The Conversation -- February 6, 2024

Today is primary election day in Nevada, and there's a very special election in New York to fill George Santos' seat, not that anyone could really replace George/Anthony Surname-Undetermined. More on these contests linked below. Oops! The New York special election is not till next Tuesday. Sorry about that.

** Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha. Karoun Demirjian of the New York Times: "The United States House of Representatives rejected impeachment charges against Alejandro N. Mayorkas, the homeland security secretary, on Tuesday after a small group of Republicans broke with their party and refused to support what amounted to a partisan indictment of President Biden's immigration policies. The 216-214 dealt a stunning defeat to Speaker Mike Johnson, who had expressed confidence that he had the votes to charge Mr. Mayorkas with high crimes and misdemeanors for failing to lock down the United States border with Mexico amid a migrant surge, a move that Republicans have been promising for more than a year. In an extraordinary scene on the House floor, Republican leaders held the vote open for several minutes as they scrambled to corral the necessary votes to approve the charges, as Democrats jeered and yelled 'Order!' and the tally hovered at a tie. In the end, three Republican defections -- by Representatives Ken Buck of Colorado, Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin, and Tom McClintock of California -- were enough to sink the measure." This is the pinned item in a liveblog. MB: Looks as if the Johnson will bring up the Mayorkas impeachment for a vote again Wednesday.~~~

Update. Catie Edmondson: "Raj Shah, a spokesman for Speaker Johnson, says 'House Republicans fully intend to bring articles of impeachment against Secretary Mayorkas back to the floor when we have the votes for passage.' Assuming no one changes their vote, Republicans would be able to win a slim majority once Representative Steve Scalise of Louisiana, the No. 2 Republican, returns to Washington. He has been recovering from treatment for multiple myeloma and away from the Capitol for the past few weeks."

     ~~~ CNN's liveblog of the impeachment vote is here.

Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha. Manu Raju, et al., of CNN: "The House on Tuesday failed to pass a standalone package for $17.6 billion in Israel aid amid opposition from both Republicans and Democratic leaders. Because of resistance among members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus, House Speaker Mike Johnson had been forced to bring up the bill under a procedure that requires two-thirds majority of the House to approve it. That means he needed the support of a sizable number of Democrats to get behind it, and failed to cross that threshold." MB: Apparently Johnson will try again on this one, too.

Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "When ... Donald J. Trump, in his final hours in the White House in early 2021, commuted a 10-year drug smuggling sentence being served by a New Yorker named Jonathan Braun, he made no mention of Mr. Braun's many other legal problems. Months earlier, the Federal Trade Commission and the New York State attorney general had filed suits against Mr. Braun saying he swindled and intimidated borrowers who had taken money from a network of predatory lenders he ran, charging usurious interest rates and making violent threats. On Tuesday, a federal judge in New York imposed $20 million in fines on Mr. Braun after finding him liable for the accusations made by the trade commission. Judge Jed S. Rakoff of the Federal District Court in Manhattan excoriated Mr. Braun in the ruling, depicting him as a hardened, craven man who 'gleefully, with little remorse,' boasted about his illegal conduct and treated it as a 'laughing matter' as he threatened the business owners he gouged."

Brett Samuels of the Hill: "President Biden on Tuesday blamed former President Trump for torpedoing a bipartisan border security bill for political reasons. 'All indication are this bill won't even move forward to the Senate floor. Why? A simple reason: Donald Trump. Because Donald Trump thinks it's bad for him politically,' Biden said in remarks from the White House." ~~~

~~~ Joe gives 'em hell: ~~~

~~~ Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senate Republicans, under heavy pressure from former President Trump, will block a procedural motion to begin debate on a bipartisan border security deal this week, leaving funding for the war in Ukraine in limbo for the foreseeable future. A failure to advance the border security deal this week would signal the legislation is unlikely to pass the Senate without major changes. And any revisions to asylum and border security reforms negotiated with the White House and Senate Democrats could scuttle the whole deal.... Asked Tuesday morning if any Senate Republicans will vote to proceed to the bill, [Senate Minority Whip John] Thune [R-S.D.] said it's 'unlikely' because members of his conference want more time to study the complicated package. 'I think it's unlikely because I just think our members are still -- they want more time to evaluate it,' he said.... He said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's (D-N.Y.) decision to schedule a vote Wednesday to allow the bill to proceed is 'rushing it.'"

Ed White of the AP: "A Michigan jury convicted a school shooter's mother of involuntary manslaughter Tuesday in a first-of-its-kind trial to determine whether she had any responsibility in the deaths of four students in 2021. Prosecutors say Jennifer Crumbley was grossly negligent when she failed to tell Oxford High School that the family had guns, including a 9 mm handgun that her son, Ethan Crumbley, used at a shooting range on the weekend before the Nov. 30, 2021, attack."

Keven Breuninger of CNBC: "The New York judge set to deliver a verdict in the civil business fraud trial of Donald Trump has ordered attorneys in the case to give him details about possible perjury by former Trump Organization Chief Financial Officer Allen Weisselberg. Judge Arthur Engoron, in an email to the attorneys made public Tuesday, said that if Weisselberg had lied in one aspect of his testimony, the judge might disregard anything Weisselberg has said on the witness stand or to investigators. Engoron flagged a New York Times report last week that said Weisselberg is negotiating a deal with the Manhattan District Attorney's Office that would require him to plead guilty to perjury. That report, which cited people with knowledge of the matter, said that Weisselberg would have to admit that he lied during his testimony at Trump's fraud trial in Manhattan Supreme Court. Weisselberg, 76, would also have to say he lied under oath during an interview with the office of New York Attorney General Letitia James, the Times reported."

For the purpose of this criminal case, former President Trump has become citizen Trump, with all of the defenses of any other criminal defendant. But any executive immunity that may have protected him while he served as president no longer protects him against this prosecution. -- Federal Appeals Court, in a unanimous decision, released Tuesday

Former President Trump's alleged efforts to remain in power despite losing the 2020 election were, if proven, an unprecedented assault on the structure of our government. He allegedly injected himself into a process in which the President has no role -- the counting and certifying of the Electoral College votes -- thereby undermining constitutionally established procedures and the will of the Congress.

At bottom, former President Trump's stance would collapse our system of separated powers by placing the President beyond the reach of all three Branches. Presidential immunity against federal indictment would mean that, as to the President, the Congress could not legislate, the Executive could not prosecute and the Judiciary could not review. We cannot accept that the office of the Presidency places its former occupants above the law for all time thereafter. - Ibid. ~~~

~~~ ** Adam Feuer & Charlie Savage of the New York Times: "A federal appeals court on Tuesday rejected ... Donald J. Trump's claim that he was immune to charges of plotting to subvert the results of the 2020 election, ruling that he must go to trial on a criminal indictment accusing him of seeking to overturn his loss to President Biden. The unanimous ruling by a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit handed Mr. Trump a significant defeat, but was unlikely to be the final word on his claims of executive immunity. Mr. Trump is expected to continue his appeal to the Supreme Court -- possibly with an intermediate request to the full appeals court. Still, the panel's 57-page ruling signaled an important moment in American jurisprudence, answering a question that had never been addressed by an appeals court: Can former presidents escape being held accountable by the criminal justice system for things they did while in office?... The panel said ... that the underlying case, which was put on hold by the trial judge in December, would remain suspended if Mr. Trump appealed its decision to the Supreme Court by Monday, Feb. 12." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: IOW, Trump cannot further delay his trial by appealing the three-judge panel's ruling to the full (en banc) D.C. Appeals court. According to Lisa Rubin of MSNBC, Trump can still appeal to the full appeals court, but the three judges' decision sends the case back to the trial judge as of next Tuesday, so motions and other court business can proceed. Update: Andrew Weissmann agrees with what I wrote: that Trump cannot take the intermediary step of asking for an en banc review by the appeals court; he must go directly to the Supremes -- and he has only a week to do so. ~~~

     ~~~ The ABC News report is here. And here is the ruling, via the Court.

~~~ Khalada Rahman of Newsweek, republished by MSN: "Donald Trump has claimed that every president will be 'immediately indicted' by the opposing party after leaving office if they are not granted immunity.... 'IF IMMUNITY IS NOT GRANTED TO A PRESIDENT, EVERY PRESIDENT THAT LEAVES OFFICE WILL BE IMMEDIATELY INDICTED BY THE OPPOSING PARTY,' Trump wrote on his Truth Social platform on Monday night. 'WITHOUT COMPLETE IMMUNITY, A PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES WOULD NOT BE ABLE TO PROPERLY FUNCTION!'" MB: No, Donald, only a corrupt DOJ would automatically and "immediately" indict a former president without cause. I wonder if the Appeals Court gave Trump's attorneys a heads-up yesterday that their ruling was coming Tuesday, because Trumpaloony certainly seemed exercised Monday night.

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Michael Shear of the New York Times: "President Biden vowed on Monday to veto a House Republican bill that would provide $17.6 billion in aid to Israel, calling it a 'cynical political maneuver' intended to hurt the chances of passage for broader legislation that would provide money for Israel, Ukraine, Taiwan and the U.S. border.... In its official response [to Speaker Mike Johnson's announcement Saturday of an Israel-only bill] on Monday, the Biden administration said the president would veto the House bill if it came to his desk."

They Can't Take Yes for an Answer. Annie Karni of the New York Times: "Republicans in Congress who have spent months demanding that any aid to Ukraine be paired with a crackdown against migration into the United States got what they asked for when a bipartisan group of senators released a $118.3 billion agreement that would provide both. On Monday, many of them rejected it anyway.... Even as Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the minority leader and a champion of funding for Ukraine, took to the floor to push for action on the bill..., Speaker Mike Johnson denounced the measure as 'even worse than we expected' and, in a joint statement with his leadership team, repeated what had become his mantra about the deal -- that it would be 'dead on arrival' in the House." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Since 2020, Republicans have decided not to have a party platform beyond "What Trump Sez." So to help voters know what they do stand for, GOP members of Congress could at least put out a manifesto making it clear: "We Are Not Here to Legislate."

"Doomed." Igor Bobic of the Huffington Post: "Senate Republicans on Monday signaled their plan to filibuster bipartisan legislation that paired tougher border policy with more U.S. aid to Ukraine, a stunning reversal less than 24 hours after the legislation had been unveiled. With ... Donald Trump urging them to kill it, and many on the right up in arms about the proposal, top Senate Republicans emerged from a heated closed-door meeting and said they needed more time to review the agreement, suggesting that a scheduled Wednesday vote to advance the bill is all but doomed to fail."

The Biden/Schumer Open Border Bill allows 5,000 immigrants a day into our country. -- House Republicans in a social media post on Monday

And more like that. ~~~

~~~ Angelo Fichera of the New York Times: "Republican critics have quickly twisted one element of a bipartisan compromise bill unveiled on Sunday to misleadingly suggest that it permits 5,000 migrants to enter the country illegally every day. The legislation, which links additional funding in military aid for Ukraine with immigration policy, would more aggressively tamp down on illegal crossings at the U.S. border with Mexico.... Among other provisions, it would give officials the authority to summarily remove migrants, with little recourse, after a certain number cross: an average of 5,000 encounters per day for a week, or 8,500 in a single day."

Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post: "Welp, the dog caught the car again. After months -- decades? -- of running on tightening the border, House Republicans are suddenly paralyzed when offered the chance to do so.... Within hours of this 370-page bill dropping, House GOP leaders ruled out letting their chamber vote on any of it.... The White House and the bill's Senate negotiators are now trying to defend it against myriad falsehoods about open borders and the like. But the burden of proving -- or disproving -- the merits of this hard-fought deal should be on the speaker: What, exactly, is [Speaker Mike] Johnson's objection to doing so many things his party ran for office to do?" ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: As Rampell herself points out, Johnson and his cohort are already explaining why the bill is a loser, but they're lying. Besides the "5,000 'illegals' will stream across the border every day" lie, "... they keep insisting that President Biden [currently can] take actions that courts have ruled would be illegal."

Stephen Collinson of CNN: "Choosing governance over grievance rarely works in Donald Trump's Republican Party. Oklahoma's James Lankford, who produced the Senate's most conservative immigration plan in decades after tortuous talks with Democrats, is learning this lesson with the deal appearing close to collapse Monday a day after it was unveiled. 'This is a very bad bill for his career,' the ex-president said Monday, delivering an ominous warning to a red-state senator who could find himself out in the cold with the White House and his own political base if Trump wins the 2024 election. Trump's words, on The Dan Bongino Show, caused a Washington whiplash as GOP senators quickly rationalized their political interests and peeled away. By dinner time, a majority of Senate Republicans were leaning against the measure or were resolved to vote it down, meaning a filibuster-proof majority looked impossible, according to CNN sources."

     ~~~ Senile Florida Man Cannot Recall Endorsing Lankford in 2022. Matthew Chapman of the Raw Story: "... Donald Trump ... is now claiming that he never even supported the election of the senator who helped write [the border bill].... 'Just to correct the record, I did not endorse Sen. Lankford. I didn't do it. He ran, and I did not endorse him,' Trump told Dan Bongino on his show. Bongino then pointed Trump to his endorsement and that others were referring to it as well.... Trump did enthusiastically endorse Lankford when [Lankford] ... ran [in 2022].... Trump even proclaimed that Lankford was 'strong on the border.'"

~~~ Julie Tsirkin of NBC News: "As conservatives in Congress have blasted the new bipartisan border agreement for not going far enough, the legislation earned a key endorsement on Monday: the labor union that represents U.S. Border Patrol agents. The National Border Patrol Council -- which represents more than 18,000 agents -- said the bill would 'drop illegal border crossings nationwide and will allow our agents to get back to detecting and apprehending those who want to cross our border illegally and evade apprehension.' It's a significant statement of support from a group that endorsed ... Donald Trump in 2020 and has repeatedly railed against President Joe Biden's handling of the border." MB: No, those are not "conservatives in Congress. They're radical right-wing extremists."

Philip Bump of the Washington Post: Sen. J.D. "Vance [R-Ohio] was speaking with ABC News's George Stephanopoulos, who seemed to be focused on testing the limits of the senator's loyalty to Trump. If there's a limit, Stephanopoulos didn't find it.... 'Had you been vice president on January 6th, [2021,]' the ABC anchor asked, 'would you have certified the election results?' 'If I had been vice president, I would have told the states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia and so many others, that we needed to have multiple slates of electors, and I think the U.S. Congress should have fought over it from there,' Vance said. 'That is the legitimate way to deal with an election that a lot of folks, including me, think had a lot of problems in 2020.' It is not a legitimate way to do so, at all" (Also linked yesterday.)

Garrett Epps in the Washington Monthly: "... what [Texas Gov. Greg] Abbott is doing right now is what drunks in a bar do.... Using bellicose talk and deranged arguments against invisible enemies, he is talking himself and his MAGA allies into outright defiance if the occasion presents itself. He aims his gaudy patter squarely at federal authority, at federal courts, and at the Constitution itself.... If I were (God help me) [Donald] Trump's lawyer, I would suggest he stay quiet until the ballot exclusion case [before the Supreme Court] is resolved.... [Yet] Trump has now needlessly injected himself into the border standoff.... What we need at the border, the oft-indicted former president proclaimed, is more razor wire, more troops, more guns, more dueling commanders, more chances for things to go wrong. The 77-year-old, whose bone spur prevented his serving on the front lines in Vietnam, called for 'all willing states to deploy their guards to Texas to prevent the entry of illegals and to remove them back across the border.'... He is, in other words, an insurgent. In a sane legal system, he would be under house arrest awaiting trial."

Sky Palma of the Raw Story: "Donald Trump's MAGA movement is a 'tissue-paper tiger,' as evidenced by the underwhelming 'God's Army' convoy that traveled to the U.S.-Mexico border, according to an op-ed in USA Today by Rex Huppke. 'The 'God's Army' convoy was supposed to be a mighty force of 700,000 or more people from every corner of America,' Huppke writes. 'It wound up being maybe a couple hundred vehicles parked at a rural ranch in Quemado, Texas -- basically a Trump rally without a Trump, but with plenty of hucksters selling MAGA merch and grifting the easily grifted.... MAGA is and always has been a con to line the pockets of Trump and others who saw a swath of Americans waiting to be fleeced...."

Presidential Race

Maeve Reston of the Washington Post: "Nevada voters are heading to the polls Tuesday for their state's first primary in nearly three decades, offering President Biden another chance to pick up delegates after his Saturday win in South Carolina, while an unusual nonbinding Republican contest does not feature GOP front-runner Donald Trump. Biden faces only one long-shot challenger, with Nikki Haley the only Republican candidate in the primary.... [Trump] is the sole participant in Nevada's GOP caucuses later this week, which -- unlike Tuesday's primary -- will count in the race for delegates to the national convention." Reston goes on to explain how the Nevada GOP's presidential contest got to this confusing state. And there's this: "Late last year, a Nevada grand jury charged six Republicans who claimed to be presidential electors in 2020 and submitted certificates to Congress falsely asserting that Trump had won the election in their state, including [state party chair Michael] McDonald. Viewing the state GOP as essentially another arm of the Trump campaign, many of the GOP candidates opted not to spend money organizing in Nevada this cycle -- including Haley." MB: That's right, the Republican party chair, like Trump, is out on bail.

Miranda Nazzaro of the Hill: "President Biden on Sunday appeared to mix up French President Emmanuel Macron with Francois Mitterrand, the former president of France who died in 1996. The apparent mix-up took place during a Sunday campaign event in Las Vegas, in which Biden recounted a Group of 7 (G7) meeting he attended after being elected in 2020.... 'And Mitterand from Germany -- I mean, from France -- looked at me and said ... "You know, what ... why ... how long you back for?>' Biden said. 'And I looked at him and -- the Chancellor of Germany said, "What would you say, Mr. President, if you picked up the paper tomorrow in the London Times, and London Times said, "A thousand people break through the House of Commons, break down the doors, two Bobbies are killed in order to stop the election of the Prime Minister." What would you say?' The White House later posted the remarks, which had the name Mitterand crossed out and replaced with Macron." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Huh? How did the U.K. get into this story about a conversation among Biden, the French president and -- maybe -- the German chancellor? Truly mixed-up. Update: Oh, the G7 meeting was in the south of England, so maybe the British Parliament reference makes sense.

Josh Dawsey & Michael Scherer of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump has promised a presidency of 'retribution' if he wins another term in office. Many Republicans fear they might face the brunt of it. The former president has threatened to have donors to his Republican opponent Nikki Haley 'permanently barred' from his orbit. A top adviser has vowed to destroy the career of Rep. Bob Good (R-Va.), House Freedom Caucus chair, after he endorsed ... Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. The Trump campaign has also attempted to condemn former aides who worked for his rivals during the GOP nomination fight and have twisted arms demanding endorsements, telling lawmakers that Trump will remember exactly when they backed him.... In 2021 and 2022, he made it a near-singular mission to defeat Republican lawmakers who voted for his impeachment and who publicly disputed his claims of election fraud." The story goes on to give numerous additional examples of Trump's vindictive attacks on Republicans, some of whom have endorsed him. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) is running a presidential campaign against the sitting president. I doubt this has pleased Joe Biden. But if Biden has publicly threatened Phillips for his singular breach of party loyalty, I'm unaware of it.

AP: "Former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley has requested Secret Service protection after receiving a growing number of threats during her 2024 presidential campaign, according to a report published Monday [in the Wall Street Journal].... [The Secret Service is] authorized to provide protection to major party presidential candidates, an authority granted after the assassination of Robert F. Kennedy in 1968." MB: And we know the predicate is "because Donald Trump."

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California. Soumya Karlamangla & Shawn Hubler of the New York Times: "More than 120 mudslides spread soggy dirt and debris through the steep hillside neighborhoods of Los Angeles by late Monday, after an atmospheric river dumped heavy rain across a vast swath of the nation's most populated state. The death toll from the storm rose to three in Northern California, all killed by toppling trees. Even as the rain began to ease into the evening, Los Angeles officials continued to warn people to stay inside, keeping off the slick, mud-covered roads and away from swollen rivers and streams.... President Biden promised aid during an evening news conference, after Mayor Karen Bass of Los Angeles stepped away to take a call from him, and then held her phone up so that Mr. Biden could address residents by speakerphone. 'We'll get any help on the way as soon as you guys request it,' the president said. 'So just let me know. That's why I'm calling.' Ariel Cohen, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Los Angeles, warned on Monday evening that the danger had not yet passed, and even a small amount of rain could cause additional landslides." This is the pinned story in a liveblog.

Georgia Election Law. Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times: "... the end of Sunday night’s season premiere of 'Curb Your Enthusiasm' -- look out, spoilers coming -- took pretty, pretty, pretty clear aim at the major voting law Georgia passed in 2021. The episode highlights a provision of the legislation that effectively bars ... anyone ... who is not an election worker from providing food and water to voters waiting in line within a 150-foot radius of a polling place. Larry David ... travels to Atlanta.... He must go find the aunt of Leon, his friend and roommate.... He locates her in a line to vote, sweating in the sweltering Georgia heat, where she says she's been waiting for more than two and a half hours. Larry ... brings her some water. Instantly, police lights flash. 'Sir, in the navy blazer, put your hands in the air,' an officer says to a confused Mr. David. 'You're under arrest for violation of the Election Integrity Act.'... The episode ends with a mug shot of Mr. David, copping a glare and tan reminiscent of ... Donald J. Trump in the photo taken after he was booked in Georgia in August."

New York Congressional Race. Azi Paybarah & Maegan Vazquez of the Washington Post: "Just two months after the U.S. House voted to expel Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.), voters in his New York district will take part in a special election to vote on who should replace him in office. Early voting started Saturday.... The House voted 311-114 in December to expel Santos, creating the vacancy that state law requires be filled in a special election.... The Republican candidate is Mazi Pilip, a two-term Nassau County legislator who is a registered Democrat. She was born in Ethiopia, immigrated to Israel, fought in the Israel Defense Forces, and then immigrated to the United States.... The Democratic candidate is Tom Suozzi, a former member of Congress who held the seat for three terms before leaving to run unsuccessfully for governor of New York. Suozzi previously served as the Nassau county executive and mayor of Glen Cove.... Divisions in the Republican House majority are already making it hard for the party to pass legislation, and that won't get easier if Democrats pick up the Santos seat."

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Israel/Palestine, et al. The Washington Post's live updates of developments Tuesday in the Israel/Hamas war are here: "Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Egypt, the second stop of a Middle East tour that the State Department said aims to broker the release of Hamas-held hostages and the flow of more aid into Gaza, while preventing the conflict's spread.... Blinken met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in Riyadh amid a surge in violence in the region, which is bracing for continued attacks between U.S. forces and Iranian-backed militia groups.... In Gaza, fighting has forced about half of the Strip's population to crowd the southern Rafah area, raising fears that Israel's plans to expand its offensive to the city could lead to devastating consequences. ~~~

     ~~~ CNN's live updates for Tuesday are here.

U.K. Mark Landler of the New York Times: "King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer and is suspending his public engagements to undergo treatment, casting a shadow over a busy reign that began less than 18 months ago.... The announcement, made by Buckingham Palace on Monday evening, came a week after the 75-year-old sovereign was discharged from a London hospital, following a procedure to treat an enlarged prostate. The palace did not disclose what form of cancer Charles has, but a palace official said it was not prostate cancer. Doctors detected the cancer during that procedure, and the king began treatment on Monday." (Also linked yesterday.)

News Lede

New York Times: "Toby Keith, the larger-than-life singer-songwriter of No. 1 country hits like 'Who's Your Daddy?' and 'Made in America' and one of the biggest stars to come out of Nashville in three decades, died on Monday. He was 62."

The Conversation -- February 5, 2024

Philip Bump of the Washington Post: Sen. J.D. "Vance [R-Ohio] was speaking with ABC News's George Stephanopoulos, who seemed to be focused on testing the limits of the senator's loyalty to Trump. If there's a limit, Stephanopoulos didn't find it.... 'Had you been vice president on January 6th, [2021,]' the ABC anchor asked, 'would you have certified the election results?' 'If I had been vice president, I would have told the states, like Pennsylvania, Georgia and so many others, that we needed to have multiple slates of electors, and I think the U.S. Congress should have fought over it from there,' Vance said. 'That is the legitimate way to deal with an election that a lot of folks, including me, think had a lot of problems in 2020.' It is not a legitimate way to do so, at all."

U.K. Mark Landler of the New York Times: "King Charles III has been diagnosed with cancer and is suspending his public engagements to undergo treatment, casting a shadow over a busy reign that began less than 18 months ago.... The announcement, made by Buckingham Palace on Monday evening, came a week after the 75-year-old sovereign was discharged from a London hospital, following a procedure to treat an enlarged prostate. The palace did not disclose what form of cancer Charles has, but a palace official said it was not prostate cancer. Doctors detected the cancer during that procedure, and the king began treatment on Monday."

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Liz Goodwin & Leigh Ann Caldwell of the Washington Post: "After months of talks, Senate negotiators on Sunday released a sweeping bipartisan border security deal that is aimed at discouraging migrants from crossing the U.S.-Mexico border. The $118 billion national security legislation also includes billions of dollars in funding for Ukraine, Israel, the Indo-Pacific and humanitarian aid, but it has a politically perilous path ahead.... Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that he would hold the first procedural vote on the legislation on Wednesday, leaving the bill's boosters little time to sell its provisions. 'Senators must shut out the noise from those who want this agreement to fail for their own political agendas,' he said in a statement Sunday evening. The legislation -- a top priority for President Biden -- would, if passed, mark the first significant action taken by Congress on immigration in decades. It attempts to close loopholes in the asylum process, limit the use of parole for migrants at the border and give the president new authority to effectively shut down the border to migrants when attempted crossings are high. 'Get it to my desk so I can sign it into law immediately,' Biden said in a statement....

"The politics of the deal abruptly changed when Trump and his allies began attacking the idea of passing any border legislation -- fearful that addressing the border crisis might remove a potent campaign issue for him in an election year.... [Speaker of the House Mike] Johnson said this weekend he planned a vote in the House on billions in aid to Israel without money for Ukraine or the border, further complicating the Senate deal's prospects.... In a letter to his Democratic colleagues, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) called Johnson's new Israel-only bill 'a cynical attempt to undermine the Senate's bipartisan effort.'" CNN's report is here. ~~~

~~~ Lauren Sforza of the Hill: "House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y.) blasted House Republicans on Sunday for being 'wholly owned subsidiaries of Donald Trump.' Jeffries discussed the bipartisan Senate negotiations that have been underway since late last year in the hopes of reaching an agreement on border security on ABC's 'This Week.' He told co-host George Stephanopoulos that a potential proposal by the Senate should not be 'dead on arrival' in the House before lawmakers even review the text...."

"How Donald Trump Reduced the GOP to Groveling Sycophants." Mike Lofgren in Salon: "Just as the German army did, Republicans bet on what they thought was a malleable figurehead who would shower money on the plutocracy, shovel resources to the military and bust the unions. In both cases, they mostly got what they wanted. But in both cases, they also failed to foresee that their intended stooge would not only break free of their control but exert such total domination as to reduce them to cringing toadies forever protesting their loyalty. It is a rule of human behavior ... that bullies are the most fawning bully-worshippers. Sociologist and historian Richard Hofstadter described this behavior as 'a disorder in relation to authority, characterized by an inability to find other modes for human relationship than those of more or less complete domination or submission.'... Forever demanding freedom, they really seek servility.... They never cease to be jealous of those people...." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: BTW, I recommend your reading the Hofstadter essay linked above. Written in 1954, it is a stark reminder that, as Jesus spake, "The reactionaries will always be with you." Or "Trumpism is a persistent psychological disorder."

David Edwards of the Raw Story: "Sen. J.D. Vance (R-OH) had his microphone cut off during an interview on ABC News on Sunday after he denied statements he made about firing all civil servants. While interviewing Vance on ABC's This Week program, host George Stephanopoulos pointed to the senator's remarks on a 2021 radio program. 'I think that what Trump should do, like if I was giving him one piece of advice, fire every single mid-level bureaucrat, every civil servant in the administrative state, replace them with our people, and when the courts, because you will get taken to court, and then when the courts stop you, stand before the country like Andrew Jackson did and say the Chief Justice has made his ruling, now let him enforce it,' Vance told the program.... [After a back-and-forth in which Vance denied his prior remarks, Stephanopoulos said,] '... you've made it very clear... You believe the president can defy the Supreme Court.' 'No, no, no, no, George,' Vance said before his microphone was cut off and the program moved to another segment."

Presidential Race

Nicholas Nehamas of the New York Times: "Fresh off an overwhelming victory in South Carolina's Democratic primary, President Biden rallied supporters on Sunday in Nevada, saying that he had kept his promises to the Black and Hispanic voters who helped elect him. Mr. Biden spoke at a community center in the historic Westside neighborhood of Las Vegas, home to an African American community in a critical battleground state. He rattled off statistics about reductions in child poverty for Black, Hispanic and Indigenous people, talked about growth in minority-owned business and attacked ... Donald J. Trump for saying that immigration was 'poisoning the blood' of the United States."

E.J. Dionne of the Washington Post has changed his mind and now thinks Donald Trump should be disqualified as a candidate for office under the terms of the Fourteenth Amendments Section 3. "The court would not be disqualifying him. He disqualified himself." What compelled his turnaround were several briefs to the Supreme Court, some of which we've highlighted here before. But here are a couple we haven't mentioned: "Sherrilyn Ifill, a Howard Law School professor and former president of the NAACP Legal Defense Fund, shows how [the clause's] framers were preoccupied with the 'ongoing resistance to full Black citizenship by southern states' and feared that 'Black men who had been loyal to the Union ... would be disenfranchised, while disloyal white former Confederates would be rewarded with the vote.' Trump is a present-day embodiment of their fears, she wrote, having offered 'a false narrative discrediting the votes cast in jurisdictions with high concentrations of Black voters,' including Detroit, Philadelphia and Atlanta. And to argue that barring Trump from the ballot is 'antidemocratic,' wrote professors Carol Anderson and Ian Farrell in another brief, is 'ironic … as he bears by far the most responsibility for attempting to subvert democracy on Jan. 6.'"

Which of These People Would be a Worse President? ~~~

~~~ This One? Haley Has Changed Her Mind about Secession. Sort of. David Cohen of Politico: "Republican presidential candidate Nikki Haley on Sunday said that states can't secede, backtracking from remarks she made last week. 'According to the Constitution, they can't,' she told host Dana Bash on CNN's 'State of the Union.' On Wednesday, Haley had said in response to a question about Texans suggesting the state could leave the union, 'If Texas decides they want to do that, they can do that. If that whole state says we don't want to be part of America anymore, I mean, that's their decision to make.' On Sunday, the former U.N. ambassador explained she didn't mean to sound as if she approved of the idea of secession: 'What I said is, when government stops listening, let's remember states' rights matter. You have to be as close to the people as possible. No one is talking about seceding. That's not an issue at all.'" ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I suspect Haley suddenly looked in the mirror and saw President Haley. So President Haley asked the mirror, "Mirror, mirror, on the wall, would I want states to be seceding during my presidency?" And the mirror had no trouble answering the question. ~~~

~~~ Or This One? Maggie Astor of the New York Times: "... Donald J. Trump, in an interview that aired on Fox News on Sunday, suggested falsely that Latin American governments were picking the citizens they didn't want and shipping them to the U.S. border, resurrecting a claim that was central to his 2016 campaign. He also accused the Chinese Communist Party -- without providing any evidence -- of orchestrating illegal immigration into the United States, and said he believed China would try to interfere in the presidential election, adding that he liked President Xi Jinping 'a lot.'... Mr. Trump also spoke approvingly, as he has before, of the military-style mass deportation of Mexican immigrants under President Dwight D. Eisenhower.... Mass deportations are part of an extreme expansion of the anti-immigration policy that Mr. Trump is planning if he is elected again." ~~~

     ~~~ In the Same Interview. Joe DePaolo of Mediaite: "... Fox News anchor [Maria Bartiromo] ... asked [Trump], 'How's Ronna McDaniel doing?' Trump's response revealed a shakeup is imminent. 'I think she did great when she ran Michigan for me,' Trump said. 'I think she did okay, initially, in the RNC. I would say right now, there'll probably be some changes made.'" MB: Groveling at Trump's feet for more than seven years does not buy you job security nor does it spare you a humiliating assessment on national teevee. (Party chairs generally serve more-or-less at the pleasure of their party's leader, but a normal leader eases out a chair; s/he doesn't publicly abase the chair.) ~~~

     ~~~ AND. Rebecca Picciotto of CNBC: Donald Trump "confirmed in an interview broadcast on Sunday that he is considering a plan to impose tariffs of 60% or higher on Chinese goods in his potential second term.... 'Maybe it's going to be more than that.' Beyond China, the former president has said he would impose a blanket 10% tariff on all U.S. imports, despite broad criticism over how that could hurt consumers.... Trump's trade war with China cost Americans an estimated $195 billion since 2018, according to the American Action Forum, a conservative think tank. The economic battle also led to the loss of more than 245,000 U.S. jobs, according to the U.S.-China Business Council. At the time, Deutsche Bank estimated that the trade war was causing the stock market to hemorrhage trillions. The tariff dispute also left the U.S. and China, once each other's biggest trading partners, on rocky geopolitical terms." ~~~

     ~~~ AND The "Sir" Tell. Ed Mazza of the Huffington Post: "'I have steel people that every time they see me, they start to cry,' he told Fox News host Maria Bartiromo. 'They hug me. They said, "You saved our industry."' If the story rings a bell, it's because Trump has told plenty of variations of crying people over the years, often 'tough guys' who had never cried before." Thanks to Forrest M. for the lead.

Naomi Nix of the Washington Post: "Meta was criticized Monday by a company-funded oversight board for its 'incoherent' and 'confusing' policies on manipulated media after an altered video of President Biden spread on Facebook. The social media giant opted not to remove the video, which had been edited to show Biden appearing to touch his granddaughter inappropriately. In the unaltered footage, he is placing an 'I Voted' sticker on her chest. Meta said the post did not violate its rules, which apply only to deepfakes -- photos, videos and audio created by artificial intelligence to impersonate a person -- that alter someone's speech." ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Looks like fake video is the answer to Trumpbots' support of a serial sexual predator. "Okay, our guy is a pervert, but so is yours." And this is fine with Zuck.

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Tobi Raji of the Washington Post: "Target says it will no longer sell a civil rights activity kit that misidentified three prominent Black leaders ... after a high school U.S. history teacher's TikTok video calling out the errors went viral.... The 'Civil Rights Magnetic Learning Activity,' by Ohio-based Bendon Publishing, mixed up the names of American author and historian Carter G. Woodson, sociologist W.E.B. Du Bois and educator Booker T. Washington." MB: It's 2024. Do we really still have to defend against, "All Black people look alike"? (BTW, these three icons did not look remotely alike.)

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Digby highlights a Wall Street Journal article that details the millions and millions Tesla board members have made in Tesla stock options as well as all the drugs they use when they party with Elon Musk. According to the WSJ, "The Wall Street Journal reported in January that Musk has used drugs including cocaine, ecstasy, LSD and magic mushrooms, and that leaders at Tesla and SpaceX were concerned about it, particularly his recreational use of ketamine.... The volume of drug use by Musk and with board members has become concerning, some ... people [with knowledge] said." MB: On the other hand, the drug use explains a lot about how Musk has lost so many billions and why he is such a colossal jerk.

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South Dakota. Maham Javaid of the Washington Post: "The largest tribe in South Dakota has barred the state's governor from its lands for the second time in at least five years after her speech about curbing immigration at the U.S.-Mexico border 'offended' the tribal president. Frank Star Comes Out, the president of the Oglala Sioux Tribe, made the Pine Ridge Reservation in southwestern South Dakota off limits to Gov. Kristi L. Noem (R) on Friday after she told the state legislature that she was sending razor wire and security personnel to Texas, and that unauthorized immigration was harming reservations.... Star Comes Out noted that the Oglala Sioux is a 'sovereign nation,' under the protection of the United States, not South Dakota. He said in a statement that Noem was using the border issue to influence Donald Trump's presidential campaign and boost her chances of becoming his running mate."

Texas. Look at Us! Look at Us! We're Fomenting a Constitutional Crisis! AND We Have Assault Weapons! David Goodman of the New York Times: "Locked in a legal battle with the Biden administration over immigration enforcement, Gov. Greg Abbott of Texas said on Sunday that he was expanding his effort to establish state control over areas near the Rio Grande in an effort to deter migrants. Mr. Abbott, flanked by 13 other Republican governors, said that Texas would not limit its high-intensity efforts to the small municipal park along the river in Eagle Pass where the state has taken over and limited access for federal agents. A top Texas official said state law enforcement officers were also looking to move in on riverside ranch land north of the city that migrants have continued to use for crossing.... The assembled governors said that they backed Texas in its confrontation with the federal government. As they spoke, scores of National Guard troops stood silently with assault-style rifles across their chests."

Washington State. I Have a Nuclear Missile in My Garage. Gaya Gupta of the New York Times: "Members of the bomb squad in Bellevue, Wash., on Thursday were called to inspect parts of a military-grade missile in the garage of a resident. Elements of the larger, intact missile, such as the warhead, were missing and the authorities deemed the piece to be inert and safe, the police said in a news release on Friday. An Air Force museum in Dayton, Ohio, contacted the police in Bellevue on Jan. 31 to report that a resident had offered to donate the missile, which belonged to his late neighbor. The resident had been put in charge of his neighbor's estate, according to the Bellevue police, and said that his neighbor had originally purchased the missile from an estate sale."

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Israel/Palestine, et al. The Washington Post's live updates of developments Monday in the Israel/Hamas war are here: "The Biden administration says it will continue its military action against Iranian-backed militia groups, as Secretary of State Antony Blinken embarks on his fifth trip to the Middle East since Oct. 7. National security adviser Jake Sullivan said the strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen and militias in Iraq and Syria are 'the beginning of our response' to the killing of three U.S. soldiers in Jordan.... One of [Blinken's] goals is to seek agreement among Arab and Israeli officials over a Palestinian-led governing body for the West Bank and Gaza after the war. But significant obstacles remain. U.S. forces launched several attacks 'in self-defense' on Houthi missiles in Yemen on Sunday, Centcom said. The Houthis have threatened to 'meet escalation with escalation' and said their attacks on ships in the Red Sea would continue until Israel ends its assault on Gaza." ~~~

     ~~~ The New York Times live updates for Monday are here.

News Lede

New York Times: "A record-breaking California storm, which forced dozens of emergency rescues and knocked out power for hundreds of thousands of residents overnight, was expected to stall over the Los Angeles area and create more flooding on Monday. Even after torrential rains on Sunday that brought rising floodwaters, strong winds and mudslides that damaged homes, forecasters cautioned that the most dangerous part of the storm might still lie ahead, with less intense but nonstop showers expected to continue until Tuesday." This is the pinned item in a liveblog.

The Conversation -- February 4, 2024

Presidential Election

Elena Schneider, et al., of Politico: "President Joe Biden cruised to victory in the first sanctioned presidential primary Saturday night. Biden easily beat out nominal challenges from Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and self-help author Marianne Williamson in a state that he placed atop the primary calendar and where he scored a crucial victory during his 2020 campaign.... Turnout was trending to be roughly around a quarter of the total votes cast four years ago, though that was a much more competitive race.

The New York Times liveblogged South Carolina's Democratic presidential primary results here. The AP called the race for President Biden shortly after the polls closed at 7:00 pm ET. With more than 95% of the vote counted, Biden led with 96.2%, followed by Marianne Williamson had 2.1% and Dean Phillips with 1.7%. ~~~

Alyce McFadden: "South Carolina holds open primaries, so anyone registered to vote in the state can head to the polls on Saturday to participate in the first official Democratic primary of the year.... Polls [are] open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. in the state, and anyone still in line at 7 p.m. will be able to vote."

Michael Gold: "Donald Trump is off the campaign trail today; Republicans won't hold their primary in South Carolina until Feb. 24. But this morning on Truth Social, he railed against the criminal investigations and civil lawsuits against him as 'Biden investigations for political interference,' a claim he has been making without evidence for months."

Maya King: "Jaime Harrison, the Democratic National Committee chairman and a South Carolina native, had to vote at a different polling location today because of a last-minute consolidation by the county elections commission. 'This is what we fight in the South all the time,' he told reporters, calling the change a 'disgusting' mode of voter disenfranchisement."

Maya King: "Jay Parmley, the executive director of the South Carolina Democratic Party, said in a news conference that more than 51,000 South Carolinians had voted early in the state's Democratic primary. Seventy-six percent of those were Black voters."

Reid Epstein: "President Biden won the South Carolina primary on Saturday, giving him the kind of emphatic result he no doubt envisioned when he made the state the first contest on the Democrats' presidential nominating calendar. The election, called by The Associated Press shortly after polls closed, gives Mr. Biden the first set of delegates required to claim the Democratic nomination at the party's convention in August."

Nicholas Nehamas: "As he declares victory in South Carolina, Biden is attending a campaign event in Los Angeles with Black entertainment industry leaders. Earlier today, in Delaware, he visited the gravesites of his son Beau and his first wife and daughter. Beau's birthday is today."

Filip Timotija of the Hill: "President Biden hit former President Trump Saturday, claiming the GOP front-runner doesn't 'stand for anything,' during a stop at his campaign headquarters in Wilmington, Del., near his family home.... 'I'm feeling good about where we are, I really am,' Biden said. 'You know, folks are starting to focus in and the guy we're running against, he is -- he's not for anything, he's against everything.... And no, I mean it, it's the weirdest campaign I've ever been engaged in, it's even worse in terms of his behavior than the last time in 2020,' he [said]."

     ~~~ Marie: BTW, see if you think Nikki Haley is a better performer -- at least when she's scripted -- than either Biden or Trump.

Tara Copp & Lolita Baldor of the AP: "The United States and Britain struck 36 Houthi targets in Yemen on Saturday in a second wave of assaults meant to further disable Iran-backed groups that have relentlessly attacked American and international interests in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war. But Washington once more did not directly target Iran as it tries to find a balance between a forceful response and intensifying the conflict.... The Houthi targets were in 13 different locations and were struck by U.S. F/A-18 fighter jets from the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower aircraft carrier, by British Typhoon FGR4 fighter aircraft and by the Navy destroyers USS Gravely and the USS Carney firing Tomahawk missiles from the Red Sea, according to U.S. officials and the U.K. Defense Ministry." (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ The Washington Post's live updates of developments Sunday in the Israel/Hamas war are here: "Mohammed Al-Bukhaiti, a member of the Houthi political bureau, responded [to Saturday's U.S. & British attacks] by saying the maritime attacks will continue until Israel's assault on Gaza is over, adding that the strikes 'will not go unanswered, and we will meet escalation with escalation.'... U.S. forces struck a Houthi anti-ship cruise missile in Yemen that was 'prepared to launch against ships in the Red Sea,' U.S. Central Command said late Saturday, calling the missile an 'imminent threat' to U.S. Navy ships and commercial vessels." ~~~

     ~~~ CNN's live updates for Sunday are here.

Marianna Sotomayor of the Washington Post: "House Republicans are planning to vote on a bill next week that would give billions in military assistance to Israel and U.S. forces in the region, a measure that is destined to come to a head with a Senate proposal expected to package funding for border security with aiding foreign democracies.... The move comes as the Senate is expected to unveil and vote on a supplemental package this week that would fund new measures to control the historic flow of migrants at the U.S.-Mexico border, while fulfilling President Biden's $106 billion request to also aid Ukraine, Israel and the Indo-Pacific region. House Republicans' surprise announcement to send the Senate a standalone Israel funding bill sets up dueling votes in both chambers...." The NBC News story is here. (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I think Donald Trump has been a Russian asset for years; now I'm wondering if Mike Johnson and his anti-Ukraine, pro-Russian pals in the House are, too.

Tracey Tully & Benjamin Weiser of the New York Times: "On Thursday, a Manhattan judge, at the request of The New York Times and two other news outlets, ordered some ... redactions [in charging papers against Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) to be] removed, making it possible to get a fuller picture of the evidence Mr. Menendez's lawyers are citing to bolster their argument that the indictment against the senator should be dismissed.... Mr. Menendez's lawyers ... argue that overzealous prosecutors are attempting to criminalize normal legislative activity and flouting constitutional protections that are afforded to members of Congress."

Drew Harwell of the Washington Post: "In October 2021..., Donald Trump announced that his media company, the owner of the platform Truth Social, had sealed an incredible deal: a merger with a 'special purpose acquisition company' that would deliver to his firm $300 million....' By then, however, the insider trading by investors in the SPAC, Digital World Acquisition, had already begun.... [Multi-million-dollar profits made by investors in the SPAC, including a 'connected' Russian & Ukrainian night-club owner] caught the attention of federal officials who launched a sprawling investigation into Digital World's investors, the details of which raise questions about how Trump ... ended up committed to a business arrangement that federal agents now allege was undermined from its inception by financial fraud. Trump and Trump Media have not been accused of wrongdoing in the case.... Trump allies have claimed that the SEC's delay in approving the merger proves he's being persecuted by the Biden administration." The story goes on about undercover agents from a number of federal agencies, wiretaps, informants wearing wires, a surreptitious phone-data extraction, vacationing with a girlfriend in Cancún, ties to the Russian mob, moving cash to avoid sanctions on Russians, death threats ("I don't fuck around"), and just all the stuff you would expect to see in a movie that exaggerated dramatic possibilities. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Harwell acts all surprised that Trump got involved with a bunch of fraudsters, some with questionable Eastern European connections. I'll bet you're not. It's what he does. The only part that surprises me is "Trump ... [has] not been accused of wrongdoing...."

Maureen Dowd of the New York Times channels Donald Trump's brainfarts about Taylor Swift. Amusing but way too literate and intelligible. Full sentences, no misspellings, more-or-less connected thoughts. Dowd writes like an adult; Trump's style is more that of an 11-year-old bully with attention deficit disorder and below-grade-level vocabulary. (Also linked yesterday.)

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Northern Ireland. Megan Specia of the New York Times: "... for the first time, a Sinn Fein politician [-- Michelle O'Neill --] holds Northern Ireland's top political office [-- first minister --] a landmark moment for the party and for the broader region as a power-sharing government is restored. The first minister role had previously always been held by a unionist politician committed to remaining part of the United Kingdom.... But the story of Sinn Fein's transformation -- from a fringe party that was once the I.R.A.'s political wing, to a political force that won the most seats in Northern Ireland's 2022 elections -- is also the story of a changing political landscape and the results of the 1998 Good Friday Agreement, which ended the decades-long sectarian conflict known as the Troubles.... It is not yet clear what a Sinn Fein first minister will mean for the hopes of those who want to reunite the island after a century of separation."