The Ledes

Thursday, September 19, 2024

New York Times: “A body believed to be of the suspect in a Kentucky highway shooting that left five people seriously injured this month was found on Wednesday, the authorities said, ending a manhunt that stretched into a second week and set the local community on edge. The Kentucky State Police commissioner, Phillip Burnett Jr., said in a Wednesday night news conference that at approximately 3:30 p.m., two troopers and two civilians found an unidentified body in the brush behind the highway exit where the shooting occurred.... The police have identified the suspect of the shooting as Joseph A. Couch, 32. They said that on Sept. 7, Mr. Couch perched on a cliff overlooking Interstate 75 about eight miles north of London, Ky., and opened fire. One of the wounded was shot in the face, and another was shot in the chest. A dozen vehicles were riddled with gunfire.”

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The New York Times lists Emmy winners. The AP has an overview story here.

New York Times: “Hvaldimir, a beluga whale who had captured the public’s imagination since 2019 after he was spotted wearing a harness seemingly designed for a camera, was found dead on Saturday in Norway, according to a nonprofit that worked to protect the whale.... [Hvaldimir] was wearing a harness that identified it as “equipment” from St. Petersburg. There also appeared to be a camera mount. Some wondered if the whale was on a Russian reconnaissance mission. Russia has never claimed ownership of the whale. If Hvaldimir was a spy, he was an exceptionally friendly one. The whale showed signs of domestication, and was comfortable around people. He remained in busier waters than are typical for belugas....” ~~~

     ~~~ Marie: Oh, Lord, do not let Bobby Kennedy, Jr., near that carcass. ~~~

     ~~~ AP Update: “There’s no evidence that a well-known beluga whale that lived off Norway’s coast and whose harness ignited speculation it was a Russian spy was shot to death last month as claimed by animal rights groups, Norwegian police said Monday.... Police said that the Norwegian Veterinary Institute conducted a preliminary autopsy on the animal, which was become known as 'Hvaldimir,' combining the Norwegian word for whale — hval — and the first name of Russian President Vladimir Putin. 'There are no findings from the autopsy that indicate that Hvaldimir has been shot,' police said in a statement.”

New York Times: Botswana's “President Mokgweetsi Masisi grinned as he lifted the diamond, a 2,492-carat stone that is the biggest diamond unearthed in more than a century and the second-largest ever found, according to the Vancouver-based mining operator Lucara, which owns the mine where it was found. This exceptional discovery could bring back the luster of the natural diamond mining industry, mining companies and experts say. The diamond was discovered in the same relatively small mine in northeastern Botswana that has produced several of the largest such stones in living memory. Such gemstones typically surface as a result of volcanic activity.... The diamond will likely sell in the range of tens of millions of dollars....”

Click on photo to enlarge.

~~~ Guardian: "On a distant reef 16,000km from Paris, surfer Gabriel Medina has given Olympic viewers one of the most memorable images of the Games yet, with an airborne celebration so well poised it looked too good to be true. The Brazilian took off a thundering wave at Teahupo’o in Tahiti on Monday, emerging from a barrelling section before soaring into the air and appearing to settle on a Pacific cloud, pointing to the sky with biblical serenity, his movements mirrored precisely by his surfboard. The shot was taken by Agence France-Presse photographer Jérôme Brouillet, who said “the conditions were perfect, the waves were taller than we expected”. He took the photo while aboard a boat nearby, capturing the surreal image with such accuracy that at first some suspected Photoshop or AI." 

Washington Post: “'Mary Cassatt at Work' is a large and mostly satisfying exhibition devoted to the career of the great American artist beloved for her sensitive and often sentimental views of family life. The 'at work' in the title of the Philadelphia Museum of Art show references the curators’ interest in Cassatt’s pioneering effort to establish herself as a professional artist within a male-dominated field. Throughout the show, which includes some 130 paintings, pastels, prints and drawings, the wall text and the art on view stresses Cassatt’s fixation on art as a career rather than a pastime.... Mary Cassatt at Work is on view at the Philadelphia Museum of Art through Sept. 8. philamuseum.org

New York Times: “Bob Newhart, who died on Thursday at the age of 94, has been such a beloved giant of popular culture for so long that it’s easy to forget how unlikely it was that he became one of the founding fathers of stand-up comedy. Before basically inventing the hit stand-up special, with the 1960 Grammy-winning album 'The Button-Down Mind of Bob Newhart' — that doesn’t even count his pay-per-view event broadcast on Canadian television that some cite as the first filmed special — he was a soft-spoken accountant who had never done a set in a nightclub. That he made a classic with so little preparation is one of the great miracles in the history of comedy.... Bob Newhart holds up. In fact, it’s hard to think of a stand-up from that era who is a better argument against the commonplace idea that comedy does not age well.”

Washington Post: “An early Titian masterpiece — once looted by Napolean’s troops and a part of royal collections for centuries — caused a stir when it was stolen from the home of a British marquess in 1995. Seven years later, it was found inside an unassuming white and blue plastic bag at a bus stop in southwest London by an art detective, and returned. This week, the oil painting 'The Rest on the Flight into Egypt' sold for more than $22 million at Christie’s. It was a record for the Renaissance artist, whom museums describe as the greatest painter of 16th-century Venice. Ahead of the sale in April, the auction house billed it as 'the most important work by Titian to come to the auction market in more than a generation.'”

Washington Post: The Folger Shakespeare Library in Washington, D.C., which houses the world's largest collection of Shakespeare material, has undergone a major renovation. "The change to the building is pervasive, both subtle and transformational."

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Publisher & Editor: Marie Burns


Sunday
Oct232016

When You Don't Get the "Joke"

Jokes depend upon subtext. When you "get" the joke, it's because you know the subtext. Jokes are funny because the subtext both gives the joke its meaning & creates a momentary bond between teller & hearer. For instance, when Hillary Clinton said at the Al Smith dinner last week, "Usually, I charge a lot for speeches like this," most hearers knew this was a joke at her own expense, and referred to speeches she made to Goldman Sachs & other big corporations and for which she was paid seemingly huge sums for what appeared to be, in each case, about an hour's work. The speeches became campaign issues in both the primary and general elections, particularly because Clinton would not release transcripts or tapes of her remarks. Clinton used fewer than ten words to spoof herself and her critics. We knew that backstory, so we got the joke. Ha ha.

Donald Trump told one "joke" at the dinner I just didn't get: "... here she is tonight — in public — trying to pretend she doesn’t hate Catholics.” Why would anybody even think that, much less say it? I wondered. Other than a few rabid StormTrumpers, who "hates Catholics"?

As Amy Davidson of the New Yorker writes, the excuse for that shocking remark was this: "Trump’s joke was about an e-mail in which Jennifer Palmieri, a Clinton aide who herself is Catholic, referred to Catholicism as 'the most socially acceptable politically conservative religion.' The Trumpian translation turned this into evidence that Clinton was a religious bigot — an anti-Catholic in a room full of Catholics." Mighty obscure, and scarcely a trope worthy of an insult directed at Clinton instead of Palmieri, but maybe that was it. It wasn't.

Near the end of the evening, Hillary Clinton, in what I assumed were more-or-less traditional remarks at Al Smith dinners, said,

And when I think about what Al Smith went through it’s important to just reflect how groundbreaking it was for him, a Catholic, to be my party’s nominee for president. Don’t forget – school boards sent home letters with children saying that if Al Smith is elected president you will not be allowed to have or read a Bible. Voters were told that he would annul Protestant marriages.

And I saw a story recently that said people even claimed the Holland Tunnel was a secret passageway to connect Rome and America, to help the Pope rule our country. Those appeals, appeals to fear and division, can cause us to treat each other as the Other. Rhetoric like that makes it harder for us to see each other, to respect each other, to listen to each other. And certainly a lot harder to love our neighbor as ourselves.

Okay, I thought, she was working Al Smith's misfortune into a criticism of Donald Trump and his whole campaign. Even so, it was quite appropriate, in context. But once again, I think I missed the subtext. 

Michael Daly of the Daily Beast reminded me: Donald Trump's father Fred "was arrested on Memorial Day in 1927 for participating in a Klu Klux Klan riot in his home borough of Queens. The riot was fueled in part by the prospect that Al Smith might become not just the Catholic governor of New York but the first Catholic president of the United States. 'Americans Assaulted by Roman Catholic Police of New York City' read KKK leaflets that went up in Queens the day after the arrest of Fred Trump and others."

In that tiny newspaper story, published nearly 90 years ago, lies Donald's "Rosebud." Religious, racial, ethnic, cultural and gender animus form the core of his twisted belief system. The views Fred Trump held in the 1920s explain why he and Donald didn't mind discriminating against blacks in their housing developments, even when they were operating under a consent decree; why Donald calls Mexicans rapists & criminals; why Donald thinks Americans of Hispanic descent are unfit to serve in high public office; why Donald would discriminate against Muslim men, women and children; why Donald would stereotype Jewish "folks"; why Donald would profile all people of color as part of his "law & order" platform; why Donald -- and his own sons -- would cultivate white supremacists; why Donald would see nothing wrong with getting into a fight with Pope Francis; why Donald would blithely suggest that his opponent "hates Catholics."

Donald Trump has run a hate campaign because hating others -- all others, no matter who -- is a family tradition. Hillary Clinton remarked on that at the Al Smith dinner. Maybe we didn't get it then, but we know it now.

Saturday
Oct222016

The Commentariat -- October 23, 2016

Presidential Race

Maurice Tamman of Reuters: "... Hillary Clinton maintained her commanding lead in the race to win the Electoral College and claim the U.S. presidency, according to the latest Reuters/Ipsos States of the Nation project results released on Saturday.... Clinton leads Donald Trump in most of the states that Trump would need should he have a chance to win the minimum 270 votes needed to win. According to the project, she has a better than 95 percent chance of winning, if the election was held this week. The mostly likely outcome would be 326 votes for Clinton to 212 for Trump." CW: This analysis is based on the same poll, also linked yesterday, that shows Trump cutting Clinton's national vote lead in half. ...

... Maurice Tamman: "Only half of Republicans would accept Clinton ... as their president. And if she wins, nearly 70 percent said it would be because of illegal voting or vote rigging, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Friday. Conversely, seven out of 10 Democrats said they would accept a Trump victory and less than 50 percent would attribute it to illegal voting or vote rigging, the poll showed." -- CW

Hope Yen of the AP: "Hillary Clinton appears to be displaying strength in the crucial battleground states of North Carolina and Florida among voters casting ballots before Election Day, and may also be building an early vote advantage in Arizona and Colorado. Donald Trump, meanwhile, appears to be holding ground in Ohio, Iowa and Georgia, according to data compiled by The Associated Press. Those are important states for Trump, but not sufficient for him to win the presidency if he loses states like Florida or North Carolina." -- CW

Shane Goldmacher of Politico: "Hillary Clinton is so over Donald Trump. Using some of her most dismissive language of the campaign, Clinton said aboard her campaign plane on Saturday that, 'I don't even think about responding to him anymore' after their third and final debate earlier this week. Leading in the polls both nationally and in battleground states, Clinton signaled that she and running mate Tim Kaine instead would be focused on making gains for congressional Democrats in the closing stretch of the campaign." -- CW ...

Pat Toomey heard Donald attack a grieving Gold Star family who lost their son in Iraq, he heard Donald called Mexican immigrants rapists, he heard him say terrible things about women, he heard him spread the lie that our first black president wasn't really born in America. Now how much more does Pat Toomey need to hear? If he doesn't have the courage to stand up to Donald Trump after all this, then can you be sure he'll stand up for you when it counts against powerful interests? -- Hillary Clinton, in Pittsburgh, Pa., Saturday, ragging on the state's Republican U.S. Senator ...

... Philip Rucker, et al., of the Washington Post: "Emboldened by polls predicting an electoral-college landslide in the presidential race, Clinton is shifting her strategy to lift up other Democrats coast to coast. She and her party are rushing to capitalize on a turbulent turn in Trump's candidacy, which has ruptured the Republican Party, to make down-ballot gains that seemed unlikely just a month ago." -- CW

Hillary's Latest Election-Rigging Scheme. Reid Wilson & Joe DiSipio of the Hill: "Hillary Clinton's presidential campaign has built a field team in swing-states across the country that is larger than a U.S. Army brigade, giving her a huge advantage over Republican Donald Trump on Election Day. Between Clinton's presidential campaign, the Democratic National Committee and state party operations, campaign finance reports show Democrats employ 5,138 staffers across 15 battleground states. Clinton is funding the army through tens of millions of dollars raised for state Democratic Parties across the country.... By contrast, Trump's campaign, the Republican National Committee and state parties employ just 1,409 staffers in 16 states. Lindsay Walters, an RNC spokeswoman, said the RNC has paid staffers in 24 states across the country. Trump's campaign has shown little interest in investing in a ground operation." -- CW

New Yorker Editors: "On November 8th, barring some astonishment, the people of the United States will, after two hundred and forty years, send a woman to the White House. The election of Hillary Clinton is an event that we will welcome for its immense historical importance, and greet with indescribable relief. It will be especially gratifying to have a woman as commander-in-chief after such a sickeningly sexist and racist campaign, one that exposed so starkly how far our society has to go. The vileness of her opponent's rhetoric and his record has been so widely aired that we can only hope she will be able to use her office and her impressive resolve to battle prejudice wherever it may be found." -- CW

** Michael Tomasky of the Daily Beast: "People ask why [Clinton is] winning, and the usual answer is that Trump is such a catastrophe. And he is, obviously. But I say she's winning mainly because she's one tough dame. She's made of steel. And not Trumpian Chinese steel. And even though she's going to face a wall of total resistance from Congress if she's president, I say history tells us not to sell this woman short.... Donald Trump, who lies when he says 'and' and 'the,' has said one true thing in these last 16 months. She is tough. Tougher than he is. And tougher than all the men who've tried to thwart her, and those about to attempt the job." ...

     ... CW: I do think that what Republicans/many men hate most about Hillary Clinton is that all her life she has been defying their image of the little woman who needs big, strong, manly men to protect her. Particularly in the chivalry-soaked South (ask Mark Twain!), many men depend upon this fiction to assert their patriarchal dominance. The very idea of women being in control, even of their own bodies, is anathema to these imaginary "protectors" of the weaker sex. The fact that Clinton herself s much tougher than the "broad-shouldered" (ask mike pence!), scatter-brained Trumpelthinskin makes them crazy.

Every woman lied when they came forward to hurt my campaign -- total fabrication. The events never happened. Never. All of these liars will be sued after the election is over. -- Donald Trump, attempting to emulate Abraham Lincoln ...

He actually called it 'hollowed ground.' -- digby ...

... Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump came to [Gettysburg's] historic battlefield town Saturday to offer his vision for America's future, saying he hoped to 'heal the divisions' of the country as President Lincoln tried to do here seven score and 13 years go. Yet in his own Gettysburg address Mr. Trump ... did not offer much in the way of race-changing oratory and did not seem to embrace Lincoln's unifying ambition. Instead, the Republican nominee used the first third of what had been promoted as a major new policy speech to nurse personal grievances, grumbling about 'the rigging of this election' and 'the dishonest mainstream media,' and threatening to sue the nearly dozen women who have come forward to accuse him of aggressive sexual advances." -- CW

Rosalind Helderman of the Washington Post: "An adult film actress on Saturday accused ... Donald Trump or someone acting on his behalf of offering her $10,000 and the use of his private jet if she would agree to come alone to his hotel suite at night after a golf tournament in Lake Tahoe in 2006. Jessica Drake, who spoke at a news conference alongside attorney Gloria Allred, said she met Trump while working a booth at the tournament for her employer, Wicked Pictures. Trump then invited her and two other women to his suite in the evening, where, while wearing pajamas, Drake said he kissed the women each in turn without their permission. According to Drake, after the group left his suite, a man called and asked her to return alone. When she declined, Drake said she was then called by Trump, who asked to her to come to his suite for dinner and a party. 'What do you want?' she said he asked. 'How much?' Later, she said Trump, or a man calling on his behalf, called again, this time with the monetary offer, which she said she declined.... At the news conference, Drake, which is the actress's stage name, held up a picture of her and Trump from the event and said she had told several friends about the proposition immediately after it occurred." -- CW

Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "The Pennsylvania Republican Party filed a complaint late Friday night asking a federal court to allow out-of-county poll watchers to monitor voting stations on Election Day. Filed on behalf of eight Keystone State voters, the suit alleges that state law restricting poll watchers to the county in which they're registered violates the First Amendment and denies them their right to equal protection under the law. Donald Trump has raised unfounded fears that the Nov. 8 election will be 'rigged' by illegitimate ballots cast by undocumented immigrants, people voting multiple times, and 'dead people.' All of them, he claims, will vote for Hillary Clinton. He has called on his supporters to go 'watch' voters in 'certain areas'..., directing them to communities with large black populations like Philadelphia and Chicago." Election-law expert Rick Hasen calls the First Amendment claim "exceptionally weak." -- CW

Daniel Politi of Slate: "The country's best known LGBT group that is affiliated with the Republican Party will not be endorsing Donald Trump for president. But the group made clear it is not withholding its endorsement because of Trump himself but rather because he 'surrounded himself with senior advisors with a record of opposing LGBT equality, and committed himself to supporting legislation such as the so-called "First Amendment Defense Act" that Log Cabin Republicans opposes.' It marks the first time the group has not endorsed the Republican candidate for president since 2004, when then-President George W. Bush was running and campaigned in favor of a Constitutional amendment to ban marriage equality. The group spends a lot of time in its non-endorsement to praise Trump's views." -- CW

Senate Races

Jennifer Steinhauer of the New York Times: "Surprisingly, Democrats have improved their [U.S. Senate] chances in places like Missouri and North Carolina, where they seemed to have no shot just six months ago, while they have all but given up in Ohio and pulled their money out of Florida, where prospects had seemed bright. Republicans continue to cling to hope in New Hampshire, Nevada and Pennsylvania, despite what looks like faltering support for Mr. Trump in those states.... [In Missouri, Democrat Jason] Kander has benefited from being a sui generis blend: At once, he is a gun-wielding Democrat, a veteran, a Georgetown-educated lawyer who wears the outsider label, and the opponent of an incumbent [Roy Blunt] who is the embodiment of Washington longevity." -- CW ...

... Harry Enten of 538: "Thanks to big shifts in several key races, Democrats now have a 73 percent chance of winning the Senate, according to the FiveThirtyEight polls-plus forecast, and a 72 percent chance according to polls-only. Both those numbers are up by more than 15 percentage points from last week, when the polls-plus model gave them a 56 percent chance and the polls-only model 54 percent." -- CW

Other News & Views

Capitalism is Awesome, Ctd. Can You See Me Now? Michael de la Merced of the New York Times: "AT&T has agreed to buy Time Warner for more than $80 billion..., a move that would create a new colossus in the worlds of media and telecommunications. The proposed transaction could be announced as soon as Saturday, barring last-minute changes.... Putting together AT&T, a sprawling video and internet empire that encompasses cellphone and cable service along with DirecTV, and Time Warner's media holdings, which include HBO, CNN and the movie studio Warner Bros., would create a formidable new player and potentially spur even more deals. In recent weeks, the family that controls CBS and Viacom has urged the two companies to consider a merger." -- CW ...

     ... Update: "AT&T ... agreed on Saturday to buy Time Warner, the home of HBO and CNN, for about $85.4 billion, creating a new colossus capable of both producing content and distributing it to millions with wireless phones, broadband subscriptions and satellite TV connections." ...

... Where Trump & Franken (Sort of) Agree. Margaret McGill & Tony Romm of Politico: The AT&T/Time Warner deal "is set to become a political battleground for the next U.S. president given the size and scope of the deal.... Already..., Donald Trump has excoriated the deal.... 'As an example of the power structure I'm fighting, AT&T is buying Time Warner and thus CNN, a deal we will not approve in my administration because it's too much concentration of power in the hands of too few,' Trump said in Gettysburg.... Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn), for one, said the acquisition 'raises some immediate flags about consolidation in the media market.' 'I'm skeptical of huge media mergers because they can lead to higher costs, fewer choices, and even worse service for consumers,' Franken said in a statement, promising to seek more details about the transaction." ...

     ... CW: Notice how Trump just declares that he will unilaterally cancel the merger (and while he's at it, other past media mergers). It's a lot more complicated than that, & in the end, the administrative agencies must get court approval. The rule of law is meaningless to Trump. His intention is to become a dictator.

Amy Wang of the Washington Post: "Jason C. Finan, a 34-year-old chief petty officer, is the first American killed in the current battle for Mosul, a military push to reclaim the city in northern Iraq from the Islamic State, the Defense Department announced Friday. Finan is survived by his wife, Chariss, and their 7-year-old son, of Imperial Beach, Calif., the San Diego Union-Tribune reported. The Pentagon said Finan died Thursday, after sustaining wounds in an improvised explosive device blast. He was supporting Operation Inherent Resolve in its fight against Islamic State militants in Iraq and Syria." -- CW

Paul Krugman: "There was a time, not long ago, when deficit scolds were actively dangerous -- when their huffing and puffing came quite close to stampeding Washington into really bad policies like raising the Medicare age (which wouldn't even have saved money) and short-term fiscal austerity. At this point their influence doesn't reach nearly that far. But they continue to play a malign role in our national discourse -- because they divert and distract attention from much more deserving problems.... You saw that in the [presidential] debates: four, count them, four questions about debt from the CRFB, not one about climate change. And you see it again in today's Times, with Pete Peterson (of course) and Paul Volcker (sigh) lecturing us about the usual stuff.... My message to the deficit scolds is this: yes, we may face some hard choices a couple of decades from now. But we might not, and in any case there aren't any choices that must be made now.... Your fear-mongering is distracting us from these real problems. Therefore, I would respectfully request that you people just go away." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Protesting GOP Vote-Rigging = "Race-Baiting." Dave Weigel of the Washington Post: After Republicans gerrymandered black North Carolinians into one long, squiggly district, they accused a good-government group of "race-baiting" for running an ad that highlights the state's effort -- approved by an elected state supreme court judge -- to segregate black voters into one district. "Reporting on the map, however, backs up the ad-makers. This summer, ruling in Covington v. North Carolina, U.S. Court of Appeals Judge James A. Wynn, Jr. wrote that Democrats were correct to challenge 28 districts that had packed in black and liberal voters, thereby creating a larger number of safe districts for Republicans. 'Race was the predominant criterion in drawing all of the challenged districts,' Wynn wrote. The case became infamous, and a major part of the Democrats' effort to get black voters to the polls." -- CW

Friday
Oct212016

The Commentariat -- October 22, 2016

Nicole Perlroth of the New York Times: "Major websites were inaccessible to people across wide swaths of the United States on Friday after a company that manages crucial parts of the internet's infrastructure said it was under attack. Users reported sporadic problems reaching several websites, including Twitter, Netflix, Spotify, Airbnb, Reddit, Etsy, SoundCloud and The New York Times. Dyn, whose servers monitor and reroute internet traffic, said it began experiencing what security experts called a distributed denial-of-service attack just after 7 a.m. Reports that many sites were inaccessible started on the East Coast, but spread westward in three waves as the day wore on and into the evening.... A spokeswoman said the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Department of Homeland Security were looking into the incident and all potential causes, including criminal activity and a nation-state attack." CW: Reality Chex -- and in fact all Squarespace-powered sites -- were down for hours Friday afternoon.

Presidential Race

Emily Stephenson & Chris Kahn of Reuters: "... Donald Trump gained on ... Hillary Clinton among American voters this week, cutting her lead nearly in half, according to Reuters/Ipsos polling released on Friday. The polling data showed Trump's argument that the Nov. 8 election is 'rigged' against him has resonated with members of his party.... Clinton led Trump 44 percent to 40 percent, according to the Oct. 14-20 Reuters/Ipsos poll, a 4-point lead. That compared with 44 percent for Clinton and 37 percent for Trump in the Oct. 7-13 poll released last week." ...

     ... CW: In the last few days, the tracking is moving toward Trump, despite the huge raps against him. Pundits are very overconfident in the intelligence of the American people. Are people right about the "rigged" polls? Yes. Rigged toward the stupid. ...

... BUT. Katie Glueck & Kyle Cheney of Politico: "For much of his campaign, Donald Trump has done more to repel voting women than he has to win them over. Now mounting evidence suggests they are already punishing him for it at the ballot box. In three crucial battlegrounds -- North Carolina, Florida and Georgia -- women are casting early ballots in disproportionate numbers. And in North Carolina, a must-win state for Trump with detailed early voting data available, it's clear that Democratic women have been particularly motivated to turn out or turn ballots in." CW: So far early voters represent only a tiny fraction of the total votes cast. However, the total early vote in 2012 was 32 percent. ...

... AND. Philip Bump of the Washington Post: "... while it's probably not a surprise that early vote tallies in several swing states show a shift to the Democrats since 2012, it still means that Clinton has a greater percentage of banked votes than President Obama did at this point four years ago." -- CW

Abby Phillip of the Washington Post: "Hillary Clinton's ... appeal [to Trump-leaning Ohio voters] is part of a broader strategy by Clinton's campaign to exploit what it says is a new opening in a state where she has long struggled to get a steady footing. According to a Clinton aide, her team thinks that after the presidential debates, Ohio -- one of Trump's best states -- is now winnable for her.... Clinton's stop at Cuyahoga Community College on Friday was just a taste of the renewed attention her campaign is giving to the state. Sen. Tim Kaine ... made two stops in Ohio on Wednesday. Vice President Biden is expected to make two stops Monday, and Chelsea Clinton will campaign in Ohio next week, making three appearances in the state." -- CW

Ken Thomas & Lisa Lerer of the AP: "Hillary Clinton's campaign is increasingly preparing for the possibility that Donald Trump may never concede the presidential election should she win, a development that could enormously complicate the crucial early weeks of her preparations to take office.... Campaign officials stress they are not taking the outcome of the election for granted.... 'I've got to figure out how we heal these divides,' she said in a Friday interview with a Tampa radio station WBTP. 'We've got to get together. Maybe that's a role that is meant to be for my presidency if I'm so fortunate to be there.'" -- CW

Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post: An ad "released by the Clinton campaign on Friday afternoon, features Khizr Khan telling his story again. It's a remarkably powerful ad, connecting Trump's rhetoric on Muslims to the real pain that such a pledge would inflict on Muslim Americans. Real people would be affected by all of [Trump's] proposals, the ad reminds us. It's not just words by Trump. The ad, according to the Clinton campaign, will rotate into swing states, including Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio and Pennsylvania":

Elliot Smilowitz of the Hill: "Hillary Clinton's Brooklyn campaign headquarters was evacuated Friday after receiving a letter with a suspicious white powder inside. The New York Police Department's Emergency Service Unit determined after testing that the powder was not hazardous, the New York Post reported." -- CW

Ashley Parker & Trip Gabriel of the New York Times: "Addressing a rally in Fletcher, N.C., in the more rural western part of the state, Mr. Trump offered a slightly more restrained version of his typically freewheeling speech, largely seeming to hew to his prepared remarks. Gone were his complaints of a 'rigged' and 'stolen' election ... and he did not, as he has recently, try to beat back accusations from 10 women who have come forward to accuse him of inappropriate sexual advances. Instead, Mr. Trump offered an unusually candid, if still self-congratulatory, assessment of his debate performances -- 'I think the first one was fine, I think we won, easily, the second one, and the third one was our best,' he said -- and acknowledged the possibility that he might not end up in the White House, after all.... Later, at a rally in Johnstown, Pa., Mr. Trump took the stage with a renewed vigor..., complaining of a 'rigged system'...." -- CW ...

... Jenna Johnson of the Washington Post: "As he took the stage [in Fletcher, N.C.,] Friday afternoon, Donald Trump was as subdued as the modest crowd that turned out to see him. He complained about the usual things -- the dishonest media, his 'corrupt' rival Hillary Clinton -- but his voice was hoarse and his heart didn't seem in it. He also promised to do all that he could to win, but he explained why he might lose. 'What a waste of time if we don't pull this off,' Trump said. 'You know, these guys have said: "It doesn't matter if you win or lose. There's never been a movement like this in the history of this country." I say, it matters to me if we win or lose. So I'll have over $100 million of my own money in this campaign.'..." -- CW ...

... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump offered a new justification on Friday for attacking Bill Clinton's indiscretions and Hillary Clinton's handling of them: Michelle Obama did it first." You'll have to read the details to appreciate how Trump came up with this tenuous claim. -- CW ...

... Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump will have 'lots of options' to go after Hillary Clinton if he's elected president, he told supporters Friday. At a rally in Fletcher, North Carolina, Trump again dubbed his opponent 'the most corrupt politician ever to seek the office of the presidency,' a charged comment that sparked raucous chants of 'lock her up' from his supporters.... Based on his past rhetoric, Trump's options would include re-investigating the email controversy that has dogged Clinton's campaign and, as he said in March, appointing Supreme Court justices.... Perhaps unfamiliar with how the Supreme Court works, Trump said during the Republican primary he would 'probably appoint people that would look very seriously at her email disaster because it's criminal activity.'" -- CW

Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times looks into some ways Trump could challenge the election results, but he concludes that none would likely work.

Gail Collins: "There is nothing in the world that Donald Trump can't make worse.... [The Al Smith dinner] has been going on since 1945 without major incident, and it took Donald Trump to screw it up.... The reaction moved into flat-out booing, even before he offered them up the hilarious observation that Clinton was there 'pretending not to hate Catholics.'" -- CW

Tierney Sneed of TPM: "Donald Trump's calls for vigilante poll watchers ... has drawn attention to the consent decree the RNC signed in 1982 that banned the very sort of 'ballot security' measures Trump has encouraged from his supporters. If there's reason to believe the RNC was participating, it could be found in violation of the decree, which could keep the committee under its restrictions for another eight years.... The decree is set to expire in 2017." Despite a claim by Trump campaign manager Kellyanne Conway that "she is actively working with the national committee, the official party, and campaign lawyers to monitor precincts around the country," according to WashPo reporter Robert Costa, "the RNC has since denied to TPM any coordination on Trump’s supposed voter fraud prevention effort.... Costa told TPM via email that Conway called him back later to tell him she was mistaken about the RNC's involvement." -- CW ...

... BUT. Comrade Trumpski Has a Back-up Plan! Daniel Victor of the New York Times: "At least three American states have turned down Russian requests to monitor polling locations during the election on Nov. 8, as United States officials portrayed the overture as little more than a Russian public relations stunt. Russia's consul general in Houston, Alexander K. Zakharov, wrote letters dated in September to officials in Texas, Louisiana and Oklahoma requesting that a Russian officer be present 'for a short period of time, when convenient,' with the 'goal of studying the U.S. experience in organization of voting process.'" -- CW

Meet Your Trump Supporters. Ulltra-conservative writer David French of the National Review outlines how many Trump backers have reacted since he un-endorsed Donald Trump. It's truly sickening. -- CW

A Skunk Cabbage by Any Other Name.... Caily Rizzo of Travel & Leisure: "Amidst reports that occupancy rates at Trump Hotels have slipped this election season, the company has announced that new brand hotels will no longer bear the Trump name. The newest line of luxury hotels, geared towards millennials, will be called Scion, the company said.... Although Trump Hotels has said the new name has nothing to do with the eponymous businessman's presidential campaign, empty rooms at the hotels have caused officials 'to reduce rates during the peak season,' according to New York Magazine." -- CW ...

... Digby in Salon: "The Trump brand has a problem and it's spreading beyond his consumer goods to his real estate holdings." -- CW

Crooked Foreigners Try to Influence U.S. Election (Okay, Hayek is a naturalized American, but you know that doesn't count):

     Nolan McCaskill of Politico: "Donald Trump told Richard Branson during their first encounter that he would spend the remainder of his life trying to destroy five people he had asked to no avail to aid him after his latest bankruptcy, the English business mogul wrote Friday. Branson, the Virgin Group founder who wrote in his blog last week that Trump would be a 'disaster' as president, described a tale of two lunches Friday, starting with his meeting with Trump.... He [went] on to compare his lunch with Trump to dining with Hillary Clinton. 'Here we talked about education reform, the war on drugs, women's rights, conflicts around the globe and the death penalty. She was a good listener as well as an eloquent speaker, Branson wrote." -- CW ...

     ... Adrian Carrasquillo of BuzzFeed: Actor "Salma Hayek claimed that Donald Trump pursued her while she had a boyfriend, asked her on a date, and then -- angry at being rejected -- planted a National Enquirer story about her being too short for him, in an interview on a nationally syndicated Spanish-language radio show that aired Friday." -- CW

Frank Rich on the presidential race (and whither the GOP post-election): "The GOP elites would have it that [Paul] Ryan is the great white hope (and I do emphasize white) of their party, the 'adult' who will inherit the Earth once the Trump fever has passed. But as [a poll of Republicans] shows yet again, the Republican base doesn't want Ryan any more than it wanted a Kasich (10 percent). It wants another Trump, a new and improved Trump: That's why the aggregate percentage in the poll for the base favorites of the GOP -- Pence, Trump, and Cruz -- is 70 percent as opposed to a total of 25 percent for Ryan and Kasich. So Pence is serving as a placeholder until the next shining demagogue comes along." -- CW

Senate Race

Kevin Robillard of Politico: "Former Ku Klux Klan leader David Duke has qualified for a televised debate in Louisiana's Senate race after a new poll showed him drawing 5 percent of the vote. Duke, a white supremacist, announced he was running late this summer, saying ... Donald Trump had inspired him and drawn more followers to his cause." CW: Congratulations, Louisiana!

Beyond the Beltway

Kaboom! Ted Sherman & Matt Arco of NJ.com: "In an emotional day of testimony, Bridget Anne Kelly ... [told] a jury she told Gov. Chris Christie in advance about the plan to close toll lanes at the George Washington Bridge in 2013, and had gotten his approval for what she thought was a legitimate traffic study.... And she asserted that other higher-ups in the governor's inner circle were all well-aware of what was going on in Fort Lee, long before it played out, and that no one seemed that concerned about it.... The author of the now-infamous message 'time for some traffic problems in Fort Lee' called what has long appeared to be the smoking gun in the case an innocent response to what she called a 'crazy plan' by David Wildstein, the admitted mastermind of the lane shutdowns. Kelly said Wildstein told her he wanted to realign local toll lanes to reduce travel time for commuters..., and wanted the governor's approval. She said she was parroting his language that the realignment would temporarily cause traffic problems in Fort Lee, and only wanted to let him know the governor had agreed to the plan." ...

     ... CW: Do read on. One nice touch: Christie got mad at Kelly about another matter & threw a water bottle at her, hitting her arm. He sounds like a great boss. ...

... Ryan Hutchins of Politico has more on Kelly's testimony. ...

... Kate Zernike has the New York Times' story: Kelly "... has yet to face cross-examination. And in her testimony, which will resume on Monday, she will have to explain an even more damning message, sent to Mr. Wildstein when he told her about the traffic problems on the first day of the purported study. 'Is it wrong that I am smiling?' she wrote." -- CW

Another Court Win for Women. CBS News: "A federal judge has blocked a Mississippi law that banned the state's Medicaid program from spending money with any health care provider that offers abortions. U.S. District Judge Daniel P. Jordan III ruled Thursday in a lawsuit filed in mid-June by two Planned Parenthood affiliates. The law took effect July 1. Jordan said every court to consider similar laws has found they violate the 'free-choice-of-provider' provision of federal law. Medicaid is paid by federal and state dollars." CW: Jordan is a Bush II appointee.