The Commentariat -- Sept. 27, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Nate Silver: "Democrats woke up on Monday to a spate of bad polls for Hillary Clinton, which brought Donald Trump to perhaps his closest position yet in the Electoral College... Clinton bested Trump in the first presidential debate according to a variety of metrics, and the odds are that she'll gain in head-to-head polls over Trump in the coming days." -- CW

Josh Barro, a moderate conservative, of Business Insider: "... Clinton got the best of Trump at Monday's debate. Prediction markets moved toward Clinton during the debate.... TV news focus groups said Clinton clearly won.... Trump's own surrogates won't argue forcefully that he won.... A CNN panelist who gave the win to Clinton noted, approvingly, that she 'took control of the situation.'... Trump skipped a post-debate victory party he was supposed to attend and went straight home.... Maybe he was sad, or was feeling low-energy, or lacked the stamina to greet his supporters." -- CW

Jonathan Chait: "Before the first presidential debate, a conventional wisdom had formed that Donald Trump merely needed to appear 'presidential,' which the campaign media had defined as 'non-sociopathic.' He failed to clear that bar.... The final exchange of the debate was the most devastating. Clinton lacerated Trump for his dehumanization of women -- the kind of sexualization that offends social conservatives and social liberals alike.... Clinton ... maintained her composure and her dignity, something no Republican who confronted (or was bullied by) Trump in the primary debates managed to do. She had facts at her disposal, she apologized for her poor choice of email systems, and she conveyed that she is sane and competent. The contrast between an obviously and eminently qualified public servant and a ranting bully was as stark as any presidential debate in American history." -- CW ...

... Claire Landsbaum of New York: "In 1996 -- the year Donald Trump took over the pageant -- Alicia Machado was crowned Miss Universe. After her victory, she gained weight. Trump ... reportedly called her 'Miss Piggy' and 'Miss Housekeeping' (because she's from Venezuela) and even forced her to work out in front of hordes of press. Hillary Clinton brought up Trump's comments about Machado at the tail end of Monday night's presidential debate, using them to illustrate Trump's attitude toward women. Then her campaign released a well-timed ad featuring Machado, who talks about how Trump called her 'fat' and 'ugly.'... If you thought all this would cause Trump to rethink his fat-shaming comments, you would be wrong. This morning, during a phone interview on Fox & Friends, Trump doubled down on his insults, calling Machado's weight 'a real problem.' -- CW

Ezra Klein: "The first presidential debate featured a man who didn't know what he was talking about repeatedly shouting over a woman who was extraordinarily prepared. The debate was a collision between Donald Trump's politics of dominance and Hillary Clinton's politics of preparation. Clinton's politics of preparation won." Also, Klein provides a few good examples of Trump's word-salad, stream-of-unconsciousness answers. -- CW

Tom Sullivan in Hullabaloo: "The Republican candidate who boasts at rallies he will negotiate the best deals, great deals, tre-men-dous deals with world leaders last night could not negotiate 90 minutes against an American one. Hillary Clinton demonstrated she is a leader with knowledge, experience and intelligence that far outstrips Trump's. Within the first half hour, dry mouth set in and Trump had to keep sipping water to stay lubricated. (It didn't make his answers any more coherent.) At one point, he seemed to wipe a bead of sweat from his upper lip. But it was the regular, audible sniffing like a cokehead that started early and continued through most of the debate that had Twitter buzzing. Likely, Donald Trump is allergic to being around strong women." -- CW ...

... Frank Rich enjoyed Clinton's near "pitch-perfect delivery" vs. the Trumpdebacle debate style, including this: "To the vast delight of the internet, Howard Dean tried to explain this performance by tweeting: 'Notice Trump sniffing all the time. Coke user?'" CW: Dean was a family practice doctor, so who nose? Dean might be right.

Trump Points (very short) Fingers After Debate. Could be last debate. Kyle Cheney of Politico. "Donald Trump's long night on Long Island morphed into a morning of finger-pointing Tuesday, as he revived his brashest personal style to explain an erratic debate performance against Hillary Clinton... Trump's camp is already hinting he's considering taking a pass on the next debate. [Rudy] Giuliani told reporters Monday night that he'd advise Trump to drop out of the next meeting because the moderators wouldn't be fair...Akhilleus

My Mic was bad! No, really! Trump's latest conspiracy theory: Alex Griswold of Mediaite. "According to the Associated Press, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump immediately told reporters following Monday's presidential debate that there was something wrong with his microphone during his one-on-one with Hillary Clinton. Trump visited the media spin room after the Monday night debate and said, 'They gave me a defective mic!' AP reported. He said he 'wonder(s), was that on purpose?'" Akhilleus: Reminds me of a kid who played on my high school baseball team who, every time he struck out (and he struck out a LOT) would look at his bat, incredulously, as if it had somehow caused the latest embarrassment. Sure, kid. Must've been the bat.

Trumped in Maine. Paul Lepage's Binders of Black Drug Dealers. Kelly Weil of the Daily Beast: "Governor Paul LePage, Maine's miniature Donald Trump, has said over 90 percent of the state's drug trafficking comes from black and Hispanic dealers. But his own binder full of alleged drug dealers proves him wrong...contrary to LePage's claims, '90 percent' of the alleged dealers do not appear to be black or Hispanic. In fact...of the 92 alleged dealers pictured, more than half appear to be white." Akhilleus: Lepage's response? Something, something, something, er, he didn't actually mean it quite that way. BUT he still thinks its a capital idea to shoot black people suspected of being drug dealers. '"You've been in uniform?' he asked a fellow Republican legislator during a press conference. 'You shoot at the enemy... and the enemy right now...are people of color or people of Hispanic origin.'" But, just like his hero Trump, Lepage has never been in uniform either. Nonetheless, calling for the peremptory execution of black people, has Trump has done in the past, is just the thing to cure all ills. Whatever happened to the good old days when binders were full of women?

*****

CW: I haven't been able to post this morning because of a computer-generated emergency! but I'll be back at about 10 am ET if all goes well from here on in.

Presidential Race

Philip Rucker & Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump aggressively blamed the nation's chronic problems on Hillary Clinton yet found himself mostly on the defensive in their first debate here Monday night as she accused him of racist behavior, hiding potential conflicts of interest and 'stiffing' those who helped build his business empire.... Where Clinton was measured in her attacks, Trump was a feisty and sometimes undisciplined aggressor. He regularly interrupted Clinton, as well as the moderator, 'NBC Nightly News' anchor Lester Holt, and raised his voice. At times, Trump delivered rambling, heated and defensive answers." CW: This is a straight news report.

Gail Collins: "Trump lost. Really, I think we can work under the assumption that when a candidate is accused of cheering for the housing crisis, it's not a good plan to reply: 'That's called business, by the way.' There had been some speculation that all Trump needed to do was speak in complete sentences to beat expectations, and if that was the bar, the man did great. When Hillary Clinton suggested he might be withholding his federal returns because he never paid any taxes, he responded: 'That makes me smart.' Complete sentence." -- CW

Josh Marshall of TPM: "Clinton clearly went into this debate ... looking to hit [Trump] with a rat-tat-tat series of taunts and jabs to see if she could get him to lose his cool and throw him off his game. It ended up happening a lot more quickly than I expected. No more than fifteen minutes in he was getting visibly angry. And he stayed that way for the next hour plus. From maybe a half hour into the debate Clinton had almost entirely seized the initiative. She was attacking while he responded, sometimes angrily, sometimes with new attacks and very often by doubling down on demonstrable falsehoods he's been pilloried for for months.... Just a mix of easily demonstrable lies and nonsensical statements." -- CW

Two Americas. Brian Beutler of the New Republic argues that no debate will make a difference to voters in such a polarized nations. CW: For what it's worth, I think these debates can make a difference to low-information voters who have never seen how Donald Trump behaves. In the two-shot that dominated the debate, more often than not, Clinton looked serious or amused; Trump, IMO, looked angry or annoyed, or fidgety most of the time Clinton spoke, when he wasn't interrupting her. As Gloria wonders (satirically) in today's Comments, "Who'd vote for that face?!"

Josh Voorhees of Slate: "Donald Trump attempted to bully his opponent, the moderator, and reality on Monday night. Hillary Clinton fumbled at first but grew increasingly confident as her opponent's concentration waned. The question, then, is whether any significant number of American voters will change their minds after watching a 90-minute encapsulation of a general election that's been dragging on for months."...

... CW: During primary season, a number of commentators noted that Trump seemed to lose energy during the debates. Eventually, he refused to do the primary debates at all because they were "boring." Apparently the same thing happened during his debate preps. One insider said the team had to move the location of the sessions because there were "too many distractions" at the original venue. That is, Donald Trump does not have the ability to concentrate long enough to make the critical decisions a president must make. The reason he accuses Hillary Clinton's of lacking "stamina" is that he doesn't have enough stamina himself to handle the presidency.

Two Americas. Brian Beutler of the New Republic argues that no debate will make a difference to voters in such a polarized nations. CW: For what it's worth, I think these debates can make a difference to low-information voters who have never seen how Donald Trump behaves. In the two-shot that dominated the debate, more often than not, Clinton looked serious or amused; Trump, IMO, looked angry or annoyed, or fidgety most of the time Clinton spoke, when he wasn't interrupting her. As Gloria wonders (satirically) in today's Comments, "Who'd vote for that face?!"

Dana Milbank: "Donald Trump was trying very hard to be on his best behavior.... Within minutes, he was hectoring and interrupting Clinton when she spoke, glowering, pursing his lips, shaking his head and interjecting one-word retorts.... Soon, Trump was hurling playground taunts.... Trump was louder and nastier. But Clinton wasn't bullied. She continued talking when he tried to talk over her. Again and again, she forced him to explain himself -- his business bankruptcies, his refusal to release his taxes. Trump replied with a series of interruptions and retorts." -- CW

Emily Crockett of Vox: "... Trump interrupted Clinton 25 times in the first 26 minutes of the debate. Moderator Lester Holt interrupted Clinton 15 times, bringing the total to 40.... Trump started loudly talking over Clinton and at times interrupted her with snide, even childish-sounding remarks.... Many commentators were expecting it would cost Trump dearly if he came off as too domineering or bullying -- and that he would moderate his style as a result. Apparently not." -- CW

Eliza Collins of USA Today: "Four years ago Green party candidate Jill] Stein was arrested for disorderly conduct and handcuffed to a chair at the Hofstra University debate. She tried her luck again this year and has already been escorted off campus." -- CW

Tonight's presidential debate begins at 9 pm ET. Brian Barrett of Wired lists many of the media outlets that are airing it. -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)

Kelsey Sutton of Politico: "Bloomberg TV will conduct on-screen fact checks of statements made by both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton during Monday night's debate, Politico has confirmed. The channel's decision to conduct an on-screen fact-check sets Bloomberg apart from the other major TV networks, none of whom have committed to doing on-screen fact checks during the debate. Most will leave the fact-checking to segments in the post-debate analysis coverage." CW: Thanks to contributor Diane for the lead. I don't know where Bloomberg is on my channel lineup, but I have a handy remote that allows me to say "Bloomberg" & the TV cuts to the channel.

Carolyn Ryan of the New York Times: "... The New York Times has assembled a team of 18 fact-checkers for Monday night, drawing on the expertise of some of our most seasoned reporters.... We will also provide continually updated highlights for those joining the debate after it has begun." ...

     ... Update. The Times' "real-time analysis" is here. At 8:32 pm ET, reporters are already chatting. The blow-by-blow is here. The Times' fact-check is here. The fact-check is worth at least a quick read. -- CW

"Post-Truth Politics." Charles Pierce: "What I am fairly sure of now is that there probably is no way for Hillary Rodham Clinton to win the debate." Pierce revisits what the Al Gore during the 2000 campaign. -- CW

TPM: "Republican National Committee Chairman Reince Priebus further blurred this surreal election year's line between reality and reality TV on Monday, suggesting that Donald Trump's tenure as a host on 'The Apprentice' prepared him to face off against Hillary Clinton in the first presidential debate.... 'He did a great job in our primary debates. He's also been through, what, 14 seasons, season finales....'" -- CW

Judd Legum of Think Progress gives Politico the well-deserved prize for "the worst fact-check ever." CW: This is exactly what I meant when I argued against having a team of fact-checkers sit in on the debates & sound a buzzer every time they "instantly" decided one of the debaters had lied.

Jonathan Chait: "A strange air of unreality has hung over the presidential campaign, in which a candidate who poses a mortal risk to the sanctity of American democracy and world peace has a disconcertingly high chance of winning.... Nate Silver has called the race close to a tie.... You should be freaked out." -- CW

Yuuge Tax Cheat. David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump's charitable foundation has received approximately $2.3 million from companies that owed money to Trump or one of his businesses but were instructed to pay Trump's tax-exempt foundation instead, according to people familiar with the transactions. In cases where he diverted his own income to his foundation, tax experts said, Trump would still likely be required to pay taxes on the income. Trump has refused to release his personal tax returns. His campaign said he paid income tax on one of the donations, but did not respond to questions about the others.... The gifts begin to answer one of the mysteries surrounding the foundation: Why would other people continue giving to Trump's charity when Trump himself gave his last recorded donation in 2008?... The laws governing the diversion of income into a foundation were written, in part, to stop charity leaders from funneling income that should be taxed into a charity and then using that money to benefit themselves. Such violations can bring monetary penalties, the loss of tax-exempt status, and even criminal charges in extreme cases." -- CW ...

... Jim Fallows of the Atlantic: "In my memory of politics, this is the closest thing we have seen to prima facie evidence of financial misconduct since Spiro Agnew had to resign as vice president for accepting cash bribes.... For years, and most recently yesterday on the front page of the New York Times, the affairs of the Clinton Foundation, have been the subject of stories about 'lingering questions,' 'clouds of doubt,' 'images of corruption.' Nothing that has even been alleged about Clinton Foundation finances comes close to what is now on the record about the Trump Foundation." -- CW

Jim Tankersley of the Washington Post: "A new, 30-page analysis of Trump's economic proposals, penned by two of his senior policy advisers and issued Sunday evening by Trump's campaign, provides the most detailed look yet into how Trump envisions his economic plan boosting growth, wages and wealth -- through policies that together defy partisan convention. It demonstrates, in quantifiable terms, that trade policy is as important to Trump's economic promises as tax cuts -- and that if he fails to change the terms of globalization, he will face a huge budget shortfall." -- CW

Other News & Views

Timothy Williams of the New York Times: "The number of murders in the United States increased sharply in 2015, with significant rises in several large cities, according to an annual report released on Monday by the Federal Bureau of Investigation. The 10.8 percent increase in the rate of murders from 2014 to 2015 represented the largest year-to-year jump in at least 20 years, according to the F.B.I. data, but the murder rate remained about half the level from the 1990s, when violent crime reached a modern peak." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

... Ted Sherman & Matt Arco of NJ.com: "The day David Wildstein Mark Sokolich for his refusal to endorse Gov. Chris Christie, he claimed the governor's own campaign manager was already aware of the plan. Testifying for the second day in federal court in the Bridgegate trial, Wildstein said he informed Bill Stepien, who now works for the Trump campaign, that he was moving forward with a ploy to shut down local access lanes at the George Washington Bridge in a scheme of political retaliation targeting the local mayor.... Wildstein also testified he told Port Authority Commissioner William 'Pat' Schuber, considered 'a loyal member' of Gov. Christie's team and an appointee of the governor.... Neither Stepien nor Schuber have been charged ... and both denied Wildstein's assertions." -- CW ...

... Noah Remnick of the New York Times: "Even as details of the plan to shut down access lanes to the [George Washington B]ridge have come into focus through the trial of two top officials in the Christie administration, the chronology of the scheme remains somewhat mysterious. It was about two months [before Bridget Anne Kelly of the governor's office ordered the GWB lane closures], [David] Wildstein said, that Christie officials learned that [Fort Lee Mayor Mark ] Sokolich, a Democrat, was 'no longer on the favored mayor list' after declining to endorse Mr. Christie, a Republican, in his 2013 re-election campaign. Now, it was clear they were looking to exact some retribution. '[Kelly] told me the reason was to send Mayor Sokolich a message,' said Mr. Wildstein, a former top official at the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, which operates the bridge.... 'The purpose was to create as big a traffic jam as possible,' said Mr. Wildstein...." -- CW

Lindsay Ellis, et al., of the Houston Chronicle: "Nathan DeSai ... had two .45 caliber firearms and 2,600 rounds of ammunition as he peppered morning commuters with bullets near the corner of Law and Weslayan in southwest Houston, near upscale West University Place. The troubled Houston lawyer, who shot and wounded seven people, was wearing a vintage military uniform and had a Nazi emblem on him when he was killed by police, officials said." -- CW

Way Beyond

Rick Gladstone & Somini Sengupta of the New York Times: "Undeterred and infuriated by Western accusations of war crimes and barbarity in the aerial assault on Aleppo, the Syrian government and its ally Russia intensively bombed the city in northern Syria on Monday for the fourth consecutive day. Residents and rescuers there described the bombardment as among the worst yet in the five-year war. Both the Kremlin and the Syrian government appeared to harden their position that the United States and its partners had caused the disintegration of a fleeting cease-fire last week." -- CW

Nicholas Casey of the New York Times: "In a Caribbean resort city, far from the jungles where guerrilla battles once raged, the Colombian government and its largest rebel group signed a peace agreement on Monday evening. A large crowd had gathered for the signing ceremony, held in Cartagena, that brought an end to a 52-year-old war with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, whose Marxist insurgency marked the last major war in the Americas." -- CW

Ames Alexander of the Charlotte Observer: "Charlotte-Mecklenburg police did not capture key video footage of last week's fatal shooting of Keith Lamont Scott because a responding officer apparently didn't turn on his body camera until after police had already shot the victim -- a violation of department policy." -- CW ...

... Mark Price of the Charlotte Observer: "The Charlotte man accused of killing a protester Wednesday during a crowded march in uptown has admitted to the shooting, Assistant District Attorney Clayton Jones said in court Monday. Police say Rayquan Borum, 21, shot and killed Justin Carr, 26, during the second night of Charlotte protests that erupted over the police killing of Keith Scott on Tuesday outside an apartment in the University City area. Borum is charged with first degree murder and possession of a firearm by a felon.... It remains unclear if Borum knew the victim." -- CW

The Commentariat -- Sept. 26, 2016

Presidential Race

Tonight's presidential debate begins at 9 pm ET. Brian Barrett of Wired lists many of the media outlets that are airing it. -- CW

Fuddy-Duddies Unaware Donald Trump Is GOP Nominee. Jill Disis and Brian Stelter of CNN: "The Commission on Presidential Debates has some advice for debate moderators this fall: leave the fact-checking to the candidates. The Trump campaign is taking the same position. So are some former moderators, like Jim Lehrer, who has facilitated twelve presidential debates. But many others -- including a wide array of journalists -- want the man moderating Monday night's debate, Lester Holt, to intervene if egregious lies are said on stage." -- CW ...

... E. J. Dionne: "... the Clinton camp wants the moderators to call out the candidates when they lie, while Trump wants to leave this task to his opponent. Never has a candidate signaled as clearly as Trump that he is terrified of fact-checking.... The notion that moderators can take themselves out of the debate is absurd.... If one candidate actually does lie more than the other, moderators who are passive in the face of whoppers place the more honest candidate at a profound disadvantage." -- CW ...

... CW: There's a very easy way moderators can not-fact-check/fact-check the candidate: "But Mr. Trump, you said the opposite last week. Which one is it?" or "But Mr. Trump, the independent Tax Policy Center said would mostly benefit the rich & would cause the national debt to soar. You have 30 seconds to respond."

The Fox & the Hedgehog. John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "In showcasing her knowledge, her experience, her calmness under pressure, and the range of worthwhile programs she has to offer, Clinton could well end up outfoxing her prickly opponent." CW: This optimistic post may sound quaint tomorrow; I hope not.

Paul Krugman: "... anyone who complains that there aren't big new ideas in this campaign simply isn't paying attention. One candidate, at least, has ideas that would make a big, positive difference to millions of American families." -- CW

Steve Coll of the New Yorker: "As this dystopian Presidential campaign enters its final phase, the intermingling of persistent terrorism and resilient Trumpism is painful to contemplate." Trump saber-rattles while Clinton has evidence-based plans to counter domestic terrorism, but the public may be too fearful to opt for sensible. -- CW

     ... Thanks to P.D. Pepe for the reminder.

** "Why Donald Trump Should Not Be President." The New York Times Editors count the ways.

You know, it doesn't really matter what [the media] write as long as you've got a young and beautiful piece of ass. -- Donald Trump, Esquire interview, 1991

... Mary Jordan of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump's threat to seat Gennifer Flowers, who had an extramarital affair with Bill Clinton, in the front row at Monday night's presidential debate focuses new attention on Trump's own history of infidelity and could further weaken his support among female voters.... Trump -- who has been married three times -- separated from his first wife, Ivana, after his affair with Marla Maples became widely known. Trump and Ivana finalized their divorce in 1992. Trump married Maples in December 1993, two months after she gave birth to a daughter.... When he was single, Trump was frequently seen out on the town with different women. He ... publicly boasted about his sex life.... While Trump made the kind of 'media noise' that he loves to create, [Republican strategist Mike] Murphy said, this move was 'typical Trump: all impulse and no strategy.'" -- CW

We're going to rebuild our inner cities because our African American communities are absolutely in the worst shape they've ever been in before. Ever, ever, ever. -- Donald Trump, in Kenansville, N.C., last week ...

... Janell Ross of the Washington Post: "In an interview aired Sunday on ABC's 'This Week,' the manager of Donald Trump's campaign, Kellyanne Conway, chided President Obama for his response to claims by the Republican presidential nominee that life has never "ever" been worse for African Americans than it is today. When asked about Trump's characterization of black life, Obama said, 'I think even an 8-year-old will tell you that whole slavery thing wasn't very good for black people. Jim Crow wasn't very good for black people.'... Conway described Obama's comments as inappropriate and did not address the accuracy of Trump's claim." -- CW ...

... "But Hillary Clinton...." Driftglass focuses his almost weekly review of the Sunday showz on Hugh Hewitt's performance & takeover of the pretend-journialstic NBC News' effort formerly known as Press the Meat. ...

... ... "But Hillary Clinton...." Matthew Watkins of the Texas Tribune: "One day after endorsing Donald Trump for president, Texas U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz refused Saturday to say whether he thinks the Republican nominee is fit to lead the country." -- CW

Other News & Views

Patricia Cohen of the New York Times: "More than seven years after the recession ended, employers are finally being compelled to reach deeper into the pools of untapped labor, creating more jobs, especially among retailers, restaurants and hotels, and paying higher wages to attract workers and meet new minimum wage requirements.... Poverty declined among every group. But African-Americans and Hispanics -- who account for more than 45 percent of those below the poverty line of $24,300 for a family of four in most states -- experienced the largest improvement.... Over all, 2.9 million more jobs were created from 2014 to 2015, helping millions of unemployed people cross over into the ranks of regular wage earners. Many part-time workers increased the number of hours on the job. Wages, adjusted for inflation, climbed." -- CW

Louisa Loveluck & Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "The United States accused Russia of 'barbarism' and war crimes in Syria on Sunday as Moscow's airstrikes over Aleppo pushed a humanitarian crisis there to new depths. The nations sparred verbally at an emergency U.N. Security Council meeting called to demand that Russia rein in its ally, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and halt the blistering attacks on Syria's second city." -- CW

CW: I apologize for not timely embedding President Obama's speech at the opening of the National Museum of African American History & Culture. I had good intentions; thanks to contributor Diane for reminding me to follow thru. How lovely to hear remarks of dignity & hope in this time of our national infamy:

... Mark Landler of the New York Times: "... when Michelle Obama hugged former President George W. Bush on Saturday, at a ceremony to open the National Museum of African American History and Culture, the image quickly took flight online. However one chose to interpret it -- and overinterpretation is a hazard in such exercises -- it became an instant metaphor. Some saw the lost virtue of civility in politics; others, the unlikely friendships that blossom at the rarefied heights of public life. To critics on the left, it was a shameful case of political amnesia by the wife of a president who spent years cleaning up the mess left by his predecessor." -- CW

Remember the Supremes! Jeff Toobin of the New Yorker: "For the first time in decades, there is now a realistic chance that the Supreme Court will become an engine of progressive change rather than an obstacle to it.... The hopes for a liberal Court will begin -- or, just as certainly, end -- with the results on Election Day." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Lindsay Ellis & Dane Schiller of the Houston Chronicle: "Several people have been shot and injured by a shooter in southwest Houston Monday morning. The shooter has now been shot by Houston Police, according to the HPD Twitter page.No information was immediately available on the shooter's current condition." This is a developing story. -- CW

News Ledes

New York Times: "Arnold Palmer, the champion golfer whose full-bore style of play, thrilling tournament victories and magnetic personality inspired an American golf boom, attracted a following known as Arnie's Army and made him one of the most popular athletes in the world, died on Sunday, according to a spokesman for his business enterprises. Palmer was 87." -- CW

Miami Herald: "Miami Marlins pitcher José Fernández, who fled Cuba on a speedboat eight years ago to become one of baseball's dominant players and a hometown hero to fans well beyond the stadium walls, died early Sunday in a violent boat crash off South Beach. He was 24. Two friends were also killed in the accident, which remains under investigation and led Major League Baseball to promptly cancel Sunday's home game against the Atlanta Braves." -- CW

The Commentariat -- Sept. 25, 2016

This Is Heartbreaking. Richard Fausset, et al., of the New York Times: "Under mounting pressure from politicians, community leaders and boisterous protesters who have brought this city's main business district to a near-standstill, the Charlotte police chief on Saturday released body and dashboard camera videos of the fatal police shooting of Keith Lamont Scott, a black resident here. While they do not show everything that happened at the scene, the two released videos appear to show Mr. Scott exiting a white sport-utility vehicle, and backing away from it with his hands at his sides. He did not appear to be acting in a threatening or erratic manner. The police said they had recovered a loaded gun with Mr. Scott's DNA on it, and that he wore an ankle holster. But they did not reveal where they recovered the gun. It was clear from the two angles that he had nothing in his right hand. It was unclear what, if anything, Mr. Scott, who was right-handed, had in his left hand. After Mr. Scott was shot multiple times and fell to the ground, his moans could be heard as officers handcuffed him." Includes video. ...

... CW: No wonder the police didn't want to release the video. This was an unwarranted, unjust killing at the hands of those whose duty it is to protect us.

*****

Presidential Race

Dan Balz & Scott Clement of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump will meet Monday night for their first debate in a virtual dead heat in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.... Likely voters split 46 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for Trump, with Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson at 5 percent and Green Party nominee Jill Stein at 1 percent. Among registered voters, Clinton and Trump are tied at 41 percent, with Johnson at 7 percent and Stein at 2 percent.... Some other national polls currently show Clinton with a slightly larger lead, but on balance, the pre-debate survey averages show the margin in the race in low single digits." CW: The Post team led by Michael Kranish, in a report linked below, detail Trump's "dystopian views" of the state of the country. I too hold a "dystopian view." We live in a country where half the people are at the least ignorant & irresponsible, & at the worst horrible human beings. Until now, that's been a rumor or a "feeling"; now, it's a certainty.

Very "Presidential". David Ferguson of RawStory: "Gennifer Flowers -- a woman with whom former Pres. Bill Clinton had an extramarital affair -- has announced that she is accepting Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump's invitation to sit in the front row of Monday night's presidential debate. BuzzFeed News reported Saturday that Trump posted on Twitter that he would like to see Ms. Flowers in the audience on Monday. Within hours, Flowers announced that she would be happy to be there. The move by the Trump team appears to indicate that Trump will be bringing up former Pres. Clinton's marital infidelities in an attempt to humiliate Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton at some point during the debate." --safari note: What to do when your candidate is a know-nothing, bombastic moron? Fight dirty. This moves reeks of an Ailes-Gingrich-Breitbert fever dream. How low can you go? We're about to see. ...

... Chas Danner of New York: "Trump threatened, via Twitter, to invite Gennifer Flowers to Monday night's presidential debate in response to the news that the Clinton campaign had invited billionaire and vocal Trump critic Mark Cuban.... The Trump campaign released a negative ad earlier this week featuring footage of the Clintons being interviewed about the affair with Flowers...." In his tweet, Trump misspelled Flowers' name but later revised it. CW: As safari wrote, "very 'presidential.'" ...

... Steve M.: "This is said to be all Hillary Clinton's fault: 'Remember, if you're grossed out by Trump inviting Gennifer Flowers to the debate: Clinton kicked off this bit of trolling by inviting Cuban' -- Edward-Isaac Dovere, [in a tweet].... Of course, Cuban and Flowers are not analogous -- Cuban did not have an affair with Trump's spouse. (As far as we know!).... The only risk is that idiot journalists -- the Chuck Todds, the Mark Halperins -- will think it's a good move.... But I don't think the public will respond well. And if it's just a matter of Flowers sitting mutely in the audience, and later giving an interview to Sean Hannity afterward that will be watched exclusively by people who are already certain to vote for Trump, it won't matter at all." -- CW ...

     ... Update. Kyle Cheney of Politico: "Mike Pence insisted Sunday that Gennifer Flowers ... would not be attending Monday's debate, despite Donald Trump's invitation." -- CW ...

... Amie Parnes of the Hill: "Hillary Clinton supporters see a double standard when it comes to Monday's presidential debate, which for the first time will feature a woman debating a man. Throughout the campaign, Clinton has faced questions and criticisms that would not be asked or made to a male candidate, her allies say. The jabs have come even Clinton surrogates such as former Pennsylvania governor Ed Rendell, who this week said he'd like to see Clinton 'smile more' in the debate. The comment left ClintonWorld shaking its collective head." -- CW ...

... Josh Marshall of TPM thinks Trump will have a hard time winning a two person debate, perhaps because he'll say something outrageous, but more likely because he can't answer policy questions in any convincing detail, & his one-line non-answers will reveal to viewers he's not up to the job he seeks. -- CW ...

... Marshall's view jibes with safari's commentary in today's thread (which safari wrote before I linked Marshall's post). Also see Kate M.'s suggestions today for Hillary's guest list.

Roger Angell of the New Yorker: "I am late weighing in on this election -- late in more ways than one. Monday brought my ninety-sixth birthday, and, come November, I will be casting my nineteenth ballot in a Presidential election.... My country faces a danger unmatched in our history since the Cuban missile crisis, in 1962, or perhaps since 1943, when the Axis powers held most of Continental Europe, and Imperial Japan controlled the Pacific rim, from the Aleutians to the Solomon Islands, with the outcome of that war still unknown...The first debate impends, and the odds that Donald Trump may be elected President appear to be narrowing. I will cast my own vote for Hillary Clinton with alacrity and confidence." Angell goes on to explain, through his historical experience, why Trump is so dangerous. Worth the read. -safari

** The New York Times Editors endorse Hillary Clinton for president: In any normal election year, we'd compare the two presidential candidates side by side on the issues. But this is not a normal election year. A comparison like that would be an empty exercise in a race where one candidate -- our choice, Hillary Clinton -- has a record of service and a raft of pragmatic ideas, and the other, Donald Trump, discloses nothing concrete about himself or his plans while promising the moon and offering the stars on layaway. (We will explain in a subsequent editorial why we believe Mr. Trump to be the worst nominee put forward by a major party in modern American history." CW: Read it.

By Driftglass.

Michael Kranish, et al., of the Washington Post: "An examination by The Washington Post of one week of Trump's speeches, tweets and interviews show a candidate who not only continues to rely heavily on thinly sourced or entirely unsubstantiated claims but also uses them to paint a strikingly bleak portrait of an impoverished America, overrun by illegal immigrants, criminals and terrorists -- all designed to set up his theme that he is specially suited to 'make America great again.'... Trump doubled down during the past week on some of his most controversial and debunked statements and made surprising new ones." The reporters detail a week of Trumpbull.-- CW

"A Week of Whoppers." Maggie Haberman & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "... Donald J. Trump has unleashed a blizzard of falsehoods, exaggerations and outright lies in the general election, peppering his speeches, interviews and Twitter posts with untruths so frequent that they can seem flighty or random — even compulsive. However, a closer examination, over the course of a week, revealed an unmistakable pattern: Virtually all of Mr. Trump's falsehoods directly bolstered a powerful and self-aggrandizing narrative depicting him as a heroic savior for a nation menaced from every direction. Mike Murphy, a Republican strategist, described the practice as creating 'an unreality bubble that he surrounds himself with.'" The reporters "assembled a list of his 31 biggest whoppers, many of them uttered repeatedly." -- CW

Michael Finnegan of the Los Angeles Times: "Never in modern presidential politics has a major candidate made false statements as routinely as Trump has. Over and over, independent researchers have examined what the Republican nominee says and concluded it was not the truth -- but 'pants on fire' (PolitiFact) or 'four Pinocchios' (Washington Post Fact Checker).... And he is dogged in refusing to stop saying things once they are proved untrue.... At a time of deep public mistrust of the news media, the arbitration of statements of fact, long seen as one of reporters' most basic duties, runs the risk of being perceived as partisan bias. But so does the shirking of that role." -- CW

Kyle Cheney, et al., of Politico: Politico "subjected every statement made by both the Republican and Democratic candidates -- in speeches, in interviews and on Twitter -- to our magazine's rigorous fact-checking process. The conclusion is inescapable: Trump's mishandling of facts and propensity for exaggeration so greatly exceed Clinton's as to make the comparison almost ludicrous.... According to Politico's five-day analysis Trump averaged about one falsehood every three minutes and 15 seconds over nearly five hours of remarks. In raw numbers, that's 87 erroneous statements in five days." -- CW

CW: These stories are all placed prominently on the sites' main pages.

"Philanthropy" Trump style: in name only. John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "Trump's charitable giving has now become a campaign issue, largely due to a series of Post articles written by David Fahrenthold and his colleagues.... So what is the bottom line? Even including the $1 million Trump donated to veterans earlier this year (after prodding from Fahrenthold), the public records indicate that, over the past quarter of a century, he has given away less than $5 million of his own money. According to his own estimate, he is worth in excess of $10 billion. If we take him at his word, that means his charitable contributions come to about 0.05 per cent of his fortune, or five cents for every $100...Trump likes to portray of himself as a great philanthropist, and the numbers simply don't justify that image." --safari

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Before Donald Trump mocked Hillary Clinton's postponement of a planned trip to Charlotte, the GOP nominee had nixed his own initial plans to visit the North Carolina city beset by protests after a fatal police shooting of an African-American man. Trump's visit was in 'preliminary stages' when he spoke with North Carolina Gov. Pat McCrory on Thursday and they agreed to delay the visit, according to a GOP party official." CW: As Politico reported (see yesterday's Commentariat), "Donald Trump ... accus[ed] his opponent of trying to 'grandstand' and call[ed] her initial decision to go to Charlotte 'dumb.'" So he did what she did, but when she did it, it was "grandstanding" & "dumb."

From a 5-part piece by Der Spiegel: "Whoever emerges victorious in the election on Nov. 8 will likely be the president-elect with the least amount of popular support since World War II. The loser will presumably speak of a conspiracy and complain of the numerous untruths that poisoned the campaign. The phenomenon of Donald Trump, who can trace his roots back 131 years ago to the village of Kallstadt, near Mannheim, will certainly not be the end of this toxic development. He likely won't even be its apex.

Liars, after all, are no longer on the political fringe." -- unwashed

Other News & Views

Elise Viebeck of the Washington Post: "Republican lawmakers are under increasing fire for racially insensitive comments after the fatal police shootings of black men sparked unrest in two states. Remarks by Reps. Robert Pittenger (N.C.), Tim Huelskamp (Kan.), Steve King (Iowa) and ex-Rep. Mike Pence (Ind.), the GOP's vice-presidential nominee, underscored to some observers Republicans' tone-deafness on issues of race in a year of unprecedented attention to police bias against African-Americans.... [Pence said] that it is offensive to police to talk about 'institutional racism and institutional bias' after fatal shootings. Donald Trump and I believe there's been far too much of this talk,' Pence said while campaigning in Colorado. Trump's campaign has become increasingly identified with racially divisive comments." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Beyond the Beltway

Paige Cornwell, et al., of the Seattle Times: "The search continued Saturday morning for the gunman who fatally shot five people Friday night in the Cascade Mall in Burlington.... The victims[four of them female,] identities have not been released, but authorities say they ranged from a teen to seniors. The suspect was described as a Hispanic male in his late teens to mid-20s with a close-shaved haircut. He used a long gun similar to a hunting rifle.... This marks Washington's seventh mass shooting with at least four people shot this year, according to the Gun Violence Archive. Most recently, three people were shot dead at a house party in Mukilteo n July." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Update. Jessica Lee, et al., of the Seattle Times: "Tips and surveillance video led to the arrest of a 20-year-old Oak Harbor man in connection with Friday's deadly shooting at the Cascade Mall, authorities said Saturday night. The suspect, identified as Arcan Cetin, was arrested Saturday evening as he walked along a street in Oak Harbor. Cetin will be turned over to the Skagit County Sheriff's Office, according to Island County authorities." -- CW

Way Beyond

Jonathan Watts & Sibylla Brodzinsky of the Guardian: "In their 52-year fight against the Colombian state, Farc rebels used assault rifles, shrapnel-filled gas canisters, homemade landmines and mortar shells.... Those weapons are now set to be silenced forever as part of a historic peace deal with the government, to be signed on Monday...Like many other Marxist and Maoist followers of the 'armed struggle', the Farc were inspired by the audacious exploits of Fidel Castro and Che Guevara...In the 1960s and 70s, guerrilla groups sprang up in every country in the region except Costa Rica...[M]any turned to the ballot box after the restoration of democracy in much of Latin America in the 1980s took away much of their raison d’etre...The longest-enduring groups, however, are in Peru, and Colombia -- all countries that are not coincidentally centres of drug production and smuggling, which is a source of funds and guns." Includes good historical review of Latin American guerilla movements and the holdouts still active today. --safari

Capitalism is Awesome, Ctd. Ashifa Kassam of the Guardian: "A small town in Ontario, Canada, has prompted fresh scrutiny of the bottled-water industry after its attempt secure a long-term water supply through the purchase of a well was outbid by the food and drinks multinational Nestlé.... Nestlé Canada currently has permits that allow it to extract up to 4.7m litres of water a day from sources in Ontario.... Last month, after a severe drought triggered questions about the millions of litres a day of water being sold to bottled-water companies in the province, Kathleen Wynne, Ontario's premier, promised a government review into the practice." --safari

Alejandro Dávil Fragoso of ThinkProgress: "Dozens of native tribes from Canada and the United Stateshave joined forces against Alberta's tar sands crude oil transport with the signing of a treaty Thursday. Calling for a clean and sustainable economy, tribes said any further pipeline or rail development for Canadian tar sands puts indigenous territories and waterways at serious risk to toxic spills." --safari