The Commentariat -- October 21, 2016
FYI. Ali Breland of the Hill: "A massive denial of service attack slowed major websites to a crawl Friday morning. DynDNS, a tool that helps helps users access websites via simple domain names like Google.com instead of by their IP addresses, suffered a distributed denial of service (DDoS) attack that took down some of its services. Because of the attack, many sites that use Dyn — including Twitter, Reddit and Spotify — reportedly experienced latency or were not accessible.Dyn said Friday morning that has resolved the attack. The attack had primarily affected the U.S. East Coast, according the DNS provider’s status page." CW: If Donald Trump doesn't blame Hillary Clinton for shutting down his Twitter account, I'll eat my new Nasty Woman bumper sticker.
Presidential Race
Nate Silver: "Clinton Probably Finished Off Trump [Wednesday] Night.... Clinton went into the final presidential debate on Wednesday with a lead of about 7 percentage points over Donald Trump. And according to the only two scientific polls we’ve seen, voters thought that Clinton won the debate.... The morning headlines, which focused overwhelmingly on Trump’s refusal to say whether he’ll accept the election results, are potentially worse for Trump than the debate itself." -- CW ...
... Rasmussen Report: "The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey of Likely U.S. Voters [CW: which consistently, & often inaccurately, favors Republicans over Democrats] finds Trump with a 43% to 41% lead over his Democratic rival. Five percent (5%) favor Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, while Green Party nominee Jill Stein earns three percent (3%) support. Another three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided." -- CW ...
... The USC/Los Angeles Times' daily tracking poll, which has showed Trump leading in general election polling most of the time, has Trump up by one point today. ...
... The New York Times' Upshot, which tracks chances of each candidates' winning based on likely Electoral College votes, "suggests that Hillary Clinton is favored to win the presidency [by 93% to 7%], based on the latest state and national polls. A victory by Mr. Trump remains possible...." -- CW
It's amazing I’m up here after Donald, I didn’t think he’d be OK with a peaceful transition of power. And Donald, after listening to your speech, I will also enjoy listening to Mike Pence deny you ever gave it. -- Hillary Clinton, at the Al Smith dinner, Thursday ...
... Hillary Clinton roast Donald Trump (and Rudy!) at the Al Smith dinner:
The president told me to stop whining, but I have to say the media is more biased this year than ever before. You want the proof? Michelle Obama gives a speech and everyone loves it, it’s fantastic, they think she’s absolutely great. My wife Melania gives the exact same speech and people get on her case. I don’t get it, I don’t know why. -- Donald Trump at the Al Smith dinner
... Whatever else Donald Trump said at the dinner is here (link fixed). ...
... Ben Kamisar & Harper Neidig of the Hill: "Donald Trump's appearance at Thursday night's charity event took a tough turn as the crowd repeatedly booed the GOP nominee for his sharp-edged jokes about his rival Hillary Clinton." -- CW ...
... Jenna Johnson of the Washington Post: Donald Trump's speech at the Al Smith dinner "might as well have been a eulogy for his presidential campaign.... At one point, he wondered aloud if the crowd was booing him or Clinton, to which someone in the crowd answered: 'You!'” -- CW ...
... Cristiano Lima of Politico: "Hillary Clinton's allies are blasting Donald Trump for attacking the Democratic nominee at New York's Al Smith dinner on Thursday night, an off-key speech that prompted a chorus of boos from those in attendance.... The white-tie charity dinner at the Waldorf Astoria in Manhattan, which benefits Roman Catholic charities, quickly devolved into an insult comedy special when Trump began ripping Clinton for being 'corrupt' and insinuating that she hated Catholics. The dinner is usually a light-hearted affair, but Trump used the occasion to let fly many of the attack lines he uses on the stump." -- CW ...
... For contrast, see 2012 remarks by Mitt Romney here & President Obama here.
Eric Geller of Politico: "Hillary Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta’s Gmail account was hacked by the same Russian intelligence-linked hackers that breached the DNC and the DCCC, researchers confirmed Thursday, spurring Clinton's team to immediately lash out at Donald Trump over his ongoing reluctance to blame Moscow for the spate of election-related hacks. The GOP nominee is now President Vladimir Putin's 'puppet,' said Clinton's top foreign policy adviser Jake Sullivan, who added that the latest findings are proof that the Kremlin 'is trying to help Donald Trump. It's time for Trump to tell the American people what he knew about these hacks and when he knew it,' Sullivan said." -- CW
Paul Krugman writes a love letter to Hillary: "... let’s dispel with this fiction that Hillary Clinton is only where she is through a random stroke of good luck. She’s a formidable figure, and has been all along." CW: Krugman thinks voters would not have fallen for, say, Marco Rubio. Sorry, but enough of them fell for George W. Bush that, along with a little help from the Supremes, Bush the Ignorant beat Al Gore, who was nearly as policy-smart as Clinton. -- CW
Farah Stockman of the New York Times: "In her debate on Wednesday with emerged as the clarion-voiced advocate for women whom many liberal women had been longing for — especially the younger voters she had largely left cold throughout the Democratic primaries.... Perhaps the biggest boost she received, however, was one that neither she nor any army of political operatives could have engineered: when Mr. Trump interjected, 'What a nasty woman,' as Mrs. Clinton was discussing and taxes. Overnight, his insult became a battle cry for Mrs. Clinton’s partisans — including many whose passions she had not yet stirred." -- CW
, for the first timeWashington Post Editors: "... it is time to point out another reason Ms. Clinton is winning: She is earning it. She and her campaign have remained disciplined and even-keeled through tempests large and small.... It is not easy to stand on a stage for 90 minutes and parry words with an opponent, moderators and town-hall invitees; still less is it easy to do so while keeping one’s cool amid sleazy provocations and unpredictable insults from Mr. Trump. Through it all, Ms. Clinton has stayed focused on issues, laying out a program for the country that we don’t accept in every particular but that is well within the broad mainstream of plausible policy alternatives. Perhaps most important, she has kept her rhetoric civil and inclusive, in the face of an opponent bent on trashing the norms of democratic discourse." -- CW...
...Ezra Klein explains the importance of Hillary Clinton's prep work and its effects on the debates by bedeviling "Donald". Pretty good. --safari
Krissah Thompson of the Washington Post: "... after a rousing speech last week in New Hampshire in which she passionately renounced Republican Donald Trump, and another in Arizona on Thursday making the case for Clinton’s vision for the presidency, [Michelle] Obama has demonstrated an ability to do what Clinton herself has struggled with for much of her campaign: explain why voters should vote for her.... The first lady has shown a willingness to pitch in wherever Clinton needs her — including a speech in the traditionally red state of Arizona, where Obama’s appearance reflected the campaign’s growing ambitions for a landslide victory on Nov. 8." -- CW
When you try to sow the seeds of doubt in people’s minds about our elections, that undermines our democracy. You’re doing the work of our adversaries for them. -- President Obama, at a Miami rally, Thursday ...
... Alan Rappeport & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: " insisted on Thursday that he would not cede the right to contest the outcome of the presidential election, even as Democrats and Republicans expressed concern that his position threatened to upend America’s tradition of peaceful power transfers. But in a small gesture of civility, he suggested that he would not dispute the result if the outcome of the race is clear. Mr. Trump’s reluctance to pledge absolutely that he would honor the election outcome follows a rocky performance in the third and last presidential debate.... On Thursday, Mr. Trump continued to rally his supporters with conspiracy theories about how the race was rigged against him, but he did make clear that there was one result that he would not challenge under any circumstance. 'I will totally accept the results of this great and historic presidential election — if I win,' Mr. Trump said to cheers at a rally in Delaware, Ohio." -- CW
Hahahahahaha. Trump Allies Insist He Respects Democracy. Also, the world is flat. Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump’s allies are furiously trying to neutralize his nuclear statement that he may not accept the outcome of the presidential election, saying he simply wants to make sure there’s not blatant fraud, while claiming Hillary Clinton is the one undermining basic democratic principles. Drowning in headlines highlighting — and editorial boards rebuking — Trump's unprecedented refusal and reversal to say he will abide by political norms, his campaign all but ignored the menacing admission. 'Donald Trump clearly won the debate,' Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway declared in an interview with 'Fox and Friends.' 'With respect to the rigged system and the certification of results, he basically is saying that until he knows — you can lay out any hypothetical — until he knows the results, they’re certified and verified, he’s not going to completely concede an unknown.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Akhilleus: Soooo....he respects democracy, but democracy itself is some kind of unknown and he'll let us know later whether it passes the Trump Test (i.e., he wins no matter what). And...it's all Hillary's fault, whatever it is. Very adult. ...
... CW: If you know anyone who was shocked, shocked by Donald Trump's flouting of Constitutional principles & bedrock traditions, you may want to direct them to Charles Pierce: "It has been an article of faith for the entire Republican Party for a quarter-century now that any elected Democratic president is prima facie illegitimate. Trump is just putting a layer of narcissistic varnish on the bucket containing all the historical deplorables. Further, the history of the country is replete with efforts, some of them violent, by politicians to avoid 'respecting' the results of election.... Donald Trump is just being a little cruder about things than many of our television historians would like. Democracy is not a bedtime story, but the monsters within it are very, very real." -- CW
Historian Eric Foner and profressor Eddie Glaude put Drumpf's rise into historical perspective and says he is the logical conclusion of the GOP's increasing extremism. They are one and the same.--safari
Tim Egan: Donald Trump's "debate-night threat, holding the validity of the election itself hostage, is no surprise. Trump is bereft of patriotism, and seems to hate the country he wants to lead. He’s been talking down this nation and its most cherished institutions throughout his campaign. Time and again, he would rather defend Russia than the United States." -- CW
Josh Israel of Think Progress: "In Wednesday’s presidential debate, Donald Trump claimed that new videos proved that Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama had 'hired people' and 'paid them $1,500' to 'be violent, cause fights, [and] do bad things' at Trump rallies. He was referring to videos released this week by conservative activist James O’Keefe that purport to show pro-Clinton activists boasting of their efforts to bait Trump supporters into violent acts. The videos offer no evidence that Clinton or Obama were aware of or behind the alleged dirty tricks.... Trump neglected, however, to mention ... [that his] own controversial foundation ... gave $10,000 to [O'Keefe's] Project Veritas. Trump, who claimed in the same debate that Hillary Clinton 'shouldn’t be allowed to run' for president 'based on what she did with e-mails and so many other things,' was funding a convicted criminal." -- CW
Around the Bend, Starring Donald Trump. David Taintor of NBC News: "Donald Trump accused Hillary Clinton of having advance notice of the debate questions, a claim for which he offered no evidence. 'Why didn't Hillary Clinton announce that she was inappropriately given the debate questions -- she secretly used them! Crooked Hillary,' Trump tweeted Thursday morning. Akhilleus: Trump offers no evidence for a whackadoodle fantasy claim? Nevah! What's next, she was using Jedi mind tricks to control Chris Wallace? (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
What this shows is Trump doesn’t know a damn thing about military strategy. -- Jeff McCausland, retired Army colonel & former dean at the Army War College in Carlisle, Pa. ...
... Eric Schmitt of the New York Times: "In Wednesday night’s debate, Mr. Trump’s armchair generalship revealed a fundamental lack of understanding of Iraqi politics, military warfare — and even some of the most famous campaigns commanded by MacArthur and Patton.... There are many good reasons to foreshadow an impending ground offensive, like Mosul, mainly to reduce civilian casualties, isolate the enemy and instill fear within its ranks, military scholars and retired commanders said." -- CW
excoriated the American-backed Iraqi military offensive to recapture Mosul from the Islamic State, saying it had forfeited 'the element of surprise' and allowed militant leaders to slip away. 'Douglas MacArthur, George Patton spinning in their graves when they see the stupidity of our country,' Mr. Trump added, invoking two of the greatest American commanders from . Actually, probably not, according to some military historians and senior officers, who said on Thursday thatPam Belluck of the New York Times: "In the presidential debate Wednesday night, rip the baby out of the womb in the ninth month, on the final day.' Doctors say the scenario Mr. Trump described does not occur. 'That is not happening in the United States,' said Dr. Aaron B. Caughey, chairman of obstetrics and gynecology at Oregon Health and Science University. 'It is, of course, such an absurd thing to say,' he said. 'I’m unaware of anyone that’s terminating a pregnancy a few days prior to delivery of a normal pregnancy.'” -- CW ...
... assert[ed] that under current abortion law, 'You can take the baby and...
Laura Dimon and Larry McShane of New York Daily News: "Donald Trump’s latest accuser, with tears streaming down her face, charged the White House hopeful with a U.S. Open groping nearly two decades ago. Wellness expert Karena Virginia alleged Thursday that the billionaire tennis fan touched her breast after making a lecherous comment about her looks — to the entertainment of his male entourage. 'I was in shock,' she recounted at a Manhattan news conference about their 1998 encounter at the tennis championships. 'He said, "Don’t you know who I am?" I felt intimidated and powerless. I said, "Yes.’” Akhilleus. Et maintenant, le deluge. Wonder if Melania [Trump] is thinking about some kind of apology now. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
When Paul LePage Calls You Stoopid.... Madeline Conway of Politico: "Even Paul LePage, the controversial governor of Maine who has drawn comparisons to Donald Trump for his loud rhetoric and habit of disparaging the press, is harping on the Republican nominee for his refusal to commit to conceding if he loses the November election. 'Not accepting the results, I think, is just a stupid comment,' LePage said on a Maine radio station on Thursday, responding to Trump’s comments at the third presidential debate. 'I mean, c’mon. Get over yourself.'” -- CW ...
I didn't like the outcome of the 2008 election. But I had a duty to concede, and I did so without reluctance. A concession isn't just an exercise in graciousness. It is an act of respect for the will of the American people, a respect that is every American leader's first responsibility. — Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. ...
... The AP publishes statements made by some politicians regarding Donald Trump's refusal to say he would accept the results of the election unless he wins.
Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Amy Chozick & Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: "In the third and final presidential debate, Mrs. Clinton outmaneuvered Mr. Trump with a surprising new approach: his. Flipping the script, she turned herself into his relentless tormentor, condescending to him repeatedly and deploying some of his own trademark tactics against him. The relatively subdued and largely defanged Republican nominee who showed up onstage at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas, was a different figure from the candidate America has watched for the past 16 months. Mr. Trump was, for much of the night, oddly calm and composed. He minimized his name-calling. His interruptions were relatively rare for him." ...
... CW: Really?? Let's Ask Steve. ...
... ** Steve M.: The Times analysis looks like Chozick's "application for Maureen Dowd's job." The Times report doesn't reflect "... what happened. Trump was more subdued than expected, especially in the first twenty minutes or so of the debate, but then the tranquilizers wore off his temper resurfaced and he was his old self again. And Clinton is not like Trump. Clinton doesn't menace. Clinton doesn't try to intimidate. An opponent who was minimally socialized could have had an exchange with her that would have been called 'sharp' or 'heated' or 'barbed,' but wouldn't have descended into a pre-adolescent battle for dominance. Trump, however, always keeps it at the grade-school level." -- CW ...
... Read on. Steve explains part of what Trump means by a "rigged election": ... the election is rigged because the press publishes stories he doesn't like.... it's a rigged election because people who have died or moved are still on the voter rolls where they used to vote -- never mind the fact that there's no evidence that "millions" of people try to take advantage of this. And it's a rigged election because Hillary Clinton was allowed to run for president.... No election that includes Clinton could be fair. No election in which the press criticizes Trump could be fair." -- CW ...
...Here's the video I tried to link yesterday. Ari Berman of The Nation gives us a RealityCheck and points the finger of vote rigging at the Republican party. He paints a pretty comprehensive picture about their different strategies of disenfranchisment. Sorry Marie for the link trouble yesterday. Hopefully this one works. --safari
Annals of Journalism, Ctd. Brad Plumer of Vox: "... none of the [debate] moderators asked about global warming at all. Not in the first presidential debate. Not in the vice presidential debate. Not in the second presidential debate.... Not in the third presidential debate. Hillary Clinton name-checked the topic, occasionally, but that was it. Humanity is departing from the stable climatic conditions that allowed civilization to thrive, yet the most powerful nation on Earth can’t set aside five minutes to discuss." -- CW ...
... Joe Romm of Think Progress: Ditto.
(Today's Constitutional Question: Say, what happens if Trump -- who likes to sue everybody (including his underpaid, undocumented Polish workers) -- sues like 37 states for rigging their elections & the suits find their way to the Supreme Court? [Answer Help: Chief Johnnie Balls-and-Strikes does not get to break a tie.])
... AND John Schwartz of the New York Times plans a social-interaction test of Trump's debate tactic: "Today's experiment: During conversations with people around the office, I'll just spontaneously interject 'WRONG' and see how things go." -- CW
Stephen Battaglio of the Los Angeles Times: "Fox News anchor Chris Wallace landed a permanent place on the presidential debate highlight reel when ... Donald Trump said he would not commit to accepting the results of the election.... 'I have been covering Trump for a year and half,' Wallace said Thursday. 'I’ve learned to not be surprised by anything.' But the veteran Washington journalist and first-time presidential debate moderator knew that the magnitude of the response required him to frame the question a second time. 'I thought, "You need to put this in historical context," which is why I asked a follow-up question about one of the long traditions of democracy — the idea of the peaceful transfer of power and that we accept the results of the election,' said Wallace. 'I wanted to put it in context so that it was clear that whatever Trump said, folks understood how unprecedented this would be.' For Wallace, it was one of the debate highlights that earned him near unanimous kudos on social media....” -- CW
Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "Jim Murphy, Donald Trump’s national political director, is no longer playing an active role on the campaign, according to three sources briefed on the move – a troubling development for the Republican nominee coming just 19 days before the election. 'I have not resigned but for personal reasons have had to take a step back from the campaign,' Murphy said in a statement to Politico. He did not elaborate on the reasons for his departure. Several Trump aides said that Murphy has been conspicuously absent in recent days as the campaign mobilizes for the final push.... It’s the latest departure in a campaign rife with turnover." -- CW
Congressional Races
Philip Rucker & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "As [Donald Trump] ... reeled from a turbulent performance in the final debate here in Las Vegas, his party’s embattled senators and House members scrambled to protect their seats and preserve the GOP’s congressional majorities against what Republicans privately acknowledge could be a landslide victory for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton. With 19 days until the election, the Republican Party is in a state of historic turmoil, encapsulated by Trump’s extraordinary debate declaration that he would leave the nation in 'suspense' about whether he would recognize the results from an election he has claimed will be 'rigged' or even 'stolen.'” -- CW ...
... For Example. Kelsey Snell of the Washington Post: "Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) is eight points behind her Democratic rival, Gov. Maggie Hassan, in a race that could determine whether Republicans will retain control of the Senate, according to a poll from WMUR and the University of New Hampshire released Thursday.... Trump is trailing Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton by 15 points in New Hampshire, according to a WMUR poll released Wednesday." -- CW
Greg Jaffe of the Washington Post: "With presidential pre-election polls heavily favoring Democrat Hillary Clinton, President Obama aimed his attacks Thursday at Sen. Marco Rubio and other Republican officials who have supported GOP nominee Donald Trump, despite his controversial campaign and derogatory remarks about immigrants and women.... Much of Obama’s speech was focused on questioning the honesty and ethics of Republican politicians who have condemned Trump but still back him. He was especially critical of Rubio (R-Fla.), who is in a tough battle for the state's Senate seat with Democrat Patrick Murphy." -- CW
John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Bernie Sanders can still apparently pack a punch when it comes to fundraising. The senator from Vermont raised just shy of $2 million in two days online this week for 13 like-minded U.S. Senate and House candidates, according to his campaign committee." -- CW
Other News & Views
Dara Lind of Vox: "... 'law and order' patriots don’t actually think legitimacy is inherent in American laws and government. It’s dependent on whether white people want to see it as legitimate or not. When government acts in accordance with their desires — when it helps them, and especially acts against nonwhites — 'rule of law' and 'law and order' become universal values, and nonwhites are being justifiably punished for violating them. But when government acts to protect nonwhite Americans, it’s seen as a reason to question the legitimacy of the government itself. It’s not really about law. It’s about power. And in America, that power has historically been white supremacy." -- CW
Ben Kamisar of the Hill: "WikiLeaks has published several emails sent to and from then-Sen. Barack Obama in October 2008, just before he won his first presidential election. The emails sent to John Podesta, Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton's campaign chairman ... are from bobama@ameritech.net, a domain that has never been publicly linked to the president. The email dump is part of the massive hack of Democratic officials and its campaign apparatus.... The emails that include Obama are fairly mundane...." -- CW
Burgess Everett of Politico: "Arizona Republican Sen. Jeff Flake has maintained for months that Republicans should take up Merrick Garland's Supreme Court nomination if it looks like the presidential contest is a lost cause for the GOP. It's looking about that time, Flake said in an interview on Thursday. 'I said if we were in a position like we were in in '96 and we pretty much knew the outcome that we ought to move forward. But I think we passed that awhile ago,' Flake said. 'If Hillary Clinton is president-elect then we should move forward with hearings in the lame duck. That's what I'm encouraging my colleagues to do." The political calculus is straightforward: Better to deal with Garland now and avoid swallowing a more liberal nominee from Hillary Clinton." -- CW
Beyond the Beltway
Marc Tracy of the New York Times: "The University of Louisville on Thursday confirmed that the N.C.A.A. had formally charged current and former staff members in its men’s basketball program, including Coach Rick Pitino, with major rules violations related to a scandal in which a university employee provided prostitutes who performed sexual acts with players and recruits." -- CW
Way Beyond
Turing's Law. Sewell Chan of the New York Times: "Decades after homosexuality was decriminalized in it would posthumously pardon thousands of gay and bisexual men who were convicted, in essence, of having or seeking gay sex. Since 2012, men with such convictions who are still alive have been able to apply to have their names cleared. The law providing for the pardons ... is named for Alan Turing, the mathematician who made a major contribution to Britain in World War II by cracking Germany’s Enigma coding machine and was a central figure in the development of the computer. Turing was convicted on charges of homosexuality in 1952 and committed suicide in 1954. The government apologized in 2009 for its treatment of him, and in 2013, Queen Elizabeth II formally pardoned him." -- CW
, the government announced on Thursday thatPhillipines' Own Donald Trump Obsequiously Sidles up to China. Philippine President announced his military and economic 'separation' from the United States. 'America has lost now. I've realigned myself in your ideological flow,' he said at a business forum in Beijing on Thursday. 'And maybe I will also go to Russia to talk to [Vladimir] Putin and tell him that there are three of us against the world: China, Philippines and Russia. It's the only way.' Akhilleus: Anyone wondering what America under Trump might look like, Duterte offers a good clue. A lawless, undisciplined, ignorant, self-aggrandizing, authoritarian thug. Trump will no doubt play Duterte's entreaties to China as yet another of his favorite dictators who doesn't like America. Damn! (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
In a state visit aimed at cozying up to Beijing as he pushes away from Washington, the