The Commentariat -- October 15, 2015

Internal links removed.

Afternoon Update:

David Sanger of the New York Times: "The Obama administration is exploring a deal with Pakistan that would limit the scope of Pakistan's nuclear arsenal, the fastest-growing on earth. The discussions are the first in the decade since one of the founders of its nuclear program, Abdul Qadeer Khan, was caught selling the country's nuclear technology around the world."

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "An aide to Donald J. Trump has raised the possibility of the candidate not attending the next Republican presidential debate unless the criteria set by CNBC is changed, according to two people briefed on a conference call where the matter was discussed on Thursday."

Katherine Faulders of ABC News: "Republican presidential contender Dr. Ben Carson has put his public campaign events on hold for two more weeks to go on book tour for his new tome 'A More Perfect Union' and catch up on fundraising events." ...

... Ed Kilgore: "However you slice it, this development is going to remind the chattering classes of 2012 candidates Herman Cain and Newt Gingrich, who were frequently accused of using their campaigns to sell books and videos and so forth. Indeed, most candidates release their 'campaign books' either before or early in their candidacies, as appetizers, not ends in themselves." ...

... Laura Clawson of Daily Kos: "I'm not sure Sarah Palin could do any better at the GOP grifter act than this." CW: And you thought Donald Trump was the big publicity hound in this campaign.

Julie Davis of the New York Times: "Joe Biden is still playing coy with reporters on his political plans.

Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "The United States criminal justice system could be improved if we sell poor people convicted of crimes into slavery, according to Republican presidential candidate Mike Huckabee.... Huckabee's comments, which come 150 years after the 13th Amendment's adoption, appear to be the first time in modern history that a credible presidential candidate has joined the fringe call to reinstate slavery." CW: I've been ignoring Huckabee, & will continue to do so, but I thought endorsing slavery (because the Bible tells us so) was outrageous enough to link.

*****

... The Longest War. Matthew Rosenberg of the New York Times: "The United States will halt its military withdrawal from Afghanistan and instead keep thousands of troops in the country through the end of President Obama's term in 2017, Mr. Obama will announce on Thursday, prolonging the American role in a war that has now stretched on for 14 years."

Julie Bosman of the New York Times: "J. Dennis Hastert..., who rose to political power as the longest-serving Republican speaker of the House, intends to plead guilty as part of an agreement in a case where he is accused of skirting banking laws and lying to the federal investigators, according to proceedings Thursday in Federal District Court.... It was unclear what charges that Mr. Hastert would plead guilty to and what the sentence may be.... Mr. Hastert, 73, was charged in May with structuring cash withdrawals, totaling $1.7 million, in a manner intended to avoid detection by banking officials, and then lying about the withdrawals to the federal authorities.... Though the indictment did not say what the withdrawals were for, subsequent reports, citing unidentified government sources, said that they were 'hush money' to cover up allegations of sexual misconduct with a male student during Mr. Hastert's time as a high school teacher and coach in Yorkville, Ill...."

Robert Pear of the New York Times: "Congress and the Obama administration are frantically seeking ways to hold down Medicare premiums that could rise by roughly 50 percent for some beneficiaries next year, according to lawmakers and Medicare officials.... Aides to Representative Nancy Pelosi of California, the House Democratic leader, and Speaker John A. Boehner are quietly exploring a possible deal that would limit the expected increase in Medicare premiums." ...

... CW: MEANWHILE, Social Security benefits will stay flat. Recently My Damned Cat has taken to rejecting the catfood pate that was her main staple. I still have half a box of cans. Looks like I'll be snacking on catfood canapes.

New York Times Editors: "It was impossible not to feel a sense of relief watching the Democratic debate after months dominated by the Republican circus of haters, ranters and that very special group of king killers in Congress. For those despairing about the future of American politics, here was proof that it doesn't have to revolve around candidates who pride themselves on knowing nothing or believe that governing is all about destroying government.... What stood out most was the Democratic Party's big tent, capable of containing a spectrum of reality-based views." ...

    ... CW: That's right, folks. We have only one political party in which candidates campaign on "reality-based views." And you read it in the New York Times.

... Frank Rich: On the Debate: "The morning-after consensus (left, right, and center) is correct: Hillary Clinton not only romped over the competition -- such as it was -- but could well have shut down the prospect of a Biden run. But if the Clinton revival sustains itself, the turning point will not have been last night's debate but Kevin McCarthy's September 29 public admission on Fox News that the House Benghazi committee's main motivation was to take her out rather than investigate the deaths of four Americans taken out by terrorists." On the Speakership: "Ryan seems to think everything is beneath him except his lofty engagement in policy as chairman of the Ways and Means Committee -- policy being defined as cutting taxes for the GOP donor class and cutting entitlements like social security and Medicare for everyone else." ...

... Gail Collins on Hillary's good month. ...

... Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "All night, the debate played to Mrs. Clinton's advantage and to her opponents' limitations. From gun control and banking regulations to debt-free college and Social Security benefits, Mrs. Clinton positioned herself as a champion of liberals, young people, and the elderly -- the very voters who make up the Sanders coalition -- while also repeatedly reaching out to women, as an advocate for families and children (and as, potentially, the nation's first female president)." ...

... Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton's sure-footed performance in the first Democratic presidential debate did not just lift the spirits of her supporters and reassure nervous party officials about her candidacy, it also swiftly cooled talk about the need for Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. to enter the campaign and offer Democrats an alternative." ...

... Matt Yglesias has an excellent analysis of the debate performances.* "The policy-heavy dynamic ultimately played directly into Clinton's hand. On a stage of earnest, policy-oriented pols, she was simply the best briefed and the best able to fluently address a seemingly endless array of issues." ...

     * Pundit-wise, that is. See Adam Johnson's commentary, linked below. ...

... Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. CW: I'm with Nate Silver on this: "Before last night's debate, I suggested the media was likely to emerge with one of two narratives about the state of Hillary Clinton's campaign: Either she was mounting a comeback, or she was in a downward spiral.... Clinton gave about the performance that might reasonably have been expected from a frontrunner who gained a ton of experience as a debater during the 2008 Democratic primary: pretty good. Poised, polished and highly competent at appealing to various segments of the Democratic electorate. But also risk-averse and without all that many high notes.... The difference between FiveThirtyEight's view of the debate and Mark Halperin's or The New York Times' is that we've been skeptical of the 'Clinton in disarray' narrative for a long time." Krugman had a similar take in a post I linked yesterday. ...

... ** AND Adam Johnson of AlterNet: "Bernie Sanders by all objective measures 'won' the debate.... Sanders won the CNN focus group, the Fusion focus group, and the Fox News focus group; in the latter, he even converted several Hillary supporters. He won the Slate online poll, CNN/Time online poll, 9News Colorado, The Street online poll, Fox5 poll, the conservative Drudge online poll and the liberal Daily Kos online poll. There wasn't, to this writer's knowledge, a poll he didn't win by at least an 18-point margin. But you wouldn't know this from reading the establishment press.... This gap speaks to a larger gap we've seen since the beginning of the Sanders campaign. The mainstream media writes off Bernie and is constantly shocked when his polls numbers go up." ...

... Andy Borowitz: "In a major slip that may prove fatal to his Presidential ambitions, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont treated his principal opponent for the Democratic nomination with dignity and respect on Tuesday night. Calling it a gaffe of historic proportions, many political insiders were still scratching their heads Wednesday morning over Sanders's bizarre decision to act toward his opponent as if she were a fellow human being."

Amber Phillips of the Washington Post explains that grenade incident Jim Webb mentioned in his closing remarks. He received the Navy Cross for his actions.

Brian Stelter of CNN: "CNN's Tuesday night debate averaged 15.3 million viewers, easily making it the highest-rated Democratic debate ever."

Philip Rucker & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "The Democratic presidential candidates have thrust gun control forward as a dominant issue for the national election, crystallizing a sea change in the politics of a controversial subject that recent Democratic nominees have often avoided. After years of deadly mass shootings across the country, and with President Obama voicing deep frustration with inaction by Republicans in Congress, the Democratic candidates led by Hillary Rodham Clinton vowed in a debate [in Las Vegas, Nevada,] Tuesday night to toughen restrictions on gun owners and gun manufacturers."

CW: Marco, whose campaign staff evidently didn't give him the memo about the perils of accusing Democratic candidates of giving away "free stuff" the first time (Mitt), or the second time (Jeb!), makes the claim about half a dozen times in the space of a minute. The Free Stuff Lament must be part of the Republican zeitgeist. (To Marco's credit, he did not associate free-stuff giveaways with black recipients, as did Mitt & Jeb!) If it bothers them so much, they should spend more time talking about the "free stuff" they're giving away to their billionaire buddies:

Mark Hensch of the Hill: "Fox News anchor Megyn Kelly says she was shocked by Donald Trump's reaction to her debate questions and that she never expected a feud with the GOP front-runner. 'It's clear we may have overestimated his anger-management skills,' she said ... on Tuesday. Kelly said she wasn't singling out Trump and had asked tough questions of all the candidates during the Fox News debate."

Kira Lerner of Think Progress: "At a campaign stop in rural Iowa on Wednesday, Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz told ThinkProgress that activists with the Black Lives Matter movement -- people who have been peacefully protesting the murder of black men and women by law enforcement -- are 'literally suggesting and embracing and celebrating the murder of police officers.'... Despite a lack of evidence that Black Lives Matter has motivated any of the recent murders of police officers, conservative politicians have claimed that police officers are under attack thanks to Black Lives Matter's growing popularity. Meanwhile the number of police officers killed on the job has been steadily dropping for decades, with 51 officers killed last year." ...

... Jon Green of AmericaBlog: "Cruz knows as well as anyone that there's nothing but upside in going back to the race well in the Republican primary. Trump got plenty of lift going after Mexicans, Ben Carson with Muslims (plus his wink-and-nod to white voters on the Confederate Flag); and now Cruz with black people. As Cruz has positioned himself to be the 'Trump, but with an actual campaign infrastructure' candidate in the race, he's going to have to start peeling off the racist vote from the field's two front runners. And what better way to start than by implying that an explicitly anti-death movement is actually encouraging murder?"

Alan Steinweis, in a New York Times op-ed: "Ben Carson is wrong on guns and the Holocaust.... If the United States is going to arrive at a workable compromise solution to its gun problem, it will not be accomplished through the use of historical analogies that are false, silly and insulting." ...

... CW: The news media have a duty to ask Carson to defend his views against Steinweis's scholarship. Steinweis doesn't need to convince me. The issue is how Carson reacts when confronted with facts that rebut his loony remarks. Carson claims that his own profession -- unlike politics -- requires years of study. What about history? Is it, like politics, also gleaned intuitively? Or is Prof. Steinweis simply not privy to the CIA voices in Doc Ben's head? ...

... CW: I thought this was a Halloween joke or else an ad for some kind of paranormal institute's Ponzi scheme when I saw it in "Promoted Stories" (ads) at the bottom of Frank Rich's Q&A. But it's a link to Carson's campaign Webpage. It's still creepy.

Jeb! to Stay in Cheap Hotels to Please Billionaire Donors. Eli Stokols & Marc Caputo of Politico: "Although the Bush campaign has yet to release its fundraising numbers from the third quarter ahead of Thursday's deadline, the belt-tightening has already begun, at least around the margins with regard to travel.... Conceived as a fundraising juggernaut that would 'shock and awe' opponents into oblivion, Bush's campaign is suddenly struggling to raise hard dollars and increasingly economizing -- not because he's out of money, but to convince nervous donors, who are about to get their first look at his campaign's burn rate, that he's not wasting it."

** "It's Even Worse Than It Was When We Said It's Even Worse Than It Looks." Francis Wilkinson of Bloomberg discusses, via e-mail, the state of the Republican party with scholars Thomas Mann & Norm Ornstein.

** Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Jim Fallows of the Atlantic explains how the media -- have been enabling the Benghaaazi! committee & other partisan hackery. Fallows has a particular gift for putting together disparate events to demonstrate a trend &/or a cause-and-effect.

Jake Sherman & Anna Palmer of Politico: "House Speaker John Boehner is looking to move a bill to lift the debt ceiling before he leaves Congress, a tactic aimed at helping his successor, according to multiple sources with knowledge of internal party planning." ...

... Lauren French of Politico: "Republican leaders are formally asking their rank-and-file members to propose changes to the rules governing the House GOP conference. Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers, the chair of the Republican Conference and Rep. Luke Messer, the chair of the Policy Committee, sent a letter to lawmakers Wednesday night saying that the House GOP will continue debate on overhauling the rules of the House - a key demand from conservative members who helped oust Speaker John Boehner." ...

... Jake Sherman of Politico: "Republican leaders see Freedom Caucus members as a bunch of bomb-throwing ideologues with little interest in finding solutions that can pass a divided government. But that's a false reading of the group, [Rep. Justin] Amash [RTP-Michigan] told his constituents. Their mission isn't to drag Republican leadership to the right, though many of them would certainly favor more conservative outcomes. It's simply to force them to follow the institution's procedures, Amash argued." CW: They're really just for a more democratic process. Okay.

Scott Keyes of Think Progress: "A second House Republican has now conceded that the overarching purpose of the House Select Committee on Benghazi has been to attack former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.... 'Sometimes the biggest sin you can commit in D.C. is to tell the truth,' [Richard] Hanna [R-N.Y.] said in an interview on ... a radio show in upstate New York. The third-term congressman paused for a moment ... before going on to agree with [Kevin] McCarthy's original statement [about the purpose of the Benghaaazi! committee]. 'This may not be politically correct, but I think that there was a big part of this investigation that was designed to go after people and an individual, Hillary Clinton,' Hanna said.... 'I think that's the way Washington works. But you'd like to expect more from a committee that's spent millions of dollars and tons of time.'"

Linda Greenhouse: "... the future of the right to abortion once again -- still -- [is] in the hands of Justice Kennedy.... Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. and Justices Antonin Scalia, Clarence Thomas, and Samuel A. Alito Jr. ... chose to go on the record as being willing to let three-quarters of the abortion clinics in Texas shut down without a Supreme Court hearing." ...

... Oops! Didn't Mean to Leave Those Aborted Fetuses in the Trunk of My Car. Samantha Allen of the Daily Beast on a Michigan doctor who is in custody under suspicion of performing illegal abortions in an upscale Detroit suburb. CW: Assuming the evidence & allegations pan out, this is the kind of doctor whose services are certainly becoming more & more in demand as states add restrictions to legal abortions under the guise of caring so much about women's health. And, yes, it is women in "upscale neighborhoods" who will have the "advantage" of receiving these excellent services. Less wealthy women will have to resort to even worse alternatives. Thanks, Supremes!

Russ Choma of Mother Jones: "Former GOP presidential candidate Ron Paul took the stand in an Iowa federal courthouse [Wednesday] afternoon in the trial of two of his top aides from his 2012 presidential campaign. The aides have been accused of paying for the endorsement of an Iowa state senator and then trying to cover it up. Paul blasted prosecutors and the media while still testifying that he abhorred the concept of paying for endorsements. Paul was called as a witness for the prosecution in the trial of Jesse Benton, his 2012 presidential campaign chairman who is also married to Paul's granddaughter."

Terrence McCoy of the Washington Post: "In February of last year, the Georgetown [Washington, D.C.] Business Improvement District partnered with District police to launch [an] effort, which they call a 'real-time mobile-based group-messaging app that connects Georgetown businesses, police officers and community members.' Since then, the app has attracted nearly 380 users who surreptitiously report on -- and photograph -- shoppers in an attempt to deter crime.... The result, critics say..., has [laid] bare the racial fault lines that still define this cobblestoned enclave of tony boutiques and historic rowhouses that is home to many of Washington's elite." What a surprise: it seems the vast majority of "suspicious" shoppers are black.

Beyond the Beltway

Dennis Overbye of the New York Times: "Geoffrey Marcy, the renowned astronomer who was found guilty of sexually harassing students in a campus investigation, is resigning from the faculty of the University of California, Berkeley, where he has been a professor for 16 years.... The university placed Dr. Marcy on probation over the summer after the investigation but did not announce the decision. It became widely known only last week, when BuzzFeed News reported it." ...

... The BuzzFeed story, by Azeen Ghorayshi, is here.: "After a six-month investigation, Geoff Marcy -- a professor at the University of California, Berkeley, who has been mentioned as a potential Nobel laureate -- was found to have violated campus sexual harassment policies between 2001 and 2010. Four women alleged that Marcy repeatedly engaged in inappropriate physical behavior with students, including unwanted massages, kisses, and groping."

Jogging While Black in Talladega, Alabama.

Julie Bosman: The Kansas Secetary of state, [the execrable] Kris Kobach, has set up another barrier to voting, requiring them to provide proof of citizenship within 90 days of trying to register to vote. It disproportionately affects young people. ...

... CW: How upset would you be if resident noncitizen adults were actually allowed to vote? Besides living here, most of them work, many own homes, & virtually all pay taxes here & have a stake in their communities. I don't think they have an "inalienable right" to vote, but if my state allowed noncitizens to vote, I would have no objection whatsoever. Were I a legislator, I would vote for a bill allowing noncitizen residents to vote.

... Today in Responsible Gun Ammo Ownership. So this guy in Missouri sets a trash fire in an open field. Then he lets the fire get out of control. Then he tries to put it out by repeatedly driving over the burning area with his truck. (Bet you never thought of that.) Then for some reason the truck's tires catch on fire. Then he thinks, "Wow! I've got a full tank of gas & a truckload of ammo in the back. I wonder what could happen next." In his first lucid moment of the day, he abandons the truck before ammo started exploding. No one was injured. Remember when you were a kid & you thought grown men knew what they were doing?

Tom Benning of the Dallas Morning News: State "Rep. Jason Villalba (R) is standing by a Tweet he made during Tuesday's Democratic debate that included an image connecting presidential hopeful Bernie Sanders' standing as a 'Democratic socialist' to Nazism." The Nazi party referred National Socialists, not Democratic socialists. CW: But, hey, close. Why not tweet it out? And there's nothing slightly offensive about calling a Jew a Nazi, although in fairness, Villalba may not be well-enough informed to know Sanders is Jewish. Also too, doesn't this sound ridiculous: "I stand by my tweet"?

News Ledes

Thursday, October 15, 2015.

Click on map to see larger image.

... NOAA: "Forecasters at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued the U.S. Winter Outlook today favoring cooler and wetter weather in Southern Tier states with above-average temperatures most likely in the West and across the Northern Tier. This year's El Niño, among the strongest on record, is expected to influence weather and climate patterns this winter by impacting the position of the Pacific jet stream."

New York Times: Germany's automobile regulator on Thursday ordered Volkswagen to recall 2.4 million vehicles with diesel motors carrying software intended to manipulate emissions test results."

The Commentariat -- October 14, 2015

Internal links removed.

Michael Barbaro & Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Hillary Rodham Clinton, seeking to halt the momentum of her insurgent challenger, Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont, aggressively questioned his values, positions and voting history in the first Democratic presidential debate on Tuesday night, turning a showdown that had been expected to scrutinize her character into a forceful critique of his record." ...

Dan Balz & Anne Gearan of the Washington Post: "Hillary Rodham Clinton and Bernie Sanders clashed ... Tuesday night over national security, the economy, big banks and gun-control policy in a spirited but largely civil debate that underscored competing approaches to helping the middle class and leading the country." ...

... The Washington Post has a transcript of the debate here. ...

... The Guardian's summary (at 5:15 am) is helpful. ...

... New York "Times reporters will provide instant analysis and fact-checking during the debate. Coverage begins at 8:30 p.m. Follow along on your phone or computer at nytimes.com, facebook.com/nytpolitics and @NYTPolitics. Follow along during the day." (Also linked yesterday.) ...

Glenn Kessler & Michelle Lee of the Washington Post fact-check the candidates. Mostly quibbles about statistics, but a few substantive phony claims. ...

     (... CW: I am somewhat exercised about Clinton's blithe claim that Ed Snowden could have just gone the whistleblower route. Besides the legal issue Kessler covered here, I don't see what good it would have done for Snowden to alert Congress or an inspector general. A number of members of Congress already knew a good part of what Snowden leaked, but they never shared with the public the information Snowden revealed, information I think the public had a right to know & the government had an obligation to fix. Nor did they accomplish reforms to rein in the NSA. No, I'm no fan of Snowden's; I think he went overboard & was grossly incautious. But a large portion of what news media have published was surely in the public interest.)

... Dana Milbank writes what is probably the Villagers' collective assessment of the debate performances: "Hillary Clinton was a head shorter than her rivals when they lined up on stage.... But after that moment, she towered over them. Former Maryland governor Martin O'Malley was preachy and self-righteous. Former Virginia senator Jim Webb kept complaining that he wasn't getting enough time to talk. Former Rhode Island governor Lincoln Chafee was more quirky spectator than participant. And Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont shouted as if he were unaware that he had a microphone." What say you? ...

... Jonathan Chait: "Clinton demonstrated that she was, by far, the best presidential candidate on stage.... She is not great at politics, as even many of her supporters concede. (Earlier today, Glenn Thrush and Annie Karni reported, 'Nearly every one of 50 advisers, donors, Democratic operatives and friends we interviewed for this story thought Clinton was a mediocre candidate who would make a good president....') But she is not as awful at it as she has appeared for most of 2015. After the debate, she again resembles what she appeared to be at the campaign's outset: the all-but-certain Democratic nominee." ...

... Rebecca Traister of New York: "[Sanders] gave [Clinton] the night's biggest Valentine, with his declaration that 'The American people are sick and tired of hearing about your damn emails,' but she responded in kind, with genuine gratitude and a warm smile. The truth is, Sanders has offered Clinton -- and Democrats -- a million gifts so far this season. Among the most valid fears was that Hillary's candidacy would go unchallenged, would proceed as a coronation." ...

... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "Clinton didn't have the passion of Sanders or the poetry of O'Malley's sign-off, but she had something else: the self-confidence and killer instinct of a politician who has been down this route before." ...

... D. D. Guttenplan of the Nation: "... over the course of the night [Sanders'] answers ... revealed the fundamental difference between his approach and Clinton's. Although she described herself as 'a progressive,' Clinton typifies all that is good -- and bad -- about Democratic liberalism. She wants to tinker, and tweak, and make the system fairer. Sanders wants to tear it down, and to do that he really will need a movement, not just a mobilization." ...

... Eric Holthaus points out that Hillary Clinton is not going to be the "Environment President." ...

... Gabriel Sherman of New York: "Unfortunately for [Vice President] Biden, Hillary Clinton's adult performance just made it a lot harder for him to take a seat at the table.... And, if she aces next week's Benghazi hearing on Capitol Hill -- and many Democrats I spoke to expect she will -- then she would have effectively eliminated any remaining arguments for a Biden run. Unless, of course, the ongoing FBI investigation into the security of her email server ends in a bombshell that instantly blows open the door. But for now, Biden looks left out in the cold." ...

... Edward-Issac Dovere of Politico: "Now, Biden's orbit has put out word that he's going to take another week to make a decision -- right up against Clinton's appearance in front of the Benghazi Committee that once seemed like it could become an embarrassing inquisition, but that she's now already framing a tedious partisan fishing expedition." ...

     ... CW: It's probably worth noting that Clinton, et al., had no trouble dispatching Biden in 2008. He dropped out of the race January 3, after getting less than one percent of the Iowa caucus vote. I really can't see any big advantage Biden has over Clinton, other than "his name isn't Clinton." ...

... Seth Stevenson of Slate critiques Donald Trump's critique of the debate: "It's like Trump thinks the election is American Idol, and he's somehow both Kelly Clarkson and Simon Cowell at the same time." Humorous. And true: Trump does see the election as "American Idol." ...

Carrie Dann of NBC News: Donald Trump "will host NBC's 'Saturday Night Live' on November 7, the show announced Tuesday." ...

     ... CW: I can't be sure, but I'd say Shep Smith does not think this is a good idea:

Andy Borowitz: "The Democrats who participated in the first Democratic Presidential debate of the 2016 campaign garnered a scathing review from the retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, who said that none of them offered a concrete plan to protect the Earth from an invasion of bloodthirsty alien dragons." ...

... CW: Actually, Andy, what Doc Sleepy might have said is that "none of them offered a concrete plan to forestall the End of Days." And, no, this is not satire. ...

... GOP Voters Opt for the Crazy. Nick Gass of Politico: "Ben Carson is drawing ever closer to Donald Trump among likely Republican primary voters, according to the results of the latest Fox News poll released Tuesday evening. The retired Johns Hopkins neurosurgeon took 23 percent to Trump's 24 percent, followed by 10 percent for Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, 9 percent for Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, 8 percent for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, 5 percent each for Carly Fiorina and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee and 3 percent for Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul. Other candidates earned 1 percent or less, with 7 percent undecided."

** Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker on how the partisan Benghaaazi! committee walked away from an opportunity to highlight President Obama & Secretary Clinton's failure to plan for post-Qaddafi Libya in the same way President Bush had no plan for post-Saddam Iraq. ...

... CW: Here's what we know after decades of misadventures in the Middle East: (1) After deposing a dictator or quasi-dictator, Western micro-management of the "transition" doesn't work. (2) After deposing a dictator or quasi-dictator, leaving the locals to their own devices doesn't work.

David Crary of the AP: "Responding to a furor over undercover videos, Planned Parenthood said Tuesday that it would no longer accept payments to cover the costs of the programs that make fetal tissue available for research.... Planned Parenthood said the videos were deceptively edited and denied seeking any payments beyond legally permitted reimbursement of costs. The new policy -- forgoing even permissible reimbursement -- was outlined in a letter sent Tuesday by Planned Parenthood's president, Cecile Richards, to Dr. Francis S. Collins, the director of the National Institutes of Health." ...

... CW: This is pretty sad. I'm extremely sorry Planned Parenthood succumbed to Republican intimidation. The governmental body that authorized reimbursement is the very one that bludgeoned Planned Parenthood to forego it. Their costs of maintaining & transferring the tissue will mean less money to provide other reproductive services. ...

     ... Update: See Victoria D.'s comment below.

Mujib Mashal of the New York Times: In Afghanistan, ISIS is peeling off Taliban, often by paying bonuses to out-of-work young men. "In a series of quick strikes, the Islamic State fighters began driving out local Taliban units, and officials say the splinter group now has a clear foothold across several districts in eastern Nangarhar Province, in rugged terrain on the border with Pakistan that had long been mostly out of government control. The fighters may mostly be former Taliban, but they appear to have wholeheartedly taken up the calculated cruelty that the Islamic State has become known for, consolidating their hold with a brutality that has been shocking even by the standards of the Afghan insurgency." CW: Ceaseless war. From horrible to worse.

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

It isn't only Donald Trump who treats the presidential race like a season of "American Idol." Paul Krugman: "The commentariat seems to have turned on a dime. After trashing Hillary Clinton nonstop, they're all talking her up. And you can see why, given the revelations that (a) the whole Benghazi thing, including the email obsession, was a partisan witch hunt and (b) Clinton herself is smart, articulate, and has a good sense of humor. But the odd thing about these revelations is that they weren't at all revelatory... Anyway, it's quite sad that after all these years political coverage still treats the momentous issue of who will lead the world's most powerful nation like a high school popularity contest."

Dan Merica & Sunlen Serfaty of CNN demonstrate how to profile a candidate's spouse. Rule 1: Don't say anything about her. Rebecca Traister: "The profile is a decent length -- more than 900 words. Here's how many of those words are devoted to describing anything about Jane Sanders that is not related to how she met, reflects, works with, believes in, helps, or otherwise bolsters her husband: 25. I'm actually being generous here because I counted their mention that she was 'born in Brooklyn' even though that seems to have only been included because her birthplace was 'a few blocks from the man who would be her future husband.'" ...

... Here's a CNN segment where we learn Jane is Bernie's "secret weapon." ...

... CW: Best argument I can think of for Hillary for President. The press has already taken a bit of interest in her spouse. Maybe because he isn't a wife. Please don't think that discrimination against women is limited to curtailing reproductive rights, job discrimination, lesser pay, etc. The authors of this "profile" are young people. One might hope -- since they grew up in an era when becoming a wife no longer meant legally ceasing to be a woman with individual rights -- they would recognize that the candidate's wife is an actual person. But no.

Beyond the Beltway

Erik Eckholm of the New York Times: "A jury late Tuesday awarded more than $5 million in damages to two police officers who were severely wounded with a pistol that a local gun shop sold to a straw buyer in 2009."

News Ledes

New York Times: "A Scottish nurse who seemed to recover from Ebola 10 months ago has been rehospitalized and is now critically ill, the Royal Free Hospital in London reported Wednesday. Scientists have long known that the Ebola virus can persist for months in certain tissues of the body that are relatively protected from the immune system, including the eyes and the testes."

Washington Post: "Thousands of Israeli soldiers and border police fanned out across major cities and security forces began to erect checkpoints to close off Arab neighborhoods in Jerusalem on Wednesday to stem a wave of Palestinian attacks against Israelis. Military officials say the use of hundreds of Israeli soldiers along highways and in residential areas is the first such deployment in more than a decade, since the second Palestinian uprising, or intifada, in the early 2000s."

The Commentariat -- October 13, 2015

Internal links removed.

Jennifer Steinhauer: Influential far-right pundits say Paul Ryan is "too far left." Meaning he opposes shutting down the government until we reinstate the original Constitution, with no Amendments except the Second & Tenth. ...

... Kerry Eleveld of Daily Kos on why Ryan won't be speaker.: he has demands, the Krazee Kaucus has demands, & never the twain shall meet. ...

... Burgess Everett of Politico: "Sen. Tom Cotton [RTP-Ark.] told us in an interview that with all the instability in the House leadership, it's time to turn to the former vice president [Dick Cheney]. 'Look, these are trying times for our nation. It's important to have a steady hand on the helm during times like this. I think experience really counts in a matter like this. I think House leadership experience really matters. And as you know the speaker doesn't have to be a member of the House: So therefore, Vice President Cheney for speaker.' [Seung Min Kim] and I asked if he was serious, and Cotton replied: 'He's a man of the House, he says that himself.'" ...

... CW: Of course I ignored Mark Halperin's latest prognostications, but Ed Kilgore takes on the drama queen. There are two great dramas! But they're like one! The fate of the world lies in Joe Biden's & Paul Ryan's hands! I'll be writing a book about it! (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Josh Gerstein of Politico: "A federal court deadline Tuesday will be a pivotal turning point in [Denny Hastert's] felony case, signaling whether the former House speaker will plead guilty to a deal that has been under negotiation since at least late September with the U.S. Attorney's Office in Chicago." CW: Another reminder of what a corrupt gang of hacks & criminals has led the House GOP for generations now. Also, I believe most turning points are pivotal & most pivots are turning points.

Jeremy Diamond & Jake Tapper of CNN: "The attorneys for a former investigator with the House Select Committee on Benghazi on Monday issued a cease-and-desist letter alleging that Republican Committee Chairman Trey Gowdy violated confidentiality terms of a mediation between the parties.... Discussions that are part of the mandatory 30-day mediation between Podliska and the committee are confidential under the Congressional Accountability Act.... Gowdy in a statement on Sunday said that Podliska had 'demanded money from the Committee,' that 'the Committee has refused to pay him....'... When asked about the mediation in his interview with CNN, [former staffer Bradley] Podlaski demurred: 'I can't comment on the mediation process, unfortunately.'"

Laurel Sweet of the Boston Herald: "Former Vietnam POW and U.S. Sen. John McCain tells the Herald he’ll call a hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee if 
accused Army deserter Sgt. Bowe Bergdahl is allowed to avoid prison -- a potential power play Bergdahl's attorney calls 'unlawful' and 'deeply disturbing.' 'If it comes out that he has no punishment, we're going to have to have a hearing in the Senate Armed Services Committee,' said McCain, who chairs the committee. 'And I am not prejudging, OK, but it is well known that in the searches for Bergdahl, after -- we know now -- he deserted, there are allegations that some American soldiers were killed or wounded, or at the very least put their lives in danger, searching for what is clearly a deserter. We need to have a hearing on that.'"

President Obama & writer Marilynne Robinson have a conversation in Iowa.

Adam Goldman of the Washington Post: "Two former CIA prisoners and the family of another detainee who froze to death at a secret prison in Afghanistan have sued the architects of the spy agency's detention and interrogation program. The lawsuit was filed Tuesday in federal court in Spokane, Wash., against James Mitchell and Bruce Jessen, a pair of psychologists who earned millions using untested, brutal techniques, such as waterboarding, on CIA prisoners. The suit alleges that the CIA tortured Suleiman Abdullah Salim and Mohamed Ahmed Ben Soud at a black site dubbed Salt Pit, exposing them to a regime that the psychologists had developed.... The suit also says that the CIA kidnapped and killed Gul Rahman, an Afghan citizen who died of hypothermia in November 2002 at Salt Pit.... The American Civil Liberties Union, which filed the suit on behalf of the other former detainees, said the psychologists conspired with the CIA to torture the three men and committed war crimes."

Maj. Lisa Jaster, during Ranger training. Army photo.Dan Lamothe of the Washington Post: "On Monday, the Army announced that [Maj. Lisa] Jaster, 37, has become the third woman to ever complete the [Army] Ranger School course. She will join Capt. Kristen Griest, 26, and 1st Lt. Shaye Haver, 25, who earned the Ranger tab on Aug. 21. Jaster will join 87 men in receiving the coveted decoration in a ceremony at Fort Benning on Friday."

Brian Fung of the Washington Post: "Twitter announced a series of job cuts Tuesday that will trim its workforce worldwide by 336 employees, or about eight percent, according to a company regulatory filing." CW: Nobody has done more for Twitter than Donald Trump. (See highlighted entry under Presidential Race, for instance.) And yet. And yet. It looks like Trump won't be able to keep his campaign announcement promise that "I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created."

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd.

"Paul Ryan Seems to Be Prioritizing His Family. That's Unusual for a Male Lawmaker." So says the top online headline in this morning's Washington Post. If that doesn't convince you that Paul Ryan is the absolutely sweetest family man in the history of Congress, the editors throw into the story a 2012 shot of the then-GOP veep candidate at a soup kitchen washing dishes with his family. What the Post doesn't tell you is that those dishes were already clean. (Hope that watch he's wearing is waterproof. Oh, no water in the sink. All good.) Res ipsa loquitur.

Charles Pierce: Somehow the oligarchy that has taken over the country never comes up on the Sunday showz. CW: It would appear that Pierce did not get up early enough to see Anthony Mason on CBS's "Sunday Morning" kissing the ring on top oligarch Charles Koch, wherein Mason & crew allowed Koch to "come across as avuncular, sincere, and high-minded, a sweet, patriotic old man," according to Akhilleus. (See today's comments.) Somehow, both-sides-do-itism never takes account of us-v.-them. Only "them" gets a hearing. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Presidential Race

Eugene Scott of CNN: "Hillary Clinton will be center stage on Tuesday night for the Democratic presidential candidates' first debate, according to the podium order released by CNN, which is hosting the event. The position of the five candidates on the stage at the CNN Facebook Democratic Debate in Las Vegas is based on polls since Aug. 1 and was announced on CNN's 'State of the Union.'" Also, we'll find a podium for you, Joe Biden, if you stop by. ...

... CW: If, like me, you can't watch the debate on the teevee, you can watch it on CNN's livestreaming channel. BUT only if you have access thru a cable or dish. ...

... New York "Times reporters will provide instant analysis and fact-checking during the debate. Coverage begins at 8:30 p.m. Follow along on your phone or computer at nytimes.com, facebook.com/nytpolitics and @NYTPolitics. Follow along during the day." ...

... The Mainstream Party. Greg Sargent: "... broadly speaking, most of the positions that you'll hear from likely Dem nominee Clinton (and some from Sanders, as well) tonight will not threaten to be a liability in the general election.... The two parties' primary processes seem fundamentally different. The GOP primary has resulted in the GOP candidates embracing positions such as huge tax cuts for the rich, defunding Planned Parenthood, and mass deportations/ending birthright citizenship.... These positions probably will be liabilities in the general election. By contrast, many of the positions Dems end up taking during their primary probably won't be liabilities in the general election. We'll see if this basic imbalance is registered in the coverage." ...

... Philip Rucker of the Washington Post: "Democrats expect the debate to be substantive and to set the course for an unexpectedly contentious nominating contest. Americans are either going to find a pleasing contrast to the rip-roaring show Republicans have put on -- or they're going to be bored senseless." ...

... Brian Beutler of the New Republic: "It isn't wrong or biased to say that Democrats make comparatively boring television. But that isn't a strike against Democrats, either. It's a reflection of the fact that the Republican Party, unlike the Democratic Party, is dominated by reactionary voters, which makes its candidates prone to saying or doing outrageous things out of a sense of necessity." ...

     ... CW: Debbie should have let Larry Lessig participate in the debate. He's the closest Democrats can come to the Ben Carson genre of candidate. He's not a career politician! He's very accomplished in his field! AND he has a bizarre plan! ...

... Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: "Over the weekend, some of [CNN]'s reporters revealed cheeky plans to expand the debate, if needed: A clean, bubble-wrapped podium reserved for Vice President Joe Biden, should he decide to enter the race even one minute before the faceoff. If Biden doesn't run, the podium will go unused. That may be the greatest indignity yet visited upon Larry Lessig, the Harvard academic and anti-corruption scholar who announced a crowd-funded presidential bid last month. As of now, he's running. Biden isn't." ...

... ** Bill Curry of Salon discusses the Democratic debates, the first of which will take place this evening.

Joe the Reluctant. Maggie Haberman & Peter Baker of the New York Times: "Mr. Biden initially said he would decide by the end of summer [whether or not he would run for president]. Now aides are researching filing deadlines to see if he can keep his options open into November."

At the request of many, and even though I expect it to be a very boring two hours, I will be covering the Democrat debate live on twitter! -- Donald Trump

... Don't count yourself as a political junkie if all you do today is read a few Reality Chex links & tune into the Democratic debate while you're washing your socks following the Donald on Twitter. A real American political junkie would be spending the entire day with Rand Paul, then watching the debate with him.

Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Sen. Bernie Sanders got his second congressional endorsement on Monday, from Rep. Keith Ellison."

Jack Gillum & Stephen Braun of the AP: "The private email server running in Hillary Rodham Clinton's home basement when she was secretary of state was connected to the Internet in ways that made it more vulnerable to hackers, according to data and documents reviewed by The Associated Press.... The findings suggest Clinton's server 'violates the most basic network-perimeter security tenets: Don't expose insecure services to the Internet,' said Justin Harvey, the chief security officer for Fidelis Cybersecurity."

The Unhinged Candidate. CBN: "Russian leader Vladimir Putin has been tied to controversial Mideast Muslim leaders since the time they attended school in Moscow, according to Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson. Carson raised the little known historical fact during his guest appearance on CBN's The 700 Club Friday. Carson said Putin shares a deep historical tie with Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and Palestinian Authority leader Mahmoud Abbas, suggesting he became acquainted with them during their college days in Moscow when Putin was a young KGB operative." ...

... Steve Benen: "The trouble is, it's little known because it's not a historical fact. There's literally no evidence to suggest Khamenei ever studied in the former Soviet Union. And since he and Abbas are several years older than Putin, the timeline doesn't even make sense.... 'In a follow-up interview, Dr. Carson would not disclose his sources, but told CBN News he learned about the ties between the three leaders from advisors across the government, including the CIA.'... Not to put too fine a point on this, but we're delving deep into crackpot waters at this point. An unhinged presidential candidate, citing clandestine sources that probably do not exist, is now describing a decades-old relationship between foreign leaders that also does not appear to exist. All of this comes on the heels of increasingly alarming claims that Carson appears to have invented out of whole cloth." ...

... AND he's been making this claim quite a lot lately. Louis Jacobson of PolitiFact checked it out: "This is one of the more bizarre claims we've heard so far in the 2016 presidential campaign, and that's saying something." In an update, PolitiFact went after Carson's "sources"; i.e., his CBN claim that he "learned about the ties between the three leaders from advisors across the government, including the CIA." This clashes with the earlier suggestion by Carson's press staff to PolitiFact that the evidence for the claim could be found by 'Googling.'" CW: Maybe the CIA contacts him through secret signs that pop up on his iPad. ...

... CW: Most surprising part: Carson did not reveal the little known historical fact that Obama was in the same Moscow classroom with Putin, Khamenei & Abbas. Guess he's saving that for later. ...

... Benen asks, "Is there a point at which the political world has a conversation about whether Carson is grounded enough to be seen as a credible candidate for public office? Is it fair to say we've reached that point now?" ...

... Apparently Not. Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "For a long time, Ben Carson's campaign team feared that his habit of inflammatory remarks would sink his presidential hopes. They sent him to media training in Texas. The candidate pledged to police his words. But ever since Mr. Carson said on Sept. 20 that he did not think a Muslim should be president, then refused to retract the statement amid a furious reaction, his campaign has watched grass-roots support grow and donations pour in [[ and advisers have backtracked, deciding, in the words of one, to 'let Carson be Carson.'" CW: "Inflammatory remarks"? How about batshit crazy? ...

... At least Gene Robinson gets it right: "The craziest thing about the Republican presidential contest isn't that Donald Trump is in the lead. It's that Dr. Ben Carson -- who truly seems to have lost his mind -- is in second place and gaining fast. Trump may be a blowhard, but Carson has proved himself to be a crackpot of the first order. Of all the GOP contenders, he's the scariest."

Tierney Sneed of TPM: "After a relatively staid speech about some of Donald Trump's favorite subjects -- dissing President Obama, boycotting Oreos and building ice rinks -- the GOP frontrunner's appearance at the centrist No Labels convention went predictably off the rails when the floor was opened up for questions.... Attendees grilled Trump about the Tea Party and on whether he was a friend to women. Trump also asked a questioner wearing a Harvard shirt who asked about South Korea if he was South Korean. The young man was born in Texas." You can watch Trump insulting audience members here.

Jonathan Cohn of the Huffington Post: "Jeb Bush on Tuesday will introduce a plan to repeal and replace the Affordable Care Act. But 'replace' may not be quite the right word.... Jeb's Obamacare Repeal-And-Replace Plan Is More Repeal Than Replace. Conservatives will love it. But careful if you actually get sick."

When Bullies Collide. "Chris Christie Fully Prepared to Start WWIII." Caroline Bankoff of New York: "In an MSNBC interview in which he referred to President Obama as 'this weakling in the White House,' Christie imagined himself taking a hard line with President Vladimir Putin (or just plain old 'Vladimir,' as Christie seems to call him). 'My first phone call would be to Vladimir, and I'd say, "Listen, we're enforcing this no-fly zone. And I mean we're enforcing it against anyone, including you,'" he said. 'So don't try me. Don't try me. Because I'll do it.'" CW: Chris will be as tough on Vlad as he is on kindergarten teachers.

Beyond the Beltway

Erik Eckholm of the New York Times: A Milwaukee civil suit puts a gun store owner on trial for allowing an obviously illegal sale of a gun used a month later to seriously wound two police officers. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Welcome Back, Poacher. Norimitsu Onishi of the New York Times: "Just this summer, Zimbabwe was pressing to extradite an American dentist involved in the hunt that killed a lion known as Cecil, with the environment minister denouncing him as a 'foreign poacher' who had absconded home. On Monday, it changed course, saying not only that the dentist would not be charged but that he was welcome to return."

Sarah's mother took the photo. "'I know the face that I'm giving my mom was the "Really, mom? Right now you're taking a picture?"' she said.

... Your Feel-Good Story of the Day. Char Adams of People: "Sarah Ray, a paramedic from Tennessee, went well above the call of duty when she rushed to respond to a car crash on her wedding day.... Just minutes after she tied the knot with her husband, Paul, on Oct. 3, Ray received a call that her grandparents and father got into a car accident on their way to her reception. So, the bride and groom, both paramedics, sprung into action.

News Ledes

Washington Post: "The Taliban announced Tuesday that it is withdrawing from the key northern Afghan city of Kunduz, the site of its first significant military gain since the militants were driven from power in late 2001."

New York Times: "Four attacks by Palestinians in Jerusalem and a city 40 miles away killed three Israeli Jews and wounded at least a dozen others in two hours on Tuesday morning, the police said, the most intense eruption so far in two weeks of escalating violence that has alarmed Israel and flummoxed its security forces.... Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel called an emergency meeting of top security officials and ministers for Tuesday afternoon. A police spokeswoman said the steps to be considered included a complete closing of Jerusalem's Arab neighborhoods...." ...

... CW News Flash: Flummoxed? Really? When you repress people, they're usually not happy about it. The solution you-all have come up with -- repress them some more -- seems to have flaw.

New York Times: "A 15-month inquiry into the disintegration of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 in the skies over eastern Ukraine has concluded that the aircraft was most likely attacked from the ground by a Russian-made missile, Dutch air accident investigators said on Tuesday."

Washington Post: "The battle over the relocation of a United States Marine Corps base on the Japanese island of Okinawa escalated Tuesday when Okinawa's governor revoked a permit for the new construction site. The central government in Tokyo vowed to fight the governor's decision, but Tuesday's action marked the latest in a series of complications that has bedeviled the U.S. military's efforts to build a new base on Okinawa."