The Commentariat -- January 12, 2020
Afternoon Update:
Thomas Gibbons-Neff of the New York Times: "Defense Secretary Mark T. Esper said on Sunday that he never saw any specific piece of evidence that Iran was planning an attack on four American embassies, as President Trump had claimed last week as a justification for the strike on an Iranian general that sent the United States and Iran to the brink of war. 'I didn't see one with regard to four embassies,' Mr. Esper said on CBS's 'Face the Nation.' But he added: 'I share the president's view that probably -- my expectation was they were going to go after our embassies....' The muddled message on Sunday by Mr. Esper and other administration officials only added to the public debate regarding the Jan. 3 strike that killed Iran's most important general, Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani, and whether there was appropriate justification for the killing. The administration has offered shifting justifications for the strike.... Appearing on 'Fox News Sunday,' Robert O'Brien, the national security adviser, had also played down Mr. Trump's claim of specific, imminent threats to four American embassies in the region. 'Look, it's always difficult, even with the exquisite intelligence that we have, to know exactly what the targets are,' Mr. O'Brien said. 'We knew there were threats to American facilities, now whether they were bases, embassies -- you know it's always hard until the attack happens." The CBS News story is here. ~~~
~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: This is the Secretary of Defense confirming on national TV that the POTUS* & Secretary of State lied about the reasons for setting the U.S. on a war footing. Oh, Nancy, could you bring us another Article of Impeachment, please.
David Stern & Isabelle Khurshudyan of the Washington Post: "Within hours of Iran's stunning admission Saturday that its missile mistakenly shot down a Ukrainian passenger plane, Ukraine ... put out photos, taken a day earlier, showing wreckage riddled with small holes, suggesting damage from shrapnel. Well before Iran admitted shooting down Ukrainian International Airlines Flight 752 outside Tehran on Wednesday, Ukraine realized the plane had been destroyed by a missile. But the country's leaders tread a careful diplomatic path.... Soon after the plane went down..., U.S. officials and the leaders of Canada and Britain told the world they believed the plane was likely shot down by Iran. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky asked them to share their information with him, but held off announcing any of Ukraine's conclusions -- a strategic decision.... [Ukrainian] officials were careful to avoid sharp criticism of Iran during this time to ensure its cooperation in the probe. Zelensky, caught between the United States and Iran after a U.S. drone strike killed Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani..., had the difficult task of securing the 'cooperation of Western backers and Iran without being drawn into either side's narrative of the Iran-U. S. conflict,' said Katharine Quinn-Judge, a Kyiv-based analyst for International Crisis Group." ~~~
~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: It's kind of amazing that a year ago, Volodymyr Zelensky was a teevee comic. Right now he looks like about the smartest politician on the world stage. Let's hope he stays honest.
Kendall Karson of ABC News: "... a majority of Americans said they disapprove of President Trump's handling of the situation with Iran and feel less safe, according to a new ABC News/Ipsos poll.... The poll showed a majority of Independents, 57%, and all U.S. adults, 56%, disapproving of Trump's handling of the situation with Iran, with 43% of both Independents and U.S. adults approving."
"Impeached for Life." Elise Viebeck & Juliet Eilperin of the Washington Post: "House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) said Sunday that President Trump is 'impeached for life' regardless of 'any gamesmanship' by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), whom she accused of orchestrating a 'coverup' of Trump's actions as the Senate waits for the House to transmit the articles of impeachment. Challenging McConnell to hold a serious trial that includes testimony from witnesses, Pelosi did not rule out the possibility that the House would subpoena former national security adviser John Bolton if the Senate chooses not to. She repeatedly chastised McConnell for signaling that he is not interested in fully weighing the House's charges." Politico has the story here.
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Anton Troianovski, et al., of the New York Times: "Iran's stunning admission that its forces errantly downed a Ukrainian jetliner -- reversing three days of denial -- did little to quell growing fury inside the country and beyond on Saturday as the deadly tragedy turned into a volatile political crisis for Tehran's leaders and overshadowed their struggle with the United States. Ukrainian officials criticized Iran's conduct, suggesting that the Iranians would not have admitted responsibility if investigators from Ukraine had not found evidence of a missile strike in the wreckage of the crash, which killed all 176 people aboard. Protests erupted in Tehran and other Iranian cities as dumbfounded citizens found a new reason to mistrust Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's supreme leader, and other officials. Protest videos even showed some shouting 'Khamenei is a murderer!' and anti-riot police tear-gassing violent demonstrators." ~~~
~~~ Marty Johnson of the Hill: "President Trump tweeted a message in support of Iranian protesters in Farsi Saturday, as demonstrators took to the streets to speak out against the government following the country's admission that it inadvertently shot down a Kyiv-bound commercial plane.... 'To the brave and suffering Iranian people: I have stood with you since the beginning of my presidency and my government will continue to stand with you,' Trump's said. 'We are following your protests closely,' he added. 'Your courage is inspiring.'" ~~~
~~~ Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: It would be extraordinary if Trump bumbled his way into regime change in Iran -- and with a little help from Ukraine. ~~~
~~~ Carla Herreria of the Huffington Post: "Iranian officials arrested and briefly detained Robert Macaire, the British ambassador to Iran, according to the United Kingdom's foreign secretary. Macaire was arrested amid a protest outside of a university in Tehran and detained for more than an hour. He was eventually released, the Iran-based Tasnim News Agency reported. 'The arrest of our Ambassador in Tehran without grounds or explanation is a flagrant violation of international law,' British Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab said in a statement Saturday.... The U.S. State Department also denounced the arrest and called on the Iranian regime to formally apologize in its own statement Saturday."
** Peter Baker, et al., of the New York Times: "The operation that took out General [Qassem] Suleimani, the commander of the Quds Force of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps, propelled the United States to the precipice of war with Iran and plunged the world into seven days of roiling uncertainty. The story of those seven days, and the secret planning in the months preceding them, ranks as the most perilous chapter so far in President Trump's three years in office after his decision to launch an audacious strike on Iran, and his attempt through allies and a back channel to keep the ensuing crisis from mushrooming out of control. The president's decision to ratchet up decades of simmering conflict with Iran set off an extraordinary worldwide drama, much of which played out behind the scenes." ~~~
~~~ Paul Waldman & Greg Sargent of the Washington Post: "In an interview, Rep. Eliot L. Engel (D-N.Y.), the chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, told us there's 'no doubt' in his mind that the assassination of [Qassem] Soleimani and the effort to target [Abdul Reza] Shahlai ... -- a financier and key commander of Iran's elite Quds Force who has been active in Yemen ... -- are part of a wider effort that's mostly being concealed from Congress. 'The more you hear, the more you realize that you've been fed a bunch of untruths,' Engel told us. 'Was Shahlai an imminent threat? I think not.' Rep. Tom Malinowski (D-N.J.), a member of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, added that this news badly complicates the rationale offered for the Soleimani killing.... 'If the objective was to weaken the Quds Force irrespective of any intelligence about imminent attacks on Americans, then where does that end?' Malinowski said. 'And is it over?'... Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has been invited to testify next week to the Foreign Affairs Committee. But Engel told us that Pompeo has not said whether he'll appear. 'Right now it looks like he's not coming,' Engel told us. 'We haven't heard from him.'"
Ryan Nobles of CNN: "Republican Sen. Mike Lee of Utah has agreed to co-sponsor Sen. Bernie Sanders' legislation that would freeze funding for any military action in Iran without express approval from Congress. Sanders ... introduced the bill shortly after the Trump administration held a classified briefing in which advisers outlined the case for their military strike last week that killed Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani. Sanders was sharply critical of the briefing, saying afterward that the administration's briefers gave no proof of any imminent attack by Iran against US targets." ~~~
~~~ MEANWHILE. Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Senate and House Democrats have different strategies over how to limit President Trump's power to take military action against Iran. Senate Democrats are debating among themselves whether to take up a concurrent resolution passed by the House on Thursday limiting Trump's war powers, or to stick with a proposal sponsored by Sens. Tim Kaine (D-Va.) and Dick Durbin (D-Ill.). As a concurrent resolution, the House measure doesn't require Trump's signature. But it's not clear whether it would actually tie Trump's hands. The Supreme Court may ultimately have to decide if it has the binding force of law. The Senate bill would have the force of law, and it would be significant if approved by the GOP-controlled chamber. But it does require Trump's signature and has almost no chance of becoming law since it would be vetoed...."
Barbie Nadeau of the Daily Beast: "... Donald Trump concocted a blatant lie in a tweet Saturday morning, accusing Democrats of 'defending the life of Qassem Soleimani' who he called 'one of the worst terrorists in history.' There is no evidence that any Democrats have made such a defense. After Trump ally Rep. Doug Collins (R-GA) made a similar assertion earlier this week, he apologized soon thereafter.... Earlier in the week, Nikki Haley, Trump's former Ambassador to the United Nations, claimed on Fox News that Democrats were 'mourning' the loss of the Iranian general. When pressed on what she meant, she doubled down."
Colby Itkowitz of the Washington Post: "... President Trump suggested 'Nancy Pelosi will go down as the absolute worst Speaker of the House in U.S. History!' Trump's morning tweet is the third time in 24 hours the president has made this prediction about the California Democrat's legacy, placing the first woman in the role below the 53 ... men to have served as speaker since 1789. 'She is obsessed with impeachment, she has done nothing. She is going to go down as one of the worst Speakers in the history of our country,' Trump said Friday night during an interview with Fox News's Laura Ingraham. 'And she's become a crazed lunatic. But she will go down as -- I think maybe the worst speaker in the history of our country.' But some Twitter users were quick to point out the track record of other past speakers, namely [Dennis] Hastert (R-Ill.), the longest -running Republican speaker..., and an admitted sex offender who molested teenage boys he had coached in high school wrestling. Hastert was convicted of bank fraud in a scheme to buy the silence of his victims.... Several others mentioned former speaker Newt Gingrich (R-Ga.), who resigned in part due to an extramarital affair he was having with a younger staffer at the same time he was impeaching President Bill Clinton for lying about his affair with an intern. Some nominated recent speakers John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) and Paul D. Ryan (R-Wis.), both of whom left Congress rather than lead the divided Republicans." ~~~
~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: Another example of perfect Trumpian projection: Trump himself is rated by historians & political scientists as the worst or one of the worst presidents in U.S. history. And as for who is "obsessed with impeachment," well ...
Thirteen Previous Press Secretaries and WH Officials, in a CNN opinion piece: "All of us have experienced the challenges of a regular press briefing.... But day after day, we persisted.... public has a right to know what its government is doing, and the government has a duty to explain what it is doing.... In times of military conflict and international crisis, these briefings take on even more importance. Americans want to know the latest developments and seek the truth. On social media, wild rumors can fly, and our adversaries can manipulate disinformation to their advantage.... For that reason, among many, the country needs trusted sources of information delivered on a timely and regular schedule.... We respectfully urge the resumption of regular press briefings across our government, especially in the places where Americans want the truth, our allies in the world want information, and where all of us, hopefully, want to see American values reflected." --s
Jack Morse of Mashable: "The president's daughter and failed businesswoman was at the annual technology convention in Las Vegas, Nevada [last week] to give a talk on the future of work.... According to [Ivanka] Trump, the workers of tomorrow will be graced with an 'interoperable learning record' which will allow them to bring a list of all their skills with them wherever they go. That's right, Trump's big idea for the American worker is some kind of standardized LinkedIn. But, wait, there's more! This 'résumé of the future,' as Trump at one point referred to it, will do more than just list your job skills -- it was also send you push notifications.... [T]here's no denying Trump's boldness in just charging right ahead and pretending professional social networks and digital résumés don't already exist. 'We need to harness technology and data to enable people to have their information in their iPhone,' insisted Trump." --s
David Shortell & Evan Perez of CNN: "More than a dozen Saudi servicemen training at US military installations will be expelled from the United States after a review that followed the deadly shooting last month at a Naval Air Station in Pensacola, Florida, multiple sources told CNN. The Saudis are not accused of aiding the 21-year-old Saudi Air Force second lieutenant who killed three American sailors in the December shooting, two sources said, but some are said to have connections to extremist movements, according to a person familiar with the situation. A number are also accused of possessing child pornography, according to a defense official and the person familiar with the situation."
Alexander Kaufman & Chris D'Angelo of Mother Jones: "The Trump administration on Thursday unveiled plans to gut one of America's most important environmental laws -- a move experts say is as much of a handout to polluting industries as it is a slap in the face to science and local communities. The proposed rules would change how the federal government implements the National Environmental Policy Act, a 50-year-old law that protects air, water and land by requiring federal agencies to conduct detailed environmental assessments of major infrastructure projects. Agencies would no longer be required to consider climate change when evaluating the environmental effects of pipelines, power plants, oil and gas drilling, airports, highways and other development." --s
DOJ Issues Barefoot-and-Pregnant Opinion. Veronica Stracqualursi of CNN (January 8): "The Justice Department's Office of Legal Counsel is arguing that the deadline to ratify the Equal Rights Amendment has expired, a blow to supporters' push to enshrine the long-sought effort. 'We conclude that Congress had the constitutional authority to impose a deadline on the ratification of the ERA and, because that deadline has expired, the ERA Resolution is no longer pending before the States,' the OLC said in an opinion released Wednesday. The opinion, issued in response to a lawsuit filed by three conservative-leaning states, effectively prevents the archivist of the United States, who administers the ratification process, from verifying that the amendment is valid and part of the Constitution after the necessary number of states approve it. But his authority doesn't prevent states from acting on their own to ratify the amendment -- or preclude them from legally challenging the Justice Department's opinion in court.... The OLC also says that Congress cannot revive a proposed amendment after it has exceeded its deadline for ratification, suggesting instead that Congress restart the ratification process from scratch. The ERA Coalition, which supports the amendment, said it 'strongly disagrees with the OLC's opinion that the time limit cannot be removed' and intends to pursue it regardless." ~~~
~~~ Mrs. McCrabbie: P.D. Pepe mentioned this in yesterday's Comments, and it's a story I missed timely. Bill Barr and the boys really don't like women, do they?
Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "The Trump administration and a coalition of conservative states that have been challenging the Affordable Care Act said Friday that ... the [Supreme Court] should not grant a motion by the House of Representatives and Democratic-led states to expedite review of a decision by a panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit last month. The panel struck down the law's mandate that individuals buy health insurance but sent back to a lower court the question of whether the rest of the statute can stand without it." ~~~
~~~ Susannah Luthi of Politico: "The Trump administration and Republican-led states are urging the Supreme Court to swat away Democrats' request to immediately review a lawsuit threatening Obamacare, which would ensure the politically fraught case doesn't get resolved until after November's election."
Bob Brigham of RawStory: "Misogynistic men who identify as part of the 'Involuntary Celibate' movement are domestic terrorism threats, according to a new report. The Texas Department of Public Safety included the warning in their 2020, 'Texas Domestic Terrorism Threat Assessment' (PDF).... 'What begins as a personal grievance due to perceived rejection by women may morph into allegiance to, and attempts to further, an Incel Rebellion. The result has thrust the Incel movement into the realm of domestic terrorism,' the report explained." --s
Way Beyond the Beltway
U.K. Caroline Davies of the Guardian: "The Queen has summoned senior royals to an emergency summit at her Sandringham estate in Norfolk on Monday to discuss the future of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex. The meeting, to be attended by the Queen, Prince of Wales, Duke of Cambridge and Duke of Sussex, will be the first time the four have met since the Sussex crisis exploded on Wednesday.... The meeting will be an opportunity for them to discuss proposals, drawn up after a series of consultations between palace officials and representatives of the UK and Canadian governments over how Meghan and Harry can achieve their aim of carving out new 'progressive' roles as hybrid royals. The country's most senior civil servant, cabinet secretary Sir Mark Sedwill, was reportedly one of the senior figures around the negotiating table, along with senior aides from Buckingham Palace, Clarence House and Kensington Palace." ~~~
~~~ Uneasy Lies the Head that Wears a Tiara. Maureen Dowd: "Given the state of the world and the implosion of the British Empire -- with Scots once more contemplating an off ramp, Irish unity in play, Australia on fire and Boris Johnson tricking the queen into suspending Parliament in a Brexit ploy -- it is hard to feel sorry for the Duchess of Sussex complaining that her diamonds are heavy.... I think Meghan Markle should have wielded her wokeness where it is most needed -- in Buckingham Palace. She could have channeled the Obamas, who did a magnificent job of rising above racist taunts and working within the institution to imprint a new image of racial possibility in America. Markle had already successfully brought a refreshing dose of semi-radical chic to the royal family.... What's the rush to give up real influence to be an Instagram influencer? Besides, who unfollows their own grandmother?"