The Commentariat -- November 8, 2016
Daily Beast illustration, with a little help from Norman Rockwell.
Afternoon Update:
Josh Voorhees of Slate: "We launched our collaboration with VoteCastr this morning with a look at the early vote out of Colorado, where Hillary Clinton is leading Donald Trump 46.3 percent to 43.6 percent based on VoteCastr's analysis of known ballots cast. ...
"Florida
2016 Early Vote: 3,685,667 early votes, 41.8 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 1,780,573 early votes, 42.0 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total Trump: 1,678,848 early votes, 40.3 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total 2012 Results: Obama won, 50.0 percent to 49.1 percent
"Iowa 2016 Early Vote: 563,444 early votes, 35.6 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 273,188 early votes, 33.2 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total Trump: 244,739 early votes, 33.5 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.1 percent to 46.5 percent
"Nevada
2016 Early Vote: 593,964 early votes, 58.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 276,461 early votes, 52.0 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total
Trump: 269,255 early votes, 58.1 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.3 percent to 45.7 percent
"Ohio
2016 Early Vote: 1,320,559 early votes, 23.7 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton: 632,433 early votes, 22.4 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total Trump: 579,916 early votes, 21.8 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 50.1 percent to 48.2 percent
"Pennsylvania
2016 Early Vote: 199,167 early votes, 3.5 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton 85,367 early votes, 2.8 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total Trump: 99,286 early votes, 3.7 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total 2012: Obama won, 52.0 percent to 46.8 percent
"Wisconsin
2016 Early Vote: 560,455 early votes, 18.3 percent of total votes cast in 2012 Clinton 295,302 early votes, 18.2 percent of Obama's 2012 total vote total Trump: 225,281 early votes, 16.0 percent of Romney's 2012 total vote total
2012 Obama won, 52.8 percent to 46.1 percent" ...
... Go to this Slate page for details. Click on the bubbles for each state. ...
... Update: The site is currently showing election-day results only. Looks good for Clinton, except in Ohio, where Trump is significantly ahead, according to the estimates. Update update. Oops, not any more. Clinton is now ahead in Ohio, too. -- CW
Charles Stewart & Edward Foley of the Washington Post: Here's why the presidential & some other elections might not be decided even by early Wednesday morning ET: "In 2016, we expect that to be well over 20 percent. Some of these are tallied on election night, but not all.... The Help America Vote Act passed in 2002 mandated provisional voting, which allows voters whose registration is questioned to still cast a ballot. That ballot is not counted immediately. It's put in an envelope, much like an absentee ballot, and counted only if that voter's registration is verified later. Resolving provisional ballots can take days or, as happened in this year's California primary, weeks.... Our most recent research shows that these 'overtime' ballots tilt in favor of Democratic candidates for president." -- CW
Andrew Kaczynski & Nathan McDermott of CNN: "In radio interviews Tuesday, Donald Trump still would not unequivocally commit to accepting the outcome of the election." -- CW
If you want to know what it's like to be a Mrs. Trump -- any Mrs. Trump -- check here and here. In Trumpamerica, there will be no secret ballot. -- CW
Paul Lewis, Tom Silverstone & Nicky Woolf of the Guardian: "Fox News has falsely implicated the protester who was beaten up at a Donald Trump rally in a case of voter fraud involving absentee ballots issued in the name of his 'dead' grandmother. Austyn Crites, a Republican protester who was assaulted at a Trump rally in Nevada, was stunned to see a TV report on Monday associating him with fraudulent voting connected to a grandmother Fox News claimed died in 2002. However, the Guardian met Wilda Austin, 90, in her living room in suburban Reno late on Monday. She was alive and well...The genesis of the fake story about Crites' grandmother, and the way in which it bubbled through from blogs to a Fox News report, seemingly without any attempt at corroboration, is unclear." --safari...
...Daniel Walmer of Lebanon Daily News: "A second issue has arisen for voters choosing Donald Trump for president. When they preview their ballot on the touchscreen machine at the polls, some are finding a vote for Trump is about to be reported as a vote for Hillary Clinton.... In each case, the problem was resolved and the voter was able to successfully change their ballot to the desired ticket, Anderson [the elections director] said. He was not aware of anyone actually casting an incorrect ballot." --safari note: Of course this would happen in Lebanon, a bunch of Muslim immigrants manipulating votes for open borders...
...Brad Reed of RawStory: "Donald Trump's presidential campaign sued the state of Nevada on Tuesday and alleged that hundreds of voters in Clark County were illegally allowed to vote after early voting hours had ended. Judge Gloria Sturman, who heard the campaign's case on Tuesday afternoon, sounded highly skeptical of the lawsuit -- and often seemed incredulous at the Trump camp's claims and requests.... [S]he was flabbergasted that the Trump campaign really wanted Clark County to figure out which ballots were cast by people who allegedly entered the voting line after 8 p.m. on Friday, and then refuse to count them until the campaign had resolved its dispute with the state." --safari
...Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "During a telephone interview on Fox News today, Donald Trump did not say whether he was expecting to argue with the outcome of the election. However, Trump did say he believed there were reports of voter fraud happening across the country, claiming that some people were trying to vote for Republicans only for their selection to change to Democrats. 'It's happening at various places today, it's been reported,' he said. 'The machines, you put down a Republican and it registers as a Democrat, and they've had a lot of complaints about that today.'" --safari
Paul Vigna of The Wall Street Journal: "Wall Street traders are moving markets Tuesday based on data from websites that purport to offer real-time estimates of the election results. It's a first for traders, and for the news media. On Tuesday...websites Vice and Slate are providing what they are characterizing as 'live' voting projections throughout the day.... A number of traders say that people were either following the Slate data, or hearing colleagues in the market talking about it." --safari
Jonathan Chait of New York: "Paul Ryan has spent the half-year since Donald Trump won the nomination carefully preserving the personal brand as a thoughtful, earnest, compassionate policy wonk he has buffed in the national media to an expert shine. Unfortunately for Ryan, he seems to have done the job a bit too well. The Republican base, which likes Trump and loathes traitors, has grown agitated with his too-good-for-Trump routine.... And now Ryan can't stop talking about how excited he is to support Donald Trump for president. Ryan has said that he personally voted for Trump, wrote an op-ed endorsing him, enthused to right-wing radio host Hugh Hewitt about Trump's plan to call a special session of Congress to repeal Obamacare, and has been tweeting regularly about his support." --safari
Long Lines Hamper (some) Voters. Big Surprise. Richard Wolf and Kevin McCoy of USA Today. "Tens of millions of Americans descended on the polls today as election watchdogs reported hours-long lines, sporadic equipment failures and confusion about polling places...Problems cropped up Florida, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and elsewhere -- key battleground states that could decide whether Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump wins the presidency.... A coalition of more than 100 civil rights and voting rights groups reported that more than half of the complaints received in the morning about voter intimidation or harassment came from Pennsylvania. Those included voters being asked to provide specific forms of identification that are not required and Hispanic voters finding no Spanish speakers to assist them. 'There is tremendous disruption at the polls today,' said Wade Henderson, president of the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.... The most widespread problem occurred in Durham, N.C., where electronic poll books used to check voter registration were down." ...
... Akhilleus. Really? You surprise me. Long lines? Voter intimidation? Machine failures? Any of that in Republican districts? It's a good thing racism is no longer a problem, per Little Johnny and the Dwarfs otherwise this could be the most chaotic election in the last 50 years.
If It's Not to Trump's Benefit, It Must Be Illegal. Ariane De Vogue and Tom LoBianco of CNN. "A Nevada court judge forcefully denied a request Tuesday from Donald Trump's campaign to direct a county registrar of voters to preserve and segregate ballots from voting machines in four early voting sites in the Las Vegas area where Latino voters showed up in record numbers. The Trump campaign said Clark County Registrar of Voters Joe Gloria kept polling locations open two hours beyond their designated closing times. Clark County saw its record for single-day early vote turnout shattered Friday when 57,174 people cast their ballots, according to data from the Nevada secretary of state's office, as Hillary Clinton and Democrats sought to build up a prohibitive advantage over Trump before Tuesday in the key state. Trump's lawyers asked for an order to have the pertinent early vote ballots -- those cast after the designated polling hours Friday -- not to be 'co-mingled or interspersed' with other ballots. Judge Gloria Sturman, of the District Court for Clark County Nevada, ruled from the bench, saying Gloria was already obligated by state law to maintain the records that the Trump campaign is seeking...
...Akhilleus. So there. This is only a tiny hint of what is to come. Look for Trump to contest every ballot in every county in every battleground state if he doesn't win. Look for his minions to scream "Stolen election" from the rooftops for weeks and months.
*****
Presidential Race
Nate Cohn of the New York Times: "The final national polls give Mrs. Clinton a four-point lead, and her path to the presidency is straightforward: win the states carried by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia.... She has led in nearly every live interview survey of those states so far this year, though the large number of white working-class voters in many of these states gives Mr. Trump a shot at an upset. Mrs. Clinton is also competitive in North Carolina, Florida, Ohio and Arizona. If she won all four, she would have a sizable victory in the Electoral College." -- CW ...
... Nate Silver: "Hillary Clinton has a 70 percent chance of winning the election, according to both the FiveThirtyEight polls-only and polls-plus models. That's up from a 65 percent chance on Sunday night, so Clinton has had a good run in the polls in the final days of the campaign. Clinton's projected margin of victory in the popular vote has increased to 3.5 percent from 2.9 percent." -- CW
Anne Gearan, et al., of the Washington Post: "The frenzied last leg of the 2016 presidential campaign culminated after midnight Monday in rival late-night rallies coursing with anger and emotion, as Donald Trump hammered Hillary Clinton as corrupt and Clinton cast the election as 'the test of our time.' Clinton closed her campaign with an energetic rally in Raleigh, accompanied by former president Bill Clinton and their daughter Chelsea. Singer Lady Gaga performed for an audience that nearly to a person raised hands when asked how many had voted early." -- CW
Michael Barbaro of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton and Donald J. Trump hopscotched from Pennsylvania to North Carolina to Michigan on Monday in the final, frenzied hours of the presidential campaign, offering clashing closing arguments as the sprawling map of the United States was reduced to a string of must-win states.... Mrs. Clinton, whom polls show leading Mr. Trump, gave a sunny and optimistic summation of her candidacy for the White House as she embarked on a four-state tour on Monday. 'Tomorrow, you can vote for a hopeful, inclusive, big-hearted America,' she told a crowd in Pittsburgh. 'Our core values are being tested in this election.' Mr. Trump ... took a darker approach, assailing the 'crooked media,' attacking a 'corrupt Washington establishment' and mocking Mrs. Clinton over and over. 'It's a rigged, rigged system,' he declared in Raleigh, N.C. 'And now it's up to the American people to deliver the justice that we deserve at the ballot box tomorrow.'... Mrs. Clinton ... abandoned her usual assault on Mr. Trump's conduct and temperament. And Mr. Trump, who normally seeks to convey confidence at all times, sounded uncharacteristically vulnerable." -- CW ...
... Anne Gearan, et al., of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton made their final pitches to an anxious nation Monday, with Clinton seeking to strike a conciliatory, positive tone -- and Trump, the underdog, warning of 'disaster' if he loses. On the last day of the presidential campaign, Clinton seemed to be a clear but not overwhelming favorite. She held a small lead in national polls and in key battleground states.... In Grand Rapids, Clinton talked about bringing the country together after the election was over.... 'If we don't win, I will consider this the single greatest waste of time, energy ... and money,' Trump said during a campaign stop in Raleigh. 'If we don't win, honestly, we've all wasted our time.'" CW: How we all wish the worst thing he'd done in this campaign was waste his time, energy & money.
Jonathan Alter of the Daily Beast: "... the choice between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton is stark: An ignorant demagogue so reckless that his staff had to confiscate his phone so he wouldn't tweet versus a seasoned and earnest if overly defensive believer in the ability of government to improve lives. An outrageous liar and confirmed deadbeat versus a public figure whose distortions and evasions are regrettable but well within the norm for politicians. An authoritarian who says 'I alone can fix it' versus a communitarian -- far more in the American grain -- whose message is 'Stronger Together'." -- CW
Julie Davis of the New York Times: "President Obama warned Monday that Donald J. Trump would accept the support of white supremacists if he won the White House, calling the Republican nominee 'temperamentally unfit' to lead the country as he sharpened his message to start a daylong, election-eve push for Hillary Clinton." -- CW ...
... Juliet Eilperin & Greg Jaffe of the Washington Post: "At a moment defined by anger at Washington, voter cynicism and two historically unpopular presidential candidates, [President] Obama's approval ratings are the highest they have been since his first days in office. It now stands at 56 percent, according to a Gallup tracking poll released Sunday. For the first time in decades -- dating back to Ronald Reagan -- a lame-duck incumbent is in high demand on the campaign trail. The good feelings, meanwhile, extend beyond the president himself. First lady Michelle Obama has been perhaps Clinton's most effective surrogate, campaigning alongside her in North Carolina last month. In crucial swing states such as Florida and Pennsylvania, Vice President Biden's popularity surpasses even that of the president at his eight-year peak." -- CW
Thomas Heath of the Washington Post: "Global markets were up significantly and the Standard & Poor's 500-stock index broke its longest slide in nearly 36 years on Monday as investors bet on a Hillary Clinton victory over Republican Donald Trump going into Tuesday's election. 'This is the Comey celebration,' said Washington investor Michael Farr, referring to FBI Director James B. Comey's letter to Congress on Sunday saying his agency's investigation of Clinton's emails was complete and there would be no prosecution. Market volatility has been high since the Oct. 28 announcement that the agency was looking into another batch of emails of possible relevance to the probe into Clinton's private server, which threw fresh uncertainty into the race for the presidency. The CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, had risen for nine consecutive days, signaling high investor anxiety." -- CW ...
... Evan Perez of CNN: "Hillary Clinton's campaign sent cease-and-desist letters to broadcasters advising that they shouldn't air ads from pro-Donald Trump PACs that include the claim that Clinton is "under investigation by the FBI.' The letters were dated Sunday, the same day the FBI announced that it was sticking by its conclusion that no charges were recommended against Clinton following completion of a review of recently discovered emails belonging to Clinton aide Huma Abedin.... [The] letter says that 'at no point' did the FBI 'reopen' the investigation into Hillary Clinton's emails. 'Therefore the claim in these ads is provably false'..." -- CW ...
... David Fahrenthold, et al., of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton's campaign chief expressed relief Monday that the FBI's email probe had been put to rest, but Donald Trump appeared ready to hammer the issue in his last-ditch bid for critical swing states as the campaign entered its final day." (Also linked yesterday.) -- CW ...
... Mark Sumner of Daily Kos: "FBI Director James Comey's last minute 'nothing to see here,' doesn't make up for the bomb he hurled into the election process ten days ago. All it does is confirm that Comey, far from being a scrupulous guardian of big-J Justice and an exemplar of non-partisan honesty, is an easily-influenced dishrag willing to cause irreparable damage to the nation without a scrap of valid evidence.... At this point it's impossible to believe that Comey acted either out of plain ignorance, or ignorance abetted only by poor judgement. The damage generated by Comey holds the critical factor that was not present in the case he was supposed to be investigating -- an intent to do harm." -- CW
... You can't review 650,000 new emails in eight days. You can't do it, folks. Hillary Clinton is guilty. She knows it, the FBI knows it, the people know it, and now it's up to the American people to deliver justice at the ballot box on November 8. -- Donald Trump, in Sterling Heights, Michigan, Sunday ...
... Andy Greenberg of Wired: "Yes, Donald Trump, the FBI can vet 650,000 emails in eight days.... Trump supporter General Michael Flynn [CW: the ignorant loon Trump wants to name Defense Secretary] did the math on Twitter: 'IMPOSSIBLE There R 691,200 seconds in 8 days. DIR Comey has thoroughly reviewed 650,000 emails in 8 days? An email / second? IMPOSSIBLE....'... the FBI can review hundreds of thousands of emails in a week, using automated search and filtering tools rather than Flynn's absurd notion of Comey reading the documents manually. 'This is not rocket science,' says Jonathan Zdziarski, a forensics expert who's consulted for law enforcement and worked as a systems administrator. 'Eight days is more than enough time to pull this off in a responsible way.' One former FBI forensics expert even tells WIRED he's personally assessed far larger collections of data, far faster.... The real question, wrote cybersecurity consultant Rob Graham in his blog, isn't how the FBI managed to conclude its investigation in eight days. It's how it managed to take so long." ...
... CW: Impossible to know if Trump & Flynn are lying or if they're really that stupid, but what does it matter? Obviously, they're both incompetent nincompoops. They're either shining on the voters or they can't even imagine how data processing works. Scary to think Flynn was a military general who at least alleges he had no idea how that intel in his inbox was generated. ...
... Adam Goldman & Matt Apuzzo of the New York Times: Besides, there were nowhere near 650K relevant e-mails. "As it turned out, law enforcement officials said, there was no need to review all of the emails, only Ms. Abedin's. Those emails numbered in the thousands, and even many of those were duplicates of messages that had been looked at previously, officials said." -- CW
Greg Sargent: "As a general rule, political scientists tend to shy away from taking public stands for -- or against -- candidates that might make them appear partisan or somehow lacking in scientific objectivity. So it's notable that a large group of political scientists has now signed an open letter warning that their academic experience persuades them that Donald Trump poses a unique menace to American democracy." -- CW
** Dana Milbank: "Anti-Semitism is no longer an undertone of Trump's campaign. It's the melody. For more than a year, I have condemned Trump in the harshest terms I could conjure as he went after Latinos, Muslims, immigrants, African Americans, women and the disabled. This is both because it was wrong in its own right and because, from my culture's history, I know that when a demagogue begins to identify scapegoats, the Jews are never far behind." CW: If you are not a white, Protestant man of Northern European stock, you have no place in Trump's America. ...
... Eric Hananoki of Media Matters: "... Donald Trump's closing campaign ad did not disappoint his anti-Semitic fans in the white nationalist movement.... Anti-Defamation League CEO Jonathan Greenblatt condemned the ad, stating that 'whether intentional or not, the images and rhetoric in this ad touch on subjects that anti-Semites have used for ages....' Trump's supporters in the white nationalist movement agree that the ad is anti-Semitic -- and they're thrilled about it. The Daily Stormer is a virulently anti-Semitic website that worships Adolf Hitler and Donald Trump. Site founder Andrew Anglin wrote in a November 7 piece headlined 'Glorious Leader's Closing Argument Blasts the Jew' that the ad is 'absolutely fantastic' because Trump portrays Jews as 'what they are: a virus eating away at the flesh of this once-great nation.'... In a November 7 Daily Stormer piece headlined 'Radical Jew Attacks New Nazi Trump Ad,' 'Zeiger' attacked Josh Marshall for criticizing the ad and said it has imagery that 'could be right at home on a William Pierce video.' Pierce was 'America's most important neo-Nazi for some three decades until his death in 2002' and the 'leader of the National Alliance, a group whose members included terrorists, bank robbers and would-be bombers,' as the Southern Poverty Law Center (SPLC) noted.” -- CW ...
... Michael Tomasky of the Daily Beast: "So why [did Trump go to] Minnesota [in the last days of his campaign]? Turns out the answer is to get in some digs at Somalis! The largest concentration of Somali immigrants to the United States lives in the Twin Cities, and it turns out that in recent years, officials estimate that around 30 young Somali men have gone off to join either ISIS or East Africa's Al Shabaab terror network. So that's basically the whole reason Trump went to Minnesota -- to work white people into a lather about black people. 'Everybody's reading about the disaster taking place in Minnesota,' he said. 'You don't even have the right to talk about it.'..." Tomaski details Trump's recent dissing of Nevada's Latino voters & his closing anti-Semitic ad. "[Trump] ended it exactly as he began it, because it's who he is. A more thoroughly repulsive man, we've not encountered in our politics, ever." -- CW
** Ezra Klein on why Donald Trump has come so close (or could win) the presidency. Political primaries have weakened the parties, "and particularly the Republican party," leaving them with no choice but to accept -- and boost -- the candidate its partisan base selects. ...
... CW: There are fixes for this, but they are not easy, particularly because the parties have turned over much of their control of the process to the media. The networks didn't just promote Donald Trump by broadcasting his rallies and letting him call in instead of coming into their studios. They also pretty much decided who got to participate in the primary debates. They could have just said no to Donald & Carly & Ben & Lincoln (Chafee, that is). Hell, they could have said no to Bernie.
Tom Sullivan of Hullabaloo: "In an op-ed in the New York Times by Nikolai Tolstoy, the chancellor of the International Monarchist League, has a recommendation for Americans who share Trump's authoritarian impulses. He argues for the advantages of monarchy: 'The French politician of the early 20th century Georges Clemenceau once remarked, "there are two things in the world for which I have never seen any use: the prostate gland and the president of the republic." As they contemplate the choice before them this week, many Americans may share something of that sentiment. There is an alternative.' Why this man isn't already on Donald Trump's campaign team is beyond me." -- CW
Election News
Slate is supposed to be reporting out Votecastr election projections in seven battleground states beginning at 8 am ET, but at 8:10 am, the page is blank. Not even a link. It's after 9am now, when the Vice site was supposed to go live, and nothing's happening there, either. One gets an "about:blank" URL at both the Slate & Vice linked pages. ...
... Nicholas Corasaniti of the New York Times: "For decades, news organizations have refrained from releasing early results in presidential battleground states on Election Day, adhering to a strict, time-honored embargo until a majority of polls there have closed. Now, a group of data scientists, journalists and Silicon Valley entrepreneurs is seeking to upend that reporting tradition, providing detailed projections of who is winning at any given time on Election Day in key swing states, and updating the information in real time from dawn to dusk." CW: Not as tradition-shattering if it doesn't work!
Fred Barbash of the Washington Post: "The first actual results of the 2016 presidential election are in: Voters in Dixville Notch, N.H., cast 4 votes for Democrat Hillary Clinton, 2 for Republican Donald Trump and one for the Libertarian Party's Gary Johnson. Mitt Romney, the GOP's 2012 presidential nominee, got a single write-in vote in the country's 'First in the Nation' balloting. Two other New Hampshire towns claiming 'First' status, Hart's Location and Millsfield, cast and counted their ballots after midnight Tuesday as well. The grand total for all three gave Trump a 32-to-25 edge over Clinton." -- CW
Jonathan Mahler & Michael Wines of the New York Times: "Millions of Americans will cast their ballots on Tuesday under intense scrutiny both from vigilantes who fear the election will be rigged and from thousands of voting rights advocates who fear the tally will be distorted by intimidation and, perhaps, the suppression of a minority vote that may be crucial to the outcome.... Adding to the anxiety is fear of Election Day hacking, perhaps by foreign interests. 'I would say this is the most frightening election period I can remember in my adult life,' said Richard L. Hasen, an election law expert...." -- CW
Nate Cohn of the New York Times: "This year, Hispanic voters, perhaps motivated by 's policy proposals (including deportation) and harsh language aimed at undocumented Hispanic immigrants, really might decide this election. Early voting data unequivocally indicates that Hillary Clinton will benefit from a long awaited surge in Hispanic turnout, vastly exceeding the Hispanic turnout from four years ago.... The surge is real, and it's big. It could be enough to overcome Mr. Trump's strength among white-working class voters in the swing states of Florida and Nevada. If it does, it will almost certainly win her the election.... In total, as many Hispanic voters have already cast ballots in Florida's early voting period as cast ballots in all of 2012.... According to Daniel Smith of the University of Florida, fully 36 percent of the Hispanics who have voted so far did not vote in 2012." ...
... Joshua Green of Bloomberg: "Donald Trump's campaign has always understood that Florida is key to his electoral chances.... Miami-Dade County is the most important county in the country for Trump's chances, according to a [Trump] campaign official familiar with the [campaign's voter turnout] simulations.... The demographic mix of early voters [in Miami-Dade] also looks highly favorable to Clinton: 58 percent Hispanic, 17 percent African-American and 20 percent white. But the late registrants ... give the clearest indication that sentiment in Miami-Dade is running strongly against Trump. Of the 29,657 voters who registered last month, 41 percent are Democrats, 44 percent are unaffiliated, and only 12.5 percent are Republicans." -- CW ...
... Marc Caputo of Politico: "In a final surge, Florida Democrats stormed early voting polling stations in the Sunday before Election Day and widened their lead over Republicans to 88,000 ballots cast thanks to the strong support of African-Americans and Latinos in the nation's biggest battleground state. The Democrats nearly tripled their Saturday lead thanks to historic voting numbers in just two counties: Miami-Dade and Broward. About 100,000 voters showed up to those two counties Sunday, casting almost 39 percent of the ballots in the 16 counties that held a final day of in-person early voting before Election Day. If Hillary Clinton wins Florida -- and therefore the presidential race -- it will be on the strength of these two urban counties.... In this Hispanic- and black-heavy media market, Democrats have rolled up a nearly 318,000-vote margin over Republicans in total in-person early votes and mail-in absentee ballots." -- CW ...
... Tara Golshan of Vox: "At least 42 million citizens have voted early, with more than 18 million ballots cast in battleground states. This is a bit of a drop-off from 2012, when 46 million people voted early.... More women have voted than men, Latino voter turnout is so far at an all-time high, and black voter turnout is still below the last presidential election, when Barack Obama was on the ballot.... It's a tighter race than Clinton would have hoped for, but there are some positive signs for the Democratic nominee going into Election Day." -- CW ...
... N.C. GOP Publicly Congratulates Itself for Suppressing Black Vote. Josh Israel of Think Progress: "After Republican leaders mounted a concerted and illegal effort to make it harder for African Americans to vote in North Carolina, the party apparatus celebrated on Monday that fewer African Americans have voted in North Carolina this year.... The North Carolina GOP sent out a press release titled 'North Carolina Obama Coalition Crumbling,' citing the decline in African American early voting and the increase in 'Caucasian' early voting.... In July, a federal appeals court struck down an 'omnibus' election law, passed by the GOP-controlled state legislature and signed by Gov. Pat McCrory (R), writing that it was 'hard not to come away with the conclusion that North Carolina's lawmakers wanted to get caught engaging in unlawfully racial discrimination.'... After that failed, North Carolina Republicans used their two-to-one edge on electoral boards to slash early voting options and force long lines at the few early voting locations in urban centers...." -- CW ...
... OR, as Joan McCarter of Daily Kos more delicately puts it, "North Carolina Republicans really proud of being fucking racists." ...
... Max Rosenthal of Mother Jones: "While [North Carolina] had more early voting locations and hours overall, 17 Republican-controlled county election boards slashed the number of early voting sites they set up, which decimated turnout in their areas. According to an October 26 blog post from insightus, a North Carolina public policy nonprofit group, 'the average turnout across these 17 super-suppressor counties is just 69% of 2012's performance. Meanwhile, voting action across the state's 83 other counties averaged 124% of 2012.' Michael McDonald..., who runs the early-vote-tracking US Elections Project, noted that North Carolina's restrictions made it the only Southern state to track voters by race where black early voting actually declined." CW: If the Supreme Court confederates had not gutted the Voting Rights Act, the DOJ would not have allowed these ole white supremacist boys to get away with these stunts. So, once again -- Thanks, Supremes! ...
... Mark Stern of Slate: "Millions of Americans eager to cast a ballot before the Election Day rush have stood in gallingly long lines during early voting.... Contrary to the suggestion of some election boards, these endless lines were not a fluke or a surprise. They were a direct result of the Republican Party's recent, coordinated assault on voting rights.... These endless lines are a symptom of voter suppression, and those who suffered through them are victims of the Republican war on voting rights. Our current crisis was carefully planned and plotted by GOP activists, officials, and politicians across the country, and set in motion the day the Supreme Court declawed the Voting Rights Act. It is now clear that one major political party has dedicated itself to suppressing as many minority votes as possible. What we are witnessing this election season is the fruits of that labor -- the incontrovertible evidence that the right to vote is more imperiled in America today that it has been in half a century." ...
... CW: Just about every time I see a picture of CJ John Roberts' smug puss, I superimpose upon it the bone-tired face of a poor black mother or father, maybe someone who works two jobs, who John Roberts decided should stand & suffer silently for hours to exercise her or his fundamental right to vote against the anti-American power structure Roberts represents. Other times I see the confused face of a black American citizen of a certain age just as she is told she is not allowed to vote at all.
Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Monday refused to intercede in a lawsuit brought by the Ohio Democratic Party against Donald J. Trump's presidential campaign. The justices turned away a last-minute bid from the party to reinstate a sweeping order from a trial judge that had barred the Trump campaign from harassing or intimidating voters in Ohio. The Supreme Court's brief order gave no reasons for staying out of the case and did not note any dissents. Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who has been critical of Mr. Trump, added a brief statement explaining her vote in the case, Ohio Democratic Party v. Donald J. Trump for President. She said that an Ohio law already forbids the harassment of voters, suggesting that a court order to enforce that law was not needed. Mr. Trump has urged his supporters to act as poll observers, suggesting that voters in unspecified 'certain areas' were likely to engage in fraud." -- CW
William Wan & Sari Horwitz of the Washington Post: "State leaders, voting experts and advocates say they are preparing for an unusual level of confusion and chaos Tuesday as voters cast their ballots in a historically bitter presidential race. Early voters in some states have faced hours-long lines the past several days. Democrats have filed a flurry of last-minute lawsuits alleging voter intimidation by Donald Trump supporters. And there have been some heated polling site confrontations between Trump voters and Hillary Clinton backers. Election monitors are especially worried this year about the specter of voter intimidation after calls by the Republican candidate for his supporters to stake out polling places and watch for fraud." -- CW
Washington Post: "The Post will ... offer unlimited, free access to its content starting at 12:01 a.m. ET November 8 until the morning after the election." -- CW
Other News & Views
Rees Shapiro of the Washington Post: "A federal jury has awarded $3 million in damages to a former University of Virginia associate dean after finding that a Rolling Stone magazine article sullied her reputation by alleging that she was indifferent to allegations of a gang rape on campus." -- CW
Beyond the Beltway
Mark Berman of the Washington Post: "Jury selection was scheduled to begin Monday in the trial of a man charged with killing nine black parishioners at a Charleston church last year, but a federal judge abruptly postponed it without offering much of an explanation. At the same time, officials in Charleston said they were investigating reports of threatening letters recently sent to locations in the city, one of which referred to the alleged gunman. At least two others went to the church where the massacre occurred. Officials did not say whether there was any connection between the letters and the trial." -- CW
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So the day has finally arrived.
Tomorrow I will be the election chief for my precinct in a battleground state. We always have our share - and sometimes even more - of cranky voters whose days are not going the way they would like. I was once told that I "have the manners of a pig" by a gentleman who accused me of personally stealing the election. I have no idea how things are going to go but am girding myself for the worst.
To Rockygirl, and all the voices of reason and sanity here:
Thank you for what you have done and for what you will do. You are part of America that has been, and always will be, great!
Rockygirl,
While you're stealing the election, if there are any others lying around, I'd love to have one, if you're so inclined. I haven't thought about where I'd put it yet. If we had a mantle, it would look great there. I'll probably store it in the garage til I find a good spot, but honestly, I'll take good care of it. If I see Donaldo driving down the street with his coterie of armed KKK guards, I'll wave it at him. "See? I've got my stolen election. Where's yours, Donnie? Don't you know all us Democrats have our very own stolen election. It's our thing. Toodle-oo now."
Maybe I should bulletproof the house first...
Gotta say: Voting by mail--as we do in Oregon--after being registered automatically when we reach age 18, is the best system in the US of A. No voter fraud, and no funny stuff, since ballot counters are carefully monitored by a bi-partisan team in every county.
It is rather anti-climatic for most of us here--since we received our ballots three weeks ago, and our Voter Pamphlets a month ago-- explaining in detail the qualifications of each candidate for "whatever" and arguments on both sides for the ballot measures. I dropped off my completed ballot at City Hall the day after I received it. No stamp needed....
What is wrong with the rest of our nutty little country?
P.S. I know it is too early to "know," but I really do know Hillary is going to win, not by a landslide, but by more than enough! I am still worried, however, about Russ Feingold in Wisconsin--since the Koch Ass Hats have stepped in and assigned millions to his incompetent opponent, Ron Johnson. We NEED Russ Feingold in the Senate. Really need him! And I no longer have faith in old school Wisconsin progressives that I once did, probably because most are dead. Sad,,,,
Just a final pre-election thought. Donaldo can quit right now. No need to go through with the election. He's already made America grate.
Can I get a rim shot?
Oh, and one Latinate thought now that it's well past midnight:
Hodie, Trvmpvs delenda est.
And may a Carthaginian peace descend on his entire despicable brood.
My older daughter (lives in the U.K.) emailed this morning asking when we would know the results of the election, younger daughter (who lives in Africa) replied :
As soon as the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse canter over the horizon we'll know that Trump won it.
I'll be able to start watching live results from Washington at two a.m.
Pat
@Kate: I, too, have been worried about Feingold and just yesterday voiced my anger to my mister about Johnson, a bona fide nincompoop if there ever was one and how could Wisconsinites not see that and how could they not be voting for Feingold who is considered one of the finest. Our mother state, Kate, ain't what it used to be thanks to Walker and his Big Daddies.
And YOUR state's voting procedure makes so much sense. Another reason many states don't share it.
Fingers crossed, folks––by tomorrow the fun begins.
Back in the dark ages when I was in college, I read about studies that demonstrated that people under stress would resort to scapegoating minorities more than they did when not under stress. I thought that was weird, What? You're mad at Mexicans because you not-Mexican girlfriend dumps you? I sure as hell didn't blame "the Jews" when my Jewish boyfriend dumped me. He was a person, not a stand-in for or representative of a group of people.
So what you're seeing now is Trump under stress. Of course he's been scapegoating minorities from the git-go, but he seemed to do it more for fun and attention, in the age-old tradition of the disgusting bully. Ha ha, let's mimic someone's physical disability. Ho ho, Mexicans are rapists & criminals but some might be good people, have a taco.
Now it's mean, and nobody escapes. Women, the disabled, Jews, Muslims, Latinos, blacks, reporters, Democrats, Hillary, Obama.
A president is always under stress. Trump is Nixon, writ large & unashamed to publicly share the twisted thoughts Nixon kept to himself & his close aides. Nixon carried out his dirty tricks covertly. His infamous enemies list was short. Trump would carry out his attacks in the open, perhaps on a massive scale. And he could do real damage to real people -- "lock 'em up" for no reason, especially with Rudy Giuliani as his AG. You can see why those political scientists Greg Sargent writes about are so concerned & why Michael Tomasky is right to condemn Trump in no uncertain terms.
Marie
@Akhilleus. Thanks. I'm ashamed to say I had to look up "Carthaginian peace."
Marie
A big thanks to Rocky Girl & all the brave soldiers who are working the polls today. There should be medals tucked into their pay envelopes.
Marie
I have a dream. Tomorrow the word 'Trump' disappears from the English language (except for criminal court appearances).
Marie, Trump's brain is beyond the concept of stress of any President.
He has too conflicting problems: not being declared the most wonderful person on earth and having the job and responsibility of POTUS. In other words he desperately wants to win and he is scared shit of winning.
Pat (Not that Pat),
If the Four Horsemen arrive in Trump's wake, they won't be cantering, they'll be galloping. But they may not be coming for us, the Anti-Trumpists.
John the Revelator (to quote the great Son House, and others) possibly wrote the Book of the Seven Seals as a hopeful wish list for the Roman Empire and its dissolute, racist, misogynistic, mendacious, self-aggrandizing, and sociopathic emperors. It didn't happen all at once, but Edward Gibbon in his history of the fall of Rome, among many other historians of the later Roman periods, chronicles the trials that beset the crumbling empire, including death, pestilence, war, and famine.
So perhaps it's someone else they will be coming for, not us.
However, there's an alternate interpretation. When John writes "behold a pale horse, and the man on it was death", perhaps he forgot to mention that the man sitting that horse was a sickly orange in color.
As for me, I've had it with Trumpish revelations. So if any of those four want to drag that sonuvabitch back to hell with them, I'm all for it.
"Tell me who's that writin'..."
After the deluge...
The stinking sludge that has overflown the gutters of Confederate perfidy emanating directly from the Trump lie hole will eventually subside (somewhat), unless the Trump Monster wins, but evidence of its presence, like black marks and foul mold on buildings registering the high water level of a recent flood, will be with us for years.
And the constant drumbeat of Confederate trickery and hackmanship, which has never slackened but which may have been temporarily submerged under the stentorian shouting and whining of the Orange Headed Bigot, remains a powerful force for mendacious policy debates in this country.
Yesterday out here in RC Land, we had some back and forth on jobs and the economy. It put me in mind of a piece I heard on NPR that morning that brought two world views head to head and demonstrated (yet again...) the essential insubstantial, ephemeral, and mendacious qualities of Confederate economic thinking.
The two economists (well, one economist, and one hack pretending to be an economist) were Jared Bernstein of the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities and Peter Morici, "...one of [Fox's] favorite conservative economy hacks".
I've linked the piece if you'd like to review it, but in a nutshell, here's what's going on, and it's something progressives need to think about as we move forward.
So, Bernstein, as is typically the case with representatives of a progressive/Democratic point of view, presents a well reasoned, sober, cautious argument. The Confederate attacks, not with any well reasoned, well supported argument of his own, but with decades old insults ("Democrats want to hand out fish, not teach people how to fish for themselves!!") that has no bearing at all on the conversation but instead, like yelling "Tax and Spend!" tosses a warning flag to wingers that what they're about to hear can be completely discounted.
Bernstein outlines Clinton's jobs proposals and Morici counters with "But what about jobs?" Huh? Weren't you listening? He just answered that. No matter. When Bernstein challenged Morici to name a single policy proposal of Trump's that would make life better for the average American, he refused but eventually went back to the old line about handing out fish instead of teaching people how to fish. And that was right after Bernstein had set forth a Clinton plan for training!
And on it goes.
The point here is that Confederates have no plans to help average Americans. But they are very good on the attack. They belittle, they smirk, they use hoary, long debunked canards, like the fish story, and they shout at the top of their lungs about making America Great Again! Which LIBERALS cannot do! No support for their arguments. They are presented, just as Trump does, as self-evident truths.
And it works. It works because it takes effort to read through and evaluate serious proposals (not to mention coming up with them). But it's easy to jump on the bandwagon and scream "Yeah, fuck them tax and spend Libtards!"
Bernstein, as many liberal leaning experts often do, noted where Morici might have a point (something wingers NEVER do) and proceeded in a calm and reasonable manner. Not Morici, it was attack, attack, attack, stay on point, never give an inch, don't worry about having no real ideas, just attack, attack, attack, oh yeah and Trump is going to show those rotten Chinese a thing or two. How? He doesn't say, but like Trump, he wants listeners to just trust him.
Bringing facts to the table, being reasonable and rational doesn't seem to be working. Or maybe it is. I don't know. But it would help if the media, did their job instead of sitting on the sidelines in these debates nodding sagely and saying, "Oh yes, but on the other hand....blah, blah, blah, both sides, blah, blah..." Yes, and there are two sides to the story of an axe murderer, but does the fact that he shoveled the walk of the old lady who lives next door balance out his other proclivities?
Advocates for reason and rational governance will have to find a more efficacious and visceral way to communicate with voters. Years ago, I went before a governmental body to ask for funds for necessary equipment. They asked what that equipment did. Like an idiot, I told them the truth. I explained in great detail the technical requirements and how the requests would fulfill our needs. Denied. Not even a five second debate. The next year I went back again with the same request. They asked what that equipment would do. I said "It'll make you look great." Request approved. With a single follow up question. "Are you sure you don't need more of that stuff?" I kid you not. True story.
I don't know if that sort of thing will help, but it can't hurt.
In any event, if we get out of this thing alive today, we have a lot of work ahead of us. Trump is like a roadcut through the confederacy. He has excavated long stretches of right wing world and put on display the filth that lies beneath. Even when the orange bulldozer is gone, the sedimentary feculence underlying the Confederacy will still be there.
Jeebus AK, I hope you didn't commit any of that funding strategy to email. Wikileaks after all.....then the FBI will be on your ass for being extremely careless.
I read and cook (not at the same time) when I'm anxious. I read Klein's piece last night. Surprised myself, as I'm not especially a Klein fan. I thought it was a well articulated argument and it made a lot of sense.
I admire Rocky Girl getting out there with the voters, protecting our democracy. I have little restraint in the face of the Fuckface Von Clownstick contingent. Instead, I'm soothing myself by making copious amounts of carne asana burritos to feed the GOTV folks at my local House race. The only person I can injure is myself - burns from the grill.
Yes, I heard part of that back-and-forth with Jared Bernstein and the other half-wit, and it was all like AK said. Facts have (apparently) no place in our modern world. This morning the wizards are touting a full-throated endorsement of dumpster boy and party by Paulie-baby, the so-called speaker of the house. He says of course they have plans for a reset of the ACA. Which they have been saying for five years now. I still don't believe it, and even if they CAN squeeze out something, it would be the same-old-same-old: "policies" that benefit the insurance companies and never the policy-holders or aspirers. They, the Old South apologists, really think we don't remember what they do or say. Video? What video? Gaacchh. My polling place this morning had plenty of signs from the right, and a lady handing out cheat sheets for "values voters." We informed her she could not do that...she smiled a fat smile, as if thinking that yes, they can do whatever they want... My fingers and toes are crossed so hard it's doubtful if I can rise from my work chair...
Was it irony that the trumps entered the polling station, grim faced, through the disabled entrance?
Bill was right, HRC's greatest supporters are people who know her, and people who know him. I've never seen or heard a candidate booed at their own polling station.
I literally woke up thinking much the same as Kate. Why is it so much easier to vote in some states than others? We still have election day polling places here in CA, but they shouldn't be necessary. Everyone has the opportunity to get a mail in ballot, and barring that, our early polling locations are plentiful and available. If you live in a precinct that asks for postage on your ballot, there are numerous places to drop them off, and I did hear a news report this morning that if you forgot your postage the post office would just Bill the County. Of course, CA is a Blue state, which means we actually still believe in democracy.
Not a full answer to the question of how to convince a fact-averse dummkopf that he might be wrong, but a start, I think.
The trick is allying the facts with the visceral and personal consequence to the dummkopf. For example, a regressive tax regime doesn't just raise too little money to support essential services for the dummkopf and his family, it actually costs him more out of pocket than a progressive tax program would.
Then bring in the charts. The numbers show clearly how you, yes you are being screwed. The numbers may not convince, but the screwing might. Screwing is, after all, what he thinks has happened to him.
Of course, if the barrier to understanding is purely racism, of if he has been truly frightened out of his wits by the Right's barrage of scary movies, no argument in his lifetime will likely penetrate.
We'll just have to wait for all those who don't have the courage to look the world as it is in the eye to up and die....which they will.
And they're probably scared of that, too.
Serves 'em right.
The Weather Channel did what it said it would do: it is showing beautiful nature scenes with music and natural sounds from now til midnight eastern time. If it gets too tense, just switch over for a few minutes. Everything will be soothed.
Then you can go back to the numbers.
OMFG!
Per Gloria's post, I had to check out the scene of the Drumpf family doofuses being booed as they arrived at their own polling station, entering hie-lariously, through the disabled entrance. Couldn't the Don-ahld give us another impression of a disabled person, arms flailing and mouth agape? No. He's just Fuckface von Clownstick. And Jr. and Little Dracula are no different.
Even better, two women who showed up at P.S. 59 at 233 E. 56th Street, the polling place graced a short (fingered) while later by would-be President Pussy Grabber, were themselves grabbed and escorted out by police because they were topless and declaimed "Trump, out of our polls". They were arrested, dragged away, and booked for "electioneering".
Just think about that for a minute. The Confederate candidate, who brags about feeling up any woman he wants, who has stated that women with small breasts are worthless, who raped a former wife (per her charge), who states that dinner better be ready when he gets home, or else, who has replaced women or fired women who are "not hot" in his estimation, who barges in to check out naked underage girls--GIRLS--is given one of the great places of honor in American society, the chosen candidate for president by one of the two major parties, guarded by armed Secret Service agents, paid by taxpayers, a hateful scumbag who objectifies women in ways heretofore unseen in the history of major American politics, who is protected and coddled and given every break for his most egregious lies and declamations of hatred and abuse. But two women who protest this rank, misogynistic treatment of women are arrested and jailed.
Kids, this is some fucked up shit. I want so much for this prepubescent puke to have to bow to the woman who (hopefully, unless Confederate election rigging wins the day) will kick his flabby Fuckface von Clownstick orange ass.
Go Hillary! And go Neda Topaloski and Jordan Robson!