The Commentariat -- October 26, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

David Herszenhorn of the New York Times: "Congressional leaders and the Obama administration are close to a crucial budget deal that would modestly increase domestic spending over the next two years and raise the federal borrowing limit. The accord would avert a potentially cataclysmic default on the government's debt and dispense with perhaps the most divisive issue in Washington just days before Speaker John A. Boehner is expected to turn over his gavel to Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin. While congressional aides cautioned that the deal was far from certain, and the Treasury Department declined to comment, officials briefed on the negotiations said the emerging accord would call for cuts in spending on Medicare and Social Security disability benefits." CW: That last of which is mighty stupid. ...

... The Washington Post story, by Kelsey Snell, is here.

** Ken Dilanian of the Washington Post: "The Army Green Berets who requested the Oct. 3 airstrike on the Doctors without Borders trauma center in Afghanistan were aware it was a functioning hospital but believed it was under Taliban control, The Associated Press has learned. The information adds to the evidence the site was familiar to the U.S. and raises questions about whether the attack violated international law.... The attack left a mounting death toll, now up to 30 people."

Ole Miss Joins USA 150 Years after Civil War. Susan Svrluga of the Washington Post: "The Mississippi flag was taken down at the state's public university Monday morning, after student leaders, faculty and staff called for its removal because of its prominent Confederate emblem. It was a dramatic change for a university long proud of its southern traditions and ties to the Confederacy...."

Unpossible! On our side, you've got the No. 2 guy [who] tried to kill someone at 14, and the No. 1 is high energy and crazy as hell. How am I losing to these people? -- Sen. Lindsey Graham, GOP presidential candidate

*****

Robert Pear of the New York Times: "Tens of thousands of people with modest incomes are at risk of losing health insurance subsidies in January because they did not file income tax returns, federal officials and consumer advocates say. Under federal rules, anyone who receives an insurance subsidy must file a tax return to verify that the person was eligible and received the proper amount of financial assistance based on household income.... Many of the people potentially affected have incomes so low that they would not otherwise have to file tax returns. But if they received insurance subsidies in 2014, they were required to file this year."

A Disaster Waiting to Happen. Ashley Halsey & Michael Laris of the Washington Post: "Railroad industry lobbyists have flooded key members of Congress with cash in a so-far successful effort to get them to postpone the installation & implementation of Positive Train Control (PTC), an automatic braking system, even though the National Transportation Safety Board "has investigated 145 rail accidents since 1969 that PTC could have prevented, with a death toll of 288 and 6,574 people injured.... [Meanwhile,] the number of rail tank cars carrying flammable material in the United States has grown from 9,500 seven years ago to 493,126 last year, thanks to the boom in domestic oil produced in the Bakken oil fields.... A federal official familiar with [the] 2008 negotiations [establishing the deadline, said,] 'The railroads were in the room, and [Association of American Railroads] and those guys were the ones who said 2015 was doable. They did not embrace the deadline, but they said it was a fair bill.'..."

Sellouts! Mike DeBonis of the Washington Post: GOP base says Freedom Caucus members who support Paul Ryan for speaker are no longer crazy enough. ...

... BUT. Gery Legum of Salon: Ryan is already caving to the Crazy Caucus. ...

We know that the Ryan budget is very hostile toward federal employees. It would dramatically cut their effective pay. The Ryan budgets have always looked to federal employees as a piggy bank to be used to reduce the deficit rather than as an important resource to provide services to the American people. -- Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-Md.), whose district includes 1,000s of federal workers

Bill Daley, President Obama's former chief-of-staff, says in a Washington Post op-ed that GOP dysfunction began with Sarah Palin: "Palin's blatant lack of competence and preparedness needs no belaboring.... Now the 'settle for flash' aura of Palin's candidacy looks like a warning that the party was prizing glib, red-meat rhetoric over reasoned solutions.... Once McCain put Palin on the ticket, Republican 'grown-ups,' who presumably knew better, had to bite their tongues. But after the election..., they either remained quiet or abetted the dumbing-down of the party. They stood by as Donald Trump and others noisily pushed claims that Obama was born in Kenya. And they gladly rode the tea party tiger to sweeping victories in 2010 and 2014."

"Free Mitt Romney!: Paul Krugman: "... a few days ago Mr. Romney couldn't help himself: he boasted to the Boston Globe that 'Without Romneycare, we wouldn't have had Obamacare' and that as a result 'a lot of people wouldn't have health insurance.'... Mr. Romney quickly tried to walk his comments back, claiming that Obamacare is very different from Romneycare, which it isn't, and that it has failed. But you know, it hasn't.... From the point of view of the Republican base, covering the uninsured, or helping the unlucky in general, isn't a feature, it's a bug...: the base is actually willing to lose money in order to perpetuate suffering."

New York Times Editors: "Clearly, concealed carry does not transform ordinary citizens into superheroes. Rather, it compounds the risks to innocent lives, particularly as state legislatures, bowing to the gun lobby, invite more citizens to venture out naïvely with firearms in more and more public places, including restaurants, churches and schools. College campuses are the latest goal for the gun lobby -- a perverse marketing campaign after the gun massacre that took 10 lives this month at a community college in Oregon."

Jack Ewing of the New York Times: "A widening internal investigation at Volkswagen is focusing not only on who was responsible for installing illegal software designed to fool emissions testers, but also on which managers may have learned of the deception and failed to take appropriate action, a person briefed on the inquiry said. The failure of people inside the carmaker to sound warnings about illegal engine software has emerged as a crucial element of the scandal, in which 11 million cars were programmed to produce far fewer emissions during laboratory testing than they did under normal driving conditions."

Marisa Bellack of the Washington Post: "... there was a 19th-century echo in the American Cancer Society's announcement this past week of revised guidelines for breast cancer screening. Whereas anxiety was once a reason for aggressive medical intervention, it is now invoked to avoid intervention -- an argument that is both patronizing and unscientific. There may be good reasons for women in their early 40s to forgo regular mammograms, but this isn't one of them.... There doesn't seem to be as much concern about a hysterical response to a prostate cancer screening."

Rebecca Ruiz of the New York Times: "This fall, legal claims of wage theft in professional cheerleading have spread from the N.F.L. to the N.B.A., and basketball teams' treatment of female performers is under intense scrutiny. Lauren Herington, a former dancer for the Milwaukee Bucks, sued the team in federal court in Wisconsin last month, charging that she had been paid well under the minimum wage during the 2013-14 season."

Mary Chapman of the New York Times: "Minutes before their contract was set to expire, the United Automobile Workers union and General Motors announced a tentative agreement Sunday night on a new national agreement covering about 52,000 employees."

AP: "A video of the joint raid of a prison in Iraq by US and Kurdish forces in which 70 hostages held by Islamic State (Isis) were rescued has been released. Helmet-camera footage, released on Sunday, shows the raid on Thursday of the prison, which was controlled by Isis militants in Hawija, 9 miles (15km) west of the city of Kirkuk.... US army Master Sgt Joshua Wheeler, 39, of Roland, Oklahoma, was killed during the operation, officials said on Friday. He is the first American to die in combat as part of the US Operation Inherent Resolve." Includes video.

Presidential Race

Digby, in Salon, on politics as teevee drama. "Bill and Hillary Clinton ... are the stars of the nation's longest running TV soap opera.... Hillary Clinton is the biggest political star of all. Along with her husband, she has been in the harsh spotlight of national politics for 25 years, and has gone through more ups and downs, heartache and triumph than your average Telenovela heroine."

Eric Bradner of CNN: "Bernie Sanders says his criticism of Hillary Clinton's 'shouting' on gun control has nothing to do with her gender.... Sanders criticized the "shouting" from both sides on gun issues in the first Democratic presidential debate. Clinton said Saturday in Iowa that Sanders' remarks came with a gender-related undercurrent. She said: 'I'm not shouting. It's just that when women talk, some people think we're shouting.' Sanders on Sunday laughed at her suggestion that his remarks were about gender." ...

... Jonathan Martin & Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Nearly eight years after [Hillary] Clinton was humbled by a third-place finish in Iowa, she has gone to great lengths to demonstrate her commitment to winning the state that first propelled Barack Obama to the presidency. But in a campaign that seems to be testing every long-held assumption about the electorate, Mrs. Clinton is facing a stiff challenge from Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont that is again showcasing her difficulties with liberal activists in a state where she and her husband do not have deep ties."

Charles Pierce: "Iowa Democrats had themselves a rollicking, yabba-dabba-doo time at the annual Slave-Raper, Indian-Slaughterer fundraising rodeo on Saturday in Des Moines.... All three of them came into Hy-Vee Hall knowing that the putative Democratic frontrunner had reasserted herself in a very serious way. Their respective reactions to this change in circumstances created a change in tone, an awareness that, to become president, you not only have to sell your vision to the country, but you also have to beat somebody.... Without mentioning her name, Sanders relentlessly portrayed Clinton's base-pleasuring moves in this campaign as the same kind of cold political calculations that, in the past, she had made in supporting the Iraq War and the Defense of Marriage Act."

Gardiner Harris of the New York Times: "Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. delayed making a decision about a potential presidential campaign for months, in part because of the tears of his 11-year-old granddaughter. That time for family healing after the death of her father, the vice president's son Beau, in May ultimately meant he would not be able to win, Mr. Biden said ... in an interview televised on Sunday night on CBS's '60 Minutes.'" ...

... You can watch the interview, by Nora O'Donnell, of Vice President & Dr. Biden here.

It has not been easy for me. I started off in Brooklyn. My father gave me a small loan of a million dollars. I came into Manhattan, and I had to pay him back, and I had to pay him back with interest. But I came into Manhattan and I started buying properties, and I did great. -- Donald Trump, relating his rags-to-riches story

You know, many successful people start out with nothing. The poor, hapless Donald began his career a millon dollars in debt! Plus interest! -- Constant Weader

A Kindlier, Gentler Trump? Yeah, Right. Dan Roberts of the Guardian: "'When I'm president I'm going to unify the country,' the property billionaire told CNN on Sunday, in a surprise call for more civility in politics. 'A lot of people think I'm a tough guy, but actually I am a nice guy,' he added. 'Barack Obama has divided this country unbelievably and it's all hatred. I think it hurts both parties, it hurts the country.'" Of Hillary Clinton's appearance before the Benghaazi! committee, Trump said, "It was very partisan. The level of hatred between Republicans and Democrats was unbelievable. I have never seen anything like it." CW: If it's "all hatred," Mr. Birther, the hatred is coming from you & your side.

The press has a lower approval rating than Congress. They're scum. -- Donald Trump, in New Hampshire this morning

Like Jeb!, Trump Has Other "Cool Things" He Could Be Doing. This isn't so easy. I can be at other places at 7 in the morning, not on live television all over the world. -- Donald Trump, same rally

Martin Pengelly of the Guardian: "... Marco Rubio has defended his common and much-criticised absences from Senate business, saying: 'Voting is not the only part of the Senate job.' Speaking to CNN in an interview broadcast on Sunday, the Florida senator also deflected the suggestion that his own statement this week, that federal employees who did not perform in their roles should be fired, could be turned back on him. Rubio has the worst voting attendance record in the Senate this year." ...

... David Fahrenthold of the Washington Post: Action figure Marco Rubio can't stand the glacial pace of his day job, so he has most quit doing the job, & he won't be doing it in the future.

Still Crazy ... AND Cruel & Sexist. Jonathan Martin: "... Ben Carson said Sunday he believed that abortion should be outlawed even in cases of rape and incest, comparing the procedure with slavery. 'I would not be in favor of killing a baby because the baby came about in that way,' Mr. Carson said on NBC's 'Meet the Press,' citing 'the many stories of people who have led very useful lives who were the result of rape or incest.'" ...

... AND, since he hasn't figured out a way to compare abortion to Hitler, he compares women who seek abortions to slaveholders. ...

... But Now, Back to Hitler. Kyle Balluck of the Hill: "... Ben Carson is defending comments in which he said an armed Jewish population could have stopped the Nazis.... Carson also said there should be no compromises on the Second Amendment." He got straight on Noah Webster v. Daniel Webster this time, however. ...

... Fire Chuck Todd! CW: Todd, being the fake journalist that he is, lets Carson get away with repeating his fake history. After Dr. Ben repeats his little history-of-the-Holocaust malarkey, Chuck moves right along to the next, unrelated question, never citing historians who say Carson is wrong on every aspect of the story. If you want to know why a crazy man has a shot at becoming POTUS, the answer is Chuck & Co. Evidently Chucky thinks "Meet the Press" means "meet and greet," a mixer sort of happening where folks can show up to chat & make friends with the show's staff. ...

... Still Baffling. Chris Wallace can't understand Dr. Ben's prescription for Medicare. Apparently, neither can Dr. Ben. "When Wallace pressed him on his past indication he would eliminate Medicare, Carson said he’s perfectly capable of changing his mind." Includes video. You figure it out. I think he's saying you're on your own, buddy.

Bushed, Bothered & Bewildered. Eli Stokols of Politico: A "closed-door summit [in Houston] for Jeb Bush's richest donors was meant to be a pep rally, a reunion for loyalists eager to celebrate the family legacy with two former presidents. But as George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush draw supporters together under gray skies and unrelenting rains, the gathering has become a rescue operation for a candidate who looks unable to meet the expectations of the family brand. Many of these dedicated Bush supporters are no longer denying that the guest of honor is unable to connect with a GOP electorate that has become increasingly fractured and stridently ideological since -- and in reaction to -- his brother's presidency.... 'I look at this party now and I hardly recognize it,' one Florida-based donor said." ...

... "A Tale of Two Establishment Favorites." John Cassidy of the New Yorker contrasts the status of Jeb!'s campaign with that of Hillary's. ...

...Steve M. makes a telling point: "It's a quitters-never-win kind of family (though the persistence is usually accompanied by the employment of amoral attack dogs like Lee Atwater, Roger Ailes, and Karl Rove, an approach Jeb isn't taking yet)." In raw politics, the above-the-fray noblesse oblige 'tude works only if your staff operates more like Tricky Dick's dirty-tricks plumbers.

HaHaHaHaHa. Melissa Cronin of Gawker: "New Jersey Governor Chris Christie ... nearly missed his 9:55 Amtrak train from DC to New York. Then, he didn't get the seat he wanted on the train. Then, to make things even worse, he got kicked out of the quiet car!" Fellow passenger Alexander Mann told Gawker, "He got on last minute yelling at his two secret service agents I think because of a seat mixup, sat down and immediately started making phone calls on the quiet car. After about 10 minutes the conductor asked him to stop or go to another car. He got up and walked out again yelling at his secret service.' Mann also said that Christie was having an intense phone conversation, repeating the phrases, 'this is frickin' ridiculous' and 'seriously?! seriously?!'" CW: Wonder if the actual word Christie used was "frickin'." ...

... Maggie Haberman: "Aides to Mr. Christie said the episode was far less dramatic than what was portrayed in the Gawker account.... A spokeswoman, Samantha Smith, said that the governor was not yelling.... At least one other person backed up Ms. Smith's account." CW: Aw, shucks. I prefer to think he was yelling & carrying on. ...

... Guardian: "... Chris Christie said on Sunday the Black Lives Matter protest movement was creating an environment that could put police officers at risk. Speaking on CBS, he said: 'I don't believe that movement should be justified when they are calling for the murder of police officers.' He also accused President Obama of supporting the movement and encouraging 'lawlessness' while not backing up law enforcement." CW: Which is, of course, an absolute crock. If I were seated in the quiet car next to Gov. Crisco, I'd be yelling at him.

CW: How to tell when a presidential contender is finished: news outlets do a dump of their research on a candidate they haven't reported on in weeks. Here's Politico's entry:

Matt Katz: Chris "Christie was on the train returning from an appearance on CBS's Face The Nation, where he went further than most Republican presidential candidates by alleging that the Black Lives Matter movement calls for killing cops. But that extraordinary comment about a critical American civic issue was lost as Gawker's account of Christie screaming on his phone, drinking a McDonald's strawberry smoothie -- and just being so Christie -- lit up political Twitter.... In 2011...," etc. CW: Ben & Scary's new flavor of the month is Carson Candy Nutty Swirl. Christie Creme Triple Chunky Monkey has been retired. ...

... AND here's today's New York Times entry:

... Michael Barbaro: "Those who worked with [Carly Fiorina at Hewlett-Packard] described an exhilarating, blunt, self-punishing figure who stayed in the office until 1 a.m. (and expected aides to do the same) -- a boss who could be warm, even nurturing, but who could abruptly turn cold and unforgiving." CW: Sorry, Carly. The Frozen Caramel Fiorina has melted.

Senate Races

She's Ba-a-a-ack! Burgess Everett & Elena Schneider of Politico: "Republicans have had enough of Sharron Angle, the one-time Senate hopeful who crashed and burned against then-Majority Leader Harry Reid in 2010. And now the GOP in Nevada and Washington is trying to chase her out of another campaign that could again jeopardize the party's chances of capturing Reid's Senate seat. Angle's very public flirtation with a primary bid against Rep. Joe Heck, the party favorite to take on Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto, is reviving Democratic dreams and Republican nightmares from the 2010 election."

Timothy Cama of the Hill: "Sen. Kelly Ayotte (N.H.) came out in support late Sunday of the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) regulation that seeks a 32-percent cut in the power sector's carbon dioxide emissions. Ayotte, who faces a tough reeelection bid in a state that voted for President Obama in the last two presidential cycles, is the first congressional Republican to openly endorse the rule dubbed the Clean Power Plan.... New Hampshire Gov. Maggie Hassan is seeking the Democratic nomination to face Ayotte, and would be seen as a top-notch challenger. She's already attacked Ayotte on climate, signaling she intends to make it an issue in the race. Hassan on Friday called for the state's congressional delegation to support the climate plan. She accused Ayotte of siding 'with corporate special interests over New Hampshire's environment,' arguing the senator had fought to protect tax breaks for oil companies and voted to block the EPA from moving forward with regulations to reduce carbon emissions."

News Ledes

New York Times: "Argentine voters sent the country's presidential race into a runoff on Sunday, boosting hopes in the opposition after Mauricio Macri, the mayor of Buenos Aires, made a surprisingly strong showing against the candidate endorsed by President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, according to partial results released by the electoral authorities."

Washington Post: "A massive earthquake rocked northeastern Afghanistan on Monday with tremors felt across the region from Pakistan to Central Asia, leaving dozens dead amid collapsed buildings and panicked stampedes with officials bracing for possible further casualties."

The Commentariat -- October 25, 2015

Internal links removed.

Sharon LaFraniere & Andrew Lehren of the New York Times: "... an analysis by The New York Times of tens of thousands of traffic stops and years of arrest data in [Greensboro, N.C., a] racially mixed city of 280,000, uncovered wide racial differences in measure after measure of police conduct. Those same disparities were found across North Carolina, the state that collects the most detailed data on traffic stops. And at least some of them showed up in the six other states that collect comprehensive traffic-stop statistics." ...

... CW: This is the type of reporting, BTW, that according to FBI Director James Comey, would constitute "the additional scrutiny and criticism of police officers..., [which] may have led to an increase in violent crime in some cities as officers have become less aggressive.... Mr. Comey said that he had been told by many police leaders that officers who would normally stop to question suspicious people are opting to stay in their patrol cars for fear of having their encounters become worldwide video sensations. That hesitancy has led to missed opportunities to apprehend suspects, he said, and has decreased the police presence on the streets of the country's most violent cities." Most people would call this a purposeful work slowdown or just plain dereliction of duty. What Comey is suggesting here is that First Amendment rights to freedom of speech & of the press cause violence because the police don't want to get caught on tape roughing up citizens. Comey is suggesting that a police state is less violent, or safer, than one that respects human rights. ...

... Amy Brittain of the Washington Post: "There have been "800 fatal shootings by police so far this year.... But only a small number of the shootings -- roughly 5 percent -- occurred under the kind of circumstances that raise doubt and draw public outcry, according to an analysis by The Washington Post. The vast majority of individuals shot and killed by police officers were ... armed with guns and killed after attacking police officers or civilians or making other direct threats."

Katie Zezima of the New York Times: "Faced with mounting and bipartisan opposition to increased and often high-stakes testing in the nation's public schools, the Obama administration declared Saturday that the push had gone too far, acknowledged its own role in the proliferation of tests, and urged schools to step back and make exams less onerous and more purposeful. Specifically, the administration called for a cap on assessment so that no child would spend more than 2 percent of classroom instruction time taking tests. It called on Congress to 'reduce over-testing' as it reauthorizes the federal legislation governing the nation's public elementary and secondary schools."

Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "President Obama compared the 'gloomy' Republican Party to grumpy cat, the dour-faced feline Internet celebrity, on Friday. Pouting in his best imitation of the cat that spawned a thousand memes, Obama was met with raucous laughter from attendees at the Democratic National Committee's Women's Leadership Forum":

Rachel Bade of Politico: "Amid growing Democratic accusations of overreaching, especially on the matter of Hillary Clinton's emails, Republicans on the House Benghazi Committee are now reconsidering how aggressively to pursue the email scandal that's been dogging the Democratic front-runner." ...

... Maureen Dowd criticizes Hillary Clinton's management of the Libyan crisis, post-bombing. She describes Hillary as the prime mover behind the decision to go into Libyan & therefore the one who should have been most on top of the situation: "When you are the Valkyrie who engineers the intervention, you can't then say it is beneath you to pay attention to the ludicrously negligent security for your handpicked choice for ambassador in a lawless country full of assassinations and jihadist training camps." CW: I think both Dowd & Republicans give Hillary too much credit here -- as even Dowd acknowledges, both Samantha Power & Susan Rice were behind the U.S. invasion, too. Oh, & Britain, France & Canada. Dowd completely forgets about them. But she has a point. Hillary isn't a lot better than Dubya at planning an after-invasion. All Middle-Eastern countries are not alike, but there is only one democracy in the Middle East: Israel. (Kuwait is a partial democracy, & Tunisia is working at it.) You might think there's reasons for that.

Juan Cole: "The fruitless carnival barking that was the GOP Benghazi inquisition did the nation the disservice of taking focus off the things really wrong with US policies, and places there really was wrongdoing. So here are some suggestions for real investigations." CW: Sorry, Juan, a GOP-led Congress never does "real investigations."

** Jimmy Carter, in a New York Times op-ed, promotes a five-nation plan to end the Syrian conflict. Read it.

Carol Morello & Hugh Naylor of the Washington Post: "Israel and Jordan have agreed to take steps aimed at quelling a wave of violence, starting with the installation of security cameras on the al-Aqsa mosque compound in Jerusalem, Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Saturday. Speaking after meetings with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordanian King Abdullah II, Kerry told reporters that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had agreed to King Abdullah's suggestion to install the 24-hour cameras at the holy site, which has been a focus of long-standing tensions between Israelis and Palestinians. 'This will provide comprehensive visibility and transparency,' Kerry said. 'It could be a game-changer in discouraging anybody from disturbing the sanctity of the holy sites.'"

Laurie Goodstein of the New York Times: "A three-week global assembly called by Pope Francis to re-examine church teaching on marriage and family in the modern era ended with bishops stopping short of allowing divorced and remarried Catholics to take communion, but encouraging their fuller participation in the church. The bishops drew a hard line against any acceptance of same-sex marriage, saying in their final document that it is not 'even remotely analogous' to marriage between a man and a woman. They added that gay people should be respected and not subjected to 'unjust discrimination' -- a reiteration of prior church teaching. The next steps are now in the hands of Pope Francis...."

Presidential Race

Jennifer Jacobs & Kevin Hardy of the Des Moines Register: "The three Democratic presidential candidates used adrenaline-filled pop music, emotional ballads and fiery speeches Saturday to try to catch the same tailwind that Barack Obama captured at the Jefferson Jackson dinner eight years ago. The 'JJ' dinner is Iowa Democrats' biggest party of the year, the signal that it's the final stretch before the first-in-the-nation caucuses on Feb. 1.... Front-runner Hillary Clinton arrived for the landmark event in a position of strength, but instead of coasting, unleashed the star power of her husband and pop superstar Katy Perry at a free concert that attracted thousands, then gave a confident, conversational speech to thousands of the party's most trusty activists. " With video. ...

... Links to the Register's complete coverage are here. Bernie Sanders' full speech is here. Hillary Clinton's full speech, taped in pieces, is here. And, if you've got 2 hours & 15 minutes to spare, C-SPAN is the way to go. ...

... Karen Tumulty & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "The two leading Democratic presidential contenders on Saturday night drew their clearest and sharpest distinctions yet. At a high-profile Democratic party dinner here, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) took a series of veiled, yet unmistakable jabs at former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton, saying that he would govern on principle. Where Sanders' address represented a new and more aggressive posture against the frontrunner, Clinton delivered one that was close to her standard stump speech, in which she made the argument that she would be a fighter who would find common ground and deliver results."...

... Annie Karni & Glenn Thrush of Politico: In Des Moines, Iowa, Bill Clinton warms up the crowd before performer Katy Perry's concert for Hillary Clinton. It was his first campaign appearance this year. ...

Rachel Maddow interviewed Hillary Clinton (aired Friday):

     ... The full transcript is here.

Kristina Wong of the Hill: "... Donald Trump on Saturday mocked fellow contenders Jeb Bush and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) at a rally in their home state of Florida. Trump teased Bush, a former Florida governor, for his recent decision to lay off campaign staff and cut salaries by 40 percent, and for his planned retreat with donors in Texas on Sunday. 'Bush has no money, he's meeting today with mommy and daddy, and they're working on his campaign,' Trump said at the rally in downtown Jacksonville, Fla. 'He's a guy wants to run our country and he can't even run his own campaign. Think of it,' he added." He also took a shot at Ben Carson's religion: "'I'm Presbyterian. That's down the middle of road,' he said. 'I mean, Seventh-day Adventist I don't know about.'" ...

... Major Garrett of CBS News: "Jeb Bush will attend a finance meeting this weekend in Houston convened by former President George H. W. Bush and attended by Bush's brother, former President George W. Bush, CBS News has learned. The session, designed to assess where Bush's candidacy stands in the face of large-scale staff cutbacks and underwhelming poll numbers, will also be attended by Bush's mother, Barbara Bush. The governor's campaign confirmed the meeting will be held Sunday and Monday." ...

This sounds way more like an intervention than a meeting. -- Daniel Drezner, on Twitter (See also other snarky commentary gathered by Annie Laurie of Balloon Juice at the linked page.) ...

... Ashley Killough of CNN: "A day after slashing salaries and cutting campaign staff..., [Jeb Bush] got an enthusiastic reception and delivered one of his strongest campaign performances to date. He tore into Donald Trump repeatedly and roused some in the crowd to their feet on answers about the military and foreign policy. Bush took part in a town hall series hosted by South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, drawing an audience of more than 500 people, about twice the number Bush normally attracts on the campaign trail." ...

Blah blah blah blah, that's my answer, blah blah blah. -- Jeb Bush, responding to reports that he has cut back his campaign

Nice to learn Jeb! is as articulate as ever. -- Constant Weader

... But, Wait. He's not stopping at "blah blah blah." Which is a mistake:

I've got a lot of really cool things I could do other than sit around being miserable, listening to people demonize me and me feeling compelled to demonize them. That is a joke. -- Jeb!, at that "strong campaign performance" in South Carolina

... Nancy LeTourneau of the Washington Monthly: "In some ways, that might be one of the most honest things Jeb has said this campaign. But letting folks know that he has other cool things he'd rather be doing than fighting for the nomination reeks of the kind of entitlement folks have come to expect from the Republican establishment." CW: I doubt Jeb! does actual "cool things." If he does, he does them awkwardly. "Jeb!" & "cool" are fairly antithetical.

Gubernatorial Race

Kevin Robillard of Politico: "A private investigator working for Sen. David Vitter's gubernatorial campaign [in Louisiana] was arrested Friday and charged with illegally recording a conversation involving a local sheriff, throwing a last-minute wrench into Saturday's all-party primary as other campaigns pounced on the news.... [Sheriff Newell] Normand, a Republican, is a backer of Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne in the governor's race.... 'So we know this about David Vitter. He's cheated, he's lied and now he's been caught spying,' Dardenne says direct to the camera in a web ad his campaign shot late last night."

Kevin Robillard : "Sen. David Vitter spent the summer on a glide path to becoming Louisiana's next governor. But even if Vitter earns a spot in the general election after Saturday's all-party primary, the Republican's ascension to the governor's mansion is in serious trouble. Vitter is still blessed with the most financial backing of any of the candidates and near-universal name recognition in the state. But over the past few months, his approval ratings have slipped underwater after Vitter's opponents -- including two fellow Republicans -- have spent significant time and money rehashing Vitter's 2007 prostitution scandal."

... UPDATE. Julia O'Donoghue of the New Orleans Times-Picayune: "Democratic state Rep. John Bel Edwards and Republican U.S. Sen. David Vitter will continue their heated battle for governor in a Nov. 21 runoff after finishing 1-2 in the primary election Saturday. The Edwards-Vitter pairing was no surprise. Edwards was all but guaranteed 30 percent of the vote as the only major Democrat running; he ended up with 40 percent. Vitter was the candidate of choice for conservative Republicans, but was a distant second with 23 percent. In the end, the two other Republicans in the race -- Public Service Commissioner Scott Angelle and Lt. Gov. Jay Dardenne -- couldn't piece together coalitions big enough to overcome Vitter's conservative appeal. Vitter may be popular with his 'super Republican' base, but polling shows he has 'high negatives' among other groups of voters."

News Ledes

New York Times: "Poland's chief right-wing opposition party, out of power for nearly a decade, came roaring back in parliamentary voting Sunday, apparently seizing control of the government with a platform that mixes calls for higher wages with appeals to traditional Catholic values."

New York Times: "Russian submarines and spy ships are aggressively operating near the vital undersea cables that carry almost all global Internet communications, raising concerns among some American military and intelligence officials that the Russians might be planning to attack those lines in times of conflict."

The Commentariat -- October 24, 2015

Internal links removed.

Michael Schmidt & Matt Apuzzo The F.B.I. director, James B. Comey, said on Friday that the additional scrutiny and criticism of police officers in the wake of highly publicized incidents of police brutality may have led to an increase in violent crime in some cities as officers have become less aggressive. With his remarks, Mr. Comey lent the prestige of the F.B.I. ... to a theory that is far from settled: that the increased attention on the police has made officers less aggressive and emboldened criminals. But Mr. Comey acknowledged that there is so far no data to back up his assertion and that it may be just one of many factors that are contributing to the rise in crime, like cheaper drugs and an increase in criminals who are being released from prison."

Richard Perez-Pena, et al., of the New York Times: In a successful mission to free ISIS hostages, "the only rescuer who died was Sergeant [Joshua] Wheeler, a veteran of 14 deployments to Iraq and Afghanistan, with a chest full of medals. His honors included four Bronze Stars with the letter V, awarded for valor in combat; and seven Bronze Stars, awarded for heroic or meritorious service in a combat zone. His body will be returned to the United States on Saturday."

Carol Morello of the Washington Post: "Secretary of State John F. Kerry met with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas and Jordan's King Abdullah Saturday as he continued his quest to defuse an escalating wave of violence between Israel and Palestinians."

Christian Davenport of the Washington Post: "Four years before Pentagon officials discovered potentially life-threatening problems with the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter's ejection seat, a top official warned in an urgent memo that the escape system should be more thoroughly vetted before pilots were trained on the plane.... [The] warnings were rejected by Pentagon brass, who pressed on with the controversial program, according to internal documents obtained by The Washington Post.... Lighter-weight pilots face a 'high' risk of danger, and the risk is deemed 'serious' for mid-weight pilots, according to an internal risk assessment of the problem.... Lighter-weight pilots, those weighing less than 136 pounds, are now prohibited from flying the aircraft, officials said, until the problem is fixed." ...

     ... CW: Now, I'm sure this has nothing to do with the Pentagon's careless decision, but who do you suppose most of those "lighter-weight" pilots are? Hint: think gender.

Amy Goldstein of the Washington Post: "When HealthCare.gov opens on Nov. 1 for a third open-enrollment season, the online insurance marketplace will be easier for consumers to use, Obama administration officials predict. But one main new tool to help consumers decide on health plans will not be finished."

White House: "In this week's address, the President laid out the importance of serving as good stewards of the environment and maintaining the planet for generations to come":

Sam Thielman of the Guardian: "A federal district court has dismissed a lawsuit brought by the American Civil Liberties Union against the National Security Agency.... The judge in the case, TS Ellis III, said the suit relied on 'the subjective fear of surveillance', because the NSA did not admit to having collected any of the information it was alleged to have collected by the ACLU." ...

     ... CW: Ellis is a Reagan appointee. Ellis has hit upon an excellent means to reduce -- to almost nothing -- our courts' burdensome caseloads. By his logic, few lawsuits could survive judicial scrutiny because few defendants stipulate that they're guilty. Want to reduce government spending? Throw out all the cases where the defendant does not admit to the underlying crime or tort. Wow!

Another GOP Conspiracy Theory Bites the Dust. Evan Perez of CNN: "The Justice Department notified members of Congress on Friday that it is closing its two-year investigation into whether the IRS improperly targeted the tea party and other conservative groups. There will be no charges against former IRS official Lois Lerner or anyone else at the agency, the Justice Department said in a letter. The probe found 'substantial evidence of mismanagement, poor judgment and institutional inertia leading to the belief by many tax-exempt applicants that the IRS targeted them based on their political viewpoints. But poor management is not a crime,' Assistant Attorney General Peter Kadzik said in the letter." ...

We found no evidence that any IRS official acted based on political, discriminatory, corrupt, or other inappropriate motives that would support a criminal prosecution. We also found no evidence that any official involved in the handling of tax-exempt applications or IRS leadership attempted to obstruct justice. -- Assistant AG Peter Kadzik

... David Nir of Daily Kos: "There's an amazing irony in this. Conservatives have railed against the IRS from the moment it was born, and Republicans have done everything in their power to starve it of funds and undermine its very existence. As a result, the agency was unable to process applications for non-profits in an efficient manner, which those very same conservative haters decided was proof that the IRS was out to get them." CW: Yeah but. It was the Obama DOJ that let Lerner off the hook. This is absolute proof of a vast left-wing conspiracy! ...

... They Just Can't Help Themselves. Right on cue, Paul Ryan says the result was "predictable" & the House Ways & Means Committee will continue to investigate Lois Lerner for "depriv[ing] conservative organizations of their Constitutional rights." ...

... Winger Erick Erickson: "The Department of Justice has, for decades, been a stronghold of progressives. Both [I guess he means the DOJ & the IRS] are hotbeds of partisan Democrats and devoted socialists who use the coercive power of the regulatory state to advance their agenda regardless of who is in the White House. One of the first tasks of a Republican president, should we elect one, is to carry out a ruthless purge of the Civil Service in general and the Department of Justice in particular." ...

     ... CW: Socialists! Investigate Bernie Sanders! How about a House Select Committee with Louis Gohmert as chair. We know Bernie can stand on his feet & talk for 8+ hours straight, but can he stay calm in the face of an 11-hour Gohmert grilling? Since Paul Ryan is so keen on House investigations, he should make the establishment of a Sanders select committee his first order of business as speaker. Hillary got her 11 hours in the spotlight. Give Bernie equal time. ...

... Kevin Williamson of National Review: "DOJ won't lift a pinky against a friend of the Obama administration. This is banana-republic stuff." CW: So the conspiracy theory just gets broader.

John Harwood in the New York Times: "In 2004, when fewer people paid attention to him, Donald J. Trump gave CNN a bottom-line assessment of political parties: 'It just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats.' If that sounds awkward now for Mr. Trump..., it may be even more awkward for his party next year, because its ability to claim superior economic know-how over Democrats has grown weaker ever since he made that assertion." ...

... Simon Rosenberg has the charts to prove it. Via Paul Waldman.

Eric Lipton & Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "... calls to oust Republican leaders in Congress ... came from conservative websites and bloggers who have helped stoke a grass-roots rebellion to make Congress more conservative, a fevered continuation of the six-year Tea Party movement. But these politically charged appeals to conservatives around the country were often accompanied by a solicitation for money, and the ultimate beneficiaries, records suggest, are the consultants who created the campaigns rather than the causes they are promoting." ...

... Paul Krugman: "As Rick Perlstein pointed out several years ago, the modern conservative movement is in large part a 'strategic alliance of snake-oil vendors and conservative true believers' with 'a cast of mind that makes it hard for either them or us to discern where the ideological con ended and the money con began.'... I don't think you can understand the depth of Obama- and Hillary-hatred without understanding just how much of it is generated by scammers out to make a buck off the racism and misogyny of some -- sad to say, fairly many -- older white men."

Mike Lillis of the Hill: "Democratic leaders warned Friday that they won't negotiate with Republicans on legislation to raise the debt limit. Behind House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the lawmakers said the economic ramifications of a debt default -- both domestic and global -- are too severe to endanger the bill with additional riders. Siding squarely with President Obama, the Democrats said they won't support anything but a "clean" bill to extend the federal government's borrowing authority." ...

... They Just Can't Help Themselves. Kelsey Snell of the Washington Post: "House Conservatives moved one step closer to forcing President Obama to veto a bill that would repeal large portions of the Affordable Care act and defund Planned Parenthood, but the legislation could still be defeated in the Senate. The House voted 240 to 189 to pass a budget reconciliation bill that seeks to gut Obamacare by repealing key sections of the law, including the individual and employer mandate and the so-called 'cadillac' tax.... House leaders were forced to scale back the legislation in recent weeks to ensure that it conformed with parliamentary rules governing reconciliation bills. That frustrated conservatives who said they were promised a bill that would fully repeal Obamacare." ...

Romney ObamaCare. Without Tom pushing it, I don't think we have had RomneyCare. Without RomneyCare, I don't think we would have ObamaCare. So, without Tom a lot of people wouldn't have health insurance. -- Mitt Romney, commenting on the death of Tom Stemberg, cofounder of Staples

Oops! Looks like the Mittster realized his gaffe. Here's his Facebook retraction: Getting people health insurance is a good thing, and that's what Tom Stemberg fought for. I oppose Obamacare and believe it has failed. It drove up premiums, took insurance away from people who were promised otherwise, and usurped state programs. As I said in the campaign, I'd repeal it and replace it with state-crafted plans.

... They Just Can't Help Themselves. Caitlin Cruz of TPM: "House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) announced Friday the appointment of eight Republicans (four women and four men) to the House Energy and Commerce Committee's Select Investigative Panel focused on 'big abortion providers' -- namely Planned Parenthood. He appointed Rep. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN) as panel chair. Other members are Rep. Joe Pitts (PA), Rep. Diane Black (TN), Rep. Larry Bucshon (IN), Rep. Sean Duffy (WI), Rep. Andy Harris (MD), Rep. Vicky Hartzler (MO) and Rep. Mia Love (UT)." ...

... Paul Waldman: "... I guess because the Select Committee on Benghazi has been such a success. And John Boehner even appointed some women to sit on it, which was mighty generous of him." ...

... Charles Pierce: "... John Boehner, who may just be pranking the bastards at this point, on Friday announced the members of the next Special Committee For Expanded Ratfcking. This one will look into the fictitious sale of baby parts by Planned Parenthood. Here are your dogged GOP inquisitors tasked with 'investigating' 'evidence' produced by phony videotapes." CW: You will want to read Pierce's dive into the views of these excellent legislator-investigators, one of whom is a member of the "watch China caucus" on accounta she read an article -- I'm sure in a highly-regarded, peer-reviewed journal -- that China is spying on us through our appliances." ...

... CW: You think life imitates art? In Right Wing World, life is art. Every notion that passes through that thing between their ears is pure fiction, contrived by a vast crackpot conspiracy.

Julian Hattem of the Hill: "House Democrats have decided to stay put on the Select Committee on Benghazi, at least temporarily, despite mounting pressure for them to boycott its work.... Still, after a roughly hour-long meeting with House Democratic Leader Nancy Pelosi (Calif.) on Friday, the committee's five Democrats repeated their demand that Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) end the 'abusive, wasteful, and obviously partisan effort.' ...

... Dan Balz of the Washington Post: "Former secretary of state Hillary Rodham Clinton's appearance before the House Benghazi committee provided one more example of the breakdown of a Republican Party torn by factionalism and heavily influenced by a cadre of supporters who are far less interested in governing than in expressing its anger." ...

It might as well have been an informercial for the Clinton campaign. Courtesy of the Benghazi Committee. -- Josh Marshall of TPM

Yup. And that's why Fox "News" dropped its coverage when the other cable news networks did not. -- Constant Weader

... Adele Stan of the American Prospect on "why Hillary makes right-wingers so crazy.... In the right-wing mind, there is nothing so ruinous to America as the liberation of women. The right's entire ideological structure is built on worship of the Great White Father and veneration of the stern, Caucasian, disciplinarian dad. It's a worldview centered on a jealous, blue-eyed Father God, a military dispatched to teach the world a lesson, and a president who serves as the national patriarch. A President Hillary Rodham Clinton poses the gravest threat to that worldview yet -- perhaps even graver than the threat to it posed by the nation's first black president, given that more than half of Americans are women."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Paul Krugman: "The Republicans wanted to portray Hillary Clinton as a super-villain, and ended up making her look like a superhero. But the real losers here are the reporters and centrist pundits who let themselves be played, month after month, by Trey Gowdy and company. I mean, anyone who took these chumps seriously has proved himself an ever bigger chump than they are."

Presidential Race

Gail Collins: "Monday is Hillary Clinton's birthday. Don't bother sending a gift. This week has given her all the presents she needs."

Karen Tumulty of the Washington Post: "Throughout her political career, Hillary Rodham Clinton's greatest curse -- the reaction she provokes in her adversaries -- has also been her salvation. That was proved once again during her 11-hour inquisition by the House Select Committee on Benghazi, a Republican-engineered train wreck from which she emerged without a scratch....'She generally has been better with her back to the wall than when she is comfortably ahead,' said David Axelrod, who was Barack Obama's chief political strategist for both of his presidential campaigns...." ...

... Francis Wilkinson of Bloomberg: "... not only is Clinton back where she started, so is the GOP. The party is no closer to gaining Hispanic, Asian or black votes than it was in 2012. (Spanish media has been highlighting Republican anti-immigrant tirades for months.) Meanwhile, the elderly white share of the electorate -- the Republican base -- continues to shrink. Bernie, Biden and Benghazi have been fun, but they've done nothing to alter the demographic dynamic of 2016. And Republicans appear no more prepared to answer the challenge." ...

... Patrick Healy & Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "With Hillary Rodham Clinton emerging as the unrivaled leader in the Democratic contest, the unruly Republican presidential field suddenly seemed to lack a center of political gravity on Friday, leaving party strategists and voters to fear a long nomination fight that could end with a damaged standard-bearer facing a more unified left. [Jeb] Bush cut salaries, fired consultants and laid off or reassigned many campaign workers. It was the latest sign that contenders vying for support from moderates and the party's establishment are all but running on fumes -- exhausting their cash, or the patience of their supporters, but barely moving in the polls. [Donald] Trump, for months a leading candidate, has now fallen behind in Iowa to [Ben] Carson ... a retired neurosurgeon, raising questions about how aggressively he will act to reverse his sagging poll numbers. And Mr. Carson, whose fund-raising has roughly kept pace with his climb in the polls, is moving to run television commercials in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina...." ...

... "Toasttoasttoasttoasttoast."* Philip Rucker, et al., of the Washington Post: "Jeb Bush acknowledged Friday what has been obvious for weeks: The rise of Donald Trump and other political outsiders has fundamentally reshaped the contours of the 2016 presidential race, forcing Bush to retrench with a major downsizing of his political operation and a reassessment of how and where he will campaign. A week after reporting third-quarter fundraising results that only the Bush staff claimed were adequate, the onetime Republican front-runner who now lags in the polls detailed a series of substantial cutbacks and changes to his strategy." ...

     * Thanks, Gail.

... Here's the Bush campaign staff memo outlining the cutbacks. Includes whiney snark: "We would be less than forthcoming if we said we predicted in June that a reality television star supporting Canadian-style single-payer health care and partial-birth abortion would be leading the G.O.P. primary." ...

... Not a Good sign, Jeb! Eliza Collins of Politico: Megyn Kelly of Fox "News" asks Jeb!, "What would it take to make you get out?" CW: Me, I wonder if his fatcat friends will still support him, as they've been doing, once he leaves the race & has zero prospects of ever becoming a purchasable pol. ...

... Justin Wolfers of the New York Times: "Jeb Bush is no longer the leading contender to become the Republican candidate for president. Instead, prediction markets now rate Marco Rubio as far more likely to get the nod. One broad measure of the betting markets puts Mr. Rubio's chances at 34 percent versus Mr. Bush's at 23 percent."

I don't believe those polls, by the way, because both of those pollsters don't like me. -- Donald Trump on two Iowa polls -- Quinnipiac & the Des Moines Register -- that show him 8 & 9 points respectively behind Ben Carson

Andrew Kaczynski of BuzzFeed: "Conflicting headlines -- such as one from Fox News -- said [Ben] Carson was already close to having Secret Service protection activated. Meanwhile, a Washington Post story threw cold water on the report citing an official saying the Department of Homeland Security was still debating the matter. 'I'd prefer not to talk about security issues but I have recognized -- and people have been telling me for many many months -- that I'm in great danger, because I challenge the secular progressive movement to the very core,' Carson told WABC radio's Rita Cosby Show on Thursday. 'You know, they see me as an existential threat but I also believe in the good lord and we take reasonable precautions.'"

News Ledes

New York Times: "Maureen O’Hara, the spirited Irish-born actress who played strong-willed, tempestuous beauties opposite all manner of adventurers in escapist movies of the 1940s and ’50s, died on Saturday at her home in Boise, Idaho. She was 95."

Weather Channel: "Hurricane Patricia became the strongest hurricane ever known to make landfall on the Pacific coast of Mexico after the center of its eye crossed the coast of Jalisco state early Friday evening. Its winds are rapidly losing strength as its center of circulation slices into the interior of southwest Mexico overnight." ...

... Washington Post: "Hurricane Patricia, packing the strongest hurricane winds ever recorded, weakened overnight to a Category 1 storm as it moved inland over southwestern Mexico, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane is expected to become a tropic storm later today, but could still produce heavy rains that cause flash floods and mudslides, the center warned."