The Commentariat -- November 1

"Crazy Carl" Paladino, New York's Republican gubernatorial candidate, walks out on a live CNN interview after the host asks him if his remarks about Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand sexist:

Intrigue! Maggie Haberman & Jonathan Allen of Politico: "Bill Clinton’s recent attempts to suggest struggling Democrat Kendrick Meek should opt out of the Florida Senate race ... [were] only the culmination of a long, delicate, and occasionally testy string of stop-and-start talks that began months ago involving the Florida candidates [Meek & Charlie Crist], the former president, and political aides in the Obama White House, who sought Clinton's intervention as long ago as early spring."

More Intrigue! The Morgan Freeman Scandal. For a few days now, North Carolina Republican Congressional candidate B. J. Lawson has been claiming that actor Morgan Freeman did the voiceover for Lawson's campaign. The campaign even gave Ben Smith a story about how Freeman came to cut the ad for Lawson. Here's the ad. It surely sounds like Freeman:

     ... BUT Morgan Freeman's spokesperson Stan Rosenfeld sent Smith this categorical denial from Freeman:

These people are lying. I have never recorded any campaign ads for B.J. Lawson and I do not support his candidacy. And, no one who represents me ever has ever authorized the use of my name, voice or any other likeness in support of Mr. Lawson or his candidacy.

     ... Lawson's opponent, long-time Democratic Rep. David Price, says Lawson should "pull down the ads. “This is an unfortunate and desperate attempt to fool voters in the last hours of a campaign. By using Mr. Freeman’s good name, BJ Lawson has ruined his own, and he should be ashamed. Now the voters will decide whom they trust."

An inanimate conversation reminding you of why you want to vote:

Best closing campaign ad ever. Lee Fisher hasn't got a chance of becoming Ohio's next senator, but he would get my vote:

... AND this LeBron James ad for Nike ...

    ... inspired this terrific Fisher ad:

Constant Weader News Flash. Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (the real guy, not a recording) just called & urged me to vote for Alex Sink for governor & Rod Smith for lieutenant governor. Not a word about Senate candidate Kendrick Meek or any other Democratic candidates. ...

       ... Update: not a big deal, after all. Ben Smith of Politico checked it out & told me Nelson was working for the state party, which is prohibited from spending their money specifically mentioning candidates for federal offices...

When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be dampened … if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue... In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns. -- Sun Tzu, with some advice for our own war lords, via Mark Thompson of Time

Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal: "A recently released al Qaeda martyrdom videotape ... reveal[s] that, in sharp contrast to the current, official assessment of top US intelligence officials, al Qaeda has an extensive network in Afghanistan as well as a deep bench of experienced leaders." Also via Mark Thompson

You can count on President Carter for a unique & insightful take:

This Is Disgusting. Lori Montgomery of the Washington Post: the latest White House strategy on tax cuts "... calls for permanent extension of cuts that benefit families earning less than $250,000 a year, and temporary extension of cuts on income above that amount." CW: just signal you're going to give away the store, then let Republicans make it even worse. The Obama Administration could scarcely be more tactically foolish or profligate.

"Mugged by the Debt Moralizers." Paul Krugman on American voters' misplaced anger: "... by rejecting fiscal stimulus and debt relief, they’re perpetuating high unemployment. They are, in effect, cutting off their own jobs to spite their neighbors. But they don’t know that." Krugman begins his column by quoting Rick Santelli's gramatically-challenged cri de coeur, which Krugman credits with inspiring the tea party movement: "How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills?" The Constant Weader doesn't quite agree with Krugman. Here's the short version of my response:

Washington politicians of both parties, whatever they say their principles are, don't have any. The jobs they want to save are their own. They do so by catering to the big money interests who fund their campaigns, and they feed the public a litany of platitudes they don't believe or intend to enact.

One thing you have to say for tea party members. They've figured that out. This election may be about punishment, as you argue, but I don't think it's the neighbors with extra bathrooms voters want to punish. I think voters want to punish the politicians -- politicians who have brought us to a place in which most of us are fearful we won't have even one pot to piss in.

Michael Muskal of the Los Angeles Times: non-voters will decide the midterm results. "According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center..., there likely will be more non-voters this year than voters.... The survey shows that those who choose not to exercise their franchise likely will be younger, less educated and more financially stressed than those who call themselves likely voters. And, not surprisingly, those who choose not to vote could be considered more liberal than those who do."

Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times: "Republicans made their closing argument on Sunday for capturing control of Congress, assailing President Obama as a champion of wasteful and excessive government, as Democrats countered that returning power to Republicans would empower corporations and the wealthy with disastrous results for middle-class Americans."

Has Generation O Become Generation No? Damien Cave of the New York Times: "... former [young] Obama volunteers nationwide say that they and their former colleagues are less involved and more ambivalent. Experts say the usual midterm effect, in which young voters are especially likely to disengage, has combined with an unexpected distance that has arisen between Mr. Obama and his young constituents."

Matt Bai in The New York Times Magazine on the similarities between grass-roots activists on the left and right.

Ezra Klein in Newsweek: most politicians hate the money-grubbing system, but they won't change it because they're good at grubbing & the process is so undignified that it discourages dignified potential opponents.

James Hohmann & John Harris of Politico on why the candidates debates were so bad, the responses to questions so robotic & the attacks so vitriolic. AND they include a quote by Larry Sabato! *

Evan Osnos of The New Yorker on what the Chinese think of the American midterms: "From the Chinese perspective, Americans appear to be thrashing against the realities of a new era: faced with a sudden sense of weakness and global changes in power, Americans look unable to summon the energy or unity to make even the simplest self-sustaining choices, and instead, are seeking refuge in the tinny appeals and false comfort of demagogues."

Mike Allen & Jim VandeHei of Politico: "Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.... Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating...." ...

     ... Update. Ben Smith notes that SarahPAC is already using the Allen-VandeHei article as a fundraising tool. Here's the SarahPAC page. ...

Politico, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, they're jokes. This is a joke to have unnamed sources tearing somebody apart limb by limb. If they would man up and if they would, you know, make these claims against me then I can debate them, I can talk about it, but to me they're making stuff up again. I don't think the paper that we just printed this article on, you know, it's not worth even wrapping my King Salmon in. I'll just ignore this crap. -- Sarah Palin, on Fox "News," responding in her usual, statesman-like, presidenty way

Time's Adam Sorensen remembers Uncle Ted.

The Media Are the Message. In an opinion piece titled "Rally to Shift the Blame," David Carr of the New York Times criticizes Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert for attacking the messenger; i.e., the media. ...

... NEW. Brian Stelter of the New York Times has final numbers for the Stewart-Colbert Sanity/Fear Rally.

Neil Irwin of the Washington Post: "The Federal Reserve is preparing to put its credibility on the line as it rarely has before by taking dramatic new action this week to try jolting the economy out of its slumber.... The meeting of Fed policymakers Tuesday and Wednesday is set to be a defining moment of Ben S. Bernanke's second term as chairman of the central bank. Although he helped win the war against the great financial panic of 2008 and 2009, he now risks losing the peace if he fails to end the protracted economic downturn that followed."

Steve Coll of The New Yorker provides some evidence that Julian Assange of WikiLeaks really is a little nutty & a little slutty.

New York Times reporters write that "The foiling of the [bomb] package plot was a significant success in an era of well-publicized intelligence breakdowns and miscommunications. It was also a sobering reminder ... that quick response to timely intelligence rules the day.... But the plot also points up holes in the system, particularly the security of cargo flights, that have already caused criticism abroad and are likely to rekindle new debates in the United States."

Don Lee of the Los Angeles Times: Millions of Americans are keeping up their payments on mortgages even though the values of their properties is less than their mortgage debts. "... with home prices stagnant in much of the country, payments on mortgages that are underwater could absorb billions of dollars that might be used for other forms of consumer spending — a drag on family finances, the housing market and the overall economy."

Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar of the AP: "Fifty years after the pill, another birth control revolution may be on the horizon: free contraception for women in the U.S., thanks to the new health care law.... But first, look for a fight over social mores.... U.S. Catholic bishops say pregnancy is a healthy condition, not an illness. In comments filed with the Department of Health and Human Services, the bishops say they oppose any requirement to cover contraceptives or sterilization as preventive care."

* See Mark Francis Cohen in a 2005 American Journalism Review article titled "The Quote Machines." Cohen begins with Sabato's boast, "I'm probably the most quoted college professor in the land."

The Commentariat -- Scary Stories, Plus

CBS reporters are on tape saying, 'Let’s find a child molester in the crowd that supports Miller.... Those are corrupt bastards. -- Sarah Palin, keeping it classy on Fox "News" this morning

      ... Here's the video:

... Famous tape editor & ABC News "election analyst" Andrew Breitbart posts the purported tape & transcript. ...

     ... Update. Breitbart Punks Palin, et al. David Edwards & Daniel Tencer of the Raw Story: Fox "News" reporting undercuts Palin's, Breitbart's claims. With video. ...

     ... Greg Sargent: "Breitbart's Big Journalism site is making an incendiary accusation: That reporters at the Anchorage CBS affiliate KTVA were caught conspiring to damage Tea Party Senate candidate Joe Miller.... But it's unclear from the recording precisely what, if anything, was being plotted. And now the station is adamantly denying the charges." Here's the full statement from KTVA General Manager Jerry Bever. ...

     ... Update: David Brock of Media Matters: release the tapes, Gov. Palin.

... Even Palin's Tweets Are Getting Loonier. Brian Beutler of Talking Points Memo reports on one she probably wishes she (or her ghostwriter) hadn't sent.

Scary but True. Neela Banerjee of the Los Angeles Times: "If the GOP wins control of the House next week, senior congressional Republicans plan to launch a blistering attack on the Obama administration's environmental policies, as well as on scientists who link air pollution to climate change."

Scary if True. David Broder, the Washington Post 's warmonger in chief & amateur economist extraordinaire, says President Obama will win re-election because he will ratchet up for war with Iran, which will boost the economy. Besides, Americans will rally around a war President, as we always do. ...

        ... Dean Baker, an actual economist, responds:

If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that's right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit). So, we have two routes to prosperity. We can either build up our phsyical infrastructure and improve the skills and education of our workers or we can go kill Iranians. Broder has made it clear where he stands. Via Matt Duss of Think Progress

        ... Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy, who wonders if Broder has lost his mind, adds more:

... this is crazy for a number of reasons. One is that markets don't like tensions, and certainly not the kind that jack up oil prices. Second, World War II brought the United States out of the Great Depression because it was a massive economic stimulus program that mobilized entire sectors of society. Today's American military has all the tools it needs to fight Iran, and there isn't going to be any sort of buildup.

Frank Rich makes the case that the rank-and-file tea party members have neither the numbers nor the financial clout to have any real effect on legislation. Even if some of their candidates win, they'll be more useful to Democrats who will characterize them as typical Republican extremists than to Republicans, who will sideline them.

Maureen Dowd on President Obama: "In 2008, the message was him. The promise was him. And that’s why 2010 is a referendum on him. With his coalition and governing majority shattering around him, President Obama will have to summon political skills — starting Wednesday — that he has not yet shown he has." ...

... Nicholas Kristof, by contrast, thinks we should give President Obama a break, that he's a victim of the bad economy & that he's done some great things nobody noticed.

CW: this essay is a month old, but it isn't stale. Michael Tomasky in the New York Review of Books: the Democrats continue to have a messaging problem that many thought Obama had the talent to solve. "Republican themes, like 'liberty,' are popular, while Republican policies often are not; and Democratic themes ('community,' 'compassion,' 'justice') are less popular, while many specific Democratic programs—Social Security, Medicare, even (in many polls) putting a price on carbon emissions—have majority support."

Prof. Tyler Cowen in the New York Times: "... continuing arrival of immigrants to American shores is encouraging business activity here, thereby producing more jobs, according to a new study. Its authors argue that the easier it is to find cheap immigrant labor at home, the less likely that production will relocate offshore." CW translation: oppressed workers in the U.S. take jobs away from oppressed workers in other countries, & that has side benefits.

This is a terrific ten-minute discussion of gerrymandering produced by the libertarian Reason Foundation. Chances are you'll learn something you didn't know. I did:

They Loved It before They Hated It*

Yesterday I commented on Maureen Dowd's column on President Obama's failure to employ his political skills during his time in office. The moderators at the Times liked my comment so much they highlighted it as being "one of the most interesting and thoughtful comments." Admittedly, this doesn't mean much, as they often highlight some pretty stupid shit, but it implies they had read my comment. A few hours later a friend wrote to tell me the commenters had removed my "interesting and thoughtful comment" because it was off-topic or abusive. So here's the comment. You decide:

The problem is that the President has been anything but audacious. Jon Stewart aptly characterized those "big accomplishments" the President touts as "timid." Obama has taken such middle-of-the-road or right-leaning positions on everything that he appears to have done nothing brave or forward-looking at all. He hired most of Bill Clinton's old staff, & he proceeded to govern as if he were Clinton without the Charisma. One of the effects of growing up in situations where he was best off not to offend is that he seems to see both inoffensiveness and standoffishness as desirable styles of governance.

Though he has governed in much the way either Clinton would have, Obama seems more like Bush Pere than like the Clintons. The aloof, cerebral elitism we saw in Bush I is little different from what we see in Obama. President Reagan famously said of George I, "He doesn't really stand for anything." The same can be said for Obama. He hobnobs with the same gang of special interests, he appears indifferent to the atrocities he has perpetuated in Afghanistan, and his social policies are even more conservative than were those of George I. The Americans with Disability Act was expensive, but it had teeth. In just about every town in the country, we see evidence that it is working. Just step off a curb -- oh, wait, you don't have to because the curb now eases gently to the pavement for wheelchair access.

By contrast, Obama's healthcare & financial reform laws appear to be having little positive affect on people's lives. We see that in Obama's example of how well they're working. Again and again, he has trotted out the same New England woman who was able to get healthcare coverage when she couldn't before. I'm darned happy for that woman, but in a country of three million people, many of them still without health insurance and the rest seeing their healthcare costs continuing to rise, the good fortune of one woman who was able to capitalize on some sliver of the massive Affordable Care Law is cold comfort. Meanwhile, the Administration is giving waivers to companies like McDonalds, which pay their workers peanuts, but who still recoil at the weak mandate to provide healthcare coverage (at employee expense, of course).

Similarly, New York County, a/k/a Manhattan, is the U.S. county where incomes have risen the most. Why? Because Wall Street is in New York County. If you want a pay raise, get a job on Wall Street. I find Obama's assurances that he knows "we haven't done enough" infuriating. He's done enough for bankers and financiers. I was heartened to read that at least TARP turned out to be a pretty good deal, till the next week I read that the Secretary Geithner was cooking the books, underestimating the costs of deals like the one with AIG. Meanwhile, banks have been able to get away with foreclosing on homeowners without any paperwork except an affidavit telling the courts that really, they have that paperwork somewhere, at the same time the same banks are telling homeowners they can't refinance because their paperwork isn't in order. Not a peep from Obama about that! And as far as I can tell, the Consumer Financial Protection Board, which hasn't done anything yet, will do nothing more than give people another piece of paper that supposedly tells them what all the other pieces of paper mean. How helpful is that?

Don't get me started on human rights. There, we do see some audacity. Unfortunately, it's of the same type we recognize from Bush-Cheney. Left-leaning observers report audacious incident after audacious incident of "detainees" being deprived of basic rights. Even when "secret" documents & occurrences are known to the public, the Obama Administration invokes the state secrets doctrine. On the home front, we're still living under DADT & DOMA. The President told Joe Sudbay of AmericaBlog last week that his position on gay marriage was "evolving." Let's hope that means it's "evolving" back to what it was in 2003, when he favored gay marriage. In the meantime, gay people with families and children who are growing up wondering why their parents don't get married like everybody else, just be patient!

As Obama says, change takes time. But there is little evidence that any change will ever take place. The Senate is sitting on some 500 bills the House passed, and there's no reason to think most of those bills will ever find their ways to the President's desk. Even if they do, they will be so watered down, like the bills that did get through, that they will do little to "change" anything.

It was a lot easier for Obama to sell that hopey-changey thing before he had to deliver on it than it now when we know he did not stand and deliver. Nowadays, sensible observers are just way short on hope that things are gonna change.

* Update: after a couple of hours, they loved it again & reposted my comment.