The Commentariat -- Oct. 30, 2012
New York Times live update at 8:03 pm ET: while Gov. Chris Christie (R-NJ) was berating the mayor of Atlantic City, he took time out to "heap praise on President Barack Obama. Mr. Christie said Mr. Obama had called to make sure he had everything needed from the federal government and left a number to call him directly at the White House if any unmet needs arise. 'I appreciate that call from the president,' Mr. Christie said. 'It was very proactive. I appreciate that kind of leadership.'" CW: I guess Christie isn't totally into the Privatize FEMA Plan. ...
... Three Leaders, Three Styles. Michael Grynbaum of the New York Times: "Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg played the stern parent, chiding the kids not to surf and offering sensible suggestions like staying home to eat a sandwich. Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, tieless with a shirt button undone, was a confident but unhurried everyguy: the hunky local fire chief. And Gov. Chris Christie was his usual blunt self, deriding those who resisted evacuation orders as 'selfish and stupid.'"
Presidential Race
** Joshua Holland of AlterNet: "This post is addressed to disgruntled progressives who are urging like-minded people to vote 'strategically' by casting their vote for Obama if they live in a contested state, and voting for a third-party candidate if they live in a solidly blue or red state.... The reason this is a terrible idea in 2012 is simple: there is now a non-trivial chance that Mitt Romney could win the popular vote but lose the Electoral College ... [in which case Republicans would ] precipitate a crisis.... A concerted effort would be made to persuade members of the Electoral College to become 'faithless electors.' Efforts would be made to split the electoral vote proportionally in any states Obama wins that are controlled by Republicans. We'd see more 'Brooks Brothers riots' unfold. It'd be a huge mess, and I don't think the outcome would be certain.... Democrats can work to avoid this scenario by turning out more voters, regardless of where they live -- in Oregon or Alabama."
** Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "The storm could also provide a moment of sharp contrast between President Obama and Mitt Romney and how their different ideas of governing apply to the federal response to large-scale disasters. Obama has been aggressive about bolstering the federal government's capability to respond to disasters, while his Republican challenger believes that states should be the primary responders in such situations and has suggested that disaster response could be privatized." CW: I hope a lot of people read this, though those most affected over the next few days will have other things on their minds & no access to the Internets. O'Keefe, BTW, is a straight reporter. ...
... New York Times Editors: "Disaster coordination is one of the most vital functions of 'big government,' which is why Mitt Romney wants to eliminate it.... Republicans ... don't like the idea of free aid for poor people, or they think people should pay for their bad decisions, which this week includes living on the East Coast. Over the last two years, Congressional Republicans have forced a 43 percent reduction in the primary FEMA grants that pay for disaster preparedness." ...
... Desert Beacon: "Remember the Romney-Ryan budget proposal calls for 20% cuts across the board in non-defense discretionary spending. Their previously issued statements also call for transforming emergency funds into Block Grants for states. So, whatever disaster strikes the 'resources and assistance' would come from the state -- not federal resources. The state of Louisiana would have had to pick up the bill for Hurricane Katrina from its 'block grant.'" Via Karoli of Crooks & Liars. ...
... Kevin Drum makes an excellent point re: Romney's idea of defunding FEMA (see clip in yesterday's Commentariat): "Republican orthodoxy that demanded spending cuts in return for raising the debt ceiling [in the summer of 2011] had infested everything, even emergency spending. Sure, Joplin, [Missouri,] might be suffering [from a devastating tornado], but by God, America was out of money and there was nothing left for them. Romney, who was still in his severely conservative phase back then, went along because he didn't dare cross Eric Cantor. This is the real problem here. There's no telling if Romney really believed what he was saying or not, but as president he probably wouldn't dare cross Cantor either." ...
... AND Drum points to this piece Tim Murphy of Mother Jones wrote in August: "... under a Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan administration, FEMA's ability to respond quickly and effectively to natural disasters could be severely inhibited. In a 2012 report on Rep. Paul Ryan's 'Path to Prosperity' roadmap (which Romney has said is similar to his own), the nonpartisan Center on Budget and Policy Priorities noted that, due to the severe cuts to nonentitlement, nondefense spending, the costs for things like emergency management would have to be passed on to the states -- which, with just a few exceptions, are currently in an even tighter financial bind than Washington." ...
Ed Kilgore: "So now, predictably, the Romney campaign is backtracking on his primary campaign suggestion that emergency management needs to be taken over by the states (implying in turn that FEMA should be abolished). Oh no! Mitt wouldn't do that! We're witnessing a pattern.... [the Romney-Ryan budget calls for] some big cuts. But whenever Mitt is challenged on any particular budget item, we hear: Oh, no! Mitt wouldn't cut that! But every time something's taken off the table, the level of cuts needed for programs not taken off the table goes straight up. And greater specificity, of course, is always ruled out...."
... Alec MacGillis of The New Republic chalks up Romney's antipathy to FEMA as part of his new-found embrace of "federalism," which he used as an excuse to distance himself from the toxicity of ObamaCare -- health care is a function that should be left to the states. So RomneyCare good, ObamaCare bad. ...
... CW: BUT I think it's even more basic (and base) than that. Romney doesn't care about the 47 percent, & they mostly don't live in Massachusetts, where he pays taxes. Massachusetts is a "giver" state: it gives more to the federal government than it receives. If most functions were left to the states, even though Massachusetts is a high-tax state, Romney's taxes would be lower because Massachusetts would no longer be covering for Alabama, Mississippi, etc. If you think FEMA's response to Katrina was piss-poor, think how good it would have been if local authorities were in charge. One of the hold-ups in the response to New Orleans victims of Katrina, as I recall, was that the Democratic governor went practically catatonic & couldn't decide what to do. As for the mayor of New Orleans, he left town for the worst two days of the crisis. But that would be okay with Romney; he wants to wash his hands of "those people." ...
... FEMA Is Immoral. CW: something about Romney's rejection of FEMA neither I nor the pundits have mentioned is how virulently he opposed it. After he said it should be given to the states or privatized, moderator John King asked, "Including disaster relief, though?" Romney answered, "We cannot afford to do those things without jeopardizing the future for our kids. It is simply immoral ... to rack up larger and larger debts and pass them on to our kids." This is nonsense. Eighty-five percent of the national debt is owed to Americans. So if all of "our kids" have to pay, some of "our kids" also will profit. The money stays in the American economy. In fact, often the borrower & the lender are effectively the same person -- your taxes may rise to pay off a debt to your pension plan. The "taxpayer you" loses, but the "pensioner you" gains. ...
... CW Update. Joan McCarter of Daily Kos goes there. She concludes, rightly I think, that ultimately Mitt thinks disaster relief should be "privatized." Here's my Newsflash for Mitt: much of disaster relief is already privatized: it's called homeowners insurance, healthcare insurance or pay-it-yourself. Homeowners insurance for hurricanes & similar major disasters is fabulous in Florida: as Janice Lloyd of USA Today reports, "Along coastal areas from Florida to Maine, the owner pays a percentage of the replacement value of the property rather than a traditional deductible in the event of hurricane damage." In the last hurricane to hit hard here, we had some minor roof damage that was covered by our homeowners policy. The deductible? -- because it was hurricane-related, about $30,000. Needless to say, we paid for the repairs out-of-pocket.
... Aviva Shen of Think Progress: appearing on CNN Monday, GOP strategist Ron Bonjean endorsed Romney's plan to dismantle FEMA. Because, if, um, your power is on, you don't care about FEMA. CW: this is the GOP every-person-for-himself worldview in a nutshell: we are not a country; we are each individuals & we don't care about each other. Not unrelated to the I've Got Mine School of Political Philosophy.
Jim Rutenberg & Jeremy Peters of the New York Times: "The ad from Mitt Romney showed up on televisions here early Saturday morning without the usual public announcement that both campaigns typically use to herald their latest commercials: Chrysler, a bailout recipient, is going to begin producing Jeeps in China, an announcer says, leaving the misleading impression that the move would come at the expense of jobs here.... [Romney's] effort ... stretch or ignore the facts.... Mr. Romney incorrectly told a rally in Defiance, Ohio, late last week outright that Jeep was considering moving its production to China.... Jeep's corporate parent, Chrysler, had already released a scathing statement calling suggestions that Jeep was moving American jobs to China 'fantasies' and 'extravagant'...." CW: Chrysler also said Romney's assertion was "a leap that would be difficult even for professional circus acrobats." Here's the Obama campaign's response -- "Wrong then, dishonest now":
... AND here's Bill Clinton's response:
... James O'Toole of the Toledo Blade: "Pinch-hitting for President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden and former President Bill Clinton assailed Mitt Romney on Monday, charging that a new Republican ad being aired here is deceptive in suggesting that Chrysler planned to move its Jeep production to China. Mr. Clinton told a crowd at Youngstown State University that the claim was 'the biggest load of bull in the world,' pointing to a Chrysler Group LLC statement that said the firm was considering ramping up production in China, but not at the expense of its North American operations." ...
..."Flailing in Ohio, Romney Rolls out Jeep Ploy." Cleveland Plain Dealer Editors: "Mitt Romney is desperate to convince Ohio voters that he's the candidate most committed to the U.S. auto industry -- no matter how much confusion he must sow to do it.... It won't work. Ohio voters know who stepped up when the auto industry was at the abyss -- and it wasn't Romney." ...
... Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post: "The series of statements in the ad individually may be technically correct, but the overall message of the ad is clearly misleading -- especially since it appears to have been designed to piggyback off of Romney's gross misstatement that Chrysler was moving Ohio factory jobs to China. It is also especially strange that the ad touts Romney's endorsement by the Detroit News, when the editorial actually backs up Obama's criticism of Romney's response to the auto industry crisis."
The pro-Obama SuperPAC American Bridge Plays Romnopoly:
Sam Wang of Princeton U. follows up on Paul Krugman's blogpost (linked in yesterday's Commentariat) calling out the National Review for attacking Nate Silver. Since then, more wingers have piled on. "None of this storm of criticism would be happening if 'Ro-mentum' were real. In fact, Mitt Romney's fortunes peaked around October 4-9. Since then, the race has moved back toward Obama by about 2.5 points." ...
Nate Cohn of The New Republic on why Florida is still in play -- "Florida's growing black and non-Cuban Hispanic populations."
Congressional Races
Katharine Seelye of the New York Times: "Senator Scott P. Brown’s campaign announced Monday afternoon that he would not participate in his fourth and final debate with Elizabeth Warren, his Democratic challenger, on Tuesday night, citing Hurricane Sandy.... The Warren campaign subsequently issued a statement saying that Ms. Warren agreed that safety was paramount and that the debate should not be held. A poll in The Boston Globe on Monday showed Mr. Brown, above, in a dead heat with Ms. Warren, a positive turn of events for the Republican, who had been trailing in most recent polls."
David Rogers of Politico: "Former Republican Sen. Alan Simpson endorsed the uphill Senate campaign of Democrat Bob Kerrey in Nebraska Monday, describing his former colleague as a friend and someone willing to "place the national interest ahead of the howling special interests" in addressing the federal debt and entitlement reforms. Recent polls show Kerrey closing in on Republican Deb Fischer...."
Jamelle Bouie of American Prospect has an overview of the Senate races, where -- if today's polling numbers hold -- Democrats are likely to hold onto the majority. ...
... Jonathan Bernstein, who writes in the Washington Post & elsewhere, but who has a little side job as a poly sci professor, blames the Tea Party, and not just in cases where the Tea Party candidates who won primary slots, like Dick Moredick of Indiana. Bernstein suspects "what's happening here are strong Republican potential candidates driven away by tea party primary upsets. They can't trust that the nomination field will be cleared for them; they can't trust that the usual recipe -- raising plenty of money and securing the backing of party-aligned leaders and groups -- will be enough. And ambitious professional politicians, who also generally are the best candidates, aren't willing to take that sort of risk."
Other Stuff
Prof. Justin Levitt in a New York Times op-ed: "Local election officials must continue to safeguard the election process from mass challenges in the name of 'voter integrity.' These zealous sweeps are so error-ridden that they undermine the integrity they ostensibly seek.... Citizens walking around with long lists of ostensibly illegal voters are most likely walking around with long lists of mistakes."
Joe Nocera on incoming New York Times CEO Mark Thompson: "Thompson winds up appearing willfully ignorant, and it makes you wonder what kind of an organization the BBC was when Thompson was running it -- and what kind of leader he was. It also makes you wonder what kind of chief executive he'd be at The Times." CW: Joe Nocera has a penchant for being pretty chummy with some of his subjects & with some business leaders. Apparently this chumminess does not extend to his own boss. This is a gutsy column.
Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "A challenge to a federal law that authorized intercepting international communications involving Americans appeared to face an uphill climb at the Supreme Court on Monday.... The question in the case was whether journalists, lawyers and human rights advocates could show they had been harmed and so had standing to sue, and several justices seemed open to the idea. If the case is dismissed for lack of standing, there is a fair prospect that the Supreme Court will never rule on the constitutionality of the law, a 2008 measure that broadened the government's power to eavesdrop on international communications."
News Ledes
New York Times: "The Walt Disney Company, in a move that gives it a commanding position in the world of fantasy movies, said Tuesday it had agreed to acquire Lucasfilm from its founder, George Lucas, for $4.05 billion in stock and cash."
AP: "As Superstorm Sandy marched slowly inland, millions along the East Coast awoke Tuesday without power or mass transit, with huge swaths of the nation's largest city unusually vacant and dark. New York was among the hardest hit, with its financial heart in Lower Manhattan shuttered for a second day and seawater cascading into the still-gaping construction pit at the World Trade Center. President Barack Obama declared a major disaster in the city and Long Island. The storm that made landfall in New Jersey on Monday evening with 80 mph sustained winds killed at least 16 people in seven states, cut power to more than 7.4 million homes and businesses from the Carolinas to Ohio, caused scares at two nuclear power plants and stopped the presidential campaign cold." ...
... The New York Times' main story is here. The Washington Post's story is here.
... The New York Times live updates for the New York area are here. The Washington Post has a liveblog here. Daily Kos has a list of links to sites livestreaming Sandy coverage. The Weather Channel has lots of info. ...
... NEW. The New York Times has a live feature titled "Tracking the Storm" with reports on areas as the storm moves inland.
... AP: "A huge fire destroyed at least 50 homes in a flooded neighborhood in the New York City borough of Queens. More than 190 firefighters were trying to contain the blaze in the Breezy Point section and two people suffered minor injuries...." ...
... Reuters: "A possible levee breach in northern New Jersey on Tuesday, flooded three towns with 4 to 5 feet of water in the wake of Hurricane Sandy, prompting the evacuation of hundreds from their homes. The towns of Moonachie, Little Ferry and Carlstadt were underwater after the swollen Hackensack River broke its banks, affecting around 2,000 residents...." ...
... Reuters: "Exelon Corp declared an 'alert' at its New Jersey Oyster Creek nuclear power plant due to a record storm surge, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission said, warning that a further water rise could force the country's oldest working plant to use emergency water supplies to cool spent uranium fuel rods. The alert -- the second lowest of four NRC action levels -- came after water levels at the plant rose by more than 6.5 feet, potentially affecting the pumps that circulate water through the plant...." ...
... AP: "A backup generator failed at a New York City hospital Monday night, forcing it to move out more than 200 patients, including 20 babies from the neonatal intensive care unit. Dozens of ambulances lined up around the block outside New York University Tisch Hospital as doctors and nurses began the slow process of evacuation. They started with the sickest and youngest. Some were on respirators operating on battery power."
Reuters: "The U.S. Coast Guard rescued 14 of the 16 crew members who abandoned the replica tall ship HMS Bounty off North Carolina in rough seas caused by Hurricane Sandy, using helicopters on Monday to pluck them from life rafts. A Coast Guard MH-60 Jayhawk rescue helicopter later recovered crew member Claudene Christian, 42, who was described as unresponsive, while continuing to search for the 63-year-old captain of the ship, which sank in 18-foot seas. Christian [was] taken to Albemarle Hospital in Elizabeth City, North Carolina, where a hospital spokesman said she was in 'critical condition.'"
AP: "A major airport in northern Japan was closed Tuesday after construction workers found an unexploded bomb believed to be from World War II. All 92 flights in and out of Sendai airport were cancelled after the 250-kilogram (550-pound) bomb was uncovered during construction near a runway...."