The Commentariat -- November 2

... You've probably already seen the 15-second spot above, urging us to vote. The DNC, Ben Smith writes, is "blanketing the web with $2.5 million worth of online ads -- I think the largest online ad buy anyone has made this cycle."

New York Times reporters are taking questions about the election now, some of which they will answer beginning at about noon ET Tuesday.

Politico has the latest independent polling data for house races as well as for key Senate & gubernatorial races.

Nate Silver has up-to-date election result forecasts here.

The major papers' front-page election-day observations: New York Times, Washington Post, Chicago Tribune, Los Angeles Times, Houston Chronicle, Wall Street Journal. AND from the wire services: Associated Press and Reuters.

"The War the Election Forgot." Faye Fiore & Mark Barabak of the Los Angeles Times: "In this turbulent election season — amid the talk of 'tea parties' and the economy and President Obama's approval rating and the fight to control Congress and bailouts and deficits and fear and anger — there is little mention of Afghanistan or Iraq."

Dana Milbank riffs on professional election prognosticators. Milbank thinks the best bet is to wait for the actual results.

On the Hill, there's this sense that there are three [political] parties, the president, Democrats in Congress and Republicans in Congress. -- House Democratic political strategist, a/k/a Anonymous ...

** ... Peter Wallsten & Jonathan Weisman of the Wall Street Journal: "Some high-level Democrats are calling for President Barack Obama to remake his [communications team] or even fire top advisers.... Some Democrats were so unhappy with the White House [strategy] meetings, they started their own. Among the complaints: Mr. Obama conveyed an incoherent message that didn't express what Democrats would do over the next two years if they retain power; he focused more on his own image than helping Democratic candidates; and the White House picked the wrong battle when it attacked Republicans for using 'outside' money to pay for campaigns, an issue disconnected from voters' real-world anxieties."

AP: "Republicans outperformed Democrats getting to the polls in Nevada, a promising sign for Republican tea party favorite Sharron Angle in her dead-heat race with Majority Leader Harry Reid, figures showed Monday. Final tallies for two weeks of in-person voting and a preliminary count of mail-in ballots for the state's two most populous counties, Clark and Washoe, gave Democrats about a 9,000-voter edge. The slim margin stands out because Democrats hold a 60,000-voter edge in statewide registration." ...

Screenshot from Angle's "Amnesty Game" page.More last-minute hilarity from Amanda Terkel of the Huffington Post: "Toymaker Hasbro has sent Sharron Angle's Senate campaign a cease and desist letter, saying the Nevada Republican never received permission to use the rights to Monopoly for its "Harry Reid Amnesty Game" website." As of 10:45 am ET, the Angle site was still up.

... Meanwhile, in nearby Colorado, on the eve of the election Sarah Palin endorses xenophobic loon Tom Tancredo for governor.

Campus Progress gives us a reason to vote (this is a spoof on a conservative ad that YouTube took down because of copyright violation claims):

Michael Kinsley in Politico: "This conceit that we’re the greatest country ever may be self-immolating. If people believe it’s true, they won’t do what’s necessary to make it true."

"Young Republicans with axes! New York firemen run amok!" Adam Goodheart, in a New York Times op-ed: You think this election cycle is characterized by a lack of civility? "Welcome to election week, 1860"!

Absurdity Is Reality. On one of Krugman's posts some weeks back, I hypothesized, mostly in jest, that tea partiers who railed against President Obama's "Keynesian economics" were really expressing their opposition to his "Kenyan economics." Maybe tea partiers are smarter than the people who rallied for sanity last Saturday. In any event, watch this video of Andy Cobb of Second City interviewing folks who attended the Rally to Restore Sanity:

Bob Herbert: "... political scientists Jacob Hacker of Yale and Paul Pierson of the University of California, Berkeley, argue persuasively that the economic struggles of the middle and working classes in the U.S. since the late-1970s were not primarily the result of globalization and technological changes but rather a long series of policy changes in government that overwhelmingly favored the very rich." ...

... I think my pal Karen Garcia has made the smartest observation of the day in her comment (#6) on Herbert's column:

We're finally beginning to realize that the two-party system - indeed, the whole three-part government system of checks and balances - has collapsed into itself to form one plutocratic whole.

The corporations run the executive branch, the legislative branch and now the judicial branch with the Citizens United case - which has given corporations their own human rights status. Even the so-called "fourth estate" of a free press has begun to be subsumed by the propaganda machine of News Corp and other media conglomerates. -- Karen Garcia

Darrin Bell finds a couple of guys who agree to disagree. Is this what Jon Stewart had in mind?

Click image to enlarge.

ABC News Gets Its Just Desserts. Greg Sargent. "Andrew Breitbart ... is now accusing the network of lying about whether they had tapped him to do on-air election night analysis. ABC News ... adamantly denied Breitbart's latest attack. But it appears he will still have some kind of role with ABC's coverage. This is worth noting, because it shows how insane it is for any serious news organization to play footsie with this guy." ...

... Eric Boehlert of Media Matters remarks that ABC News execs & Breitbart are feuding over the meaning of their e-mailed correspondence. Boehlert asks, "If ABC doesn't think Breitbart can read emails, why do they want him to comment on Tuesday night's election results?"

The Commentariat -- November 1

"Crazy Carl" Paladino, New York's Republican gubernatorial candidate, walks out on a live CNN interview after the host asks him if his remarks about Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand sexist:

Intrigue! Maggie Haberman & Jonathan Allen of Politico: "Bill Clinton’s recent attempts to suggest struggling Democrat Kendrick Meek should opt out of the Florida Senate race ... [were] only the culmination of a long, delicate, and occasionally testy string of stop-and-start talks that began months ago involving the Florida candidates [Meek & Charlie Crist], the former president, and political aides in the Obama White House, who sought Clinton's intervention as long ago as early spring."

More Intrigue! The Morgan Freeman Scandal. For a few days now, North Carolina Republican Congressional candidate B. J. Lawson has been claiming that actor Morgan Freeman did the voiceover for Lawson's campaign. The campaign even gave Ben Smith a story about how Freeman came to cut the ad for Lawson. Here's the ad. It surely sounds like Freeman:

     ... BUT Morgan Freeman's spokesperson Stan Rosenfeld sent Smith this categorical denial from Freeman:

These people are lying. I have never recorded any campaign ads for B.J. Lawson and I do not support his candidacy. And, no one who represents me ever has ever authorized the use of my name, voice or any other likeness in support of Mr. Lawson or his candidacy.

     ... Lawson's opponent, long-time Democratic Rep. David Price, says Lawson should "pull down the ads. “This is an unfortunate and desperate attempt to fool voters in the last hours of a campaign. By using Mr. Freeman’s good name, BJ Lawson has ruined his own, and he should be ashamed. Now the voters will decide whom they trust."

An inanimate conversation reminding you of why you want to vote:

Best closing campaign ad ever. Lee Fisher hasn't got a chance of becoming Ohio's next senator, but he would get my vote:

... AND this LeBron James ad for Nike ...

    ... inspired this terrific Fisher ad:

Constant Weader News Flash. Florida Sen. Bill Nelson (the real guy, not a recording) just called & urged me to vote for Alex Sink for governor & Rod Smith for lieutenant governor. Not a word about Senate candidate Kendrick Meek or any other Democratic candidates. ...

       ... Update: not a big deal, after all. Ben Smith of Politico checked it out & told me Nelson was working for the state party, which is prohibited from spending their money specifically mentioning candidates for federal offices...

When you engage in actual fighting, if victory is long in coming, then men's weapons will grow dull and their ardor will be dampened … if the campaign is protracted, the resources of the State will not be equal to the strain. Now, when your weapons are dulled, your ardor dampened, your strength exhausted and your treasure spent, other chieftains will spring up to take advantage of your extremity. Then no man, however wise, will be able to avert the consequences that must ensue... In war, then, let your great object be victory, not lengthy campaigns. -- Sun Tzu, with some advice for our own war lords, via Mark Thompson of Time

Bill Roggio of the Long War Journal: "A recently released al Qaeda martyrdom videotape ... reveal[s] that, in sharp contrast to the current, official assessment of top US intelligence officials, al Qaeda has an extensive network in Afghanistan as well as a deep bench of experienced leaders." Also via Mark Thompson

You can count on President Carter for a unique & insightful take:

This Is Disgusting. Lori Montgomery of the Washington Post: the latest White House strategy on tax cuts "... calls for permanent extension of cuts that benefit families earning less than $250,000 a year, and temporary extension of cuts on income above that amount." CW: just signal you're going to give away the store, then let Republicans make it even worse. The Obama Administration could scarcely be more tactically foolish or profligate.

"Mugged by the Debt Moralizers." Paul Krugman on American voters' misplaced anger: "... by rejecting fiscal stimulus and debt relief, they’re perpetuating high unemployment. They are, in effect, cutting off their own jobs to spite their neighbors. But they don’t know that." Krugman begins his column by quoting Rick Santelli's gramatically-challenged cri de coeur, which Krugman credits with inspiring the tea party movement: "How many of you people want to pay for your neighbor’s mortgage that has an extra bathroom and can’t pay their bills?" The Constant Weader doesn't quite agree with Krugman. Here's the short version of my response:

Washington politicians of both parties, whatever they say their principles are, don't have any. The jobs they want to save are their own. They do so by catering to the big money interests who fund their campaigns, and they feed the public a litany of platitudes they don't believe or intend to enact.

One thing you have to say for tea party members. They've figured that out. This election may be about punishment, as you argue, but I don't think it's the neighbors with extra bathrooms voters want to punish. I think voters want to punish the politicians -- politicians who have brought us to a place in which most of us are fearful we won't have even one pot to piss in.

Michael Muskal of the Los Angeles Times: non-voters will decide the midterm results. "According to an analysis by the Pew Research Center..., there likely will be more non-voters this year than voters.... The survey shows that those who choose not to exercise their franchise likely will be younger, less educated and more financially stressed than those who call themselves likely voters. And, not surprisingly, those who choose not to vote could be considered more liberal than those who do."

Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times: "Republicans made their closing argument on Sunday for capturing control of Congress, assailing President Obama as a champion of wasteful and excessive government, as Democrats countered that returning power to Republicans would empower corporations and the wealthy with disastrous results for middle-class Americans."

Has Generation O Become Generation No? Damien Cave of the New York Times: "... former [young] Obama volunteers nationwide say that they and their former colleagues are less involved and more ambivalent. Experts say the usual midterm effect, in which young voters are especially likely to disengage, has combined with an unexpected distance that has arisen between Mr. Obama and his young constituents."

Matt Bai in The New York Times Magazine on the similarities between grass-roots activists on the left and right.

Ezra Klein in Newsweek: most politicians hate the money-grubbing system, but they won't change it because they're good at grubbing & the process is so undignified that it discourages dignified potential opponents.

James Hohmann & John Harris of Politico on why the candidates debates were so bad, the responses to questions so robotic & the attacks so vitriolic. AND they include a quote by Larry Sabato! *

Evan Osnos of The New Yorker on what the Chinese think of the American midterms: "From the Chinese perspective, Americans appear to be thrashing against the realities of a new era: faced with a sudden sense of weakness and global changes in power, Americans look unable to summon the energy or unity to make even the simplest self-sustaining choices, and instead, are seeking refuge in the tinny appeals and false comfort of demagogues."

Mike Allen & Jim VandeHei of Politico: "Top Republicans in Washington and in the national GOP establishment say the 2010 campaign highlighted an urgent task that they will begin in earnest as soon as the elections are over: Stop Sarah Palin.... Many of these establishment figures argue in not-for-attribution comments that Palin’s nomination would ensure President Barack Obama’s reelection, as the deficiencies that marked her 2008 debut as a vice presidential nominee — an intensely polarizing political style and often halting and superficial answers when pressed on policy — have shown little sign of abating...." ...

     ... Update. Ben Smith notes that SarahPAC is already using the Allen-VandeHei article as a fundraising tool. Here's the SarahPAC page. ...

Politico, Mike Allen and Jim VandeHei, they're jokes. This is a joke to have unnamed sources tearing somebody apart limb by limb. If they would man up and if they would, you know, make these claims against me then I can debate them, I can talk about it, but to me they're making stuff up again. I don't think the paper that we just printed this article on, you know, it's not worth even wrapping my King Salmon in. I'll just ignore this crap. -- Sarah Palin, on Fox "News," responding in her usual, statesman-like, presidenty way

Time's Adam Sorensen remembers Uncle Ted.

The Media Are the Message. In an opinion piece titled "Rally to Shift the Blame," David Carr of the New York Times criticizes Jon Stewart & Stephen Colbert for attacking the messenger; i.e., the media. ...

... NEW. Brian Stelter of the New York Times has final numbers for the Stewart-Colbert Sanity/Fear Rally.

Neil Irwin of the Washington Post: "The Federal Reserve is preparing to put its credibility on the line as it rarely has before by taking dramatic new action this week to try jolting the economy out of its slumber.... The meeting of Fed policymakers Tuesday and Wednesday is set to be a defining moment of Ben S. Bernanke's second term as chairman of the central bank. Although he helped win the war against the great financial panic of 2008 and 2009, he now risks losing the peace if he fails to end the protracted economic downturn that followed."

Steve Coll of The New Yorker provides some evidence that Julian Assange of WikiLeaks really is a little nutty & a little slutty.

New York Times reporters write that "The foiling of the [bomb] package plot was a significant success in an era of well-publicized intelligence breakdowns and miscommunications. It was also a sobering reminder ... that quick response to timely intelligence rules the day.... But the plot also points up holes in the system, particularly the security of cargo flights, that have already caused criticism abroad and are likely to rekindle new debates in the United States."

Don Lee of the Los Angeles Times: Millions of Americans are keeping up their payments on mortgages even though the values of their properties is less than their mortgage debts. "... with home prices stagnant in much of the country, payments on mortgages that are underwater could absorb billions of dollars that might be used for other forms of consumer spending — a drag on family finances, the housing market and the overall economy."

Ricardo Alonso-Zaldivar of the AP: "Fifty years after the pill, another birth control revolution may be on the horizon: free contraception for women in the U.S., thanks to the new health care law.... But first, look for a fight over social mores.... U.S. Catholic bishops say pregnancy is a healthy condition, not an illness. In comments filed with the Department of Health and Human Services, the bishops say they oppose any requirement to cover contraceptives or sterilization as preventive care."

* See Mark Francis Cohen in a 2005 American Journalism Review article titled "The Quote Machines." Cohen begins with Sabato's boast, "I'm probably the most quoted college professor in the land."

The Commentariat -- Scary Stories, Plus

CBS reporters are on tape saying, 'Let’s find a child molester in the crowd that supports Miller.... Those are corrupt bastards. -- Sarah Palin, keeping it classy on Fox "News" this morning

      ... Here's the video:

... Famous tape editor & ABC News "election analyst" Andrew Breitbart posts the purported tape & transcript. ...

     ... Update. Breitbart Punks Palin, et al. David Edwards & Daniel Tencer of the Raw Story: Fox "News" reporting undercuts Palin's, Breitbart's claims. With video. ...

     ... Greg Sargent: "Breitbart's Big Journalism site is making an incendiary accusation: That reporters at the Anchorage CBS affiliate KTVA were caught conspiring to damage Tea Party Senate candidate Joe Miller.... But it's unclear from the recording precisely what, if anything, was being plotted. And now the station is adamantly denying the charges." Here's the full statement from KTVA General Manager Jerry Bever. ...

     ... Update: David Brock of Media Matters: release the tapes, Gov. Palin.

... Even Palin's Tweets Are Getting Loonier. Brian Beutler of Talking Points Memo reports on one she probably wishes she (or her ghostwriter) hadn't sent.

Scary but True. Neela Banerjee of the Los Angeles Times: "If the GOP wins control of the House next week, senior congressional Republicans plan to launch a blistering attack on the Obama administration's environmental policies, as well as on scientists who link air pollution to climate change."

Scary if True. David Broder, the Washington Post 's warmonger in chief & amateur economist extraordinaire, says President Obama will win re-election because he will ratchet up for war with Iran, which will boost the economy. Besides, Americans will rally around a war President, as we always do. ...

        ... Dean Baker, an actual economist, responds:

If spending on war can provide jobs and lift the economy then so can spending on roads, weatherizing homes, or educating our kids. Yes, that's right, all the forms of stimulus spending that Broder derided so much because they add to the deficit will increase GDP and generate jobs just like the war that Broder is advocating (which will also add to the deficit). So, we have two routes to prosperity. We can either build up our phsyical infrastructure and improve the skills and education of our workers or we can go kill Iranians. Broder has made it clear where he stands. Via Matt Duss of Think Progress

        ... Blake Hounshell of Foreign Policy, who wonders if Broder has lost his mind, adds more:

... this is crazy for a number of reasons. One is that markets don't like tensions, and certainly not the kind that jack up oil prices. Second, World War II brought the United States out of the Great Depression because it was a massive economic stimulus program that mobilized entire sectors of society. Today's American military has all the tools it needs to fight Iran, and there isn't going to be any sort of buildup.

Frank Rich makes the case that the rank-and-file tea party members have neither the numbers nor the financial clout to have any real effect on legislation. Even if some of their candidates win, they'll be more useful to Democrats who will characterize them as typical Republican extremists than to Republicans, who will sideline them.

Maureen Dowd on President Obama: "In 2008, the message was him. The promise was him. And that’s why 2010 is a referendum on him. With his coalition and governing majority shattering around him, President Obama will have to summon political skills — starting Wednesday — that he has not yet shown he has." ...

... Nicholas Kristof, by contrast, thinks we should give President Obama a break, that he's a victim of the bad economy & that he's done some great things nobody noticed.

CW: this essay is a month old, but it isn't stale. Michael Tomasky in the New York Review of Books: the Democrats continue to have a messaging problem that many thought Obama had the talent to solve. "Republican themes, like 'liberty,' are popular, while Republican policies often are not; and Democratic themes ('community,' 'compassion,' 'justice') are less popular, while many specific Democratic programs—Social Security, Medicare, even (in many polls) putting a price on carbon emissions—have majority support."

Prof. Tyler Cowen in the New York Times: "... continuing arrival of immigrants to American shores is encouraging business activity here, thereby producing more jobs, according to a new study. Its authors argue that the easier it is to find cheap immigrant labor at home, the less likely that production will relocate offshore." CW translation: oppressed workers in the U.S. take jobs away from oppressed workers in other countries, & that has side benefits.

This is a terrific ten-minute discussion of gerrymandering produced by the libertarian Reason Foundation. Chances are you'll learn something you didn't know. I did: