The Commentariat -- August 24
Tom Friedman, against all odds, comes up with half a plausible thesis: President Obama is "off his game." ...
... I've posted a Friedman page on Off Times Square.
Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling: "Rick Perry is looking increasingly like the Republican favorite for President- he led in the Iowa poll we released this morning and he leads by double digits in the national poll we'll release tomorrow. The biggest beneficiary of Perry's rise? It might be Barack Obama. In our first national poll pitting the two Obama leads Perry 49-43.... It's a different story for Obama ... against Romney. There he can only achieve a tie at 45%, and because there are a lot more undecided Republicans than Democrats in all likelihood Romney would come out ahead if voters had to go to the polls and really make a decision today." ...
For all of you progressives who think it would be great to have someone other than Obama at the top of the Democratic ticket, Nate Silver looks at statistical data and the histoical record to demonstrate "Why Another Democrat Wouldn’t Do Better Than Obama in 2012." Silver, I should tell you, is almost never wrong.
** "A Sales Tax on Wall Street." Economics Prof. Nancy Folbre in the New York Times: "... a sales tax on Wall Street of 0.5 percent could raise up to $175 billion in tax revenue a year, even if, by discouraging frequent trades, it cuts the total number of transactions in half.... Speculative purchases of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments in the United States go untaxed but for a tiny fee (less than a half-cent) on stock trades that helps finance the Securities and Exchange Commission.... President Nicolas Sarkozy of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany recently announced plans to introduce a [sales] tax in the 27 nations of the European Community.... Wall Street hates it, because it would cut into trading profits. But proponents like Dean Baker ... assert that it would primarily affect short-term 'noise traders' and discourage speculation.... Less speculation could lead to less volatility in prices, encouraging long-term investors." CW: surely Republicans will go for it! Folbre doesn't say so, but this tax would mostly hit the rich. Thanks to Doug R. for the link.
Henry Blodgett of the Business Insider: "Why is Bank of America's stock tanking? Because the market thinks Bank of America is worth much less than Bank of America's management says it is.... After observing the government's behavior during the financial crisis, the obvious bet would be that Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner is even now cooking up some new bailout scheme that, per usual, will save the bank and hose taxpayers. But Americans certainly have gotten sick to death of bailouts, so maybe that isn't such a foregone conclusion this time.... UPDATE: In an extraordinary move, Bank of America has issued a statement addressing some of the 'claims' in this post. In addition to taking a shot at me personally...," BoA disputed some of the figures Blodgett cited. ...
... Blodgett has a follow-up post here. ...
... And Then There Were Three (Big Banks, That Is). Douglas McIntyre of 24/7 Wall Street: "There is a rumor circulated on Wall St. that JP Morgan ... will take over Bank of America ... within the week. The government will support the deal with a $100 billion investment in preferred shares issued by the combined entity. Alternatively, the government may guarantee the value of a large pool of Bank of America assets. The word is that Treasury Secretary Geithner has discussed the transaction with JP Morgan CEO Jamie Dimon. The 'merger' would completely destroy the value of BAC’s common shares."
Leila Fadel and Joby Warrick of the Washington Post: "With rebel fighters celebrating in the streets of Tripoli on Tuesday, opposition leaders in this eastern Libyan city now face tough questions about how they will guide the country through what is expected to be a tumultuous transition."
Mackenzie Weinger of Politico: "The vast majority of members [of Congress] lack an academic background in business or economics, according to a study by the Employment Policies Institute, a nonprofit group that takes a conservative stand on fiscal issues. Only 13.7 percent majored in business or accounting, and 8.4 percent have an economics degree.
PolitiFact: "Sen. Sherrod Brown [D-Ohio] says Wall Street hedge fund managers pay a lower tax rate than a typical sheet metal worker or a teacher."
Right Wing World
Harold Meyerson of the Washington Post: "Republicans like to complain that Democrats practice “class warfare” and “the politics of division,” as House GOP leader Eric Cantor argued on this page Monday. What the Republicans’ position on the payroll tax makes high-definitionally clear is their own class warfare on working- and middle-class Americans. Their double standard couldn’t be more obvious: Tax cuts for the wealthy are sacrosanct; tax cuts for everyone else don’t really matter. Norquist, Cantor, Ryan, Camp, the Journal editorialists and the whole Republican crew give hypocrisy a bad name." ...
... "Boundless Cynicism." Jim Fallows: "Through the artificial debt-ceiling 'crisis,' through the Moonie-like spectacle in Iowa of candidates (including Mr. Sanity, Jon Huntsman) raising hands to promise never to accept any tax increase, the Republican field has been absolutist and inflexible about not letting any revenue increase, in any form, be part of dealing with debts and deficits. Except, it now turns out, when the taxes are those that (a) weigh most heavily on the people who are already struggling, and (b) would have the most obvious 'job-killing' effect if they went up."
Getting It Backwards. Jim Tankersley of the National Journal: "Want a textbook example of Washington spin at its fiercest? ... [A] press release from House Speaker John Boehner’s office ... proclaim[ed]: 'Majority of economists say spending cuts needed to reduce deficit, not tax hikes.' Punchy headline. Convenient harmony with Republicans’ anti-tax message. Also, not true. In fact..., a wide majority of [survey] respondents believe the federal government should reduce its budget deficit with a combination of spending cuts and, at least in small part, tax increases. Only 12 percent said the deficit should be reduced 'only with spending cuts.'"
** Walter Shapiro in The New Republic writes a tour-de-force on "Rick Perry: The God-Fearing, Know-Nothing, Pistol-Packing Embodiment of Liberals’ Worst Nightmares." ...
Another option would be to repeal the Sixteenth Amendment to the Constitution (providing the power for the income tax) altogether, and then pursue an alternative model of taxation such as a national sales tax or the Fair Tax. -- Rick Perry, urging repeal of the Sixteenth Amendment, which provided for a federal income tax
Jonathan Chait of The New Republic: Perry, of course, wants to devolve virtually all the functions of the federal government to the state level. That would, among other things, result in a far more regressive tax code. Consider the Texas tax system:
Texas relies heavily on its sales tax.... The poorest 20% of Texans paid an average of 6% of their income in sales tax, while the top fifth—households with an income of roughly more than $126,000 — paid 1.3%... [citation from the Wall Street Journal].
Perry's hatred of redistribution puts him perfectly in step with the current Republican Party, for whom opposition to the (downward) redistribution of wealth is the lodestar."
The Lord High Executioner. Robert Barnes of the Washington Post: "In his nearly 11 years as the state’s chief executive, [Gov. Rick] Perry ... has overseen more executions than any governor in modern history: 234 and counting. That’s more than the combined total in the next two states — Oklahoma and Virginia — since the death penalty was restored 35 years ago.... As the 2012 presidential race unfolds, Perry’s record will inevitably become part of the debate in a country where the number of death sentences handed down continues to fall and some states are renouncing executions.... [Perry] vetoed a bill that would have spared the mentally retarded, and sharply criticized a Supreme Court ruling that juveniles were not eligible for the death penalty.... And Perry’s role in the 2004 execution of Cameron Todd Willingham — who supporters said should have been at least temporarily spared when experts warned that faulty forensic science led to his conviction — is still the subject of investigation in Texas." ...
... CW: You thought Dubya was a poor student? Here's Rick Perry's Texas A and M transcript. Note the "D" in Principles of Economics. It was probably a gift:
I think we’re seeing it almost weekly or even daily, scientists who are coming forward and questioning the original idea that man-made global warming is what is causing the climate to change. -- Rick Perry ...
... Getting It Backwards. Brad Plumer of the Washington Post: "It’s not just that Perry’s wrong. In many ways, the field of climate science is moving in precisely the opposite direction that he’s suggesting.... Much of the climate science that’s been published since 2007 appears to have strengthened the consensus, not weakened it." ...
... PolitiFact: "Perry's remarks give the impression that the science of global warming is in dispute, that some scientists feel one way, and some scientists feel another way. He says that skepticism is growing. In fact, our research shows that's not the case. We found that there is solid consensus among the major scientific organizations and that the skeptics seems to be small minority."
Alex Pareene of Salon on how bad a Ron Paul presidency would be for the nation, especially with a Republican Congress. CW: If you're feeling even a teeny bit depressed, you probably should not read Pareene's post; the scenario he envisions is disastrous.
Steve Kornacki of Salon: "How to make Sarah Palin disappear: ... if you're tired of all of the media oxygen that the former half-term Alaska governor still manages to consume, then you really should be hoping that Palin actually does get into the [presidential] race: It may be the best way of making her disappear for good. Why? Because a presidential campaign would almost certainly end in defeat for Palin. And not just any kind of defeat -- epic, humiliating defeat, the sort of disaster that might once and for all convince the political and media worlds that the empress has no clothes."
AND the East Coast Earthquake Is Obama's Fault. Steve Stromberg of the Washington Post: "... So often, the president’s critics — on left and right — commentate as though Obama has some sort of magic button available for use at his sole discretion that can fix the economy, lower gas prices, instantly vaporize Moammar Gaddafi, rig congressional votes and, perhaps, prevent earthquakes — if only the president weren’t too busy doing other things to use it!" ...
... Media Matters: "Conservatives Can't Decide If Obama Was Too Busy Golfing Or Biking To Stop The Earthquake." ...
... Maureen O'Connor of Gawker: Earthquake hits near D.C.; Obama misses golf putt. "Finally, someone figured out why God sent an earthquake to the East Coast: To punish Barack Obama for vacationing." ...
He’s not deserving of criticism for the common cold on up. -- Jeb Bush, on President Obama ...
... Dan Hirschhorn of Politico: "Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush warned the Republican presidential hopefuls against ideological intransigence and knee-jerk opposition to President Barack Obama on Tuesday, saying they risk turning off middle-of-the-road voters."
News Ledes
NBC News: "Silicon Valley legend Steve Jobs, who has been on medical leave for an undisclosed condition since Jan. 17, resigned as chief executive of Apple Wednesday, saying he could 'no longer meet my duties and expectations.' Interim CEO Tim Cook was immediately elevated to CEO, while Jobs, 55, will stay on as chairman of the board." Includes CNBC video report.
New York Times: "The Congressional Budget Office sharply reduced its projection of total deficits over the next decade in the wake of the recent deficit-reduction deal between President Obama and Congress, yet it warned that the extension of Bush-era tax rates and other policies would more than offset those savings." The CBO budget summary report is here; the page includes a link to the full report.
New York Times: "Rebel fighters scoured Tripoli on Wednesday in their continued search for an elusive and defiant Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, a day after they crashed through the gates of his fortresslike compound, running madly across its sprawling lawns, ransacking its barracks for weapons and carting off mementos of his 42-year dictatorship.... Colonel Qaddafi, in an address broadcast early Wednesday over a local Tripoli radio station, called his retreat from the compound 'tactical.' ... He blamed months of NATO airstrikes for bringing down his compound and vowed 'martyrdom' or victory in his battle against the alliance. It was the second such address by Colonel Qaddafi, 69, since his forces lost control of Tripoli." ...
... AP: "Supporters of Moammar Gadhafi have resumed attacks on rebels who say they control most of the Libyan leader's sprawling government compound."
... Al Jazeera's liveblog is here. ...
... Al Jazeera: A senior figure in Libya's National Transitional Council (NTC) has urged all Libyans to come together to rebuild the country. Addressing a press conference in Qatar on Tuesday, Mahmoud Jibril said "Libyans need to heal and be united together, from every city and every neighbourhood. After the transition and elections, people who suffered injustices will regain their rights,' he promised." ...
... Reuters: Libyan rebel leader Mahmoud Jibril will meet French President Nicolas Sarkozy in Paris on Wednesday to discuss prospects for a political transition in a post-Muammar Gaddafi era."
Weather Channel: "Hurricane Irene gained strength Tuesday night and is now approaching major hurricane status (Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale).... Hurricane Irene will track across the Bahamas the next couple of days on a path towards the East Coast of the U.S. Friday into the weekend."
... Updated story here.
New York Times: "When the Federal Reserve chairman [Ben Bernanke] speaks at an annual gathering in Jackson Hole, Wyo., this Friday, markets will be searching for something, anything, that indicates whether more stimulus is on the way."
Washington Post: "Iowa Attorney General Tom Miller, who is leading foreclosure settlement negotiations with the nation’s largest banks on behalf of all 50 states, abruptly removed New York Attorney General Eric Schneiderman from the coalition’s executive committee Tuesday, saying he had 'actively worked to undermine' the group’s efforts in recent months."