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Friday, October 4, 2024

CNBC: “The U.S. economy added far more jobs than expected in September, pointing to a vital employment picture as the unemployment rate edged lower, the Labor Department reported Friday. Nonfarm payrolls surged by 254,000 for the month, up from a revised 159,000 in August and better than the 150,000 Dow Jones consensus forecast. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, down 0.1 percentage point.”

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Public Service Announcement

Washington Post: "Americans can again order free rapid coronavirus tests by mail, the Biden administration announced Thursday. People can request four free at-home tests per household through covidtests.gov. They will begin shipping Monday. The move comes ahead of an expected winter wave of coronavirus cases. The September revival of the free testing program is in line with the Biden administration’s strategy to respond to the coronavirus as part of a broader public health campaign to protect Americans from respiratory viruses, including influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), that surge every fall and winter. But free tests were not mailed during the summer wave, which wastewater surveillance data shows is now receding."

Washington Post: “Comedy news outlet the Onion — reinvigorated by new ownership over this year — is bringing back its once-popular video parodies of cable news. But this time, there’s someone with real news anchor experience in the chair. When the first episodes appear online Monday, former WAMU and MSNBC host Joshua Johnson will be the face of the resurrected 'Onion News Network.' Playing an ONN anchor character named Dwight Richmond, Johnson says he’s bringing a real anchor’s sense of clarity — and self-importance — to the job. 'If ONN is anything, it’s a news organization that is so unaware of its own ridiculousness that it has the confidence of a serial killer,' says Johnson, 44.” ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I'll be darned if I can figured out how to watch ONN. If anybody knows, do tell. Thanks.

Washington Post: “First came the surprising discovery that Earth’s atmosphere is leaking. But for roughly 60 years, the reason remained a mystery. Since the late 1960s, satellites over the poles detected an extremely fast flow of particles escaping into space — at speeds of 20 kilometers per second. Scientists suspected that gravity and the magnetic field alone could not fully explain the stream. There had to be another source creating this leaky faucet. It turns out the mysterious force is a previously undiscovered global electric field, a recent study found. The field is only about the strength of a watch battery — but it’s enough to thrust lighter ions from our atmosphere into space. It’s also generated unlike other electric fields on Earth. This newly discovered aspect of our planet provides clues about the evolution of our atmosphere, perhaps explaining why Earth is habitable. The electric field is 'an agent of chaos,' said Glyn Collinson, a NASA rocket scientist and lead author of the study. 'It undoes gravity.... Without it, Earth would be very different.'”

The New York Times lists Emmy winners. The AP has an overview story here.

New York Times: “Hvaldimir, a beluga whale who had captured the public’s imagination since 2019 after he was spotted wearing a harness seemingly designed for a camera, was found dead on Saturday in Norway, according to a nonprofit that worked to protect the whale.... [Hvaldimir] was wearing a harness that identified it as “equipment” from St. Petersburg. There also appeared to be a camera mount. Some wondered if the whale was on a Russian reconnaissance mission. Russia has never claimed ownership of the whale. If Hvaldimir was a spy, he was an exceptionally friendly one. The whale showed signs of domestication, and was comfortable around people. He remained in busier waters than are typical for belugas....” ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Oh, Lord, do not let Bobby Kennedy, Jr., near that carcass. ~~~

     ~~~ AP Update: “There’s no evidence that a well-known beluga whale that lived off Norway’s coast and whose harness ignited speculation it was a Russian spy was shot to death last month as claimed by animal rights groups, Norwegian police said Monday.... Police said that the Norwegian Veterinary Institute conducted a preliminary autopsy on the animal, which was become known as 'Hvaldimir,' combining the Norwegian word for whale — hval — and the first name of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 'There are no findings from the autopsy that indicate that Hvaldimir has been shot,' police said in a statement.”

New York Times: Botswana's “President Mokgweetsi Masisi grinned as he lifted the diamond, a 2,492-carat stone that is the biggest diamond unearthed in more than a century and the second-largest ever found, according to the Vancouver-based mining operator Lucara, which owns the mine where it was found. This exceptional discovery could bring back the luster of the natural diamond mining industry, mining companies and experts say. The diamond was discovered in the same relatively small mine in northeastern Botswana that has produced several of the largest such stones in living memory. Such gemstones typically surface as a result of volcanic activity.... The diamond will likely sell in the range of tens of millions of dollars....”

Click on photo to enlarge.

~~~ Guardian: "On a distant reef 16,000km from Paris, surfer Gabriel Medina has given Olympic viewers one of the most memorable images of the Games yet, with an airborne celebration so well poised it looked too good to be true. The Brazilian took off a thundering wave at Teahupo’o in Tahiti on Monday, emerging from a barrelling section before soaring into the air and appearing to settle on a Pacific cloud, pointing to the sky with biblical serenity, his movements mirrored precisely by his surfboard. The shot was taken by Agence France-Presse photographer Jérôme Brouillet, who said “the conditions were perfect, the waves were taller than we expected”. He took the photo while aboard a boat nearby, capturing the surreal image with such accuracy that at first some suspected Photoshop or AI." 

Washington Post: “'Mary Cassatt at Work' is a large and mostly satisfying exhibition devoted to the career of the great American artist beloved for her sensitive and often sentimental views of family life. The 'at work' in the title of the Philadelphia Museum of Art show references the curators’ interest in Cassatt’s pioneering effort to establish herself as a professional artist within a male-dominated field. Throughout the show, which includes some 130 paintings, pastels, prints and drawings, the wall text and the art on view stresses Cassatt’s fixation on art as a career rather than a pastime.... Mary Cassatt at Work is on view at the Philadelphia Museum of Art through Sept. 8. philamuseum.org

New York Times: “Bob Newhart, who died on Thursday at the age of 94, has been such a beloved giant of popular culture for so long that it’s easy to forget how unlikely it was that he became one of the founding fathers of stand-up comedy. Before basically inventing the hit stand-up special, with the 1960 Grammy-winning album 'The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart' — that doesn’t even count his pay-per-view event broadcast on Canadian television that some cite as the first filmed special — he was a soft-spoken accountant who had never done a set in a nightclub. That he made a classic with so little preparation is one of the great miracles in the history of comedy.... Bob Newhart holds up. In fact, it’s hard to think of a stand-up from that era who is a better argument against the commonplace idea that comedy does not age well.”

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Publisher & Editor: Marie Burns


Wednesday
Feb272013

The Commentariat -- Feb. 28, 2013

Obama 2.0. Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: "The Senate on Wednesday easily and, for the most part, affably confirmed President Obama's pick for Treasury secretary, Jacob J. Lew, just one day after the president's nominee for defense secretary narrowly survived a highly politicized confirmation vote." ...

... Martin Crutsinger of the AP: "Jacob Lew is scheduled to be sworn in Thursday as Treasury secretary and will have to hit the ground running. He is taking over the job just a day before huge automatic government spending cuts are set to take effect. He's likely to be involved with any negotiations to reverse the cuts, and also in budget talks next month to continue funding the government." ...

... Mark Felsenthal of Reuters: "President Barack Obama intends to name Edith Ramirez the chairwoman of the Federal Trade Commission, a White House official said on Thursday. Ramirez has been an FTC commissioner since April 2010. She was a Los Angeles lawyer specializing in business litigation before joining the commission."

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: A central provision of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 may be in peril, judging from tough questioning on Wednesday from the Supreme Court's more conservative members. Justice Antonin Scalia called the provision, which requires nine states, mostly in the South, to get federal permission before changing voting procedures, a 'perpetuation of racial entitlement.' Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. asked a skeptical question about whether people in the South are more racist than those in the North. Justice Anthony M. Kennedy asked how much longer Alabama must live 'under the trusteeship of the United States government.'" ...

... Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "The Supreme Court's conservative justices strongly suggested Wednesday that a key portion of the Voting Rights Act is no longer justified and the time had come for Southern states to be freed from special federal oversight." ...

... Lyle Denniston of SCOTUSblog recaps the Justices' remarks in the Voting Rights Act case, Shelby County v. Holder. ...

** Dana Milbank: "For a quarter-century, Antonin Scalia has been the reigning bully of the Supreme Court, but finally a couple of justices are willing to face him down. As it happens, the two manning up to take on Nino the Terrible are women: the court’s newest members, Sonia Sotomayor and Elena Kagan." ...

... ** Washington Post Editors: "Congress is empowered to write legislation enforcing the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments. But if Justice Scalia doubts the purity of lawmakers' motives, then apparently this power is limited. We wonder how the justice is able to discern what lay within the hearts of these 98 senators. We also wonder how many challenged acts of Congress would survive if the court saw fit to strike down any that were enacted by lawmakers considering, in part, their reelection prospects." CW: I thought Scalia's remarks about the intent of the Congress was even more outrageous than his claim that the Voting Rights Act is a "racial entitlement," & that's nearly as outrageous as one can get. His premise is that if he just doesn't like a law, he can change or void it. This is a flagrant violation of the Constitutional separation of powers.

... Racial discrimination is totally over, but state discrimination is horrible. Adam Serwer of Mother Jones: "Scalia worried that Section 5, and its unjustifiable discrimination against states, would continue in 'perpetuity.' But with the bailout provision, it's a relatively simply matter to escape the Section 5. To quote Roberts in a case striking down a school integration program, 'the way to stop discrimination on the basis of race is to stop discriminating on the basis of race.' Maybe instead of trying to gut the Voting Rights Act, Shelby County should try that." ...

... New York Times Editors: "If the Supreme Court substitutes its judgment for Congress’s, it will enable state and local governments to erode nearly half a century of civil rights gains." ...

The Racially Entitled. See Scalia.

... Are You Ready for Some Irony? Stephanie Condon of CBS News: "President Obama joined members of Congress today to unveil a new statue of civil rights icon Rosa Parks. With the full-length statue placed in the Capitol Building's Statuary Hall, Parks takes her 'rightful place among those who shaped this nation's course,' Mr. Obama said." ...

... Here's a brief AP video:

... Here's the whole ceremony, which I found quite moving. Even Mitch McConnell was okay:

Zachary Goldfarb & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "In a meeting planned for Friday, President Obama will push Republican congressional leaders to accept higher tax revenue in order to avoid deep spending cuts set to take effect on the same day." ...

... Andrew Taylor of the AP: "Across-the-board spending cuts all but certain, Republicans and Democrats in the Senate are staging a politically charged showdown designed to avoid public blame for any resulting inconvenience or disruption in government services. The two parties drafted alternative measures to replace the cuts, but officials conceded in advance the rival measures were doomed." ...

... David Dayen, now with Pacific Standard (???): yes, there are things the Obama administration could do to mitigate the cleaver approach the sequester takes, but they aren't gonna do it, at least not in the short term "Because making clear the impact of forced austerity may offer the best hope for discrediting and reversing it." Via Greg Sargent. ...

... In agreement with what we noted here the other day, Willie Herrmann, BuzzFeed's "data scientist," writes, "In terms of total reductions outlined in each report, the states facing the worst cuts skew heavily Republican. As a proportion of federal dollars received by each state (as detailed in a 2007 study), 11 of the 12 hardest-hit states -- and 17 of the top 25 -- went for Romney in last fall's election. Many states in the Southeast and portions of the Midwest will experience the worst damage, in addition to Alaska and Hawaii." ...

... ** Andy Sullivan of Reuters: "On paper, there's ... $85 billion in budget savings at a time when Washington continues to bleed red ink. In reality, the so-called 'sequester' is likely to yield less than half that much in the short term. In part, that has to do with the complex way the government handles its money. But it also reflects the probability that the spending cuts will hurt the economy, which in turn will lower tax revenue and drive up the costs of social safety-net programs like unemployment insurance. On top of that, federal agencies -- especially the Pentagon -- will have to pay penalties to suppliers if the sequester forced them to cancel contracts. Add it up, and the actual savings could be a lot less than budget hawks envision."

... Matt Yglesias States the Obvious. Deficit scolds -- David Brooks, Ron Fournier of the National Journal, etc. -- who seem to think "the president of the United States has ... the ability to pull a Jedi mind trick and force congressional opponents to agree to deals they don't favor.... It is Boehner, not Obama, who must lead and find a way to a solution. It is Boehner, not Obama, who has the ability to move Washington beyond the endless stale debate, and it is Boehner, not Obama, who is ultimately responsible for the success or failure of policymaking in the 113th Congress." ...

... Brendan Nyhan of the Columbia Journalism Review agrees with Yglesias & also prominently mentions what a bunch of dicks Brooks, et al., are. (Probably doesn't use the word "dicks." But that's what he means.) ...

... Paul Krugman has a funny take on the WashPo editorial, which both Yglesias & Nyhan cite. ...

... E. J. Dionne: "The air of establishment Washington is filled with talk that Obama must 'lead.' But Obama cannot force the House Republican majority to act if it doesn't want to. He is (fortunately) not a dictator. What Obama can do is expose the cause of this madness, which is the dysfunction of the Republican Party. Journalists don't like saying this because it sounds partisan. But the truth is the truth, whether it sounds partisan or not." Read his whole column. ...

... BUT forget about Brooks, Fournier, et al. It's All About Bob! Devin Dwyer of ABC News: "Woodward has been making the rounds to cable TV and print outlets accusing a 'very senior person' [probably Gene Sperling] in the administration of threatening him last week ahead of an op-ed he later published in the Washington Post attributing the idea for the automatic spending cuts to President Obama." Here's the "threat":

... CW: I don't usually recommend a story by Mike Allen & Jim VandeHei of Politico, & this one is full of bullshit, but it is a good indication of how right-wing reporters feel about the Obama White House. Reading how they & Woodward think the White House is "thin-skinned" is grounds for a chuckle. I loved the part where Bob says he wears big boy pants but such an ominous threat would cause lesser reporters to "tremble tremble." ...

     ... Update: Allen has now posted the e-mails between Sperling & Woodward. See if you think a cub reporter would "tremble tremble" upon reading Sperling's e-mail. Do read Woodward's response to Sperling.

... Ben Smith of BuzzFeed, who first IDed Sperling as the "threatening official": "Officials often threaten reporters that they will 'regret' printing something that is untrue, but Woodward took the remark as a threat." CW: For your own safety, Bob, no more midnight meetings in dimly-lit parking lots. Oh, wait. You haven't done that for decades. ...

     ... Max Read of Gawker: Bob's "reporting" is "now mostly just writing down what important people tell him in his kitchen. 'There is nothing less important about 'the sequester' than the question of whose idea it originally was,' Salon's Alex Pareene wrote yesterday. 'So, naturally, that is the question that much of the political press is obsessed with, to the exclusion of almost everything else.' Not everything else: also the question of the proper tone in which one is allowed to speak to Bob Woodward." ...

... Steve Benen: Woodward "repeated the claim on CNN, insisting, 'It was said very clearly, you will ''regret'' doing this.' And at it was this very moment when Bob Woodward put his credibility as a journalist on the line -- and lost.... He took a few words out of context in order to look like a victim of heavy-handed White House pressure, but now that the email itself is available, it's clear there was nothing threatening about Sperling's message and Woodward's efforts to suggest otherwise were deliberately deceptive. Indeed, in case facts still matter, what Sperling argued happened to be true -- Woodward had several key facts wrong."

Paul Krugman notes that in his testimony before Congress, Fed Chair Ben Bernanke agreed with Krugman's assessment of the impact of federal spending cuts in a weak economy. "... these remarks should give pause to all the people who imagine that 'nobody' except me and a couple of other crazies think that we're paying far too much attention to short-term deficits." CW: hate to tell you, Paul, but Joe Scarborough does not follow Fed Chair Congressional testimony.

Steven Greenhouse of the New York Times: "The A.F.L.-C.I.O. ... has issued an apparent endorsement of the Keystone XL pipeline -- apparent because it enthusiastically called for expanding the nation's pipeline system, without specifically mentioning Keystone.... The labor federation's embrace of the pipeline, even with some ambiguity, will give President Obama some political cover as he weighs whether to approve the pipeline...."

Thomas Edsell takes another look at racial prejudice in the U.S. Some studies show that the "Obama Effect" was to dramatically reduced white prejudice against blacks, but it appears the effect may last only as long as a campaign does.

Congressional Race

Katharine Seelye of the New York Times: Massachusetts "Republicans and Democrats are bracing for bruising primaries over the next few weeks as five candidates begin to campaign in earnest to fill the United States Senate seat left vacant by John Kerry's departure to become secretary of state."


Marin Cogan
of The New Republic on "the psycho-sexual ordeal of [women] reporting in Washington." No, female reporters usually are not anxious to "date" their sources, & when they express interest in their subjects during interviews it's because during interviews the reporters ask questions. Via Greg Sargent.

News Ledes

New York Times: "A meticulous new analysis of Antarctic ice suggests that the sharp warming that ended the last ice age "occurred in lock step with increases of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, the latest of many indications that the gas is a powerful influence on the earth's climate." Not meticulous enough for Jim Inhofe. They drive cars in D.C. & it still snows there.

AP: "A self-described pimp was arrested Thursday in Los Angeles, ending a manhunt that began after a vehicle-to-vehicle shooting and spectacular, fiery crash that killed three people on the Las Vegas Strip a week ago, police said. Ammar Harris, 26, surrendered to a team of police and federal agents who found him inside a North Hollywood apartment after a woman answered the door, authorities said."

Reuters: "Pope Benedict left the Vatican on Thursday and headed to the papal summer residence where he will become the first pontiff in six centuries to resign instead of ruling for life."

fell more than expected last week, suggesting some traction in the labor market recovery. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 344,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday." ...

 

... BUT Reuters: "The U.S. economy barely grew in the fourth quarter although a slightly better performance in exports and fewer imports led the government to scratch an earlier estimate that showed an economic contraction. Gross domestic product expanded at a 0.1 percent annual rate, the Commerce Department said on Thursday, missing the 0.5 percent gain forecast by analysts in a Reuters poll."

AP: "The Obama administration said Thursday that it will provide the Syrian opposition with an additional $60 million in assistance and -- in a significant policy shift -- will for the first time provide nonlethal aid like food and medical supplies to aid rebels battling to oust President Bashar Assad."

Reuters: "Two major Chinese military websites, including that of the Defense Ministry, were subject to about 144,000 hacking attacks a month last year, almost two-thirds of which came from the United States, the ministry said on Thursday."

AP: "Pope Benedict XVI promised his 'unconditional reverence and obedience' to his successor in his final words to cardinals Thursday, a poignant and powerful farewell delivered hours before he becomes the first pope in 600 years to resign."

 

Tuesday
Feb262013

The Commentariat -- Feb. 27, 2013

My column in the New York Times eXaminer is on David Brooks' latest hogwash.

Mark Murray of NBC News: "... according to the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll..., President Barack Obama finds himself in a much stronger position than his Republican adversaries.... Strong majorities support the broad outlines of Obama's top domestic priorities pp on immigration, gun control and raising the minimum wage.... What's more, the polls shows the Democratic Party beats the Republican Party on almost every issue...."

Donna Cassata of the AP: "Chuck Hagel takes charge at the Defense Department with deep budget cuts looming and Republican opponents still doubtful that he's up to the job. Hagel is expected to be sworn in Wednesday and is likely to address the staff in his first day as defense secretary." ...

... Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: "The Senate confirmed Chuck Hagel as secretary of defense on Tuesday after a bruising bout with Republicans, while President Obama's choice to be Treasury secretary headed to the floor with bipartisan support, suggesting that the Republican blockade against the administration's second-term nominees was beginning to ease. After escaping a filibuster by members of his own party, Mr. Hagel, a former Republican senator from Nebraska, prevailed in a 58-to-41 vote -- the narrowest margin for any defense secretary on record.... Just four Republicans voted for his confirmation: Thad Cochran of Mississippi, Mike Johanns of Nebraska, [Rand] Paul [of Kentucky] and Richard Shelby of Alabama.... Hours earlier, the Senate Finance Committee approved the nomination of Jacob J. Lew as Treasury secretary on a 19-to-5 vote." ...

... Contributor James S. remarked on Paul's "yea" vote in a comment to yesterday's Commentariat: "... Aqua Buddha Man voted 'yea.' Does this mean he hasn't figured out the buttons on his chamber desk yet, or what?" May be. As Dana Milbank notes today in his column on the multiple smears Hagel endured from fellow Republican Senators, "Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) gave credence to a hoax, published credulously in the conservative press, that Hagel had received funds from a fictitious group called Friends of Hamas. Asked about this by radio host Hugh Hewitt, Paul replied: 'You know, I saw that information today, also, and that is more and more concerning.'" Evidently, Paul got over his fake concerns, perhaps when somebody told him they were based on a completely phony report by what I suppose is one of Paul's favorite "news" outlets. ...

... Dave Weigel of Slate (who has described himself as a libertarian) explains it's a libertarian thing. I still can't see the logic of why -- as contributor Diane points out -- Paul voted nay on cloture hours before he voted yea on confirmation, the only Senator to do so. I think the point is that often there is little logic to Paul's "principled votes." He does what he does when he does it. If he can't find a libertarian rationale for his vote, he can find a conservative one. ...

... Funny tweet from Matt Yglesias in response to Hagel confirmation; responses to Yglesias's tweet are good, too. Via Jonathan Bernstein.

Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: Today the Supreme Court "will review -- for the sixth time since passage in 1965 -- Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act, which mandates that federal authorities pre-approve any changes in voting laws here [in nine] states and numerous jurisdictions with a history of discrimination. It has survived each previous time." ...

... Washington Post Editors: "In reauthorizing the Voting Rights Act seven years ago, a bipartisan majority of lawmakers -- 390 to 33 in the House, 98 to 0 in the Senate -- determined that the evidence justified maintaining pre-clearance. Shelby County and its allies have not given the high court reason enough to repudiate Congress's resounding judgment." ...

... Rep. John Lewis (D-Georgia), in a Washington Post op-ed, on why we still need the Voting Rights Act. Lewis explains what specifically is at issue in the case before the Supremes & writes, "It is ironic and almost emblematic that the worst perpetrators are those seeking to be relieved of the responsibilities of justice. Instead of accepting the ways our society has changed and dealing with the implications of true democracy, they would rather free themselves of oversight and the obligations of equal justice." ...

... Adam Serwer of Mother Jones: John Roberts has a long history of fighting the Voting Rights Act.

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday turned back a challenge to a federal law that broadened the government’s power to eavesdrop on international phone calls and e-mails. The decision, by a 5-to-4 vote that divided along ideological lines, probably means the Supreme Court will never rule on the constitutionality of that 2008 law.... Writing for the majority, Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. said that the journalists, lawyers and human rights advocates who challenged the constitutionality of the law could not show they had been harmed by it and so lacked standing to sue."

Bob Woodward Extends His Anti-Obama Campaign. Kevin Robillard of Politico: "The Washington Post’s Bob Woodward attacked President Barack Obama on Wednesday, saying the commander-in-chief's decision not to deploy an aircraft carrier because of budget cuts is 'a kind of madness.' ... The Pentagon announced earlier this month the U.S.S. Harry Truman, which was supposed to leave for the Persian Gulf, will remain stateside due to budget concerns. The sequester, which will cut billions in defense spending, is scheduled to hit on Friday." ...

The Virginian-Pilot: "Thousands of blue-collar jobs will be lost if federal lawmakers don't strike a deal by the end if the week to avoid sweeping budget cuts, President Barack Obama told a crowd of about 3,000 shipyard workers this afternoon. Standing in front of a massive propeller in a cavernous facility used to build submarines, Obama called on Congress to compromise or risk harming the economy in Hampton Roads," Virginia. ...

... An excellent, easy-to-understand post by Sharon Parrott of the Center on Budget & Policy Priorities on the impacts of the sequester: "Taken together, the [2011 Budget Control Act] cuts and sequestration would cut discretionary spending 14 percent below the 2010 level in inflation-adjusted terms...." Apparently, Republicans cannot do this math. ...

... Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times: "The federal government, the nation's largest consumer and investor, is cutting back at a pace exceeded in the last half-century only by the military demobilizations after the Vietnam War and the cold war."

... CW: Here's Brian Beutler's prediction on how the sequester will come down. It sounds plausible to me, though I would not be bold enough to bet a nickel on any prediction:

The most important factor in this fight is probably the reality that Obama doesn't have to face voters again and thus is willing to veto sequestration replacement bills if they're composed of spending cuts alone. Congressional Democrats are fully aware of this.... So sequestration will begin.... And then the tension sequestration was intended to create -- and in fact has created -- between defense hawks and the rest of the GOP will intensify and actually splinter the party. If that doesn't happen quickly enough, then the sequestration fight will become tangled up in the need to renew funding for the federal government at the end of March. If Republicans don't cave before then, they'll precipitate a 1995-style government shutdown, public opinion will actually begin to control the outcome, and it'll be game over. ...

... Greg Sargent adds, "Ultimately, what will be decisive is how public opinion plays out through March. The current environment suggests Republicans have a lot more work to do to shift the basic dynamic in their favor than Dems do." ...

... ** STILL, as Jonathan Chait of New York writes, "... deciphering the GOP strategy is as mysterious as gaming out the plans of a tiny band of warring clans in some mountainous region of Afghanistan.... Deepening the bafflement is that the Republicans' apparent approach bears no relation either to political reality or to the party's stated goals. President Obama is offering up something -- hundreds of billions of dollars in cuts to Social Security and Medicare -- that Republicans say they want and which (because of their unpopularity) they have proven unable to obtain even when they have had full control of government. They are instead undertaking a public showdown against a figure who is vastly more popular and trusted, who possesses a better platform to communicate his message, and whose message itself ... commands overwhelmingly higher public support." Read the whole post. ...

... Sarah Binder, in the Monkey Cage: "I suspect the GOP strategy seems inscrutable because we are overestimating the degree of consensus within (and between) the House and Senate Republican conferences. In the House, for sure, I see no evidence that Speaker Boehner has the votes to re-pass the sequester replacement from last December, explaining why Boehner keeps claiming that the House has already acted even though the bill died at the close of the 112th Congress.... By carving out protection for major (Social Security and Medicare) federal benefits, narrowly tailored education benefits, and low-income support programs, Democratic priorities are partially protected.... Democratic legislators would surely prefer the sequester cuts to the alternative cuts passed in December by House Republicans, which Democrats uniformly voted against."

Kirk Semple of the New York Times: "Federal immigration officials have released hundreds of detainees from immigration detention centers around the country in a highly unusual effort that is intended to save money as automatic budget cuts loom in Washington, officials said Tuesday. The government has not dropped the deportation cases against the immigrants, however. The detainees have been freed on supervised release while their cases continue in court...."

Fiction writer Louise Erdrich, in a New York Times op-ed: "The Justice Department reports that one in three Native women is raped over her lifetime, while other sources report that many Native women are too demoralized to report rape. Perhaps this is because federal prosecutors decline to prosecute 67 percent of sexual abuse cases, according to the Government Accountability Office.... More than 80 percent of sex crimes on reservations are committed by non-Indian men, who are immune from prosecution by tribal courts." The Senate passed the reauthorization Violence Against Women Act -- again -- but the House has failed to pass it once & the version Eric Cantor has put forward would put limits on the protections the Senate bill provides to Native Americans & other groups. ...

... Update: Jake Sherman of Politico: "House Republicans seem to be resigned that their version of the Violence Against Women Act is a loser with their own members and are likely to pass the Senate bill this week without changes. The GOP leadership has set up a floor process that would allow the chamber to vote on the Senate bill if they cannot pass their own version of the domestic violence legislation.... The main lingering issues for the House's bill was how it handled violence in tribal areas. The White House on Tuesday said it 'cannot support the House substitute' to the Senate bill."

James Risen of the New York Times: "Virginia Messick is the first victim of a sexual assault scandal at Lackland Air Force Base to discuss what she has endured.... Ms. Messick, now 21, is one of 62 trainees identified as victims of assault or other improper conduct by 32 training instructors between 2009 and 2012 at Lackland, a sprawling base outside San Antonio that serves as the Air Force's basic training center for enlisted personnel. So far, seven Air Force instructors have been court-martialed, including Staff Sgt. Luis Walker, now serving a 20-year sentence for crimes involving 10 women, including Ms. Messick. Eight more court-martial cases are pending. Fifteen other instructors are under investigation, and two senior officers have been relieved of command.... The reforms undertaken by the Air Force do not alter a fundamental fact of military life: commanders have final say over whether criminal charges are brought in military courts, and victims are expected to report crimes to those who oversee their careers."

Obama 2.0. Ben Protess of the New York Times: "Lawmakers are scrutinizing Mary Jo White ahead of her Senate confirmation hearing [re: her nomination to head the S.E.C.], raising questions about the former prosecutor’s lack of regulatory experience and the challenge of policing Wall Street firms she recently defended in private practice.... Ms. White ... offered a previously undisclosed concession, vowing 'as far as can be foreseen,' never to return to Debevoise & Plimpton, where she had built a lucrative legal practice.... Ms. White had already agreed to recuse herself for one year from most matters that involve former clients.... [Some] Democrats have lingering reservations.... Her husband, John W. White, is co-chairman of the corporate governance practice at Cravath, Swaine & Moore, where he represents many of the companies that the S.E.C. regulates. They also question whether Ms. White's recusals, even if well-intentioned, could cripple her ability to run the agency."

Kate Zernike of the New York Times: "Gov. Chris Christie, one of the most strident Republican critics of President Obama’s health care overhaul, announced on Tuesday that he would accept federal money to expand the Medicaid program in New Jersey. The expansion, which the governor described in his annual budget address to the Legislature, would provide health insurance to 104,000 of the poorest 1.3 million residents currently living without it, though some groups say the number could be higher. Mr. Christie emphasized that it was a financial decision, not a philosophical shift; if New Jersey did not take the money, he said, the federal government would give it to other states." ...

... Shushannah Walshe of ABC News: "There are almost 40 featured speakers at next month’s Conservative Political Action Conference, but one of the most popular Republican governors in the country has yet to receive an invite. New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie is 'not being invited' to CPAC...." CW: Walshe describes Marco Rubio as "former Florida Sen[ator]." If only.

Binyamin Appelbaum: "The Federal Reserve chairman, Ben S. Bernanke, played down concerns about the Fed's economic stimulus campaign on Tuesday, describing it as necessary and effective and making clear it was likely to continue for some time. In testimony before the Senate Banking Committee, Mr. Bernanke was relatively upbeat about the broader economy, which he said was growing again after pausing in the fourth quarter. But he said unemployment remained unacceptably high." ...

... Mark Gongloff of the Huffington Post: "Newly minted Sen. Elizabeth Warren on Tuesday showed why big banks are not her biggest fans, grilling Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke about the risks and fairness of having banks that are 'too big to fail.' Warren (D-Mass.) questioned Bernanke during his latest semiannual appearance before the Senate Banking Committee...." Thanks to contributor Julie L. for the link. ...

... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "... Ben Bernanke was up on Capitol Hill this morning giving his fellow Republicans a much-needed lesson in austerity economics. Departing from his statutory duty of reporting to the Senate Banking Committee on the Fed's monetary policy, Bernanke devoted much of his testimony to fiscal policy, warning his congressional class that letting the sequester go ahead would endanger the economic recovery and do little or nothing to reduce the country's debt burden.... He also called on European countries to ease up on their austerity policies, saying that they could adopt a 'more judicious balance' of short-term and long-term fiscal consolidation.... Today, once again, the mild-mannered professor demonstrated that he can take the heat."

Another Republican Tries to Save the Nation from Republicans. Sheila Bair, the former head of the FDIC, in a New York Times op-ed: "I am a capitalist and a lifelong Republican. I believe that, in a meritocracy, some level of income inequality is both inevitable and desirable.... But I fear that government actions, not merit, have fueled these extremes in income distribution through taxpayer bailouts, central-bank-engineered financial asset bubbles and unjustified tax breaks that favor the rich....Skewing income toward the upper, upper class hurts our economy because the rich tend to sit on their money -- unlike lower- and middle-income people, who spend a large share of their paychecks, and hence stimulate economic activity."

Maureen Dowd writes a critique of Marissa Mayer, the umpteenth CEO of Yahoo! CW: I'm in agreement with most, if not all, of what Dowd says about Mayer's actions, but I always bear in mind that Dowd is especially hard on ultra-successful women.

** CW: Sorry I forgot to link the obituary of former U.S. Surgeon General C. Everett Coop, who died Monday. Thanks to Kate M. for reminding us. Coop's New York Times obituary is here: "Dr. Koop issued emphatic warnings about the dangers of smoking, he almost single-handedly pushed the government into taking a more aggressive stand against AIDS, and despite his moral opposition to abortion, he refused to use his office as a pulpit from which to preach against it.... In an interview for this obituary in 1996, he said he had declined to speak out on abortion because he thought his job was to deal with factual health issues like the hazards of smoking, not to express opinions on moral issues." ...

... CW: I had no idea that the Times interviewed prominent people for their obituaries. The initial ask gives new meaning to the term "cold call."

Congressional Race

Rick Pearson & Bill Ruthhart of the Chicago Tribune: "Former state Rep. Robin Kelly easily won the special Democratic primary Tuesday night in the race to replace the disgraced Jesse Jackson Jr. in Congress, helped by millions of dollars in pro-gun control ads from New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg's political fund.... Bloomberg's Independence USA PAC was the largest campaign interest in the race and dominated the Chicago broadcast TV airwaves compared to a marginal buy by one minor candidate."

Right Wing World

If Ted Cruz is so smart, why can't he understand the basics of critical legal studies? Zach Beauchamp of Think Progress: "... not only did Cruz get it wrong [when he claimed that roughly a dozen professors at Harvard Law 'would say they were Marxists who believed in the Communists overthrowing the United States government'], but in a certain sense he got it backwards."

No-Tax Purity Test. Maggie Haberman of Politico: "The Club for Growth, the anti-tax group that has spent heavily in Republican primaries in the past few cycles, is launching a new website that names nine GOP Congress members in safe seats and urges people to help find challengers to them.... [The site] names people in districts where Mitt Romney notched more than 60 percent in the 2012 presidential race, but got a lifetime rating of below 70 percent from the Club."


Benedict Blames Dozing Jesus for Troubles. Rachel Donadio & Alan Cowell of the New York Times: "Pope Benedict XVI held his final general audience in St. Peter's Square on Wednesday, telling tens of thousands of believers in an unusually personal public farewell that his nearly eight years in office had known 'moments of joy and light but also moments that were not easy' when it seemed 'the Lord was sleeping.'"

Secrets of the Dead

Bork's Quest. Mark Sherman of TPM: "Robert Bork says President Richard Nixon promised him the next Supreme Court vacancy after Bork complied with Nixon's order to fire Watergate special prosecutor Archibald Cox in 1973. Bork's recollection of his role in the Saturday Night Massacre that culminated in Cox's firing is at the center of his slim memoir, 'Saving Justice,' that is being published posthumously by Encounter Books. Bork died in December at age 85." Via Charles Pierce: ... frankly, the fact that a dead crazy person is giving up a dead criminal 40 years too late, and from from the Beyond, does not impress me as an act of contrition, either."

Poor Rockefeller. Paul Glastris of the Washington Monthly: "In 1974, after Richard Nixon resigned and Gerald Ford became president, Ford brought Nelson Rockerfeller into the Oval Office and offered to nominate him to be vice president. When Ford and everyone else was leaving the room, [confirmation prep expert Tom] Korologos ... invited the governor to his office to start the grueling process of going through Rockefeller's past. One of the first questions Rockefeller asked was whether his financial disclosure forms might be made public. This is Washington, Korologos told him, you can bet someone will leak them. The hearings ultimately revealed, among other things, that Rockefeller had failed to pay $1 million in taxes and financed a negative biography of a political rival. But that day, Rockefeller confessed to Korologos his biggest concern: that the disclosure would show that Rockefeller was worth 'only' $600 million, far less than everyone assumed, and he would lose stature in the eyes of his billionaire buddies."

News Ledes

New York Times: "The United States is significantly stepping up its support for the Syrian opposition, senior administration officials said on Wednesday, helping to train rebels at a base in the region and for the first time offering armed groups nonlethal assistance and equipment that could help their military campaign."

New York Times: "Van Cliburn, the American pianist whose first-place award at the 1958 Tchaikovsky International Competition in Moscow made him an overnight sensation and propelled him to a phenomenally successful and lucrative career, though a short-lived one, died Wednesday morning in Fort Worth. He was 78."

Reuters: "A powerful winter storm that buried the U.S. Plains moved on Tuesday into the southern Great Lakes region, where it snarled the evening commute in Chicago and Milwaukee, created near-whiteout conditions and forced hundreds of flight cancellations."

AP: "A center-left group of parties appears to have the best shot at forming a coalition government in Italy after an inconclusive national election, but the challenge is steep and comes amid public anger over austerity measures. If Italian parties fail to form a governing coalition, new elections would be required, causing more uncertainty and a leadership vacuum, and that possibility rattled financial markets across Europe on Tuesday." Guardian story here.

AP: "New U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry has held his first official meeting with France's leadership amid increasing efforts by both countries to bolster Syria's opposition. Kerry met Wednesday with French President Francois Hollande in Paris, chatting in French on the front steps of the Elysee Palace." CW: I guess the headline in Right Wing World would be "Obama's Envoy and Socialist Leader Speak the Same Language -- And It's French!"

Reuters: "Iran gave an upbeat assessment of two days of nuclear talks with world powers that ended on Wednesday, but Western officials said Tehran must start taking concrete steps to ease mounting concerns about its atomic activity."

Reuters: U.S. Lieutenant-General Christopher Bogdan, "the Pentagon program chief for the F-35 warplane, slammed its commercial partners Lockheed Martin and Pratt & Whitney on Wednesday, accusing them of trying to 'squeeze every nickel' out of the U.S. government and failing to see the long-term benefits of the project."

Guardian: "The US government is planning to call an American, possibly one of the 22 Navy Seals involved in the Abbottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden, to give evidence at the trial of Bradley Manning about how he discovered digital material later revealed to contain WikiLeaks disclosures, a military court heard on Tuesday."

AP: "Two police detectives [in Santa Cruz County, California,] were shot and killed while investigating a sexual assault complaint, and a suspect was also fatally shot after a brief chase, authorities said."

Reuters: "A 19-year-old student died following a shooting on Tuesday at a residence hall of a South Carolina university near the resort area of Myrtle Beach, and authorities were searching for a gunman, university officials said."

Monday
Feb252013

The Commentariat -- Feb. 26, 2013

Nedra Pickler of the AP: "President Barack Obama is arguing that looming government-wide spending cuts could idle military resources like naval aircraft carriers, while Republicans are criticizing the president for taking his arguments outside Washington instead of staying to work out a plan before Friday's deadline. The president planned to appear Tuesday at Virginia's largest industrial employer, Newport News Shipbuilding, which would be affected by cuts to naval spending. Obama warned Monday that if the so-called sequester goes into effect later this week, the company's 'workers will sit idle when they should be repairing ships, and a carrier sits idle when it should be deploying to the Persian Gulf.'" ...

... "These cuts do not have to happen." President Obama spoke to the National Governors Association yesterday, where he outlined the impacts of the sequester on the states:

... Raúl M. Grijalva (D-AZ) and Keith Ellison (D-MN) of the Congressional Progressive Caucus "released the following statement [Monday] ahead of this Friday's sequester budget cuts:"

If Congress cannot come up with a replacement to the sequester before the end of the week, we should eliminate the sequester entirely. One million working Americans should not be forced to pay the price for Republican stubbornness. If this goes into effect, it will be one of the most irresponsible legislative failures in the history of the Republic.... Republicans held the world economy hostage in 2011. They created this crisis, and Congress should fix it for the sake of the country before people start getting fired."

Pew Research has mapped the likely effects of the sequester on various states. Go to the original map for more; it's interactive. The lighter the color, the higher the impact:

As contributor Dave S. points out, a lot of red states will be among those hit the hardest:

... Zachary Goldfarb of the Washington Post: "Since the day they were swept to power more than two years ago, the tea party's legions in Washington have made dramatic federal spending cuts the centerpiece of an economic message that has dominated the national debate. Now they're about to get what they want.... Although Democratic and Republican leaders are pointing fingers, the tea party and its allies are happily accepting credit for the cuts." CW: we'll see if they're still crowing come election eve. ...

... Steve Benen: "... one might expect [the Republicans'] message to be amazing. After all, once a political party gives up on governing and focuses solely on messaging, it's stands to reason they'll be pretty good at it. And yet, Republicans' sequestration message 'is all over the place.' GOP leaders believe the sequester will be awful but they want to let it happen. The policy was integral to the Republican fiscal plan and it's entirely the White House's idea. When Republicans say the cuts will hurt, that's fine; when Democrats say the cuts will hurt, it's evidence of scare tactics. And now Republicans are simultaneously convinced the cuts will hurt and help the economy." ...

This is not time for a road-show president. This is time to look for someone who will lead and work with us, because we're willing to work with them to solve America's problems. -- Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), House Majority Whip

So 'work with them' (sic.)* means punting responsibility for writing a sequester-averting bill to the Senate; it means refusing to consider any revenue increases; & it means taking off for a full week just before the sequester was to take effect, with no deal in the offing. -- Constant Weader ...

... * How can we expect the House leadership to reach an agreement with Democrats on a sequester fix when they can't even manage noun-verb agreement? Dan Amira's short post is titled, "John Boehner Loses the Grammarian Vote":

Boehner told Republicans in a closed-meeting Tuesday that the House doesn't need to pass a third sequester replacement bill before the 'Senate gets off their ass and passes it once.' ...

... A Crack in GOP Resolve? Sam Stein of the Huff Post notes that Sen. Lindsey Graham said on CNN last night, "I'm willing to raise $600 billion in new revenue, if my Democratic friends would be willing to reform entitlements...." But Stein also is aware of Graham's history: "Graham is notoriously flirty when it comes to bipartisan deal-making, often floating the possibility of some lofty bargain that, in the end, is too hard to achieve. This one seems to fit into that category." ...

... Brian Beutler of TPM: Democrats have a number of reasons to be confident that they'll win the PR contest, one of which is the result of the 1995 government shutdown. Beutler interviewed Paul Begala, a Clinton operative, who said, in part,

Before the government shutdown it was very much an open question in most people[s minds which party would win. Republicans were very confident at the time that the government would shut down and people's lives wouldn't change. They were wrong.... We all saw that theory proved in '95 and '96 and it's going to happen again.... Bob Dole said enough is enough. He stopped it. I may be selling Mitch McConnell short, but he's no Bob Dole. He's ... more worried about his political hide.

Wherein Eric Cantor Thinks Up Sequester Rationales

The National Science Foundation spent $1.2 million paying seniors to play World of Warcraft to study the impact it had on their brain. -- House Majority Leader Eric Cantor, in a February 19 release "identifying" wasteful spending

Before applying for the federal money, the researchers conducted a small, pilot study in which seniors played WoW ... and were tested to see if it improved their cognitive abilities. This study was funded with a $5,000 grant from N.C. State. No U.S. money was involved. The federal study involves hours of testing each participant and efforts to identify the aspects of computer games that might help seniors better deal with life offline. -- PolitiFact

Digby, on the long game: "on the fundamental battle over the role of government, [Republicans] have been winning.... After all, Obamacare, their most hated new government initiative was a GOP plan not even two decades ago. They aren't all stupid, especially those who are working to restore our society to a pre-New Deal state. It would be really helpful if Democrats ... started recognizing how much they have been losing on policy even as they've been winning elections. The country is losing either way."

** Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times: "Dozens of prominent Republicans -- including top advisers to former President George W. Bush, four former governors and two members of Congress -- have signed a legal brief arguing that gay people have a constitutional right to marry, a position that amounts to a direct challenge to Speaker John A. Boehner and reflects the civil war in the party since the November election. The document will be submitted this week to the Supreme Court in support of a suit seeking to strike down Proposition 8, a California ballot initiative barring same-sex marriage, and all similar bans. The court will hear back-to-back arguments next month in that case and another pivotal gay rights case that challenges the 1996 federal Defense of Marriage Act."

** Lyle Denniston, writing for the National Constitution Center: "No matter how eagerly some policymakers want to put some legal restraints on the Obama administration’s policy of targeted killing by drones in waging war on terrorism, it is a near-certainty that the idea of handing to a civilian court the power to decide who could be killed, and when, would not withstand constitutional scrutiny."

Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "Supreme Court Justice Sonia Sotomayor accused a Texas federal prosecutor Monday of tapping into a 'deep and sorry vein of racial prejudice' in his questioning of a black man facing a drug charge. The justices did not accept Bongani Charles Calhoun's request that the court review his conviction, but Sotomayor appended a scathing statement to make sure that the court's denial would not be seen as a signal of 'tolerance of a federal prosecutor's racially charged remark.' ... [The prosecutor] had asked Calhoun: 'You've got African Americans, you've got Hispanics, you've got a bag full of money. Does that tell you -- a light bulb doesn't go off in your head and say, "This is a drug deal?'" ... Justice Stephen G. Breyer joined Sotomayor's statement." Sotomayor's statement is here, & it's worth reading, especially because it at least partially explains why she agreed to deny cert.

Sarah Kliff of the Washington Post addresses an issue that contributor Barbarossa raised the other day -- America's Worst Governor Rick Scott's persuading HHS to "allow the state to move nearly all Medicaid enrollees into privately managed plans." Other Republican-led states are making similar moves. As Kliff writes, "If the Obama administration agrees, the battles over the health-care law could have an unexpected resolution: A larger, but more conservative, Medicaid program."

Frank Bruni writes quite a good column on priestly celibacy. ...

Meddling Old Fool in Fancy Brown Loafers. Pontifex emeritus. Nicole Winfield of the AP: "Pope Benedict XVI will be known as 'emeritus pope' in his retirement and will continue to wear a white cassock.... Benedict's decision to call himself emeritus pope and to keep wearing white is sure to fan concern voiced privately by some cardinals about the awkward reality of having two popes, both living within the Vatican walls. Adding to the concern is that Benedict's trusted secretary, Monsignor Georg Gaenswein, will be serving both pontiffs -- living with Benedict at the monastery inside the Vatican and keeping his day job as prefect of the new pope's household.... Benedict has taken a liking to a pair of hand-crafted brown loafers made for him by artisans in Leon, Mexico, and given to him during his 2012 visit. He will wear those in retirement...."

Martha Mendoza of the AP: "The former archbishop of San Francisco said Monday that Los Angeles Cardinal Roger Mahony has a rightful place among Vatican officials who will choose the next pope, even though Mahony has been battered in recent days by disclosures about his role in covering up clergy sex abuse. The comments by Cardinal William Levada, a high-ranking Vatican official until recently, came in the wake of a grass-roots campaign to shame Mahony into refraining from participating because of his role protecting sexually abusive priests. Mahony left for Rome over the weekend...." Levada's was the Vatican's CIO -- Chief Inquisition Officer (seriously). "While serving previously as an archbishop in California and Oregon, he kept some accused molesters in the church and failed to share some allegations with police or parishioners." Meanwhile Mahony continues his self-pity party, tweeting, "Wow, Jesus is demanding." CW: these people are reprehensible for more than one reason.

News Ledes

AP: "The second major snowstorm in a week battered the nation's midsection Tuesday, dropping a half-foot or more of snow across Missouri and Kansas and cutting power to thousands. At least three deaths were blamed on the blizzard, and gusting winds blew drifts more than 2 feet high and created treacherous driving conditions for those who dared the morning commute."

New York Times: "Saudi Arabia has financed a large purchase of infantry weapons from Croatia and quietly funneled them to antigovernment fighters in Syria in a drive to break the bloody stalemate that has allowed President Bashar al-Assad to cling to power, according to American and Western officials familiar with the purchases."

AP: "A hot air balloon flying over Egypt's ancient city of Luxor caught fire and crashed into a sugar cane field on Tuesday, killing at least 19 foreign tourists in one of the world's deadliest ballooning accidents...."

AND Dennis Rodman goes to North Korea.