The Commentariat -- Oct. 13, 2013

Manu Raju & Burgess Everett of Politico: "After Senate Democratic leaders rejected a proposal Saturday by Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) to end the budget impasse, the burden to find a solution now falls squarely on Majority Leader Harry Reid and Minority Leader Mitch McConnell -- two shrewd tacticians who have a long, complicated and contentious personal and political history with each other. Republican senators ... reacted to the leadership discussions positively, believing that the two crafty dealmakers could concoct a proposal to reopen the government and avert the nation's first-ever default as soon as next week.... When asked if he is confident he could reach a deal with McConnell, Reid told Politico: 'No.'" ...

... Oh dear. Senate Republicans are "disrespecting" their House colleagues & that peeves Paulie. Jonathan Strong of National Review: "House Budget Committee chairman Paul Ryan lashed out at Senate Republicans for interfering with the House GOP's talks with the White House to reopen the government and lift the debt ceiling, suggesting his colleagues on the other side of the Capitol were betraying Speaker John Boehner. 'They're trying to cut the House out, and trying to jam us with the Senate. We're not going to roll over and take that,' Ryan told reporters. When asked if he felt 'double crossed,' Ryan said 'you look at the facts and draw your own conclusions.'" CW: Don't Senate Republicans remember who was the 2012 Mr. Vice President First Runner-Up? They should show more respect. Collins got her comeuppance, Paul; Senate Democrats rejected her plan. And yours is a non-starter. ...

... Rosalind Helderman & Jackie Kucinich of the Washington Post: Members of Congress carp at each other. A somewhat humorous read. ...

... Josh Barro of Business Insider: "Ted Cruz is living on another planet.... [He] spoke to the Values Voters Summit, and his speech was really weird. It's like he's living on another planet. On Planet Cruz, there is a massive outpouring of public support for a government shutdown over Obamacare and it's scaring the hell out of Democrats.... When constituencies become aggrieved minorities, seeing themselves as under attack by the establishment, they are vulnerable to hucksters like Cruz, because they disregard outside warnings and evidence that they are being had." ...

... Some People Love Ted. Alexandra Jaffe of the Hill: "Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) won the Values Voter Summit straw poll on Saturday, cementing his title as the de facto leader of the conservative movement."

Paul Krugman: "What's really going on with plutocrats right now ... is that they’re basically willing to accept lousy economic policies from right-wing politicians as long as they get a bigger share of the shrinking pie. This may sound very cynical -- but then, if you aren't cynical at this point, you aren't paying attention. And I suspect that the GOP would have to get a lot crazier before big business bails." Thanks to William P. Coleman for the link. Also, his related parable, contributed to yesterday's thread, is a good one.

** Robert Pear, et al., of the New York Times: "For the past 12 days, a system costing more than $400 million and billed as a one-stop click-and-go hub for citizens seeking health insurance has thwarted the efforts of millions to simply log in. The growing national outcry has deeply embarrassed the White House, which has refused to say how many people have enrolled through the federal exchange.... Interviews with two dozen contractors, current and former government officials, insurance executives and consumer advocates, as well as an examination of confidential administration documents, point to a series of missteps -- financial, technical and managerial -- that led to the troubles. Politics made things worse." CW: When & if this mess ever gets worked out, Kathleen Sebelius should resign; if she doesn't, Obama should suggest it to her.

Fog of War. Maureen Dowd reminisces with Dick Cheney & the gang. They don't remember much.

Gubernatorial Race

Ken Cuccinelli goes brutal:

... James Hohmann of Politico: "'This ad is despicable and the latest sign that Ken Cuccinelli is resorting to desperate and false attacks to make up for the fact that he is one of the most disliked statewide candidates in memory,' said McAuliffe spokesman Josh Schwerin. 'Terry was one of hundreds of passive investors several years ago and had no idea about the horrible allegations against the defendant.'" ...

... Amelia Thompson-Deveaux of the American Prospect examines the effect of third-party candidate Robert Sarvis in the Virginia gubernatorial race. Sarvis is running as a "pure libertarian." Thanks to James S. for the link.

Senatorial Races 2014

Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: Republicans' hopes of regaining the Senate dimmed with the shutdown.

The Commentariat -- Oct. 12, 2013

The President's Weekly Address:

Here's the Washington Post's liveblog of the shutdown/debt ceiling crisis. ...

CW: The WashPo & NYTimes stories seem to conflict about that Obama-Boehner phone call. ...

... Rosalind Helderman, et al., of the Washington Post: "House Republicans were told by Speaker John Boehner Saturday morning that negotiations between the House GOP and President Obama have ended, with Obama’s rejection Friday of the House’s latest offer. At a closed door meeting in the basement of the Capitol, Boehner urged members to hold firm, several said, even as Senate Republicans work to negotiate their own proposal to end the impasse." ...

... Ashley Parker & Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: " The House and the Senate met on Saturday to continue parallel — and at times competing — negotiations to reopen the government and raise the debt ceiling less than a week before the Treasury’s borrowing authority runs out on Thursday. The mood on Capitol Hill and in the White House was one of tempered optimism, even though neither the House Republicans nor the Obama administration has yet to produce any tangible areas of agreement. A phone call from President Obama to Speaker John A. Boehner on Friday afternoon yielded little more than an exchange of pleasantries." ...

Jeremy Peters & Ashley Parker: "Republican senators emerged from a meeting at the White House on Friday afternoon expressing confidence that a deal could be reached in a matter of days that would end the government shutdown and extend the nation’s borrowing authority, but cautioning that details of an agreement, including the length of an extension, still needed to be worked out." ...

... Lori Montgomery & Paul Kane of the Washington Post: "Congressional Republicans rushed late Friday to develop a new plan for reopening the government and avoiding a first-ever default in hopes of crafting a strategy that can win the support of the White House before financial markets open Monday.... Details were still fluid late Friday, but the latest 23-page draft of the emerging measure would immediately end the shutdown and fund federal agencies for six months at current spending levels. It would maintain deep automatic cuts known as the sequester, but give agency officials flexibility to decide where the cuts should fall. In addition, the proposal would also raise the debt limit through Jan. 31, 2014." ...

... Jonathan Salant of Bloomberg News: Sen. Ted Corker (R-Tenn.) & Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.) tell Al Hunt of Bloomberg TV that the end of both the government shutdown & the debt default threat is in site & votes should come mid-week. Ted & Pete are thrilled that the President is going to help them "chip away at entitlements." CW: As a certified "entitlement moocher" whose future COLA is almost certain to get chipped, I couldn't be more thrilled. Hmm. Wonder if Congress will chain Congressional pensions to the lower COLAs a/k/a "chained CPI."  ...

... Steve Benen: "House Republican lawmakers are saying they want to make catastrophic threats a normal part of contemporary politics, and justify this extremism by saying voters haven't left them any choice." They're afraid to vote for a clean debt ceiling because "it will establish a precedent" & they might never again be able to hold the nation hostage. "But -- and I'm just spitballing here -- Republicans could try ... working on a policy agenda and then reaching out to Democrats in the hopes of reaching compromises. This would, I'm afraid, require both sides to make concessions..., but if GOP lawmakers were willing to try this, I have some good news for them: There's plenty of precedent for this approach working quite well." ...

... Digby: " The only thing that will stop them from doing this again is for them to lose many seats in the next election. I'm not sure why people are fooling themselves into believing otherwise."

A Day in the Life of a Megalomaniac

MORNING. Jed Lewison of Daily Kos: "The shutdown according to House Speaker Ted Cruz" -- is going great! ... 

BUT. If I’m never seen again, please send a search-and-rescue team. -- Ted Cruz, worrying aloud to a roomful of "Values Voters"/conspircy theorists about his upcoming afternoon appointment at the White House

AFTERNOON. Burgess Everett of Politico: Cruz tells off the President:

I told the president ... that we need to work together and fund the government and at the same time provide substantial relief to the millions of people who are hurting because of Obamacare, who are losing their jobs, being forced into part-time work and losing their health insurance. If the outcome doesn’t impact people who are struggling, who are hurting because of Obamacare, then I don’t think it would be a good outcome. -- Tailgunner Ted

No. -- Jay Carney, when asked to give a breakdown of the exchange between Cruz & Obama

ALL DAY. Ted's college roommate Craig Mazin tweets about Ted, reveals it's more than Ted's ideas that stink. Funny stuff.

No one has done more to strengthen Obamacare than Ted Cruz. -- Rep. Peter King (R-N.Y.)

... for most party actors, including many sympathetic to Tea Partyism, [Ted Cruz is] going to be the guy who ran up the wrong hill.... He's probably off the list of serious contenders [for the GOP presidential nomination]. He still has the basics of a viable candidate (conventional credentials, if only just barely, and he's within the mainstream of his party on public policy positions). But I think it's extremely likely that he's in the process of being winnowed out. -- Political Scientist Jonathan Bernstein

... "The Zombie-Eyes Granny Starver" Emerges. Charles Pierce: "Paul Ryan is staking his claim as a reasonable guy on the very narrow criterion of Not Being Louie Gohmert. But there isn't an ounce of daylight between their essential positions."

... Tom Kludt of TPM: "Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) channeled his inner-maverick Friday during an appearance on Fox News Channel, repeatedly reminding the conservative network that the government shutdown was brought about by the quixotic effort to halt the Affordable Care Act. When anchor Martha MacCallum asked him about the White House's handling of the suspension of death benefits to military families, McCain said that while the administration deserves blame it was a GOP-induced shutdown that caused the problem in the first place."

Paul Krugman: "What [a new Democracy Corps] report makes clear is that the current Republican obsession with attacking programs that benefit Americans in need, ranging from food stamps to Obamacare, isn’t about some philosophical commitment to small government, still less worries about incentive effects and implicit marginal tax rates. It’s about anxiety over a changing America — the multiracial, multicultural society we’re becoming — and anger that Democrats are taking Their Money and giving it to Those People. In other words, it’s still race after all these years." ...

... Adam Gopnik of the New Yorker remarks on how much the Tea Party is like the John Birch Society. "The common core belief, then and now, is actually descended from “Huck Finn” ’s unforgettable Pappy and his views on the 'guv’mint': the federal government exists to take money from hard-working white people and give it to lazy black people, and the President is helping to make this happen." CW: BTW, I agree with Gopnik's assessment of the roots & character of white racism. I would add that much of today's racial resentment is a direct result of the economic trends in this country -- people see they're not getting ahead & they look for someone to scapegoat. In this regard, the GOP agenda is brilliant: surreptitiously make life harder or your base, & they will be even angrier & even more devoted to their crazy beliefs & conspiracy theories -- who was it who said "clinging to their guns & religion"? I thought then & I think now that guy was right. ...

... John Judis of the New Republic: "We could be witnessing the death throes of the Republican party.... Under pressure from grassroots radicals and the new outsider groups, the old Republican coalition is beginning to shatter. The single-issue and evangelical groups have been superseded by right-wing populist groups, which are generally identified with the Tea Party, although there is no single Tea Party organization. These groups can’t easily be co-opted by the party’s Washington leadership. And the business groups in Washington, who funded the party over the last two decades, have grown disillusioned with a party that appears to be increasingly held hostage by its radical base and by outsider groups." ...

... Ed Kilgore: "I dunno; this is a song we’ve heard before. Time and again yesterday’s conservative radicals have become today’s and tomorrow’s 'Republican Establishment;' that’s a big part of why the GOP has move so steadily to the Right over the years." ...

... Steve M. of NMMNB: "Trust me, these folks are going to work this out. First of all, crazy-base disappointment with the GOP is not exactly new. Crazy-base voters thought John McCain was a pathetic RINO. Did they bolt for a third party? No. They felt the same way in 2012 about Mitt Romney. Did they bolt then? No. They never bolt, because they hate liberals, Democrats, and the Democratic voter base as they perceive it (i.e., non-white moochers) far more than they hate one another."

Brendan Sasso of the Hill: "The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court has granted the National Security Agency (NSA) permission to continue its collection of records on all U.S. phone calls. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence announced the court's approval in a statement late Friday. The court authorizes the program for only limited time periods and requires that the government submit new requests every several months for re-authorization." ...

... Eric Schmitt of the New York Times: "The C.I.A. said Friday that it did not suspect Edward J. Snowden of gaining access to computer files without authorization when he was working as a technician for the agency in Geneva in 2009, and did not send him home as a result."

Senate Race

The New Jersey special election for the U.S. Senate is this coming Wednesday, & Gail Collins has a few thoughts about GOP candidate Steve Lonegan, whose view of the social safety net (& philosophy of life) could be summed up in this classic: “I’d hate to see you get cancer, but that’s your problem, not mine.” Also, she ruminated on Chris Christie, who set the election on a Wednesday in mid-October so he would get all the headlines in the November election: "People, do you think Governor Christie used to be one of those kids who refused to share? When other children came over, do you think he put all his toys in one big pile and sat on it? I once had a friend like that, but I don’t think she grew up to be in charge of a state." ...

It was just weird. I mean, to me, you know, hey, if he said, 'Hey, you got really hot breasts man, I'd love to suck on them.' Then like, yeah, cool. But like, he didn't say that. It was like kind of like, I don't know, it was like what a gay guy would say to a stripper. It's the way he was talking to her. It's just like like there was no sexual interest at all. I don't know. To me, if I was single and you know like some stripper was tweeting me, I might take advantage of the perks of the office, you know? ... This is strange. It's just weird. ... It's like, 'I don't know who she is. I don't know anything about her.' Get the fuck out of here dude. You can't follow her Twitter page and not know she's got those great breasts. How do you fucking not know? -- Rick Shaftan, top aide to Steve Lonegan, speaking on the record to a TPM reporter about Democratic rival Cory Booker's Twitter exchange with that vegan stripper Collins mentioned

And Democrats have been complaining about the quality of Booker's campaign? -- Constant Weader

... Shaftan Gets Shafted. David Giambusso of the Star-Ledger: "Hours [after TPM published the interview], Lonegan fired Shaftan, saying the comments 'are not reflective of my views or that of my campaign. His comments are distasteful and offensive, and his contract as a vendor for my campaign will be terminated immediately,' Lonegan said."

The Commentariat -- Oct. 11, 2013

** Eric Schmitt of the New York Times: "Just as Edward J. Snowden was preparing to leave Geneva and a job as a C.I.A. technician in 2009, his supervisor wrote a derogatory report in his personnel file, noting a distinct change in the young man’s behavior and work habits, as well as a troubling suspicion. The C.I.A. suspected that Mr. Snowden was trying to break into classified computer files to which he was not authorized to have access, and decided to send him home, according to two senior American officials. But the red flags went unheeded.... The supervisor's cautionary note and the C.I.A.'s suspicions apparently were not forwarded to the N.S.A. or its contractors...." CW: Just jaw-dropping.

CW: I have been waiting since the debt ceiling crisis of 2011 for a teabagging Constitooshunal scholar to say this out loud, because I had a sneaking suspicion it's what they believe. As Charles Pierce points out, yesterday Rep. Jeb Hensarling (RTP-Texas) went there: " Andrea Mitchell was interviewing Rep. Jeb (Jeb) Hensarling of Texas, and she felt compelled to point out to Congressman Jeb that lifting the debt ceiling meant only that we would be paying bills for bills and programs that Congress already paid for. Congressman Jeb replied that 'this House' didn't vote for the stimulus, and that 'this House' didn't vote for Obamacare." Got that? It's nullification writ large: one Congress does not have to pay for the costs of laws written by previous Congresses. I wish Nancy Pelosi had thought of that; the national debt would have taken a deep dive if she had just written off the Iraq War & Medicare Part D &, well, every debt incurred by previous Congresses. ...

... Thomas Beaumont of the AP: "... veteran Republicans across the country are accusing tea party lawmakers of staining the GOP with their refusal to bend in the budget impasse in Washington. The Republican establishment also is signaling a willingness to strike back at the tea party in next fall's elections. 'It's time for someone to act like a grown-up in this process,' former New Hampshire Gov. John Sununu argues, faulting Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and tea party Republicans in the House as much as President Barack Obama for taking an uncompromising stance. Former Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is just as pointed, saying this about the tea party-fueled refusal to support spending measures that include money for Obama's health care law: 'It never had a chance.'" ...

... Paul Kane, et al., of the Washington Post: "House and Senate Republicans offered competing plans Thursday to resolve Washington's debt-limit and government shutdown crises, as President Obama held the latest in a series of meetings aimed at persuading them to accept at least short-term solutions with no partisan strings attached. The White House described President Obama's conversation Thursday afternoon with House Republican leaders as a 'good meeting,' but said no deal was reached to reopen the government. 'After a discussion about potential paths forward, no specific determination was made,' the White House said in a statement to reporters. 'The President looks forward to making continued progress with members on both sides of the aisle.'" ...

... Jackie Calmes & Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "President Obama on Thursday rejected a proposal from politically besieged House Republican leaders to extend the nation's borrowing authority for six weeks because it would not also reopen the government. Yet both parties saw it as the first break in Republicans' brinkmanship and a step toward a fiscal truce." ...

     ... Update. If Republicans can be believed, the Times story is incorrect. Jonathan Strong of the National Review: "A group of key House Republicans came out of a meeting with President Obama, Vice President Biden and Treasury Secretary Jack Lew saying aides to both parties would begin negotiations this evening over a CR to end the government shutdown. 'The president didn't say yes, didn't say no. We're continuing to negotiate this evening,' House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan told reporters." Etc. Via Digby. ...

     ... Update 2. Oh. The Times has materially changed it story. Same link. ...

     ... Here's the AP version, by David Espo. If the Tea Party is in charge of Boehner, maybe Harry Reid is in charge of Obama. ...

... Ken Sweet of the AP: "The Dow Jones industrial average soared more than 300 points Thursday after Republican leaders and President Barack Obama finally seemed willing to end a 10-day budget standoff that has threatened to leave the U.S. unable to pay its bills. The news drove the Dow to its biggest point rise this year and ended a three-week funk in stocks. It also injected some calm into the frazzled market for short-term government debt." ...

... Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senate Republicans are unhappy with a House GOP plan to raise the debt ceiling for six weeks without funding the federal government. They are coalescing around their own proposal to pair a short-term debt-ceiling increase with a year-long stopgap to fund the government." ...

... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "The White House announced Thursday night that President Obama has signed a bill that ensures the Department of Defense can pay death gratuities and related survivor benefits to the families of military service members who die in the line of duty." ...

... James Warren of the New York Daily News: "It would be 'more expensive for Americans to buy a car, own a home, and open a small business' if the 'chaos' of a debt default comes next week, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew warned Congress Thursday. Lew's early-morning appearance before the Senate Finance Committee was the first head-to-head encounter between an administration official and dubious Republicans since the federal government shutdown began Oct. 1." ...

... Mark Murray of NBC News: "The Republican Party has been badly damaged in the ongoing government shutdown and debt limit standoff, with a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finding that a majority of Americans blame the GOP for the shutdown, and with the party's popularity declining to its lowest level. By a 22-point margin (53 percent to 31 percent), the public blames the Republican Party more for the shutdown than President Barack Obama -- a wider margin of blame for the GOP than the party received during the poll during the last shutdown in 1995-96." ...

... Nate Silver! weighs in on shutdown polling & related phenomena. Via Jonathan Bernstein. ...

... Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post: "What's happening today is quite unlike the 'Contract With America' movement of the 1990s. The tea party is a grass-roots movement of people deeply dissatisfied with the United States' social, cultural and economic evolution over several decades. It's crucial to understand that they blame both parties for this degeneration.... This explains why the Republican Party has seemed so unresponsive to its traditional power bases, such as big business." ...

... Paul Krugman dispels a few debt-denier myths. ...

... Humor Break. "John Boehner Is Borrowing a Plan from Homer Simpson." Jonathan Chait: "Here's the best rule for determining what John Boehner will do in any situation: If there is a way for him to delay a moment of confrontation or political risk, he will do it. That's why Boehner's current plan is to raise the debt ceiling for six weeks while keeping the government shut down. Business is freaked out and will be furious with him if he triggers a default. So he's raising the debt ceiling for long enough to get them off his back. And tea-partiers will be furious if he abandons their quest to defund Obamacare by shutting down the government. So he's leaving that part in place.... Basically, his plan is to hide under some coats and hope it all works out somehow:"

Jennifer Medina of the New York Times: "With enthusiastic backing from state officials and an estimated seven million uninsured, California is a crucial testing ground for the success of President Obama's health care law. It is building the country's largest state-run health insurance exchange and has already expanded Medicaid coverage for the poor. Officials hope that the efforts here will eventually attract more than two million people who are currently uninsured." ...

... Lizette Alvarez of the New York Times: "First the [Florida] State Legislature roundly rejected the [Affordable Care Act], refusing to create a state insurance exchange and punting it to the federal government to run the new insurance market. It also rejected $51 billion in federal funds that was available over 10 years to expand Medicaid coverage for the state's poor. As the day neared for consumers to enroll in insurance plans, state officials announced that so-called navigators -- a group assigned to help people sign up -- would be barred from state health offices.... But blame this week shifted to the federal government. Its Web site remains so error-prone that the overwhelming majority of Floridians who have tried to buy affordable health insurance have had little luck. Anecdotal evidence across Florida, which has 3.5 million uninsured residents, the second highest in the country, indicated that few Floridians managed to enroll." ...

... Janine Reid in a Washington Post op-ed: "ObamaCare saved my family from financial ruin.... If I could get John Boehner and Ted Cruz on a conference call, I would explain this to them. I would tell them that, while they were busy trying to derail the Affordable Care Act over the past two years, [my son] Mason has again learned to walk, talk, eat and shoot a three-point basket."

Gubernatorial Race

Elizabeth Titus of Politico: "A chaotic episode erupted in the Virginia gubernatorial race late Wednesday, as The Associated Press published and then retracted a story that said court documents alleged Democratic candidate Terry McAuliffe had lied to a federal official."

News Ledes

Reuters: " U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Afghanistan on Friday to advance negotiations with President Hamid Karzai on a bilateral security pact which have hit a wall over two issues that have become deal breakers for the Afghan government."

Washington Post: "The Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons, the Hague-based agency responsible for destroying Syria's chemical weapons, has won the Nobel Peace Prize, the Norwegian Nobel Committee said Friday in Oslo."

New York Times: "JPMorgan Chase, the nation's largest bank, reported a third-quarter net loss of $380 million on Friday as it continued to grapple with a raft of regulatory and legal woes. The added costs dragged down JPMorgan's results as the bank posted a net loss of 17 cents a share. JPMorgan's earnings were eroded, in large part, by a legal expense of $9.2 billion."

AP: " The administration of Iran's new President Hassan Rouhani has cancelled an anti-Israeli conference as part of his outreach to the West and efforts to map out a new diplomatic path for Iran. The annual event was set up by Rouhani's predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and showcased the former president's vitriolic anti-Israeli rhetoric and promoted his anti-Israeli sentiments."