;)
The Commentariat -- Dec. 24, 2018
Afternoon Update:
Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "With stocks extending their slide Monday, President Trump took another swipe at the Federal Reserve, writing on Twitter that the 'only problem our economy has is the Fed' as he continued to blame the central bank for recent volatility in the financial markets. But Mr. Trump's comments only exacerbated the sell-off on Wall Street, and stocks were on track for their worst year since 2008 and the largest December decline since the 1930s. The S&P 500 closed down 2.7 percent after a shortened trading session because of the Christmas holiday. The president's latest shot at the Fed undercut efforts over the weekend by Steven Mnuchin, the Treasury secretary, and Mick Mulvaney, the incoming chief of staff, to calm jittery investors and ease concerns that Mr. Trump might move to fire Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chairman." ...
... Michael Sheetz & John Melloy of CNBC: "U.S. stocks plunged on Monday in their worst day of Christmas Eve trading ever, as the S&P 500 entered a bear market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped by 653 points Monday in volatile trading, falling below 22,000. The Dow sank more than 2 percent, then recovered nearly all of the day's losses, before again falling more than 2 percent. The S&P 500 fell 2.7 percent, slipping into a bear market as it fell 20.06 percent from recent highs. Wall Street traditionally considers a drop of 20 percent or more from recent highs to be a bear market. The Nasdaq Composite Index slid 2.2 percent."
... Jonathan Chait: "The long list of Deep State operatives working covertly to undermine Donald Trump now includes numerous officials appointed by Trump himself. (This a testament to their deviousness.) The most recent is Jerome Powell.... The argument about Powell and the Fed is in large part an argument about how strong the economy is. As the New York Times reports, 'the Fed's rate increases have upset investors -- who seem to have a darker view of economic growth than the central bank does.' But you know who doesn't have a dark view of the economy? Trump. The president has relentlessly touted the recovery as the greatest ever. If Trump is right, of course, then this soaring rocket ship of a recovery which..., according to Trump, single-handedly engineered ... could easily withstand some small interest rate hikes. Indeed, it would be prudent to raise rates now, while the economy is in the midst of the greatest recovery ever.... Oddly, that is not Trump's position.... When Barack Obama was presiding over essentially the same economic conditions, Trump derided it as 'the weakest so-called recovery since the Great Depression.'... This dismal analysis would imply that the Federal Reserve needed the lowest possible rates.... But no -- Trump lambasted the Fed for leaving rates too low."
In the Spirit of the Season. Trump on Christmas Eve -- Railing against Democrats on the wall -- Criticizing U.S. allies for taking 'total advantage' of friendship with US -- Rebuking Mattis' worldview -- slams top U.S. envoy on ISIS fight (whom he said earlier he didn't know) -- Calls Bob Corker 'little' -- Manu Raju of CNN, in a tweet
The Shutdown Trumpertantrum Will Come out of Your Paycheck. Ari Natter of Bloomberg: "Even though paychecks stop going out to hundreds of thousands of workers, shutting down the federal government actually costs money -- and the longer it goes on, the more it will cost. Museums and parks can’t collect entry fees or sell souvenirs, the Internal Revenue Service collects less taxes, and it costs money for federal workers to mothball and restart operations. Plus hundreds of thousands of thousands of furloughed workers are likely, ultimately, to get back pay -- for not working."
Ed Pilkington of the Guardian: "The United Nations monitor who acts as global watchdog on the treatment of migrants is calling for an in-depth independent investigation into what happened to Jakelin Caal Maquin, a seven-year-old Guatemalan girl who died in the custody of the US government. Felipe González Morales, the UN's special rapporteur on the human rights of migrants, has sent a formal complaint to US secretary of state Mike Pompeo, via officials in Geneva, in which he sounds the international alarm about the death. Jakelin died on 8 December, less than 48 hours after she was detained by Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) at a remote border crossing in New Mexico."
Ruth Eglash of the Washington Post: Israel's "Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s right-wing coalition announced Monday plans to dissolve the country's parliament and hold a snap general election in April, after his government was significantly weakened more than a month ago when a key coalition partner resigned. The departure of Avigdor Liberman as defense minister on Nov. 14 left Netanyahu's government teetering on the edge with a single-seat majority in Israel's 120-seat parliament, the Knesset. As the government struggled to pass legislation important to each of Netanyahu's five coalition partners, questions were also raised over the chances of a formal indictment against the longtime Israeli leader in at least three criminal bribery cases against him. On Monday, it was an attempt to pass controversial legislation aimed at drafting ultra-Orthodox Jews into the military that ultimately prompted the 61-member coalition to agree unanimously that this government could no longer survive under the current circumstances."
Ryan Parker of the Hollywood Reporter: "The Cape and Islands, Massachusetts, district attorney announced Monday that Kevin Spacey will face a charge of felony sexual assault, the Boston Globe reports.... The actor will be arraigned on a charge of indecent assault and battery at Nantucket District Court on Jan. 7, 2019, according to The Globe. The alleged assault on a male victim took place at a Nantucket bar in July 2016."
*****
... at times it is a very wise thing to simulate madness. -- Niccolo Machiavelli, Discourses on Livy, Book 3, 2
I call it the Madman Theory, Bob. I want the North Vietnamese to believe I've reached the point where I might do anything to stop the war. We'll just slip the word to them that, 'for God's sake, you know Nixon is obsessed about communism. We can't restrain him when he's angry -- and he has his hand on the nuclear button' and Ho Chi Minh himself will be in Paris in two days begging for peace. -- Richard Nixon, to H.R. Haldeman, The Ends of Power
Trump is not simulating, nor is he testing a "theory." -- Mrs. Bea McCrabbie ...
Helene Cooper of the New York Times: "President Trump said on Sunday that he would remove Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who issued a stinging rebuke of the president when he announced his resignation last week, from his post by Jan. 1, two months before he had planned to depart. Mr. Trump, in a Twitter post, said that Patrick M. Shanahan, Mr. Mattis's deputy, would serve as the acting defense secretary. Aides said that the president was furious that Mr. Mattis's resignation letter -- in which he rebuked the president's rejection of international allies and his failure to check authoritarian governments -- had led to days of negative news coverage. Mr. Mattis resigned in large part over Mr. Trump's hasty decision to withdraw American forces from Syria. When Mr. Trump first announced that Mr. Mattis was leaving, effective Feb. 28, he praised the defense secretary on Twitter, saying he was retiring 'with distinction.' One aide said that although Mr. Trump had already seen the resignation letter when he praised Mr. Mattis, the president did not understand just how forceful a rejection of his strategy Mr. Mattis had issued." Mrs. McC: Because Trump is really, really stupid and/or he can't read. Also too, Mattis thought he had resigned, but Trump has now managed to fire him by tweet. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
Reports of the president’s aversion to reading are not as damning as reports of his poor reading comprehension IMO. -- Olivia Nuzzi of New York, in a tweet
David Cohen of Politico: 'I was one of many senators who privately sat down with General Mattis and said, "Please stay, stay as long as you possibly can,"' [Sen. Dick] Durbin (D-Ill.) said on NBC's Meet the Press. '"We desperately need your mature voice, your patriotism in the room when this president's making life or death decisions about national security...."' Added the No. 2 Democrat in the Senate: 'It breaks my heart that he's going to step aside. We counted on him to be there and to stop this president from his worst impulse.'" (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Connor O'Brien & David Brown of Politico profile Patrick Shanahan., Trump's new acting Defense Secretary. ...
... Another Win for the Kleptocracy. David Axe of the Daily Beast: "By tapping former Boeing executive Patrick Shanahan to temporarily replace famed former Marine Gen. James Mattis as secretary of defense, President Trump may have found a like-minded advocate for the U.S. weapons industry. Shanahan is a controversial choice. During Shanahan's two-year stint as Mattis's deputy defense secretary, Boeing has landed a series of lucrative military contracts worth $20 billion, on top of the Chicago company's previous deal to build aerial-refueling tankers and naval fighters for the Pentagon.... On Dec. 21, Bloomberg reported that the Pentagon would request funding in the 2020 defense budget for a dozen upgraded F-15X fighters worth $1.2 billion. Boeing builds the 1970s-vintage, non-stealthy F-15 at its plant in St. Louis. The Air Force for years has said it does not want more F-15s, instead preferring to order F-35 stealth fighters from Lockheed for around the same price as the F-15X, per plane. But the Pentagon reportedly overruled the Air Force and added the new Boeing fighters to the budget. Shanahan 'prodded' planners to include the planes, according to Bloomberg -- this despite the requirement that Shanahan recuse himself from decisions involving Boeing." ...
... Alex Horton of the Washington Post: Brett "McGurk was tasked with coordinating international efforts, from NATO allies to militia groups, in the effort against Islamic State militants in the region.... 'Brett McGurk, who I do not know, was appointed by President Obama in 2015, Trump said Saturday on Twitter. 'Was supposed to leave in February but he just resigned prior to leaving. Grandstander? The Fake News is making such a big deal about this nothing event!' It is not clear whether Trump meant he never met McGurk or was otherwise unfamiliar with him. McGurk was scheduled to leave in February, making his instant resignation symbolic.... Trump's assertion raised questions about his awareness of or interest in the intricate policies surrounding one of his cornerstone campaign promises -- the defeat of the Islamic State, in which McGurk played a central role in Washington, Baghdad and elsewhere.... The fallout over McGurk's departure and the Syria withdrawal brought sharp rebukes from former officials and some conservatives. 'Why don't you know the man who has done more than any civilian to degrade ISIS?' Susan E. Rice, Obama's national security adviser and U.N. ambassador, wrote on Twitter. McGurk has been described by current and former officials as tirelessly dedicated and respected by militia commanders and ambassadors alike, and his commanding expertise was sought and deferred to within the U.S. government." ...
... David Boddiger of Splinter points to a number of other observers who marvel at Trump's claim/admission that he does not know his own coordinator of anti-ISIS efforts, an admission made even more startling by the fact that Trump last week falsely claimed that he (and here he could be either McGurk or Trump) defeated ISIS in Syria. ...
... The Greatest Threat to U.S. National Security: Donald Trump. Susan Rice, in a New York Times op-ed: "This country's national security decision-making process is more broken than at any time since the National Security Act became law in 1947. Nothing illustrates this dangerous dysfunction more starkly than President Trump's reckless, unilateral decisions to announce the sudden withdrawal of all 2,000 United States troops from Syria and to remove 7,000 from Afghanistan. These decisions went against the advice of the president's top advisers, blindsided our allies and Congress, and delivered early Christmas presents to our adversaries from Russia and Iran to Hezbollah and the Taliban. The costs of this chaos are enormous, starting with the blunt, unnerving resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, one of the last senior administration officials committed to preserving American global leadership and alliances.... In abandoning the role of a responsible commander in chief, Mr. Trump today does more to undermine American national security than any foreign adversary." ...
... David Atkins in the Washington Monthly: "Trump is proving himself an insecure weakling and coward: lashing out at his subordinates, bullying Senators, refusing to explain his decision process, refusing to address the serious concerns raised, and appearing mercurial at best in his decisions. The White House appears to be unraveling from all sides. That's one thing for the country to deal with as a matter of domestic political turmoil. But it's quite another when an intemperate and insecure commander-in-chief is making dramatic and enormously consequential decisions for what can only be assumed to be the worst of reasons." ...
... Bruce Blair & Jon Wolfsthal of the Washington Post: "For over a year, Mattis has been trying to reassure congressional leaders that he could help check some of Trump's impulses, in part by intervening in the nuclear chain of command. In a break with normal procedures, Mattis reportedly told the commander of the Strategic Command to keep him directly informed of any event that might lead to a nuclear alert being sent to the president. He even told the Strategic Command 'not to put on a pot of coffee without letting him know.' Congressional leaders interpreted this to mean that Mattis would either deal with a possible threat before it reached Trump or ensure he was present to advise Trump when such an alert arrived. This assurance may have helped ease concerns about our nuclear weapons for some members of Congress, but only if they were unfamiliar with how the command and control structure truly works. Personal relationships and back channels are no way to manage a nuclear arsenal.... [BUT] The secretary of defense has no legal position in the nuclear chain of command, and any attempts by a secretary of defense to prevent the president from exercising the authority to use nuclear weapons would be undemocratic and illegal. With or without Mattis, the president has unchecked and complete authority to launch nuclear weapons based on his sole discretion.... [AND] Trump, as he is proving in stark terms, listens only to himself." ...
... David Cohen: "Lamenting that ... Donald Trump doesn't share the foreign policy views of many Republicans, Sen. Pat Toomey [R-Pa.] said Sunday on NBC that James Mattis' resignation letter 'put his finger on' those differences. 'I strongly disagree with this decision to withdraw, prematurely in my view, from Syria.'... 'I think senators need to step up and reassert a bigger role for the Senate' in foreign policy, Toomey said, adding that he would be looking for Trump to nominate a new Defense secretary who has 'a more traditional view' of U.S. foreign policy. Toomey said he customarily gives the president wide latitude in picking his Cabinet but would be more cautious in this case. 'The president's views are so divergent, certainly, from mine that I think I'll be much -- this one's going to be tough,' he said." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Michael Burke of the Hill: "French President Emmanuel Macron on Sunday criticized President Trump over his decision to withdraw U.S. forces from Syria, saying that ]an ally should be dependable.' Macron added that fighting 'shoulder to shoulder' is the 'most important thing for a head of state.' 'I very deeply regret the decision made on Syria,' Macron said during a news conference, according to Reuters.... Macron also emphasized that Kurdish forces in Syria, whom the U.S. forces have supported, have done important work, Reuters reported. 'I call on everyone ... not to forget what we owe them,' he said." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
David Cohen of Politico: "In explaining Democratic opposition to border wall funding, Sen. Jeff Merkley on Sunday dubbed the wall 'a fourth-century strategy' that his party would not support." (Also linked yesterday.) ...
... David Jackson, et al., of USA Today: "The partial government shutdown could go on for potentially many more days -- and perhaps weeks -- but the White House indicated Sunday that it was backing down on its main sticking point: It was requesting less than $5 billion for border wall funding. Still, acting White House Chief of Staff Mick Mulvaney didn't indicate what that number was.... Donald Trump is not backing down from his "fight over border security," Mulvaney told Fox News Sunday. 'I don't think things are going to move very quickly,' Mulvaney said. He also said 'there's a chance this could go into the next Congress,' which begins Jan. 3. Mulvaney said the White House provided "a counteroffer" Saturday to Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., and is awaiting a response. While not providing many details, Mulvaney said the White House has reduced its demand for $5 billion in wall funding but is also demanding more than the $1.3 billion Democrats are talking about. He did not provide the new number." ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: Why provide a number? The "number" is whatever number comes into Trump's head at any given moment. It could change dozens of times between the moment Mulvaney & Schumer agree on a number & the Congress puts a bill in front of Trump. AND it could change AFTER Trump signs a bill. One reason Trump stiffed so many contractors is that after he'd signed a contract, he decided the terms & costs were unfaaair to him.
... Quinn Scanlan & Kris Schneider of ABC News: "The president's incoming chief of staff [Mick Mulvaney] said Sunday that any money for the border wall would have to come from the Treasury Department, saying 'the Department of Homeland Security can't actually spend money from Mexico,'.... when pressed about President Trump's campaign promise that Mexico would pay for the wall.... Mulvaney also echoed a claim from President Trump and the White House that Mexico will 'pay' for the wall through cost savings to the U.S. from the new U.S.-Mexico-Canada trade agreement, or the USMCA." Mrs. McC: Actually, Mulvaney did not "echo" the cost-savings claim; he more-or-less agreed it was a silly assertion. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Shocking Scandal! It's Not Just the Government Shutdown. ...
... The "Real" Trump War on Christmas. Adam Gabbatt of the Guardian: "During Donald Trump's presidential campaign he talked often about his determination to win ... the war on Christmas. But despite Trump's repeated claims that 'people are saying Merry Christmas again' instead of the more inclusive 'happy holidays', there are several places where the Christmas greeting is absent: Trump's own businesses.... Instead of a Christmas gift guide ...[the Trump S]tore offers a holiday gift guide. 'Shop our Holiday Gift Guide and find the perfect present for the enthusiast on your list,' the online store urges. 'Carefully curated to celebrate the most wonderful time of year with truly unique gifts found only at Trump Store. Add a bow on top with our custom gift wrapping. Happy Holiday's! The use of the phrase 'Happy Holiday's' [sic] in Trump marketing would seem particularly egregious. The long-standing 'War-on-Christmas' complaint from the political right is that stores use the phrase 'Happy Holidays', rather than specifically mentioning the Christian celebration.'... But it's not just the online Trump store, that is failing to keep the president's Christmas promise." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Alexander Bolton of the Hill: "Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.), the likely incoming chairman of the House Intelligence Committee, says Democrats will subpoena special counsel Robert Mueller's report if President Trump tries to invoke executive privilege to keep it secret. 'I'm prepared to make sure we do everything possible so that the public has the advantage of as much of the information as it can,' Schiff said on CNN's 'State of the Union.'... Schiff argued that the Justice Department has set an important precedent by making public findings from its investigation into Hillary Clinton's use of a private email server during her time as secretary of State."
Damian Paletta & Josh Dawsey of the Washington Post: "Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin startled financial analysts, bankers and economists on Sunday by issuing an unusual statement declaring that the nation's six largest banks had ample credit to extend to American businesses and households. Mnuchin made the statement on Twitter after calling the leaders of the six banks, seeking to address an issue that had attracted little concern ahead of the treasury secretary's tweet. The statement came hours before Asian markets were set to open and following a sharp sell-off that made last week the worst for U.S. markets in a decade. President Trump has been furious at the sell-off, and efforts by Mnuchin to inspire confidence in the market have so far failed. Several analysts said Sunday night that his outreach to the banks and subsequent statement were likely to backfire and drive even more concern. 'Panic feeds panic and this looks like panic in the administration,' said Diane Swonk, chief economist at Grant Thornton. 'Suggesting you might know something that no one else is worried about creates more unease.'" ...
... Mrs. McCrabbie: It seems kinda perfect that the Munchkin wrote this tweet while vacationing in Cabo San Lucas.
"Trump's School Safety Commission Goes after Black Children Instead of the NRA." Washington Post Editors: "We didn't have high expectations for the school safety commission established by President Trump following the mass shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School. When asked if guns would be a subject, the study leader, Education Secretary Betsy DeVos, replied, 'That is not part of the commission's charge, per se.' But even low expectations proved optimistic when the commission revealed its brightest idea: scrapping a federal policy that protects minority students from unfair discipline.... The guidance was non-binding and, as Rep. Robert C. 'Bobby' Scott (Va.), ranking Democrat on the House Education Committee who will become committee chair next year, rightly pointed out, had absolutely no connection to school shootings. 'Rather than confronting the role of guns in gun violence, the Trump administration blames school shootings on civil rights enforcement,' he said in a statement.'" Mrs. McC: Because disproportionately punishing black kids is really going to cut down on mass murders perpetrated mostly by white males.
Kelly Weill of the Daily Beast: It's hard to be a crazy conspiracy theorist during the holidays. At traditional get-togethers, all your friends & family think you're, um, crazy.
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Reader Comments (9)
FOR MARIE AND ALL OF US:
This season seems unlike any other
and we, like Wordsworth, long ago
bemoan the world that is too much with us.
late and soon, getting and spending,
we lay waste our powers.
So cling tightly to those you love
and celebrate the moments of joy.
See golden days, fruitful of golden deeds
with joy and love triumphing. (Milton's optimism)
Thanks, PD, for the nice thoughts.
I swiped my Christmas Eve gift to you and others, what might seem some good news from the AP.
https://www.apnews.com/89f6e4c447954dacbcc3b6473bfbe952
about cracks in the Pretender's wall of support.
I'm still skeptical, but just maybe some Republicans (18 percent of voters) aren't as nuts as the lady I responded to yesterday and might be experiencing a little Pretender regret.
PD,
Well said. Optimism is a rare commodity these days, but better than eternally crepuscular pessimism.
Thanks for that.
And speaking of things well done, kudos to Marie for her excellent parody of "Twas the Night Before Christmas". Dash away all, indeed!
A good laugh is always welcome and this came with several, so I was well ahead for the day.
READING COMPREHENSION TEST
Little Donnie Trump, Washington, DC
You will be asked simple questions about the assigned reading. Please answer in a short but detailed response which indicates you understood the central theme of the material.
United States Constitution.
Answer: "Um...my favrette part was the 12th article. The one about being able to do what you want."
Wuthering Heights.
Answer: "That Heathcliff guy couldn't have been famous. He could've done anything he wanted otherwise."
Moby-Dick; or, the Whale
Answer: "Wait...there was a whale?"
Leaves of Grass.
Answer: "A book about, um...gardening. Right?"
Grapes of Wrath.
Answer: "Grapes get mad? This is stupid."
Declaration of Independence.
Answer: "What's all this about dissolving political bands? You mean like Ted Nugent?"
Of Mice and Men
Answer: "Something about rabbits."
Little Women.
Answer: "I thought this was gonna be good. Buncha crazy broads."
Holy Bible
Answer: "Holy shit. This is way too long. Have the guy write it in a couple of bullet points and I'll get back to you."
Another mood elevator, I guarantee:
https://youtu.be/I5IXlfJSEi4
Keith,
Sadly, not many people remember Stan Freberg. He was an amazingly talented guy who influenced a lot of modern comics and political humorists.
Here's an example of his genius. He once recorded a parody radio soap opera of two people saying only their names the entire time. "John and Marsha" is a classic of suggestive presentation using only inflections (which runs the gamut of melodramatic emotional conventions and even includes a sex scene, in 1951!). All in about two and half minutes.
You start out thinking "Well, this isn't all that funny. I mean, I get it but..." and then about a minute in, you start to giggle, then comes a couple of chortles, then you're laughing out loud. Pure genius.
There's a scene in an early "Mad Men" episode in which the characters start doing a little "John and Marsha". I almost fell off the couch when that came on.
And it's really funny. Just what we need in the Age of Trump, gentle, sophisticated humor with nuance and flair and without the meanness, the gutter mentality, and the repulsive stupidity.
Thanks for reminding us.
Re. Freberg: His production of "The United States of America" with score by Billy May could have been produced yesterday. In the summer of '63 our college theater group requested license to produce it as a musical play, but sadly was rejected. A friend and I can still sing most of the parts.
I'm sure others have noted the similarity Maybe too late in the day, but not too late in the season:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HX55AzGku5Y
Apparently one of the Pretender's favorites.
Headlines tell me he spent the day before Christmas airing grievances.