The Commentariat -- August 1

They have acted like terrorists. -- Vice President Joe Biden, referring to Tea Party Republicans, in a closed-door meeting with Democrats

President Obama Sunday night on debt ceiling deal:

... Here's the White House fact sheet on the particulars of the deal. CW: talk about low expectations, it appears the deal isn't as bad as I thought it would be. ...

... AND here's Boehner's fact sheet (pdf) which he prepared for his caucus. As Steve Benen gleefully points out, Boehner's fact sheet is not factual. Boehner lied to his own caucus to make the deal sound more Loon Squad-friendly. With any luck, they won't catch on. ...

... The Washington Post has a handy little chart on who got what. ...

... NEW. CW: As I said yesterday upon looking over the an outline of the deal, so says Nate Silver: "If Democrats read the fine print on the debt deal struck by President Obama and Congressional leaders, they’ll find that it’s a little better than it appears at first glance." ...

... Paul Krugman: "... the deal ... is a disaster, and not just for President Obama and his party. It will damage an already depressed economy; it will probably make America’s long-run deficit problem worse, not better; and most important, by demonstrating that raw extortion works and carries no political cost, it will take America a long way down the road to banana-republic status." ...

... I've posted a Krugman page on Off Times Square. Several other commenters and I have added our New York Times comments; the Times has held back all of them, so -- as usual -- this is the place to read same-day comments. ...

... ** Too Late. The Damage Is Already Done. David Sanger of the New York Times: "Among foreign leaders and in global markets, the political histrionics have eroded America’s already diminishing aura as the world’s economic haven and the sole country with the power to lead the rest of the world out of financial crisis and recession. It has chipped away at the global authority of President Obama, who was celebrated abroad when he came to office as a man who would end an era of American unilateralism. Now the topic of discussion in other capitals is whether the Age of Obama is giving way to an Age of Austerity, one that will inevitably reduce America’s influence internationally." ...

... Matt Miller of the Washington Post writes an excellent column the headline of which is "The debt deal: disaster averted, decline straight ahead." ...

... Greg Sargent: "... it apppears the GOP is on the verge of pulling off a political victory that may be unprecedented in American history. Republicans may succeed in using the threat of a potential outcome that they themselves acknowledged would lead to national catastrophe as leverage to extract enormous concessions from Democrats, without giving up anything of any significance in return." ...

... AND Sargent on Obama's tactics: "... while critics ... argue that there is plenty more Obama could have done to rally the public to pressure Republicans, it’s important to note that Obama and Dems did win the P.R. battle. Multiple polls showed strong support for compromise; they showed a decisive shift towards the notion that failure to raise the debt ceiling could be catastrophic; they showed the public would blame the GOP for failure. Yet that didn’t stop the GOP from allowing the threat of default to linger, even as it upped its demands." ...

... Long Ride on a Blunder Bus. Jonathan Chait of The New Republic: "There’s a limit to how much faith one can place in a man who has so badly misjudged his political opponents time and time again. The debt ceiling ransom may be a shrewd strategic retreat, or it may be the largest in a series of historic capitulations." ...

... Michael Scherer of Time: Americans' Number One priority is jobs, and the debt deal means at least short-term limits on jobs creation. CW: frankly, I think that's the cynical understory in the Tea Party Plan to Wreck America.

... Cuts Will Make a Weak Economy Weaker. Binyamin Appelbaum & Catherine Rampell of the New York Times: "The emerging outlines of a deal to cut spending by at least $2.4 trillion over 10 years, with a multibillion-dollar down payment later this year, would complete an about-face in the federal government’s role from outsize spending in the immediate aftermath of the recession to outsize cuts going forward." CW: funny how in the last couple of days -- at least a month after it was too late -- stories like this are finally moving off the op-ed pages & blogs & into the news & analysis pages. ...

... Daniel Stone of the Daily Beast: Vice President Joe "Biden hasn’t been heard from publicly in 61 days, since he last spoke with Italian President Giorgio Napolitano on a visit to Rome. But on the day that a final deal with Republicans finally came together, White House officials said that Biden had been the key player in the administration's dealings with Congress, especially late in the negotiations when talks descended repeatedly into partisan warfare...." ...

... New York Times Editors: "... this episode demonstrates the effectiveness of extortion. Reasonable people are forced to give in to those willing to endanger the national interest." ...

... Washington Post Editors: "When the hostage is released, everyone breathes a sigh of relief, no matter what it took to secure his safety." ...

... USA Today Editors: They didn't cut enough! CW: really. ...

... Wall Street Journal Editors: Ditto. Of course. Oh, and blame it on liberals. ...

... Simon Johnson, writing in Bloomberg News, zeros in on "the U.S.’s single largest fiscal problem over the next decade: The lack of adequate capital buffers at banks." He explains.

Profs. Jacob Hacker & Oona Hathaway in a New York Times op-ed: "After the debt crisis ends, the democracy crisis must be tackled. Nobody wins when our constitutional system falters: not the president, who gains unilateral power but loses a governing partner; not Congress, which gets to blame the president but risks irrelevance; and certainly not the American people, who have to bear the resulting dysfunction."

Local News

More Reasons Florida Sucks. Kevin Sack of the New York Times: "Despite having the country’s fourth-highest unemployment rate, its second-highest rate of people without insurance and a $3.7 billion budget gap this year, the state has turned away scores of millions of dollars in grants made available under the Affordable Care Act. And it is not pursuing grants worth many millions more. In recent months, either [America's Worst Governor] Rick Scott’s administration or the state’s Republican-controlled Legislature has rejected grants aimed at moving long-term care patients into their homes, curbing child abuse through in-home counseling and strengthening state regulation of health premiums. They have shunned money to help sign up eligible recipients for Medicare, educate teenagers on preventing pregnancy and plan for the health insurance exchanges that the law requires by 2014."

News Ledes

Reuters: "Israel has told Middle East power brokers it was ready to discuss a proposed package on borders with Palestinians to help Western powers revive stalled peace talks, an Israeli official said Monday. The official denied reports by Israeli and other media outlets that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had backed down from an earlier rejection of President Barack Obama's proposal to negotiate a pullback to so-called 1967 borders."

Washington Post: "The House approved a bill that raises the federal debt limit and cuts discretionary spending by $1 trillion over the next 10 years. The 269 to 161 vote sends the bill to the Senate, which is likely to consider the plan Tuesday. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords cast her first vote in the House since being shot in January, voting yes." ...

... CBS News: "Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords of Arizona made a surprise return to Washington Monday to vote in favor of an agreement to raise the debt limit.... Lawmakers offered Giffords a standing ovation on the House floor when she showed up in the chamber. House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi said Giffords' name inspires the love and admiration of Americans, and said to applause: 'Thank you, Gabby.'" AP story here, with what looks like a screengrab. ...

... New York Times: "Democratic and Republican leaders in the Congress began making their final arguments on behalf of Sunday’s debt ceiling deal to skeptical members in advance of votes in both chambers that could come as early as Monday afternoon." ...

    ... Update. New Headline (the lede hasn't caught up yet): "House passes bill on debt ceiling."

Here's the Washington Post's take on the politics of the deal. "The deal was negotiated primarily by Vice President Biden and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). It teetered all day on the edge of completion as House Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) bickered with Democrats over whether to freeze next year’s defense budget. In the end, Boehner conceded the point, and Obama finalized the agreement in phone calls to each of the four congressional leaders shortly after 8 p.m."

Washington Post: "Asian and European markets surged Monday after President Obama and congressional leaders reached a deal to raise the debt ceiling, avoiding a U.S. default that threatened painful implications for the global economy." ...

     ... CW Update: the American stock market sure ain't liking it. See widget above. New York Times: "Stocks on Wall Street briefly followed European and Asian financial markets higher Monday, but any relief over the last-minute agreement on a framework in Washington to raise the United States debt limit was short-lived.... The dip coincided with the release of new data that showed American manufacturing growing more slowly...."

AP: "British banking group HSBC said Monday it will cut 30,000 jobs worldwide by 2013 and sell almost half its retail bank branches in the U.S., part of a new strategy to focus on fast-growing emerging markets." CW: yesterday the story was 10,000 jobs."

The Commentariat -- July 31

Tea Potty Floats Past Rudderless Ship of State. Maureen Dowd bemoans the lack of leadership in Congress or from this guy: "The laconic president emerges from the sidelines periodically to warn about economic default, but we’re already in political default." ...

... I've posted a comments page on Maureen Dowd's column on Off Times Square. Update: Karen Garcia & I have posted our comments. Garcia's made the cut. The moderators held back mine, so you'll have to read it here. ...

... NEW. Read It and Weep. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "On Sunday morning, [Senate Minority Leader Mitch] McConnell [R-Ky.] sketched the outlines of a $3 trillion, debt framework that would pair an immediate increase in the federal borrowing limit with immediate spending cuts. The proposal would also include caps on spending over the next decade and would mandate that a bipartisan committee of lawmakers recommend further cuts and potential changes to entitlement programs by the fall, with a 'trigger' mechanism to ensure that action is taken to reduce the debt if the committee reaches a stalemate. The process would involve a 'resolution of disapproval' by Congress that would allow the debt ceiling to be further raised next year if one-third of either chamber agrees – an idea first proposed by McConnell in a 'Plan B' he unveiled several weeks ago. The move would shift the political burden of raising the debt ceiling to the White House from congressional Republicans. Also included in the nascent proposal would be a provision calling for a vote on a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution...." ...

... Even worse, you can watch & listen to Mitch explain the deal to Gloria Borger of CNN:

... In which the only panelist worth hearing is Krugman. I put these videos up on Off Times Square in response to a comment, but just to hear Krugman -- and the delusion he's up against -- is enlightening for us all:

... Very Serious Suckers. Paul Krugman: "Anyone reading the newspapers with an open mind had a pretty good idea of what would happen in the debt fight; only Washington insiders managed to fool themselves." ...

... Eric Dash & Nelson Schwartz of the New York Times: "In the last few days, top [Wall Street] executives have been in close contact with Washington in a last-ditch attempt to prod lawmakers toward a compromise by Tuesday...." ...

... Green Eggs & Ham. Frank Bruni has breakfast with Grover Norquist.

New York Times Editors: "The economy is in trouble, and Washington — fixated on budget slashing at a time when the economy needs more spending — seems determined to make matters worse." The editors have some admittedly piecemeal suggestions to help keep the economy from returning to full recession mode. ...

... CW: As I've Been Saying, Ad Nauseum. Catherine Rampell of the New York Times: "... there is, in theory, a happy solution to our debt troubles. It’s called economic growth. No need to raise taxes or cut programs. Just get the economy growing the way it used to.... Back in the Great Depression, Washington tightened its belt with disastrous results. Congress severely reduced spending in 1937, plunging the economy back into the hole. Ultimately, that meant even more federal borrowing.... After World War II, gross federal debt reached 122 percent of G.D.P., the highest ratio on record. But over the next 40 years, it fell to about 33 percent. That wasn’t because some blue-ribbon panel prescribed austerity; it was because the American economy became much, much richer.... Countries that undertake fiscal consolidation in the midst of a crisis — like the one Washington is in right now — tend to be penny-wise and pound-foolish." ...

... The Ratings Agencies Really Don't Care about You. Peter Schroeder of The Hill: "The 'limited magnitude' of both debt plans put forward by congressional leaders would not put the nation's AAA credit rating back on solid footing, Moody's Investors Service announced Friday.... It added that 'prolonged debt ceiling deliberations' have increased the odds of a downgrade.... As far as it is concerned, the nation will only default if it misses an interest or principal payment on U.S. debt, not if it misses payments on other obligations like federal employee salaries or Social Security benefits." [emphasis added]

The president’s proposing cuts to Social Security and Medicare has the potential to sap the energy of the Democratic base — among older voters because of Medicare and Medicaid and younger voters because of the lack of jobs. And second, all these fiscal austerity proposals on the table will make the economy worse. -- Damon Silvers, AFL-CIO policy director ...

... Jackie Calmes of the New York Times notices Our Conservative Republican President has turned off liberal voters. No kidding. ...

... NEW. Glenn Greenwald: "... a slew of millionaire politicians who spent the last decade exploding the national debt with Endless War, a sprawling Surveillance State, and tax cuts for the rich are now imposing extreme suffering on the already-suffering ordinary citizenry, all at the direction of their plutocratic overlords, who are prospering more than ever and will sacrifice virtually nothing under this deal (despite their responsibility for the 2008 financial collapse that continues to spawn economic misery).  And all of this will be justified by these politicians and their millionaire media mouthpieces with the obscenely deceitful slogans of 'shared sacrifice' and 'balanced debt reduction' -- two of the most odiously Orwellian phrases since 'Look Forward, not Backward' and '2009 Nobel Peace Prize laureate.'..." ...

... Pollster Stan Greenberg in a New York Times op-ed: "... many voters prefer the policies of Democrats to the policies of Republicans. They just don’t trust the Democrats to carry out those promises.... They think that the game is rigged and that the wealthy and big industries get policies that reinforce their advantage. And they do not think their voices matter." Greenberg proposes a series of prescriptions that Democrats should follow to turn around public prescriptions.

News Ledes

** New York Times: "President Obama and Congressional leaders of both parties said late Sunday that they had agreed to a framework for a budget deal that would cut trillions of dollars in federal spending over the next decade and clear the way for an increase in the government’s borrowing limit."

Politico: "Late in the afternoon, a statement from Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) said: 'Senator Reid has signed off on the debt-ceiling agreement pending caucus approval.'"

New York Times: "HSBC, Europe’s biggest bank, plans to announce thousands of job cuts on Monday as part of a wide-ranging cost-reduction program that started in May, a person with direct knowledge of the decision said Sunday. HSBC plans to cut about 10,000 jobs, or 3 percent of its global work force...."

At 1:20 pm ET, it appears the Senate is voting on cloture on the Reid bill. So the vote failed & they're going to reconsider it at 4:00 pm ET. Reid says he's still working with the House & the Administration. Jay Newton-Small of Time has an update on negotiations, but the rank-and-file of both parties are wary of the deal, she says.

If there's a word that would be right here that would sum up the mood, it would be relief ... default is far less of a possibility now than it was a day ago. -- Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY)

ABC News: "Democratic and Republican Congressional sources involved in the negotiations tell ABC News that a tentative agreement has been reached on the framework of a deal that would give the President a debt ceiling increase of up to $2.4 trillion and guarantee an equal amount of deficit reduction over the next 10 years. The details are still being worked out, and a senior White House aide tells ABC News, 'talks continue but there is no deal to report.'" Bloomberg News: ditto. ...

... Here's the latest from the Washington Post. AND the latest from the New York Times is here.

... Washington Post: "Shortly after 10 p.m., Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) announced that talks between McConnell (R-Ky.) and Vice President Biden had made significant progress, prompting Reid to delay a vote that had been scheduled for 1 a.m. Sunday on his own debt-limit measure."

Los Angeles Times: "Syrian security forces loyal to the embattled regime of President Bashar Assad launched a major military assault on opposition strongholds Sunday, using tanks and gunfire in authorities' latest attempt to crush a pro-democracy movement that appears to be gathering momentum ahead of the emotionally and religiously charged holy month of Ramadan." Al Jazeera story here; with video.

The Commentariat -- July 30

I've posted an Open Thread for today's Off Times Square.

The President's weekly address:

     ... The transcript is here. ...

     ... Binyamin Appelbaum of the New York Times: "Mr. Obama ... laid the blame for the impasse squarely on House Republicans in his weekly address, which largely repeated his remarks on Friday as the stalemate gripped Washington."

... Republican senators say "compromise." This video was produced by Senate Democrats:

... "The Tea Fragger Party." Conservative Kathleen Parker of the Washington Post: "Fragging: 'To intentionally kill or wound (one’s superior officer, etc.), esp. with a hand grenade.' The behavior of certain Republicans who call themselves Tea Party conservatives makes them the most destructive posse of misguided 'patriots' we’ve seen in recent memory.... The Tea Party was a movement that changed the conversation in Washington, but it has steeped too long and has become toxic. It’s time to toss it out." ...

... Steve Benen: "... Boehner has spent at least two weeks tending to the self-esteem of right-wing lawmakers, telling them how great and important they are, and reinforcing their belief that they’ll never have to compromise with anyone on anything. And today, instead of slowly trying to acclimate his caucus to reality, Boehner will lead them into yet another chest-thumping tantrum. Boehner, at this point, seems principally concerned with his political survival, no matter the consequences for the rest of us." ...

... Ezra Klein: "Boehner has spent the past two days wasting his political capital assembling an irrelevant coalition of conservatives.... Boehner has not been governing. What should have happened Friday is obvious: Having failed to pass a conservative resolution to the debt crisis without Democratic votes, he should have begun cutting the deals and making the concessions necessary to gain Democratic votes." ...

... AND Klein reviews opinions on the Constitutional option. ...

... Jonathan Chait of The New Republic reviews how we got in this mess, & he seems to make Washington pundits the fall guys. Obama initially wanted a clean bill but the punditocracy talked him into linking the debt limit to deficit reduction: "... the deficit hawks who represent the center of Washington establishment thought badly underestimated the danger entailed by tying high stakes negotiations involving the Republican Party to a cataclysmic event. Happy visions of Bob Dole and Tip O'Neill danced in their heads, oblivious to the reality of what they were facing." CW: but hasn't Obama repeatedly asserted that he "never listens" to the bobbleheads? Well, at least Obama didn't listen to me; I've said all along he should insist on a clean bill.

... Tara Bernard of the New York Times: Whatever deficit deal emerges, the parties have all agreed Social Security is "on the table" (CW: make that the operating table, surrounded by doctors wielding dull scalpels), even though it has not contributed to to the deficit. CW: in fact, the Congress has routinely borrowed Social Security funds to reduce the deficits in annual budgets. That's why Social Security, though technically in the black, is actually out of money. It's got nothng but monthly receipts & a fistful of IOUs from Treasury.

Actually, No.John Judis of The New Republic: Barack Obama twists Abraham Lincoln's words & deeds 180 degrees to fit a narrative that grievously mischaracterizes the former President. See also Ta-Nahisi Coates column here, and John Farrish's comment (#3) here. I hope somebody buys Obama an accurate biography of Lincoln for his (Obama's) birthday, which is this coming week. ...

... Last December historian Eric Foner contrasted Obama's & Lincoln's reactions to their mid-term election "shellackings":

Charles Blow writes a very affecting column about his grandfather Fred Rhodes who was recommended for a Silver Star for bravery in action during World War II, but certainly because he was black, did not receive one.

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "A New York Times reporter need not testify in court about who gave him details on a top-secret CIA program targeting Iran, a federal judge has ruled. In May, federal prosecutors subpoenaed Times reporter James Risen to testify against former CIA officer Jeffrey Sterling, who's accused of revealing top-secret details about a CIA effort to undermine Iran's nuclear program. Prosecutors allege that Sterling was a source for Risen...."

CW: I linked an item on this earlier in the week, but it bears repeating. Steve Benen: "... an unexpected religious coalition [is] trying to influence the outcome of the debt-ceiling fight on Capitol Hill. This coalition, made up of several different Christian denominations [is] looking out for those [poor people] likely to be hurt the most by the Republican crisis.... Congressional Republicans, who traditionally present themselves as allied with religious morality, continue to believe cutting public investments is paramount, whether Jesus would pursue a similar course or not."

News Ledes

New York Times: "The top two Republicans in Congress said Saturday that they had begun new talks with President Obama and their fellow Congressional leaders to try to find a way to end the debt limit fight that is threatening to throw the federal government into default in just a few days.... Senator Mitch McConnell [R-Ky.]... said during a news conference ... that he expected a deal soon." The Reid bill won't pass the Senate because 43 Republicans will vote against it, which means the vote on cloture will come up short. ...

     ... Update. The story has a new lede: "New budget talks between top Congressional Republicans and President Obama made progress late Saturday, suddenly stirring optimism that a last-minute deal could be reached to avert a potential federal default that threatened significant economic and political consequences." Majority Leader Reid delayed the vote on his compromise bill until 1:00 pm ET Sunday.

... At 6:05 pm ET, Harry Reid said McConnell's assertion that there would be "a deal soon" is not true; Reid said no progress has been made today. No link. ...

... At 3:12 pm ET, the House voted down the Reid bill. Big surprise. Majority Leader Eric Cantor is making a speech; says there are no planned votes tomorrow, but warns that could change. New York Times item here. ...

... The Hill: "Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) has revised his plan to raise the debt limit in a last-ditch bid to attract Republican support. The biggest change is that Reid would give the president almost unilateral power to raise the debt limit, borrowing an idea introduced by Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.)."

Washington Post on the upcoming Senate votes on a debt limit bill. Reuters on the same.

New York Times: "The leadership of the Libyan rebels acknowledged late Friday that a group of their own soldiers had killed their top military commander, contradicting statements made a day earlier as the rebels scrambled to avoid tribal revenge attacks that could divide their ranks. The death of the commander, Gen. Abdul Fattah Younes, has shaken both the rebel leaders trying to oust Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi and their Western supporters by revealing divisions and intrigue within the rebel forces. The shifting and elliptical accounts of General Younes’s death have raised new questions about the rebel leaders’ credibility."

New York Times: "Employees of The New York Post, Rupert Murdoch’s irreverent and hard-charging city tabloid, were told Friday to keep any documents that may pertain to the kind of illegal activity that has led to arrests and a widening investigation at the News Corporation’s British newspapers.... The directive was the clearest sign yet that the company’s lawyers believe the scope of two early-stage investigations in the United States ... could broaden."