The Commentariat -- January 31

Ezra Klein's view of what should happen if Florida Judge Roger Vinson's opinion that the Affordable Care Act is unconstitutional prevailed in the Supreme Court is similar to mine: extend Medicare, S-CHIP, etc. to cover most of the population. The problem of course is that we currently have a Congress that would not do so. Klein also notes the absurdity of a "legal theory currently in vogue in conservative circles ... [that] permits the government to establish a single-payer health-care system that every American pays into through payroll taxes and that wipes out the private insurance industry but forbids the government from administering a regulated market in which individuals purchase private insurance plans and pay a penalty if they can afford coverage but choose to delay buying it until they're sick...."

... Klein comments on the nature of Vinson's ruling: "The full ruling has a very Bush v. Gore feeling, as Vinson concedes that his position is activist in the extreme and a break from the court's usual preference for limited rulings, but says, in effect, that he's going to do it just this once." You can read Vinson's ruling here. ...

Steve Benen puts Vinson's ruling into perspective:

... two Republican-appointed federal district court judges have now found that the individual mandate -- an idea Republicans came up with -- is unconstitutional.... Let's not forget two other federal district court judges, appointed by Democratic presidents, came to the opposite conclusion.... Overall, about a dozen federal courts have dismissed challenges to the health care law. ...

... Suzy Khimm of The New Republic: "The Republican attorneys general who brought the lawsuit wanted an unabashedly right-wing judge to rule on the case, so they deliberately filed in a very conservative jurisdiction of the state. Vinson delivered." ...

... Backstory. New York Times: Judge Roger Vinson of Federal District Court in Pensacola, Florida "... ruled on Monday that it was unconstitutional for Congress to enact a health care law that requires Americans to obtain commercial insurance, evening the score at two-to-two in the lower courts as conflicting opinions begin their path to the Supreme Court."

Helena Cobban in Salon: "Pro-Israeli groups and individuals in Congress and the rest of the American political elite have worked hard, for decades now, to demean and marginalize the work of anyone who seeks to understand trends in the Arab world on their own terms. They sowed the wind of our government’s current, stunningly evident impotence regarding events in Egypt. Now we are reaping the whirlwind." ...

... David Kirkpatrick & Mona El-Naggar of the New York Times: in Egypt, "political organizers, many younger than 30, are taking the lead in efforts to topple a regime older than they are." ...

... Nicholas Kulish & Soaud Mekhennet of the New York Times: "For four days now, containers arriving on ships have been stacking up at [Alexandria,] Egypt’s largest port.... With distribution networks barely functioning and the Internet down since Thursday night, much of business in Egypt has nearly ground to a halt.... The political crisis could turn into a humanitarian one if the current economic paralysis continues." ...

... Peter Nicholas of the Los Angeles Times: "A tight-lipped White House is taking an even-handed approach to the crisis in Egypt, suggesting that President Mubarak might be able to hold onto power if he allows competitive elections and restores individual freedoms. But inside the Obama administration, there are signs that officials are preparing for a post-Mubarak era after three decades." ...

... Jeffrey Fleishman of the Los Angeles Times: "The Muslim Brotherhood..., the Arab world's largest Islamic organization..., is muting its religious message amid a popular revolt that is not driven by Islam or politics. The organization's strategy became more apparent Sunday when it announced support for opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize laureate Mohamed ElBaradei as a transitional president if the Mubarak government is toppled. The move was recognition that ElBaradei, a secularist with Western democratic principles, is the most potent symbol for change in a nation desperate for fresh voices." ...

... NEW. Nathan Brown, director of Middle Eastern Studies at Georgetown U., talks to Justin Elliott of Salon about the history & organization of the Muslim Brotherhood. As Elliott suggests, you won't hear this on Fox.

... Massimo Calabresi of Time: "Political change is not always what it seems in the Arab world.... From the Western perspective it is not clear whether to fret about it or to embrace it. In truth, Washington has to do both, since it has little or no control over the situation, especially in the most volatile of the uprisings, in Egypt." ...

... Karl Vick of Time: "Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu firmly ordered his government not to comment on events in Egypt, but the headlines in the Sunday morning papers got the main point across well enough: 'A 30-Year Step Backward,' 'What Frightens Us,' 'All Alone.' ... Egypt under President Hosni Mubarak observed the 1979 peace treaty with the Jewish state, helped put pressure on Hamas from Egypt's border with the Gaza Strip, nursed peace talks with the Palestinians, worked to thwart Iran and along the way provided Israel with 40% of its natural gas."

... Looks as if the Blue Texan at Firedoglake has been reading the right-wing blogs so we don't have to. Here's her/his post on the five stupidest things right-wingers have written about the Egyptian uprising. Oh, they're stupid. ...

... If you're wondering why you don't get Al Jazeera-English on your cable, Ryan Grim has the answer. Meanwhile, you can watch it here.

Dexter Filkins, now of the New Yorker, on the failure of Kabul Bank. New York Times story by Alissa Rubin & James Risen here. ...

... Joe Klein of Time: "The answer, I think, is bail out Kabul Bank, but only if Karzai steps aside in favor of Abdullah Abdullah, who finished second in the rigged presidential election -- or a respected technocrat like Ashraf Ghani, who could lead a caretaker government until new elections are held."

Whatever happened to Barack Obama's longstanding enthusiasm for curbing global warming? Rick Hertzberg has a very smart, compact comment on the subject.

Kate Brumback of the AP: "A study by the nonpartisan Migration Policiy Institute "examined a program that allows participating local agencies to enforce federal immigration law>," and found that the law was being enforced unevenly. "Several agencies in the Southeast were turning over every illegal immigrant taken into custody ... while others are focused on deporting more violent criminals."

Mark Lacey of the New York Times: "... New York City sent undercover investigators to an Arizona gun show and found instances in which private sellers sold semiautomatic pistols even after buyers said they probably could not pass background checks, city officials said.... Private, unlicensed sellers are not required to run federal background checks, but it is a violation of federal law to sell guns to people if sellers suspect they are felons or mentally ill or are otherwise prohibited from buying.... In two instances, the New York undercover officers specifically said before buying a gun, 'I probably couldn’t pass a background check,' but were still sold guns, city officials said."

Does Connecticut Want to Replace One Preening, Sanctimonious Blowhard with Another? Sean Miller of The Hill: "Liberals want Keith Olbermann to run for retiring Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman's (I-Conn.) seat." CW: just say no, Keith.

CW: I normally pay absolutely no attention to Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post, but since he writes this time on the major flaws of the potential Republican candidates for president, let's have at it. ...

... Jim Fallows says Chinese Amb. Jon Huntsman, a Republican, can't stay on the job if he's contemplating a run against President Obama in 2012, as reports suggest. ...

... CW: I think Ben Smith gets it right: "... if you assume that the primary will be defined by and against Mitt Romney, Huntsman will be to Romney what Obama was to Clinton: A purer, more credible version." ...

... Backstory. Politico: "The White House expects Jon Huntsman, the U.S. Ambassador to China, to resign his post this spring to explore a bid for the Republican presidential nomination, top Democrats said. GOP allies of Huntsman have already begun laying plans for a quick-start campaign should the former Utah governor decide to" run. New York Times Update: "Jon Huntsman, the United States ambassador to China, has informed the White House that he plans to step down in the next few months, further stoking speculation about his presidential ambitions." Washington Post story here.

Steve Kroft of CBS News interviews Julian Assange for "60 Minutes":

     ... You can watch the rest of the interview & link to related content on the "60 Minutes" page here.

News Items

New York Times: "Egyptian opposition groups gathered on Monday for a seventh day in the central Liberation Square, seeking to maintain the momentum of their uprising against President Hosni Mubarak as the army struggled to control a capital seized variously by fears of chaos and euphoria that change may be imminent." ...

... Washington Post: "Egyptian police reappeared on the streets of this embattled capital Monday, after virtually disappearing over the weekend and leaving the military to maintain order in the face of anti-government demonstrations." ...

... Haaretz, Reuters: "Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak has instructed his government to begin talks with the opposition parties.... Mubarak told his new prime minister, Ahmed Shafiq, to start talking to the opposition and find out their specific demands.... Egyptian military officers and soldiers promised Monday that they will not hurt any of the protesters in Tuesday's 'million man march'." ...

... Globe and Mail: "Cairo's international airport was a scene of chaos and confusion Monday as thousands of foreigners sought to flee the unrest in Egypt and countries around the world scrambled to send in planes to fly their citizens out." ...

... AP: "Israeli officials say they have agreed to allow Egypt to move several hundred troops into the Sinai Peninsula for the first time since [1979].... Under the 1979 peace treaty, Israel returned the captured Sinai to Egypt. In return, Egypt agreed to leave the area demilitarized. With street protests threatening the Egyptian regime, the unnamed officials say that Israel agreed to allow the Egyptian army to move two battalions, about 800 soldiers, into Sinai." ...

... CNN: "While discontent, resentment and nationalism continue to fuel demonstrations, one vital staple is in short supply: food. Many families in Egypt are fast running out of staples such as bread, beans and rice and are often unable or unwilling to shop for groceries." ...

... New York Times: "While Egypt’s banks and stock market closed Monday because of the chaos there, the uncertainty weighed on markets elsewhere. Most Asian markets fell, although trading was already low ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday this week, analysts said. Shares opened lower across Europe as well, but Standard & Poor’s 500 index futures were flat, suggesting stocks would be little changed at the opening on Wall Street." ...

... AP: "Egypt needs a peaceful transition to democracy, EU foreign ministers urged Monday, warning the country's citizens to be on guard against a takeover by religious militants." ...

... AFP: "Former US president Jimmy Carter, who brokered the existing peace agreement between Israel and Egypt, predicted Sunday that Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak will have to resign because 'the people have decided....'" ...

... AP: "International Mideast envoy Tony Blair said Monday that a change in Egypt's leadership is inevitable after the week of anti-government protests that have gripped the country."

AP: "Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton is convening an unprecedented mass meeting of U.S. ambassadors. The top envoys from nearly all of America's 260 embassies, consulates and other posts in more than 180 countries will be gathering at the State Department beginning on Monday. Officials say it's the first such global conference."

New York Times: "Fraud and mismanagement at Afghanistan’s largest bank have resulted in potential losses of as much as $900 million — three times previous estimates — heightening concerns that the bank could collapse and trigger a broad financial panic in Afghanistan, according to American, European and Afghan officials." ...

... Washington Post: "The acting chief financial officer and other Pakistani employees of Kabul Bank have fled Afghanistan amid an investigation into the scope of the bank's reckless lending and allegations that its shareholders paid large bribes to many senior Afghan officials, according to Afghan officials and others familiar with the issue."