The Conversation -- February 2, 2025

⭐David Lynch, et al., of the Washington Post: “... Donald Trump on Saturday imposed tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico and China, the nation’s three largest trading partners, invoking emergency economic powers in a high-stakes bid to compel them to crack down on illegal immigration and drugs reaching the United States. The president signed three executive orders establishing the measures, the first official actions of his second-term trade war, according to a White House official who briefed reporters. They drew sharp replies from the leaders of Canada and Mexico, as well as immediate opposition from business and labor groups, which warned of profound upheaval throughout the economy. For the typical U.S. household, the tariffs will mean a loss of about $1,200 in annual purchasing power....” (Also linked yesterday.) The AP's story is here. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: I don't believe for a minute Trump imposed the tariffs to force crackdowns on immigrants & drugs coming into the U.S. He did it because he's a stupid, mean, narcissist, and he doesn't give a flying fuck if he further straps families who can ill-afford to spend another $1,200 a month to purchase necessities. This is a shameful, petty, self-indulgent act. ~~~

     ~~~ Update 1. Paul Krugman: “My guess is that Trump is imposing steep tariffs on Canada and Mexico just to show that he can — that it’s essentially a dominance display. And the many people pointing out that it’s a terrible idea probably only reinforced his determination to show that he’s in charge and smarter than anyone else. [But why is Trump] letting China off easy? We know that Elon Musk has strong business reasons for wanting to treat China gently. Back in November Politico Europe wrote: '... China thinks it has an ace in its back pocket that could help keep Trump’s more robust policies [against China] in check: Tesla CEO Elon Musk, whose company depends on good ties with the Asian country.' It sure looks as if the Chinese judged that correctly, doesn’t it?” Read on. ~~~

     ~~~ Update 2. David Sanger of the New York Times has another theory: “For now, at least, the tariffs, in [Donald Trump's] view, are the point, a means of bolstering the nation’s finances as he simultaneously seeks territorial expansion and strategic advantage over an increasingly assertive China. He said as much in his Inaugural Address, only 12 frenetic days earlier. 'Instead of taxing our citizens to enrich other countries,' he said, 'we will tariff and tax foreign countries to enrich our citizens.' He went on to describe his plan to establish an 'External Revenue Service,' and a few days ago mused to reporters that income taxes might wither away, as tariffs become the main sustenance for America’s $6.8 trillion annual federal budget.” ~~~

     ~~~ The Poor Get Poorer & the Rich Get Richer. Marie: Let's assume that Sanger's analysis is correct (and I don't disagree with it). But what he doesn't say is that a major effect of using tariffs to create a significant revenue stream will be to create an even more regressive tax system. Trump is already planning tax cuts for the rich. With tariffs as a major source of revenue, the poor & middle class will be paying more in taxes (i.e., tariffs) than will the rich because the poor & middle class spend a larger portion of their incomes on purchases of items whose costs will increase because of tariffs.

~~~ Danielle Kaye of the New York Times: “The three countries [-- Canada, Mexico & China --] account for more than a third of the products brought into the United States, supporting tens of millions of American jobs.... All goods imported from Canada and Mexico will be subject to a 25 percent tariff, except Canadian energy products, which will face a 10 percent tariff, according to the executive orders. The orders also placed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods.... In the United States, the largest risks are to farming, fishing, metal and auto production.... Analysts at Goldman Sachs have said that if Mr. Trump proceeds with across-the-board tariffs, it would both raise prices in the United States and slow economic growth. Most economists expect that fresh trade barriers could lead to a temporary burst of higher inflation. The Canadian government has made plans to target orange juice from Florida, whiskey from Tennessee and peanut butter from Kentucky, while Mexico’s president, Claudia Sheinbaum, has said her country is prepared to respond with retaliatory tariffs.” (Also linked yesterday.) ~~~

~~~ David Garcia & Ana Martinez of Reuters: “Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on Saturday ordered retaliatory tariffs in response to the U.S. decision to slap 25% tariffs on all goods coming from Mexico, as a trade war broke out between the two neighbors. In a lengthy post on X, Sheinbaum said her government sought dialogue rather than confrontation with its top trade partner to the north, but that Mexico had been forced to respond in kind.... In her post, Sheinbaum also rejected as 'slander' the White House's allegation that drug cartels have an alliance with the Mexican government, a point Trump's administration used to justify the tariffs.... Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard said on X that Trump's tariffs were a 'flagrant violation' of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement.” ~~~

~~~ Matina Stevis-Gridneff of the New York Times: “Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Canada laid out more than $100 billion in retaliatory tariffs against the United States late Saturday, in a forceful response to ... [Donald] Trump’s decision to impose levies on a range of Canadian goods. But he made clear that Canada was doing so reluctantly. 'We don’t want to be here,' Mr. Trudeau said in a somber televised address from Ottawa that evoked the deep bonds between the two neighbors and close trading partners. 'We didn’t ask for this.' Mr. Trudeau spoke hours after President Trump hit Canada and Mexico with tariffs of 25 percent on all goods, with a partial carve out for Canadian energy and oil exports. Mr. Trudeau said that Canada would swiftly impose its own 'far-reaching' retaliatory tariffs of 25 percent on 155 billion Canadian dollars ($106 billion) worth of U.S. goods. Initial tariffs worth 30 billion Canadian dollars will start on Tuesday, when the U.S. tariffs go into effect, Mr. Trudeau said. That will be followed by tariffs on 125 billion Canadian dollars worth of goods in the next three weeks, a delay he said would allow Canadian businesses to prepare.” ~~~

~~~ CBC News: British Columbia's provincial "Premier David Eby has announced immediate countermeasures in response to incoming U.S. tariffs, saying the province will take action to protect B.C. workers and businesses.... As an initial response, Eby said he has directed the B.C. Liquor Distribution Branch to immediately stop purchasing American liquor from Republican-led 'red states' and remove the top-selling brands from public liquor store shelves."

More on Trump's Stupid Order to “Turn on the Spigot.” Maegan Vazquez & Scott Dance of the Washington Post: “The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has released water from two reservoirs in the foothills of the southern Sierra Nevada to meet ... Donald Trump’s recent directive to funnel more water to Southern California.... Trump ... had falsely blamed water shortages during the [Los Angeles wildfires] on California’s water management policies.... Southern California’s reservoirs are above historical levels, and experts said water released into the Central Valley would not reach Los Angeles.... Sen. Adam Schiff (D-California) called the water releases 'uncoordinated and unwarranted,' writing on X that it’s 'not being directed to LA where the fires are contained. And now, it won’t be available when farmers need it in summer.'” ~~~

~~~ Oh, and here's another way the Trump/Musk administration plans to make wildfires more dangerous in California and around the nation: ~~~

     ~~~ Daniel Wu of the Washington Post: Resignation offers which the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, “sent without warning to most of the country’s federal workers..., incited confusion and alarm for civil servants of various stripes, but it cut particularly deep for federally employed wildland firefighters.... Many were just beginning to recover after battling some of the most destructive fires in California history this month. Now, those firefighters who communities depend on to battle increasingly frequent extreme wildfires are questioning their jobs — and their futures. Federal firefighting teams are already underpaid and suffering from attrition, firefighters and union leaders said. Shrinking those forces, they said, would hamper the country’s ability to respond to another life-threatening blaze as climate change causes fire seasons to lengthen.... The federal government employs around 20,000 seasonal and full-time wildland firefighters....”

Andrew Duehren, et al., of the New York Times: “Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave representatives of the so-called Department of Government Efficiency access to the federal payment system late on Friday, according to five people familiar with the change, handing Elon Musk and [his] team ... a powerful tool to monitor and potentially limit government spending. The new authority follows a standoff this week with a top Treasury official who had resisted allowing Mr. Musk’s lieutenants into the department’s payment system, which sends out money on behalf of the entire federal government. The official, a career civil servant named David Lebryk, was put on leave and then suddenly retired on Friday after the dispute, according to people familiar with his exit. The system could give the Trump administration another mechanism to attempt to unilaterally restrict disbursement of money approved for specific purposes by Congress, a push that has faced legal roadblocks.” (Also linked yesterday.) An AP story is here. ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: This Friday-night heist is far more dangerous than the tariffs Trump just imposed. (1) Most voters probably will not even hear about this, or if they do, it won't register as nearly as important as the tariffs Trump just imposed. (2) If people ever get up-in-arms about this, it won't be till they miss their first Social Security check or can't get their EBT cards (food stamps). (3) The tariffs are monumentally stupid, but Trump can legally impose them. Giving non-government employees access to the nation's checkbook, with an eye toward tearing it up, is illegal and unconstitutional. (4) This is a revolutionary act, a piece of the (so far) bloodless coup in which Trump's buddies are taking over another branch of government. Oh, and don't think that the kleptocrats won't write themselves checks. They probably won't do it right away, but if they get comfy enough controlling the purse strings, they'll find a little somethin' somethin' in it for their troubles. ~~~

     ~~~ P.S. I know many of you think I must look pretty silly running around with my hair on fire. But Trump told us many of the terrible things he would do, and now he has the impulse and the means to do most of them. Remember that many a monstrous dictator took control of his country by legal means (Hitler) and with a great deal of public support (Mussolini). ~~~

     ~~~ digby: "As Josh Marshall said in this earlier post, this is almost certainly illegal and there needs to be immediate legal action to stop it. We have no idea who these people are, whether they are competent or if they have nefarious goals. It’s literally just Musk’s boys taking over the very closely held US payment system. It could not be more dangerous."

The Resistance Begins to Emerge. Ken Dilanian, et al., of NBC News: “Acting FBI Director Brian Driscoll on Friday refused a Justice Department order that he assist in the firing of agents involved in Jan. 6 riot cases, pushing back so forcefully that some FBI officials feared he would be dismissed, multiple current and former FBI officials told NBC News. The Justice Department ultimately did not dismiss Driscoll, the head of the bureau’s Newark field office who is temporarily serving as its acting director. Kash Patel..., [Donald] Trump's pick for FBI director and a critic of the bureau's investigations of Trump and Jan. 6th rioters, will take over if he is confirmed by the Senate. During his confirmation hearing on Thursday, Patel testified under oath that no FBI officials would be retaliated against. 'All FBI employees will be protected against political retribution,' Patel told Senators.”

Driscoll was told Thursday he had to turn over the names of the thousands of FBI employees who worked on January 6 investigation, but it is not clear he will do so. Instead, “In a message that circulated widely among bureau personnel, an FBI agent summarized what happened as: 'Bottom line — DOJ came over and wanted to fire a bunch of J6 agents. Driscoll is an absolute stud. Held his ground and told WH proxy, DOJ, to F--- Off.'... Legal experts said that few, if any, of the firings carried out so far by the Trump administration have been legal under civil service laws because the employees were not afforded due process.”

Stacy Cowley of the New York Times: “The director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, Rohit Chopra, was fired on Saturday, prematurely ending a five-year term that was scheduled to run through late 2026.... Mr. Chopra expected to be fired immediately after President Trump took office, but he improbably hung on for nearly two weeks, even as the president ousted scores of other agency leaders. He used that time to impose a $2 million fine on a money transmitter and release reports on auto lending costs, specialty credit reporting companies and rent payment data. When Congress created the consumer bureau in 2011 — to increase oversight of mortgage loans and other financial products in the aftermath of the Great Recession — it included guardrails to protect the agency’s independence and shield it from shifting political tides. But the Supreme Court ruled in 2020 that the president was free to fire the agency’s director without cause, which cleared the way for the bureau’s leadership to change with each presidential administration.” MB: Once again: thanks, Supremes! (Also linked yesterday.) 

Erica Green & Zach Montague of the New York Times: “The Education Department placed dozens of employees on administrative leave on Friday, citing guidance from the Office of Personnel Management, which had directed agencies to submit plans for shedding staff associated with diversity, equity and inclusion efforts by the end of the day. In letters obtained by The New York Times, the department notified affected employees that they would lose access to their email accounts, but would continue to receive pay for an indefinite period.... According to interviews with those placed on leave and people familiar with the notifications, the department appeared to have cast a wide net, suspending people whose job titles and official duties had no connection to D.E.I., and whose only apparent exposure to D.E.I. initiatives came in the form of trainings encouraged by their managers. One of the training workshops that employees speculated may have led to their being flagged took place more than nine years ago.” MB: At least one of those placed on leave is a white man, but I'll betcha a lot of the dumpees are women and/or minorities. ~~~

Laura Meckler, et al., of the Washington Post: “The effort is not limited to the Education Department. In Trump’s first two weeks in office, the drive to rid the federal government of anything associated with diversity or equity has ricocheted throughout federal agencies.... At the Energy Department, more than a dozen employees in one of the agency’s regional 'culture' offices were put on administrative leave, but only three of them held DEI roles, according to three Energy Department staffers and personnel logs. And at the Office of Personnel Management, several employees who had previously taken part in DEI initiatives but who were not doing DEI work when Trump’s executive order was issued were also put on leave.... Late Friday, newly confirmed Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth ordered the agency to stop commemorating cultural celebrations such as Black History Month. The message to staff was headlined: 'Identity Months Dead at DoD.' On Thursday, the FBI directed janitorial staff at Quantico to paint over a multicolored mural that once featured the words 'FAIRNESS,' 'LEADERSHIP,' 'INTEGRITY,' 'COMPASSION' and 'DIVERSITY.'” (Thanks to RAS for the illustration.) ~~~

Karoon Demirjian of the New York Times: “The website for the U.S. Agency for International Development went dark Saturday afternoon as lawmakers and aid workers, already reeling over the recent freezes to foreign assistance and the suspension of senior officials, braced for the possibility that the agency might be shut down. A slimmed-down page for U.S.A.I.D. appeared on the State Department’s website Saturday afternoon, suggesting that the agency’s activities — which are currently severely limited — had been brought under the State Department’s umbrella.... Mr. Trump has made no secret of his disdain for the scope of American foreign aid, arguing that sending taxpayer dollars overseas runs counter to his America first agenda.” Read on.

Michael Crowley of the New York Times: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio is traveling to Central America on Saturday, kicking off his first official trip with a visit to Panama amid tensions over President Trump’s threats to seize control of the Panama Canal. Mr. Rubio’s plan to visit four Central American nations, along with the Dominican Republic, reflects the Trump administration’s intense focus on halting illegal immigration across the U.S.-Mexico border, as well as the influence migration will have on American diplomacy in the coming years. Mr. Rubio’s other planned stops are El Salvador, Guatemala and Costa Rica.... The trip’s highlight is likely to be Mr. Rubio’s visit to Panama, which will include a stop at the Panama Canal, State Department officials said. That sets up a potentially tense dynamic with Panamanian leaders, who say they are unwilling even to discuss transferring control of the canal.” ~~~

     ~~~ John Hudson of the Washington Post: “Secretary of State Marco Rubio arrived in Panama on Saturday with a lofty assignment: Retake the Panama Canal.... Trump hasn’t equivocated — 'we’re taking it back,' he declared at his inaugural address — and Rubio isn’t giving the game away. 'The president’s been pretty clear he wants to administer the canal again,' he told podcaster Megyn Kelly on Thursday.... Trump’s refusal to rule out the use of military force to retake the canal has angered leaders in Latin America, wary of Washington’s checkered history of military occupation and CIA overthrows in Central America and the Caribbean during the 20th century.” MB: I would not call the imperialistic violation of our treaty with Panama “a lofty assignment.”

Herb Scribner of the Washington Post: “The Pentagon said late Friday night that it plans to annually rotate news organizations into dedicated office spaces to make room for other outlets, replacing some legacy media. The memo sent Friday evening to Pentagon reporters, signed by Pentagon senior communications official Jonathan Ullyot, said that NBC News, the New York Times, NPR and Politico will cede their office space to the New York Post, Breitbart News, One America News and HuffPost. This is the first switch for what the Pentagon deemed the 'Annual Media Rotation Program,' which will swap news outlets from print, TV, radio and online news for other organizations that have not had the opportunity to report from the office space, according to the memo. The new guidance takes effect on Feb. 14.... Generally, all credentialed reporters can still work from the Pentagon, though they won’t have a specific desk to use....

“The biggest impact might be for NBC News, as the Pentagon has dedicated box areas for CNN, Fox News, ABC and NBC for live broadcasts. The decision to remove NBC comes after the outlet reported during Pete Hegseth’s confirmation hearing that his former Fox colleagues were concerned about his drinking and claims that his second wife feared for her safety.”

Nazi Transportation Suck-up Board. David McAfee of the Raw Story: "The NTSB said over the weekend that it would only be announcing news about major aircraft accidents on one particular social media platform. 'For media covering the airplane crashes in Washington and Philadelphia — all NTSB updates about news conferences or other investigative information will be posted to this X account,' the agency wrote. 'We will not be distributing information via email.'... Atlanta News First investigator Brendan Keefe said, 'The NTSB is requiring a free press to join a private website run by a presidential appointee in order to access public information about the worst US air disaster in a generation.'... A popular lawyer known as southpaw said, 'This amounts to a federal subsidy of this platform — which is owned by the president’s biggest donor, who as it happens has made it into a gathering place for Nazis.'... Brian Beutler ... [writes,] 'An aggressive litigant can get this enjoined Monday,' he wrote on Saturday. 'From there, make it hurt; make the Supreme Court say Republican presidents can privatize government communication on the platforms of their Nazi-aligned donors.'" Thanks to RAS for the link.

Reid Epstein & Shane Goldmacher of the New York Times: “The Democratic National Committee on Saturday elected Ken Martin as its chairman, tapping a low-profile political insider from Minnesota to guide the party forward after its crushing defeats last fall.” MB: I hope he proves me wrong, but I have a sense this guy doesn't have a clue. He seems to be operating out of the same playbook that Democrats have relied on since the New Deal.

~~~~~~~~~~

Israel's Wars. The Washington Post's live updates of developments Sunday in Israel's wars are here: “Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu departed for Washington early Sunday to meet with ... Donald Trump, in what will be the U.S. leader’s first meeting with a foreign head of state since returning to the White House last month.... The Israeli army expanded an already major operation in the occupied West Bank, it said on Sunday, adding that it entered two new villages Sunday and killed 'a number of terrorists' in three airstrikes the previous day.... The Rafah border crossing between Gaza and Egypt opened for the first time in eight months on Saturday, allowing for the medical evacuation of 34 children and three adults.... Syria’s interim leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, made his first trip abroad on Sunday, traveling to Saudi Arabia alongside his government’s foreign minister, Asaad al-Shaibani. The visit reinforces a major diplomatic shift for Syria, a country that until Bashar al-Assad was overthrown in December, held Iran as its main regional ally.”