The Commentariat -- October 18, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Andrew Kaczynski of CNN: "Like his father, Donald Trump Jr. has a history of engaging in controversial conversations with radio shock-jocks.... On shows like 'Opie and Anthony,' the now-defunct 'The Six Pack,' and 'Opie with Jim Norton,' the younger Trump made a joke about the 2012 Aurora theater shooting, expressed regret he could no longer mock overweight people, invoked Arab stereotypes, and joked about child beauty contestants being abused by their parents. The Trump son also noted there were hours of footage of the 'The Apprentice' left on the cutting room floor that would appeal to those with a 'sick sense of humor.'" -- CW

Kevin Freking of the AP: "President Barack Obama praised Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi on Tuesday for 'bold' and 'progressive' leadership that Obama said is exactly what Europe needs at a time of crisis and soul-searching. Obama also hailed U.S. relations with Italy, saying America has many strong allies around the world but that few are as strong, reliable and capable as the boot-shaped country.... Standing in the sun-washed Rose Garden after private talks on a range of world issues, Obama said during a news conference with Renzi that he counted his much younger counterpart -- Renzi is 41, Obama is 55 -- among his closest partners and friends on the world stage.... Hours earlier, Obama said it was a 'bittersweet moment' as he and first lady Michelle Obama welcomed the Italian leader and his wife for an official visit and the final state dinner of Obama's presidency. 'We've saved the best for last,' Obama said, grinning." -- CW ...

... Arlette Saenz of ABC News: "President Obama today characterized Donald Trump's affection for Russian President Vladimir Putin as an 'unprecedented' moment in U.S. history. 'Any characterization that somehow we have improperly challenged Russian aggression or have somehow tried to encroach on their legitimate interests is just wrong. And Mr. Trump's continued flattery of Mr. Putin and the degree to which he appears to model many of his policies and approaches to politics of Mr. Putin is unprecedented in American politics,' the president said at a joint news conference with Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi." -- CW ...

... Mark Landler of the New York Times: "President Obama said Tuesday that Donald J. Trump should 'stop whining and go try to make his case to get votes.' Speaking at a Rose Garden news conference with Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister, Mr. Obama also called it 'unprecedented' for any presidential candidate to 'discredit the elections' before any votes were even cast, as Mr. Trump has done repeatedly in recent days." -- CW

... Video of the full press conference is here.

Send in the Thugs. Ben Jacobs of the Guardian: "Donald Trump's 'election protection' effort will be run by Mike Roman, a Republican operative best known for promoting a video of apparent voter intimidation by the New Black Panthers outside a polling place in 2008. Roman is to oversee poll-watching efforts as Trump undertakes an unprecedented effort by a major party nominee by calling into question the legitimacy of the popular vote weeks before election day. The Republican nominee has insisted, without evidence, that dead people and undocumented immigrants are voting in the United States." -- CW

Charles Pierce: "Imagine where we'd be if Trump didn't go bananas every night....People who are confused as to how the party of moral values and Jesus militants came to this have forgotten their William James. 'Piety is the mask,' James wrote. 'The inner force is tribal instinct.'" -- CW

Consumers to Donald Trump: You’re fired! Corey Schouten of CBS Moneywatch. "Donald J. Trump thought he could ride the coattails of his lucrative personal brand and business interests to the White House. But mounting evidence suggests his nasty and divisive run for president is harming his business interests instead. Traffic is down at Trump-branded resorts and golf courses, consumer surveys show his name now adds less value to a product, he's become radioactive as a mass entertainer and spokesman, and charities are wary about holding fundraising events at his swanky Mar-a-Lago resort in Palm Beach, Fla. Bottom line: His brand may lack the stamina to fully weather his own rhetorical assault on women, immigrants, Muslims, people with disabilities, Gold Star families, and so on. Akhilleus: It's a conspiracy, dammit! Everyone loves me! I'm yuuuuuge with the ladies and "the blacks" and the A-rabs and even hose dirty messicans. I hire plenty of them to clean the toilets in my hotels. They love me! They can't fire me. The author does point out that the Trump family businesses are in good hands while daddy is off blowtorching democracy because the kids -- I'm guessing Junior and Little Dracula -- are so smart and "well adjusted". Hmmmm.....must be thinking of some other Trump family. Well adjusted? Smart? Nahh. ...

... See also Kevin Drum's post, linked below.

Caroline Grueskin of the Bismarck (North Dakota) Tribune: "Criminal charges filed against a journalist, who covered a pipeline protest, were dropped Monday after a judge refused to sign the complaint against her. Judge John Grinsteiner did not find probable cause that Amy Goodman had engaged in a riot while reporting on a clash between protesters and private security in September.... Prosecutor Ladd Erickson had asked the judge to charge Goodman with engaging in a riot after dropping a criminal trespass charge against her, due to legal problems proving the charge.... Goodman is the host and executive producer of Democracy Now, a radio/news program that airs on 1,400 stations worldwide. She has won several prestigious awards for her reporting. Nearly 200 people came to the courthouse to support Goodman." -- CW

*****

Presidential Race

High-Quality Polling Says.... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post. "The polls are coming fast and furious right now, and they're increasingly bad for Donald Trump. In fact, we can now say this: Were Trump to actually win, it would represent the biggest late comeback in the history of presidential polls.... Monmouth University is the most recent to show a big swing in Hillary Clinton's favor. Its just-released national survey has her leading Trump by 12 points, 50-38. That 12-point margin is the biggest so far this month...and other recent high-quality polls have shown her up 9 points (NBC-WSJ last week), 8 points (George Washington University), 7 points (Fox News) and 4 points (Washington Post-ABC News)." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Akhilleus: I could be wrong, but I can't recall ever hearing so many polls qualified as "high quality" to differentiate them from the numbers generated by psycho fascists, the typical sources of Trump's polling data, after polling other white supremacists -- who also live in their parents' basements or in some fortified double wide -- all of whom spend their daylight hours cleaning the guns and their nights jerking off to Nazi porn.

Matt Flegenheimer & Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton's campaign is planning its most ambitious push yet into traditionally right-leaning states, a new offensive aimed at extending her growing advantage over Donald J. Trump while bolstering down-ballot candidates in what party leaders increasingly suggest could be a sweeping victory for Democrats at every level. Signaling extraordinary confidence in Mrs. Clinton's electoral position and a new determination to deliver a punishing message to Mr. Trump and Republicans about his racially tinged campaign, her aides said Monday that she would aggressively compete in Arizona, a state with a growing Hispanic population that has been ground zero for the country's heated debate over immigration.... [Clinton is] aiming to flip as many red states as possible to run up an electoral landslide [AND] redirecting funds and energy down the ballot...." CW: See also John McCain's pledge under Senate Races below.

Tal Kopan of CNN: "A top official at the State Department repeatedly sought to have the FBI back down on classifying the contents of an email from Hillary Clinton's private email server, documents released Monday revealed. According to notes from interviews conducted during an FBI investigation into Clinton's email practices, Undersecretary of State Patrick Kennedy personally tried to convince FBI officials that the email should be declassified. One interviewee described feeling 'pressured' by another FBI official at Kennedy's request. The FBI [and the State Department are] denying that any 'quid pro quo' was offered in the fight between the bureau and State Department over the classification level of the email, though one interview described it as such. At issue are somewhat contradictory interview notes contained in the crop of newly released FBI documents." -- CW ...

     ... Ben Schreckinger of Politico: "Donald Trump escalated his attacks on a State Department official who allegedly floated a quid-pro-quo to protect Hillary Clinton, accusing him of 'felony corruption' on Monday night in Wisconsin." CW: What did you expect? I suppose the plan is to throw Kennedy in jail along with Clinton.

Nobody should be surprised, because back in the Great Recession, when millions of jobs across America hung in the balance, Donald Trump said rescuing the auto industry didn't really matter very much. He said, and I quote again, 'Let it go.' Now, I can't imagine that. I supported President Obama's decision to rescue the auto industry in America. -- Hillary Clinton, in remarks at a campaign rally at Wayne State University, Detroit, Oct. 10

The record is clear that Trump in 2008 was supportive of rescuing the auto industry, saying the government should do everything it could to save it: 'You just can't lose Chrysler, you can't lose Ford, and you can't lose General Motors.' He touted DIP financing, but he was relatively agnostic about the preferred path. Even in 2015, when Trump seemed more uncertain about the preferred option, he said 'you could have done it the way it went.' Clinton twists his 'let it go' comment out of context and pretends he said it in 2008. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post

Daniel Drezner of the Washington Post: "After reading all three speeches [Hillary Clinton gave to Goldman Sachs] ... I don't understand why Clinton didn't make them public back in the spring.... What comes through is Clinton's comfort talking about the subtleties of international relations. The contrast with the current GOP nominee is rather striking.... There is nothing in the way of bluff or bluster in these transcripts.... These transcripts mostly reveal a person who says similar things in private that she does in public." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Jose DelReal of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump said he would be willing to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin before Inauguration Day if he is elected president, breaking sharply with precedent and showing little compunction over stepping on the heels of President Obama's final months in office. 'Putin has no respect at all for Obama. And I think that you have potentially a really catastrophic situation here, I'll be honest with you,' Trump told conservative radio host Michael Savage during an interview. 'I will say this, if I win on November 8th ... I think I could see myself meeting with Putin and meeting with Russia prior to the start of the administration. I think it would be wonderful.'" -- CW ...

... Maggie Haberman of the New York Times better captures Trump's advocacy for Putin: "Donald J. Trump suggested on Monday that Hillary Clinton was too 'tough' in her language about Russia, and said that if he won the election, he might meet with President Vladimir V. Putin before being sworn in." CW: Trump thinks Putin would be our ally in the fight against ISIS if only Clinton & Obama had been nicer to him. Apparently Trump is unaware that Putin is already fighting ISIS.

Of course, there is large scale voter fraud happening on and before election day. -- Donald Trump, October 17 tweet

Actual instances of voter fraud -- such as voter impersonation, ballot stuffing and bought votes -- are extremely rare, often unintentional and not on a scale large enough to affect a national election. Trump's alarming claim, once again, is without proof. -- Linda Qiu of PolitiFact

By Driftglass.... Clinton's New Voting Bloc: Dead People. Allegra Kirkland of TPM: "At a Monday campaign rally in Green Bay, Wisconsin, [Donald Trump] made the unfounded yet oddly specific prediction that '1.8 million deceased individuals' will vote for 'somebody else' in the presidential election. The statistic, which apparently came from a 2012 Pew study, found that up to 1.8 million active voter registrations came from deceased voters. Yet the study found no evidence of fraud or illegitimate ballots actually being cast, instead concluding that state voter databases were outdated." -- CW

In order to effect an election through impersonating somebody at the polls, you would have to do something that is incredibly impossible. Number one, you've got to find out who you're going to impersonate. Number two, you've got to be sure they don't come to the polls. Number three, you've got to hope nobody at the polls knows you. Number four, you have to be willing to sign your name and risk five years a felony, and then, you've got to find about 5,000 or 10,000 other folks that can do it and keep quiet. It doesn't make any sense at all. -- The Rev. William Barber II, of the North Carolina NAACP, explaining how voter impersonation "works" ...

... Greg Sargent: "... it's not unreasonable to speculate that Trump is ultimately trying to cast our entire democratic process as illegitimate, laying the groundwork to press this argument long after election day." -- CW

... See more under "The Accomplice," ff., linked below.

Asawin Suebsaeng & Gideon Resnick of the Daily Beast: "Oscar nominee Gary Busey allegedly sexually assaulted a female Apprentice employee during his time on the show, five Apprentice employees tell The Daily Beast. Donald Trump knew about the incident, laughed it off, and kept Busey on his TV series, these staffers said. Multiple Apprentice employees, including the alleged victim herself, told The Daily Beast that ... [Busey] 'grabbed' one of their colleagues 'firmly between [the] legs' during the 2011 season of Celebrity Apprentice. Busey also forcibly put the female staffer's hand on the crotch of his pants.... [The woman] also said that Trump would say 'gross things all the time' during The Apprentice, and that the atmosphere of Trump Tower was 'a disgusting place to work' due to the high frequency of sexual harassment.... '[Trump] is and always has been a joke -- I can't believe anyone now is taking him seriously,' she continued. 'He's a monster.'" -- CW

** Washington Post Editors: "WHAT HAS allowed the United States to last for so long as a democracy, when so many other countries have failed?... When we hold elections, the losing party acknowledges the legitimacy of the winner, and the winner allows the loser to survive to fight another day. Now, for the first time in modern history, a major-party candidate rejects both sides of that equation. If he loses, Donald Trump says, it will be due to cheating that makes the result illegitimate. If he wins, he will imprison his defeated opponent.... A voter's first obligation should be to preserve the republic which has been, for so long, the envy of the world." CW: Yes, and that's also the sworn obligation of every elected & appointed federal officeholder (and most state & local officials, too). What about it, Mitch & Pauly? ...

... "Trump's Descent into Ideological Psychosis." Former Dubya speechwriter Michael Gerson of the Washington Post: "In recent days, Trump has sneered at the looks of a woman who accuses him of sexual assault, denigrated the appearance of Hillary Clinton, proposed to drug-test his opponent, used his campaign to promote what appears to be a Russian covert operation, asserted that Clinton has held secret meetings with international bankers 'to plot the destruction of U.S. sovereignty,' attacked 'Saturday Night Live,' promised to jail his opponent and contended that the 'whole election is being rigged. Which means that Trump is sickeningly cruel, boorish, bonkers, subversive, conspiratorial, obsessive, authoritarian and reckless with the reputation of American democracy.... [Trump] is frighteningly unstable under pressure. He is easily baited, highly sensitive to slights, prone to using faulty information from the Internet, hyperbolic and vengeful." -- CW: Hey, you forgot the part about blaming Clinton for firebombing a local GOP HQ.

Jason Sattler in USA Today: "Barring a radical twist of fate, the biggest uncertainty of the election now seems to be which number will be higher: total accusations of sexual assault against Donald Trump, or total electoral votes for him. But even if he is crushed badly on Nov. 8, Trump has signaled he is not likely to give a concession speech. So Republicans should be prepared to do it for him.... The GOP needs to put forth at least one and possibly several 'designated conceders' who could take the stage for a candidate whose ego may not allow him any such decency." Sattler puts forth a number of designated-conceder candidates, including Sarah Palin, who could "use the concession speech she didn't get to give in 2008."

... BTW, if you're wondering what the penis diagram reference is at the top of the segment above, here's your answer.

The Accomplice. Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "... Mike Pence is urging supporters to sign up as poll watchers as he and Donald Trump raise questions about the integrity of the 2016 elections. Speaking at a rally on Monday in Ohio, Pence warned of the possibility of...voter fraud, adding that the national media 'is trying to rig this election with their biased coverage.'" ...

     ... CW: And don't forget: Gov. pence is apparently engineering a massive voter suppression operation in Indiana, primarily against black voters, according to reports. Rigged election? You betcha. Notice too how pence tries to straddle the fence in his remarks: pretending to go along with Trump's "rigged election" theme while actually blaming the "rigging" on press coverage rather than on some vast global conspiracy. But he sure is determined to make sure "those people" don't get to vote. Voter suppression is a horrible form of racial prejudice -- because it works. ...

... Ari Berman of the Nation, who wrote the book on voter suppression: "The true danger to American democracy stems from Republican-led efforts to make it harder to vote. This is the first presidential election in 50 years without the full protections of the Voting Rights Act, and 14 states -- nearly all controlled by the GOP -- have new voting restrictions in place for the first presidential cycle in 2016. There are far more people turned away from the polls by restrictions like voter-ID laws, cuts to early voting, and felon-disenfranchisement efforts -- which disproportionately impact people of color, young voters and low-income voters -- than cases of voter fraud." -- CW

He's not the man that we saw -- we heard him on the tape... Many times, I gave him an advice and I didn't agree to do all the tapes on Howard Stern, with Billy Bush because I know those people. They hook him on. They try to get from him some -- some unappropriate and dirty language.... I see that mainstream media. They want to damage my family and my husband's campaign. -- Melania Trump to Fox "News"'s Ainsley Earhardt

... Melania Speaks! Maggie Haberman & Ashley Parker of the New York Times: "Three months after she was humiliated when she delivered a plagiarized speech at the Republican National Convention in Cleveland, Melania Trump emerged from near-silence Monday to defend her husband during the worst stretch of his candidacy, saying 'he was egged on' by a television personality to boast about forcing himself on women." ...

     ... CW: Maybe Melania should have stuck with plagiarism. Obviously, this was the Trump campaign's idea, but they have her saying that a person who would have to negotiate with & confront world leaders can't stand up to a twerp like Billy Bush. ...

     ... The story has been updated to reflect more of Melania's remarks: "Ms. Trump, in an extensive interview with CNN's Anderson Cooper, said the women who had accused Donald J. Trump of groping and kissing them were lying, and likened her husband to a teenage boy who engages in macho boasting. She echoed her husband's complaint that he was the victim of a broad conspiracy between the news media and the Clinton campaign." CW: In other words, now both she & Donald are doing exactly what Donald has accused Hillary Clinton of doing: maligning alleged victims of the husband's sexual assault. And the "teenage boy"? He was 59. Later she undercuts her argument in responding to a questions about Donald's Twitter addiction: "That's his decision. He is an adult," she says.

... Nolan McCaskill & Cristiano Lima of Politico: "Melania Trump on Monday suggested it's fair for the media and Donald Trump to bring up former President Bill Clinton's infidelities during his wife's presidential campaign, saying, 'They're asking for it.' 'Well, if they bring up my past, why not?' Melania Trump asked, according to an excerpt of her interview with Fox News' Ainsley Earhardt." ...

     ... CW: The New York Post -- a right-wing tabloid owned by Rupert Murdoch -- & a Ted Cruz super-PAC both published nude photos of Melania, but the Clinton campaign, as far as I'm aware, has barely mentioned her, & certainly has not "brought up her past." Maybe Melania doesn't know the difference between Cruz & Clinton, but she should. ...

... John Koblin of the New York Times: "Billy Bush is officially out at NBC. The network announced the news on Monday after several days of negotiations over the terms of his departure, less than two weeks after a video from 2005 surfaced in which he and Donald J. Trump engaged in a vulgar and misogynistic conversation about women.... He was believed to be walking away with a payout worth millions of dollars...." -- CW ...

... Kevin Drum, too, has just begun to appreciate Billy Bush's "Svengali-like powers," but he moves on to highlight a few stories that provide anecdotal evidence that the Trump brand has suffered as consumers get to know the Donald. CW: What a shame of Trump has to take another $$billion tax write-off.

Matt Shuham of TPM: "Donald Trump's campaign manager on Monday distanced herself from Trump's tactic of targeting the appearances of the women who've accused him of inappropriate sexual behavior over the past week. 'It's not how I would answer the question,' Kellyanne Conway said in an appearance on MSNBC..., responding to a clip of Trump saying at a Friday rally that Jessica Leeds, 74, 'would not be my first choice.'... Minutes later, when CNN's Wolf Blitzer asked Conway in a separate interview if she wished Trump 'wouldn't have made fun of these women,' Conway replied, 'I would not say those things.'" CW: Obviously, the Trump campaign has sidelined Conway, who is certainly the top "shackle" Trump shed, & she's thinking about her future.

AND Whatever Happened to Chris Christie? Matt Friedman of Politico: "During the final few weeks of the presidential campaign, as Trump falls further behind in the polls, picks fights with his own party's leaders and makes unsupported claims about a 'rigged' campaign, [N.J. Gov Chris] Christie -- one of Trump's most faithful surrogates since primary season -- hasn't been there to back him up. The governor has not withdrawn his endorsement of Trump, despite calling the nominee's hot mic comments bragging about groping women 'indefensible.' But Christie -- who has appeared on camera to defend all manner of Trump controversy over the course of the campaign -- pulled out of an Oct. 9 appearance on CNN the day after the Trump hot-mic tape surfaced.... The governor was also was notably absent from the audience at the presidential debate the next night, despite reports that he helped Trump campaign prepare for it." ...

     ... CW: I too have missed Gov. Chrisco, though fortunately for me his name keeps coming up in a criminal trial. (See stories linked under Beyond the Beltway.)

CW: Maybe one of the reasons wingers hate journalists is that they have no idea what reporters actually do: like checking into the veracity of explosive claims rather than, say, accepting as fact jokes they read on the Twitters, then conveying those jokes to readers as outrageous "facts." ...

... Brian Beutler Connects Limbaugh & McCain: "Trump won the GOP nomination because the conservative media was already heavily Trumpified, and a Trump media conglomerate makes no sense because the conservative media will remain Trumpified once the election is over." -- CW ...

Senate Races

Chris Massie of CNN: In an interview on a Philadelphia radio station, Sen. John McCain [R-Az.] promised that Republicans would be 'united against any Supreme Court nominee' put forth by [Hillary] Clinton.... A spokesperson from McCain's Senate office later clarified his comments on opposing a Clinton-nominated justice. 'Senator McCain believes you can only judge people by their record and Hillary Clinton has a clear record of supporting liberal judicial nominees,' said McCain spokesperson Rachael Dean. 'That being said, Senator McCain will, of course, thoroughly examine the record of any Supreme Court nominee put before the Senate....'" ...

     ... Akhilleus: Oh yeah, just like he's been considering Merrick Garland for the better part of a year. Don't believe a word this guy says. When McCain says Confederates won't consider anyone Clinton nominates, he means it. Trump is only the ugly tip of the winger iceberg. It's the ones under the water line, like McCain and Ryan and McConnell who will tear open the hull of the good ship United States.

     ... CW: This really is a shocking admission on McCain's part. Not only is he promising Senate gridlock; he's promising continued Supreme Court gridlock. Further, one has to assume he and his fellow Republicans would take the same tack against lower court nominees. If your state has a U.S. Senate race this year, vote for the Democrat, no matter how ridiculous (s)he may be. McCain himself is up for re-election this year. He has a well-qualified opponent in Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick. It's time for McCain to enjoy his old age in one or more of those nine homes he & his wife own. Maybe he could wile away his days reading up on the Constitution, which Trump has apparently caused him to forget. ...

... Jonathan Chait: "The fact that it is McCain, a personal friend of Clinton and as strong an institutionalist as can be found in the Senate, who is proposing to extend the blockade [of Democratic Supreme Court nominees] indefinitely shows just how deep the commitment runs through the party. The old norms held that presidents were given some deference in filling Supreme Court vacancies. Senators might object to a particular nominee on the basis of ideological extremism or lack of qualifications, but the president's general right to appoint a member of his judicial team was considered sacrosanct. Like all the other norms holding back the exercise of power, this one has now collapsed. The new rule is that a president needs 50 senators to fill a Supreme Court vacancy."

     ... CW: Our Constitution works only if the three branches of government perform the duties it prescribes. More and more, Republicans have opted out of doing even the minimum required of them under our form of government, thus crippling the other two branches. To vote for down-ballot Republicans is to vote for a somewhat controlled form of anarchy. ...

... PIgWhiP. The Party of Ignorant White People. Steve M.: "Obstructionism thrills the Republican base almost as much as a Trump speech, and it makes moderate voters just give up on politics altogether. It's an excellent way for the GOP to get ready for the midterms. And remember, the Republican base literally believes that the next Democratic Supreme Court justice will abolish Christianity in America and mandate total gun confiscation. If a justice is approved, every incumbent Republican senator is at risk of a primary challenge. So they're not going to go down without a vicious fight." -- CW

Other News & Views

Robert Pear of the New York Times: "When the Affordable Care Act's health insurance marketplace opens in two weeks, many consumers will have a new option for the law's fourth open-enrollment period: standardized health plans that cover basic services without a deductible. With many health plans on the marketplace coming with deductibles in the thousands of dollars, consumers have complained that they were getting little benefit beyond coverage for catastrophic problems. The new standardized options are meant to address that concern -- to ensure that 'enrollees receive some upfront value for their premium dollars,' as the Obama administration said." -- CW

Beyond the Beltway

Mark Stern of Slate: "Poor Rick Scott! The Florida Republican governor had just one job this election season: Vigorously enforce the state's voter disenfranchisement laws to disqualify as many Democratic votes as possible. Unfortunately for Scott, over the weekend, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Walker barred the governor from deploying one of his best disenfranchisement tools through two equally excoriating rulings. Both decisions provide an excellent example of the federal judiciary's increasing skepticism over irrational voting restrictions." Read on. CW: Walker is an Obama appointee. If thousands of Democratic votes count this election, we can thank Mark Walker for not letting Rick Scott's designated "handwriting analysts" toss our ballots in the trash. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Jeff Stein of Vox has a good round-up of events following the firebombing of the Orange County, North Carolina, GOP HQ. ...

... Anne Blythe, et al., of the Charlotte Observer have more: "In Carrboro on Sunday, representatives from an Orange County Democrats office called police to ask for extra patrols. Volunteers closed that office early after finding 'death to capitalism' written on the front of the Main Street building." CW: Carrboro also is in Orange County, contiguous to Chapel Hill, the home of UNC.

The First Amendment in the Age of Trump: Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times. There is "a genuine attack on the 1st Amendment being waged by prosecutors in North Dakota. There, prosecutors are threatening journalist Amy Goodman with a jail term and criminal fine for reporting on a public protest against an oil pipeline project.... State's Atty. Ladd Erickson, who brought the charges, told the Bismarck Tribune that Goodman 'put together a piece to influence the world on her agenda, basically. That's fine, but it doesn't immunize her from the laws of her state.' Goodman observes in response: 'We have a 1st Amendment. Is he saying that journalism is a crime? I think what he's doing is sending a message to reporters: "Do not come to North Dakota."'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... Akhilleus: Goodman was first charged with trespassing and threatened with jail time. When Erickson couldn't make that stick, he opted for charging her as a "rioter". The charges change depending on what the Confederates think they can get away with, the goal being to quash reporting. Oh, by the way, the day the bulldozers, contractors, and their attack dogs went after protesters, Goodman was the only national reporter on the scene. Trump's daily assaults on the First Amendment embolden Confederates to decide who has rights and who doesn't. If he's elected, it will be much worse.

Michael Kiefer of the Arizona Republic: "Acting on a judge's request, a U.S. Department of Justice prosecutor has filed a proposed order to show cause as to whether Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio should be held in criminal contempt of federal court. U.S. District Court Judge Susan Bolton asked for the proposed order to use as a 'charging document' to continue criminal proceedings against the embattled sheriff. She has yet to sign the order." -- CW

Bridgegate Trial, Ctd. Ted Sherman & Mark Mueller of NJ.com: "Bill Baroni said he believed David Wildstein. The former Port Authority executive, charged with using the world's busiest bridge as a tool of political retribution, took the stand in his own defense Monday, maintaining he knew nothing about a plot to punish the mayor of Fort Lee. He said he believed the closure of local access lanes at the bridge was part of a legitimate traffic study proposed by Wildstein aimed at easing congestion on the bridge's chronically congested upper level." -- CW ...

... Kate Zernike of the New York Times: "Mr. Baroni did not contradict Mr. Wildstein’s most politically explosive assertion that Mr. Christie knew about the lane closings as they were happening." -- CW

Zimmerman Wins Again! Jason Silverstein of the New York Daily News. "The Florida man who fired a gunshot at perpetual menace George Zimmerman was sentenced to 20 years in prison Monday for attempted murder. Matthew Apperson, 37, had testified that he shot in self-defense during a road rage incident with Zimmerman last year. He said Zimmerman's intimidating reputation -- especially for his fatal shooting of Trayvon Martin -- made him fear for his life.... 'The crux here is Mr. Apperson's blatant disregard for my life, any life,' Zimmerman told the judge Monday. Akhilleus: Wait, wasn't Zimmerman's excuse for murdering an unarmed teenager that "he feared for his life"? As to the murderer Zimmerman's astounding quote about Apperson's "disregard" for his life, I am stricken speechless. There's justice and then there's the law. They ain't the same. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Travis Andrews of the Washington Post: "To resounding applause Monday, the West York, Pa., town council voted to accept Charles Wasko's offer to resign as mayor, following a controversy about his posting of offensive and racist memes and messages to his personal Facebook page.... In a strange and confusing twist, though, it's not entirely clear if Wasko will actually follow through on his offer to resign. He did not attend Monday's meeting, nor were any outlets able to speak with him that evening. But Wasko did post a lengthy diatribe to his Facebook on Monday night, which led to doubt if he will actually leave his office." -- CW

Way Beyond

Loveday Morris & Kareem Fahim of the Washington Post: "Iraqi Kurdish forces advancing toward the northern city of Mosul paused Tuesday on the second day of a long-awaited offensive after the Islamic State staged tough resistance in villages east of the strategic city. The front lines were largely quiet after fierce fighting as Kurdish forces pushed to retake a string of villages on the edge of their territory as new footholds closer to Mosul -- the last main stronghold for the Islamic State in Iraq and a critical showdown for both sides. However, the Iraqi military made some gains." -- CW ...

... Martin Chulov, et al., of the Guardian: "Iraqi forces, supported by US-led airstrikes and special forces, advanced on Mosul from the east and the south on Monday in the first phase of a long-planned offensive to retake the city from Islamic State." -- CW ...

... Spencer Ackerman of the Guardian: "In a statement on Monday morning, the American general in charge of the coalition's war in Iraq and Syria, Lt Gen Stephen Townsend, openly acknowledged the presence of 'forward air controllers' amongst the US 'advisory' contributions to the battle." -- CW

The Commentariat -- October 17, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Daniel Drezner of the Washington Post: "After reading all three speeches [Hillary Clinton gave to Goldman Sachs] ... I don't understand why Clinton didn't make them public back in the spring.... What comes through is Clinton's comfort talking about the subtleties of international relations. The contrast with the current GOP nominee is rather striking.... There is nothing in the way of bluff or bluster in these transcripts.... These transcripts mostly reveal a person who says similar things in private that she does in public." -- CW

Mark Stern of Slate: "Poor Rick Scott! The Florida Republican governor had just one job this election season: Vigorously enforce the state's voter disenfranchisement laws to disqualify as many Democratic votes as possible. Unfortunately for Scott, over the weekend, U.S. District Court Judge Mark Walker barred the governor from deploying one of his best disenfranchisement tools through two equally excoriating rulings. Both decisions provide an excellent example of the federal judiciary's increasing skepticism over irrational voting restrictions." Read on. CW: Walker is an Obama appointee. If thousands of Democratic votes count this election, we can thank Mark Walker for not letting Rick Scott's designated "handwriting analysts" toss our ballots in the trash.

The First Amendment in the Age of Trump: Michael Hiltzik of the Los Angeles Times. "Donald Trump's increasingly febrile denunciations of the news media as part of a conspiracy to elect Hillary Clinton have garnered all the attention on the press freedom front, as is typical of his ranting. But they shouldn't distract from a genuine attack on the 1st Amendment being waged by prosecutors in North Dakota. There, prosecutors are threatening journalist Amy Goodman with a jail term and criminal fine for reporting on a public protest against an oil pipeline project.... State's Atty. Ladd Erickson, who brought the charges, told the Bismarck Tribune that Goodman 'put together a piece to influence the world on her agenda, basically. That's fine, but it doesn't immunize her from the laws of her state.' Goodman observes in response: 'We have a 1st Amendment. Is he saying that journalism is a crime? I think what he's doing is sending a message to reporters: 'Do not come to North Dakota.'" Akhilleus: Goodman was first charged with trespassing and threatened with jail time. When Erickson couldn't make that stick, he opted for charging her as a "rioter". The charges change depending on what the Confederates think they can get away with, the goal being to quash reporting. Oh, by the way, the day the bulldozers, contractors, and their attack dogs went after protesters, Goodman was the only national reporter on the scene. Trump's daily assaults on the First Amendment embolden Confederates to decide who has rights and who doesn't. If he's elected, it will be much worse.

Zimmerman Wins Again! Jason Silverstein of the New York Daily News. "The Florida man who fired a gunshot at perpetual menace George Zimmerman was sentenced to 20 years in prison Monday for attempted murder. Matthew Apperson, 37, had testified that he shot in self-defense during a road rage incident with Zimmerman last year. He said Zimmerman's intimidating reputation -- especially for his fatal shooting of Trayvon Martin -- made him fear for his life...'The crux here is Mr. Apperson's blatant disregard for my life, any life,' Zimmerman told the judge Monday. Akhilleus: Wait, wasn't Zimmerman's excuse for murdering an unarmed teenager that "he feard for his life"? As to the murderer Zimmerman's astounding quote about Apperson's "disregard" for his life, I am stricken speechless. There's justice and then there's the law. They ain't the same.

High Quality Polling Says.... Aaron Blake of the Washington Post. "The polls are coming fast and furious right now, and they're increasingly bad for Donald Trump. In fact, we can now say this: Were Trump to actually win, it would represent the biggest late comeback in the history of presidential polls...Monmouth University is the most recent to show a big swing in Hillary Clinton's favor. Its just-released national survey has her leading Trump by 12 points, 50-38. That 12-point margin is the biggest so far this month...and other recent high-quality polls have shown her up 9 points (NBC-WSJ last week), 8 points (George Washington University), 7 points (Fox News) and 4 points (Washington Post-ABC News)." Akhilleus: I could be wrong, but I can't recall ever hearing so many polls qualified as "high quality" to differentiate them from the numbers generated by psycho fascists, the typical sources of Trump's polling data, after polling other white supremacists -- who also live in their parents' basements or in some fortified double wide -- all of whom spend their daylight hours cleaning the guns and their nights jerking off to Nazi porn.

John McCain promises no Supreme choices for Clinton. Chris Massie of CNN: "[John] McCain promised that Republicans would be 'united against any Supreme Court nominee' put forth by [Hillary] Clinton. 'I promise you that we will be united against any Supreme Court nominee that Hillary Clinton, if she were president, would put up,' McCain said. 'I promise you'"

(Later in the afternoon, McCain's staff, realizing how outrageous that sounded walked that statement back--a bit.)

"'Senator McCain believes you can only judge people by their record and Hillary Clinton has a clear record of supporting liberal judicial nominees,' said McCain spokesperson Rachael Dean. 'That being said, Senator McCain will, of course, thoroughly examine the record of any Supreme Court nominee put before the Senate and vote for or against that individual based on their qualifications as he has done throughout his career.'" Akhilleus: Oh yeah, just like he's been considering Merrick Garland for the better part of a year. Don't believe a word this guy says. When McCain says Confederates won't consider anyone Clinton nominates, he means it. Trump is only the ugly tip of the winger iceberg. It's the ones under the water line, like McCain and Ryan and McConnell who will tear open the hull of the good ship United States.

*****

Presidential Race

Nate Silver: "Our forecast model ... shows Clinton with a 6- or 7-point lead. That translates to an 86 percent chance for her to win the election according to our polls-only model, and an 83 percent chance per our polls-plus model." Silver discusses factors that could change the dynamic. -- CW ...

... James Hohmann of the Washington Post: "The deeper you drill into the crosstabs of our new [presidential] poll, the clearer it becomes that [Trump] will have a very hard time getting more than 46 percent of the popular vote. That would translate into a landslide loss in the Electoral College." -- CW

The Omaha World-Herald, which hasn't endorsed a Democrat for president since 1932, endorses Hillary Clinton. That brings Donald Trump's total number of endorsements from major American newspapers to zero. It's a global conspiracy (more evidence: it's called the World-Herald). -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Democratic vice presidential candidate Tim Kaine on Sunday became the first candidate on a major-party presidential ticket to deliver a campaign speech entirely in Spanish. 'Buenos dias a todos. Estoy bien contento a visitar con ustedes el aqui in el Pneuma Church,' Kaine began his speech at Pneuma Church located in Miami...." CW: Poor Jeb! He could have made speeches entirely in Spanish, probably has. ...

... Get to Know Your Vice President. Evan Osnos has a long profile of Tim Kaine in the New Yorker. -- CW

High in a gold-encrusted Manhattan chamber, as you were getting ready for work this morning, there sat a crazy man holding an Android phone & blasting out his deranged thoughts in 140-characters-or-less bursts. -- CW

By Driftglass.Jonathan Martin & Alexander Burns of the New York Times: "Republican leaders and election officials from both parties on Sunday sought to combat claims by Donald J. Trump that the election is rigged against him, amid signs that Mr. Trump's contention is eroding confidence in the vote and setting off talk of rebellion among his supporters.... Mr. Trump ... is alleging that a conspiracy is underway between the news media and the Democratic Party to commit vast election fraud. 'The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary -- but also at many polling places -- SAD' Mr. Trump wrote on Twitter on Sunday. Mr. Trump made the incendiary assertion hours after his running mate, Gov. Mike Pence of Indiana, tried to play down his running mate's questioning of the fairness of the election.... Mr. Trump's words, though, appear to be having an effect on his supporters, and are setting off deep concern among civil rights groups.... Chris Ashby, a Republican election lawyer, said Mr. Trump's attacks on the electoral process were unprecedented and risked creating a fiasco on Election Day. Mr. Ashby also said the Mr. Trump was 'destabilizing' the election by encouraging his supporters to deputize themselves as amateur poll monitors." -- CW ...

... See also Trump's crazy claim that Clinton is responsible for firebombing a North Carolina GOP HQ under Beyond the Beltway.

Harper Neidig of the Hill: "Donald Trump on Sunday attacked House Speaker Paul Ryan on Twitter, just a day before he's scheduled to campaign in the Wisconsin Republican's home state of Wisconsin. 'The Democrats have a corrupt political machine pushing crooked Hillary Clinton. We have Paul Ryan, always fighting the Republican nominee!' Trump wrote." -- CW ...

... Greg Sargent provides a handy chart to help you keep track of all the international conspirators aligned against Trump. Sadly, Sargent's chart is already out of date, because it does not include "Paul Ryan, always fighting the Republican nominee!" -- CW

The Republican Presidential Nominee Is Insane. Philip Rucker & Robert Costa of the Washington Post: "In the presidential campaign's home stretch, Donald Trump is fully inhabiting his own echo chamber. The Republican nominee has turned inward, increasingly isolated from the country's mainstream and leaders of his own party, and determined to rouse his most fervent supporters with dire warnings that their populist movement could fall prey to dark and collusive forces. This is a campaign right out of Breitbart, the incendiary conservative website run until recently by Stephen K. Bannon, now the Trump campaign's chief executive -- and it is an act of retaliation.... Trump, bolstered by allies on talk radio and social media, has been creating an alternate reality -- one full of innuendo about Clinton, tirades about the unfair news media and prophecies of Trump's imminent triumph. The candidate once omnipresent across the [mainstream media' these days largely limits his interviews to the safe harbor of the opinion shows on Fox News, and most of them are with Sean Hannity, a Trump supporter and informal counselor." CW: This is a straight news story. ...

... David Leonhardt of the New York Times: "When Trump is feeling cornered, in business or politics, he has a go-to strategy: He lies, and he just keeps lying." -- CW ...

... Ryan Lizza of the New Yorker: "Trump and Bannon have given up on trying to defeat Clinton. They seem more interested in creating a platform for a new ethno-nationalist politics that may bedevil the Republican Party -- and the country -- for a long time to come." -- CW ...

... Alex Griswold of Mediaite: "The Financial Times reported Monday that ... Donald Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner is in talks to set up a Trump television network following the November election. According to FT, Kushner contacted Aryeh Bourkoff, chief executive of LionTree, a boutique investment bank with a history of media deals, within the past couple of months." CW: We predicted this months ago.

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump declared himself 'a big fan of Hindu' and praised India's nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, at an Indian-American charity event on Saturday. Mr. Trump spoke at a benefit put on by the Republican Hindu Coalition at a convention center in Edison, N.J., a non-battleground stop that is hardly typical for a presidential nominee three weeks before an election.... While polls show that Hillary Clinton draws far more backing from Indian-Americans than Mr. Trump does, his anti-bureaucracy and country-first language closely tracks that of Mr. Modi, who has tapped into the disgust that India's Hindu majority feels toward its government. This has given Mr. Trump a foothold of support among Hindus in the United States, some of whom are also drawn to his strong talk about Muslims, their longtime adversaries on the subcontinent." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

No Good Deed Goes Unpunished. In their biggest project, the Clintons used $400 million in aid and U.S. taxpayer funds to build what amounted to a massive sweatshop. And guess who set it up? Cheryl Mills. -- Donald Trump, campaign rally in Panama City, Fla., Oct. 11

The Clintons, including Mills, were supporters of this project and helped facilitate the planning.... The Caracol Industrial Park project ... was financed through U.S. tax money via USAID and grants from the Inter-American Development Bank. So far, $270 million have been paid -- for the whole park, not just the factory.... The United States was not involved in building the factory. While some workers have raised concerns about the working environment at the factory, there were no findings in the latest inspection that it would 'amount to a massive sweatshop.' In fact, the company pays at least minimum wage for all full-time workers and provides paid time off and free transportation to and from the factory. -- Michelle Lee of the Washington Post

Jose DelReal of the Washington Post: "Indiana Gov. Mike Pence delicately broke with Donald Trump on a range of topics Sunday, including his running mate's personal attacks against women who have accused him of sexual assault and on whether Russian hackers are responsible for leaking Democratic Party emails. Pence said he would not have disparaged the women who have accused Trump, even while defending Trump against the accusations.... Pence also sought to play down his running mate's rhetoric about the 2016 campaign's being 'rigged.'... Trump's critics say this could lead to violence and voter suppression." -- CW

It is a 'he said, she said' situation. -- Rep. Renee Elmers (R-N.C.), on CNN

To correct you, it's a 'he said, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said, she said' situation. -- Jake Tapper of CNN

Wherein Rudy Giuliani explains that only "inner city" Democrats are guilty of voter fraud. He left Jake Tapper shaking his head. CW: Waiting for Rudy to have a complete meltdown & just start screaming the N-word on national teevee. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Jake Sherman & Steven Shepard of Politico: "The American electorate has turned deeply skeptical about the integrity of the nation's election apparatus, with 41 percent of voters saying November's election could be 'stolen' from Donald Trump due to widespread voter fraud. The new Politico/Morning Consult poll -- conducted among 1,999 registered voters Oct. 13 through Oct. 15 -- shows that Trump's repeated warnings about a 'rigged' election are having effect: 73 percent of Republicans think the election could be swiped from him. Just 17 percent of Democrats agree with the prospect of massive fraud at the ballot box." CW: Remember that this isn't just TrumpSpeak, but a long-running GOP claim, designed to justify voter-suppression laws.

Other News & Views

The Wingers' Dystopia. Paul Krugman: "In [Donald Trump']s vision of America -- clearly derived largely from white supremacist and neo-Nazi sources -- crime is running wild, inner cities are war zones, and hordes of violent immigrants are pouring across our open border.... Meanwhile, you find almost equally dark visions, just as much at odds with reality, among establishment Republicans, people like Paul Ryan.... Mr. Ryan's vision of America ... is ... completely familiar to anyone who read Ayn Rand's 'Atlas Shrugged' as a teenager." -- CW

Edward-Isaac Dovere of Politico: "As Democrats aim to capitalize on this year's Republican turmoil and start building back their own decimated bench, former Attorney General Eric Holder will chair a new umbrella group focused on redistricting reform -- with the aim of taking on the gerrymandering that's left the party behind in statehouses and made winning a House majority far more difficult. The new group, called the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, was developed in close consultation with the White House. President Barack Obama himself has now identified the group -- which will coordinate campaign strategy, direct fundraising, organize ballot initiatives and put together legal challenges to state redistricting maps -- as the main focus of his political activity once he leaves office." -- CW

** Ian Millhiser of Think Progress: "... in more than half of the states, 'a person can be married on Saturday and then fired on Monday for just that act,' as one federal court explained in a recent opinion." Ian Millhiser describes some pending court action that may -- eventually -- change state laws that allow discrimination in the workplace based on sexual orientation. CW: I'll have to admit I thought Obergefell pretty much ended all forms of legal discrimination & nullified state laws that allowed discrimination. I was wrong. Obergefell is limited, & federal courts so far have allowed many discriminatory state laws to remain operative.

Beyond the Beltway

Liam Stack of the New York Times: "A firebomb tore through the Republican Party headquarters in North Carolina's Orange County on Saturday night, and graffiti warning its members to flee town was painted on the walls of a neighboring building, the party and police officials said on Sunday. The party posted images on Twitter of the damaged building in Hillsborough, N.C., on Sunday afternoon that showed blackened walls, charred couches and burned campaign signs for Donald J. Trump and several local candidates. A window was broken, and a swastika was spray-painted nearby alongside the words 'Nazi Republicans leave town or else.'" -- CW ...

... Chris Cioffi of the Raleigh News & Observer: "The Orange County Republican Party headquarters was firebombed overnight Saturday and graffiti was spray-painted nearby in an attack that the GOP called 'political terrorism.'... News of the attack spread quickly, and presidential candidates of both major parties condemned it on social media.... Donald Trump in a tweet Sunday evening said: 'Animals representing Hillary Clinton and Dems in North Carolina just firebombed our office in Orange County because we are winning @NCGOP.'... But Clinton's campaign tweeted, 'The attack on the Orange County HQ @NCGOP office is horrific and unacceptable. Very grateful that everyone is safe.'" -- CW ...

     ... CW: Pardon my bias, but I'd be surprised if Democrats or even unaffiliated leftists did this. We'll see. ...

     ... Jeff Stein of Vox: "Trump didn't provide any evidence for the claim that people representing Clinton were behind what Republican officials in North Carolina are calling 'an act of political terrorism.'... Authorities have said nothing to give any reason to suspect Clinton or North Carolina Democrats orchestrated the attack.... In isolation, Trump's wild claims would be worrisome enough: presidential candidates don't normally make unfounded accusations that their opponents are using covert agents to carry out fire-bombings.... But there's another critical context for understanding Trump's Tweet: The Republican presidential nominee has begun making increasingly conspiratorial claims that a cabal of 'global elite's is rigging the election for Clinton.'... Baselessly accusing Clinton of being behind the firebombing is crass. But it's also being used to fit a broader narrative his political opponent is so dangerous, so crooked, that she's willing to commit acts of terrorism to influence the voting results." -- CW

     ... Jim Fallows: Authorities have not determined responsibility for the firebomb, & described the perp as "somebody." "Somebody, from people concerned with facts and evidence. Animals representing Hillary Clinton and Dems, from the man asking to be put in charge of the countless judgment calls a president makes each day.This was the same judge-and-jury, rush-to-judgment thinking style that Trump displayed years ago with the 'Central Park Five.' This man demonstrates each day that he has reflexes rather than judgment and would be dangerous in any responsible role. And the supposedly 'responsible' leadership of his party, to their shame, continues to say: Put him in command!" -- CW ...

     ... Update. Mark Price of the Charlotte Observer: "An online campaign reportedly set up by a group of Democrats to help rebuild the firebombed Republican party headquarters in Orange County, N.C, met and surpassed its $10,000 goal in only 40 minutes. The GoFundMe account had raised $13,117 as of Monday morning. It was set up by a group of Democrats who said they hoped to make a statement against such tactics, which the state's GOP leaders have called 'political terrorism.'" CW: Must be a branch of the Democratic party that isn't taking its marching orders from Molotov Hillary & her international gang of terrorists. Either that, or Donald Trump is a disgusting, fear-mongering, incendiary liar.

Way Beyond

Rod Nordland of the New York Times: "After months of maneuvering, the Iraqi government's battle to reclaim Mosul, the sprawling city whose million-plus population lent the most credence to the Islamic State's claim to rule a fledgling nation, has finally begun. In the early hours Monday, an announcement by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi of the campaign's opening was accompanied by artillery barrages and a rush of armored vehicles toward the front a few miles from the city's limits. -- CW

The Commentariat -- October 16, 2016

Afternoon Update:

The Omaha World-Herald, which hasn't endorsed a Democrat for president since 1932, endorses Hillary Clinton. That brings Donald Trump's total number of endorsements from major American newspapers to zero. It's a global conspiracy (more evidence: it's called the World-Herald). -- CW

Wherein Rudy Giuliani explains that only "inner city" Democrats are guilty of voter fraud. He left Jake Tapper shaking his head. CW: Waiting for Rudy to have a complete meltdown & just start screaming the N-word on national teevee.

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "Donald J. Trump declared himself 'a big fan of Hindu' and praised India's nationalist prime minister, Narendra Modi, at an Indian-American charity event on Saturday. Mr. Trump spoke at a benefit put on by the Republican Hindu Coalition at a convention center in Edison, N.J., a non-battleground stop that is hardly typical for a presidential nominee three weeks before an election.... While polls show that Hillary Clinton draws far more backing from Indian-Americans than Mr. Trump does, his anti-bureaucracy and country-first language closely tracks that of Mr. Modi, who has tapped into the disgust that India's Hindu majority feels toward its government. This has given Mr. Trump a foothold of support among Hindus in the United States, some of whom are also drawn to his strong talk about Muslims, their longtime adversaries on the subcontinent." -- CW

*****

Presidential Race

Now That's Better. Mark Murray of NBC News: "Hillary Clinton is ahead of Donald Trump by double digits with just over three weeks until Election Day, according to a new national NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll conducted entirely after the second presidential debate. In a four-way race, Democrat Clinton holds an 11-point lead over Republican Trump among likely voters, 48 percent to 37 percent, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7 percent and the Green Party's Jill Stein at 2 percent." -- CW ...

... Earlier Today ...

... Sam Clement & Dan Balz of the Washington Post: "... With three weeks until Election Day, Hillary Clinton holds a four-point lead over Donald Trump in the race for the White House, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll, with the Republican nominee hobbled by persistent perceptions that he is not qualified to be president. The poll was conducted during one of the most tumultuous periods of Trump's candidacy, after the release of a video in which he spoke about taking sexual advantage of women and during a time when numerous women have accused him of sexual misconduct.... Nonetheless, the controversy appeared to have had only a minimal impact on his overall support." ...

... As Kyle Balluck of the Hill notes in his lead, 4 points is "well within its margin of error." (CW: By the same token, I suppose you could be an optimist & figure, "Ah, Clinton is probably really 9 or 10 points ahead.") ...

     ... CW: What this means in practical terms is that Donald Trump still has a shot at the White House &, depending upon where you live & work, there's a good chance that half the people you see are ignoramuses, boors or nihilists -- and I don't mean just because they condone serial sexual assault in their president candidate. I mean because they condone hate, bigotry & despotism, & eschew Western moral values & democratic governance. Ask the editors of the Des Mointes Register. ...

Des Moines Register: "The outcome of the 2016 presidential election won't tell us anything we don't already know about the two major-party candidates -- but it will say a lot about who we are.... For those who believe America should be a beacon of a hope in a world ravaged by terrorism, that it should be a force for good and that its leaders should embody all that is best about this nation, there is only one choice for president: Hillary Clinton." -- CW

This election is incredibly painful. I take absolutely no satisfaction in what is happening on the other side, with my opponent. I am not at all happy about that because it hurts our country, it hurts our democracy, it sends terrible messages to so many people here at home and around the world. Damage is being done that we're going to have to repair. Divisions are being deepened that we're going to have to try and heal. -- Hillary Clinton, Friday, in Seattle

Glen Caplin, a Clinton campaign spokesman, in quite a compelling essay in Medium titled "What Did Trump Know, & When Did He Know it?," compares the Trump-Putin-Assange operation with Richard Nixon's Watergate break-in. ...

... No, This Isn't Nuts. Daniel Marans of the Huffington Post (Oct. 14): "A group of senior House Democrats is calling on the FBI to investigate the alleged connection between Donald Trump's presidential campaign and the hack of Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta's emails, which it's widely suggested has Russia's hands all over it. Reps. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), John Conyers (D-Mich.), Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.), and Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.) pointed to informal Trump adviser Roger Stone's insinuations that he had advance knowledge of the emails' release as evidence that Stone ― or other figures in the campaign ― may have colluded in a Russian-backed breach." -- CW ...

... Chas Danner of New York provides unauthenticalted! copies of what WikiLeaks says are Hillary Clinton's speeches to Goldman Sachs, "all obtained via a controversial hack of Clinton campaign chair John Podesta's email account. The transcripts, which were of speeches Clinton gave at three separate Goldman events between June and October in 2o13, were attached to an email sent to Podesta." -- CW

Amy Chozick of the New York Times: "Though Hillary Clinton has stood at the center of feminist debates for more than two decades, she has at times been an imperfect messenger for the cause. That has never been more apparent than now, as her old missteps and her husband's history have effectively paralyzed her during a moment of widespread outrage." -- CW ...

... Maureen Dowd: "Hillary is in an awkward spot on the subject of licentious behavior by men. But Michelle Obama stepped in as the avenging angel Anita Hill never had. On Thursday at a rally for Hillary Clinton, her voice trembling with disgust, the first lady explained why the 'cruel' and 'frightening' actions of Trump -- whom she did not deign to name -- could not be written off as 'locker-room talk' or 'a bad dream.'... Disintegrating like a mad king locked away in his Fifth Avenue castle, ranting about a global cabal of corporate and media elites conspiring against him -- yes, a swastika sign popped up at a West Palm Beach rally -- [Trump] can't see how offensive his defense is: that the women accusing him were not attractive enough to assault." -- CW

Alex Spence of Politico: "Scottish leader Nicola Sturgeon urged Americans to vote for Hillary Clinton, saying she had been 'horrified' by Donald Trump's remarks throughout the presidential campaign. Trump, whose mother was Scottish and who owns golf courses in Scotland, has talked proudly of his links to the country -- yet the feeling is not reciprocated by Scotland's political leadership. Would I be proud if Donald Trump became president? No. No,' Sturgeon told ITV ... on Sunday.... 'This is America's election, it's up to the people of America to choose, but it has implications for the rest of the world,' Sturgeon said." -- CW

Good Teachers Have Guts. Valerie Strauss of the Washington Post: "In the unprecedented 2016 presidential election, some teachers are casting aside their neutrality to speak their mind.... They include 10 former state and national Teachers of the Year, who have written an open letter explaining why they are taking sides -- in public -- in this race.... '... We believe that Donald Trump is a danger to our society in general and to our students in particular. His words and actions have shown a consistent disdain for human dignity. His behavior goes against everything we teach the children in our care.... She isn't perfect, but we believe Clinton has the temperament and requisite skills to do the job. Most importantly, we believe she will uphold the American values of civility, equality and dignity for all...." Read on. -- CW

Hillary Clinton discussed the second debate with Ellen Degeneres for a show that aired October 14:

Here's a replay of debate highlights:

... Politico: "Donald Trump was not amused by Saturday Night Live's latest sketches about the presidential election, taking to Twitter early morning on Sunday to attack the NBC comedy show. 'Watched "Saturday Night Live" hit job on me. Time to retire the boring and unfunny show. Alec Baldwin portrayal stinks. Media rigging election!' the Republican nominee wrote." -- CW

Caitlin Flanagan, in a Washington Post op-ed: "Trump is crass, bullying -- and no dummy. Yes, he had all but invited women to come forward and accuse him. But by pairing his accusers with Bill Clinton's, he made us confront a potent reality: A man facing the allegations Clinton did might not be electable today.... Clinton's inner circle was able to dismiss the women -- on the basis of their backgrounds and sexual history -- as crazies or trailer trash ; as the accusations piled up, advisor James Carville coined the repugnant and resonant phrase 'bimbo eruption.'... The Clinton defense strategy centered on blatantly misogynistic practices.... The nature of culture is progressive and cumulative.... At long last -- far too late and just in time -- something has changed." -- CW

Ben Schreckinger of Politico: "Donald Trump appeared to question the legitimacy of Barack Obama's presidency on Saturday, referring to him at a rally as the 'quote "president."'" Trump used air-quotes to emphasize his point. -- CW

Nick Corasaniti of the New York Times: "Escalating his criticism of Hillary Clinton's debate performances, Donald J. Trump came to a state battling a drug epidemic [-- New Hampshire --] and suggested without any evidence Saturday that his opponent had been on drugs during their second debate. 'I think we should take a drug test prior to the debate,' Mr. Trump told a crowd of thousands gathered in the parking lot of a Toyota dealership on a chilly afternoon. He continued: 'We should take a drug test prior, because I don't know what's going on with her. But at the beginning of her last debate -- she was all pumped up at the beginning, and at the end it was like, 'Oh, take me down.' She could barely reach her car.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

     ... CW: Given Donald's history of projecting his own foibles on others, this comes close to verifying suspicions that Trump is self-medicating. My own recollection of the end of the second debate was that Hillary Clinton & her family rushed right out to shake hands with the town-hall attendees while Trump stood around lethargically talking to his family until someone -- perhaps Ivanka -- pushed him to go shake a few hands. The energy on the post-debate stage was the Clinton family's, not Trump's. He looked dejected & tired, IMO.

Rebecca Morin of Politico: "Donald Trump took fire from across the political spectrum Saturday for his repeated insistence that the election is 'rigged.' 'It looks to me like a rigged election,' Trump said at New Hampshire rally on Saturday. 'The election is being rigged by corrupt media pushing completely false allegations and outright lies in an effort to elect her president.'... AshLee Strong, a spokeswoman for House Speaker Paul Ryan, rejected the claims on Saturday. 'Our democracy relies on confidence in election results, and the speaker is fully confident the states will carry out this election with integrity,' she said in a statement. Republican strategist Mike Murphy went after a Trump tweet that said Hillary Clinton should have been jailed, and continued with his claim that the election is rigged. 'Trump is now attacking our Democracy,' Murphy tweeted. 'Any Elected R who doesn't condemn this anti-American thug will carry a moral stain forever.'" CW: Notice how Ryan hides behind his spokesperson rather than directly standing up to Trump. ...

... digby: "... Trump didn't invent this theme and the GOP leaders who are now expressing alarm that their voters believe the election is being stolen have only themselves to blame. All over he country they've been pimping the thinly veiled racist voter fraud meme for years, passing laws to suppress the vote and otherwise try to rig elections! They've admitted it dozens of times. Here's just one example from a GOP official: 'The Republican Party, the strategists, the consultants, they firmly believe that early voting is bad for Republican Party candidates. It's done for one reason and one reason only ... "We've got to cut down on early voting because early voting is not good for us."'" -- CW

King Kong vs. the World. Jose DelReal of the Washington Post: When Donald Trump decided his teleprompters weren't working properly at a rally in Charlotte, N.C., Friday night, he "physically dismantled one of the teleprompters. Then he knocked the other one down." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Darrel Rowland of the Columbus (Ohio) Dispatch: "Underscoring the searing divisions over Donald Trump within the Republican Party, Trump's Ohio campaign [Saturday] disassociated itself with state GOP Chairman Matt Borges because of his lack of support for the party's presidential nominee." -- CW

David Streitfeld of the New York Times: "The only prominent supporter of [Donald Trump] ... in the high-tech community, [Peter] Thiel is making his first donation in support of Mr. Trump's election. He will give $1.25 million through a combination of super PAC donations and funds given directly to the campaign, a person close to the investor said on Saturday. The donation puts the billionaire investor high on a very short list of big Trump contributors." -- CW

Paul Farhi of the Washington Post: "Donald Trump's rallies have never been the friendliest places for reporters. But lately, as Trump has come under increasing fire, an unwelcoming atmosphere for the press has turned into outright hostility.... Reporters are now concealing or removing their press credentials when leaving the pen to avoid confrontations with Trump's supporters. The atmosphere is particularly threatening to female reporters and to female TV reporters whose faces are well known, reporters say." -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Molly Redden of the Guardian: "Some 20 years ago, [Cathy Heller] claims, when she met Donald Trump for the first and only time, he grabbed her, went for a kiss, and grew angry with her as she twisted away. 'Oh, come on,' she alleges that he barked, before holding her firmly in place and planting his lips on hers.... Heller has added her voice to a chorus of women now accusing Trump of unwanted behavior. 'He can't claim we're all liars,' Heller said.... Heller had told [the story to] many friends and family members over the years, but is only now telling in public." Not only that, Trump pulled this stunt at Mar-a-Lago, on Mothers' Day, in front of a large gathering of Heller's family, including Heller's husband. -- CW (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... Paulina Firozi of the Hill: "Former 'Apprentice' contestant Summer Zervos, who accused Donald Trump of groping her, put out a new statement on Saturday with details about the cousin who is denying her claims. John Barry, who released a statement rebutting her story via the Trump campaign Friday, is a 'huge Trump supporter' and was recently fired from Zervos's family restaurant, said the statement by attorney Gloria Allred.... The Saturday statement from Allred also included details of another witness to Zervos's assault." -- CW

Meet Your Trump Supporters, Ctd. Lois Beckett of the Guardian: "'It's 'pitchforks and torches time', a prominent conservative sheriff tweeted on Saturday, with a condemnation of the government and media that echoes the increasingly heated rhetoric of Donald Trump's presidential campaign. David A Clarke, the elected sheriff of Milwaukee County, is a leading Trump supporter who has previously called Black Lives Matter activists the 'enemy'.... [Did I mention Clarke is black? Clarke is black. A timely reminder that among the human species, assholery is color-blind.] His remarks also raised concerns that it was inappropriate for a law enforcement official famous for his 'law and order' political views to be calling for citizens to take to the streets. Robert Post, a first amendment expert and the dean of Yale Law School, said Clarke's comments were 'horrible and despicable' but that 'an American court would view this as venting, basically.'" -- CW ...

... Meet Your Trump Supporters, Ctd. Matt Viser & Tracy Jan of the Boston Globe: At a Trump rally in Cincinnati Thursday, "said they plan to go to their local precincts to look for illegal immigrants who may attempt to vote. They are worried that Democrats will load up buses of minorities and take them to vote several times in different areas of the city. They've heard rumors that boxes of Clinton votes are already waiting somewhere. And if Trump doesn't win, some are even openly talking about violent rebellion and assassination, as fantastical and unhinged as that may seem. 'If she's in office, I hope we can start a coup. She should be in prison or shot. That's how I feel about it,' Dan Bowman, a 50-year-old contractor, said of Hillary Clinton.... 'We're going to have a revolution and take them out of office if that's what it takes. There's going to be a lot of bloodshed. But that's what it's going to take.... I would do whatever I can for my country.'... They believe what Trump has told them over and over, that this election is rigged, and if he loses, it will be because of a massive conspiracy to take him down." (Emphasis added.) -- CW

CW: The only reasonable assumption is that Donald Trump decided to build on the racist pie he had already baked during his birther binge, slather it with immigrant-bashing, toss in a huge lump of religious bigotry & lard it all over with a thick layer of misogyny -- all for the cynical purposes of increasing his fame & wealth. Trump may have achieved one thing in this election: becoming the greatest villain in American history.

Photoshop of the Day Week:

The "Kisses" urinals at Belushi's sports bar at hostel St. Christopher's Inns in Paris, France.

Other News & Views

Connor O'Brien of Politico: "Vice President Joe Biden says the U.S. is planning to retaliate against Russia for a series of cyberattacks targeting the Democratic National Committee and other political operations. 'We're sending a message. We have the capacity to do it,' Biden said in an interview airing Sunday on on NBC's 'Meet the Press.' 'He'll know it,' Biden added, referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin. 'It will be at the time of our choosing -- and under the circumstances that have the greatest impact.'" -- CW

Capitalism is Awesome, Ctd. Neil Irwin of the New York Times: WalMart makes the astounding discovery that paying employees better & offering them advancement opportunities leads to better stores & higher sales. CW: A-mazing. Funny what a little R-E-S-P-E-C-T will get you, even when that respect is motivated not by common decency but by profit.