The Commentariat -- August 9, 2018

I'm having serious technical difficulties. I'm asking safari & Akhilleus not to do any updates till I get this problem fixed. So far, none of the techies knows how to fix it. Thanks for your patience. If anyone has been logging in to comment, please don't do so. I'm working with a real mess here, & it could blow up at any minute. So far, there doesn't seem to be any problem making comments from the public/logged-out platform. If you're experiencing any unusual troubles with accessing the site or commenting, please e-mail me at constantweader@gmail.com & let me know what's going on. Thanks.

If the site totally dies, which is a looming possibility, I'll put up something on my Twitter account as to what might happen next. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie

Afternoon Update:

AP: "Puerto Rico is now estimating that Hurricane Maria killed more than 1,400 people, far more than the official death toll of 64, in a report to Congress seeking billions to help the island recover from the devastating storm.... In [the report], the territory's government said that the additional deaths resulted from the effects of a storm that led to a 'cascading failures' in infrastructure across the island of 3.3 million people."

Hee Haw! Goat Fleeces the Sheeples. Pat Ralph of Business Insider: "... Donald Trump is able to pay tens of thousands of dollars less in property taxes on his New Jersey golf courses because of a goat herd, according to The Wall Street Journal. Citing public records, The Journal reported in 2016 that Trump had been able to save thousands of dollars in property taxes on his two properties in Bedminster -- where he is this week for a 'working vacation' -- and Colts Neck. Because the properties have a goat herd, as well as hay farming and woodcutting, New Jersey law permits them to receive a farmland tax break.... The Journal estimated that Trump paid less than $1,000 a year in property taxes on land that would typically require roughly $80,000." Thanks to Akhilleus for the link.

Nancy Cook of Politico: "Hope Hicks had no intention of traveling on Air Force One when she arrived at ... Donald Trump's Bedminster, New Jersey, golf club to hang out with White House friends including Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump. But ... once Hicks was back on the president's turf, she got sucked in, with a handful of staffers successfully prodding her to join them on Saturday's trip to Ohio for a campaign-style rally. Hicks' surprise appearance at the airport prompted one former campaign official to joke that she was returning for 'Season Two' of the Trump reality show." Mrs. McC: AND this has nuh-THING to do with the fact that Trump was simultaneously confess-tweeting about the "real reason" for that Trump Tower meeting -- you know, the one where Hicks helped him write out that phony "adoption reason" for the meeting conspiracy-planning session. Just another a-mazing coincidence.

Sam Baker of Axios: "One Australian drug company -- with only one (failed) product in one (failed) clinical trial -- just keeps tripping up current and former House Republicans.... Federal prosecutors in New York indicted Rep. Chris Collins yesterday on charges of insider trading, stemming from the sale of shares in a company called Innate Immunotherapeutics. It's the same company you may remember from Tom Price's confirmation as Health and Human Services secretary. He tripled his investment when divesting of the stock to become secretary, according to the Wall Street Journal. Collins had been an investor in the company for 15 years, the WSJ reports, and was a member of its board. Price bought almost 500,000 shares in the company, most of them in 2016, at a discounted rate only offered to a few Americans. At least four other GOP lawmakers also bought shares of Innate a few months later, according to the watchdog group CREW. Of those six lawmakers, four -- Collins, Price, and Reps. Billy Long and Markwayne Mullin -- sat on committees with direct health care jurisdiction."

So Far Things Not Going Well for White Supremacist Candidate. Senate Race. Richmond (Virginia) Times-Dispatch: "Sen. Tim Kaine, D-Va., led GOP rival Corey Stewart by 23 percentage points in a July poll of likely voters released Wednesday. Kaine had 49 percent to 26 percent for Stewart, chairman of the Prince William Board of County Supervisors, with 5 percent for Libertarian Matt Waters and 20 percent undecided, according to the survey...."

Annals of "Journalism," Ha Ha Ha. Brian Fung & Tony Romm of the Washington Post: "Tribune Media said Thursday that it would terminate its proposed merger with Sinclair Broadcast Group, while announcing a $1 billion lawsuit against the conservative television giant on grounds that it engaged in 'misconduct' and precluded the U.S. government from approving the deal. In the lawsuit, Tribune accused Sinclair of engaging in 'belligerent and unnecessarily protracted negotiations' with the FCC as well as the Justice Department, which had reviewed the merger for its effects on competition. By failing to divest television stations as regulators recommended, Tribune said Sinclair had 'breached' the companies' merger agreement, which required them to make their best efforts to secure federal approval.... The merger began to stumble last month after Federal communications Commission Chairman Ajit Pai highlighted 'serious concerns' about the deal.... The FCC raised questions about Sinclair's plan to sell some key stations in order to adhere to federal media ownership laws, and voted to send the matter to an administrative law judge, which is often interpreted as a signal a transaction may be blocked."

*****

Happy 44th Anniversary of Richard Nixon's Last Day in Office.

Frank Rich: "[Trump] doesn't mind making himself vulnerable to punishment under the law because he doesn't believe the law is legitimate or as powerful as he is. To him, jurisprudence is just another adversary to be bullied and mowed down like Little Marco or Crooked Hillary. That's why the possibility of implicating himself in an obstruction case doesn't really concern him. His plan is to destroy the rule of law before any case gets far enough to put him in legal jeopardy. His goal is not to prove his innocence in a court of law but to discredit the Justice Department, the FBI, the intelligence agencies, and, of course, the special counsel before he ever gets to court. On a parallel track he's out to destroy the news media that report on his flagrant lawlessness.... After Nixon's demise -- brought about by his own vehicle for self-incrimination, the White House tapes -- the consensus had it that the system worked. This time the system is being burned down before our eyes by its own chief executive."

Jonathan Chait: "The entire Trump era has been a festering pit of barely disguised ongoing corruption. But the whole sordid era has not had a 24-hour period quite like the orgy of criminality which we have just experienced. The events of the last day alone include: (1) The trial of Paul Manafort, which has featured the accusation that President Trump's campaign manager had embezzled funds, failed to report income, and falsified documents.... (2) Yesterday, Forbes reported that Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross may have stolen $120 million from his partners and customers.... (3) Also yesterday, ProPublica reported that the Department of Veterans Affairs is being effectively run by three Trump cronies, none of whom have any official government title or public accountability. The three, reports the story, have 'used their influence in ways that could benefit their private interests.' (4) And then, this morning, Representative Chris Collins was arrested for insider trading."

Big Surprise. Michael Schmidt & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "President Trump's lawyers rejected the special counsel's latest terms for an interview in the Russia investigation, countering on Wednesday with an offer that suggested a narrow path for answering questions, people familiar with the matter said.... The letter marked the latest back and forth in the eight months of negotiations between Mr. Trump's lawyers and ... Robert S. Mueller III. Last week, Mr. Mueller proposed a slightly altered format to the expansive interview he wants to conduct with the president. Mr. Trump's lawyers did not reject an interview outright.... However, [a] person said that Mr. Trump's lawyers did not want him answering questions about whether he obstructed justice." (Also linked yesterday.);

Ken Vogel & Noah Weiland of the New York Times: "Lawyers for Paul Manafort attacked the government's star witness as a thief, serial adulterer and possible forger as part of an aggressive effort to undercut prosecutors on Wednesday at his trial. The defense lawyers also proposed novel situations under which their client's tax avoidance may have been less extreme than prosecutors asserted. Mr. Manafort ... failed to disclose and pay taxes on nearly $16.5 million in income, according to an I.R.S. revenue agent. But his lawyers suggested that the actual amount of unreported income could have been smaller, partly because his companies might have been able to claim an 'embezzlement deduction' on the money that his longtime deputy, Rick Gates, has acknowledged stealing through falsified expense reports."

... Washington Post reporters livebloggied the Manafort trial Wednesday. (Also linked yesterday.) ...

... Josh Gerstein & Darren Samuelsohn of Politico: "... Donald Trump says that the criminal trial of his former campaign aide, Paul Manafort, has nothing to do with him. But jurors in a Virginia courtroom heard his name repeatedly on Tuesday. Trump's name, his 2016 campaign and his inauguration came up several times during the trial's sixth day, the most by far in the bank- and tax-fraud case brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. While the case does not directly involve the president, on Tuesday Trump became an unmistakable presence in the background. Documents and testimony spelled out Manafort's myriad ties to Trump and his 2016 White House run. They showed that Manafort sought to ease his financial pressures by trading on his influence in Trump's orbit. His longtime deputy, Rick Gates, said it was 'possible' he had stolen money from Trump's inauguration committee. And Gates described the roles that he and Manafort had played in Trump's winning campaign. The court even learned that Manafort's ties to Trump extend well beyond the 2016 campaign. A 2013 document entered into evidence showed that Manafort planned to share his New York Yankee season tickets with [Trump]...." (Also linked yesterday.)...

... Juan Cole: "Paul Manafort, Donald Trump's campaign manager, is being tried for money laundering, keeping some 15 illegal foreign accounts, and cheating the government out of the taxes he rightfully owed, among a host of other crimes.... His lobbying firm in the 1990s and after represented the most sordid gallery of torturers and villains ever assembled in one client list. There was no strong man so idious that Manafort would not take his money and make phone calls to his old buddies on his behalf.... Manafort is not a criminal in the sense of a deviant. He is all too normal in the US political system. He is how the system works. White collar criminals like Manafort and Trump are no longer even investigated or prosecuted. Manafort had been getting away with it for decades because he was so well connected.... But make no mistake about it. The indictment of Manafort is an indictment of America, a death knoll for US democracy. Manafort is who we have become." --safari (Also linked yesterday.)

Emily Cochrane and Sharon LaFraniere of the New York Times profile Judge T.S. Ellis's courtroom manner. ...

... Darren Samuelsohn & Josh Gerstein also highlight Ellis's courtroom behavior. Here's an exemplary excerpt: "On Wednesday, Ellis was at it again, dressing down prosecutors after learning that an IRS agent they called to the stand as an expert witness had been in the courtroom for the entire trial.... Mueller's prosecutors protested that the judge had granted them an exception, but the judge ... [said,] 'I don't care what the transcript says, maybe I made a mistake.... When I exclude witnesses I mean everybody, unless I make a special exception.'" Mrs. McC: Huh??? Do as I think I said & not as I say? That's bordering on batshit.

She's Got Tapes! Lachlan Markay, et al., of the Daily Beast: "Multiple sources with direct knowledge of the situation tell The Daily Beast that Omarosa Manigault-Newman, the infamous former Apprentice star who followed Trump to the White House, secretly recorded conversations with the president -- conversations she has since leveraged while shopping her forthcoming 'tell-all' book, bluntly titled UNHINGED. For months, it has been rumored that Manigault had clandestinely recorded on her smartphone 'tapes' of unspecified private discussions she had in the West Wing. Audio actually does exist, and even stars Manigault's former boss. One person confirmed to The Daily Beast they had heard at least one of her recordings featuring President Trump. Multiple sources familiar with the so-called 'Omarosa tapes' described the recorded conversations between Trump and Manigault as anodyne, everyday chatter, but said they did appear to feature Trump's voice, either over the phone or in-person. The mere existence of such recordings represent a dramatic betrayal of trust by a one-time Trump confidant who has since abandoned years of professed loyalty to the president and has apparently decided to profit off her years of closeness to Trump." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Oh, shame on Omarosa. Nobody else would profit off his year's of closeness to Trump. Nor would Trump use his day job for personal gain in any way.

 

Trade deficit -- $52 billion reduction in the trade deficit for the quarter.... I think nobody would have thought that would be possible so quickly. $52 billion reduction in the trade deficit for the quarter. -- Donald Trump, July 30, in one of the (at least) five times he has made the claim in recent days

We doubt the president himself is digging into the details of the GDP report, so either he is being misled by his staff or misunderstood something in a briefing. He may be very disappointed when the third-quarter numbers are released, given that the year is already on track to have the largest trade deficit in a decade. We generally are reluctant to give Four Pinocchios for a factoid based on government data. But the president is presenting this in such a misleading manner that we have little choice. In every instance, the president says the trade deficit fell by $52 billion from the first to the second quarter, calling it one of the 'biggest wins' in the GDP report. He may be convinced of it, but that's simply not true. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post

My guess: Trump just made up the number. It's a very authentic-sounding number, doncha think? Anyway, it sure makes his unnecessary & counterproductive trade war look very smart. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie

Juan Cole: "Europe, Russia, China defy Trump on Iran Sanctions" --safari (Also linked yesterday.)

Jim Tankersley of the New York Times: "A new 20 percent tax break included in last year's $1.5 trillion tax overhaul could wind up benefiting President Trump's real estate empire given how the Treasury Department plans to implement the provision, several tax experts said. On Wednesday, the Treasury Department issued a sprawling regulation outlining the types of companies and professionals eligible to qualify as 'pass-through' entities and get the 20 percent tax deduction. The widely anticipated rule has huge implications for law firms, real estate trusts, family farms and other companies that are structured so their profits are taxed as individual income for their owners."

** Shadow Government. Isaac Arsndorf of ProPublica: "Bruce Moskowitz ... is one-third of an informal council that is exerting sweeping influence on the VA from Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump's private club in Palm Beach, Florida. The troika is led by Ike Perlmutter, the reclusive chairman of Marvel Entertainment, who is a longtime acquaintance of President Trump's. The third member is a lawyer named Marc Sherman. None of them has ever served in the U.S. military or government.... But hundreds of documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act and interviews with former administration officials tell a ... story ... of a previously unknown triumvirate that hovered over public servants without any transparency, accountability or oversight. The [informal troika] spoke with VA officials daily ... reviewing all manner of policy and personnel decisions. They prodded the VA to start new programs, and officials travelled to Mar-a-Lago at taxpayer expense to hear their views. 'Everyone has to go down and kiss the ring,' a former administration official said.... The arrangement is without parallel in modern presidential history." --safari (Also linked yesterday.)

** Caught on Tape. Phil Helsel of NBC News: "Hard-line conservative Republicans in the House recently hit a roadblock in their effort to impeach Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein when Speaker Paul Ryan opposed the move. But one of those conservatives, Rep. Devin Nunes, R-Calif., gave a different explanation to donors recently when asked why the impeachment effort had stalled. He said it's because an impeachment would delay the Senate's confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. Nunes, chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, made the statement in an audio recording surreptitiously made by a member of a progressive group who attended a Republican fundraiser on July 30 in Spokane, Washington. The recording was obtained by The Rachel Maddow Show and was played on MSNBC on Wednesday night.... Nunes also appeared to say that if a campaign received and released stolen emails from a foreign government -- he used a hypothetical example of [Rep. Cathy] McMorris Rodgers[, for whom the fundraiser was held,] getting secret information from Portugal, where his ancestors are from -- there would be a criminal element to that." ...

     ... Jeet Heer: "These comments go against the thrust of a frequent claim [link fixed] made by Donald Trump, that 'collusion is not a crime.' As Nunes concedes, collusion could rise to the level of being a conspiracy with a foreign power, which is criminal."

Rebecca Shabad & Frank Thorp of NBC News: "Sen. Rand Paul said Wednesday that he was 'honored' to deliver a letter from ... Donald Trump to the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin during his trip to Moscow this week.... [Okay, that wasn't exactly true.] In a follow-up statement, Paul's office said that the senator delivered the letter to representatives of Putin since the Russian leader himself was not in Moscow during Paul's visit." Also linked yesterday.)

Ohio Congressional Race. Jessie Balmert of the Cincinnati Enquirer: "The tight race [in Ohio's 12th District Congressional special election] between Democrat Danny O'Connor and Republican Troy Balderson just got tighter. Election officials in Franklin County found 588 previously uncounted votes in a Columbus suburb. The result: O'Connor had a net gain of 190 votes, bringing the race's margin down to 1,564."

Kansas Gubernatorial Race

Mrs. McCrabbie: I was wondering about this possibility, so I looked it up:

Brian Lowry, et al., of the Kansas City Star: "No law requires Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach to recuse himself from a recount in the governor's race, but legal and political experts say that he should to maintain trust in the election. Republican legislative leaders said Wednesday morning that a recount is almost certain and could possibly take weeks.... Kobach, the state's top election official, narrowly led Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican primary by a mere 191 votes Wednesday morning after each of the state's 105 counties had posted election returns after technical difficulties in Johnson County delayed results on election night." Mrs. McC: Now we can look forward to some serious voter fraud. (Also linked yesterday.) ...

     ... ** Update. Khorri Atkinson of Axios: "Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach, who holds a razor-thin lead over incumbent Jeff Colyer in Kansas' Republican gubernatorial primary dubbed too close to call, said Wednesday that he will not recuse himself from a recount process.... Kobach's position as the state's top election official and a staunch ally of President Trump conflicts with concerns that have been raised about the integrity of his involvement in past U.S. elections.... As of Wednesday, Kobach was leading by less than 200 votes as remaining ballots continue to be counted." ...

... AND, to a point Akhilleus made in yesterday's Comments.... Kira Lerner of Think Progress: "'If you have a close race, yeah absolutely, voter fraud could swing the margin,' [Kris Kobach] told ThinkProgress at his election night party, as the votes were being counted. He offered as explanation the testimony of a highly discredited expert who claimed in a federal trial -- where a federal judge invalidated Kobach's signature voting law -- that there are thousands of illegal voters in Kansas. 'The numbers in Kansas of non-citizens -- we had an expert in the trial try to estimate it and it's in the thousands, we just don't know how many thousands,' he said." (Also linked yesterday.)

** Renae Merle & Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "Federal prosecutors charged Rep. Chris Collins ([R]-N.Y.), one of President Trump's earliest congressional supporters, with insider trading on Wednesday. Collin's son, his son Cameron Collins, and Stephen Zarsky, the father of Cameron Collins's fiancee were also charged. The indictment is related to Innate Immunotherapeutics, an Australian biotech company, on whose board the congressman served. Collins illegally shared nonpublic information about the company with Cameron Collins, who traded on the information, according to federal prosecutors. Cameron Collins then passed that information along to Zarsky. The trades allowed Collins, his son, and Zarsky to avoid $768,000 in losses, according to the indictment." Mrs. McC: Trumpsky doesn't just hire all the best people; he has all the best friends, too. (Also linked yesterday.)...

... Here's Jerry Zremski's story in the Buffalo News: "Rep. Chris Collins once told supporters to disregardnews reports about apparent conflicts of interest involving one of his stock investments. But on Wednesday morning..., Collins, his son, Cameron, and his son's future father-in-law surrendered to federal authorities in Manhattan, where prosecutors indicted all three on a host of federal charges tied to alleged insider stock trading." ...

     ... The New York Times story, by Alan Feuer & Shane Goldmacher, is here. (Also linked yesterday.)

The Commentariat -- August 8, 2018

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Big Surprise. Michael Schmidt & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "President Trump's lawyers rejected the special counsel's latest terms for an interview in the Russia investigation, countering on Wednesday with an offer that suggested a narrow path for answering questions, people familiar with the matter said.... The letter marked the latest back and forth in the eight months of negotiations between Mr. Trump's lawyers and the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III. Last week, Mr. Mueller proposed a slightly altered format to the expansive interview he want to conduct with the president. Mr. Trump's lawyers did not reject an interview outright.... However, [a] person said that Mr. Trump's lawyers did not want him answering questions about whether he obstructed justice."

Washington Post reporters are liveblogging the Manafort trial. ...

... Josh Gerstein & Darren Samuelsohn of Politico: "... Donald Trump says that the criminal trial of his former campaign aide, Paul Manafort, has nothing to do with him. But jurors in a Virginia courtroom heard his name repeatedly on Tuesday. Trump's name, his 2016 campaign and his inauguration came up several times during the trial's sixth day, the most by far in the bank- and tax-fraud case brought by special counsel Robert Mueller. While the case does not directly involve the president, on Tuesday Trump became an unmistakable presence in the background. Documents and testimony spelled out Manafort's myriad ties to Trump and his 2016 White House run. They showed that Manafort sought to ease his financial pressures by trading on his influence in Trump's orbit. His longtime deputy, Rick Gates, said it was 'possible' he had stolen money from Trump's inauguration committee. And Gates described the roles that he and Manafort had played in Trump's winning campaign. The court even learned that Manafort's ties to Trump extend well beyond the 2016 campaign. A 2013 document entered into evidence showed that Manafort planned to share his New York Yankee season tickets with [Trump]...." ...

... Juan Cole: "Paul Manafort, Donald Trump's campaign manager, is being tried for money laundering, keeping some 15 illegal foreign accounts, and cheating the government out of the taxes he rightfully owed, among a host of other crimes.... His lobbying firm in the 1990s and after represented the most sordid gallery of torturers and villains ever assembled in one client list. There was no strong man so odious that Manafort would not take his money and make phone calls to his old buddies on his behalf.... Manafort is not a criminal in the sense of a deviant. He is all too normal in the US political system. He is how the system works. White collar criminals like Manafort and Trump are no longer even investigated or prosecuted. Manafort had been getting away with it for decades because he was so well connected.... But make no mistake about it. The indictment of Manafort is an indictment of America, a death knoll for US democracy. Manafort is who we have become." --safari

Rebecca Shabad & Frank Thorp of NBC News: "Sen. Rand Paul said Wednesday that he was 'honored' to deliver a letter from ... Donald Trump to the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin during his trip to Moscow this week.... [Okay, that wasn't exactly true.] In a follow-up statement, Paul's office said that the senator delivered the letter to representatives of Putin since the Russian leader himself was not in Moscow during Paul's visit."

Mrs. McCrabbie: I was wondering about this possibility, so I looked it up:

Brian Lowry, et al., of the Kansas City Star: "No law requires Kansas Secretary of State Kris Kobach to recuse himself from a recount in the governor's race, but legal and political experts say that he should to maintain trust in the election. Republican legislative leaders said Wednesday morning that a recount is almost certain and could possibly take weeks.... Kobach, the state's top election official, narrowly led Gov. Jeff Colyer in the Republican primary by a mere 191 votes Wednesday morning after each of the state's 105 counties had posted election returns after technical difficulties in Johnson County delayed results on election night." Mrs. McC: Now we can look forward to some serious voter fraud. ...

... AND, to a point Akhilleus made in today's Comments.... Kira Lerner of Think Progress: "'If you have a close race, yeah absolutely, voter fraud could swing the margin,' [Kris Kobach] told ThinkProgress at his election night party, as the votes were being counted. He offered as explanation the testimony of a highly discredited expert who claimed in a federal trial -- where a federal judge invalidated Kobach's signature voting law -- that there are thousands of illegal voters in Kansas. 'The numbers in Kansas of non-citizens -- we had an expert in the trial try to estimate it and it's in the thousands, we just don't know how many thousands,' he said."

** Shadow Government. Isaac Arsndorf of ProPublica: "Bruce Moskowitz ... is one-third of an informal council that is exerting sweeping influence on the VA from Mar-a-Lago, President Donald Trump's private club in Palm Beach, Florida. The troika is led by Ike Perlmutter, the reclusive chairman of Marvel Entertainment, who is a longtime acquaintance of President Trump's. The third member is a lawyer named Marc Sherman. None of them has ever served in the U.S. military or government.... But hundreds of documents obtained through the Freedom of Information Act and interviews with former administration officials tell a ... story ... of a previously unknown triumvirate that hovered over public servants without any transparency, accountability or oversight. The [informal troika] spoke with VA officials daily ... reviewing all manner of policy and personnel decisions. They prodded the VA to start new programs, and officials travelled to Mar-a-Lago at taxpayer expense to hear their views. 'Everyone has to go down and kiss the ring,' a former administration official said.... The arrangement is without parallel in modern presidential history." --safari

Juan Cole: "Europe, Russia, China defy Trump on Iran Sanctions" --safari

Amanda Erickson of the Washington Post: "China will impose tariffs on an additional $16 billion worth of U.S. products, officials announced Wednesday, marking the latest parry in an escalating trade war between the two countries. The 25 percent tariffs will go into effect Aug. 23, targeting cars, crude oil, natural gas and coal.... China's announcement is a direct response to new duties on Chinese goods imported into the United States, announced Tuesday in Washington. Those new tariffs, totaling $16 billion, will be levied against 279 products, including motorcycles, steam turbines and railway cars." ...

Trade deficit -- $52 billion reduction in the trade deficit for the quarter.... I think nobody would have thought that would be possible so quickly. $52 billion reduction in the trade deficit for the quarter. -- Donald Trump, July 30, in one of the (at least) five times he has made the claim in recent days

We doubt the president himself is digging into the details of the GDP report, so either he is being misled by his staff or misunderstood something in a briefing. He may be very disappointed when the third-quarter numbers are released, given that the year is already on track to have the largest trade deficit in a decade. We generally are reluctant to give Four Pinocchios for a factoid based on government data. But the president is presenting this in such a misleading manner that we have little choice. In every instance, the president says the trade deficit fell by $52 billion from the first to the second quarter, calling it one of the 'biggest wins' in the GDP report. He may be convinced of it, but that's simply not true. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post

My guess: Trump just made up the number. It's a very authentic-sounding number, doncha think? Anyway, it sure makes his unnecessary & counterproductive trade war look very smart. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie

Renae Merle & Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: "Federal prosecutors charged Rep. Chris Collins ([R]-N.Y.), one of President Trump's earliest congressional supporters, with insider trading on Wednesday. Collin's son, his son Cameron Collins, and Stephen Zarsky, the father of Cameron Collins's fiancee were also charged. The indictment is related to Innate Immunotherapeutics, an Australian biotech company, on whose board the congressman served. Collins illegally shared nonpublic information about the company with Cameron Collins, who traded on the information, according to federal prosecutors. Cameron Collins then passed that information along to Zarsky. The trades allowed Collins, his son, and Zarsky to avoid $768,000 in losses, according to the indictment." Mrs. McC: Trump doesn't just hire all the best people; he has all the best friends, too. ...

     ... The New York Times story, by Alan Feuer & Shane Goldmacher, is here.

Colbert explains yesterday's developments in the Manafort trial:

*****

Ohio Congressional & Primary Election Results:

The New York Times story, by Jonathan Martin & Alexander Burns, on yesterday's election results is here. ...

... Alexander Burns & Jonathan Martin with some take-aways: "The most significant harbinger from the Ohio race may not be the narrow margin, but the turnout gap between the most and least heavily populated parts of a district that absorbs the close-in suburbs of Columbus and rural stretches of central Ohio. In both Franklin County, which includes Columbus, and Delaware County, the fast-growing suburb just north of Ohio's capital, 42 percent of voters turned out. But in the five more lightly populated counties that round out the district, turnout ranged from 27 to 32 percent. This is an ominous sign for Republicans: The highest-income and best-educated elements of the electorate -- those deeply uneasy with President Trump -- are showing the most interest in voting.... The night was, on the whole, a display of strength by more conventional Democrats and a reminder that Democratic primary voters across the country are not necessarily motivated chiefly by liberal ideology." It was a good night for women & labor. ...

... Margaret Hartmann: "President Trump likes to act as if his endorsements are as good as gold, but two key races featuring candidates he backed ended with a question mark on Tuesday night. While Ohio congressional candidate Troy Balderson and Kansas GOP gubernatorial candidate Kris Kobach currently have narrow leads in their respective races, both were too close to call (though that didn't prevent Balderson from calling it, or Trump from claiming credit)."

... Ed Kilgore: "In conservative Missouri, a right-to-work law enacted last year by a Republican-controlled legislature and former Republican Governor Eric Greitens was overturned by voters who rejected the anti-labor measure by a comfortable margin. In early returns, rural counties were joining urban labor strongholds in opposing right-to-work.... When unions and their allies succeeded in putting the law on hold pending the ballot measure, the legislature countered by moving the vote from the relatively-high-turnout general election to the primary, hoping to kill it with voter indifference. But it didn't work.... The Missouri outcome is a much-needed tonic for the troops of the labor movement, and a good rehearsal for its political efforts in November." ...

Ohio Congressional Race (Special Election): New York Times results are here. At 8:20 pm ET Tuesday, Democrat "Danny O'Connor leads by 24 percentage points over Troy Balderson (R) with 2 percent of precincts fully reporting." MSNBC says all the early vote totals are in. The Republican is sure to close the gap in this Congressional District Republicans have held for decades. With 59% of precincts reporting, O'Connor is ahead by only 1.9%. With 75% reporting, O'Connor's lead is down to about 600 votes. With 85% in, both candidates have 49.7% of the vote. "Troy Balderson leads by 0.9 percentage points, or 1,754 votes, over Danny O'Connor with 100 percent of precincts fully reporting." The race is not being called, however, as there are still more than 3,000 uncounted provisional (lean Democratic) & absentee (lean Republican) ballots. If these ballots, when counted, should reduce Balderdash's lead to 0.5 % or less, the state would automatically do a recount. Both men are on the November ballot. Update: According to the AP, the Ohio secretary of state says there are more than 8,400 uncounted provisional & absentee ballots remaining.

Michigan: New York Times results are here. "Four Republicans and three Democrats are running for governor...."Gretchen Whitmer has been declared the winner of the Democratic primary for governor, & Bill Schulte has won the Republican primary.

Missouri: New York Times results are here. Sen. Claire McCaskell (D) easily won the primary; her challenger in November will be Josh Hawley.

Kansas: New York Times results are here. "The biggest race in Kansas is for governor, a job held by Jeff Colyer since Sam Brownback resigned to accept an ambassadorship. Mr. Colyer is running against Secretary of State Kris W Kobach, the face of President Trump's voter fraud panel, in the Republican primary. In a dynamic that has become very familiar this year, they are fighting to be seen as the most loyal and effective ally of the president." Ron Estes won the GOP primary for the 4th Congressional District. Also, Ron Estes lost the GOP primary for the 4th Congressional District. Because both candidates are named Ron Estes. Laura Kelly has won the Democratic nomination for governor, but the Republican nomination is still too close to call with 73% reporting.

Washington State: The New York Times is reporting results here. Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) received 55.5% of the vote with 52% of precincts reporting. Her challenger will be Susan Hutchison (D) in this top-two state primary.

*****

Sharon LaFraniere of the New York Times: "The trial of Paul Manafort on bank and tax fraud charges descended on Tuesday into a series of brutal assaults on the character of two of President Trump's top campaign aides, as prosecutors cast Mr. Manafort as the architect of a sprawling multiyear swindle and defense lawyers portrayed Rick Gates, the prosecution's star witness, as a serial thief, adulterer and liar. The testimony managed to further blacken the reputations of both Mr. Manafort, Mr. Trump's campaign chairman for three months in mid-2016, and Mr. Gates, who was deputy campaign chairman and later executive director of Mr. Trump's inaugural committee." ...

... The New York Times liveblogged the Manafort trial. "On Tuesday, prosecutors began leading [Manafort's right-hand-man Rick Gates] through a clinical examination of his and Mr. Manafort's business dealings, including how he doctored invoices. Mr. Gates admitted on Monday that they committed crimes together." ...

... The Washington Post's liveblog, which provided more detail on the testimony, is here. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Rachel Weiner of the Washington Post: "The courtroom showdown between Paul Manafort and his former right-hand man, Rick Gates, grew painfully personal Tuesday as a defense lawyer forced Gates, the prosecution's star witness, to admit he had a transatlantic extramarital affair and embezzled money to live beyond his means. During his second day on the witness stand, Gates detailed the lies, phony documents and fake profits he claims to have engineered at Manafort's direction. Manafort, seated at the defense table, at times stared intently at his former protege and business partner, who has assiduously avoided Manafort's gaze despite their proximity inside the federal courthouse in Alexandria, Va." ...

... Josh Gerstein of Politico: "For days, U.S. District Court Judge T.S. Ellis has been cracking the whip at prosecutors in the Paul Manafort fraud trial, prodding them again and again to keep the case moving forward and to drop matters he considers irrelevant. Prosecutors' frustration with those exhortations spilled out publicly Monday in a series of prickly clashes in which Ellis snapped at one of special counsel Robert Mueller's prosecutors, Greg Andres, and Andres sometimes lashed back at the judge -- something lawyers rarely do.... The clashes with the judge were unusual and could be risky, since some of them took place with the jury in the room." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Michael Bender & Sadie Gurman of the Wall Street Journal: "... in recent months, [the] relationship [between Deputy AG Rod Rosenstein & President Trump] has improved. The two men talk once or twice a week, and Mr. Trump calls Mr. Rosenstein on his cellphone to discuss such issues as immigration, according to one person familiar with the matter. Mr. Rosenstein consistently prepares the president's team ahead of major news, officials said. And he visits the White House as often as three times a week, meeting with the president or White House chief of staff John Kelly. He also has a regular lunch with White House general counsel Don McGahn. 'It's fantastic,' Mr. Trump said about his rapport with Mr. Rosenstein when a spokesman told him The Wall Street Journal was seeking a comment. 'We have great relationship. Make sure you tell them that.'" Mrs. McC: Don't know why I was able to read this firewalled WSJ story, but the link above worked twice. Don't count on its lasting.

Rick Wilson in Rolling Stone: "As these past several days prove, Trump's impenetrable belief that he's a genius surrounded by morons will be his undoing. He's tweeting himself -- to say nothing of his family and co-conspirators -- into a legal dead end. A meeting with Mueller is the big leagues, where the stakes are existential, the opposing team is merciless and the downside risks are the size of the White House. This impulsive, stubborn man can't resist trying to pull off this stunt. What could possibly go wrong?" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Alan Feuer of the New York Times: "Prosecutors have not said what information they think [Kristin] Davis [-- the 'Manhattan Madam' --] can provide about ties between Russia and Mr. Trump's presidential bid, but one obvious nexus between Ms. Davis and the president is [Roger] Stone, who served them both as a political strategist over the years.... Ms. Davis may be able to help investigators sort through Mr. Stone's confusing and complicated ties to ... WikiLeaks and Guccifer 2.0 -- that are at the center of the hacking of Democratic emails and political documents, and their subsequent leak to the public.... Mr. Stone employed her, on and off, for years, as an assistant in his office. Ms. Davis also has ties to one of Mr. Stone's close aides, Andrew Miller.... Is it possible that the former madam of a high-end escort service ... might have information touching on the country's national security? Only time will tell." Mrs. McC: Because Bob Mueller -- so far -- won't.

Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "Federal prosecutors in New York are homing in on possible tax fraud as part of their criminal investigation into the financial dealings of former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, the Wall Street Journal reported Tuesday. A person familiar with the probe told the Journal that the possible fraud violations center on whether Cohen underreported the income he earned from his taxi medallion business on federal tax returns. Those funds amounted to hundreds of thousands of dollars Cohen received in cash. Prosecutors from the Manhattan U.S. attorney's office are also investigating whether employees at New York's Sterling National Bank allowed Cohen to take out loans for that business without providing appropriate documentation, according to the report. Cohen is under investigation for a host of financial crimes, including campaign finance violations and bank fraud. The former Trump Organization executive has signaled his willingness to cooperate with prosecutors and turn over information damaging to the president."

Louis Sahagun of the Los Angeles Times: "The federal government is moving to allow commercial logging of healthy green pine trees for the first time in decades in the Los Padres National Forest north of Los Angeles, a tactic the U.S. Forest Services says will reduce fire risk. It's an idea President Trump appeared to endorse in tweets inaccurately linking wildfire to state water management.... Environmental groups have long argued that the logging industry has used fire as an excuse to plunder forests, cutting big trees and leaving behind only small, unmarketable timber.... The Forest Service plans to remove most of the sagebrush and cut down thousands of Jeffrey pine, Ponderosa pine and white fir trees across 2,800 acres it says are overgrown, unhealthy and vulnerable to drought and disease. Officials said the plans include creation of a firebreak 12 miles long and up to half a mile wide along Tecuya Ridge, and removal of brush and trees, including marketable green pines in Cuddy Valley, without first conducting formal environmental impact reviews of the potential effect on habitats and wildlife such as the federally endangered California condor." Emphasis added.

California Takes on TrumpySmog. Tony Barboza of the Los Angeles Times: "California is firing back at the Trump administration with a plan to safeguard the state's greenhouse gas emissions rules from a proposed federal rollback. A state Air Resources Board proposal released Tuesday would force automakers to meet California's existing standards on car and truck pollution, even if weaker ones are adopted by Trump administration. California regulators said the clarification is a protective move intended to close a potential loophole automakers might use to elude compliance with tougher standards adopted jointly with the Obama administration."

"Toxic Shock." Sydney Frankin of ArchNews: "One of the most dangerous construction-related carcinogens is now legally allowed back into U.S. manufacturing under a new rule by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). On June 1, the EPA authorized a 'SNUR' (Significant New Use Rule) which allows new products containing asbestos to be created on a case-by-case basis. According to environmental advocates, this new rule gives chemical companies the upper hand in creating new uses for harmful products in the United States. In May, the EPA released a report detailing its new framework for evaluating the risk of its top prioritized substances. The report states that the agency will no longer consider the effect or presence of substances in the air, ground, or water in its risk assessments. This news comes after the EPA reviewed its first batch of 10 chemicals under the 2016 amendment to the 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), which required the agency to continually reevaluate hundreds of potentially toxic chemicals to see whether they should face new restrictions or be removed from the market. The SNUR greenlights companies to use toxic chemicals like asbestos without consideration about how they will endanger people who are indirectly in contact with them." Emphasis added. Mrs. McC: Pruitt or not, I find this unbelievable. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "The American Civil Liberties Union on Tuesday filed a federal lawsuit against the Trump administration over its decision to remove asylum protections for victims of domestic and gang violence. The ACLU is arguing against 'expedited removal' policies, put forth by Attorney General Jeff Sessions, that it says 'generally' deny claims of violence of that nature.... In June, the attorney general overturned asylum protections for certain victims of violence, effectively reversing a push by the Obama administration to provide refuge to women with credible claims of domestic violence." ...

... Julia Ainsley of NBC News: "The Trump administration is expected to issue a proposal in coming weeks that would make it harder for legal immigrants to become citizens or get green cards if they have ever used a range of popular public welfare programs, including Obamacare, four sources with knowledge of the plan told NBC News. The move, which would not need congressional approval, is part of White House senior adviser Stephen Miller's plan to limit the number of migrants who obtain legal status in the U.S. each year.... Immigration lawyers and advocates and public health researchers say it would be the biggest change to the legal immigration system in decades and estimate that more than 20 million immigrants could be affected." Mrs. McC: I don't have to tell you this is senseless cruelty. Many of those who suffer will be the American children of these legal immigrants. One good reason to vote Democratic: so Congressional Democrats can hall Miller up before some committee & ask "What the fuck is the matter with you?" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Sophie Murguia of Mother Jones: "The proposal could affect as many as 47 percent of noncitizens currently in the U.S., according to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute of an earlier leaked draft of the rule change. (In contrast, only 3 percent of noncitizens are affected by the rule as it currently stands.)" ...

... Jonathan Chait: "Under the forthcoming plan, any legal immigrants who have ever used (or whose household contains people who have ever used) children's health insurance (CHIP), Obamacare, supplemental nutrition assistance, or other social benefits could be denied legal status. Since the 19th century, immigration policy has discriminated against migrants who might become a 'public charge.' But Trump plans to expand the definition of the term to include basic benefits for the working class.... Almost nobody in the United States actually pays for their own insurance in a completely self-sufficient fashion. People who get insurance through their job are benefitting from a massive, costly tax deduction for employer-sponsored insurance. Those who get it through Medicare likewise enjoy a taxpayer-financed social benefit. Programs like Obamacare and CHIP simply extend the same regimen of subsidies and risk pooling to the low-income population that have already been granted to the middle class.... Trump's contribution to the party creed will be to infuse the top-down class war with a racial tinge. That this all proceeds from some fastidiousness about following the rules is a pretense nobody need bother entertaining anymore." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Katherine Krueger of Splinter: "It's nearly impossible to read about the proposal -- which advocates told the network would constitute the biggest change to the immigration system in decades and could affect at least 20 million immigrants -- and ascribe any other motive than abject cruelty and racism." ...

... Thank You for Your Service. Dana Milbank: "Sgt. Temo Juarez was a Trump guy. An Iraq combat veteran who served as a Marine infantryman and then an Army National Guardsman, his friends called him a 'super conservative.' With his wife, he brought up their two daughters in Central Florida. He supported Trump in 2016, eager for a change. But now, 'I am eating my words,' he told the military newspaper Stars and Stripes in an interview published last week. On Friday..., his wife, Alejandra, left the country under a deportation order. She had come to the United States from Mexico illegally as a teenager two decades ago and had until now being living undisturbed with Temo, a naturalized U.S. citizen, and daughters, both natural-born Americans.... The advocacy group American Families United, extrapolating from census figures, estimates there are as many as 11,800 active-duty military service members with a spouse or family member vulnerable to deportation. And that doesn't include veterans' families." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Trumpies Say Whatever Suits Them. Dell Cameron of Gizmodo: "An investigation carried out by Federal Communication Commission's own inspector general officially refutes controversial claims that a cyberattack was responsible for disrupting the FCC's comment system in May 2017, at the height of the agency's efforts to kill off net neutrality. The investigation also uncovered that FCC officials had provided congressional lawmakers with misleading information regarding conversations between an FCC employee and the Federal Bureau of Investigation's cybercrime task force. A report from the inspector general's office (OIG) released Tuesday afternoon states that the comment system's downtime was likely caused by a combination of 'system design issues' and a massive surge in traffic caused when Last Week Tonight host John Oliver directed millions of TV viewers to flood the FCC's website with pro-net neutrality comments.... 'Today's IG report exposes [FCC] Chairman [Ajit] Pai's general willingness to ignore logic and contradictory evidence when doing so supports his preconceived notions and political agenda,' Jessica J. González, Free Press deputy director and senior counsel, told Gizmodo.'"

Aris Folley of the Hill: "Element Electronics, a consumer electronics company in South Carolina, says it will be closing its plant in Winnsboro due to tariffs imposed by President Trump. The State reported Tuesday that the company was one of the largest remaining employers in Fairfield County after the local Walmart, which used to be the largest grocery store in the county, closed its doors two years ago."

All the Best People, Ctd. "Wilbur the Grifter" Edition. Dan Alexander of Forbes: "Over several months, in speaking with 21 people who know Ross, Forbes uncovered a pattern: Many of those who worked directly with him claim that [Commerce Secretary Wilbur] Ross wrongly siphoned or outright stole a few million here and a few million there, huge amounts for most but not necessarily for the commerce secretary. At least if you consider them individually. But all told, these allegations -- which sparked lawsuits, reimbursements and an SEC fine -- come to more than $120 million. If even half of the accusations are legitimate, the current United States secretary of commerce could rank among the biggest grifters in American history.... Those who've done business with Ross generally tell a consistent story, of a man obsessed with money and untethered to facts." Not only that, he steals Sweet'N Low from the local restaurant & doesn't pay his household help. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Jonathan O'Connell of the Washington Post: "The administrator of the General Services Administration, which manages the FBI headquarters project, may have misled Congress about White House involvement in the project, according to a portion of a soon-to-be published report from the agency's inspector general that was obtained by The Washington Post. Last year the GSA and the FBI scrapped a long-delayed plan to build an FBI headquarters campus in the Washington suburbs in favor of a proposal to build a smaller headquarters in downtown D.C. and relocate some staff to Alabama, Idaho and West Virginia. President Trump has said he supported the new plan. Although GSA Administrator Emily Murphy, speaking to the House Appropriations Committee in April, mentioned discussions of funding with the White House's Office of Management and Budget, she downplayed the role of the White House in the decision-making process. The conclusions section of the inspector general's report, which is expected to be released publicly in the coming weeks, states Murphy's testimony 'was incomplete and may have left the misleading impression that she had no discussions with the President or senior White House officials about the project.'"

Beyond the Beltway

Harriet Ryan of the Los Angeles Times: "USC appointed a retired aerospace executive as interim president and laid out a detailed plan for selecting a permanent leader Tuesday, ending speculation about whether outgoing President C.L. Max Nikias might remain in the post. Nikias, embattled over his administration's handling of a campus gynecologist accused of sexually abusing patients, relinquished his duties after a meeting of USC's board. The trustees tapped one of their own, Wanda Austin, an alumna and former president of the Aerospace Corp., to temporarily run the university. The trustees also approved the formation of a search committee and the hiring of search firm Isaacson, Miller to coordinate the selection of a successor."

Jamiles Lartey of the Guardian: "... unlike in the 2012 killing of Trayvon Martin, which introduced much of the US to so-called 'stand your ground' (SYG) laws, the fatal July shooting of 28-year-old Markeis McGlockton -- who was black -- is slowly gathering political momentum that could roll backself-defense statutes some say are little more than a racially discriminatory license to kill." All five Democratic gubernatorial candidates favor rolling back the Florida laws & even some Republicans say the Pineallas County sheriff who refused to press charges against McGlockton's white vigilante killer misinterpreted the SYG laws. One GOP state senator said, '"Stand your ground' uses a reasonable-person standard. It's not that you were just afraid.... It's an objective standard.'"

The Commentariat -- August 7, 2018

Afternoon Update:

The New York Times is liveblogging the Manafort trial. "On Tuesday, prosecutors began leading [Manafort's right-hand-man Rick Gates] through a clinical examination of his and Mr. Manafort's business dealings, including how he doctored invoices. Mr. Gates admitted on Monday that they committed crimes together." ...

     ... Update: @4:25 pm ET, here's the latest recap: "Rick Gates ... is being cross-examined by defense lawyers in Mr. Manafort's trial on bank and tax fraud charges in Alexandria, Va. As defense lawyers attacked his credibility, Mr. Gates admitted to having an affair about a decade ago, but he denied using company money for his trysts. Prosecutors led him through a clinical examination of his and Mr. Manafort's business dealings, including how he hid income to avoid taxes. It is unclear whether Mr. Manafort will take the stand in his own defense. His lawyers would not say. The prosecutors said they expect to wind up their case this week." ...

... The Washington Post's liveblog, which provides more detail on the testimony, is here. ...

... Josh Gerstein of Politico: "For days, U.S. District Court Judge T.S. Ellis has been cracking the whip at prosecutors in the Paul Manafort fraud trial, prodding them again and again to keep the case moving forward and to drop matters he considers irrelevant. Prosecutors' frustration with those exhortations spilled out publicly Monday in a series of prickly clashes in which Ellis snapped at one of special counsel Robert Mueller's prosecutors, Greg Andres, and Andres sometimes lashed back at the judge -- something lawyers rarely do.... The clashes with the judge were unusual and could be risky, since some of them took place with the jury in the room."

Rick Wilson in Rolling Stone: "As these past several days prove, Trump's impenetrable belief that he's a genius surrounded by morons will be his undoing. He's tweeting himself -- to say nothing of his family and co-conspirators -- into a legal dead end. A meeting with Mueller is the big leagues, where the stakes are existential, the opposing team is merciless and the downside risks are the size of the White House. This impulsive, stubborn man can't resist trying to pull off this stunt. What could possibly go wrong?"

"Toxic Shock." Sydney Franklin of ArchNews: "One of the most dangerous construction-related carcinogens is now legally allowed back into U.S. manufacturing under a new rule by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). On June 1, the EPA authorized a 'SNUR' (Significant New Use Rule) which allows new products containing asbestos to be created on a case-by-case basis. According to environmental advocates, this new rule gives chemical companies the upper hand in creating new uses for harmful products in the United States. In May, the EPA released a report detailing its new framework for evaluating the risk of its top prioritized substances. The report states that the agency will no longer consider the effect or presence of substances in the air, ground, or water in its risk assessments. This news comes after the EPA reviewed its first batch of 10 chemicals under the 2016 amendment to the 1976 Toxic Substances Control Act (TSCA), which required the agency to continually reevaluate hundreds of potentially toxic chemicals to see whether they should face new restrictions or be removed from the market. The SNUR greenlights companies to use toxic chemicals like asbestos without consideration about how they will endanger people who are indirectly in contact with them." Emphasis added. Mrs. McC: Pruitt or not, I find this unbelievable.

Julia Ainsley of NBC News: "The Trump administration is expected to issue a proposal in coming weeks that would make it harder for legal immigrants to become citizens or get green cards if they have ever used a range of popular public welfare programs, including Obamacare, four sources with knowledge of the plan told NBC News. The move, which would not need congressional approval, is part of White House senior adviser Stephen Miller's plan to limit the number of migrants who obtain legal status in the U.S. each year.... Immigration lawyers and advocates and public health researchers say it would be the biggest change to the legal immigration system in decades and estimate that more than 20 million immigrants could be affected." Mrs. McC: I don't have to tell you this is senseless cruelty. Many who suffer will be the American children of these legal immigrants. One reason to vote Democratic: so Congress can haul Miller up before some committee & ask "What the fuck is the matter with you?" ...

... Jonathan Chait: "Under the forthcoming plan, any legal immigrants who have ever used (or whose household contains people who have ever used) children's health insurance (CHIP), Obamacare, supplemental nutrition assistance, or other social benefits could be denied legal status. Since the 19th century, immigration policy has discriminated against migrants who might become a 'public charge.' But Trump plans to expand the definition of the term to include basic benefits for the working class.... Almost nobody in the United States actually pays for their own insurance in a completely self-sufficient fashion. People who get insurance through their job are benefitting from a massive, costly tax deduction for employer-sponsored insurance. Those who get it through Medicare likewise enjoy a taxpayer-financed social benefit. Programs like Obamacare and CHIP simply extend the same regimen of subsidies and risk pooling to the low-income population that have already been granted to the middle class.... Trump's contribution to the party creed will be to infuse the top-down class war with a racial tinge. That this all proceeds from some fastidiousness about following the rules is a pretense nobody need bother entertaining anymore." ...

... Thank You for Your Service. Dana Milbank: "Sgt. Temo Juarez was a Trump guy. An Iraq combat veteran who served as a Marine infantryman and then an Army National Guardsman, his friends called him a 'super conservative.' With his wife, he brought up their two daughters in Central Florida. He supported Trump in 2016, eager for a change. But now, 'I am eating my words,' he told the military newspaper Stars and Stripes in an interview published last week. On Friday..., his wife, Alejandra, left the country under a deportation order. She had come to the United States from Mexico illegally as a teenager two decades ago and had until now being living undisturbed with Temo, a naturalized U.S. citizen, and daughters, both natural-born Americans.... The advocacy group American Families United, extrapolating from census figures, estimates there are as many as 11,800 active-duty military service members with a spouse or family member vulnerable to deportation. And that doesn't include veterans' families."

All the Best People, Ctd. "Wilbur the Grifter" Edition. Dan Alexander of Forbes: "Over several months, in speaking with 21 people who know Ross, Forbes uncovered a pattern: Many of those who worked directly with him claim that [Commerce Secretary Wilbur] Ross wrongly siphoned or outright stole a few million here and a few million there, huge amounts for most but not necessarily for the commerce secretary. At least if you consider them individually. But all told, these allegations -- which sparked lawsuits, reimbursements and an SEC fine -- come to more than $120 million. If even half of the accusations are legitimate, the current United States secretary of commerce could rank among the biggest grifters in American history.... Those who've done business with Ross generally tell a consistent story, of a man obsessed with money and untethered to facts." Plus, he steals Sweet'N Low from the local restaurant & doesn't pay his household help.

*****

Today is primary election day in Kansas, Michigan, Missouri & Washington State. There is also a special Congressional election in Ohio. More on that below. ...

... Maggie Astor of the New York Times looks at the most important races in today's primaries.

Sharon LaFraniere & Emily Cochrane of the New York Times: "Rick Gates, Paul Manafort's right-hand man for years, began testifying against his former boss on Monday in federal court in Alexandria, Va. He is considered the most important witness in Mr. Manafort's trial on tax and bank fraud charges. Asked by prosecutors whether he was involved in any criminal activity with Mr. Manafort, Mr. Gates responded, 'Yes.' Mr. Gates also testified that he and Mr. Manafort held 15 foreign bank accounts that were not disclosed to the federal government. Mr. Gates said the required financial filings were not submitted 'at Mr. Manafort's direction.' Mr. Gates admitted to a wide variety of crimes, including bank fraud, tax fraud, money laundering, lying to federal authorities, lying in a court deposition and stealing hundreds of thousands of dollars from Mr. Manafort's accounts by falsely claiming expenses.... Mr. Gates ... remained on the campaign as a liaison to the Republican National Committee through the election. Mr. Gates was named deputy chairman of Mr. Trump's inaugural campaign, raising huge sums for the event." ...

... Rachel Weiner, et al., of the Washington Post: "In his first hour on the witness stand, Gates catalogued years of crimes, saying most of his wrongdoing was committed on behalf of his former boss, Paul Manafort, while other crimes were for his own benefit, including the theft of hundreds thousands of dollars. Gates also made clear he was testifying against Manafort in the hopes of receiving a lesser prison sentence, having pleaded guilty in February as part of a deal with special counsel Robert S. Mueller III."

Team Trump Preparing Weenie Whiney Letter to Mueller. Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "Rudolph W. Giuliani ... said Monday that Trump's legal team is planning to send a letter to special counsel Robert S. Mueller III this week that will largely rebuff Mueller's latest offer of a presidential interview that would include questions about possible obstruction of justice. 'We have a real reluctance about allowing any questions about obstruction,' Giuliani said in an interview with The Washington Post.... He said he and other Trump lawyers have been discussing the details of a draft version of the letter in recent days and hope to send it to Mueller 'sometime on Tuesday or Wednesday.' Giuliani said he expects the letter to 'continue the negotiations' rather than formally decline Mueller's request. 'The president still hasn't made a decision, and we're not going to make a final decision just yet,' he said."

David Graham of the Atlantic: "In an attempt to defend his son Donald Trump Jr. on Sunday..., Donald Trump may instead have incriminated him -- and himself.... The president packed a great deal of potential trouble into less than 280 characters. First, he seems to proceed from the assumption that by declaring the purpose legal, that makes it so, when in fact the acknowledgement points to the ways the meeting may have broken federal laws. Second, by contradicting his earlier claims, the president again underscores his prior dishonesty.... The changing accounts ... get at accusations that the president obstructed justice. Finally, the tweet is riddled with internal contradictions. If the president is unconcerned about his son, why is he tweeting angrily about [a WashPo] story? And if what happened was entirely legal, why is he so quick to deny that he knew about the meeting?" ...

... Mike Allen of Axios: "Bob Bauer, a former White House counsel to President Obama who's now a law professor at NYU, said the new tweet weakens an argument for Trump's lawyers 'that he shouldn't have to interview with Mueller because he doesn't know anything.'" ...

... Andrew Prokop of Vox: "Even though Trump's tweet isn't as new or revelatory as many are portraying it, it has revived questions about the meeting itself.... Most important of all in my view, is the question of whether there's still more to the story of what actually happened during and after the meeting. The story from the meeting's participants has been more or less consistent since last July. They claim the meeting was a bit of a mess and a disappointment, that no useful dirt was offered, and that there was no follow-up afterward. No one has yet claimed otherwise...." ...

... It's Not a Crime if Trump Does It. Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Last week, President Trump and his lawyer Rudolph W. Giuliani argued that collusion isn't a crime. But on Monday, Trump suggested [in tweets] that Hillary Clinton should be investigated for this supposed non-crime. 'Collusion is very real with Russia,' Trump quoted conservative commentator Dan Bongino as saying on Trump's favorite Fox News morning show, 'but only with Hillary and the Democrats, and we should demand a full investigation.'... Investigations, it bears emphasizing, are generally launched to find illegal activity. Trump's call to investigate Clinton's alleged collusion with Russia -- a complex and strained theory having to do with the Steele dossier -- would seem to belie his true opinion about whether collusion is, in fact, a crime. But it's hardly the first time.... Over and over, mostly through his allegations of Democratic collusion, he's acknowledged the criminal nature of collusion in ways that would seem to make it much more difficult for his lawyers to press the case that collusion by Donald Trump Jr. or anybody else wasn't criminal." Blake provides five examples. ...

... Dana Bash of CNN: "... Donald Trump has been urged [by 'associates'? -- passive voice, Dana!] to stop tweeting about the 2016 Trump Tower meeting between Trump's top advisers and several Russians, a source familiar with discussions tells CNN. The President was advised that his tweeting only gives oxygen to the topic, even if those around Trump do not believe there is any truly new development." ...

... Like Akhilleus, in yesterday's commentary, Aaron Blake is unimpressed with the Trump administration's newest "explanation" that "facts develop": "... the spokespeople and advisers tasked with squaring Trump's version of reality with actual reality must often contort themselves accordingly. Early in the administration, this meant Kellyanne Conway talking about how the administration had 'alternative facts.' Later, it was Sean Spicer explaining that he didn't 'knowingly' lie to the American people. On Sunday, they tried a couple of new tacks: asserting that 'facts develop' and saying that the president 'misspoke' -- while saying something he has said dozens of times.... Facts might have 'developed' from [Trump attorney Jay] Sekulow's perspective, but the actual events never changed.... national security adviser John Bolton offered another extremely hard-to-stomach explanation for Trump's soft stance toward Vladimir Putin on Russia's interference in the 2016 U.S. election, saying Trump merely 'misspoke.'... As the video clip [Chris] Wallace played shows, [the would-wouldn't claim] was hardly the only moment in the joint news conference with Putin in which Trump played down the idea that Russia interfered." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: "Misspeaking" means saying something you don't mean, often because you garbled what you intended to say. But politicians use "I misspoke" to explain away things they've said that they do mean but wish they hadn't admitted. Saying "would" for "wouldn't" would be a good example of misspeaking, would that it were not another Trump lie-excuse. One cannot repeatedly "misspeak" the same thing. "What a waste it is to lose one';s mind" is misspeaking; making approving remarks about Putin again & again is not. ...

... Calm Down, Breathless Pundits! Matt Ford of the New Republic: "Ultimately, the frenzied search for a single piece of evidence that proves Trump illegally colluded with Russia works in his favor. It creates a public expectation that will be difficult for Mueller to meet, thereby setting the stage for disappointment when the inquiry concludes. In doing so, it minimizes the considerable amount of evidence that's already public: Trump's supine performance at last month's Helsinki summit with Vladimir Putin, the constant outreach efforts between the Trump campaign and Russian intermediaries throughout the 2016 election, the sudden dismissal of FBI Director James Comey last May, the persistent efforts to discredit and shut down investigations into what really happened, and so much more.... By holding out for a smoking gun, Trump's critics may be downplaying the gunpowder residue that's already coating his hands."

Anna Schectar of NBC News: "Kristin Davis, the 'Manhattan Madam' who says she provided prostitutes to New York's rich and famous, is scheduled to testify before special counsel Robert Mueller's grand jury in Washington this week, according to a person with knowledge of the matter. Last week an investigator on Mueller's team questioned Davis about Russian collusion, said the source.... Davis, 41, told NBC News in July that someone in Mueller's office called her attorney to ask her to speak to investigators, and that she believed it was because of her ties to former Donald Trump adviser Roger Stone."

Greg Sargent: "One of [Trump's campaign] promises, of course, was to return prosperity to what he called the 'forgotten men and women,' the victims of self-enriching economic elites who subjected them, via either stupid or corrupt trade and immigration policies, to debilitating labor competition at the hands of slave-wage labor in China and migrant invaders 'pouring' across the southern border. But the Associated Press looked at the last year's worth of employment data and made an interesting discovery. Most of its benefits are accruing to counties carried by Hillary Clinton in 2016[.]... 'Job growth in Trump's economy is still concentrated in the same general places as it was toward the end of Barack Obama's presidency -- when roughly 58.7 percent of the average annual job gains were in Democratic counties.'... If that continues, it may mean that Trump's combination of embracing GOP plutocracy and sticking only with the residual xenophobic aspects of Trumpian populist nationalism may not end up delivering huge economic gains to Trump country, after all."

Gardiner Harris of the New York Times: "The Trump administration said it would restore sanctions on Iran that had been lifted under the 2015 nuclear accord at midnight on Monday, ratcheting up pressure on Tehran while worsening a divide with Europe. The new sanctions are a consequence of President Trump's decision in May to withdraw from the nuclear deal with world powers. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said on Sunday that the goal was to get Iran to change its ways -- namely, ending its support of brutal governments or uprisings in the Middle East. European officials have said that the Iran nuclear agreement is crucial to their national security. International inspectors have concluded that Iran is complying with the accord." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

We won with young. We won with old. We won with highly educated. We won with poorly educated. I love the poorly educated. -- Donald Trump, Nevada presidential primary victory speech, February 2016 ...

... NEW. The Poor-Education President. Feliciz Sonmez of the Washington Post: "Former education secretary Arne Duncan on Tuesday sharply criticized the Trump administration's policies on education and said he doubts the president wants an educated workforce because 'it doesn't play to his authoritarian tendencies.'... Duncan argued that a highly educated workforce would mean more people challenging Trump on his policies as well as his false or misleading claims. 'I'm not sure if that's in his self-interest,' he said." Mrs. McC: Arne is a tool, but he gets this right.

Nearly Everything Trump Says Is a Lie. Hope Yen & Calvin Woodward of the AP run down a series of false & delusional remarks Trump has made in the past week. "... Donald Trump is imagining steel mill openings that aren't happening and in denial about Russia's role in the 2016 presidential election." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... To wit: Lisa Friedman of the New York Times: "In his first remarks on the vast California wildfires that have killed at least seven people and forced thousands to flee, President Trump blamed the blazes on the state's environmental policies and inaccurately claimed that water that could be used to fight the fires was 'foolishly being diverted into the Pacific Ocean.' State officials and firefighting experts dismissed the president's comments, which he posted on Twitter. 'We have plenty of water to fight these wildfires, but let's be clear: It's our changing climate that is leading to more severe and destructive fires,' said Daniel Berlant, assistant deputy director of Cal Fire, the state's fire agency.... California does not lack water to fight the Carr Fire and others burning across the state, officials said.... William Stewart, a forestry specialist at the University of California, Berkeley, said he believed Mr. Trump was referring to the battle over allocating water to irrigation versus providing river habitat for fish. That debate has no bearing on the availability of water for firefighting." ...

... OR, as Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times puts it: "In a strikingly ignorant tweet, Trump gets almost everything about California wildfires wrong. No one would mistake President Trump for an expert on climate change or water policy, but a tweet he issued late Sunday about California's wildfires deserves some sort of award for most glaring misstatements about those two issues in the smallest number of words." Hiltzik debunks Trump's politically-motivated nonsense claims. "The sole nugget of fact in Trump's tweet may be found in its final line, which states, 'Must also tree clear to stop fire spreading!' This isn't exactly placed in cogent or coherent thought, so it's possible it's a truth nugget of the blind squirrel variety. If Trump means 'tree clear' to mean more logging, then he's merely putting his oar in for more commercial exploitation of the forests. If he means the construction of fire breaks to contain fires, that's correct but it's a well understood technique and is exactly the technique being applied as a matter of course."

Sad! Ryan Parker & Abid Rahman of the Hollywood Reporter: "West Hollywood City Council has voted 'unanimously' to approve a resolution urging Los Angeles City Council and the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce to permanently remove Donald Trump's Walk of Fame star. The star, which was unveiled in 2007, has been vandalized numerous times and completely destroyed twice.... The staff report for the resolution lists numerous reasons for the matter, including the separation of children from their parents at the border, the denial of the impacts from climate change on the word, Trump's treatment of transgendered individuals and the denial of findings from the intelligence community of Russian interference in the 2016 election, among others. The approval of a resolution urging the removal of Trump's star, however, does not necessarily mean that L.A. City Council and the Hollywood Chamber of Commerce will follow through."

Franklin Foer, in the Atlantic, writes a long, deep piece on ICE. It's one of the worst federal agencies to work for, populated by employees who couldn't get jobs in more prestigious agencies like the FBI. Then Trump, Sessions, Miller & Co. came along & weaponized these jamokes (who endorsed Trump in the general election), who didn't have enough to do when President Obama established enforcement priorities that ICE officers viewed as "handcuffs." "Even in a time when GOP policy on immigration had swung far to the right, these staffers -- Stephen Miller, now a White House senior adviser, is the most famous of the bunch -- existed far outside the party's mainstream."

But will they wear long pants?Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Sen. Rand Paul, who has supported ... Donald Trump's effort to improve relations with Russia, announced Monday that Russian lawmakers have agreed to visit the U.S. Capitol. 'Engagement is vital to our national security and peace around the world,' Paul (R-Ky.) said in a statement. He is currently in Moscow meeting with Russian officials...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Congressional Races

Margaret Hartmann: "Republicans have held Ohio's 12th Congressional District for decades, but recent polling shows Tuesday's special election is now a toss up. Though the GOP has little room for error, that did not prevent President Trump from initially tweeting his endorsement for the wrong candidate, and then picking a fight with NBA superstar LeBron James, Ohio's favorite native son, hours before a rally in support of GOP candidate Troy Balderson. But Balderson might have found a way to outdo the president. During his final campaign stop on Monday night, Balderson told a crowd in Zanesville, Ohio that they need to get out and vote tomorrow because 'we don't want someone from Franklin County representing us.' Balderson's opponent, Democrat Danny O'Connor, is from Franklin County -- but so are about a third of the district's voters." Harry Enten tweeted, "To put Balderson's comments ... in some perspective, imagine an NYC mayoral candidate saying 'we don't want someone from Brooklyn!' Brooklyn makes up a similar share of NYC vote as Franklin does of OH-12 vote." Mrs. McC: Also, Balderson was wearing shorts when he said it. Must take his sartorial cues from Little Randy.

So Much Winning -- in GOP Primary Races. Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Since the beginning of June, President Trump's been on a remarkable political run. There have been 11 contests in which he's made an endorsement, and in each of those 11 races his preferred candidate has won.... They were all Republican primary contests. In other words, Trump's batting 11-for-11 since June in races where only members of his party can vote.... The problem for Trump is that his track record in non-primaries is much worse. He has endorsed in four Democrat-vs.-Republican matchups as president -- and lost three of the four. The only one in which his endorsed candidate won was Rep. Karen Handel's special election victory in Georgia in June of last year. His endorsed candidates for Virginia governor, Alabama Senate and a special House race in Pennsylvania all lost.... before his endorsement of Roy Moore in Alabama turned into a debacle for the ages, Trump would regularly tout how well Republicans were doing in special elections."

Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "President Trump turned aside the advice of party officials and intervened in the Kansas Republican primary for governor Monday, throwing his support behind the polarizing secretary of state, Kris Kobach, one day before voters go to the polls there. In a tweet that Republican governors and some of his own aides had sought to avert, Mr. Trump called Mr. Kobach 'a fantastic guy' and offered his 'full & total endorsement.' Mr. Kobach is running against Gov. Jeff Colyer, who succeeded Sam Brownback, and a handful of other Republicans in a contest that had been highly competitive. But Mr. Trump's blessing is now likely to lift Mr. Kobach, who is best known for his hard-line views on immigration and voting rights. The Republican Governors Association and a number of high-level party operatives counseled Mr. Trump against siding with Mr. Kobach, because polls show he is unpopular with the general electorate.... But Mr. Trump has grown fond of his king-making abilities.... Further, Mr. Kobach was an early and loyal supporter of Mr. Trump...."

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Brian Feldman of New York: "On Sunday, dedicated conspiracy theorists with iPhones searching for podcasts from ... Alex Jones and his media empire Infowars were stymied: Apple had removed five Infowars podcasts from iTunes and its Podcasts app. Within hours..., Facebook and YouTube both removed the official Infowars pages from their platforms.... Facebook and YouTube have acted as megaphones for Infowars (and reaped the benefits in the process) -- choosing to cut ties with the site and the millions of subscribers those accounts held, after months of pressure from consumers, employees, and victims of Jones's conspiracy-mongering.... The reason that every other platform booted Jones is because Apple did it first.... What the Infowars decisions represent is a capitulation -- not to censors, not to the public, not to the deep state, but to the only entity left that has any real power over Facebook and YouTube: Apple." ...

... Elijah Cone of Crooked: "Facebook has become a media outlet -- and, through the manipulative efforts of conservative activists, a grossly irresponsible, right-wing media outlet.... Facebook's efforts to appease right-wing critics have distorted the outlet's political influence in many obvious ways.... Facebook has the capacity to distinguish between fact and falsehood, journalism and disinformation, reason and incitement, peace and violence, and turn down the volume on the latter. It can distinguish between people who use the word 'fuck,' and people who engage in slander. It chooses not to because those distinctions ... would disfavor a right-wing media culture that embraces conspiracy theories and lies. The result is an output that places content creators who care about truth at a disadvantage, and makes Facebook a useful tool for propagandists." ...

... Tribe GOP. Zack Beauchamp of Vox: "These men, named James T. Alicie and Richard M. Birchfield, are a perfect encapsulation of the way Donald Trump has transformed the Republican Party in his image -- abandoning its traditional positions on issues ranging from Russia to trade in favor of Trump's positions on these issues. The photo is also an extremely clear way of understanding how deep hatred of Democrats is warping the Republican Party, part of a phenomenon political scientists call 'negative partisanship.'... The crucial feature about negative partisanship is that it isn't really about policy; it's about identity.... Hence why, over the course of four years, you go from Republican voters enthusiastically backing Mitt Romney -- who called Russia America's 'No. 1 geopolitical enemy' -- to the vast majority of them supporting Donald Trump through the Russia scandal.... The partisan stars have aligned such that Republicans are dismissing what's shaping up to be the biggest political scandal since Watergate -- and embracing Vladimir Putin even as he's already begun to meddle in the 2018 midterm elections." ...

... Ryan Broderick of BuzzFeed News: "It's Looking Extremely Likely That QAnon Is A Leftist Prank On Trump Supporters." Broderick posts some of the circumstantial evidence for this theory. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

Way Beyond the Beltway

Steven Chase of the (Canadian) Globe & Mail: "Saudi Arabia has expelled Canada's ambassador and frozen new trade deals with [Canada] in a growing dispute over the Canadian government's criticism of human-rights violations in the Islamic kingdom. This comes in the wake of statements by Foreign Affairs Minister Chrystia Freeland and her department last week where Ottawa called on the Saudis to release arrested civil-rights activists and signalled concern at a new crackdown in the Mideast country. In public statements on Sunday, Riyadh gave Canadian ambassador Dennis Horak 24 hours to leave the country and recalled its own envoy." (Also linked yesterday.)

News Lede

Los Angeles Times: "Firefighters in Northern California were beginning to gain ground Tuesday against a record-breaking wildfire in Lake County, as firefighters across the state continued their battles with 18 blazes that have scorched nearly 600,000 acres. The Mendocino Complex fire, which became the largest wildfire in California history on Monday night, had burned more than 290,000 acres as of Tuesday morning, officials said. The sprawling blaze, which is actually a combination of the Ranch and River fires in Lake County, has frustrated firefighters as it continues to leap natural and man-made barriers. The Thomas fire, which scorched 281,000 acres in Ventura and Santa Barbara counties last year, had been the largest wildfire in state history before Monday night -- a dubious distinction it held for just eight months. Prolonged drought and extreme heat have made California ripe for dangerous fire conditions in recent months and years. Of the five largest wildfires in state history, four have occurred since 2012."