;)
The Commentariat -- July 20, 2021
Late Morning Update:
The Washington Post's live updates of Jeff Bezos' inner-space flight are here. The New York Times' live updates are here. The capsule & booster both landed safely. ~~~
Oh, I have slipped the surly bonds of earth, where the help says pay us what we're worth. -- Jeff Bezos, press conference today (MB: Okay, not necessarily true.)
The New York Times' live updates of Covid-19 developments Tuesday are here.
~~~~~~~~~~
Kenneth Chang of the New York Times: "On Tuesday..., Jeff Bezos, the richest human being in the universe..., will strap into a capsule built by his rocket company, Blue Origin, and blast off ... to more than 62 miles above West Texas.... Blue Origin is aiming for the rocket to take off at 9 a.m. Eastern time on Tuesday, July 20. The company will begin coverage of the launch at 7:30 a.m. on its YouTube channel. The date coincides with the 52nd anniversary of the Apollo 11 moon landing." ~~~
~~~ Adam Gabbatt of the Guardian: "As Jeff Bezos blasts into space on Tuesday, his voyage has some people asking whether the billionaire's time, or at least money, might be better spent here on earth..., given the long-running complaints about working conditions at Amazon, and broader concerns about income inequality and the amount of taxes the wealthiest Americans pay -- or don't pay -- to the government.... The critics are 'largely right', Bezos said."
** Olivia Beavers & Heather Caygle of Politico: "House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy has chosen his five GOP appointees for the Democrat-led select committee investigating the Jan. 6 Capitol attack.... McCarthy's choices for the panel, all talked about as likely, are led by Rep. Jim Banks (R-Ind.), chair of the Republican Study Committee, as the ranking member.... The other members include Illinois Rep. Rodney Davis, a moderate who serves as the top Republican on the House Administration Committee; Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan, the top Republican on the House Judiciary Committee; Rep. Kelly Armstrong (R-N.D.), a lawyer by trade who served on the House Judiciary Committee during the first Trump impeachment; and freshman Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas), a former sheriff who supported Capitol Police in turning back rioters who tried to break into the House floor during the siege.... Three out of McCarthy's five expected selections for the Republican side of the select panel voted in favor of challenges to certification of Biden's victory." ~~~
~~~ Marie: Nancy Pelosi can overrule these picks. Let's hope she exercises her prerogative. I wouldn't trust Jim Jordan to serve on a committee honoring apple pie; he would probably start declaiming the crust for being too dark-complexioned: "You can't even tell it's white flour!" Anyhow, Kevin picked all white guys. ~~~
~~~ Update. Marianna Sotomayor, et al., of the Washington Post: "'I've never talked to Donald Trump about this,' McCarthy said. McCarthy's choices will need to be approved by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) before they can sit on the 13-member panel, according to the legislation passed by the House to establish the committee. A Pelosi aide said Monday night that the speaker had just received the names. 'Stay tuned,' said the aide, who was not authorized to publicly discuss the topic."
GOP Senators Oppose Catching Rich Tax Cheats; Could Sink Infrastructure Bill. Jim Tankersley & Emily Cochrane of the New York Times: "Congressional negotiators and the Biden administration tried on Monday to salvage a nearly $600 billion bipartisan agreement to invest in roads, water pipes and other physical infrastructure, after Republicans rejected a key component to pay for the plan and resisted Democratic plans for an initial procedural vote on Wednesday. Senators and administration officials are still working to hammer out the details of the deal, including how to ensure that a plan to finance it will secure 60 votes for Senate passage. White House officials expressed confidence on Monday that the agreement could be finalized. But its fate was uncertain.... A top negotiator said over the weekend that the group jettisoned a key plan included in the deal that would have raised revenue by giving the I.R.S. more power to catch tax cheats." MB: You can be sure those GOP senators would be thrilled if Democrats agreed to transfer the funding from social safety network programs.
Dan Lamothe of the Washington Post: "The Biden administration is planning to temporarily house about 2,500 Afghans fleeing unrest in their home country at Fort Lee, Va., with expansion to other military bases possible in the future, U.S. officials said Monday. The Army post, about 25 miles south of Richmond, will serve as a way-station for Afghans who have passed the State Department's screening for special immigrant visas, said John Kirby, a Pentagon spokesman.... About 4,000 other applicants have received a lower level of approval for visas from the U.S. Embassy in Kabul, [State Department spokesman Ned] Price said. The administration plans to take those individuals to safety in other countries, where they will be provided with accommodations that 'can last a number of months.'"
Joshua Partlow of the Washington Post: "The Biden administration on Monday proposed restoring habitat protections across more than 3 million acres of Pacific Northwest forests that are home to the dwindling population of northern spotted owls -- a bird that has been a symbol of the fight between environmentalists and loggers for decades. The proposed rule change would reverse a decision made in the waning days of the Trump administration that stripped critical habitat protections from swaths of federal lands across 45 counties in Washington, Oregon and California -- more than a third of the bird's total protected habitat and much of it in prime timberland in Oregon's coastal ranges. The U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service wrote in its new Federal Register notice that its own decision from January to exclude more than 3 million acres from protections had 'defects and shortcomings.'"
Missy Ryan of the Washington Post: "The Biden administration on Monday repatriated a detainee from Guantánamo Bay to Morocco, the first transfer of an inmate from the high-security prison since the Trump administration mostly halted the resettlements when he took office in 2017. The transfer of detainee Abdul Latif Nasir, who was held without charge or trial for nearly two decades, leaves 39 inmates at the military facility located on the eastern tip of Cuba, and provides the first concrete illustration of how the administration may attempt to finally shutter the prison.... At its peak, the prison held some 700 detainees, and became a global symbol of U.S. excesses in its response to extremist threats. President Barack Obama vowed to close the prison but, facing congressional opposition, was unable to do so. His administration transferred more than 170 prisoners to their home nation or third countries.... Nasir ... was one of five men whose transfers had been readied at the end of the Obama administration but did not go through." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Zolan Kanno-Youngs & David Sanger of the New York Times: "The Biden administration on Monday formally accused the Chinese government of breaching Microsoft email systems used by many of the world's largest companies, governments and military contractors, as the United States joined a broad group of allies, including all NATO members, to condemn Beijing for cyberattacks around the world. The United States accused China for the first time of paying criminal groups to conduct large-scale hackings, including ransomware attacks to extort companies for millions of dollars, according to a statement from the White House. Microsoft had pointed to hackers linked to the Chinese Ministry of State Security for exploiting holes in the company's email systems in March...." Politico's report is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~
~~~ Nicole Perlroth of the New York Times: "... China has reorganized its hacking operations in the [past decade]. While it once conducted relatively unsophisticated hacks of foreign companies, think tanks and government agencies, China is now perpetrating stealthy, decentralized digital assaults of American companies and interests around the world. Hacks that were conducted via sloppily worded spearphishing emails by units of the People's Liberation Army are now carried out by an elite satellite network of contractors at front companies and universities that work at the direction of China's Ministry of State Security, according to U.S. officials and the indictment."
Craig Timberg, et al., of the Washington Post: "... spyware, produced by Israel's NSO Group and licensed to one of its government clients ... can collect emails, call records, social media posts, user passwords, contact lists, pictures, videos, sound recordings and browsing histories, according to security researchers and NSO marketing materials. The spyware can activate cameras or microphones to capture fresh images and recordings. It can listen to calls and voice mails. It can collect location logs of where a user has been and also determine where that user is now, along with data indicating whether the person is stationary or, if moving, in which direction. And all of this can happen without a user even touching her phone.... These kinds of 'zero-click' attacks, as they are called within the surveillance industry, can work on even the newest generations of iPhones, after years of effort in which Apple attempted to close the door against unauthorized surveillance...." ~~~
~~~ Dana Priest, et al., of the Washington Post: "NSO Group's Pegasus spyware was used to secretly target the smartphones of the two women closest to murdered Saudi columnist Jamal Khashoggi, according to digital forensic analysis. The Android phone of his wife, Hanan Elatr, was targeted by a Pegasus user six months before his killing, but the analysis could not determine whether the hack was successful. The iPhone of his fiancee, Hatice Cengiz, was penetrated by spyware days after the murder, the forensics showed."
Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "Senate Democrats on Monday took their battle for federal voting rights legislation to Georgia -- ground zero in the ongoing wars over how America's elections are conducted -- and held a rare hearing off Capitol Hill to make the case for new nationwide ballot standards. The hearing, held by the Senate Rules and Administration Committee at Atlanta's National Center for Civil and Human Rights, came as Democrats scramble to figure out their next move after Republicans successfully blocked their marquee elections-and-ethics legislation in a Senate test vote last month.... The Democrats who attended Monday's hearing said they intend to keep shining a light on the efforts by Republican legislatures that have already resulted in more than 30 laws that restrict voting in 18 states, according to the nonpartisan Voting Rights Lab.... Republicans did not call witnesses of their own, which they were entitled to do under the committee's rules. In fact, no Republican senator traveled to Atlanta for the hearing -- leaving the stage entirely to the five Democrats who attended and the friendly witnesses they had summoned."
Tess Owen of Vice: "Turns out the American Dental Association might have teeth after all. They've finally cut their longtime pal, onetime 'Dentist of the year' Congressman Paul Gosar off financially.... The move comes less than one week after we reported that the issue of the American Dental Association's ongoing support for the Arizona Republican was dividing the ranks of the so-called 'Tooth Party.'"
Donie O'Sullivan & Paul LeBlanc of CNN: "Twitter on Monday evening temporarily suspended Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene after she shared misinformation about Covid-19 and vaccines, a company spokesperson told CNN. The Georgia Republican, who has a track record of incendiary rhetoric, will not be able to tweet for 12 hours due to Twitter's policy against people who repeatedly share misinformation. The social media platform had labeled two tweets from Greene as 'misleading' in recent days. If she continues to share misinformation about Covid-19 through her Twitter account, Greene could be suspended from the platform permanently." MB: Is a 12-hour suspension much of a disincentive to keep up the bad work?
Eric Tucker, et al., of the AP: "A police official who has run large departments in Maryland and Virginia has been selected as chief of the U.S. Capitol Police in the aftermath of the Jan. 6 insurrection.... J. Thomas Manger, who most recently served for 15 years as chief in Montgomery County, Maryland, was picked for the position following an extensive search, according to four people...."
A Florida Man Gets 8 Months for Insurrection. Spencer Hsu of the Washington Post: "A federal judge on Monday handed down an eight-month prison term to the first person to be sentenced for a felony in the Jan. 6 Capitol breach, after attorneys argued whether the punishment would divide the country, deter future threats to lawmakers, or lead hundreds of other charged to face trial or plead guilty. Tampa crane operator Paul Allard Hodgkins, 38, pleaded guilty last month to one count of obstructing a joint session of Congress meeting to confirm the results of the 2020 president election. He was seen carrying a red-and-white 'Trump 2020' flag into the well of the abandoned Senate while others stood over the vacated vice president's chair. 'The symbolism of that act was unmistakable,' U.S. District Judge Randolph D. Moss said. 'He was staking a claim on the floor of the U.S. Senate not with an American flag, but declaring his loyalty to a single individual over the nation. In that act, he captured the threat to democracy that we all witnessed that day.'... U.S. prosecutors had called for 18-month prison term, citing the need to deter domestic terrorism." The CNN report is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
A Florida Man Pleads Guilty to Vandalizing Black Church. Olafimihan Oshin of the Hill: "A leader of the far-right group the Proud Boys has pleaded guilty to vandalizing a historically black church in Washington, D.C., in December, according to the Department of Justice (DOJ). In a Monday statement, authorities said Henry 'Enrique' Tarrio has pleaded guilty to one count of destruction of property and one count of attempted possession of a large-capacity ammunition feeding device.... Tarrio shared posts of himself and others burning the banner on his Parler account as well as admitting to the crime on social media comments and to multiple media outlets, the DOJ said. Tarrio, a 36-year-old Miami native, was arrested when he returned to Washington on Jan. 4. Authorities found two high-capacity firearm magazines, each with the Proud Boys insignia, in his possession at the time."
A Florida Man Is Getting Worse. Greg Sargent of the Washington Post: "It was only a matter of time until Donald Trump converted the debate over covid-19 vaccines into an occasion for his supporters to show their loyalty to him -- and even worse, to the 'big lie' that his 2020 loss was illegitimate. 'People are refusing to take the Vaccine because they don't trust his Administration,' the former president said in a statement Sunday, referring to President Biden. 'They don't trust the Election results, and they certainly don't trust the Fake News.'... Trump is telling his supporters that they are correct not to trust the federal government on vaccines, because this sentiment should flow naturally from their suspicion that the election was stolen from him.... What makes this worse is that other Republicans are playing a version of this game." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ~~~
~~~ Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "... [Chris] Wallace interviewed Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) and asked why Louisiana had seen such low vaccination rates. Cassidy blamed a lack of trust in government -- and President Biden. 'When you have partisan comments coming out of the White House regarding next Jim Crow laws, or people like Senator [Charles] Schumer and the White House not cooperating on a bipartisan bill -- ... that just doesn't work.'... This is nonsensical for a variety of reasons.... The idea that Tucker Carlson's incessant rhetoric misleadingly targeting vaccine safety and effectiveness is less of a factor than Biden's praise for the vaccines while advocating Democratic policy positions is bizarre. More important, for more than a year, beginning when he was president, Donald Trump has explicitly fostered distrust in government experts, insisting to his base that the pandemic was not a big deal.... After leading his base to a place where they shrugged at the virus, he ended up either having to change their minds or join them. Over the weekend, he joined them." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Paul Krugman of the New York Times: In "'The Mechanisms of Cult Production' ... New Zealand-based researcher Xavier Márquez compares the behavior of political elites across a wide range of dictatorial regimes, from Caligula's Rome to the Kim family's North Korea, and finds striking similarities. Despite vast differences in culture and material circumstances, elites in all such regimes engage in pretty much the same behavior, especially what the paper dubs 'loyalty signaling' and 'flattery inflation.'... In the context of dictatorial regimes, signaling typically involves making absurd claims on behalf of the Leader and his agenda, often including 'nauseating displays of loyalty.' If the claims are obvious nonsense and destructive in their effects, if making those claims humiliates the person who makes them, these are features, not bugs.... And once this kind of signaling becomes the norm, those trying to prove their loyalty have to go to ever greater extremes to differentiate themselves from the pack. Hence 'flattery inflation.'..." ~~~
~~~ Marie: No doubt the reason we're so gobsmacked by the seemingly irrational Trump phenomenon is that there's no real precedent in U.S. history. But clearly it goes far beyond, "He's a jerk, but he's our jerk."
Tierney Sneed of CNN: "The Justice Department is declining to prosecute former Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross for misrepresentations he made to Congress about the origins of the Trump administration's failed push to add a citizenship question to the 2020 census. The decision not to prosecute Ross was revealed in [a] letter made public Monday from Commerce Department Inspector General Peggy Gustafson to Democratic lawmakers. The Justice Department had declined the case in January 2020, according to a person briefed on the matter.... [Ross testified (twice) in a congressional hearing that] the administration was seeking to add the question to the decennial survey solely because of a DOJ request for the data, ostensibly to bolster Voting Rights Act enforcement. Internal records and other evidence surfaced in the litigation around the question -- as well as in a House Oversight Committee investigation -- showed that members of the Trump administration, including Ross, were plotting to add the question well before the DOJ formally submitted its request in December 2017.... The Supreme Court ultimately blocked the addition of the question and said that the Voting Rights Act enforcement rationale put forward by Ross was "contrived." Emphasis added. ~~~
~~~ Rachel Maddow pointed out that Wilbur there was the fifth Trump Cabinet secretary that inspectors general had referred to the DOJ for possible criminal charges. He was also the fifth that Trump's DOJ declined to prosecute. Funny how that works.
Damian Carrington of the Guardian: "The G20 countries have provided more than $3.3tn (£2.4tn) in subsidies for fossil fuels since the Paris climate agreement was sealed in 2015, a report shows, despite many committing to tackle the crisis. This backing for coal, oil and gas is 'reckless' in the face of the escalating climate emergency, according to the report's authors, and urgent action is needed to phase out the support. The $3.3tn could have built solar plants equivalent to three times the US electricity grid, the report says. The G20 countries account for nearly three-quarters of the global carbon emissions that drive global heating.... Australia increased its fossil fuel subsidies by 48% over the period, Canada's support rose by 40% and that from the US by 37%.... The biggest subsidies came from China, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India, which together accounted for about half of all the subsidies.... In June, more than 500 organisations called on US policymakers to eliminate fossil fuel subsidies from the US tax code."
The Audacity of White Hegemony. Rukmini Callimachi of the New York Times: "The recent discoveries of unmarked graves at government-run schools for Indigenous children in Canada -- 215 graves in British Columbia, 750 more in Saskatchewan -- surfaced like a long-forgotten nightmare. But for many Indigenous people in Canada and the United States, the nightmare was never forgotten. Instead the discoveries are a reminder of how many living Native Americans were products of an experiment in forcibly removing children from their families and culture.... In the century and a half that the U.S. government ran boarding schools for Native Americans, hundreds of thousands of children were housed and educated in a network of institutions, created to 'civilize the savage.' By the 1920s, one group estimates, nearly 83 percent of Native American school-age children were attending such schools."
Some Capitalists Really Are Awesome. Eric Nagourney of the New York Times: "Ben & Jerry's, the ice cream purveyor famous for taking stands on hot-button social issues, announced Monday that it was ending sales in the Israeli-occupied territories -- plunging itself into one of the most contentious debates on the international stage. 'We believe it is inconsistent with our values for Ben & Jerry's ice cream to be sold in the Occupied Palestinian Territory,' it said in a statement." An NPR story is here.
The Pandemic, Ctd.
The New York Times' live updates of Covid-19 developments Monday are here: "In what appeared to be the first ruling upholding a coronavirus vaccine mandate by a university, a federal judge affirmed on Monday that Indiana University could require that its students be vaccinated against the virus." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Eugene Scott & Rachel Lerman of the Washington Post: "President Biden on Monday balanced his earlier, blunt criticism of Facebook by blaming bad actors on the website for spreading dangerous misinformation about the coronavirus and vaccines, but he still called on the social media platform to be more aggressive in combating the problem. The president said he hopes that 'instead of taking it personally,' Facebook spends more energy focusing on 'the outrageous misinformation' being spread about vaccines on the popular social network. Biden put Facebook on the defense last week after accusing it of 'killing people' by allowing the spread of misinformation about coronavirus vaccines."
Charlie Savage & Zolan Kanno-Youngs of the New York Times: "The Biden administration legal team has decided that thousands of federal convicts who were released to home confinement to reduce the risk of spreading Covid-19 will be required by law to return to prison a month after the official state of emergency for the pandemic ends, according to officials. The administration has come under pressure from criminal justice reform activists and some lawmakers to revoke a Trump-era memo by the Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel, which said inmates whose sentences lasted beyond the 'pandemic emergency period' would have to go back to prison. But the Biden legal team has concluded that the memo correctly interpreted the law, which applies to about 4,000 nonviolent inmates, according to officials who spoke on condition of anonymity about sensitive internal deliberations. Several officials characterized the decision as an assessment of the best interpretation of the law, not a matter of policy preference."
Taylor Telford of the Washington Post: "Global stock markets swooned Monday, with the Dow slumping more than 900 points in afternoon trading, as investors grow increasingly anxious about a delta-led resurgence in
~~~ New Lede: "Global stock markets swooned Monday, with the Dow slumping more than 700 points, as investors grow increasingly anxious about a delta-led resurgence in coronavirus cases and its potential to derail the economic recovery. Oil prices also fell sharply."
Oliver Darcy of CNN: "Tucker Carlson has called the idea of vaccine passports the medical equivalent of 'Jim Crow' laws. And other Fox News personalities have spent months both trafficking in anti-vaccine rhetoric and assailing the concept of showing proof of vaccination status. But Fox Corporation, the right-wing talk channel's parent company, has quietly implemented the concept of a vaccine passport as workers slowly return back to the company's offices. Fox employees, including those who work at Fox News, received an email ... from the company's Human Resources department in early June that said Fox had 'developed a secure, voluntary way for employees to self-attest their vaccination status.' The system allows for employees to self-report to Fox the dates their shots were administered and which vaccines were used." ~~~
~~~ Marie: Really? Relying on the honor system to police Fox employees is worse than relying on a kid's "dog ate my homework" testimony. At least there's an outside possibility the dog did chew up the book report.
Australia. Rachel Pannett & Bryan Pietsch of the Washington Post: "Australia deported a British conservative commentator after she boasted on social media about appearing naked and maskless in hotel quarantine, in breach of the country's strict rules, authorities said Monday. Katie Hopkins, a 46-year-old media personality, was fined 1,000 Australian dollars (about $740) and escorted by police to the Sydney airport, where she boarded an afternoon flight bound for Britain after her visa was canceled by the government. Her efforts to flout Australia's strict quarantine regime struck a raw nerve in a country where some 11 million residents are in lockdown to curb outbreaks of the delta variant of the coronavirus. Tens of thousands of citizens are stranded abroad, because authorities have capped the number of international arrivals to relieve pressure on the hotel quarantine system, which requires anyone who enters the country to spend two weeks in a hotel at their own expense."
Canada. Amanda Coletta of the Washington Post: "Canada on Monday said it would begin to ease pandemic restrictions at the U.S.-Canada border next month, allowing U.S. citizens and permanent residents in the United States who are fully vaccinated with Canadian-authorized vaccines to enter for nonessential travel without quarantining. The decision, which takes effect on Aug. 9, follows months of criticism from U.S. lawmakers across the political spectrum, business groups and some travelers over what they said was an overly cautious approach to lifting curbs that have split families, battered the tourism sector and upended life in close-knit border communities. To be eligible for entry, fully vaccinated U.S. citizens and permanent residents must present a negative covid-19 molecular test taken within 72 hours of flight departure or arrival at a land crossing. They will also be required to upload proof that they have received a full series of an authorized coronavirus vaccine atleast 14 days before departure to a Canadian government app." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Beyond the Beltway
Oregon Gubernatorial Race. Felicia Sonmez of the Washington Post: "New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof is considering a Democratic bid for Oregon governor, saying in a statement Monday that friends have been urging him to run and that his home state needs 'someone with leadership and vision.'The Times confirmed Monday that in keeping with the newspaper's policies, Kristof is taking a leave of absence as he decides whether to run for office. If he pursues a bid, the Pulitzer-winning columnist, author and former foreign correspondent would become one of the most well-known media figures in recent memory to make a run for political office."
Way Beyond
Haiti. Catherine Porter of the New York Times: "With foreign powers weighing in, Haitian officials announced a new prime minister on Monday, in an attempt to resolve a caustic leadership struggle in the wake of President Jovenel Moïse's assassination. Claude Joseph, the prime minister who took control of Haiti's government immediately after the killing, is stepping down in favor of Ariel Henry, a neurosurgeon who had been appointed to the position by the president before he was killed, the elections minister said Monday.... The political maneuvering by Haitian officials and international power brokers was met with anger by Haitian activists and democracy advocates, who said it did not consider what the people wanted." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Peru. Mitra Taj & Julie Turkewitz of the New York Times: "... on Monday night, nearly a month since the second round of the presidential election, officials declared Pedro Castillo, 51, the next president of Peru. In a very close vote, he defeated Keiko Fujimori, the daughter of a right-wing former president and herself a towering symbol of the Peruvian elite. Mr. Castillo's victory, however narrow the margin, is the clearest repudiation of the country's establishment in 30 years. It was also the third straight loss for Ms. Fujimori. Mr. Castillo, a socialist, will become Peru's first left-wing president in more than a generation, and its first to have lived most of his life as a 'campesino' -- or peasant -- in a poor Andean region." A BBC News story is here.
News Lede
New York Times: "The Bootleg Fire in Southern Oregon, spurred by months of drought and last month's blistering heat wave, is the largest wildfire so far this year in the United States, having already burned more than 340,000 acres, or 530 square miles, of forest and grasslands. And at a time when climate change is causing wildfires to be larger and more intense, it's also one of the most extreme, so big and hot that it's affecting winds and otherwise disrupting the atmosphere.... Marcus Kauffman, a spokesman for the state forestry department ... [said,] 'Normally the weather predicts what the fire will do. In this case, the fire is predicting what the weather will do.'"
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