The Commentariat -- Nov. 1, 2015

Internal links removed.

Scott Wong of the Hill: "New Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) on Sunday dismissed Democrats' calls for a paid family leave law as another 'federal entitlement,' and said his position isn't at odds with recent remarks that he wants to spend weekends with his young family in Wisconsin.... Ryan has said he wouldn't be like other modern Speakers who criss-cross the country on weekends to raise cash for the party; instead, he said he'll return home each weekend to his native Janesville, Wis., where his wife and three children live. But Democrats pounced on him, saying he's a hypocrite for wanting time with his own family while denying mandatory paid time off for other hard-working Americans."

Matt Sedensky & Nomann Merchant of the AP: "In a yearlong investigation of sexual misconduct by U.S. law enforcement, The Associated Press uncovered about 1,000 officers who lost their badges in a six-year period for rape, sodomy and other sexual assault; sex crimes that included possession of child pornography; or sexual misconduct such as propositioning citizens or having consensual but prohibited on-duty intercourse." ...

... Here the AP cites "10 cases from across the U.S. that reflect how such crimes can occur, and the devastation they leave behind. Most of the officers have been convicted and are serving time. Some await trial."

Diane Horvath-Cosper, in a Washington Post op-ed: "m an obstetrician-gynecologist. Among the many medical services I provide my patients, I perform abortions for women who need them. That's made me a target for harassment online and in person over the course of my career.... Last year, a survey conducted for the Feminist Majority Foundation found that nearly 20 percent of clinics have been subject to the most severe types of anti-abortion violence, including stalking, facility invasions and blockades.... Americans of good conscience can disagree about the morality of abortion, but we should all agree that no physicians ought to be terrorized for doing their jobs."

Guardian: "Secretary of State John Kerry said on Saturday American special operations troops being sent to Syria would only fight Islamic State militants and would not become involved in the country's long-running civil war. As he did so, US-backed rebels attacked Isis in the north-east of the country. Deputy secretary of state Antony Blinken, meanwhile, told a policy conference in Bahrain Moscow's intervention in the Syrian conflict would have the unintended consequences of drawing Russia into a quagmire and alienating Sunni Muslims across the region."

Presidential Race

John Wagner of the Washington Post: "Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) said Saturday that he thinks the Democratic race for the White House has become too personal as supporters of Hillary Rodham Clinton have accused him and his campaign of taking on a sexist tone. 'I do, and I think that is unfortunate,' Sanders told reporters at a news conference called [in Concord, N.H.,] to tout endorsements from a statewide postal workers union and two local trade unions.... Sanders has been fending off suggestions of sexism from Clinton boosters since late last week, when Clinton took issue with one of Sanders's comments on gun control from the first Democratic debate in Las Vegas. Sanders said that he favors sensible solutions to reduce violence but told Clinton that 'all the shouting in the world is not going to do what I hope all of us want.'"

Nick Gass of Politico picks out the "13 must-read Clinton e-mails." CW: If you don't read them, you'll survive. They sound like your e-mails & mine, except Ben Affleck never writes to me (as far as I recall). Also, I never want to learn how to access emoticons. I'd like to learn how to get rid of them, tho -- they pop up when I try to put letters or in parentheses. 😒

Seinfeld on the Potomac -- A Party about Nothing. David McCabe of the Hill: "mer Sen. Richard Lugar (R-Ind.) says he saw 'very little substance' on display at Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate. 'I felt that the entire portion that I watched, maybe the first hour and 20 minutes, once again was a good bit of showmanship. Very little substance in terms of what candidates are prepared to do for this country,' he [said]...." ...

, Ctd. Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "With 10 Republican presidential candidates together at a forum [in Des Moines, Iowa,] on Saturday, three days after their raucous debate in Colorado, several took shots at their new common enemy: the debate moderators, eliciting loud applause from hundreds of Iowa voters.... But some other candidates ... argu[ed] that facing critical questions is part of auditioning for the job of presidential nominee. 'If you can't handle that stage, you’ve got no chance of handling Hillary Clinton,' said Gov. Chris Christie...." ...

... Bradford Richardson of the Hill: "Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) says the moderators at CNBC's GOP presidential debate were 'left-wing operatives' trying to weaken Republican presidential candidates. He added future debates should be hosted by moderators who have voted in the Republican primary at least once in their lives." CW: Yeah. Like Tea Party-instigator Rick Santelli & supply-sider Larry Kudlow (who is running as a Republican for the Senate). This doesn't show how right-wing Ted is; it shows what a grifter he is. He's fundraising on standing up to "left-wing operatives."

     ... So then Cruz said that instead of having to endure the "attacks" of "left-wing liberals" (a tautology, but so what?), the debates should be moderated by "real journalists." C'mon, Ted, name names: "[He] suggested a debate should be hosted by conservative radio hosts Sean Hannity, Rush Limbaugh and Mark Levin." Real journalists, all. ...

... Dave Weigel, et al., of the Washington Post: "The list of possible reforms to future Republican debates is growing as several campaigns get ready for a Sunday evening meeting in a northern Virginia hotel. There's one point of agreement: Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus has let them down, and it is time for the candidates to take over the process."

I say this somewhat in jest, at least there was someone who fared worse in the last debate than me: CNBC. I know I have to get better. I don't have this gigantic ego that says, 'Well they're just stupid. Iowa voters don't understand me.' But also, I'm a really competitive guy. -- Jeb Bush, at a Des Moines, Iowa, rally, Saturday ...

... Maureen Dowd, as is her wont, psychoanalyzes the Dubya & Jeb! dynamic.

Beyond the Beltway

Matt Steiner of the Colorado Springs Gazette: "Gunfire rang out Saturday morning east of downtown Colorado Springs, leaving bullet-riddled bodies lying in ... North Prospect Street and in front of a Wendy's restaurant.... Police confirmed Saturday afternoon that three victims were killed by a gunman with a rifle. The suspected shooter was killed in a shootout with police. He was gunned down by Colorado Springs police after he apparently turned and began shooting at police."

News Ledes

Washington Post: "A Russian plane that crashed in Egypt over the weekend broke up in midair, a senior Russian aviation official said after visiting the crash site in the Sinai Peninsula on Sunday. All 224 people aboard were killed. It was too early to tell what caused the disaster, said Viktor Sorochenko, an official with the Interstate Aviation Committee, according to Russia's Interfax news agency."

BBC News: "A Bangladeshi publisher of secular books has been hacked to death in the capital Dhaka in the second attack of its kind on Saturday, police say. Faisal Arefin Dipon, 43, was killed at his office in the city centre, hours after another publisher and two secular writers were injured in an attack. A local affiliate of al-Qaeda said it carried out the attacks. There has been a series of attacks on secularists since blogger Avijit Roy was hacked to death in February."

AP: "Searchers using high-tech sonars have discovered the deep-water wreckage of a vessel believed to be the cargo ship El Faro, which went missing Oct. 1 with 33 crewmembers during Hurricane Joaquin, the U.S. National Transportation Safety Board said late Saturday. The federal agency said the wreckage is some 15,000 feet below the water's surface and its identity still must be confirmed by sending down a remotely operated deep ocean vehicle."

Guardian: "Turkish voters are going to the polls in parliamentary elections that could end more than a decade of single-party rule by the Justice and Development party (AKP). Voting stations around the country opened on Sunday morning in the snap elections, which were called by the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, after negotiations to form a coalition with the opposition following an inconclusive vote in June fell apart." ...

     ... New York Times UPDATE: "In a stunning electoral comeback, the Islamist party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan regained its majority in Parliament on Sunday, ensuring Mr. Erdogan's continued dominance of Turkish politics after months of political turmoil and violence. The result will permit Mr. Erdogan to maintain his position as the country's pre-eminent political figure while pushing the boundaries of the constitutional limits of the presidency, a largely ceremonial position."

The Commentariat -- October 31, 2015

Internal links removed.

Mike Luckovich of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.

Robert Pear & Amy Goodnough of the New York Times: "Health insurance consumers logging into HealthCare.gov on Sunday for the first day of the Affordable Care Act's third open enrollment season may be in for sticker shock, unless they are willing to shop around. Federal officials acknowledged on Friday that many people would need to pick new plans to avoid substantial increases in premiums.

White House: "In this week's address, the President spoke to the need for meaningful criminal justice reform in America":

Helene Cooper & Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Obama will deploy a small number of American Special Operations forces to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria, a United States official said. The White House is expected to make the announcement on Friday...." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Scott Wong of the Hill: "President Barack Obama placed a call to John Boehner on his penultimate day as Speaker..... 'He said, "Boehner, man, I'm gonna miss you,"' Boehner recalled in an interview broadcast Friday on Fox News. 'Yes you are Mr. President. Yes you are,' Boehner replied." CW: Because they both know Paul Ryan is a lying, backstabbing weasel & confederate tool. ...

... An example of which was, not surprisingly, quickly forthcoming. Nicole Duran of the Washington Examiner: "It would be 'ridiculous' to bring up legislation aimed at overhauling the country's immigration laws to the House floor when 'a president that we can't trust' is in office, Ryan told a small group of Wisconsin reporters during a conference call Friday morning. Ryan has previously supported some immigration reform legislation. But without consensus among Republicans on 'such a controversial issue,' he won't bring any legislation to the floor except border security provisions, Ryan said." Via Paul Waldman. ...

... CW: Ryan does not tell the reporters he signed a pledge letter to the Crazy Caucus, promising not to bring up immigration reform while President Obama was in office. Then he blames the "untrustworthy" President for his refusal to stand up to the wingers in his own party. As I said, before I read Duran's report, he's "a lying, backstabbing weasel & confederate tool." And he proved it one sentence the day after he became speaker.

... digby: "By the way, [Boehner] still blames the president for the grand Bargain falling apart. It isn't true. The House wingnuts ruined that one. Thank goodness."

You're Screwed! Jessica Silver-Greenberg & Robert Gebeloff of the New York Times: "By banning class actions, companies have essentially disabled consumer challenges to practices like predatory lending, wage theft and discrimination, court records show. 'This is among the most profound shifts in our legal history,' William G. Young, a federal judge in Boston who was appointed by President Ronald Reagan, said in an interview. 'Ominously, business has a good chance of opting out of the legal system altogether and misbehaving without reproach.'... More than a decade in the making, the move to block class actions was engineered by a Wall Street-led coalition of credit card companies and retailers.... One of the players behind the scenes, The Times found, was John G. Roberts Jr.," who represented Discover Bank. CW: Roberts has a new job now.

Rachel Swarns of the New York Times: "Outlawed decades ago, redlining has re-emerged as a serious concern among regulators as banks have sharply retreated from providing home loans to African-Americans in the wake of the financial crisis. Over just the past 12 months, federal, state and city officials have successfully required banks to expand minority lending programs and, in some instances, to pay penalties as part of redlining settlements in Buffalo; Milwaukee; Providence, R.I.; Rochester; and St. Louis. And more banks are facing scrutiny. The Justice Department now has more active redlining investigations underway than at any other time in the past seven years, officials said."

** Larry Thompson, a deputy AG in the Bush II administration, in a New York Times op-ed: "On Monday, the Supreme Court will hear oral arguments in Foster v. Chatman, a case that challenges the all-too-common practice by which prosecutors deliberately exclude African-Americans from criminal juries. The Supreme Court tried to outlaw this practice in 1986 through its landmark ruling in Batson v. Kentucky. But prosecutors routinely ignore that decision, excluding black jurors because of marital status, manner of dress, last names and other allegedly 'race neutral' reasons.... Interracial juries make fewer factual errors, deliberate longer and consider a wider variety of perspectives than all-white juries, according to several studies.... In 2010, the Equal Justice Initiative, a nonprofit law firm, studied eight Southern states -- Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South Carolina and Tennessee -- and found the problem to be rampant."

Alex Thompson in Politico Magazine: "Voters have accepted all sorts of behavioral warts and missteps in their political candidates.... Yet one large taboo remains stubbornly fixed -- mental illness.... For a president or a candidate, it's the 'kiss of death,; says Burton Lee, George H.W. Bush's presidential physician.... Yet, a review of the historical record finds that past commanders in chief, even well-regarded ones, struggled with mental health problems throughout their presidencies.... [Richard] Nixon and John F. Kennedy clandestinely filled their medicine cabinets with psychotropic drugs, recently uncovered documents reveal."

Gail Collins: "... it's absolutely crazy that the bigger [drones] -- the ones capable of flying in the same airspace as a helicopter or dropping a mystery package on a nuclear power plant -- aren't being licensed and strictly regulated.... A drone flew over the Oklahoma State Penitentiary this week, carrying a bundle of drugs and hacksaw blades dangling from a fishing line. Fortunately, it crashed before any inmates could grab the loot. Meanwhile, a drone flew into power lines in West Hollywood and knocked one to the ground, leaving about 700 customers without electricity.... When recreational drones first came on the market, Congress ... basically told the F.A.A. to keep its hands off.... You shouldn't be able to go on the web, make three clicks and -- with no training whatsoever -- buy a product that could threaten public safety. That's only true for drones. And of course, in some states, handguns."

This video was headed for Infotainment. Until I listened to it:

In the Wake of ISIS. Liz Sly of the Washington Post: "When Islamic State fighters fled [Tal Abyad, a] northern Syrian town in June, they took with them the electricity generators, the water pumps, the hospital equipment and pretty much everything else that had helped sustain the semblance that they ran a functioning state. They left behind their graffiti, their instruments of torture, the block of wood on which they beheaded their victims, the cage in which they punished smokers -- and a community riven with suspicion and distrust. Today, Tal Abyad is a tense and troubled place. Its new Kurdish masters are seeking to assert their control over a mixed town that, at least until recently, had an Arab majority -- some of whom were not entirely unhappy to be governed by the Islamic State.... As the U.S. military prepares to deploy 50 Special Operations troops to the vicinity ahead of a new focus on the Islamic State's self-styled capital of Raqqa, 60 miles to the south, Tal Abyad represents something of a test also for a strategy that will rely heavily on the Kurdish People's Protection Units, or YPG, to take control of Arab areas."

Jodi Rudoren of the New York Times: "After more than a week of local and international condemnation, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel issued a statement on Friday retracting his accusation that it was a Palestinian cleric who gave Hitler the idea of annihilating Europe's Jews during World War II.... 'Contrary to the impression that was created, I did not mean to claim that in his conversation with Hitler in November 1941 the Mufti convinced him to adopt the Final Solution. The Nazis decided on that by themselves.'"

Presidential Race

Margaret Newkirk of Bloomberg: "Speaking to several hundred black college students in Georgia, Hillary Clinton on Friday promised to fight racial profiling, private prisons and the practice of asking about criminal records on initial job applications. The former secretary of state and Democratic front-runner spoke over loud chants of 'black lives matter' and opposing cries of 'let her talk' as protesters interrupted the event at Clark Atlanta University." ...

... Justin Fishel of ABC News: "Today's release of over 7,000 pages of Hillary Clinton email marks the halfway point for the State Department, which is attempting to meet a federal court's mandate to release all 55,000 pages of her email collection by January 2016. The department has now published roughly 27,000 pages of her emails on its public records website that were once stored on Clinton's now-infamous private server.... Most of the emails available for review online tend to contain more of the same: mundane yet sometimes entertaining communications between Clinton and her aides."

Michael Shear & Michael Schmidt of the New York Times: "The White House will try to block the release of a handful of emails between President Obama and former Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton, citing longstanding precedent invoked by presidents of both parties to keep presidential communications confidential, officials said Friday. The State Department discovered the emails between Mr. Obama and Mrs. Clinton as part of its effort to release the former secretary's emails, several thousand more of which were scheduled to be made public on Friday. Mr. Obama's correspondence was forwarded for review to the White House, which has decided against release." ...

     ... Update. Julia Edwards of Reuters: "The White House will not allow the release of emails exchanged between President Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton from when she was secretary of state, a senior administration official said on Friday. The emails may be withheld until after Obama leaves office under the Presidential Records Act, according to the White House, which governs public access to the president's records."

New York Times Editors: "... none [of the Republican presidential candidates] has a tax plan coherent enough to be the basis of a substantive discussion, let alone one that could meet the nation's challenges.... Quick-and-dirty calculations of proposals from Jeb Bush, Donald Trump, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz show red ink running into the trillions of dollars.... The tax proposals from Jeb Bush, Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, while not as fantastical as those of Mr. Cruz and [Ben] Carson, all make big and broad cuts, mostly to benefit the wealthiest Americans, including an end to the estate tax, cuts in tax rates and enhanced tax breaks for investments.... All of these candidates deny fiscal reality.... The Democratic candidates ... have called for high-end tax increases, while keeping proposed tax cuts targeted on low- or middle-income Americans. They have also called for new taxes on financial transactions. Most important, their tax plans are part of broader economic proposals to raise wages, including support for a higher minimum wage, unions, expanded profit-sharing and employee ownership."

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. -- President Harry Truman

-- 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate

Abby Phillip & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "With GOP anger over CNBC's handling of Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate boiling over, the Republican National Committee announced Friday that it was suspending its partnership with NBC News for an upcoming debate in February.In a letter to NBC News Chairman Andrew Lack, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said that their relationship for the debate, scheduled for Feb. 26 at the University of Houston, was on hold 'pending further discussion.'" Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Ashley Parker & Emily Steel of the New York Times: "The letter [from Priebus] seemed to be an attempt at damage control by the R.N.C., which many of the candidates felt had bungled its handling of the Republican debate process, after taking a more active role and 'sanctioning' debates' this year." ...

... "GOP Suspends NBC Debate Because Questions Might Be Too Hard." Jaime Fuller of New York: "Priebus also noted that the 'moderators engaged in a series of "gotcha" questions, petty and mean-spirited in tone, and designed to embarrass our candidates. What took place Wednesday night was not an attempt to give the American people a greater understanding of our candidates' policies and ideas.' He did not add that the American people would have also gained a fuller portrait of the candidates' ideas if they had not evaded, ignored, or lied in response to many of the actual policy questions they were asked, and he didn't note that the idea that a 'gotcha' question includes the entire universe of queries that could point out the weaknesses of a campaign is a disputed one." ...

... Here You Are Bid to Imagine Prince Rebus as a Tough Guy. Stop Smilng. Colin Campbell of Business Insider: "Reince Priebus ... even called the debate a 'crap sandwich' during an interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity. 'I just can't tell you how pissed off I am,' Priebus said. 'It was a insanity. I mean just sitting there, seething through this thing ... thinking about hitting the circuit breaker in the auditorium -- it crossed my mind.'" ...

     ... If your imagination can't stretch that far, you can see the Hannity segment here. Hannity doesn't let Priebus speak till 2:43 minutes in. Just as well. ...

... Ed Kilgore: "In a pretty classic case of letting itself be panicked into a precipitous action by the excitement of the moment, the RNC has announced it has canceled the February 26 debate that was going to be cosponsored by NBC in order to punish the parent network for the behavior of the CNBC moderators of Wednesday night's event.... The RNC may ultimately regret setting the precedent of letting the inmates -- er, the candidates -- run the asylum -- er, the debate system.... It's ironic that the network that employs Larry Kudlow and Rick Santelli is now perpetually labeled as the agent of godless progressivism...." ...

... "Republicans Very Upset At How Bad They Looked on Wednesday." Kevin Drum: "CNBC did screw up, but mostly by failing to keep the toddlers on stage under control and being poorly prepared to deal with brazen lies delivered with a straight face.... But conservative grievance culture is once again demanding someone's head on a platter. After all, if conservatives look bad on television it's gotta be someone else's fault, right?... Jeebus. And these guys claim that they're the steely-eyed folks who can take down Putin and the ayatollah? What a bunch of crybabies." ...

... digby: "In other news, they are all very, very macho dudes who will defeat ISIS with their bare hands." ...

... Joan McCarter of Daily Kos: "What every candidate wants, apparently, is a forum to provide extended campaign commercials without anyone asking them questions about stuff they've done and said that might give voters some insight as to what kind of job they'd do as president." ...

... Ashley Parker: "Republican presidential candidates will not give opening statements at the next debate, hosted by the Fox Business Network, but they will have more time to respond to questions -- 90 seconds in their initial answer, and a 60-second rebuttal -- according to an internal logistics memo the network sent to the campaigns on Friday. The candidates will also be allowed 30-second closing statements...."...

     ... Puppies & Rainbows. CW: In lieu of opening statements, each candidate will be allowed to air a two-minute campaign video with stock images of amber waves of grain & inspirational music. The candidates will be permitted to prescreen the questions & reject any they deem "offensive," "challenging" or "inappropriate." The hosts will assume everything the candidates say is factual. Candidates are asked to criticize Hillary Clinton, Bernie Sanders & Barack Obama, but not each other.

Billionaire Ballot. Maggie Haberman & Nicholas Confessore of the New York Times: "One of the wealthiest and most influential Republican donors in the country is throwing his support to Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, a decision that could swing millions of dollars in contributions behind Mr. Rubio at a critical point in the Republican nominating battle. The decision by the donor, Paul Singer, a billionaire New York investor, is a signal victory for Mr. Rubio in his battle with his rival Jeb Bush for the affections of major Republican patrons and the party's business wing. It comes as a major blow to Mr. Bush...." ...

... Ed Kilgore: Marco Rubio is "going to have to survive a real vetting, and the question is whether it will come from the media or from the campaign of a rival. The raw materials are there for some real problems: the man has a history of shaky personal finances, misuse of other people's money, and reliance on politically connected sugar daddies. He also has a generic response that fits in nicely with his son-of-a-bartender-and-a-maid aspirational message: unlike many of his rivals, he's not a trust fund baby or the son and brother of presidents, and hasn't worked for Lehman Brothers or married someone who works for Goldman Sachs. So yeah, he's struggled to pay bills.... In conservative mythology there's a fine line, of course, between 'struggling to pay bills' and being an undisciplined freeloader who can't be trusted to meet his obligations." ...

Laura Clawson of Daily Kos: "A crucial part of Marco Rubio's big debate victory came directly out of his ability to lie with conviction and an innocent look in his eye. Not just about his tax plan, but about his own personal finances.... [In response to a question about his personal finances, Rubio said] 'Well, you just -- you just listed a litany of discredited attacks from Democrats and my political opponents, and I'm not gonna waste 60 seconds detailing them all.' Discredited attacks? As Florida Republican Joe Scarborough said Thursday morning: 'Marco just flat-out lied to the American people, there.... And I was stunned that the moderators didn't stop there and go, "Wait a second, these are court records. What are you talking about?:... Whatever you make of Rubio's personal finances, pay attention to his lying. Because he didn't flinch, he didn't equivocate." ...

... Sean Sullivan, et al., of the Washington Post track the 17-year relationship of Mutt & Jeb!, one that had its apparent climax in this week's GOP debate. If either of these jerks becomes the GOP nominee, it will be interesting to see to what extent the other supports him.

... Alex Isenstadt of Politico: "On Thursday evening, U.S. News published a 112-page document that the Bush campaign provided to donors.... [Linked in yesterday's Commentariat.] The document highlights the campaign's plans to target Rubio.... The document says that 'Those who have looked into Marco's background in the past have been concerned with what they have found.' U.S. News, citing an anonymous Bush aide, said the reference was to 'concerns Mitt Romney's team unearthed when they vetted Rubio for vice president in 2012.'... 'As the senior Romney advisor who handled VP vetting and had access to all the vetting documents, I can say that Senator Rubio "passed" our vetting and we found nothing that disqualified him from serving as VP,' wrote [Beth] Myers, who counts herself a Bush supporter. 'The Bush aide referred to in this article is simply wrong.'" ...

... Caitlin Cruz of TPM: "The chief operating officer of former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush's struggling presidential campaign is out, according to a Friday report in the Wall Street Journal. Christine Ciccone was responsible for logistics and got paid about $12,000 a month."

Liar, Liar, Liar. Steve Benen: "Republican presidential hopeful Carly Fiorina has a new op-ed in the Wall Street Journal, insisting that the economy under President Obama is terrible.... As proof of her thesis, the failed former business executive points to the national debt (which isn't the economy), the complexity of the tax code (which also isn't the economy), the rate of small business closures (which is wildly misleading), and the notion that 92% of the jobs lost during Obama's first term belonged to women (which is a ridiculous claim recycled from Mitt Romney's mendacious talking points).... But the real gem in the piece had ... to do with a claim from his would-be Democratic successor.'... Hillary Clinton said on Oct. 13 in the first Democratic presidential debate, "The economy does better when you have a Democrat in the White House,"....' [Fiorina's] op-ed makes no effort whatsoever to contest the accuracy of Clinton's historical claim; she simply expressed incredulity, as if the claim couldn't possibly be true." But it is. ...

... CW: This is perhaps the No. 1 sales pitch for Democratic candidates. They must do more to hammer it home. When I first read fairly irrefutable proof that the economy did better under Democratic administrations, it surprised me, too -- first, because I believed the common wisdom that "Presidents can't really do anything about the economy, but they get credit or blame for it," and second, because the "common sense" conclusion would seem to be that the economy should do better under a pro-business, Republican administration. "For years the pollsters have found that most voters believe the Republicans do better with the economy." (Arthur Blaustein, 2012) Democrats must disabuse voters of this erroneous "common sense" belief, & teach them new "common sense" lessons: (1) "business" ≠ "the economy"; (2) increasing the incomes of millions & millions of Americans improves the economy more than does increasing the incomes of the rich & super-rich; & (3) a well-regulated business environment creates a more stable economy than one which permits crooks & liars to get the best of consumers & honest businesspeople.

Jim Webb, in a Washington Post op-ed, makes the case for an independent presidential candidacy, even though he has not decided whether or not he'll run. CW: "Running," for him, seemed to mean "show up at a debate". At least he won't be subject to that humiliating exercise if he runs as an independent.

Gubernatorial Race

Sheryl Gay Stolberg of the New York Times: "... nervous [Kentucky] Republicans are trying to decide whether their candidate [Matt Bevin] is a charismatic conservative who captures the anti-establishment instincts of the electorate, or a loose cannon capable of alienating voters from both parties in a state that is trending Republican. Mr. Bevin, a wealthy Louisville businessman, a Tea Party favorite and a political novice locked in a tight race with Attorney General Jack Conway, a Democrat, upended the Republican status quo in May when he squeaked past three other candidates to win a primary by 83 votes."

Beyond the Beltway

Ryan Felton of the Guardian: "St Louis police have arrested an individual in connection with a spate of arson cases at predominantly black churches. The suspect, a 35-year-old black male, was taken into custody on Thursday, said Schron Jackson, spokesperson for the St Louis police department." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Wesley Lowery of the Washington Post: "On Thursday night, just four days before the former Austin police officer was set to stand trial, a federal judge in Texas dismissed a manslaughter charge against Charles Kleinert in the 2013 shooting death of Larry Jackson Jr., an unarmed black man. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel cites a little known 1889 case that determined federal agents can be granted immunity from state criminal charges and undoes one of a handful of indictments handed down to police officers out of the thousands of fatal police shootings that have occurred in recent years." Kleinert "was a member of an FBI task force.... Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg said Thursday night that she has yet to determine if she will appeal the ruling." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

News Ledes

New York Times: "A Russian passenger airplane carrying 224 people crashed early Saturday in the central Sinai Peninsula, according to officials in Cairo and Moscow." ...

     ... New Lede: "All 224 people aboard a Russian airliner that crashed in Egypt early Saturday have been confirmed dead, officials say."

... The Guardian is liveblogging developments: "An Egyptian security officer has told Reuters he could hear the voices of trapped passengers from a section of the crashed Russian plane. The plane reportedly split into two parts." ...

... Washington Post Update: "Islamic State affiliate in the Sinai Peninsula claims to have brought down the plane in a statement circulated online on Saturday. The statement did not specify how the militants claimed to have caused the plane to crash.... And Russian officials say they have opened an investigation for gross negligence and safety violations that may have led to the crash.... Still, Air France-KLM and German carrier Lufthansa both said Saturday that they would avoid flying over the Sinai Peninsula due to the unclear circumstances of the crash, the Reuters news agency reported."

Washington Post: "A multi-day operation in southern Afghanistan this month that involved 200 Special Operations forces and scores of American airstrikes targeted what was 'probably the largest' al-Qaeda training camp found in the 14-year Afghan war, the senior U.S. commander in Afghanistan said on Friday."

The Commentariat -- October 30, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. -- Harry Truman

-- 2016 Republican Presidential Candidate

Abby Phillip & Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "With GOP anger over CNBC's handling of Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate boiling over, the Republican National Committee announced Friday that it was suspending its partnership with NBC News for an upcoming debate in February.In a letter to NBC News Chairman Andrew Lack, RNC Chairman Reince Priebus said that their relationship for the debate, scheduled for Feb. 26 at the University of Houston, was on hold 'pending further discussion.'" Thanks to Akhilleus for the link. ...

... Ashley Parker & Emily Steel of the New York Times: "The letter [from Priebus] seemed to be an attempt at damage control by the R.N.C., which many of the candidates felt had bungled its handling of the Republican debate process, after taking a more active role and 'sanctioning' debates' this year."

Helene Cooper & Peter Baker of the New York Times: "President Obama will deploy a small number of American Special Operations forces to Kurdish-controlled territory in northern Syria, a United States official said. The White House is expected to make the announcement on Friday...."

Ryan Felton of the Guardian: "St Louis police have arrested an individual in connection with a spate of arson cases at predominantly black churches. The suspect, a 35-year-old black male, was taken into custody on Thursday, said Schron Jackson, spokesperson for the St Louis police department."

Wesley Lowery of the Washington Post: "On Thursday night, just four days before the former Austin police officer was set to stand trial, a federal judge in Texas dismissed a manslaughter charge against Charles Kleinert in the 2013 shooting death of Larry Jackson Jr., an unarmed black man. The ruling by U.S. District Judge Lee Yeakel cites a little known 1889 case that determined federal agents can be granted immunity from state criminal charges and undoes one of a handful of indictments handed down to police officers out of the thousands of fatal police shootings that have occurred in recent years." Kleinert "was a member of an FBI task force.... Travis County District Attorney Rosemary Lehmberg said Thursday night that she has yet to determine if she will appeal the ruling."

*****

In the Middle of the Night. David Herszenhorn of the New York Times: "The Senate approved a crucial bipartisan budget agreement early on Friday that would avert a government default and stands to end nearly five years of pitched battles between congressional Republicans and the Obama administration over fiscal policy. The measure, which was approved 64 to 35, now goes to the White House, where President Obama is ready to sign it.... While Congress must still adopt spending bills for the next two years, the bill would substantially reduce the risk of a government shutdown by setting spending targets for two years and allowing Congress to return to its regular appropriations process." ...

... CW: Huh, Herszenhorn doesn't mention Rand Paul's promised filibuster. ... Oh, here's why:

... Ali Weinberg & Jessica Hopper of ABC News: "Sen. Rand Paul's so-called 'filibuster' against the budget deal, a move his campaign hyped repeatedly and which the Kentucky senator used as a rallying cry at [Wednesday] night's debate, wasn't a filibuster at all. In fact, it wasn't even a long speech. The presidential hopeful took to the Senate floor at 2:46 p.m. and ended his remarks less than twenty minutes later.... 'I will stand firm. I will spend every ounce of energy to stop [the deal],' he said [at the debate]. 'I will begin tomorrow to filibuster it....." And his campaign sought to raise money off the filibuster." See also Paul Krugman's column on GOP grifters. ...

     ... Cheap Trick. "In one fundraising email with the subject line 'I'm going to filibuster,' Paul asked supporters to donate $20.16." CW: So in clocking less than 20 minutes, Paul gave the suckers his supporters less than a dollar a minute for their contributions.

Mike Dorning of Bloomberg: "The White House plans to aggressively deploy President Barack Obama to rally Democrats to the polls for the 2016 election, particularly minority and young voters who are his strongest supporters."

Linda Greenhouse: "... the Roberts Court, having worked assiduously over the last 10 years to elevate the First Amendment's Free Exercise Clause at the expense of its First Amendment twin, the Establishment Clause, is now approaching a moment of truth.

Alexander Burns of the New York Times: New York "Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo intends to take a lead role in a broad campaign pressing for a crackdown on the improper dealing of firearms.... Mr. Cuomo, a Democrat, has pledged to throw his weight behind the Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence ... in an as-yet-unannounced effort demanding that the Justice Department more closely scrutinize so-called bad apple gun merchants, according to people familiar with the campaign."

Reuters: "A rapid warming of the Gulf of Maine off the eastern United States has made the water too warm for cod, pushing stocks towards collapse despite deep reductions in the number of fish caught, a US study has shown. The Gulf of Maine had warmed faster than 99% of the rest of the world's oceans in the past decade, influenced by shifts in the Atlantic Gulf Stream, changes in the Pacific Ocean and a wider trend of climate change, it said."

Petula Dvorak of the Washington Post on that dancing D.C. cop. (See also yesterday's Commentariat.) CW: Here's what struck me: Aaliyah Taylor, the cop's "dance partner," said that "all seven of her siblings have been cuffed or arrested by police for nonviolent crimes, like breaking curfew.... And her brother and six sisters all told her that the police were rough on them."

David Sanger, et al., of the New York Times: Secretary of State John Kerry's biggest challenge during talks in Vienna to end the Syrian civil war "may well be reconciling the Saudis and the Iranians, longtime rivals who have turned Syria into the main battlefield in a broadening proxy war for dominance in the Middle East."

Carol Morello of the Washington Post: "Iran has arrested another American holding dual citizenship, bringing to four the number of Iranian Americans imprisoned in Tehran after they came under suspicion by hard-line security forces. Siamak Namazi, a businessman based in Dubai who is in his early 40s, was arrested earlier this month when he was visiting a friend in Tehran...."

Charlie Savage & Steven Erlanger of the New York Times: "Shaker Aamer, whose detention at the Guantánamo Bay prison in Cuba attracted the attention of human rights lawyers, political leaders and rock stars, was freed on Friday after more than 13 years in captivity, British officials announced. Mr. Aamer, a Saudi citizen and British resident, was en route to London.... His transfer came one day after the military repatriated a Mauritanian man, Ahmed Ould Abdel Aziz." According to the headline, Aamer was the last Guantanamo prisoner from Great Britain.

Presidential Race

... Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "Republican presidential front-runner Ben Carson told reporters Thursday that he was reaching out to every rival campaign to lobby for changes to future debate formats (linked fixed).'Debates are supposed to be established to help the people get to know the candidate,' Carson said at a news conference before a speech at Colorado Christian University. 'What it's turned into is "gotcha!" That's silly. That's not helpful to anybody.'" ...

... CW: Carson suggested appropriate questions should be along the lines of "How much do you love America?" "What is your favorite color?" and "Is Barack Obama more like Hitler, Stalin or Mao?" And of course, "What's your favorite Bible verse?"

** Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "Thanks in part to CNBC's clumsy handling of the event and in part to the long-term and increasing rejection of traditional media on the right, presidential candidates were able to skate past legitimate critiques by claiming bias -- with the audience enthusiastically cheering them on." ...

** Catherine Rampell of the Washington Post: "The Republican presidential candidates are right. The media does suck. But not for the reasons the candidates complained about.... We in the media suck because we have rewarded their rampant dishonesty and buffoonery with nonstop news coverage. Which, of course, has encouraged more dishonesty and buffoonery." Read the whole column. ...

... Katie Zezima of the Washington Post: "Wednesday's Republican presidential debate became as much about the journalists who moderated it as it was about the candidates who answered -- or batted away -- their questions." Zezima has a good outline of Ben Carson's whopper in which he claimed he had no involvement with a shady company called Mannatech that sells nutritional supplements & "a good way for people to 'improve their financial situation.'" ...

Erik Wemple of the Washington Post notes that Republicans didn't rise up en masse against Fox "News" when in the August 6 GOP debate its hosts asked questions similar to those the CNBC hosts asked. ...

... CW: Donald Trump of course did have his famous fits about Megyn Kelly's questions, but if you recall, other Republicans, including the presidential candidates, rose up as one to defend Kelly against Trump.

CW: What I wrote yesterday, in flow-chart form. Via Betty Cracker of Balloon Juice:

"The Moon Is Square." Kevin Drum: "I'm used to politicians fudging and tap dancing during debates. All part of the game. But the number of flat-out lies in [Wednesday]'s debate was pretty stunning. Here are the four that stood out." See also Paul Krugman's column, linked below. ...

... ** "The GOP's Grotesque Festival of Lies." Brian Beutler: Conservatives have "figured out that denying documented reality and attacking the messenger can completely snow over the truth. That creates a big problem for journalists, who should view the attacks against Harwood and the others as an affront to the profession. It creates a bigger problem as the primary gives way to the general election.... If [Hillary] Clinton becomes the Democratic nominee, and nobody figures out how to counter [these] debate tactics, the problem will grow."

Josh Barro, a conservative economics reporter for the New York Times, analyzes the GOP candidates' tax plans. Bottom line: pie-in-the-sky assumptions, big savings for the rich, huge deficits. Excellent! ...

     ... CW: Ted Cruz boasted Wednesday night that his tax plan has "the lowest personal rate any candidate up here has." Well, yeah, but what Tricky Teddy forgot to tell you was that on top of the 10 percent personal income tax, he would impose a 16 percent value-added tax (VAT). Barro: "Added up across the whole economy, Mr. Cruz's VAT would be equivalent to a very broadly based sales tax, applying even to services like health care that are ordinarily exempt from sales taxes. Like a sales tax, this tax would be built into prices and paid by consumers -- and for many lower-income households, it would be a far greater burden than the income tax." Rand Paul has a similar plan to add a hefty VAT tax (tho not as hefty as Ted's). what a slimy bunch of bastards. All. of. them. ...

... Dylan Matthews of Vox: Ted Cruz's tax "proposal, outlined in a Wall Street Journal op-ed..., is legitimately shocking -- it will cost trillions upon trillions of dollars and lead to an enormous tax cut for the richest Americans." ...

... Jon Cassidy of the New Yorker on GOP economic policy: "In a Republican primary, making tough policy choices and trying to be substantive doesn't necessarily pay off. Small wonder that the debates tend to be food fights, instead." ...

... "Republican Economics in 3 Words: Push Wealth Upwards." Charles Pierce: "The Republican party remains committed, root and branch, to plutocratic economics, to the fiction of the trickle-down, to the restorative powers of supply-side snake oil. On this, there is no room for debate. Which is why, among other things, it was hilarious to watch Tailgunner Ted Cruz and the rest of them try to turn CNBC (and the likes of Rick Santelli) into Pravda On Wall Street.... Right now, on my television set, the House of Representatives is wildly applauding the elevation to the Speakership of Paul Ryan, the zombie-eyed granny-starver from the state of Wisconsin, first runner-up in our most recent vice-presidential pageant, and the longtime respectable face for the economic policies of which Marco Rubio is the logical end, and as thoroughgoing a knave as ever has held that gavel. Things are looking up." See also David Brooks's column, linked below!

** ... The Grifters. Paul Krugman: "... Mr. Carson lied. He has indeed been deeply involved with Mannatech.... PolitiFact quickly rated his claim false, without qualification. But the Republican base doesn't want to hear about it, and the candidate apparently believes, probably correctly, that he can simply brazen it out. These days, in his party, being an obvious grifter isn't a liability, and may even be an asset.... Insider politicians like Marco Rubio are simply engaged in a different, classier kind of scam -- and they are empowered in part by the way the grifters have defined respectability down.... As the historian Rick Perlstein documents, a 'strategic alliance of snake-oil vendors and conservative true believers' goes back half a century." Krugman explains of why GOP candidates get away with these lies. ...

... CW: I am happy to see someone at the New York Times using the word "lied." I'm sick of euphemistic journalism that bowdlerizes & sanitizes lies as "misstatements" or "misspeaking." One can "misspeak" -- ask Jeb! -- but denying facts known to you is lying. ...

... And now for a word from the New York Times' Designated Grifter David Brooks: "... Republicans could wind up with two new leaders going into this election, Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan. That's a pretty excellent outcome.... Of all the candidates, Rubio has done the most to harvest the work of Reform Conservatism, which has been sweeping through the think tank world. In a year in which many candidates are all marketing, Rubio is a balance of marketing and product. If Ryan and Rubio do emerge as the party's two leaders, it will be the wonkiest leadership team in our lifetime. That's a good thing." ...

     ... CW: In describing Marco's tax policy in glowing terms, for some reason Brooks forgets to mention (a) it will be a boon for the super-rich, shift the tax burden to the middle class & balloon the deficit, and (b) lied about it on national teevee. But, hey, the Times allows its Designated Grifter only 800 words. Maybe he'll get to that next week. ..

    ... ** Update: Contributor Islander points to "a remarkable blog entry" by Paul Krugman, countering Brooks' assertion that "... it's probably not sensible to get too worked up about the details of any candidate's plans. They are all wildly unaffordable. What matters is how a candidate signals priorities." Remarkable, indeed. The content of Krugman's post, titled "Policy and Character," is essential reading. Aside from that, Krugman & Brooks have a longstanding feud on account of Brooks' wilful ignorance of economics. But because they must adhere to some degree to the Gray Lady's Book of Etiquette, the two seldom name each other when they take their potshots. Today, it seems, Krugman has decided that Brooks went a bridge too far in his joyful endorsement of Marco's "wildly unaffordable" plan.

American Dreamboat. Frank Rich: Marco Rubio "is nothing if not slick and glib. His response to every tough question is always the same. He invokes his father, a bartender, and his mother, a hotel maid. He sanctifies himself as the living proof of the power of the American dream.... As the debate once again demonstrated, [Ben Carson] babbles platitudes, generalities, and utter nonsense; lies about his own history (including as a peddler of a suspect patent medicine); and seems to regard his own ascent in politics as akin to the Second Coming.... Bush is finished.... History will look back at him, if it looks at all, as a world-class fool and the last exhausted gasp of a GOP that no longer exists." ...

... Steve Benen: "There's no denying that when Rubio sticks to his memorized talking points, he knows how to deliver them well. I'm not sure what this has to do with being an effective president, but it's a skill that seems to work on television. But when the same candidate in the same debate shows that he can't think quickly on his feet, and his understanding of the issues can charitably be described as superficial, perhaps that matters, too?" ...

... Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker: "Rubio is about to go through a period of much more intensive media scrutiny [of his personal finances]. Complaining about media bias won't be enough to get him through it." See also David Catanase's story linked below; Jeb! is going to help with oppo research.

... Seung Min Kim, et al., of Politico: "Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid tore into Sen. Marco Rubio on Thursday, calling on the Florida Republican and 2016 presidential contender to resign his Senate seat as he racks up no-shows on his voting record while campaigning for the White House. 'Why shouldn't he [resign]? He hates the Senate,' Reid said in an interview with Politico on Thursday. 'Why should the taxpayers of this country and people of Florida put up with having only one senator? Doesn't seem fair to me.'"

Tim Egan: "... the fish stinks from the head down.... [Jeb] Bush owns this debacle, the third in a row. The debate broke him. And the only question remaining is whether he's deliberately managing a slow exit consisting of cringe-worthy moments, or if there's something deep in his subconscious driving him to quit." And other debate malfeasance. ...

... Janet Kasperkevic of the Guardian: "Not only did ... [Jeb Bush] have a disappointing showing in Wednesday's Republican debate, he has also managed to upset people who cannot even vote for him -- the French. While taking a jab at Florida senator Marco Rubio for missing Senate votes due to being on the campaign trail, Bush made a reference to the 'French work week'. 'You should be showing up to work. I mean, literally, the Senate, what is it, like a French work week? You get like three days where you have to show up?'... Gérard Araud, French ambassador to the US, pushed back on Twitter. 'The French work an average of 39.6 hours a week compared to 39.2 for the Germans,' he said."... A French newspaper the Local ran a piece with the headline, 'White House race stoops to French bashing, again'." ...

The Bush Family Problem. David Frum, one of Dubya's speechwriters, in the Atlantic: Jeb Bush "arrived at both the second and third debates with plans of attack against his chief rivals of the moment: Donald Trump last time, Marco Rubio this time. Both times, he failed to anticipate and prepare for the most obvious opponent reaction. What followed were humiliating climb-downs by Bush." ...

     ... CW: Frum's column is worth a read. He knows Jeb!, & his analysis of Jeb!'s shortcomings is right on. Of course Frum's critique is of debate performance, not of Jeb!'s ability to handle the presidency. Ay, there's the rub. The Bush boys never think past their own actions. It does not occur to them that their opponents may actually counter their attacks rather than thanking the boys for correcting them. Ergo, the debacle of the Iraq War & the "Bush Doctrine." ...

... David Catanese of US News: After meeting with top donors in Houston Monday, Jeb "Bush's team distributed a 45-page PowerPoint presentation to select reporters, summarizing an optimistic view of the race.... But in that leak to select media, the campaign purposely left out more than half of what was furnished behind closed doors. The full presentation, obtained exclusively by U.S. News, spans 112 pages and includes a trove of new details.... While the slides released to the media outlined Bush's overarching argument against Florida Sen. Marco Rubio -- that he's the GOP's Barack Obama -- the complete offering contains more biting, detailed slights, pointedly questioning the character and ethics of Bush's home state rival.... [One page is] titled 'Marco Is A Risky Bet,' and it bullet-points Rubio's 'misuse of state party credit cards, taxpayer funds and ties to scandal-tarred former Congressman David Rivera.'"

It is important to remember that amateurs built the Ark and it was the professionals that built the Titanic. -- Ben Carson, in a tweet, on why he is qualified to be president

Leaving aside the rip-tooting craziness of citing a popular Biblical myth as evidence of one's own competency, I have news for Dr. Bible Thumper. The architect of the ark in the Noah story was no amateur:

So make yourself an ark of cypress wood; make rooms in it and coat it with pitch inside and out. This is how you are to build it: The ark is to be three hundred cubits long, fifty cubits wide and thirty cubits high. Make a roof for it, leaving below the roof an opening one cubit high all around. Put a door in the side of the ark and make lower, middle and upper decks. -- God, to Noah (Genesis 6:14-16)

Ole Doc, who probably believes this Bible story was a real historical event, is either calling the Almighty an amateur (which sounds heretical to me), or -- more likely -- he is suggesting that he, Ben Carson, would make a good president because God will be his "architect." Either way, gob-smacking loony & bone-chilling scary.

Oh, & Ole Doc -- excellent historian that we know him to be -- gets the Titanic story mostly wrong, too. It is true that the ship had too few lifeboats (tho the number exceeded the legal requirement, suggesting regulatory lapse), & there is new speculation that its rivets may have been too weak. But the immediate causes of the ship's hitting an iceberg were the result of (a) unique natural phenomena (acts of, um, God!) & (b) multiple errors the captain & crew made, not mistakes in the design & build. -- Constant Weader

... digby uploads one of Ole Doc's "not-involved" videotaped endorsements of Mannatechs' snake oil. "... endorsement doesn't necessarily mean he was paid. In fact if he wasn't it raises the more important question as to whether he believes this snake oil cures diseases like Alzheimers. It sure sounds like he does.... Carson and his fellows are quick to call Obama's and Clinton's judgment into question. This seems like a good reason to call Carson's into question. Does he think this snake oil cures diseases? Or does he just not realize that when a renowned doctor endorses such a product as he does in that video that it might lead people to think so?" ...

... CW: In fact, Carson endorsed Mannatech's products during the debate. "Do I take the product? Yes. I think it's a good product." A retailer can't do much better than having a popular presidential candidate (who, because of his professional background, should also be an expert on the qualities of the product) endorse that product during a presidential debate that garnered 14 million viewers.

Beyond the Beltway

Jess Bidgood of the New York Times: "Owen Labrie, who was found guilty of having sex with an underage girl while the two were students at the elite St. Paul's School [in Concord, N.H.], was sentenced Thursday to a year in jail and five years of probation. Mr. Labrie, 20, stood straight as the sentence was read. 'You're going to do a year in the House of Corrections and probation,' the judge, Larry M. Smukler, told him.... Labrie must also register as a sex offender."

News Lede

New York Times: "A judge in Poland on Friday turned down a request by the United States for the extradition of the filmmaker Roman Polanski, who is wanted over a 1977 conviction for having sex with a 13-year-old girl. At a hearing in Krakow, Judge Dariusz Mazur ruled that turning over Mr. Polanski would be an 'obviously unlawful' deprivation of liberty, and he added that California was unlikely to be ready to humanely incarcerate the 82-year-old filmmaker, given his age."