish allies would continue as U.S. troops withdraw from Syria, and again cautioned Turkey against instigating conflict in the region. 'We may be in the process of leaving Syria, but in no way have we Abandoned the Kurds, who are special people and wonderful fighters. Likewise our relationship with Turkey, a NATO and Trading partner, has been very good,' Trump tweeted."

Senate Race. John Frank of the Colorado Sun: "John Hickenlooper raised more than $2.1 million for his U.S. Senate campaign in less than six weeks, a record haul in Colorado that affirms his Democratic front-runner status in a top-tier race. The cash total positions the former two-term governor as the top fundraiser in his party primary but it falls short of Republican U.S. Sen. Cory Gardner, who will report raising $2.45 million for his reelection bid in the three-month period that ended in June."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Kevin Poulsen & Maxwell Tani of the Daily Beast: "RealClearPolitics has carefully cultivated a non-partisan image -- while in the shadows its parent company pushes images of killer Clintons and a freedom-loving Kremlin. The company behind the non-partisan news site RealClearPolitics has been secretly running a Facebook page filled with far-right memes and Islamophobic smears.... Called 'Conservative Country,' the Facebook page was founded in 2014 and now boasts nearly 800,000 followers for its mix of Donald Trump hagiography and ultra-conservative memes. One recent post showed a man training two assault rifles at a closed door with the caption 'Just sitting here waiting on Beto.' Others wink at right-wing conspiracy theories about Barack Obama's 'ties to Islam' or the Clintons having their enemies killed, or portray Muslim members of Congress as terrorist infiltrators. The page is effusive with praise for Vladimir Putin, and one post portrays Russia as the last bastion of freedom in Europe." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: I occasionally link to RealClearPolitics stories & stats, especially around election times. I plan not to do that anymore.

~~~~~~~~~~

Adam Schiff is speaking now (at 9:30 am ET). Schiff said Sondland also had texts & e-mails on a personal device that the State Department was withholding from Congress. He said blocking Sondland could end up as part of an Article of Impeachment.

BREAKING. Michael Schmidt & Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "The Trump administration directed a top American diplomat involved in its pressure campaign on Ukraine not to appear Tuesday morning for a scheduled interview in the House's impeachment inquiry. The decision to block Gordon D. Sondland, the United States ambassador to the European Union, from speaking with investigators for three House committees is certain to provoke an immediate conflict with potentially profound consequences for the White House and President Trump. House Democrats have repeatedly warned that if the administration tries to interfere with their investigation, it will be construed as obstruction, a charge they see as potentially worthy of impeachment.... Robert Luskin, Mr. Sondland's lawyer, said in a statement that as a State Department employee, his client had no choice but to comply with the administration's direction. He said Mr. Sondland had been prepared and happy to testify, and would do so in the future if allowed.... Mr. Sondland interacted directly with Mr. Trump, speaking with the president several times around key moments that House Democrats are now investigating, including before and after Mr. Trump's July call with the new Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelensky." ~~~

     ~~~ Update. New Lede: "The White House all but declared war on the House impeachment inquiry on Tuesday, intervening for the first time to block the testimony of a key witness as President Trump signaled his administration would try to starve investigators of more witnesses and documents." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: This absolutely will go into an Article of Impeachment. CNN is reporting that "the White House" was talking about this late into the night last night before they ordered Sondland not to appear. Pompeo is right in the middle of this. According to CNN, the White House is not even asserting executive privilege, White House & State are just saying "no." Sondland had intended to testify & flew into D.C. to do so.

Faced with GOP Rebellion, Trump Tries to Backpedal Rogue Syria Decision. Peter Baker & Lara Jakes of the New York Times: "President Trump threw Middle East policy into turmoil on Monday with a series of conflicting signals after his vow to withdraw American forces from the region touched off an uprising among congressional Republicans and protests by America's allies. Defending his decision to clear the way for a Turkish military operation against America's Kurdish allies in northern Syria, announced in a White House statement on Sunday night, Mr. Trump said it was 'time for us to get out' and let others 'figure the situation out.' But his move touched off a broad rebuke by Republicans ... in some of the sharpest language they have leveled against a Trump foreign policy decision. And in response, the president pivoted sharply and said he would restrain Turkey.... A Defense Department official said the president's threat to destroy the Turkish economy should make clear that Mr. Trump had not approved a Turkish attack on the Kurds.... But Republicans were not sure. Even after Mr. Trump recalibrated his message, Senator Mitch McConnell ... warned against 'a precipitous withdrawal' that would benefit Russia, Iran, President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and the Islamic State." ...

     ... The reporters go on to describe the phone call between Trump & Erdogan: "Mr. Trump seemed to be responding instinctively to an unexpected comment by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey near the end of a telephone call on Sunday that otherwise focused on trade and defense assistance. Mr. Erdogan, who has long threatened to send troops over the border against Kurdish fighters allied with the United States, told Mr. Trump that he was finally moving forward. Mr. Trump told Mr. Erdogan that he did not support an incursion, according to aides. But ... Mr. Trump got off the call and promptly issued a late-night statement that he would pull out about 50 American special operations troops near the border who have served as a trip wire deterring Turkey from sending forces into Syria." (The report is a major revision of a story linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Dave Lawler of Axios: "The White House is insisting that President Trump did not offer Turkey a 'green light' to slaughter U.S.-backed Kurdish forces in northern Syria last night and that the U.S. wouldn't bear responsibility for any Islamic State resurgence in the area.... There was an information vacuum for much of the day beyond the tweets in which Trump reiterated his desire to leave Syria, claimed the Kurds had been 'paid massive amounts' to fight ISIS and warned he would 'destroy and obliterate' Turkey's economy if it did anything he found 'off limits.'... A senior administration official ... said repeatedly that Trump was not endorsing Erdoğan's plan, but wouldn't say whether he'd warned him not to move ahead." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Let us remind "the White House" that Trump tweeted Monday morning, "... it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home. WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out, and what they want to do with the captured ISIS fighters in their "neighborhood.'"

~~~ "Chaos in Syria, Washington." Carol Lee & Courtney Kube of NBC News: "At 3 a.m. local time, the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, Gen. Mazloum Kobane..., received a phone call from a senior U.S official telling him to get on a video teleconference with an American military commander who informed him ... Donald Trump had ordered U.S. troops to withdraw.... Confusion ensued in Syria and Washington in the hours after Trump agreed during a phone call with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to move U.S. troops out of northeastern Syria to clear the way for a Turkish military operation in the area.... The White House's announcement of the decision late Sunday night blindsided not just America's Kurdish partners in the fight against the Islamic State militant group, or ISIS, in Syria, but almost everyone -- senior officials at the Pentagon, the State Department and the White House, lawmakers on Capitol Hill, and U.S. allies in Europe and the Middle East.... [A statement issued by White House press secretary Stephanie Grisham] ... was the first time many in the administration, Congress and capitals across the world learned of the president's decision.... Trump, meanwhile seemed to back away from his initial statement.... 'Even Trump is starting to realize that maybe he didn't handle this too well, and is maybe trying to walk it back,' [a senior State Department] official said. 'I think you're going to see some backpedaling.'" ~~~

~~~ "Nobody Saw It Coming." Wesley Morgan of Politico: "The White House announcement upended military and State Department plans ... and it bucked views by top officials that the Turks' threat of an incursion against the Kurds was a bluff, according to current and former defense officials.... 'Everyone was absolutely flabbergasted by this. I tell you that as a fact,' retired Adm. James Stavridis said Monday on MSNBC, describing what he saw as the view from the Pentagon. 'Nobody saw it coming, and that is a real problem when you're trying to conduct not only foreign policy ... but also military operations. That kind of whipsawing effect is extremely detrimental, not only in this tactical situation, but strategically as our planners try and prepare in other theaters, from North Korea to Afghanistan.'... A person familiar with the U.S. government's policy deliberations on the issue said Trump is operating against the advice of his national security leaders -- noting that Sunday night's announcement came just three days after Defense Secretary Mark Esper spoke by phone with Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar. 'POTUS went rogue,' the person said. 'It's not too surprising for those of us who've been following him, but it was a surprise and went against what Esper was talking to Akar about.'" ~~~

~~~ James LaPorta of Newsweek: "Donald Trump got 'rolled' by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a National Security Council source with direct knowledge of the discussions told Newsweek.... 'President Trump was definitely out-negotiated and only endorsed the troop withdraw to make it look like we are getting something -- but we are not getting something,' the National Security Council source told Newsweek. 'The U.S. national security has entered a state of increased danger for decades to come because the president has no spine and that's the bottom line.'... According to the NSC official, who had first-hand knowledge of the phone call, Trump did not endorse any Turkish military operation against Kurdish Forces, but also did not threaten economic sanctions during the phone call if Turkey decided to undertake offensive operations." ~~~

~~~ Edmund DeMarche, et al., of Fox "News": "The White House announced late Sunday that Turkey will soon move forward with a planned military operation in northeast Syria, as U.S. troops who have been deployed and operating with Kurdish-led forces in the area began pulling back from their positions. The decision sent shockwaves through the region and Washington, with U.S. officials telling Fox News that top Pentagon officials were 'completely blindsided' and 'shocked' by the order to pull back hundreds of U.S. troops, a move that effectively green-lights the Turkey operation." Emphasis added. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I've done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over... ....the captured ISIS fighters and families. The U.S. has done far more than anyone could have ever expected, including the capture of 100% of the ISIS Caliphate. It is time now for others in the region, some of great wealth, to protect their own territory. THE USA IS GREAT! -- Donald Trump, in two tweets this morning (emphasis added in bold; the caps emphases are all Trump's) ~~~

~~~ James Hohmann of the Washington Post: "National security experts warn that Trump abandoning the Kurds in this manner will have a chilling effect not just in the region but around the world, further eroding American credibility against the backdrop of a rising China and a revanchist Russia. 'Well, at least the Trump Administration is consistent. We are about screwing our allies, partners and friends,' said John Sipher, who served 28 years in the Central Intelligence Agency's clandestine service'.... 'Don't trust America, even if you shed blood on their behalf. If you want favors, build a Trump tower.' Other critics of Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria were also quick to note that there is a Trump Tower complex in Istanbul." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Abandoning [the Kurds] to the Turks who will treat them mercilessly is just .... horrifying. Trump just shrugged and said 'fine' because he doesn't understand any of it and neither does he care. He has a hotel in Istanbul though.... When he has to choose he always backs the people who benefit him personally. -- digby

Rebecca Klar of the Hill: "President Trump's former ISIS envoy on Monday slammed the decision to pull U.S. troops out of northern Syria.... 'Donald Trump is not a Commander-in-Chief. He makes impulsive decisions with no knowledge or deliberation,' Brett McGurk tweeted. 'He sends military personnel into harm's way with no backing. He blusters and then leaves our allies exposed when adversaries call his bluff or he confronts a hard phone call.'... McGurk also said Trump made a 'similarly impulsive decision' when he served in the administration, which led to his resignation [Mrs. McC: at the same time & for the same reason Defense Secretary Jim Mattis resigned]. 'Tonight [Sunday] is a sad replay but seems even worse as US officials had since convinced the SDF that we planned to stay,' he said. 'There's a similar defect at the core of US foreign policies across the board: maximalist objectives for a minimalist president combined with no process to assess facts, develop options, or prepare contingencies. Our personnel are left exposed at the slightest moment of friction,' he added. 'Bottom line: Trump tonight after one call with a foreign leader provided a gift to Russia, Iran, and ISIS.'" ~~~

     ~~~ McGurk's Twitter account is here. (At the top of McGurk's feed are photos of him with soldiers, with Jim Mattis, with Barack Obama & with George W. Bush. Not a single shot with Cadet Bonespurs.)

Calling Senator Mitt. Gabriel Sherman of Vanity Fair: "According to people close to Romney, he's firmly decided against primarying Trump [though supporters have encouraged him to do so], an enterprise he believes to be a sure loser given Trump's enduring GOP support.... Instead, a Romney adviser told me, Romney believes he has more potential power as a senator who will decide Trump's fate in an impeachment trial. 'He could have tremendous influence in the impeachment process as the lone voice of conscience in the Republican caucus,' the adviser said. In recent days, Romney has been reaching out privately to key players in the Republican resistance, according to a person briefed on the conversations. 'Romney is the one guy who could bring along Susan Collins, Cory Gardner, Ben Sasse. Romney is the pressure point in the impeachment process. That's why the things he's saying are freaking Republicans out.... 'The Syria decision is a much bigger deal [the the Ukraine scandal],' another former West Wing official said. 'No one on the inside can hold Trump accountable. The Senate Republicans are the only check on power right now.'"

Democrats Aim to Protect Whistleblower from Devin Nunes, et al. Rachel Bade, et al., of the Washington Post: "House Democrats are weighing extraordinary steps to secure testimony from a whistleblower whose complaint prompted their impeachment inquiry, masking his identity to prevent President Trump's congressional allies from exposing the individual, according to three officials familiar with the deliberations. The steps under consideration include having the whistleblower testify from a remote location and obscuring the individual's appearance and voice, these officials said. The efforts reflect Democrats' deepening distrust of their GOP colleagues, whom they see as fully invested in defending a president who has attacked the whistleblower's credibility and demanded absolute loyalty from Republicans." ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: You read that right. In order to keep Republicans from outting the identity of a whistleblower who is protected by law (that would be a law Congress itself passed, of course), Democrats must go to extraordinary lengths. It isn't just the President* who is lawless, so are his Congressional vassals.

Cristina Marcos of the Hill: "House Democrats on Monday subpoenaed the heads of the Defense Department and Office of Management and Budget for documents related to the Trump administration's decision to withhold financial aid to Ukraine while the president pushed the allied nation for an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. In letters to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) acting director Russell Vought, the three committee chairmen leading the House's impeachment inquiry asked for the documents to be provided by Oct. 15." (Also linked yesterday.)

Washington Post liveblog at 9 am ET: "George Kent, the deputy assistant secretary of state in the European and Eurasian Bureau, did not appear for a deposition before three House committees scheduled for Monday morning. 'No, Democrats originally scheduled him for deposition today, but his appearance has not yet been worked out or confirmed,' said a person familiar with the planned deposition...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Karen DeYoung, et al., of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State Mike Pompeo returned Monday morning from a European trip to a State Department workforce that is increasingly demoralized and resentful under his leadership, amid a growing belief that he has subordinated its mission and abandoned colleagues in the service of President Trump's political aims. The 'prevailing mood is low and getting lower, if it can,' said Thomas R. Pickering, a diplomatic dean who served in high-ranking department positions.... State Department officials strongly supported $141 million in department funds that Congress appropriated this year for Ukraine -- in addition to $250 million in aid from the Defense Department. But there is no indication that Pompeo objected when Trump withheld all of the assistance while ... Rudolph W. Giuliani — and the president himself -- pressed the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to investigate Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden and his son. Most worrisome to the department is concern that Pompeo did not intervene to protect U.S. diplomats either enlisted by Giuliani to assist his efforts or punished for being insufficiently committed to the cause.... 'All of us felt like [Marie Yovanovitch] was incredibly shabbily treated,' said a senior Western diplomat. 'My understanding is that Pompeo was quite well briefed and took a passive role when the removal of Masha [Marie] Yovanovitch happened. He couldn't have been ignorant of the subject matter or the interests at play.'"

Darrel Rowland of the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch: "While he still says impeachment is too extreme, Sen. Rob Portman readily acknowledged Monday that ... Donald Trump should not have asked Ukraine or China for help investigating former Vice President Joe Biden. And the Ohio Republican also undercut key factual elements of Trump's explanation of his actions.... 'The president should not have raised the Biden issue on that call, period. It's not appropriate for a president to engage a foreign government in an investigation of a political opponent,' Portman said.... Portman did express openness to an investigation of Trump by a bipartisan group such as the Senate Intelligence Committee. 'Everything should be looked at,' he said, including accusations that the FBI was politicized in 2016 to go after Trump."

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Kurt Volker, the president's former special envoy to Ukraine, has stepped down from yet another post, his executive directorship of the McCain Institute, amid the fallout from House Democrats' impeachment inquiry. Volker resigned from his role at the State Department a little over a week ago, and his resignation as the head of the D.C.-based think tank came days after he appeared as Democrats' first witness in their widening impeachment probe.... In a statement released Monday announcing his departure, Volker specifically referenced the growing Ukraine scandal and the ensuing media frenzy.... Cindy McCain, [who directs the center,] in a statement released in tandem with Volker's, thanked the career diplomat for his service...." (Also linked yesterday.)

The Grift. Jonathan Chait: "While Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani was leaning on the government in Kiev, he was simultaneously running a side hustle trying to extort the Ukrainians into throwing some energy business at his clients.... While he was representing Trump as a lawyer, Giuliani was being paid by two men ... Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman ... who were seeking business with Ukraine's government. Giuliani was wearing two hats: simultaneously representing the president of the United States and his paid clients. The conflict of interest between the two roles is overt. Giuliani's clients could use his name to leverage Ukraine to give them business.... As BuzzFeed reported in July, Parnas and Fruman held at least four meetings with Ukrainian prosecutors to urge investigations of Trump's enemies, and met with both President Trump and Donald Trump Jr.... And at the same time they were doing this, Parnas and Fruman were also pushing Ukraine to throw some natural-gas import business their way. Their efforts to intertwine their business agenda with the Trump political agenda were so successful that Energy Secretary Rick Perry brought up their interests in his negotiations with Ukraine.... The fact that Trump has been casting this campaign as an effort to root out 'corruption' while Rudy's boys were asking for a taste of the action just makes the whole joke funnier." See related stories linked below. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Chait casts Trump as using Parnas & Fruman Trump "as freelance operators to extort Ukraine because the normal foreign-policy apparatus is not set up to shake down foreign countries for dirt on the president's enemies." But I suspect the money Trump's & Perry's big donor friends would garner from contracts & board positions wit Ukraine natural gas firms was just as important to Trump. ~~~

     ~~~ Also too, as Chait notes, "If it were not a sidecar to a historic scandal, the energy scam would itself constitute a large enough scandal to bring most presidencies to their knees." It's so Teapot Dome-y. As historian Robert Cherney noted, "Before the Watergate scandal, Teapot Dome was regarded as the 'greatest and most sensational scandal in the history of American politics.'" Teapot Dome, like UkraineGate, involved a Cabinet Secretary arranging secret non-competitive contracts (oil leases in Teapot Dome) to energy entrepreneurs in exchange for favors (the oil companies bribed the Secretary). One difference: the president back then wasn't privy to the scam. BUT, as a kicker, one consequence of TeaPot Dome was that "Congress subsequently passed legislation, enduring to this day, giving subpoena power to House and Senate for review of tax records of any US citizen without regard to elected or appointed position, nor subject to White House interference." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Kyle Balluck & Aris Folley of the Hill: President Trump late Sunday suggested that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was guilty of treason and should be 'immediately' impeached. 'Nancy Pelosi knew of all of the many Shifty Adam Schiff lies and massive frauds perpetrated upon Congress and the American people, in the form of a fraudulent speech knowingly delivered as a ruthless con, and the illegal meetings with a highly partisan "Whistleblower" & lawyer,' he tweeted. 'This makes Nervous Nancy every bit as guilty as Liddle’ Adam Schiff for High Crimes and Misdemeanors, and even Treason. I guess that means that they, along with all of those that evilly "Colluded" with them, must all be immediately Impeached!'... Members of Congress cannot be impeached...." Mrs. McC: Somebody should explain impeachment to Trump; despite its prominence in his life, he still doesn't get it. This is the second time Trump has urged somebody (he uses the passive voice) to impeach members of Congress; last week it was Mitt Romney for disagreeing with Trump's solicitation of China to "investigate" the Bidens. (Also linked yesterday.)

This court finds aspects of such a doctrine repugnant to the nation's governmental structure and constitutional values. -- U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero, on Trump's argument that he is above the law ~~~

~~~ David Fahrenthold & Anne Marimow of the Washington Post: "A federal judge on Monday dismissed President Trump's lawsuit seeking to block the Manhattan district attorney from obtaining the president's tax returns as part of an investigation into hush-money payments during the 2016 campaign. U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero rejected Trump's argument that the presidency makes him immune to any investigation by any prosecutor. In his 75-page ruling, Marrero called such a claim 'extraordinary' and wrote, 'This Court cannot endorse such a categorical and limitless assertion of presidential immunity from judicial process.' The order would allow District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. (D) to enforce a subpoena he sent to Trump's longtime accountants, Mazars USA.... But moments after the ruling Monday, Trump's private attorneys asked the New York-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit to intervene to put the case on hold. The appeals court responded soon after, issuing a temporary stay pending review by a three-judge panel of the court." Politico's story is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~

~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Neal Katyal, in an appearance on Lawrence O'Donnell's show, noted that the Second Circuit planned to review Judge Marrero's decision "expeditiously," which means they will probably hear arguments within several weeks. (He didn't estimate how long it might take the three-judge panel to publish a decision.) Katyal also said that the Supreme Court were unlikely to take the case if the Appeals Court upheld Marrero's decision because Trump's arguments were so "preposterous" that the Supremes wouldn't think hearing the case was worth their while. Katyal characterized the Trump lawyers' argument as "a creative writing exercise" in which they didn't bother to cite any precedents except King George III. Katyal noted that Americans had fought a revolution over royal rule though he suggested King Donald might not appreciate that.

NEW. Daniel Lippman of Politico: "... Donald Trump has compared White House leakers to spies and mused obliquely to other officials about executing them. He's attacked individual reporters by name. He rails frequently against press accounts of his administration, dismissing them as 'fake news.' But privately, the president is so obsessed with the leaks about him that he has frequently discussed whether to order polygraphs of White House staffers after major disclosures, according to four former White House officials.... Trump has talked about ordering polygraphs 'constantly' when anything major has leaked, according to a former White House official.... 'He wanted to polygraph every employee in the building to unearth who it was who spoke to the press,' said another former official, who noted that the president tended to be especially irate when he knew specific news accounts were true." Mrs. McC: Yes, but executing staffers is just Trump being Trump.

David Fahrenthold: "An anti-Muslim group that had been planning a gala at President Trump's Mar-a-Lago Club in Florida said Monday that the Trump Organization had abruptly canceled the event. The group, ACT for America, issued a statement saying Trump's company had 'caved to the Left's bullying tactics' in canceling its Nov. 7 dinner gala. After Florida newspapers reported on the planned gala last weekend, the event was condemned by groups including the Council on American-Islamic Relations.... ACT was founded in 2007. Its leaders, who claim to have more than 1 million members, have labeled Islam a 'cancer' and spread theories of a secret plot by Muslims, Democrats, communists and the media to destroy the country from within. They have sponsored lectures on how to monitor and oppose U.S. mosques.... The Trump Organization did not respond to requests for comment."

Emma Newberger of CNBC: "Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by ... Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen 'entirely' on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected. The bank said in a note that consumer prices are higher partly because Chinese exporters have not lowered their prices to better compete in the US market. Trump has repeatedly -- and inaccurately -- claimed that China will pay for tariffs imposed by the U.S." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Somos el Muro. Jorge Ramos in a New York Times op-ed: "'I'm using Mexico to protect our border.' Millions of Americans didn't even notice this ... remark made [Sept. 26] by President Trump. But Mexicans certainly did. They thought Mr. Trump's words were a blatant attack on their nation's sovereignty.... A salient feature of Mexico's current foreign policy is precisely [President Andrés Manuel López Obrador]'s reluctance to confront anyone outside of the country. In short, American officials say what they want, and Mexico -- almost always -- goes along with it. The relationship between the two nations is by no means an egalitarian one. In fact, it poses a threat to Mexico: Mr. Trump has previously warned that he would impose tariffs if Mexico didn't back his immigration agenda.... Mexico's president 'basically, has accepted all terms and conditions' set by the United States, Armando Santacruz, president of Mexico United Against Crime, told me in an interview. 'Yes, we are the wall. And [Mexico's] National Guard is now spending a lot if its resources keeping immigrants away.'... Mexico may not have paid for the president's wall, but the country has, in effect, become Mr. Trump's immigration police force. Mexico itself has become the wall."

Tanya Snyder, et al., of Politico: "In her first 14 months as Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao met with officials from Kentucky, which her husband Mitch McConnell represents in the Senate, vastly more often than those from any other state. In all, 25 percent of Chao's scheduled meetings with local officials [seeking DOT grants] of any state from January 2017 to March 2018 were with Kentuckians, who make up only about 1.3 percent of the U.S. population.... At least five of Chao's 18 meetings with local Kentuckians were requested in emails from McConnell staffers, who alerted Chao's staffers which of the officials were 'friends' or 'loyal supporters,' according to records obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.... The department has long maintained that it, and [Chao], have shown no favoritism to [Kentucky], even while local officials from other states have complained about having trouble getting to see her." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Travis Loller of the AP: "With a bandage above his left eye and a large, red welt below it, former President Jimmy Carter was greeted by a cheering crowd Monday morning as he prepared to help build a home with Habitat for Humanity in Nashville. Carter fell at home on Sunday, requiring 14 stiches, but he did not let his injuries keep him from participating in his 36th building project with the nonprofit Christian housing organization. He turned 95 last Tuesday, becoming the first U.S. president to reach that milestone." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

News Lede

Guardian: "Three scientists have been awarded the 2019 Nobel prize in physics for groundbreaking discoveries about the evolution of the Universe and the Earth's place within it. The Canadian scientist James Peebles has been awarded half of the 9m Swedish kronor (£740,000) prize for his theoretical discoveries about the evolution of the universe. A Swiss duo of astronomers, Michel Mayor and Didier Queloz, will share the other half of the prize for their discovery of the first planet beyond our solar system."

The Commentariat -- October 7, 2019

Afternoon Update:

Edmund DeMarche, et al., of Fox "News": "The White House announced late Sunday that Turkey will soon move forward with a planned military operation in northeast Syria, as U.S. troops who have been deployed and operating with Kurdish-led forces in the area began pulling back from their positions. The decision sent shockwaves through the region and Washington, with U.S. officials telling Fox News that top Pentagon officials were 'completely blindsided' and 'shocked' by the order to pull back hundreds of U.S. troops, a move that effectively green-lights the Turkey operation." Emphasis added. ~~~

As I have stated strongly before, and just to reiterate, if Turkey does anything that I, in my great and unmatched wisdom, consider to be off limits, I will totally destroy and obliterate the Economy of Turkey (I've done before!). They must, with Europe and others, watch over... ....the captured ISIS fighters and families. The U.S. has done far more than anyone could have ever expected, including the capture of 100% of the ISIS Caliphate. It is time now for others in the region, some of great wealth, to protect their own territory. THE USA IS GREAT! -- Donald Trump, in two tweets this morning (emphasis added in bold; the caps emphases are all Trump's) ~~~

~~~ Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Trump vowed on Monday to pull back from military involvement in the Middle East and leave it to others 'to figure the situation out,' even as one of his strongest supporters [Lindsey Graham] condemned him for abandoning allies and emboldening regional enemies. In a series of Twitter messages, the president defended his decision to clear the way for a Turkish military operation that would sweep away America's Kurdish allies near the Syrian border.... 'I held off this fight for almost 3 years, but it is time for us to get out of these ridiculous Endless Wars, many of them tribal, and bring our soldiers home,' Mr. Trump wrote. 'WE WILL FIGHT WHERE IT IS TO OUR BENEFIT, AND ONLY FIGHT TO WIN. Turkey, Europe, Syria, Iran, Iraq, Russia and the Kurds will now have to figure the situation out.'... 'If I didn't see Donald Trump's name on the tweet, I would have thought it was Obama's rationale for getting out of Iraq,' Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina ... said on Fox News.... The announcement set off a swift and bipartisan backlash from other lawmakers as well, with some of the president's closest allies on Capitol Hill taking to Twitter to denounce the decision, all while carefully avoiding the president's name." The AP story is here. And this Politico story covers remarks by some GOP critics. ~~~

~~~ James Hohmann of the Washington Post: "National security experts warn that Trump abandoning the Kurds in this manner will have a chilling effect not just in the region but around the world, further eroding American credibility against the backdrop of a rising China and a revanchist Russia. 'Well, at least the Trump Administration is consistent. We are about screwing our allies, partners and friends,' said John Sipher, who served 28 years in the Central Intelligence Agency's clandestine service'.... 'Don't trust America, even if you shed blood on their behalf. If you want favors, build a Trump tower.' Other critics of Trump's decision to withdraw from Syria were also quick to note that there is a Trump Tower complex in Istanbul."

David Fahrenthold & Anne Marimow of the Washington Post: "A federal judge on Monday dismissed President Trump's lawsuit seeking to block the Manhattan district attorney from obtaining the president's tax returns as part of an investigation into hush-money payments during the 2016 campaign. U.S. District Judge Victor Marrero rejected Trump's argument that the presidency makes him immune to any investigation by any prosecutor. In his 75-page ruling, Marrero called such a claim 'extraordinary' and wrote, 'This Court cannot endorse such a categorical and limitless assertion of presidential immunity from judicial process.' The order would allow District Attorney Cyrus Vance Jr. (D) to enforce a subpoena he sent to Trump's longtime accountants, Mazars USA.... But moments after the ruling Monday, Trump's private attorneys asked the New York-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit to intervene to put the case on hold. The appeals court responded soon after, issuing a temporary stay pending review by a three-judge panel of the court." Politico's story is here.

Cristina Marcos of the Hill: "House Democrats on Monday subpoenaed the heads of the Defense Department and Office of Management and Budget for documents related to the Trump administration's decision to withhold financial aid to Ukraine while the president pushed the allied nation for an investigation into former Vice President Joe Biden and his son, Hunter. In letters to Defense Secretary Mark Esper and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) acting director Russell Vought, the three committee chairmen leading the House's impeachment inquiry asked for the documents to be provided by Oct. 15."

Washington Post liveblog at 9 am ET: "George Kent, the deputy assistant secretary of state in the European and Eurasian Bureau, did not appear for a deposition before three House committees scheduled for Monday morning. 'No, Democrats originally scheduled him for deposition today, but his appearance has not yet been worked out or confirmed,' said a person familiar with the planned deposition...."

Caitlin Oprysko of Politico: "Kurt Volker, the president's former special envoy to Ukraine, has stepped down from yet another post, his executive directorship of the McCain Institute, amid the fallout from House Democrats' impeachment inquiry. Volker resigned from his role at the State Department a little over a week ago, and his resignation as the head of the D.C.-based think tank came days after he appeared as Democrats' first witness in their widening impeachment probe.... In a statement released Monday announcing his departure, Volker specifically referenced the growing Ukraine scandal and the ensuing media frenzy.... Cindy McCain, [who directs the center,] in a statement released in tandem with Volker's, thanked the career diplomat for his service...."

The Grift. Jonathan Chait: "While Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani was leaning on the government in Kiev, he was simultaneously running a side hustle trying to extort the Ukrainians [link fixed] into throwing some energy business at his clients.... While he was representing Trump as a lawyer, Giuliani was being paid by two men ... Lev Parnas and Igor Fruman ... who were seeking business with Ukraine's government. Giuliani was wearing two hats: simultaneously representing the president of the United States and his paid clients. The conflict of interest between the two roles is overt. Giuliani's clients could use his name to leverage Ukraine to give them business.... As BuzzFeed reported in July, Parnas and Fruman held at least four meetings with Ukrainian prosecutors to urge investigations of Trump's enemies, and met with both President Trump and Donald Trump Jr.... And at the same time they were doing this, Parnas and Fruman were also pushing Ukraine to throw some natural-gas import business their way. Their efforts to intertwine their business agenda with the Trump political agenda were so successful that Energy Secretary Rick Perry brought up their interests in his negotiations with Ukraine.... The fact that Trump has been casting this campaign as an effort to root out 'corruption' while Rudy's boys were asking for a taste of the action just makes the whole joke funnier." See related stories linked below. ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Chait casts Trump as using Parnas & Fruman Trump "as freelance operators to extort Ukraine because the normal foreign-policy apparatus is not set up to shake down foreign countries for dirt on the president's enemies." But I suspect the money Trump's & Perry's big donor friends would garner from contracts & board positions with Ukraine natural gas firms was just as important to Trump. ~~~

     ~~~ Also too, as Chait notes, "If it were not a sidecar to a historic scandal, the energy scam would itself constitute a large enough scandal to bring most presidencies to their knees." It's so Teapot Dome-y. As historian Robert Cherney noted, "Before the Watergate scandal, Teapot Dome was regarded as the 'greatest and most sensational scandal in the history of American politics.'" Teapot Dome, like UkraineGate, involved a Cabinet Secretary arranging secret non-competitive contracts (oil leases in Teapot Dome) to energy entrepreneurs in exchange for favors (the oil companies bribed the Secretary). One difference: the president back then wasn't privy to the scam. BUT, as a kicker, one consequence of TeaPot Dome was that "Congress subsequently passed legislation, enduring to this day, giving subpoena power to House and Senate for review of tax records of any US citizen without regard to elected or appointed position, nor subject to White House interference."

Kyle Balluck & Aris Folley of the Hill: "President Trump late Sunday suggested that Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) was guilty of treason and should be 'immediately' impeached. 'Nancy Pelosi knew of all of the many Shifty Adam Schiff lies and massive frauds perpetrated upon Congress and the American people, in the form of a fraudulent speech knowingly delivered as a ruthless con, and the illegal meetings with a highly partisan "Whistleblower" & lawyer,' he tweeted. 'This makes Nervous Nancy every bit as guilty as Liddle’ Adam Schiff for High Crimes and Misdemeanors, and even Treason. I guess that means that they, along with all of those that evilly "Colluded" with them, must all be immediately Impeached!'... Members of Congress cannot be impeached...." Mrs. McC: Somebody should explain impeachment to Trump; despite its prominence in his life, he still doesn't get it. This is the second time Trump has urged somebody (he uses the passive voice) to impeach members of Congress; last week it was Mitt Romney for disagreeing with Trump's solicitation of China to "investigate" the Bidens.

Emma Newberger of CNBC: "Goldman Sachs said the cost of tariffs imposed by ... Donald Trump last year against Chinese goods has fallen 'entirely' on American businesses and households, with a greater impact on consumer prices than previously expected. The bank said in a note that consumer prices are higher partly because Chinese exporters have not lowered their prices to better compete in the US market. Trump has repeatedly -- and inaccurately -- claimed that China will pay for tariffs imposed by the U.S."

Tanya Snyder, et al., of Politico: "In her first 14 months as Transportation secretary, Elaine Chao met with officials from Kentucky, which her husband Mitch McConnell represents in the Senate, vastly more often than those from any other state. In all, 25 percent of Chao's scheduled meetings with local officials [seeking DOT grants] of any state from January 2017 to March 2018 were with Kentuckians, who make up only about 1.3 percent of the U.S. population.... At least five of Chao's 18 meetings with local Kentuckians were requested in emails from McConnell staffers, who alerted Chao's staffers which of the officials were 'friends' or 'loyal supporters,' according to records obtained under the Freedom of Information Act.... The department has long maintained that it, and [Chao], have shown no favoritism to [Kentucky], even while local officials from other states have complained about having trouble getting to see her."

Travis Loller of the AP: "With a bandage above his left eye and a large, red welt below it, former President Jimmy Carter was greeted by a cheering crowd Monday morning as he prepared to help build a home with Habitat for Humanity in Nashville. Carter fell at home on Sunday, requiring 14 stitches, but he did not let his injuries keep him from participating in his 36th building project with the nonprofit Christian housing organization. He turned 95 last Tuesday, becoming the first U.S. president to reach that milestone."

~~~~~~~~~~

** Trump Betrays Kurds, Backs Autocrat Erdogan. Eric Schmitt, et al., of the New York Times: "In a major shift in United States military policy in Syria, the White House said on Sunday that President Trump had given his endorsement for a Turkish military operation that would sweep away American-backed Kurdish forces near the border in Syria. Turkey considers the Kurdish forces to be a terrorist insurgency, and has long sought to end American support for the group. But the Kurdish fighters, which are part of the Syrian Democratic Forces, or S.D.F., have been the United States' most reliable partner in fighting the Islamic State in a strategic corner of northern Syria. Now, Mr. Trump's decision goes against the recommendations of top officials in the Pentagon and the State Department who have sought to keep a small troop presence in northeast Syria to continue operations against the Islamic State, or ISIS, and to act as a critical counterweight to Iran and Russia. Administration officials said that Mr. Trump spoke directly with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey on the issue on Sunday." Emphasis added. The Guardian's story is here. ~~~

     ~~~ If you're wondering, "But what would Vlad say?" the answer is, "Good boy, Donnie."

~~~ Bassem Mroue of the AP: "U.S.-backed Kurdish-led forces said American troops began pulling back Monday from positions along the border in northeast Syria ahead of an expected Turkish invasion that the Syrian Kurds say will overturn five years of achievements in the battle against the Islamic State group. The Syrian Kurdish fighters also accused Washington of failing to abide by its commitments to its key allies in the fight against IS. It's a major shift in U.S. policy." ~~~

~~~ Saphora Smith of NBC News: "The U.S. decision to stand aside and allow Turkey to kick off a military operation in northeast Syria risks further destabilizing the war-torn region, undermining the fight against ISIS and sparking a wider conflict between Turkey and Kurdish fighters, analysts and Kurdish-led forces warned on Monday."

The Plot Thickens -- Grifters Gotta Grift

Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Friday, Politico published a story by Ben Lefebvre & Daniel Lippman with this lede: "Energy Secretary Rick Perry urged Ukraine's president to root out corruption and pushed the new government for changes at its state-run oil and gas company...." Later on, they reminded us of a Politico story published a few days before that Perry was "expected to resign next month." Then, in their recitation of what-all Perry did on his jaunts to Ukraine, they let on that Perry was pushing the new Ukraine government to put his own friends on the board of Naftogaz, Ukraine's state-owned natural gas company. AND there was this: "Among Perry's numerous visits with Zelenksy and other Ukraine officials in the past year was a dinner with Zelensky, Jared Kushner and other officials in June, according to a government photo taken by the U.S. of the event." So I wrote, "AND you know there has to be something in this for the Trump Crime Family[.]" ~~~

~~~ ** Come Now Desmond Butler, et al., of the AP: "As Rudy Giuliani was pushing Ukrainian officials last spring to investigate one of Donald Trump's main political rivals, a group of individuals with ties to [Trump & Giuliani] were also active in Ukraine.... This circle of businessmen and Republican donors touted connections to Giuliani and Trump while trying to install new management at the top of Ukraine's massive state gas company [Naftogaz]. Their plan was to then steer lucrative contracts to companies controlled by Trump allies, according to two people with knowledge of their plans.... After Zelensky's surprise election, "the effort to install a friendlier management team at the helm of the gas company ... would soon be taken up with Ukraine's new president by ... Rick Perry, whose slate of candidates [to run Naftogaz] included a fellow Texan who is one of Perry's past political donors.... The affair shows how those with ties to Trump and his administration were pursuing business deals in Ukraine that went far beyond advancing the president's personal political interests. It also raises questions about whether Trump allies were mixing business and politics just as Republicans were calling for a probe of Biden and ... Hunter, who served five years on the board of another Ukrainian energy company, Burisma.... The Associated Press has interviewed four people with direct knowledge of the attempts to influence Naftogaz, and their accounts show Perry playing a key role in the effort.... The Trump and Giuliani allies driving the attempt to change the senior management at Naftogazt, however, appear to have had inside knowledge of the U.S. government's plans in Ukraine. For example, they told people that Trump would replace the U.S. ambassador there months before she was actually recalled to Washington...." ...

     ... Oh, And "At the center of the Naftogaz plan," were Giuliani's shady "clients" (or whatever) Lev Parnas & Igor Fruman, "and an oil magnate from Boca Raton, Florida, named Harry Sargeant III." Sargent, a big GOP donor, has met with Trump at the White House & at Mar-a-Lago. ~~~

     ~~~ So Then ... Alayna Treene & Jonathan Swan of Axios reported that "President Trump told House Republicans [in a conference call Friday] that he made his now infamous phone call to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the urging of Energy Secretary Rick Perry -- a call Trump claimed he didn't even want to make.... Perry's spokeswoman, Shaylyn Hynes, told Axios: 'Secretary Perry absolutely supported and encouraged the president to speak to the new president of Ukraine to discuss matters related to their energy security and economic development.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: That is, Trump was fingering Perry not just for urging him to pick up the phone, but also for being up to his neck in the Ukraine scandal. And in this part of the Ukraine scheme, the cash would flow not from American taxpayers to Ukraine but from Ukraine to Trump's & Perry's backers. Trump & Perry's plan then, was to use Zelensky as the middle man in a scheme to move taxpayer dollars into the pockets of the Trump Gang's oil-and-gas magnates. The Ukraine "corruption" Trump was interested in quashing was not just his political rival Joe Biden & the private gas company Hunter Biden represented, but also the state-owned gas company that wasn't paying tribute to Trump/Perry backers' interests.

** Molly McKew, in a Political Magazine piece, describes the hot war Russia is waging in Ukraine, which "is the necessary context in which Americans should understand the gravity of ... Donald Trump's attempt to strong-arm Ukraine into becoming a subsidiary of his reelection campaign. In one gesture, Trump reduced the survival of Ukraine to a bargaining chip in an utterly petty pursuit; embroiled Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian president, in scandal and undercut his ability to defend the interests of his nation; and weakened the clout of U.S. leadership on Ukraine, the region and beyond. The biggest beneficiary of this latest Trump-derived scandal is the Kremlin.... Trump is bargaining away U.S. security for conspiracy theories about Ukraine and the Bidens that he hopes will not only strengthen his position for his reelection, but will also erase the evidence that Kremlin intervention helped to elect him president.... It is in our vital contemporary interest, in countless respects, to limit the further expansion of Russia's hold on the Black Sea region, which the Kremlin uses to stage its war in Syria and to project power into the Middle East and Africa, across the Mediterranean on up to the western Arctic, and beyond. It is a pattern of activity that has degraded the security environment in which we and our alliances operate...."

Matt Zapotosky, et al., of the Washington Post: "Those involved in the FBI investigation [of the origins into possible coordination between the Trump campaign & Russia] said they are mystified by the attorney general's activities and interest in the professor, Joseph Mifsud, and they suspect that [AG Bill] Barr might be using Justice Department resources to validate conjecture that Mifsud was deployed against a Trump adviser by Western intelligence to manufacture a basis to investigate the campaign.... Barr's inquiry has heartened Trump and his conservative allies.... Barr has long harbored suspicions about the Russia probe.... The unproven theory about Mifsud is that the Maltese professor was working to set up the Trump campaign." See also the NYT report, linked yesterday, on Barr's investigation of Trump's international conspiracy theories. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ Bill Barr Is a Threat to National Security. Aruna Viswanatha, et al., of the Wall Street Journal: "Attorney General William Barr is sparking discord in several foreign capitals, going outside usual channels to seek help from allies in reviewing the origins of a U.S. counterintelligence investigation begun during the 2016 presidential campaign. By meeting directly with foreign leaders -- rather than relying on investigator-to-investigator channels -- Mr. Barr has stirred up domestic politics in some of the countries he has tapped for assistance. In Rome, the national-security committee of Italy's Parliament this past week asked Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte to appear and answer questions about his contacts with Mr. Barr.... In Canberra, Australian authorities said they were cooperating with Mr. Barr but disputed allegations that one of its diplomats acted inappropriately in 2016 -- an allegation at the center of Mr. Barr's inquiry.... In London, Mr. Barr's personal requests have irked counterintelligence officials over a perceived thwarting of procedural norms.... Mr. Trump has said he expects the review to show that crimes were committed by his political opponents, but no evidence of that has emerged.... 'This could put the Five Eyes relationship in jeopardy,' [Sen. Mark] Warner [D-Va.] said, using the term to describe an intelligence-sharing agreement among the U.S., U.K., Canada, Australia and New Zealand. 'If Australia starts to feel that their intelligence is being used for American domestic political purposes to smear an opponent of Mr. Trump, then that trust breaks down.'" Firewalled. Mrs. McC: So far (7 pm ET Sunday), I haven't found any summaries of the story." ~~~

~~~ Matt Yglesias of Vox tries, without success, to make some sense of the crazy conspiracy theory that Bill Barr, International P.I., is pursuing around the globe on our dime. As Scott Lemieux puts it in LG&$, the theory "is roughly on a par with 'Sandy Hook was a false flag operation.'" Lemieux, BTW, seems a bit skeptical of "the highly principled anti-corruption crusade of Donald Trump and Rudy Giuliani" vis-a-vis the Naftogaz "reform."

We invited the White House on to answer questions on the show this morning, [but] they did not offer a guest. We also invited both of the president's personal lawyers, Rudy Giuliani and Jay Sekulow. They declined to appear. We invited every member of Senate leadership and the top House Republicans. They all declined or did not even respond. [The Republican no-show happened' 'on one of the most critical news weeks of the last three years.... -- Jake Tapper, on air, Sunday ~~~

~~~ Republicans in Hiding. David Boddiger of Splinter: "With the exception of Chuck Todd, of all people, Sunday saw a lot less shouting.... As several news show hosts pointed out, Republican leaders are in hiding after damning evidence surfaced this week in the Trump impeachment inquiry...." ~~~

~~~ Tim Hains of Real Clear Politics: "During a heated interview on Sunday's 'Meet The Press,' Republican Senator Ron Johnson accused former members of the FBI and CIA of conspiring to frame President Trump. Host Chuck Todd fired back by calling Johnson's accusations 'Fox News conspiracy propaganda stuff.' [There follwed a contentious back & forth, with Todd trying to get Johnson to answer his questions about Ukraine.]... 'So do you not trust the FBI? Do you not trust the CIA?' Todd asked. Johnson replied: 'No, no, I don't. Absolutely not. After Peter Strzok and Lisa Page, after James Comey?!' 'I'm sorry that you chose to come on this way, senator,' Chuck Todd said as he ended the interview." Includes video. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ... Amber Phillips of the Washington Post: "On Friday..., [Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)] indicated to the Wall Street Journal that he had been concerned this summer that President Trump was creating a quid pro quo with Ukraine by holding up military aid.... It was probably not a coincidence then that on Sunday, Sen. ... Johnson..., chairman of the Homeland Security ... Committee, went on TV to try to defend the president. But arguably, he did more damage to the president's cause by showing just how difficult it is to defend Trump.... Johnson refused to answer basic questions about why he was concerned about Trump, instead bringing up a completely unrelated conspiracy theory about a former FBI official.... To defend Trump...., Republicans ... increasingly have to ignore or ditch the facts altogether.... [Chuck] Todd spends the [the full interview] trying to get Johnson to answer [his first question].... Johnson tries to deflect by throwing out false summaries of the Mueller report...." ~~~

     ~~~ Pema Levy of Mother Jones: "The bizarre interview is a demonstration of how ... Donald Trump's allies have responded to the impeachment inquiry by rallying around debunked theories about Democratic plots and deep state set-ups during the 2016 election, while dismissing the findings of Robert Mueller's investigation into Russian interference.

     ~~~ Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Chuck Todd Seeks His Inner Walter Cronkite. Peter Wade of Rolling Stone: "Of late Todd has taken a stronger approach on matters concerning the president's controversies. On Thursday, the host opened his show and put aside his propensity for going out his way to come across as unbiased and said, 'I don't say this lightly, but let's be frank. A national nightmare is upon us. The basic rules of our democracy are under attack, from the president.'"

~~~ Rudy Was on the TeeVee, After All. John Amato of Crooks & Liars: "He joined Howard Kurtz on Fox News' Media Buzz and Kurtz asked him about the impeachable crime of investigating a political rival, 'When he [Trump] came on the camera and urged China and Ukraine to investigate the Bidens --- he ... doesn't see anything wrong with it, he admitted it... Didn't he undercut your defense?' Giuliani replied, 'The President of the United States has every right to ask countries to help us in a criminal investigation that should be undertaken.'... It happens to involve a political opponent, Kurtz interjected. 'I can't help that. I mean, suppose the political opponent committed murder. What are we supposed to do if he's a political opponent? Don't investigate them?' Giuliani is presenting this as a extreme hypothetical, but at some point, 'Joe Biden committed murder' will filter through the alt-right sites and become yet another conspiracy theory upon which the GOP will demand investigations (see: Vince Foster, Seth Rich, et al.)" Emphasis added. ~~~

~~~ Aidan McLaughlin of Mediaite: "As Team Trump seeks to expand the eye of their Biden conspiracy to East Asia, the president and his lawyer Rudy Giuliani have wheeled out an absurd new claim: that Hunter Biden was paid $1.5 BILLION by China.... While Republican lawmakers attempt to defend Trump by claiming his China comments were simply a joke, Trump defended his call for China to investigate Biden on Twitter. [Trump tweeted,] 'It is INCREDIBLE to watch and read the Fake News and how they pull out all stops to protect Sleepy Joe Biden and his thrown out of the Military son, Hunter, who was handed $100,000 a month (Plus,Plus) from a Ukrainian based company, even though he had no experience in energy..., and separately got 1.5 Billion Dollars from China despite no experience and for no apparent reason....' Giuliani repeated the false claim during his bitter clash with Fox News host Howard Kurtz. 'The Chinese were paying $1.5 billion to this kid!' he exclaimed. Read The Washington Post's thorough fact check of the Biden-China conspiracy here."

Kathy Gilsinan of the Atlantic: "Military and other security-assistance aid eats up about a third of the U.S. foreign-aid budget, which itself has been a target of Trump's ire. And it has a spotty record -- both in achieving stated American goals when it's offered, and in forcing better behavior when it's withheld.... Ukraine does suffer from corruption, but it's by no means the worst offender among the recipients of American largesse.... U.S. foreign policy relies a great deal on giving military aid, in the form of arms sales and training foreign forces, in an effort to advance security interests without committing large forces overseas. The public should be scrutinizing where it's going and what ends it's achieving -- and at what cost. But in the Ukraine instance, the bigger question now is whether, in the course of a phone call, the president dangled $400 million not in the American interest, but in his own."

Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "The Supreme Court has a powerfully controversial docket for its term beginning Monday that will test Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr.'s efforts to portray the institution as above the noisy and partisan battles of the moment. Two unknowns -- the health of the court's oldest member, Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, and whether the court will be drawn into legal controversies arising from the House Democrats' impeachment inquiry into President Trump -- add to the uncertainty. Resolution of the most contentious cases could happen in June, in the heat of a presidential campaign in which the future of the court has emerged as a galvanizing issue for conservatives and liberals." ~~~

~~~ An Umpire Whose Calls Favor His Home Team. Aaron Belkin & Sean McElwee, in a New York Times op-ed: "The term is likely to signal how far the court's conservative majority will go to block the agenda of the next Democratic president and Congress. With the court on the precipice of a dangerous lurch rightward, polling data indicate that Democrats have a positive view of Chief Justice John Roberts, who has expressed regard for precedent and concern for the court's legitimacy, encouraging a view that he will step in to prevent partisan excess. Yet history suggests that Democrats have much to fear. The chief justice is neither a swing vote among his four liberal and four conservative justices, nor a moderate. Expect him to land time and again with the conservatives.... He [has] compiled a voting record that is among the most partisan of any justice in the modern era when it comes to cases overturning precedent, according to our analysis.... Our analysis shows that the chief justice's voting record is as conservative as those of his most extreme current and former colleagues.... The chief justice's strong public defense of the court's integrity has had the effect of camouflaging a subtle, long-game strategy to tilt the court's jurisprudence decidedly to the right."

Anneken Tappe of CNN: "The US economy got off to a rough start this month, with various data pointing at a slowdown. Now economists are saying this trend will only get worse. The National Association for Business Economics said in a survey released Monday that US GDP growth next year will drop below 2% for the first time since 2016. In the previous survey, the consensus expectation for next year was 2.1% -- now it has dropped to 1.8%.... Donald Trump promised as much as 4% GDP growth earlier in his presidency, which the economy achieved in the second quarter of 2018. For the year, however, the economy grew by a more modest 2.8%. Although the 54 economists surveyed by NABE don't yet expect a recession, the dour forecast is the latest example that a slowdown is no longer merely an expectation. It's here now, and it's likely to stay."

Way Beyond the Beltway

Iraq. Bobby Allyn of NPR: "Iraqi authorities say at least seven more people were killed in clashes between protesters and police in eastern Baghdad on Sunday, bringing the death toll from nearly a week of anti-government rallies throughout Iraq to more than 100 with thousands of others injured. Protesters, who took to the streets on Tuesday frustrated over joblessness and corruption, have been met with live ammunition from security forces attempting to break up the mass demonstrations that have convulsed Baghdad and parts of southern Iraq for days. So far, 104 people have been killed and 6,107 have been wounded in the unrest, according to figures released by Iraqi security officials. More than 1,200 security members are among the injured."

News Lede

CNN: "The 2019 Nobel Prize for Medicine has been jointly awarded to William Kaelin Jr., Sir Peter Ratcliffe and Gregg Semenza for their pioneering research into how human cells respond to changing oxygen levels. Announcing the prize at the Karolinska Institute in Stockholm on Monday, the Nobel committee said that the trio's discoveries have paved the way for 'promising new strategies to fight anaemia, cancer and many other diseases.'"