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The Commentariat -- October 7, 2016
Afternoon Update:
New York Times Hurricane Update: "Hurricane Matthew churned north along the coast of Florida on Friday, and state officials and forecasters shifted their focus to the danger of serious damage in Jacksonville later in the day. The hurricane stayed just far enough offshore to spare Central Florida a direct hit, and it weakened slightly overnight, but it was still a powerful Category 3 storm with winds of about 120 miles per hour." --CW ...
... Weather Channel reports are here.
Mr. Trump Goes to Washington. Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times has more on that time young Donald lobbied Congress to make him richer: "He even said that the recession had been caused by President Ronald Reagan's 1986 tax overhaul -- a conclusion few economists shared -- and could be ended only by allowing investor dollars to flow easily back into real estate. Mr. Trump even argued against the very basis of the policy: The best way to get a recovery, he said, was to raise income taxes on wealthy people, to prod them to invest again in syndicated real estate deals." See Steve Mufson & Max Ehrenfreund's WashPo story linked below.
Robert Bateman of Esquire on three US ships that are traveling, probably through Hurricane Matthew, to provide aid to Haiti. "Apply this as you see fit." CW: Alas, I have no doubt that some or perhaps a majority of the Marines on this mission will not see fit to apply their own heroism in a appropriate way to the political issues of the day.
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The Miami Herald is constantly updating hurricane-related stories linked on its front page & is allowing unlimited access to all stories. ...
... Renae Merle & Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "Packing winds of 120 mph, Hurricane Matthew lashed Florida's coast Friday after mass evacuations and state-of-emergency preparations ahead of the strongest storm system to hit the United States in a decade. Matthew's eye took aim at the shoreline just south of Cape Canaveral, bringing pounding surf, storm surges and possibly up to a foot of rain in some areas after Matthew roared through the Caribbean leaving widespread destruction and nearly 300 dead in Haiti, with some reports saying the toll there was much higher.... [Florida Gov. Rick] Scott said during a briefing Friday morning that more than 600,000 people lacked power due to the storm." -- CW ...
... Jason Samenow of the Washington Post: "A highly-populated, vast stretch of Florida's east coast faces its most extreme hurricane threat in modern history. Computer model forecasts have converged on the idea that Hurricane Matthew, which is intensifying, will directly strike the area between roughly West Palm Beach and the Georgia border. Packing maximum winds of 140 mph and stronger gusts, Matthew is poised to become the first Category 4 or stronger storm to make landfall in this region since records began in 1851.... It is likely to become a multibillion-dollar disaster given all of the infrastructure in its path." -- CW ...
... CW: Maybe you thought Florida Gov. Rick Scott sounded like a normal concerned governor as he urged Floridians to get out of the path of Hurricane Matthew. But he's still Lex Luthor. Patricia Mazzei & Kristen Clark of the Miami Herald: "Florida rejected a request Thursday from Hillary Clinton's campaign chief to extend the state's voter-registration deadline due to Hurricane Matthew. 'I'm not going to extend it,' Gov. Rick Scott told reporters in Tallahassee. 'Everybody has had a lot of time to register. On top of that, we have lots of opportunities to vote: early voting, absentee voting, Election Day. So I don't intend to make any changes.'" ... See also Rick Hasen's commentary, linked under Other News & Views.
... White House: "The President [Thursday] declared an emergency exists in the State of Florida and ordered federal aid to supplement state, tribal, and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Matthew beginning on October 3, 2016, and continuing." -- CW: Thursday afternoon, & we're already getting hurricane-related rain & wind in Fort Myers, on the Southwest Coast, which is nowhere near the projected point on landfall. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Joshua Partow & Brian Murphy of the Washington Post: "The death toll from Hurricane Matthew soared above 100 Thursday as the scope of the devastation in Haiti became clearer, officials said. Aid workers found vast numbers of damaged homes, as well as uprooted palm trees, toppled cellphone towers and downed power lines. Two days after the hurricane slammed into the Western Hemisphere's poorest nation with winds reaching 145 miles per hour, thousands of Haitians remained without power, communications or clean water. Aid groups warned that cholera could spread quickly, adding to the humanitarian crisis." -- CW ...
... The known death toll in Haiti has now reached nearly 300. -- CW
Presidential Race
As a vast weather event, exacerbated by climate change, strikes the East Coast of the U.S., Paul Krugman writes: "... there is a huge, incredibly consequential divide on climate policy. Not only is there a vast gap between the parties and their candidates, but this gap arguably matters more for the future than any of their other disagreements. So why don't we hear more about it?... It's really stunning that in the three nationally televised forums we've had so far -- the 'commander in chief' forum involving Mrs. Clinton and Mr. Trump, the first presidential debate and the vice-presidential debate -- the moderators have asked not a single question about climate. This was especially striking in Tuesday's debate.... It's time to end the [media] blackout on climate change as an issue." -- CW ...
... AND former Nebraska Sen. Bob Kerrey (D) wants the media to ask the rich, aged candidates more questions about Social Security, which Congress has set up to fail younger workers. -- CW
Why Aren't Americans Richer? Short Answer: Republicans. Simon Rosenberg in US News: "While median income is only $3,000 higher today than in 1989, it has not moved on a straight line.... It fell under President George H.W. Bush, rose steadily under President Bill Clinton, flatlined and then dropped under the second Bush, then declined as a result of the Great Recession and is now steadily rising again under President Barack Obama. By the end of this year incomes are likely to be 10 percent higher than they were at their recent nadir in 2012, and grew more in 2015 than in any single year of the modern era.... Other economic data from this period follow similar trend lines -- the annual deficit grew under both Bushes, and dramatically improved under Clinton and Obama. The unemployment rate rose under both Bushes, and fell during Clinton and Obama. The stock market had a modest rise under the first Bush, fell under the second and had explosive growth under Clinton and Obama. Three million net new jobs were created in the two Bush presidencies. Thirty million were created under Clinton and Obama." ...
... CW: The facts are why Republican rubes don't trust "scientists with their charts & graphs." Show Rosenberg's simple graphs to a Trumpbot, & he'll tell you all eggheads are liars, or if he's (Warning! oxymoron follows) a fair-minded Trumpbot, he'll say, "Yeah, but the jobs are all going to 'those people.' My cousin lost his job because ... [blah-blah] Affirmative Action [blah-blah] illegals." See also the stories linked below on Trump's 20th-century tax schemes. There are reasons ordinary Americans -- and the general economy -- do better when Democrats are in control.
Laurie Goodstein of the New York Times: "... a group of more than 75 evangelical leaders has released a declaration ... on the website Change.org on Thursday, accuses Mr. Trump of fueling racism and religious bigotry, and of denigrating women.... 'Racism is America's original sin,' the statement says. 'Its brazen use to win elections threatens to reverse real progress on racial equity and set America back.' The declaration does not extend support to Hillary Clinton, noting that she is 'both supported and distrusted by a variety of Christian voters.'" -- CW
Jesse Byrnes & Rebecca Savransky of the Hill: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt. hammered Donald Trump over his business record Thursday in a pitch to blue collar voters on behalf of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton. Sanders argued during a rally for Clinton in Dearborn, Mich., that the GOP nominee 'is manufacturing his ties in China, his clothing in Mexico, his furniture in Turkey.'... Sanders went after Trump for using 'manufacturing plants in Bangladesh' and accused the New York businessman of "exploiting poor people" by using cheap labor overseas. The independent Vermont senator is campaigning for Clinton on Thursday in Michigan, where he pulled out an upset win over her in the Democratic presidential primary in March." -- CW (Also linked yesterday.)
** Washington Post Editors: "The scope of the damage a President Trump could do cannot be fully predicted or imagined. His candidacy forces us to confront the extent to which democracy depends on leaders adhering to a set of norms and traditions -- civic virtues, to be old-fashioned about it. Mr. Trump has made clear his contempt for those virtues, norms and traditions: He despises the press, threatens his enemies, bullies the judiciary, disparages entire religions and nations, makes no distinction between his personal interest and the public good, hides information that should be revealed and routinely trades in falsehoods. Handed the immense powers of the presidency, what could such a man do? The honest answer: No one can be sure.... The nation should not subject itself to such a risk." CW: I'm not much of a fan of the Post's editorial board, but they have done very good work in explaining what a danger Trump presents to the nation.
Today in Donald Trump Consiracy Theories. Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "The federal government is allowing illegal immigrants to flow into the U.S. so they can vote, Donald Trump alleged Friday, fueling his own argument that November's presidential election will be rigged against him. At a roundtable Friday morning inside Trump Tower, a border patrol official told the Republican presidential nominee that agents have been advised not to deport illegal immigrants with criminal records, according to a pool report." -- CW
Shane Goldmacher of Politico: Republicans hoped a fake townhall-style meeting Trump recently scheduled in New Hampshire would serve as a sort of debate prep for Sunday's official fake townhall. It didn't. "'They were saying this is practice for Sunday,' [Trump] told the crowd in speech before the so-called town-hall. 'This isn't practice. This has nothing to do with Sunday.... 'I said forget debate prep. I mean, give me a break,' Trump said at one point. 'Do you really think that Hillary Clinton is debate-prepping for three or four days. Hillary Clinton is resting, okay?'... The format was nothing like what Trump will face in St Louis.... Yet even without the duress of an opponent, independent moderators and anything but softball questions from supporters, Trump struggled to drive any type of cohesive message, either about himself as a change agent or Clinton's shortcomings." -- CW ...
... Greg Sargent sort of implies that the future of the planet depends upon whether one screaming narcissist can exhibit some self-control for 90 minutes Sunday night. Sargent provides a video of Trump's inability to do that in the fake townhall. -- CW ...
... Jenna Johnson of the Washington Post: Donald Trump "appeared more controlled on the campaign trail on Wednesday and Thursday than he was last week, sticking with scripted speeches, mostly avoiding interviews and sending tweets that appeared to have been closely edited, if not entirely composed, by his staff. He denounced interruptions during debates, announced plans to campaign with House Speaker Paul D. Ryan in Wisconsin on Saturday and said he would avoid mentioning Bill Clinton's affairs during Sunday's town hall with Hillary Clinton in St. Louis." CW: This is the first election cycle I can recall where it was front-page news that a major-party presidential candidate did not say something incredibly wacky.
... But Wait, There's More. Johnson of the WashPo: "In the moments that Trump went off-script, stumbles returned. At a rally in Reno, Nev., on Wednesday night, Trump bragged about being able to properly pronounce the state's name and proceeded to mispronounce it. In an interview with a local television station, he seemed unfamiliar with a pivotal state issue -- the storage of nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain -- and said that if China and the United States became engaged in a trade war that hurt Trump's hotel in Las Vegas and other tourism businesses, he would 'cut off relationships with China.'" ...
... CW: That is, even though Trump has claimed he would put his business in a (ha ha "blind trust" run by his children), he would wreak international havoc if his businesses suffered. The United States of Trump would become just an arm of Trump, Inc., albeit a massive one. With a military. And nuclear arms.
** Jessie Drucker of Bloomberg: "The really big tax benefit available to Trump isn[t that he could take massive deductions after losing a ton of money. It's that he could lose other people's money -- but claim the deductions for himself." Not only that, Trump took advantage of tax laws not available to average Americans whose incomes fluctuate across years. ...
... CW: If you want to know how Congress let this happen, read Drucker's piece in conjunction with Mufson & Ehrenfreund's. Not only were Trump's tax breaks no accident, Trump himself (no doubt with the aid of his tax guys) helped create the legislation that privileged him over ordinary Americans. And of course he's lying about it now. ...
... That Was Then, This Is Fake. Steven Mufson & Max Ehrenfreund of the Washington Post: In 1991, Donald Trump lobbied Congress for a combination of higher tax rates for the rich and the restoration of special exemptions for real estate investment. Together, they would compel people seeking to lower their tax bills to invest in real estate. Trump called for accelerated epreciation of property and rules that encouraged certain investors to seek out 'passive losses' that could offset their other income and slash their steep tax bills.... The benefits became part of a suite of tax breaks that have buoyed the real estate industry and the wealthy developers behind it, [and undid a 1986 law "that streamlined tax brackets, cut rates, closed loopholes and eliminated tax breaks. President Reagan declared it 'a sweeping victory for fairness.'... [Today Trump] has invoked Reagan's tax legacy as a model for a new 'revolution.'... That sentiment is at odds with his 1991 House testimony...." -- CW ...
... CW P.S.: If you're all shocked that Congress bought Trump's argument, remember that he boasts about buying politicians.
Ben Schreckinger & Julia Ioffe in Politico: "A Republican lobbyist was earning hundreds of thousands of dollars to promote one of Vladimir Putin's top geopolitical priorities at the same time he was helping to shape Donald Trump's first major foreign policy speech. In the first two quarters of 2016, the firm of former Reagan administration official Richard Burt received $365,000 for work he and a colleague did to lobby for a proposed natural-gas pipeline owned by a firm controlled by the Russian government, according to congressional & lobbying disclosures.... The pipeline, opposed by the Polish government and the Obama administration, would allow Russian gas to reach central and western European markets while bypassing Ukraine and Belarus, extending Putin's leverage over Europe.... This spring, Burt helped shape Trump's first major foreign policy address, according to Burt and other sources.... The revelation of Burt's lobbying activity raises new questions about Russian influence in Trump's campaign." -- CW
Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "A group of 30 former GOP lawmakers signed a blistering open letter to Republicans on Thursday, warning that Donald Trump lacks the 'intelligence' and temperament to be president and urging the party to reject the Republican presidential nominee at the polls on Nov. 8." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Trump Family Values. Erin Corbett of the Raw Story: Eric Trump appeared on a radio program with ties to white nationalist James Edwards on Wednesday, proving yet again that the Trump campaign doesn't seem too concerned about its image, according to Right Wing Watch. He's the second Trump to do so.... After appearing on 'Liberty Roundtable' with [Sam] Bushman and Edwards earlier this year, Donald Jr. was under fire for agreeing to speak on the show with the white nationalist.... [Junior] denied knowing that Edwards would be on the show or that he had any knowledge of his background.... [Bushman syndicates Edwards' radio show.] Now that Eric spoke on the same radio talk show on which his brother appeared, it would seem that the Trump campaign isn't even trying to distance itself from the white nationalist movement." -- CW
Meet Your Trump Supporter. Matt Drudge -- Weather Is a Clinton Conspiracy. Eric Levitz of New York: "... Matt Drudge is concerned that this 'impending hurricane' narrative is a bit too convenient: One minute, Obama says climate change is real and could increase the frequency of extreme weather events; several years and hurricanes later, another extreme weather event appears just as Hillary Clinton is campaigning to succeed him.... As Vox's Libby Nelson notes, the Drudge Report then sent out [a] tweet, [to 'prove' the hurricane stories were hypes,] which links to an article that says nothing about the storm fizzling. ...
... Wait, Wait, There's More. It's a VAST Left-Wing Conspiracy. Will Oremus of Slate: "Lest anyone get the mistaken impression that this was pure, shameless, and dangerously uninformed speculation on Drudge's part, he followed this up by lodging some more specific allegations of meteorological misconduct. The National Weather Service, it turns out, is a secretive cabal whose members hoard the real weather data so that they can cook up fake forecasts to hoodwink the public into evacuating their homes for no reason.... Lest you think these are the delusional ramblings of a lone wingnut, my colleague Ben Mathis-Lilley points out that Rush Limbaugh has espoused almost exactly the same theory. ...
... CW: Do tell us, gentlemen -- is this all click-bait & ratings, or have you old boys begun to drool in your own soup?
MEANWHILE, Gary Johnson cannot name the leader of North Korea. Also dings Clinton for knowing too much & something about Syria, which has Aleppo in it. CW: I guess this is a good time to celebrate the wisdom of the editors & publishers of the Chicago Tribune, the New Hampshire Union Leader & other conservative newspapers who have endorsed Johnson.
Other News & Views
Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post: Because of the Supreme Court's 2013 Shelby County v. Holder ruling, "the Justice Department is significantly reducing the number of federal observers stationed inside polling places in next month's election at the same time that voters will face strict new election laws in more than a dozen states. These laws, including requirements to present certain kinds of photo identification, are expected to lead to disputes at the polls. Adding to the potential for confusion..., Donald Trump has called for his supporters to police the polls themselves for fraud.... The court said Congress has to come up with a new formula based on current data to determine which states should be subject to federal oversight. Congress has not yet acted.... The Justice Department said it will release a phone number and email address for voters to contact if they experience intimidation or harassment." -- CW ...
Rebecca Lai & Jasmine Lee of the New York Times: "One of every 40 American adults cannot vote in November's election because of state laws that bar people with past felony convictions from casting ballots. Experts say racial disparities in sentencing have had a disproportionate effect on the voting rights of blacks and Hispanics.... State laws that bar voting vary widely. Three swing states -- Florida, Iowa and Virginia -- have some of the harshest laws; they impose a lifetime voting ban on felons, although their voting rights can be restored on a case-by-case basis by a governor or a court. On the other end of the spectrum, Maine and Vermont place no restrictions on people with felony convictions, allowing them to vote while incarcerated.... The margin of victory in Florida in the 2000 presidential election between Al Gore and George W. Bush, for example, was 537 votes. An estimated 600,000 people in the state had completed their prison sentences but were not allowed to vote." -- CW (Also linked yesterday.) ...
... Rick Hasen in Slate: "... it would be a terrible perfect storm if the election again came down to Florida, but this time without a Supreme Court majority standing in the wings to end the dispute.... Litigation may begin even before the storm ends, with Democrats pushing to extend registration deadlines in Florida since Gov. Scott has said he will not extend them on his own.... With Trump's uncertainty about whether he would concede a close election to Clinton, this is a nightmare in the making." U.S. Senate Note to Judge Merrick Garland: "We have extended our commitment not to fill the position for which you applied." -- CW
Sari Horwitz: "President Obama granted clemency to another 102 inmates Thursday as he continued to release federal inmates serving long prison terms for nonviolent drug offenses. Obama has now commuted the sentences of 774 federal inmates, more than the previous 11 presidents combined. With 590 commutations this year, he has commuted the most individuals' sentences in one year in U.S. history, White House officials said. They said Obama will continue granting commutations to federal drug offenders through the remainder of his time in office." -- CW
Caitlin Dickerson of the New York Times: "The Obama administration is delaying deportation proceedings for recent immigrants in cities across the United States, allowing more than 56,000 of those who fled Central America since 2014 to remain in the country legally for several more years. The shift, described in interviews with immigration lawyers, federal officials, and current and former judges, has been occurring without public attention for months. It amounts to an unannounced departure from the administration's widely publicized pronouncements that cases tied to the so-called surge of 2014 would be rushed through the immigration courts in an effort to deter more Central Americans from entering the United States illegally." -- CW
Matthew Teague of the Guardian: "The federal government is investigating prisons throughout Alabama in an inquiry that is 'possibly unprecedented'. The investigation comes after a series of strikes and riots that have revealed the state's prisons are in turmoil. 'It's a giant investigation. This is rare,' said Lisa Graybill, a staff attorney for the Southern Poverty Law Center, which is conducting an investigation of its own. Previously Graybill worked for the federal unit that will investigate Alabama, and said the closest comparison in memory was an examination of Puerto Rico's juvenile jails." CW: Another example of the federal government's spending your tax dollars wisely; i.e., another project President Trump would "end on Day One."
Why Paul Ryan, et al., Endorsed Donald Trump. Ed Kilgore: "Reportedly angry that Beltway types were yawning at his plans for 2017 on the grounds that the usual gridlock would stop anything major from happening, the House Speaker [Paul Ryan] held a presser to explain how he could cram a generation's worth of legislation into a budget reconciliation bill that cannot be filibustered.... Democrats can whine about it, but if the GOP wins the trifecta in November, they will not be able to do a thing. So a future reconciliation bill would not only cripple Obamacare and strip millions of Americans of health coverage obtained via the exchanges, but also kill the Medicaid expansion and throw millions more out of coverage.... [Donald Trump has] given us no reason whatsoever to think he'd pause before rubber-stamping a bill that kills Obamacare and gets rid of all that 'welfare' crap his supporters hate -- while giving people like himself a historic tax cut billed as a job-generator." -- CW
Ben Protess of the New York Times: "Nearly five years after Jon S. Corzine [D that sued him have struck a tentative agreement to settle the case, according to people briefed on the matter. The agency, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which sued Mr.Corzine in 2013 over MF Global's collapse and misuse of $1 billion in customer money, could announce a deal by the end of this year if the agency’s three commissioners approve it." CW: One more bump in the path of our quest to answer the age-old question, "Why are New Jersey governors so great?"
Sharon Otterman & Samantha Schmidt of the New York Times: "The Archdiocese of New York has established an independent compensation commission that will allow victims of sexual abuse by clergy to apply for monetary compensation from the church, even for abuse claims that are decades old, church leaders said Thursday. The commission will be headed by Kenneth R. Feinberg, who ran the federal Sept. 11 victims fund. It will have independent authority to determine eligibility for the awards and their amounts, church officials said. The archdiocese said it would borrow the money to pay for the awards, which could easily run into the millions." -- CW
Beyond the Beltway
CBS News, New York: "Federal investigators said preliminary information revealed that a NJ TRANSIT train that crashed into Hoboken's terminal was going twice the speed limit at the moment of impact. The National Transportation Safety Board also said the train's engineer hit the emergency brake less than a second before the crash. The information was gleaned from data recorders aboard the train.... CBS2's Jessica Layton reports the NTSB said the train was traveling at 8 mph and sped up for about 30 seconds before hitting 21 mph. That's a complete contradiction of what engineer Thomas Gallagher told investigators over the weekend as he said he believed the train was going 10 mph." -- CW
Tim Egan: "A clear majority of Americans now favor pot legalization. The problem is the federal government, which still classifies marijuana as a Schedule 1 drug, alongside heroin and L.S.D. If pot was legalized nationwide, with a tax on every sale designated for treatment, it would free up the police to get at serious crimes, while ensuring that no addict would be denied treatment for lack of funds. As with most social reforms, it only seems impossible until it's obvious." -- CW
Way Beyond
Nicholas Casey of the New York Times: "The president of Colombia was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday for pursuing a deal to end 52 years of conflict with a leftist rebel group, the longest-running war in the Americas, just five days after Colombians rejected the agreement in a shocking referendum result. The decision to give the prize to the Colombian president, Juan Manuel Santos, may revive hopes for the agreement with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, with whom the country has been waging the last major guerrilla struggle in Latin America." -- CW
News Lede
Washington Post: "The U.S. economy added 156,000 new jobs in September, government data showed Friday morning, as companies maintained their steady pace of hiring. The unemployment rate ticked up from 4.9 to 5 percent, largely because the labor force swelled with scores of new would-be workers -- a sign that Americans are growing confident enough to come in from the sideline." -- CW
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