The Commentariat -- Nov. 25, 2013

Mark Landler of the New York Times: "The preliminary deal with Iran is a seminal moment for President Obama, presenting the chance to chart a new American course in the Middle East for the first time in more than three decades." ...

... David Sanger of the New York Times: "The interim accord struck with Iran on Sunday interrupts the country's nuclear progress for the first time in nearly a decade, but requires Iran to make only a modest down payment on the central problem. The deal does not roll back the vast majority of the advances Iran has made in the past five years, which have drastically shortened what nuclear experts call its 'dash time' to a bomb -- the minimum time it would take to build a weapon if Iran's supreme leader or military decided to pursue that path." ...

... Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "The deal [Secretary of State John] Kerry was instrumental in cutting is a diplomatic coup, even if its effectiveness and durability remain in doubt. It sets new boundaries for Iran's disputed nuclear program that represent significant compromises and concessions for Iran as well as the international coalition that suspects it of seeking nuclear weapons. Perhaps more important, the agreement opens a crack in the hostility and suspicion hardened over more than 30 years of American diplomatic estrangement from Iran." ...

... Julian Borger & Saaed Dehghan of the Guardian: "A historic agreement on Iran's nuclear programme was made possible by months of unprecedented secret meetings between US and Iranian officials, in further signs of the accelerating detente between two of the world's most adversarial powers, it emerged on Sunday." ...

... Fred Kaplan of Slate: "The Iranian nuclear deal struck Saturday night is a triumph. It contains nothing that any American, Israeli, or Arab skeptic could reasonably protest. Had George W. Bush negotiated this deal, Republicans would be hailing his diplomatic prowess, and rightly so." ...

... So naturally, John Mr. Mustache Bolton, our former recess-appointed embarrassing Ambassador to the U.N. & high-ranking war monger, calls the deal an "abject surrender by the United States." ...

... AND Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is "disappointed" with the deal. More here. ...

... PLUS. Bernie Becker of the Hill: "Top lawmakers on both side of the aisle on Sunday voiced skepticism about the newly struck agreement with Iran, and vowed to keep up the pressure with sanctions."

Amy Davidson of the New Yorker: "Not for the first time, Obama has been slow to realize the effect, at every stage, of his knockdown fight with the Republican Party over policy.... Health-care reform is the President's signature legislative achievement, and a historic one. To preserve it, he needs to fight for it politically, state by state. This time, the Obama brand alone isn't enough." ...

... Paul Krugman: "In California we can see what health reform will look like, beyond the glitches. And it's going to work." ...

... Bad News for the Turtle. Stephanie McCrummen of the Washington Post: "On the campaign trail, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell was still blasting the new health-care law as unsalvageable. At the White House, President Obama was still apologizing for the botched federal Web site. But in [Kentucky,] a state where the rollout has gone smoothly, and in a county [Breathitt,] that is one of the poorest and unhealthiest in the country, [ACA "navigator"] Courtney Lively has been busy signing people up.... Although she once had to dispel a rumor that enrolling involved planting a microchip in your arm, and though she avoids calling the new law 'Obamacare' in a red state, most people need little persuading. ...

... Corporations Are People, My Friend. Sebelius v. Hobby Lobby. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: The Supreme Court will decide on Tuesday whether or not to hear appeals in cases in which corporations have successfully claimed that have a First Amendment right to deny on religious grounds paying for employee contraceptive coverage. Experts say the Court will likely hear at least one of the cases. ...

... ObamaCare, All the Time. Elias Isquith of Salon: Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) tweeted immediately after the announcement of the Iran accord that the White House cut the deal to "distract attention" from ObamaCare. ...

... Andy Borowitz: "The Supreme Leader of Iran, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, told reporters today his nation agreed to a deal on its nuclear program in the hopes that it would distract attention from the trouble-plagued rollout of Obamacare." CW: Note that thanks to Sen. Cornyn, satire cannot top reality. Borowitz's "report" is no less accurate than Cornyn's tweet.

It will poison the atmosphere of the Senate. -- Sen. Ted Cruz, on filibuster reform

Help me. I can't stop laughing. -- Constant Weader ...

... Mike Lillis & Bernie Becker of the Hill: "The gradual diminishment of the filibuster is inevitable now that Democrats have set off the 'nuclear option,' experts say, and that could have much broader ramifications down the line." ...

... ** Alex Pareene of Salon does a crackerjack job of debunking the nuclear vapors of the Village People. ...

... Michael Lind, in Salon, on the good old days of bipartisanship: "The difference between 2013 and 1963 is that in the earlier period liberals and conservatives were found in both of the two parties, which still reflected the geographic realignment that had produced the Civil War. The Democrats, still based in the South, had their conservative Southern and Midwestern members, while the Republicans, still the northern party of Lincoln, had many liberal members." Liberals & conservatives were polarized then as now, but liberals & moderate Republicans often voted together as did conservative Republicans & Democrats. ...

... Elise Viebeck of the Hill: "Kathleen Sebelius may become the biggest loser in the Senate's approval of filibuster reform. The Health and Human Services (HHS) secretary has kept her job despite the botched rollout of ObamaCare's insurance exchanges, but it will now be easier for Obama to replace her."

Siobhan Gorman of the Wall Street Journal: "Shortly after former government contractor Edward Snowden revealed himself in June as the source of leaked National Security Agency documents, the agency's director, Gen. Keith Alexander, offered to resign, according to a senior U.S. official. The offer ... was declined by the Obama administration. But it shows the degree to which Mr. Snowden's revelations have shaken the NSA's foundations -- unlike any event in its six-decade history, including the blowback against domestic spying in the 1970s." CW Note: Firewalled; if you can't access the story via the link, cut & paste a line from the text into Google search.

Oliver Knox of Yahoo! News: "More than 230,000 complaints have poured into the fledgling Consumer Financial Protection Bureau in the past two years, with mortgages and debt collection topping the list of grievances. But CFPB director Richard Cordray told Yahoo News in an exclusive interview that he wants Americans to complain more.... [The complaints] are pouring in at a good clip -- 10,000-12,000 per month through http://www.consumerfinance.gov/complaint/ and by phone at (855) 411-CFPB (2372)."

Jim Kuhnhenn of the AP: "President Barack Obama ... offered a rare self-assessment while criticizing congressional Republicans as an 'impediment' to governing during the start of a West Coast fundraising tour for the Democratic Party.... Obama arrived Sunday evening in Seattle. He also planned stops in San Francisco and Los Angeles, raising money for House and Senate Democrats as well as the national party."

Tom Heneghan of Reuters: "Germany's Roman Catholic bishops plan to push ahead with proposed reforms to reinstate divorced and remarried parishioners despite a warning from the Vatican's top doctrinal official, according to a senior cleric."

Presidential Race 2016

How to Pick a President -- Look in the Mirror

I think it's got to be an outsider. I think both the presidential and the vice presidential nominee should either be a former or current governor, people who have done successful things in their states, who have taken on big reforms, who are ready to move America forward. -- Gov. Scott Walker (RTP-Wis.), last week when asked to describe the "ideal Republican presidential candidate"

What I think the next president should be is someone who is leading the fight for free-market principles and the Constitution, someone who's listening to the American people, not listening to the established politicians. -- Sen. Ted Cruz [RTP-Texas]

I think they want someone outside of, you know, what's been going on. For example, someone like myself who has been promoting term limits. -- Sen. Rand Paul [RTP-Ky.], last week, on the type of presidential candidate who would appeal to voters

News Ledes

Washington Post: "Efforts by the United State and Afghanistan to finalize a long-term security arrangement appeared on the brink of collapse Monday as Afghan President Hamid Karzai made a new set of demands, and the Obama administration said it would be forced to begin planning for a complete withdrawal of all U.S. forces at the end of 2014. In a two-hour meeting here, Susan E. Rice, President Obama's top national security adviser, told Karzai that if he failed to sign the bilateral security agreement by the end of this year, the United States would have 'no choice' but withdrawal, according to a statement by the National Security Council...."

New York Times: The Connecticut state's attorney has issued an investigative report on Adam Lanza, the shooter in the Sandy Hook Elementary mass murder. The report found no motive but reveals detailed into the bizarre behavior of Adam & the strange relationship between his mother Nancy Lanza & him. The report, via the NYT, is here.

New York Times: Michael McVey, "a school superintendent in Steubenville, Ohio, was indicted Monday for [felony] obstruction in the rape of a 16-year-old girl by two high school football stars, who were convicted in April in a case that drew national attention and outrage over the crime and the way photos and videos of the episode made their way onto social media.... Three other adults, including an elementary school principal, were indicted on lesser charges."

AFP: " Japan warned Sunday of the danger of 'unpredictable events' and South Korea voiced regret following China's unilateral declaration of an air defence zone over areas claimed by Tokyo and Seoul."

San Antonio Express-News: "A San Antonio police officer was arrested Saturday and accused of raping a 19-year-old woman on the South Side [of San Antonio, Texas,] early the day before. At a news conference Saturday, police said the officer has been accused of sexual assault before. Jackie Len Neal, 40, was arrested on a charge of felony sexual assault.... Neal was released on $20,000 bond."

Today's Munch Prize Goes to ...

Last week, Frank Rich asked this:

How could a president whose signature achievements include the health-care law and two brilliantly tech-centric presidential campaigns screw this up so badly? How could he say even as late as September 26 that the site would work 'the same way you shop for a TV on Amazon'? How could he repeatedly make the false promise that all Americans could keep their insurance plans, and then take so long to recognize that he was wrong and mobilize to correct it? This is hardly Kathleen Sebelius’s fault. It is Barack Obama’s fault — a failure of management for sure, and possibly one of character. There is something rotten in the inner-management cocoon of the White House, and if the president doesn’t move to correct it, his situation will truly be hopeless for the rest of this term.

"A failure of character"?? That seemed rather over-the-top. I considered Rich a candidate for the Munch Prize, but I so value his opinion that I couldn't just dismiss his charge as the usual hyperbole.

Rich points out that the President was claiming days before the big Healthcare.gov fail that using the Website would be as easy as ordering small appliances online. It seems plausible, if dismaying, that White House & HHS staff kept the president in the dark -- that he had no idea, days before the launch of the Website -- that it was a giant clusterfuck. Kathleen Sebelius claimed as much when Sanjay Gupta interviewed her in late October:

CNN's Dr. Sanjay Gupta asked when the President first learned about the considerable issues with the Obamacare website. Sebelius responded that it was in "the first couple of days" after the site went live October 1. 'But not before that?' Gupta followed up. To which Sebelius replied, 'No, sir.'

But what about that claim, "If you like your health plan you can keep it"? Surely the President knew that wasn't true. Indeed, the record makes pretty clear that the President did understand this. The last time he made the flat-out claim that people could keep the policies they liked was way back in April 2010, barely a week after passage of the ACA: 

And if you like your insurance plan, you will keep it.  No one will be able to take that away from you.  It hasn’t happened yet.  It won’t happen in the future. -- Barack Obama, speech in Portland, Maine, April 1, 2010

Let's call that an April Fools joke. And let's accept that it is possible and understandable that on that date, the President -- and his speechwriter -- weren't aware this was a false statement. The ACA is some 2,000 pages long. Maybe the President hadn't read all the fine print.

After that date, President Obama began subtly changing his message to align it with the facts. The next time the President made any comment about the supposed inviolability of current health insurance policies, according to PolitiFact, was after the Supreme Court ruled the ACA constitutional:

If you’re one of the more than 250 million Americans who already have health insurance, you will keep your health insurance — this law will only make it more secure and more affordable. -- Barack Obama, June 28, 2012

Notice how the President shifted his message. He was no longer claiming you will keep the same policy; in fact, he's implying -- to those who are good at reading between the lines -- that you're going to get a new & better policy.

The President continued this theme throughout the 2012 campaign, never specifically promising "you can keep it." Here's the language the President used in a typical campaign speech:

If you have health insurance, the only thing that changes for you is you’re more secure because insurance companies can't drop you when you get sick. -- Barack Obama, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, July 6, 2012

Post-campaign, that language too evolved. Here is a remark from the September 26, 2013, speech Rich cites:

... If you already have health care, you don’t have to do anything. -- Barack Obama, Largo, Maryland

"You don't have to do anything." Uh, well, until your insurer sends you that cancellation notice. Or your employer tells you this year's plans aren't like the old plans.

Is there some duplicity here? Duplicity that rises to the level of a character issue? It depends upon how much control you imagine President Obama has over the White House Website. Here is surely the most confounded graf that has ever appeared on the Website. This is not some relic from 2010. It is on the White House Website today:

For those Americans who already have health insurance, the only changes you will see under the law are new benefits, better protections from insurance company abuses, and more value for every dollar you spend on health care. If you like your plan you can keep it and you don’t have to change a thing due to the health care law. The President addressed concerns from Americans who have received letters of policy cancellations or changes from their insurance companies in an interview with NBC News, watch the video or read a transcript. (Emphasis added.)

A character issue? I seriously doubt President Obama has read the text of the White House Website. He has other things to do.

Rich claims, "There is something rotten in the inner-management cocoon of the White House, and if the president doesn’t move to correct it, his situation will truly be hopeless for the rest of this term." I have to give Rich that. The graf above is an exemplar of double-speak and rank incompetence. Obviously, it was updated on or after November 7, 2013, when the President spoke to Chuck Todd during the height of the uproar over the President's "broken promise." Whoever updated the Website should start updating his resume' instead. Firing that lamebrain would be one "move to correct" the "rotten" thing in "the inner-management cocoon."

But I do not think a misstatement -- one the President hasn't uttered since days after this very complex law passed -- speaks ill of the President's character. It is true that Obama's shift to a more accurate claim has been, well, shifty. "You don't have to do anything" isn't precisely true, either. Most insureds have to "do something" to get continued coverage. But I think it's fair to interpret Obama's new line to mean, "You don't have to do anything different from what you've done in the past." It would be really splitting hairs to insist that the President deliver a speech in the form of a contract. I find his latest shorthand acceptable. It is not, in my opinion, evidence of a "possible character flaw."

Munch Prize recipient responds to award announcement.Indeed, Rich himself makes a false claim when he accuses Obama of "repeatedly [making] the false promise that all Americans could keep their insurance plans." Rich should have said, "Obama used to make the false promise...." But in the form of his remark, Rich implies that Obama has made the false promise recently. He has not.

So, Frank Rich, Congratulations. Reluctantly, I must award you today's Munch Prize.

The Commentariat -- Nov. 24, 2013

Failure may have a thousand fathers, but CGI Federal, the main software contractor on Healthcare.gov, is the Big Daddy of them all. Amy Goldstein & Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post report. CW: Goldstein & Eilperin don't say so, but some of CGI's excuses sound totally phony to me. For instance, they claim that they couldn't write key code because the adminstration hadn't established minimum insurance requirements. That's sort of like saying you can't code an app because you haven't decided what you will charge customers for it. Obviously, you can code dummy requirements & plug in the real ones later.

Michael Memoli of the Los Angeles Times on the new Democratic Senators who drove the filibuster change. 'When [Jeff] Merkley [Oregon], as a prospective candidate, first met with [Majority Leader Harry] Reid ahead of the 2008 election, he told the leader that filibuster reform was one of his top priorities. Reid put his head in his hands.... 'It's not about the filibuster,' Reid admonished the younger man. 'It's about the culture. We've got to change the culture.' Six years later, the culture is the same and the filibuster is gone." ...

... Leigh Ann Caldwell of CNN credits liberal bloggers for initiating filibuster reform.

Kate McDonough of Salon: Sen. "Marco Rubio [RTP-Fla.] over the weekend delivered the keynote address at a fundraising event for the Florida Family Policy Council, a conservative organization that promotes so-called ex-gay conversion therapy and believes that gay parents are a 'threat' to their children, among other odious views.... The organization ... also has a broader political agenda that includes abolishing reproductive rights and teaching creationist pseudo-science in public schools. Rubio ... used his address to explain why the separation of church and state is not even worth debating because 'God is everywhere' and 'doesn't need our permission to be anywhere.' Via Steve Benen. CW: Say, MAG, can I come up to Maine & stay at your place if I feed the sled dogs? Florida is really too embarrassing.

Juan Cole: "The decade-long Neoconservative plot to take the United States to war against Iran appears to have been foiled." Thanks to contributor safari for the link. See also today's News Ledes.

Norimitsu Onishi of the New York Times: "Nearly three years of bloody civil war in Syria have created what the United Nations, governments and international humanitarian organizations describe as the most challenging refugee crisis in a generation -- bigger than the one unleashed by the Rwandan genocide and laden with the sectarianism of the Balkan wars. With no end in sight in the conflict and with large parts of Syria already destroyed, governments and organizations are quietly preparing for the refugee crisis to last years."

Local News

Who Could Have Known? Jonathan Kaminsky of Reuters: "Significantly more drivers pulled over by police in Washington state are testing positive for marijuana since legalization of the drug's recreational use took effect in January, according to figures released this week by the Washington State Patrol."

Can a high-school teacher claim a First Amendment right to teach creationism, display Christian iconography in the classroom & defy his superiors' orders to cut it out? The teacher lost his case before the Ohio State Supreme Court. But. As Steve Benen writes, "This wouldn't appear to be a tough call. The U.S. Supreme Court has already ruled that, under the First Amendment, public schools cannot teach creationism as science -- a detail this teacher ignored. That, in conjunction with his brazen disregard for the school district's instructions, seems to make dismissal a no-brainer. But here's the thing that jumps out: it was a 4-3 ruling. In other words, three justices on the Ohio Supreme Court concluded that the teacher in question was justified in blowing off the school district, scientific cannon, modern biology, the religious liberties of his students, and legal precedent."

News Ledes

New York Times: "The United States and five other world powers announced a landmark accord Sunday morning that would temporarily freeze Iran's nuclear program and lay the foundation for a more sweeping agreement." ...

... Washington Post: "Israeli leaders denounced the interim Iranian nuclear pact signed by the United States and five world powers as an historic mistake that does little to reverse Iran's nuclear ambitions and instead makes the world a more dangerous place."

On the Afghan Front. Dubya's Handpicked President For Life Is Still Crazy. New York Times: "A grand council called by President Hamid Karzai approved a security agreement with the United States on Sunday, but the Afghan president said he wanted to keep negotiating, throwing into confusion and uncertainty future relations between the two countries."

Mavis Lever Batey. Undated photograph. Via the Scotsman.New York Times: Mavis Lever Batey, one of the real Bletchley Girls, died on November 12 at age 92. A fascinating woman. Her Los Angeles Times obituary is here.