The Commentariat -- October 16, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

And You Read It in the New York Times. Patricia Cohen: "Given the gains that have flowed to those at the tip of the income pyramid in recent decades, several economists have been making the case that the government could raise large amounts of revenue exclusively from this small group, while still allowing them to take home a majority of their income. It is 'absurd' to argue that most wealth at the top is already highly taxed or that there isn't much more revenue to be had by raising taxes on the 1 percent, says the economist Joseph E. Stiglitz, winner of the Nobel in economic science, who has written extensively about inequality. 'The only upside of the concentration of the wealth at the top is that they have more money to pay in taxes,' he said." CW: Gosh, you'd almost think the NYT had become a librul newspaper.

Simon Maloy of Salon takes a look at what-all Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, et al., consider "tyrannical," acts or conditions, against which patriots must take up arms: gay rights & ObamaCare figure prominently. Further, the evil despots have infiltrated all three branches of government: the presidency, the Congress (the entire Democratic caucus), the Supreme Court. "... so much of the conservative movement has come to define 'tyranny' as 'something the Democrats did that I disagree with.' They actively encourage conservative voters to believe that they're being persecuted and having their rights stripped away as part of a broader agenda to purge religious liberty from the land. When you pair that message with a passionate call to arm oneself to defend against the voiding of your rights, you're crossing into insurrectionist territory...." See also today's comments along this vein.

*****

Jeremy Scahill of the Intercept: "From his first days as commander in chief, the drone has been President Barack Obama's weapon of choice, used by the military and the CIA to hunt down and kill the people his administration has deemed -- through secretive processes, without indictment or trial -- worthy of execution. There has been intense focus on the technology of remote killing, but that often serves as a surrogate for what should be a broader examination of the state's power over life and death. Drones are a tool, not a policy. The policy is assassination.... The Intercept has obtained a cache of secret slides that provides a window into the inner workings of the U.S. military's kill/capture operations at a key time in the evolution of the drone wars -- between 2011 and 2013." ...

... AJ Vicens & Max Rosenthal of Mother Jones: "Amnesty International called for an immediate congressional inquiry into the drone program, saying the leaked documents 'raise serious concerns about whether the USA has systematically violated international law, including by classifying unidentified people as "combatants" to justify their killings.'" Vicens & Rosenthal summarize key findings of Scahill's reports.

Spencer Ackerman of the Guardian: "At least a dozen more people were subjected to waterboard-like tactics in CIA custody than the agency has admitted, according to a fresh accounting of the US government's most discredited form of torture. The CIA maintains it only subjected three detainees to waterboarding. But agency interrogators subjected at least 12 others to a similar technique, known as 'water dousing', that also created a drowning sensation or chilled a person's body temperature -- sometimes through 'immersion' in water, and often without use of a board."

Ken Dilanian of the AP: "American special operations analysts were gathering intelligence on an Afghan hospital days before it was destroyed by a U.S. military attack because they believed it was being used by a Pakistani operative to coordinate Taliban activity.... It's unclear whether commanders who unleashed the AC-130 gunship on the hospital -- killing at least 22 patients and hospital staff -- were aware that the site was a hospital or knew about the allegations of possible enemy activity.... The new details about the military's suspicions that the hospital was being misused complicate an already murky picture and add to the unanswered questions about one of the worst civilian casualty incidents of the Afghan war. They also raise the possibility of a breakdown in intelligence sharing and communication across the military chain of command."

Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post: "The Obama administration is predicting a meager increase next year in the number of Americans with private insurance through the Affordable Care Act -- a forecast, far below previous government estimates, that signals the obstacles to attracting people who remain uninsured."

Is Not a Witch Hunt! Rachel Bade of Politico: "GOP Benghazi Committee chairman Trey Gowdy blasted fellow Republican Rep. Richard Hanna on Thursday for claiming his investigation was aimed at hurting 2016 Democratic frontrunner Hillary Clinton." CW: One does have to wonder if a guy whose head & haircut could serve as a mold for a witch's hat is maybe the real witch (or warlock or wizard, if you prefer).

Howard Berkes of NPR & Michael Grabell of ProPublica: "Nearly 1.5 million workers in Texas and Oklahoma do not receive state-mandated benefits under heavily regulated workers' compensation and are dependent instead on alternative, largely unregulated benefits plans controlled by employers. State laws in both Oklahoma and Texas allow employers to opt out of workers' compensation and develop their own workplace injury plans. Those plans generally cover fewer injuries, cut off benefits payments sooner, control access to doctors and even impose mandatory settlements, according to an NPR and ProPublica investigation. In Oklahoma, we found that most plans blatantly violate the law, yet regulators say they are powerless to respond.... In the past 13 years legislatures in 33 states have cut benefits, made it more difficult to qualify for benefits or given employers more control over medical treatment." Read the whole story. It could happen to you. Thanks to Akhilleus for the link.

The Times has not had enough of "the damn e-mails." Matt Apuzzo & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "Federal agents were still cataloging the classified information from Hillary Rodham Clinton's personal email server last week when President Obama went on television and played down the matter. 'I don't think it posed a national security problem,' Mr. Obama said Sunday on CBS's '60 Minutes.'... [His] statements angered F.B.I. agents.... Investigators have not reached any conclusions about whether the information on the server had been compromised or whether to recommend charges.... Officials ... saw an instance of the president trying to influence the outcome of a continuing investigation -- and not for the first time." They blame comments by President Obama for Eric Holder's decision to let David Petraeus off the hook. ...

... CW: This story sounds mostly like a report about employees griping that the boss doesn't appreciate their hard work. Their point about Petraeus seems like a stretch, given what Obama actually said publicly. However, Holder made himself infamous for shilling for Bill Clinton in the Marc Rich parson case, so it's hardly inconceivable that he was, or thought he was, doing Obama's bidding re: Petraeus. And I sure didn't know this: Petraeus "remained an informal White House adviser." In context, I think that "remained" means "remains." That is, Petraeus still rings up President Obama & offers his advice. Or maybe he sneaks in the servants' entrance to chat with Ben Rhodes. Whatever.

Tim Egan: "... most of the tenets of what is considered democratic socialism have majority support in the United States.... This week, Donald Trump called [Bernie Sanders] a 'communist.' If so, you can find broad public support for most of the things advocated by the commie from Brooklyn.... For true socialism in action, look to the billionaire Trump. As a developer, he's tried to use eminent domain -- 'state-sanctioned thievery,' in the words of National Review Online -- to get other people's property. There's your communist.... said, 'We are not Denmark.' Nope. Not by any stretch. Denmark has a slightly higher tax load on its citizens than the United States. But it also has budget surpluses, universal health care, shorter working hours, and was recently rated by Forbes magazine as the best country in the world for business."

David Sanger of the New York Times: "The Obama administration is exploring a deal with Pakistan that would limit the scope of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, the fastest-growing on earth. The discussions are the first in the decade since one of the founders of its nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was caught selling the country's nuclear technology around the world." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Ellen Nakashima of the Washington Post: "The Justice Department has charged a hacker in Malaysia with stealing the personal data of U.S. service members and passing it to the Islamic State terrorist group, which urged supporters online to attack them. The charges, announced Thursday, are the first ever against a suspect for terrorism and hacking, and they represent a troubling convergence of the techniques used in cyberattacks with terrorism, U.S. officials said. Ardit Ferizi, a citizen of Kosovo, was detained in Malaysia on a U.S. provisional arrest warrant, officials said."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Make That "Fraud 'News.'" Dylan Byers, now dishing for CNN: "Wayne Simmons, a recurring guest on Fox News who claimed to have 27 years of experience with the CIA, was arrested Thursday after being indicted by a federal grand jury on charges that he lied about his service. Simmons is accused of falsely claiming that he worked as an 'outside paramilitary special operations officer' for the CIA from 1973 to 2000. On Fox, this was often shortened to 'former CIA operative.' He was also indicted for using that false claim to gain government security clearances and an assignment as a defense contractor, where he advised senior military personnel overseas. Simmons is a familiar face to Fox News viewers.... In his appearances on Fox, Simmons regularly made extreme and factually dubious statements pertaining to terrorism and national security. Just this January, he claimed there were 'at least 19 paramilitary Muslim training facilities in the United States.'" ...

... Ryan Reilly of the Huffington Post: "In court documents, federal prosecutors alleged that Simmons had a 'significant criminal history, including convictions for a crime of violence and firearms offenses, and is believed to have had an ongoing association with firearms notwithstanding those felony convictions.' They successfully petitioned a judge to keep Simmons' indictment sealed until his arrest today, noting that Simmons 'has a history of acting in an aggressive manner, and is likely aware of the imminent nature of the charges in this case.'" ...

... Matt Zapotosky of the Washington Post has a bit more on Simmons. It sounds as if he's a very convincing liar.

Presidential Race

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "R.T. Rybak, the former mayor of Minneapolis and a vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee, on Thursday accused the party's leader, Representative Debbie Wasserman Schultz, of making 'flat-out not true' statements about another top party officer, questioned her political skills and said he had 'serious questions' about her suitability for the job."

Matea Gold, et al., of the Washington Post: "The Democratic presidential contenders dramatically outpaced their Republican counterparts in the race for campaign cash last quarter, spotlighting how the parties are taking divergent paths in their pursuit of 2016 funding. The emphasis by Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bernie Sanders on raising money directly for their campaigns has helped them amass large donor pools critical to generating the estimated $1 billion each party's candidate will need to raise by Election Day. While GOP candidates put an intense focus early in the year on raising huge sums for independent groups, many have had less success in attracting smaller donations that are the lifeblood of campaign operations...." ...

... Nicholas Confessore & Eric Lichtblau of the New York Times: "In the Republican and Democratic primaries alike, upstart candidates shunned by their parties' major donors are now financially competitive with -- and, in some cases, vastly outraising -- opponents who have spent months or even years wooing the big-name donors and fund-raisers who have traditionally dominated the money race.... Republicans with strong ties to the party's donor elite -- Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin and former Gov. Rick Perry of Texas -- were forced out of the race for lack of cash." ...

... CW: Notice how stories like Confessore & Lichtblau's barely hint at who the small donors are: on both sides, they are people who could have found other good uses for their $27 or $2,700 donation, but they were willing to give up something to counter those huge contributions from billionaires, contributions that are not only are a drop in the bucket but are "dropped" for personal and/or business gain.

... Gabriel Debenedetti of Politico: "Hillary Clinton's campaign brought in $29.45 million in the third quarter, spending $25.8 million in the process -- both totals that eclipse any other candidate in the race for the second straight quarter. The campaign raised roughly $28.8 million in primary money and accepted around $691,000 in general election funds, ending the quarter with roughly $33 million cash on hand -- another mark higher than any of her rivals. But its nearly $26 million in spending was by far the biggest number of any White House aspirant...." ...

... Gabriel Debenedetti: "Bernie Sanders had $27.1 million in cash on hand at the end of the third quarter, a considerable sum that comes after a $26.2 million quarter for the Vermont senator. He has also raised more than $3.2 million since Tuesday's debate, his campaign said, with an average donation of $32.28." ...

... David Nather of Stat in the Boston Globe: "Martin Shkreli, chief executive officer of Turing Pharmaceuticals ... [and t]he man who has become the public face of rising drug prices says he has donated to presidential candidate Bernie Sanders -- who has been bashing Big Pharma on the campaign trail -- to try to get a meeting so the two can talk it out. Sanders isn't interested. His campaign said Thursday that he's giving the money to a Washington health clinic instead -- and the drug executive isn't getting the meeting." CW: Shkreli gave $2,700 to the Sanders campaign. At $750 a pill, which is the price Shkreli's charges for a tablet that cost $13.50 till Shkreli's company bought the rights, that's about the profit Shkreli made on the sale of four pills.

Paul Krugman: "Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders had an argument about financial regulation during Tuesday's debate -- but it wasn't about whether to crack down on banks. Instead, it was about whose plan was tougher. The contrast with Republicans like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio, who have pledged to reverse even the moderate financial reforms enacted in 2010, couldn't be stronger. For what it's worth, Mrs. Clinton had the better case."

Lauren Gambino of the Guardian: "In what could be the earliest snapshot of the 2016 Democratic ticket, party frontrunner Hillary Clinton stood hand in hand with former San Antonio mayor Julián Castro after receiving his endorsement at a campaign rally in his hometown. Castro, who currently serves as secretary of Housing and Urban Development, told the crowd that Clinton had a 'strong vision for America's future' and unlike Republicans, he said switching to Spanish, 'she respects the Latino community'."

Forty percent of guns are sold at gun shows, online sales. -- Hillary Clinton, at Manchester Community College, N.H., Oct. 5, 2015

By any reasonable measure, Clinton's claim that 40 percent of guns are sold at gun shows or over the Internet -- and thus evade background checks through a loophole -- does not stand up to scrutiny.... The 40-percent figure, even if confirmed in a new survey, refers to all gun transactions, not just gun sales. A large percentage of the gun transactions not covered by background checks are family and friend transactions -- which would have been exempt from the universal background checks pushed by Democrats. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post

Julie Davis of the New York Times: "Joe Biden is still playing coy with reporters on his political plans. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Maggie Haberman: "An aide to Donald J. Trump has raised the possibility of the candidate not attending the next Republican presidential debate unless the criteria set by CNBC is changed, according to two people briefed on a conference call where the matter was discussed on Thursday." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

CW: Jeb!, assuming he'll be our next POTUS, has published on his campaign Website a medical report on his health & fitness for office. Via Politico. ...

... BUT. Matea Gold & Phlip Rucker of the Washington Post: "No more 'shock and awe': Jeb Bush [is] now just another presidential aspirant."

Strange Man on Book Tour Accidentally Becomes POTUS. Katherine Faulders of ABC News: "Republican presidential contender Dr. Ben Carson has put his public campaign events on hold for two more weeks to go on book tour for his new tome 'A More Perfect Union' and catch up on fundraising events." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Ed Kilgore: "However you slice it, this development is going to remind the chattering classes of 2012 candidates Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, who were frequently accused of using their campaigns to sell books and videos and so forth. Indeed, most candidates release their 'campaign books' either before or early in their candidacies, as appetizers, not ends in themselves." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Laura Clawson of Daily Kos: "I'm not sure Sarah Palin could do any better at the GOP grifter act than this." CW: And you thought Donald Trump was the big publicity hound in this campaign. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... CW PS: We learn from the Confessore & Lichtblau piece linked about that Carson relies to a great extent on telemarketers to raise money. Wouldn't you love to hear the pitches they use on the gullible? The neurosurgeon has become a serious profiteer.

We're seeing our freedoms taken away every day and last night was an audition for who would wear the jackboot most vigorously. Last night was an audition for who would embrace government power for who would strip your and my individual liberties. -- Sen. Ted Cruz, Wednesday, commenting on the Democratic debate, which he did not watch

The 2nd Amendment ... is a Constitutional right to protect your children, your family, your home, our lives, and to serve as the ultimate check against governmental tyranny -- for the protection of liberty. -- Sen. Ted Cruz, fundraising letter sent earlier this year

... Ed Kilgore: "... I think this sort of rhetoric is a serious matter. Why? Because Cruz is one of those presidential candidates (along with Ben Carson and Mike Huckabee for sure; the exact position of several others is unclear) who claim the Second Amendment gives Americans the right to revolutionary violence against their own government if it engages in 'tyranny' or doesn't respect our rights.... I really think Cruz, Carson and Huckabee need to be asked very specifically on the campaign trail and in debates exactly which circumstances would justify the armed insurrection they defend.... All this talk about liberal 'tyranny' also illustrates the fundamentally anti-democratic nature of 'constitutional conservatism.'... If you feel your own POV is the only legitimate set of ideas consistent with the Constitution or even the structure of the universe and the Will of God, then you are not going to be interested in compromise or limits on your exercise of power...." ...

... Well, Ed, those heavily-armed, freeedom-loving patriots are already coming thru for Tailgunner Ted. Katie Zezima & Tom Hamburger: "Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) reported more money in the bank than any other GOP presidential candidate as the last quarter ended, according to figures released by the Federal Election Commission Thursday. Cruz's campaign raised $12.2 million last quarter, giving him a total of $26.5 million raised during the campaign so far. He reported having $13.8 million in cash on hand, meaning he spent about 50 percent of what came in since his campaign started...."

Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "The United States criminal justice system could be improved if we sell poor people convicted of crimes into slavery, according to Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.... Huckabee's comments, which come 150 years after the 13th Amendment's adoption, appear to be the first time in modern history that a credible presidential candidate has joined the fringe call to reinstate slavery." CW: I've been ignoring Huckabee, & will continue to do so, but I thought endorsing slavery (because the Bible tells us so) was super-special. (Also linked yesterday.)

Beyond the Beltway

Winnie Hu of the New York Times: "A New York police officer who arrested a photographer on assignment for The New York Times on a Bronx street in 2012 was convicted on Thursday of falsifying a record to justify the arrest. The officer, Michael Ackermann, 32, was found guilty of a single felony count of offering a false instrument for filing.... Officer Ackermann had claimed the photographer, Robert Stolarik, interfered with the arrest of a suspect by repeatedly discharging his camera's flash in his face. A subsequent investigation found that Mr. Stolarik did not own a flash or have one on his camera at the time." CW: Just a reminder that many cops will lie on even the most trivial cases.

News Ledes

New York Times: "Hungary said on Friday that it would close its border with Croatia to migrants at midnight to control the flow of thousands of migrants and refugees across Europe." CW: I thought they did that weeks ago. I can't keep up.

Toronto Star: "... 81-year-old [Ken] Taylor, who died Thursday, made his mark as Canada's most celebrated and internationally-acclaimed ambassador: known as the moving force behind the daring 'Canadian Caper' that saw six Americans escape from Iran during the 1979-81 hostage crisis."

New York Times: "Turkish fighter jets shot down a drone aircraft close to the Syrian border on Friday after it violated Turkey's airspace, the military said in a statement. 'An aerial vehicle of unknown origin was detected inside our airspace on the Syrian border,' the statement said.... Reuters quoted an anonymous United States official as saying that American officials suspected that it was Russian."

Washington Post: "Palestinian protesters set fire to a Jewish holy shrine on the West Bank on Friday as the militant group Hamas called for another 'day of rage' against Israel, already shaken to its core by two weeks of violence."

The Commentariat -- October 15, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

David Sanger of the New York Times: "The Obama administration is exploring a deal with Pakistan that would limit the scope of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, the fastest-growing on earth. The discussions are the first in the decade since one of the founders of its nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was caught selling the country's nuclear technology around the world."

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "An aide to Donald J. Trump has raised the possibility of the candidate not attending the next Republican presidential debate unless the criteria set by CNBC is changed, according to two people briefed on a conference call where the matter was discussed on Thursday."

Katherine Faulders of ABC News: "Republican presidential contender Dr. Ben Carson has put his public campaign events on hold for two more weeks to go on book tour for his new tome 'A More Perfect Union' and catch up on fundraising events." ...

... Ed Kilgore: "However you slice it, this development is going to remind the chattering classes of 2012 candidates Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, who were frequently accused of using their campaigns to sell books and videos and so forth. Indeed, most candidates release their 'campaign books' either before or early in their candidacies, as appetizers, not ends in themselves." ...

... Laura Clawson of Daily Kos: "I'm not sure Sarah Palin could do any better at the GOP grifter act than this." CW: And you thought Donald Trump was the big publicity hound in this campaign.

Julie Davis of the New York Times: "Joe Biden is still playing coy with reporters on his political plans.

Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "The United States criminal justice system could be improved if we sell poor people convicted of crimes into slavery, according to Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.... Huckabee's comments, which come 150 years after the 13th Amendment's adoption, appear to be the first time in modern history that a credible presidential candidate has joined the fringe call to reinstate slavery." CW: I've been ignoring Huckabee, & will continue to do so, but I thought endorsing slavery (because the Bible tells us so) was outrageous enough to link.

*****

... The Longest War. Matthew Rosenberg of the New York Times: "The United States will halt its military withdrawal from Afghanistan and instead keep thousands of troops in the country through the end of President Obama's term in 2017, Mr. Obama will announce on Thursday, prolonging the American role in a war that has now stretched on for 14 years."

Julie Bosman of the New York Times: "J. Dennis Hastert..., who rose to political power as the longest-serving Republican speaker of the House, intends to plead guilty as part of an agreement in a case where he is accused of skirting banking laws and lying to the federal investigators, according to proceedings Thursday in Federal District Court.... It was unclear what charges that Mr. Hastert would plead guilty to and what the sentence may be.... Mr. Hastert, 73, was charged in May with structuring cash withdrawals, totaling $1.7 million, in a manner intended to avoid detection by banking officials, and then lying about the withdrawals to the federal authorities.... Though the indictment did not say what the withdrawals were for, subsequent reports, citing unidentified government sources, said that they were 'hush money' to cover up allegations of sexual misconduct with a male student during Mr. Hastert's time as a high school teacher and coach in Yorkville, Ill...."

Robert Pear of the New York Times: "Congress and the Obama administration are frantically seeking ways to hold down Medicare premiums that could rise by roughly 50 percent for some beneficiaries next year, according to lawmakers and Medicare officials.... Aides to Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House Democratic leader, and Speaker John A. Boehner are quietly exploring a possible deal that would limit the expected increase in Medicare premiums." ...

... CW: MEANWHILE, Social Security benefits will stay flat. Recently My Damned Cat has taken to rejecting the catfood pate that was her main staple. I still have half a box of cans. Looks like I'll be snacking on catfood canapes.

New York Times Editors: "It was impossible not to feel a sense of relief watching the Democratic debate after months dominated by the Republican circus of haters, ranters and that very special group of king killers in Congress. For those despairing about the future of American politics, here was proof that it doesn't have to revolve around candidates who pride themselves on knowing nothing or believe that governing is all about destroying government.... What stood out most was the Democratic Party's big tent, capable of containing a spectrum of reality-based views." ...

    ... CW: That's right, folks. We have only one political party in which candidates campaign on "reality-based views." And you read it in the New York Times.

... Frank Rich: On the Debate: "The morning-after consensus (left, right, and center) is correct: Hillary Clinton not only romped over the competition -- such as it was -- but could well have shut down the prospect of a Biden run. But if the Clinton revival sustains itself, the turning point will not have been last night's debate but Kevin McCarthy's September 29 public admission on Fox News that the House Benghazi committee's main motivation was to take her out rather than investigate the deaths of four Americans taken out by terrorists." On the Speakership: "Ryan seems to think everything is beneath him except his lofty engagement in policy as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee -- policy being defined as cutting taxes for the GOP donor class and cutting entitlements like social security and Medicare for everyone else." ...

... Gail Collins on Hillary's good month. ...

... Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "All night, the debate played to Mrs. Clinton's advantage and to her opponents' limitations. From gun control and banking regulations to debt-free college and Social Security benefits, Mrs. Clinton positioned herself as a champion of liberals, young people, and the elderly -- the very voters who make up the Sanders coalition -- while also repeatedly reaching out to women, as an advocate for families and children (and as, potentially, the nation's first female president)." ...

... Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton's sure-footed performance in the first Democratic presidential debate did not just lift the spirits of her supporters and reassure nervous party officials about her candidacy, it also swiftly cooled talk about the need for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to enter the campaign and offer Democrats an alternative." ...

... Matt Yglesias has an excellent analysis of the debate performances.* "The policy-heavy dynamic ultimately played directly into Clinton's hand. On a stage of earnest, policy-oriented pols, she was simply the best briefed and the best able to fluently address a seemingly endless array of issues." ...

     * Pundit-wise, that is. See Adam Johnson's commentary, linked below. ...

... Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. CW: I'm with Nate Silver on this: "Before last night's debate, I suggested the media was likely to emerge with one of two narratives about the state of Hillary Clinton's campaign: Either she was mounting a comeback, or she was in a downward spiral.... Clinton gave about the performance that might reasonably have been expected from a frontrunner who gained a ton of experience as a debater during the 2008 Democratic primary: pretty good. Poised, polished and highly competent at appealing to various segments of the Democratic electorate. But also risk-averse and without all that many high notes.... The difference between FiveThirtyEight's view of the debate and Mark Halperin's or The New York Times' is that we've been skeptical of the 'Clinton in disarray' narrative for a long time." Krugman had a similar take in a post I linked yesterday. ...

... ** AND Adam Johnson of AlterNet: "Bernie Sanders by all objective measures 'won' the debate.... Sanders won the CNN focus group, the Fusion focus group, and the Fox News focus group; in the latter, he even converted several Hillary supporters. He won the Slate online poll, CNN/Time online poll, 9News Colorado, The Street online poll, Fox5 poll, the conservative Drudge online poll and the liberal Daily Kos online poll. There wasn't, to this writer's knowledge, a poll he didn't win by at least an 18-point margin. But you wouldn't know this from reading the establishment press.... This gap speaks to a larger gap we've seen since the beginning of the Sanders campaign. The mainstream media writes off Bernie and is constantly shocked when his polls numbers go up." ...

... Andy Borowitz: "In a major slip that may prove fatal to his Presidential ambitions, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont treated his principal opponent for the Democratic nomination with dignity and respect on Tuesday night. Calling it a gaffe of historic proportions, many political insiders were still scratching their heads Wednesday morning over Sanders's bizarre decision to act toward his opponent as if she were a fellow human being."

Amber Phillips of the Washington Post explains that grenade incident Jim Webb mentioned in his closing remarks. He received the Navy Cross for his actions.

Brian Stelter of CNN: "CNN's Tuesday night debate averaged 15.3 million viewers, easily making it the highest-rated Democratic debate ever."

Philip Rucker & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "The Democratic presidential candidates have thrust gun control forward as a dominant issue for the national election, crystallizing a sea change in the politics of a controversial subject that recent Democratic nominees have often avoided. After years of deadly mass shootings across the country, and with President Obama voicing deep frustration with inaction by Republicans in Congress, the Democratic candidates led by Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed in a debate [in Las Vegas, Nevada,] Tuesday night to toughen restrictions on gun owners and gun manufacturers."

CW: Marco, whose campaign staff evidently didn't give him the memo about the perils of accusing Democratic candidates of giving away "free stuff" the first time (Mitt), or the second time (Jeb!), makes the claim about half a dozen times in the space of a minute. The Free Stuff Lament must be part of the Republican zeitgeist. (To Marco's credit, he did not associate free-stuff giveaways with black recipients, as did Mitt & Jeb!) If it bothers them so much, they should spend more time talking about the "free stuff" they're giving away to their billionaire buddies:

Mark Hensch of the Hill: "Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly says she was shocked by Donald Trump's reaction to her debate questions and that she never expected a feud with the GOP front-runner. 'It's clear we may have overestimated his anger-management skills,' she said ... on Tuesday. Kelly said she wasn't singling out Trump and had asked tough questions of all the candidates during the Fox News debate."

Kira Lerner of Think Progress: "At a campaign stop in rural Iowa on Wednesday, Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz told ThinkProgress that activists with the Black Lives Matter movement -- people who have been peacefully protesting the murder of black men and women by law enforcement -- are 'literally suggesting and embracing and celebrating the murder of police officers.'... Despite a lack of evidence that Black Lives Matter has motivated any of the recent murders of police officers, conservative politicians have claimed that police officers are under attack thanks to Black Lives Matter's growing popularity. Meanwhile the number of police officers killed on the job has been steadily dropping for decades, with 51 officers killed last year." ...

... Jon Green of AmericaBlog: "Cruz knows as well as anyone that there's nothing but upside in going back to the race well in the Republican primary. Trump got plenty of lift going after Mexicans, Ben Carson with Muslims (plus his wink-and-nod to white voters on the Confederate Flag); and now Cruz with black people. As Cruz has positioned himself to be the 'Trump, but with an actual campaign infrastructure' candidate in the race, he's going to have to start peeling off the racist vote from the field's two front runners. And what better way to start than by implying that an explicitly anti-death movement is actually encouraging murder?"

Alan Steinweis, in a New York Times op-ed: "Ben Carson is wrong on guns and the Holocaust.... If the United States is going to arrive at a workable compromise solution to its gun problem, it will not be accomplished through the use of historical analogies that are false, silly and insulting." ...

... CW: The news media have a duty to ask Carson to defend his views against Steinweis's scholarship. Steinweis doesn't need to convince me. The issue is how Carson reacts when confronted with facts that rebut his loony remarks. Carson claims that his own profession -- unlike politics -- requires years of study. What about history? Is it, like politics, also gleaned intuitively? Or is Prof. Steinweis simply not privy to the CIA voices in Doc Ben's head? ...

... CW: I thought this was a Halloween joke or else an ad for some kind of paranormal institute's Ponzi scheme when I saw it in "Promoted Stories" (ads) at the bottom of Frank Rich's Q&A. But it's a link to Carson's campaign Webpage. It's still creepy.

Jeb! to Stay in Cheap Hotels to Please Billionaire Donors. Eli Stokols & Marc Caputo of Politico: "Although the Bush campaign has yet to release its fundraising numbers from the third quarter ahead of Thursday's deadline, the belt-tightening has already begun, at least around the margins with regard to travel.... Conceived as a fundraising juggernaut that would 'shock and awe' opponents into oblivion, Bush's campaign is suddenly struggling to raise hard dollars and increasingly economizing -- not because he's out of money, but to convince nervous donors, who are about to get their first look at his campaign's burn rate, that he's not wasting it."

** "It's Even Worse Than It Was When We Said It's Even Worse Than It Looks." Francis Wilkinson of Bloomberg discusses, via e-mail, the state of the Republican party with scholars Thomas Mann & Norm Ornstein.

** Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Jim Fallows of the Atlantic explains how the media -- have been enabling the Benghaaazi! committee & other partisan hackery. Fallows has a particular gift for putting together disparate events to demonstrate a trend &/or a cause-and-effect.

Jake Sherman & Anna Palmer of Politico: "House Speaker John Boehner is looking to move a bill to lift the debt ceiling before he leaves Congress, a tactic aimed at helping his successor, according to multiple sources with knowledge of internal party planning." ...

... Lauren French of Politico: "Republican leaders are formally asking their rank-and-file members to propose changes to the rules governing the House GOP conference. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the chair of the Republican Conference and Rep. Luke Messer, the chair of the Policy Committee, sent a letter to lawmakers Wednesday night saying that the House GOP will continue debate on overhauling the rules of the House - a key demand from conservative members who helped oust Speaker John Boehner." ...

... Jake Sherman of Politico: "Republican leaders see Freedom Caucus members as a bunch of bomb-throwing ideologues with little interest in finding solutions that can pass a divided government. But that's a false reading of the group, [Rep. Justin] Amash [RTP-Michigan] told his constituents. Their mission isn't to drag Republican leadership to the right, though many of them would certainly favor more conservative outcomes. It's simply to force them to follow the institution's procedures, Amash argued." CW: They're really just for a more democratic process. Okay.

Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "A second House Republican has now conceded that the overarching purpose of the House Select Committee on Benghazi has been to attack former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.... 'Sometimes the biggest sin you can commit in D.C. is to tell the truth,' [Richard] Hanna [R-N.Y.] said in an interview on ... a radio show in upstate New York. The third-term congressman paused for a moment ... before going on to agree with [Kevin] McCarthy's original statement [about the purpose of the Benghaaazi! committee]. 'This may not be politically correct, but I think that there was a big part of this investigation that was designed to go after people and an individual, Hillary Clinton,' Hanna said.... 'I think that's the way Washington works. But you'd like to expect more from a committee that's spent millions of dollars and tons of time.'"

Linda Greenhouse: "... the future of the right to abortion once again -- still -- [is] in the hands of Justice Kennedy.... Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel A. Alito Jr. ... chose to go on the record as being willing to let three-quarters of the abortion clinics in Texas shut down without a Supreme Court hearing." ...

... Oops! Didn't Mean to Leave Those Aborted Fetuses in the Trunk of My Car. Samantha Allen of the Daily Beast on a Michigan doctor who is in custody under suspicion of performing illegal abortions in an upscale Detroit suburb. CW: Assuming the evidence & allegations pan out, this is the kind of doctor whose services are certainly becoming more & more in demand as states add restrictions to legal abortions under the guise of caring so much about women's health. And, yes, it is women in "upscale neighborhoods" who will have the "advantage" of receiving these excellent services. Less wealthy women will have to resort to even worse alternatives. Thanks, Supremes!

Russ Choma of Mother Jones: "Former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul took the stand in an Iowa federal courthouse [Wednesday] afternoon in the trial of two of his top aides from his 2012 presidential campaign. The aides have been accused of paying for the endorsement of an Iowa state senator and then trying to cover it up. Paul blasted prosecutors and the media while still testifying that he abhorred the concept of paying for endorsements. Paul was called as a witness for the prosecution in the trial of Jesse Benton, his 2012 presidential campaign chairman who is also married to Paul's granddaughter."

Terrence McCoy of the Washington Post: "In February of last year, the Georgetown [Washington, D.C.] Business Improvement District partnered with District police to launch [an] effort, which they call a 'real-time mobile-based group-messaging app that connects Georgetown businesses, police officers and community members.' Since then, the app has attracted nearly 380 users who surreptitiously report on -- and photograph -- shoppers in an attempt to deter crime.... The result, critics say..., has [laid] bare the racial fault lines that still define this cobblestoned enclave of tony boutiques and historic rowhouses that is home to many of Washington's elite." What a surprise: it seems the vast majority of "suspicious" shoppers are black.

Beyond the Beltway

Dennis Overbye of the New York Times: "Geoffrey Marcy, the renowned astronomer who was found guilty of sexually harassing students in a campus investigation, is resigning from the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley, where he has been a professor for 16 years.... The university placed Dr. Marcy on probation over the summer after the investigation but did not announce the decision. It became widely known only last week, when BuzzFeed News reported it." ...

... The BuzzFeed story, by Azeen Ghorayshi, is here.: "After a six-month investigation, Geoff Marcy -- a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who has been mentioned as a potential Nobel laureate -- was found to have violated campus sexual harassment policies between 2001 and 2010. Four women alleged that Marcy repeatedly engaged in inappropriate physical behavior with students, including unwanted massages, kisses, and groping."

Jogging While Black in Talladega, Alabama.

Julie Bosman: The Kansas Secetary of state, [the execrable] Kris Kobach, has set up another barrier to voting, requiring them to provide proof of citizenship within 90 days of trying to register to vote. It disproportionately affects young people. ...

... CW: How upset would you be if resident noncitizen adults were actually allowed to vote? Besides living here, most of them work, many own homes, & virtually all pay taxes here & have a stake in their communities. I don't think they have an "inalienable right" to vote, but if my state allowed noncitizens to vote, I would have no objection whatsoever. Were I a legislator, I would vote for a bill allowing noncitizen residents to vote.

... Today in Responsible Gun Ammo Ownership. So this guy in Missouri sets a trash fire in an open field. Then he lets the fire get out of control. Then he tries to put it out by repeatedly driving over the burning area with his truck. (Bet you never thought of that.) Then for some reason the truck's tires catch on fire. Then he thinks, "Wow! I've got a full tank of gas & a truckload of ammo in the back. I wonder what could happen next." In his first lucid moment of the day, he abandons the truck before ammo started exploding. No one was injured. Remember when you were a kid & you thought grown men knew what they were doing?

Tom Benning of the Dallas Morning News: State "Rep. Jason Villalba (R) is standing by a Tweet he made during Tuesday's Democratic debate that included an image connecting presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders' standing as a 'Democratic socialist' to Nazism." The Nazi party referred National Socialists, not Democratic socialists. CW: But, hey, close. Why not tweet it out? And there's nothing slightly offensive about calling a Jew a Nazi, although in fairness, Villalba may not be well-enough informed to know Sanders is Jewish. Also too, doesn't this sound ridiculous: "I stand by my tweet"?

News Ledes

Thursday, October 15, 2015.

Click on map to see larger image.

... NOAA: "Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today favoring cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier. This year's El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream."

New York Times: Germany's automobile regulator on Thursday ordered Volkswagen to recall 2.4 million vehicles with diesel motors carrying software intended to manipulate emissions test results."

The Commentariat -- October 14, 2015

Internal links removed.

Michael Barbaro & Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton, seeking to halt the momentum of her insurgent challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, aggressively questioned his values, positions and voting history in the first Democratic presidential debate on Tuesday night, turning a showdown that had been expected to scrutinize her character into a forceful critique of his record." ...

Dan Balz & Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bernie Sanders clashed ... Tuesday night over national security, the economy, big banks and gun-control policy in a spirited but largely civil debate that underscored competing approaches to helping the middle class and leading the country." ...

... The Washington Post has a transcript of the debate here. ...

... The Guardian's summary (at 5:15 am) is helpful. ...

... New York "Times reporters will provide instant analysis and fact-checking during the debate. Coverage begins at 8:30 p.m. Follow along on your phone or computer at nytimes.com, facebook.com/nytpolitics and @NYTPolitics. Follow along during the day." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

Glenn Kessler & Michelle Lee of the Washington Post fact-check the candidates. Mostly quibbles about statistics, but a few substantive phony claims. ...

     (... CW: I am somewhat exercised about Clinton's blithe claim that Ed Snowden could have just gone the whistleblower route. Besides the legal issue Kessler covered here, I don't see what good it would have done for Snowden to alert Congress or an inspector general. A number of members of Congress already knew a good part of what Snowden leaked, but they never shared with the public the information Snowden revealed, information I think the public had a right to know & the government had an obligation to fix. Nor did they accomplish reforms to rein in the NSA. No, I'm no fan of Snowden's; I think he went overboard & was grossly incautious. But a large portion of what news media have published was surely in the public interest.)

... Dana Milbank writes what is probably the Villagers' collective assessment of the debate performances: "Hillary Clinton was a head shorter than her rivals when they lined up on stage.... But after that moment, she towered over them. Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley was preachy and self-righteous. Former Virginia senator Jim Webb kept complaining that he wasn't getting enough time to talk. Former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee was more quirky spectator than participant. And Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont shouted as if he were unaware that he had a microphone." What say you? ...

... Jonathan Chait: "Clinton demonstrated that she was, by far, the best presidential candidate on stage.... She is not great at politics, as even many of her supporters concede. (Earlier today, Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni reported, 'Nearly every one of 50 advisers, donors, Democratic operatives and friends we interviewed for this story thought Clinton was a mediocre candidate who would make a good president....') But she is not as awful at it as she has appeared for most of 2015. After the debate, she again resembles what she appeared to be at the campaign's outset: the all-but-certain Democratic nominee." ...

... Rebecca Traister of New York: "[Sanders] gave [Clinton] the night's biggest Valentine, with his declaration that 'The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,' but she responded in kind, with genuine gratitude and a warm smile. The truth is, Sanders has offered Clinton -- and Democrats -- a million gifts so far this season. Among the most valid fears was that Hillary's candidacy would go unchallenged, would proceed as a coronation." ...

... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "Clinton didn't have the passion of Sanders or the poetry of O'Malley's sign-off, but she had something else: the self-confidence and killer instinct of a politician who has been down this route before." ...

... D. D. Guttenplan of the Nation: "... over the course of the night [Sanders'] answers ... revealed the fundamental difference between his approach and Clinton's. Although she described herself as 'a progressive,' Clinton typifies all that is good -- and bad -- about Democratic liberalism. She wants to tinker, and tweak, and make the system fairer. Sanders wants to tear it down, and to do that he really will need a movement, not just a mobilization." ...

... Eric Holthaus points out that Hillary Clinton is not going to be the "Environment President." ...

... Gabriel Sherman of New York: "Unfortunately for [Vice President] Biden, Hillary Clinton's adult performance just made it a lot harder for him to take a seat at the table.... And, if she aces next week's Benghazi hearing on Capitol Hill -- and many Democrats I spoke to expect she will -- then she would have effectively eliminated any remaining arguments for a Biden run. Unless, of course, the ongoing FBI investigation into the security of her email server ends in a bombshell that instantly blows open the door. But for now, Biden looks left out in the cold." ...

... Edward-Issac Dovere of Politico: "Now, Biden's orbit has put out word that he's going to take another week to make a decision -- right up against Clinton's appearance in front of the Benghazi Committee that once seemed like it could become an embarrassing inquisition, but that she's now already framing a tedious partisan fishing expedition." ...

     ... CW: It's probably worth noting that Clinton, et al., had no trouble dispatching Biden in 2008. He dropped out of the race January 3, after getting less than one percent of the Iowa caucus vote. I really can't see any big advantage Biden has over Clinton, other than "his name isn't Clinton." ...

... Seth Stevenson of Slate critiques Donald Trump's critique of the debate: "It's like Trump thinks the election is American Idol, and he's somehow both Kelly Clarkson and Simon Cowell at the same time." Humorous. And true: Trump does see the election as "American Idol." ...

Carrie Dann of NBC News: Donald Trump "will host NBC's 'Saturday Night Live' on November 7, the show announced Tuesday." ...

     ... CW: I can't be sure, but I'd say Shep Smith does not think this is a good idea:

Andy Borowitz: "The Democrats who participated in the first Democratic Presidential debate of the 2016 campaign garnered a scathing review from the retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who said that none of them offered a concrete plan to protect the Earth from an invasion of bloodthirsty alien dragons." ...

... CW: Actually, Andy, what Doc Sleepy might have said is that "none of them offered a concrete plan to forestall the End of Days." And, no, this is not satire. ...

... GOP Voters Opt for the Crazy. Nick Gass of Politico: "Ben Carson is drawing ever closer to Donald Trump among likely Republican primary voters, according to the results of the latest Fox News poll released Tuesday evening. The retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon took 23 percent to Trump's 24 percent, followed by 10 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 9 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 5 percent each for Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 3 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Other candidates earned 1 percent or less, with 7 percent undecided."

** Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker on how the partisan Benghaaazi! committee walked away from an opportunity to highlight President Obama & Secretary Clinton's failure to plan for post-Qaddafi Libya in the same way President Bush had no plan for post-Saddam Iraq. ...

... CW: Here's what we know after decades of misadventures in the Middle East: (1) After deposing a dictator or quasi-dictator, Western micro-management of the "transition" doesn't work. (2) After deposing a dictator or quasi-dictator, leaving the locals to their own devices doesn't work.

David Crary of the AP: "Responding to a furor over undercover videos, Planned Parenthood said Tuesday that it would no longer accept payments to cover the costs of the programs that make fetal tissue available for research.... Planned Parenthood said the videos were deceptively edited and denied seeking any payments beyond legally permitted reimbursement of costs. The new policy -- forgoing even permissible reimbursement -- was outlined in a letter sent Tuesday by Planned Parenthood's president, Cecile Richards, to Dr. Francis S. Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health." ...

... CW: This is pretty sad. I'm extremely sorry Planned Parenthood succumbed to Republican intimidation. The governmental body that authorized reimbursement is the very one that bludgeoned Planned Parenthood to forego it. Their costs of maintaining & transferring the tissue will mean less money to provide other reproductive services. ...

     ... Update: See Victoria D.'s comment below.

Mujib Mashal of the New York Times: In Afghanistan, ISIS is peeling off Taliban, often by paying bonuses to out-of-work young men. "In a series of quick strikes, the Islamic State fighters began driving out local Taliban units, and officials say the splinter group now has a clear foothold across several districts in eastern Nangarhar Province, in rugged terrain on the border with Pakistan that had long been mostly out of government control. The fighters may mostly be former Taliban, but they appear to have wholeheartedly taken up the calculated cruelty that the Islamic State has become known for, consolidating their hold with a brutality that has been shocking even by the standards of the Afghan insurgency." CW: Ceaseless war. From horrible to worse.

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

It isn't only Donald Trump who treats the presidential race like a season of "American Idol." Paul Krugman: "The commentariat seems to have turned on a dime. After trashing Hillary Clinton nonstop, they're all talking her up. And you can see why, given the revelations that (a) the whole Benghazi thing, including the email obsession, was a partisan witch hunt and (b) Clinton herself is smart, articulate, and has a good sense of humor. But the odd thing about these revelations is that they weren't at all revelatory... Anyway, it's quite sad that after all these years political coverage still treats the momentous issue of who will lead the world's most powerful nation like a high school popularity contest."

Dan Merica & Sunlen Serfaty of CNN demonstrate how to profile a candidate's spouse. Rule 1: Don't say anything about her. Rebecca Traister: "The profile is a decent length -- more than 900 words. Here's how many of those words are devoted to describing anything about Jane Sanders that is not related to how she met, reflects, works with, believes in, helps, or otherwise bolsters her husband: 25. I'm actually being generous here because I counted their mention that she was 'born in Brooklyn' even though that seems to have only been included because her birthplace was 'a few blocks from the man who would be her future husband.'" ...

... Here's a CNN segment where we learn Jane is Bernie's "secret weapon." ...

... CW: Best argument I can think of for Hillary for President. The press has already taken a bit of interest in her spouse. Maybe because he isn't a wife. Please don't think that discrimination against women is limited to curtailing reproductive rights, job discrimination, lesser pay, etc. The authors of this "profile" are young people. One might hope -- since they grew up in an era when becoming a wife no longer meant legally ceasing to be a woman with individual rights -- they would recognize that the candidate's wife is an actual person. But no.

Beyond the Beltway

Erik Eckholm of the New York Times: "A jury late Tuesday awarded more than $5 million in damages to two police officers who were severely wounded with a pistol that a local gun shop sold to a straw buyer in 2009."

News Ledes

New York Times: "A Scottish nurse who seemed to recover from Ebola 10 months ago has been rehospitalized and is now critically ill, the Royal Free Hospital in London reported Wednesday. Scientists have long known that the Ebola virus can persist for months in certain tissues of the body that are relatively protected from the immune system, including the eyes and the testes."

Washington Post: "Thousands of Israeli soldiers and border police fanned out across major cities and security forces began to erect checkpoints to close off Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem on Wednesday to stem a wave of Palestinian attacks against Israelis. Military officials say the use of hundreds of Israeli soldiers along highways and in residential areas is the first such deployment in more than a decade, since the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada, in the early 2000s."