The Commentariat -- January 2, 2018

Late Morning/Afternoon Update:

Post Hoc, ergo Propter Hoc. Brianna Gurciullo & Lauren Gardner of Poliitico: "... Donald Trump on Tuesday appeared to claim that his policies in his first year in the White House resulted in the commercial aviation industry posting its safest year ever in 2017 -- though the U.S. had gone years without a U.S. commercial airline fatality before he took office. 'Since taking office I have been very strict on Commercial Aviation,' Trump tweeted Tuesday morning. 'Good news - it was just reported that there were Zero deaths in 2017, the best and safest year on record!'... There has not been an accidental death on a domestic commercial airline since February 2009, when a Colgan Air flight crashed into a house near Buffalo, N.Y., killing 49 people on board and one person on the ground.... Congress hasn't directed any new aviation policy since mid-2016.... Former President Barack Obama appointee Michael Huerta has been at the helm of the FAA [-- which is responsible for air traffic safety --] since 2011." Thanks to Marvin S. for the lead. Mrs. McC: We've known for a long time that Trump is the rooster who crows at morn; it's never been so obvious that the Rooster-in-Chief thinks he causes the sun to rise.

Post Hatch, ergo Romney Hack. Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Senator Orrin G. Hatch of Utah, the longest-serving Senate Republican, announced on Tuesday he will retire at the end of the year, rebuffing the pleas of President Trump to seek an eighth term and paving the way for Mitt Romney, a critic of Mr. Trump's, to run for the seat. Mr. Hatch made his decision public on Tuesday afternoon via a video announcement.... Mr. Hatch, 83, was under heavy pressure from Mr. Trump to seek re-election and block Mr. Romney...."

David Nakamura of the Washington Post: "President Trump on Tuesday appeared to suggest that Huma Abedin, a former top aide to Hillary Clinton, should face jail time, days after the State Department posted emails found on her estranged husband's computer that included confidential government information. In a tweet, Trump also urged the Justice Department to act in prosecuting Abedin and former FBI director James B. Comey.... 'Crooked Hillary Clinton's top aid, Huma Abedin, has been accused of disregarding basic security protocols. She put Classified Passwords into the hands of foreign agents. Remember sailors pictures on submarine? Jail! Deep State Justice Dept must finally act? Also on Comey & others'-- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump).' The State Department, responding to a lawsuit from Judicial Watch, posted online copies of Abedin's emails from her nongovernment address that had been discovered on the laptop of her estranged husband, Anthony Weiner, during an FBI investigation.... Trump appeared to be reacting to a report in the Daily Caller that found Abedin had forwarded State Department passwords to her personal Yahoo account before Yahoo faced high-level hacks that affected all account-holders."

Glenn Kessler, et al., of the Washington Post: "With just 18 days before President Trump completes his first year as president, he is now on track to exceed 2,000 false or misleading claims, according to our database that analyzes, categorizes and tracks every suspect statement uttered by the president. As of Monday, the total stood at 1,950 claims in 347 days, or an average of 5.6 claims a day. (Our full interactive graphic can be found here.)... There are now more than 60 claims that he has repeated three or more times.... We currently have a tie for Trump's most repeated claims, both made 61 times. Both of these claims date from the start of Trump's presidency and to a large extent have faded as talking points. One of these claims was some variation of the statement that the Affordable Care Act is dying and 'essentially dead.'..." Trump also repeatedly takes credit for events or business decisions that happened before he took the oath of office -- or had even been elected."

James Hohmann of the Washington Post: "We are living through another Gilded Age, with growing inequality and a government that is once again tipping the scales in favor of the rich at the expense of the little guy. 'You all just got a lot richer,' Trump boasted to members of Mar-a-Lago on Dec. 22, according to CBS. He was talking about the tax bill that he had signed a few hours earlier, which will add more than $1 trillion to the national debt to line the pockets of the 1-percenters who can afford the $200,000 initiation fee to join Trump's club. In the week that followed, Trump kept giving his members new reasons to celebrate. While cable news fixated on how much he was golfing -- NBC reports that Monday was Trump's 91st day at a golf course as president -- his political appointees back in Washington worked overtime to deconstruct the administrative state, eviscerate several of Barack Obama's signature achievements and roll back significant environmental protections. Underscoring how politically unpopular these moves are, most were rolled out on the Fridays before Christmas and New Year's Eve to minimize media coverage and public notice." Hohmann lists ten of the administration's holiday atrocities.

Edward-Isaac Dovere of Politico: John Dean, President Nixon's counsel, "thinks that in today’s media and political environment, Nixon might have finished his term. 'There's social media, there's the internet; the news cycles are faster. I think Watergate would have occurred at a much more accelerated speed than the 928 days it took to go from the arrest at the Watergate to the conviction of Haldeman and Ehrlichman and [John] Mitchell, et al.,' Dean said. 'There's more likelihood he might have survived if there'd been a Fox News.'... And, says the man who ...became the prosecution's star witness in the process that helped take down Richard Nixon, no one in the president's orbit should assume they're prepared for everything that cooperating witnesses George Papadopoulos and Michael Flynn might be telling Robert Mueller, as their statements have suggested -- whether it's done out of confidence from their own review or just out of public bluster.... '[Nixon, Haldeman & Ehrlichman] didn't know how much I knew. I knew much more than they thought I did,' Dean told me.... 'With Flynn and his proximity, he had even more proximity than I did.'" Mrs. McC: Thanks, Fox "News."

Michael Georgy of Reuters: "Iranian protesters attacked police stations late into the night on Monday, news agency and social media reports said, as security forces struggled to contain the boldest challenge to the clerical leadership since unrest in 2009."

*****

Steve Beynon of Politico: "... Donald Trump kicked off the New Year with tweets blasting Pakistan, Iran and former U.S. presidents...."

Paul Krugman explains why the economy is doing well despite Trump & Mnuchin: "... in normal times the president has very little influence on macroeconomic developments -- far less influence than the chair of the Federal Reserve. This only stops being true when the economy is so depressed that monetary policy loses traction, as was the case in 2009-10; at that point it mattered a lot that Obama was willing to engage in fiscal stimulus, and it also mattered a lot, unfortunately, that Republican opposition plus Obama's own caution meant that the stimulus was much smaller than it should have been. By 2016, however, the aftershocks of the financial crisis had faded away to the point that the usual rules once again applied.... Let's hope ... that by the time stuff happens, we'll actually have non-delusional people in charge."

Choe San-Hung & David Sanger of the New York Times: "Beyond a New Year's declaration by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, that he would move to the mass-production of nuclear weapons and intercontinental missiles in 2018 lies a canny new strategy to initiate direct talks with South Korea in the hope of driving a wedge into its seven-decade alliance with the United States. Mr. Kim, perhaps sensing the simmering tension between President Trump and President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, called for an urgent dialogue between the two Koreas before the opening of the Winter Olympics in the South next month. The strained relationship between the allies has been playing out for months, as Mr. Moon, a liberal, argued for economic and diplomatic openings with the North, even as Mr. Trump has worked hard to squeeze the North with increasingly punishing sanctions." ...

     ... Mrs. Bea McCrabbie: Let's face it: even Li'l Kim is smarter than Trump.

We are quiet about it. We repeatedly state that Trump "harms China." We want to keep it that way. In fact, he has given China a huge gift. That is the American withdrawal from T.P.P.... As the U.S. retreats globally, China shows up. -- Maj. Gen. Jin Yinan, a strategist at China's National Defense University. Jan. 20, 2017 ...

... "Making China Great Again." Evan Osnos of the New Yorker: "For years, China's leaders predicted that a time would come -- perhaps midway through this century -- when it could project its own values abroad. In the age of 'America First,' that time has come far sooner than expected." This is a long piece.

On a slow-gnus day, why not look at the Mooch's future? Margaret Hartmann obliges with the latest scintillating gossip about the possibility of Anthony Scaramucci's returning to the White House: "... this is a White House where where unqualified relatives can serve as top advisers and former Apprentice stars can cause a scene outside the president’s private residence (allegedly). Can you really blame people for holding on to the dream of another 11 days with the Mooch in charge?"

Reversal of Fortunes. Yashar Ali of the Huffington Post: "Gretchen Carlson, who helped ignite the discussion of workplace harassment when she sued then-Fox News Chairman Roger Ailes for sexual harassment, is going to serve as chair of the Miss America Organization board of directors. This will be the first time a former Miss America has served as the leader of the nearly 100-year-old organization. (Carlson was Miss America in 1989.) In addition, former Miss Americas Laura Kaeppeler Fleiss (Miss America 2012), Heather French Henry (Miss America 2000) and Kate Shindle (Miss America 1998) are joining the board. HuffPost revealed internal Miss America Organization emails between former Miss America CEO Sam Haskell and other board members that were filled with misogynistic and inappropriate language directed toward two former Miss Americas, Mallory Hagan (Miss America 2013) and Shindle."

Robin Pogrebin of the New York Times: "After accusations of sexual harassment and physical and verbal abuse, Peter Martins, the powerful leader of New York City Ballet who shaped the company for more than three decades, has decided to retire. 'I have denied, and continue to deny, that I have engaged in any such misconduct,' Mr. Martins, 71, wrote in a letter dated on Monday informing the board of his retirement, which takes effect immediately.... Board members were told of his decision in a conference call Monday evening, when they also learned that he had been arrested on Thursday and charged with driving while intoxicated in Westchester County.... Five City Ballet dancers -- one of whom is still with the company — recently came forward in The New York Times to describe verbal and physical abuse dating as far back as 1993.... In recent interviews, 24 women and men -- all former dancers at the company or its school -- described a culture of intimidation under Mr. Martins, which they said has hurt the careers of generations of performers."

** Ed Simon of the History News Network, via RawStory: "Trumpian Christianity is but one chapter in a long lineage of hypocritical capitulation of principle to sovereigns in the name of worldly power.... But while there is a long custom of right-wing evangelicals bellyaching about their perceived oppression ... there are now no compunctions about jumping into bed with the most manifestly irreligious of presidents in modern history.... An irony since if the anti-Christ is supposed to be a manipulative, powerful, smooth-talking demagogue with the ability to sever people from their most deeply held beliefs who would be a better candidate than the seemingly indestructible Trump? Well I don't believe in a literal anti-Christ, and to accuse Trump of being one gives the president far too much credit. At his core he is simply a consummate narcissist with little intelligence and less curiosity." Read on. --safari ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Simon makes the obvious, but too seldom recognized, connection between Nazi "positive" Christianity & today's Trumpian version.

Beyond the Beltway

Jessica Mason of Slate: "Working people in New York state will ring in the new year with an important new right on the job: up to eight weeks of paid family leave (increasing to 12 weeks by 2021).... New York's program offers the most inclusive paid family leave in the country, covering not only new parents but also family caregivers and military families with needs related to active duty deployment.... New parents in New York will have equal coverage regardless of gender, including adoptive and foster parents." Mrs. McC: The insurance portion of the program is some kind of genius (because I, Mrs. Bea McCrabbie, never thought of it).

The Commentariat -- January 1, 2018

Washington Post readers choose their 2017 quote of the year. They also name several other reader favorites. AND the winner is: "

You're saying it's a falsehood, and they're giving -- our press secretary, Sean Spicer, gave alternative facts to that. -- Kellyanne Conway to Chuck Todd, January 22, 2017 ...

Daniella Diaz of CNN: "Veteran journalist Carl Bernstein said Sunday that ... Donald Trump's lawyers are telling him what he wants to hear about the probe ending soon to prevent Trump from firing [Robert] Mueller. 'There are many times he has expressed, I'm told by people in the White House, the desire to fire Mueller, the desire to pardon people under investigation including his family,' Bernstein, a CNN contributor, told CNN's Dana Bash on 'State of the Union.' 'His lawyers are telling him what he wants to hear -- that's what I'm told -- by lawyers in the White House..., to keep him from acting precipitously and to go off and fire Mueller in a rage, or fire (Deputy Attorney General) Rod Rosenstein in a rage. They have an out-of-control client.'" ...

... Amy Remeikis of the Guardian: "The Australian prime minister, Malcolm Turnbull, has not denied a report that information from senior diplomat Alexander Downer helped spark the FBI investigation into Russian interference in the 2016 US election." ...

     ... Here's some background on Downer. ...

... Karoun Demirjian of the Washington Post: "Rep. Devin Nunes, once sidelined by an ethics inquiry from leading the House Intelligence Committee's Russia probe, is reasserting the full authority of his position as chairman just as the GOP appears poised to challenge special counsel Robert S. Mueller III's investigation.... Nunes has stepped up his attacks on Mueller's team and the law enforcement agencies around it, including convening a group of Intelligence Committee Republicans to draft a likely report on 'corruption' among the investigators working for the special counsel. Although Nunes has not officially wrested his panel's Russia probe back from the Republicans he deputized to run it, the chairman's reemergence as a combative Trump loyalist has raised alarm among Democrats that the future of the investigation may be clipped short or otherwise undermined. Even some of Nunes's GOP allies [like Trey Gowdy (S.C.)] have expressed concern about his tactics, prompting rare public warnings that he should temper his attacks on federal law enforcement.... Last month..., Nunes began threatening contempt citations for FBI Director Christopher A. Wray and Deputy Attorney General Rod J. Rosenstein.... Nunes's moves coincide with what Democrats say is a coordinated GOP effort to shutter the House Intelligence Committee's Russia probe, publicly absolve President Trump of the most serious allegations against him, and refocus the House's resources against the law enforcement officials ... who continue to investigate Trump."

Rachel Tillman of ABC News: "The United States faces a greater threat of nuclear conflict on the Korean peninsula than at any previous time, said a former head of the Joint Chiefs of Staff under both presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama. 'We're actually closer in my view, to a nuclear war with North Korea and in that region than we have ever been,' Ret. Navy Adm. Michael Mullen told ABC News 'This Week' co-anchor Martha Raddatz in an interview Sunday. 'I don't see the opportunities to solve this diplomatically at this particular point.'... 'I think President Trump has made China move more than they have in the past. Whether they continue to do that to help resolve this is the open question,' he said. 'A real measure of how this all comes out is whether China is going to commit to a peaceful resolution here. If they don't, then I worry a great deal that it's much more likely there will be conflict.'" ...

... Simon Denyer of the Washington Post: "North Korean leader Kim Jong Un boasted in an annual New Year's Day speech Monday that he had a nuclear button on his desk and that the entire United States was within range of his weapons -- but he also vowed not to attack unless threatened. Kim promised to focus this year on producing nuclear warheads and missiles for operational deployment." ...

... Choe Sang-Hun of the New York Times: "North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un, moved Monday to ease his country's isolation by offering to send a delegation to the Winter Olympics in South Korea next month, even as he claimed to have accomplished the ability to launch a nuclear missile at the mainland United States. Mixing the nuclear threat with an overture for easing tensions on the divided Korean Peninsula, Mr. Kim proposed immediate dialogue with South Korea to discuss the North's participation in the Olympics. If such talks were held, they would mark the first time the two Koreas have had an official dialogue since the South's new president, Moon Jae-in, took office in May. Mr. Moon has doggedly championed dialogue with the North, even as President Trump has threatened military action to stop the North's nuclear weapons program."

Oliver Milman of the Guardian: "For the first time in more than 40 years, the largest source of greenhouse gas pollution in the US isn't electricity production but transport -- cars, trucks, planes, trains and shipping. Emissions data has placed transport as the new king of climate-warming pollution at a time when the Trump administration is reviewing or tearing up regulations that would set tougher emissions standards for car and truck companies. Republicans in Congress are also pushing new fuel economy rules they say will lower costs for American drivers but could also weaken emissions standards.... Americans are buying larger cars and taking more flights -- domestic aviation emissions grew 10% between 2012 and 2016 -- and face little opposition in doing so."

Quinta Jurecic in a Washington Post op-ed: "Under E. Scott Lloyd, the antiabortion activist appointed by President Trump to lead the [Office of Refugee Resettlement], ORR has prohibited pregnant undocumented minors from attending counseling at anywhere other than 'life-affirming' crisis pregnancy centers. In fact, Lloyd requires federally funded shelters to request his personal permission before 'facilitating' any access to abortion. What's most striking about Lloyd's memo refusing [to allow 'Jane Poe' to have an abortion] ... is the utter lack of legal analysis. As a person within the United States, Poe had a constitutional right to an abortion. But Lloyd focused instead on his own religious convictions. 'To decline to assist in an abortion here is to decline to participate in violence against an innocent life,' he wrote. 'Moral and criminal responsibility for the pregnancy lies with [Poe's] attacker, and no one else.'... Lloyd's memo displays this same confusion between ORR's responsibilities as a government agency and Lloyd's imagined role as a private guardian."

AP: "Minnesota Lt. Gov. Tina Smith [D] is vowing to 'hit the ground running' as she joins the U.S. Senate this week while preparing to run in November. Gov. Mark Dayton [D] appointed Smith, his second-in-command, to replace Democratic Sen. Al Franken, who announced his resignation after a string of sexual misconduct allegations. The resignation takes effect Tuesday; Smith will be sworn in by former Vice President Walter Mondale on Wednesday.... Smith plans to run for the remaining two years of Franken's term in a special election in November, just 10 months away." Mrs. McC: You can't call her Al.

Ben Casselman of the New York Times: "Democrats in high-cost, high-tax states are plotting ways to do what their states' representatives in Congress could not: blunt the impact of the newly passed Republican tax overhaul. Governors and legislative leaders in New York, California and other states are considering legal challenges to elements of the law that they say unfairly single out parts of the country. They are looking at ways of raising revenue that aren't penalized by the new law. And they are considering changing their state tax codes to allow residents to take advantage of other federal tax breaks -- in effect, restoring deductions that the tax law scaled back. One proposal would replace state income taxes, which are no longer fully deductible under the new law, with payroll taxes on employers, which are deductible. Another idea would be to allow residents to replace their state income tax payments with tax-deductible charitable contributions to their state governments."

Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "Responding to the retirement of a prominent appeals court judge accused of sexual harassment, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. said the federal court system must do more to protect law clerks and other employees from abusive conduct. 'Events in recent months have illuminated the depth of the problem of sexual harassment in the workplace,' the chief justice wrote in his year-end report on the state of the federal judiciary, released Sunday, 'and events in the past few weeks have made clear that the judicial branch is not immune.' That was an unmistakable reference to the sudden retirement of Judge Alex Kozinski two weeks ago after The Washington Post reported that some 15 women had accused him of sexual harassment.... Chief Justice Roberts said he had assembled a task force to examine whether the court system's procedures for addressing inappropriate conduct were adequate."

Bigot-in-Chief Loses Court Fight. Amanda Arnold of New York: "After Donald Trump attempted to bar transgender people from joining the U.S. military this July, various civil-rights groups and five transgender soldiers sued his administration, with four federal courts blocking the ban. Starting tomorrow, transgender people will be able to openly enroll, the Week reports. Two days ago, the Department of Justice announced that it would not appeal two rulings in Washington and Virginia that blocked Trump's ban. Pentagon spokesperson Heather Babb confirmed to Reuters in a statement that on January 1, transgender recruits will be accepted."

Steve Lohr of the New York Times: "For the first time, helped by recent advances in artificial intelligence, researchers [at Stanford University] are able to analyze large quantities of images, pulling out data that can be sorted and mined to predict things like income, political leanings and buying habits. In the Stanford study, computers collected details about cars in the millions of images it processed, including makes and models.... By pulling the vehicles' makes, models and years from the images, and then linking that information with other data sources, the project was able to predict factors like pollution and voting patterns at the neighborhood level.By pulling the vehicles' makes, models and years from the images, and then linking that information with other data sources, the project was able to predict factors like pollution and voting patterns at the neighborhood level.... This kind of research, if it expands, will raise issues of data access and privacy. The Stanford project only made predictions about neighborhoods, not about individuals."

Beyond the Beltway

Tom McGhee of the Denver Post: "The gunman who killed a Douglas County[, Colorado,] deputy and wounded four law enforcement officers Sunday ambushed them after they responded to a domestic disturbance call at a Highlands Ranch apartment complex, Sheriff Tony Spurlock said. 'He knew we were coming,' Spurlock said. He said the gunman used a rifle and fired at least 100 rounds. The gunman, identified as a 37-year-old former soldier and lawyer, was killed in a shootout with officers.... After the officers entered the suspect's apartment, he barricaded himself inside a bedroom and then unleashed a volley of gunfire. All the officers were wearing bulletproof vests but were struck in unprotected parts of their bodies.... Spurlock said the gunman had no apparent criminal history, but he was well known to law enforcement. Spurlock declined to provide further details. The sheriff's office identified the gunman as Matthew Riehl, an Iraq war veteran who has posted a number of anti-law-enforcement videos on YouTube."

Adam Elmahrek of the Los Angeles Times: "An Imperial County high school football player must be allowed to kneel during the singing of the national anthem and can't be ordered by his school to stand for the performances, a federal court has ruled. The decision temporarily strikes down rules set by the San Pasqual Valley Unified School District that prohibited 'kneeling, sitting or similar forms of political protest' at athletic events and required students and coaches to 'stand and remove hats/helmets ... during the playing or singing of the National Anthem,' according to the Dec. 21 ruling by the U.S. District Court for the Southern District of California. The school district set the rules after students from a rival high school in neighboring Arizona yelled racial slurs at San Pasqual Valley High School students and threatened to force the football player at the center of the controversy to stand, the ruling said." The player who knelt was Native American. Students at the school "are primarily Native American and Latino." Students at the Arizona school are primarily white.

Brian Melley of the AP: "Californians may awake on New Year's Day to a stronger-than-normal whiff of marijuana as America's cannabis king lights up to celebrate the state's first legal retail pot sales. The historic day comes more than two decades after California paved the way for legal weed by passing the nation's first medical marijuana law, though other states were quicker to allow the drug's recreational use." Mrs. McC: The headline is (probably unintentionally) funny: "Anticipation high as California rolls out retail pot sales."

Daniel Politi of Slate: "An elementary school in Cache Valley, Utah fired an art teacher after claiming that students became uncomfortable by postcards that depicted classical paintings, a few of which contained nudity. One parent even called the police, accusing the teacher of showing the students pornography.... [Teacher] Mateo Rueda had fifth and sixth grade students ... go to the library and look through art books and boxes of postcards so they could select which paintings best exemplified the color relationships they had been studying. That's when Rueda realized that some of the postcards, which he claims had been in the library long before he started teaching there, included some nude paintings.... He took some of the nude pictures back and then went through the pack to remove paintings he thought were inappropriate. Still, he explained to the students that nudity in art is normal.... One anonymous school official told the local Herald Journal that the firing had more to do with the way the teacher talked about the nudity than the nudity itself." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Looks to me like a clearcut case of wrongful termination. If those prudish yokels didn't want the kiddies to see portraits of nude or semi-nude bodies, maybe they shouldn't have made them available in the school library. Did they fire the librarian, too?

Way Beyond

Nasser Karimi & Jon Gambrell of the AP: "At least 12 people have been killed in the ongoing protests in Iran, and armed protesters have tried to take over police stations and military bases, state TV reported Monday.... The state TV report said 10 were killed during clashes Sunday night, without elaborating. Two demonstrators were killed during a protest in western Iran late Saturday." ...

... Martin Fackler & Rick Gladstone of the New York Times: "After four days of rare protests that shook Iran, President Hassan Rouhani tried to calm the nation on Sunday, saying that people had the right to protest and acknowledging public concerns over the economy and corruption.... But he also exhorted Iranians not to resort to violence, after reports of protesters attacking banks and municipal buildings across the nation, including a local government building in Tehran."

The Commentariat -- December 31, 2017

Sydney, Australia, Fireworks 2018:

Peter Baker of the New York Times: "Under Mr. Trump, [the presidency] has become a blunt instrument to advance personal, policy and political goals. He has revolutionized the way presidents deal with the world beyond 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, dispensing with the carefully modulated messaging of past chief executives in favor of no-holds-barred, crystal-breaking, us-against-them, damn-the-consequences blasts borne out of gut and grievance. He has kept a business on the side; attacked the F.B.I., C.I.A. and other institutions he oversees; threatened to use his power against rivals; and waged war against members of his own party and even his own cabinet. He fired the man investigating his campaign and has not ruled out firing the one who took over. He has appealed to base instincts on race, religion and gender as no president has in generations. And he has rattled the nuclear saber more bombastically than it has been since the days of Hiroshima and Nagasaki."

Russia, Russia, Russia

** Happy New Year, Donaldo. You Are So Screwed. Sharon LaFraniere, et al., of the New York Times: "During a night of heavy drinking at an upscale London bar in May 2016, George Papadopoulos, a young foreign policy adviser to the Trump campaign, made a startling revelation to Australia's top diplomat in Britain: Russia had political dirt on Hillary Clinton. About three weeks earlier, Mr. Papadopoulos had been told that Moscow had thousands of emails that would embarrass Mrs. Clinton, apparently stolen in an effort to try to damage her campaign.... Two months later, when leaked Democratic emails began appearing online, Australian officials passed the information about Mr. Papadopoulos to their American counterparts, according to four current and former American and foreign officials.... The hacking and the revelation that a member of the Trump campaign may have had inside information about it were driving factors that led the F.B.I. to open an investigation in July 2016 into Russia's attempts to disrupt the election and whether any of President Trump's associates conspired.... While some of Mr. Trump's advisers have derided him as an insignificant campaign volunteer or a 'coffee boy,' interviews and new documents show that he stayed influential throughout the campaign." If you like cloak & dagger, read on. ...

WOW, @foxandfrlends 'Dossier is bogus. Clinton Campaign, DNC funded Dossier. FBI CANNOT (after all of this time) VERIFY CLAIMS IN DOSSIER OF RUSSIA/TRUMP COLLUSION. FBI TAINTED.' And they used this Crooked Hillary pile of garbage as the basis for going after the Trump Campaign! -- Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 26, 2017

Actually, no. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie ...

... Kevin Drum: The tweet above "is Exhibit A in the conservative agit-prop campaign to discredit the Trump-Russia investigation: It was all kicked by the Steele dossier, which was just a Hillary-funded hit job that the Trump-haters in the FBI used as an excuse to go after him.... [The FBI was] shocked -- as anyone would be -- that apparently the Trump campaign had advance knowledge of Russian dirty tricks aimed at the Clinton campaign." ...

... Benjamin Hart of New York: "... the Times article makes it clear that it was Papadopoulos, not Steele, who drove the investigation, at least in the beginning. This blows up an important line of attack for Republicans looking to tar Mueller -- though undoubtedly they'll find other ways to do it." ...

Russia, if you're listening, I hope you're able to find the 30,000 emails that are missing. -- Donald Trump, July 27, 2016

Oh, they were listening. And Trump knew it. -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie ...

... digby: "The rest of the details in the [Times] piece are all fascinating but the one that stands out is the fact that Papadopoulos spilled the information about the Clinton emails to an Australian agent in a bar in May of 2016, long before it was public, but we are supposed to believe he never mentioned it to the Trump campaign. Does that sound right to you? Yeah, I didn't think so. They knew. They said nothing to any authorities. They went on to meet with Russians about dirt on Clinton in June and Donald Trump Jr even said he 'loved it' and would like them to release it later in the summer. Trump even publicly encouraged them to do more. Trump is right when he says this isn't collusion. It's conspiracy and that, my friends is a crime.... Devin Nunes and his crew are covering up something very, very big." ...

     ... digby also points out that Luke Harding of the Guardian reported in April 2017 that British intelligence learned "in late 2015 of suspicious 'interactions' between figures connected to Trump and known or suspected Russian agents.... This intelligence was passed to the US as part of a routine exchange of information, they added." ...

... Nicholas Fandos of the New York Times: "A growing campaign by President Trump's most ardent supporters to discredit the special counsel, Robert S. Mueller III, and the law enforcement agencies assisting his investigation is opening new fissures in the Republican Party, with some lawmakers questioning the damage being done to federal law enforcement and to a political party that has long championed law and order. A small but vocal group of conservative lawmakers, much of the conservative media and, at times, the president himself have launched a series of attacks to paint not only Mr. Mueller but institutions once considered sacrosanct to Republicans like the F.B.I. and Justice Department as dangerously biased against Mr. Trump.... Now some Republican lawmakers are speaking out, worried that Trump loyalists, hoping for short-term gain, could wind up staining the party, dampening morale at the F.B.I. and Justice Department, and potentially recasting Democrats as the true friends of law enforcement for years to come. Straddling both camps is Mr. Trump, who in an interview on Thursday with The New York Times lavished praise on Republican congressmen who have defended him from a 'witch hunt' and expressed confidence that Mr. Mueller would 'treat me fairly.'"

Cashing In Again. Michelle Lee, et al., of the Washington Post: "President Trump is set to ring in the new year the same way he has for about two decades -- at the lavish party he hosts at his private club [in Palm Beach, Fla]. But this weekend's gala at Mar-a-Lago, his first since becoming president, will be a little different: The security will be tighter. The crowds will probably be bigger. And the tickets will run $750 a guest, a hike from last year...."

Justin Elliott of ProPublica: "The Justice Department is pushing for a question on citizenship to be added to the 2020 census, a move that observers say could depress participation by immigrants who fear that the government could use the information against them. That, in turn, could have potentially large ripple effects for everything the once-a-decade census determines -- from how congressional seats are distributed around the country to where hundreds of billions of federal dollars are spent. The DOJ made the request in a previously unreported letter, dated Dec. 12..., from DOJ official Arthur Gary to the top official at the Census Bureau, which is part of the Commerce Department. The letter argues that the DOJ needs better citizenship data to better enforce the Voting Rights Act 'and its important protections against racial discrimination in voting.'... People are not going to come out to be counted because they're going to be fearful the information would be used for negative purposes,' said Steve Jost, a former top bureau official during the 2010 census. 'This line about enforcing voting rights is a new and scary twist.' He noted that since the first census in 1790, the goal has been to count everyone in the country, not just citizens."

Josh Marshall (Dec. 28): "There is almost no limit to the bad policy included in the new GOP tax law.... I continue to believe that the (near total) end of deductions for SALT [state & local] taxes are likely to have the greatest political impact. They are also stimulating a new debate about the distribution of resources within the US federal system.... From a macro perspective, the SALT change means that the higher tax states (mainly but not exclusively blue states) will be sending a lot more money to the federal government. This is on top of the fact that blue/high tax states already send much more money in taxes to the federal government than they receive back in services, grants, general spending, etc. There are significant exceptions. But by and large federal taxing and spending policy draws money from the blue states and reallocates it into the red states.... This is all by design. This policy is intended to punish states that tend to vote Democratic." ...

... Rubio Opposes Bill He Voted for. Jacob Pramuk of CNBC (Dec. 29): "Sen. Marco Rubio says the GOP 'probably went too far' in slashing the tax burden on corporations. The Florida Republican told the News-Press of Fort Myers that corporations will largely use their major tax cut to buy back shares or increase dividends to shareholders -- which 'isn't going to create dramatic economic growth.'... 'By and large, you're going to see a lot of these multinationals buy back shares to drive up the price. Some of them will be forced, because they're sitting on historic levels of cash, to pay out dividends to shareholders.'" ...

... Josh Marshall: "... the most notable example [of Republicans opposing their own tax law] to me is not Marco Rubio and not specifically about the giveaways to the very wealthy but rather President Trump and his reference to the end of most deductions for SALT taxes.... What's he talking about [in his New York Times interview] with the SALT issue? As usual, in the same passage Trump can't seem to decide whether the change is awesome (Reagan tried and failed; I finally accomplished it.) or whether it's bad, too 'severe', etc. The upshot is that Trump seems to recognize that it's a problem and, because of that, tries to argue that it is Democrats' fault.... What stands out to me is that I think he recognizes that the SALT change is a political negative." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: Of course Trump opposes the $10K limit on the SALT deduction. Trump & the kids own personal property in New York on which the pay property taxes. I don't know where they claim residency now, but it very well may be New York City, a very high-tax city in a very high-tax state. No matter how much tax avoidance they're able to accomplish through pass-throughs & corporations, etc., they still have to pay personal SALT taxes on some income, & the amount each pays certainly far exceeds $10K. I'd guess Trump -- who says he knows more about his draconian tax law than anyone -- missed that little provision. Probably Fox "News" didn't cover it until people started rushing to their local assessors' offices to prepay their taxes. But that's the Democrats' fault. It would be in Trump's personal, as well as political, interest to rescind this part of the tax heist. I'll be surprised if he doesn't propose it, though it's not a safe bet he could get it through Congress, even though Congressional Republicans love him. ...

... Jackie Wattles, et al., of CNN: "In a race against looming changes to the tax code, Goldman Sachs handed out millions of dollars worth of stock awards to hundreds employees. The move will save the firm an estimated $140 million on its tax bill next year, a source familiar with the matter told CNNMoney." ...

     ... Mrs. McCrabbie: I'll bet many of those overcompensated yahoos -- the majority of whom probably live in high-tax states -- are happy to be able to apply SALT deductions to their 2017 super-booty. And they must be so grateful to former boss Gary Cohn for pushing hard for a tax heist that is going to deprive them of the deduction in future years, even as he & his craven cronies have lowered their tax rate.

Severe Gerrymandering A-OK in Pa. Trip Gabriel & Alexander Burns of the New York Times (Dec. 29): "A Pennsylvania judge said Friday the state's Congressional districts were drawn to give Republicans an advantage, but they did not violate the state Constitution, ruling in a high-profile gerrymandering case with the potential to have major consequences on the 2018 midterm elections. Judge P. Kevin Brobson of Commonwealth Court in Harrisburg noted that Republicans hold 13 out of 18 Congressional seats in Pennsylvania, a perennial swing state that has one of the most extensively gerrymandered maps in the country. Nonetheless, the judge said that Democrats who brought suit had failed to articulate a legal 'standard' for creating nonpartisan maps. The case now goes to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, which has agreed to fast-track it."

Glenn Greenwald: "Facebook has been on a censorship rampage against Palestinian activists who protest the decades-long, illegal Israeli occupation, all directed and determined by Israeli officials.... As the New York Times put it in December of last year, 'Israeli security agencies monitor Facebook and send the company posts they consider incitement. Facebook has responded by removing most of them.' What makes this censorship particularly consequential is that '96 percent of Palestinians said their primary use of Facebook was for following news.' That means that Israeli officials have virtually unfettered control over a key communications forum of Palestinians.... Facebook now seems to be explicitly admitting that it also intends to follow the censorship orders of the U.S. government.... What this means is ... that the U.S. government -- meaning, at the moment, the Trump administration -- has the unilateral and unchecked power to force the removal of anyone it wants from Facebook and Instagram by simply including them on a sanctions list." ...

     ... True to form, Greenwald is overwrought here, but I think his argument is an important one.

Way Beyond the Beltway

Thomas Erkbrink of the New York Times: "Iran's leaders were confronted by unauthorized protests in major cities for the third straight day on Saturday, with crowds aiming their anger at the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and some demanding that he step down. The demonstrators first took to the streets of Mashhad, one of the holiest places in Shiite Islam, on Thursday. By Saturday, dozens of people had been arrested and the police had fired tear gas to disperse crowds. On Saturday night, the protests turned violent, with at least two demonstrators shot in the western town of Dorud, according to a series of videos posted on social media. At least one of the videos was verified by BBC Persian. It could not be determined who was responsible for the gunfire. The protests, which erupted over declining economic conditions, corruption and a lack of personal freedoms, presented a serious challenge to the government of President Hassan Rouhani, who won re-election on promises to revitalize the economy."