;)
The Commentariat -- Oct. 9, 2013
Jackie Calmes of the New York Times: " President Obama will nominate Janet L. Yellen as chairwoman of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, administration officials said Tuesday night...." Congratulations to every determined, annoying, liberal, feminist, egalitarian supporter & to those Democratic Senators who -- inspired by your perseverence -- just said no to the Other Guy. Sometimes the good gal wins.
... CW: Nonetheless, Yellen's nomination is beginning to look like a distraction designed to appease the liberal base so Obama can undercut liberal principles when he negotiates down social safety net programs during a short-term "amnesty" or grace period bestowed up us by the Sabotage Party. Contributor Tommy Bones speculated to this effect in yesterday's thread (before news of the Yellin announcement). I'd say Tommy got that right. ...
... Mark Yellin of BBC News provides a peek into Yellen's personal history.
Thanks to Kate M. for the Time cover.
Alan Fram of the AP: "Amid the tough talk [by Obama & Boehner], though, were indications that both sides might be open to a short-term extension of the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit and a temporary end to the shutdown, giving them more time to resolve their disputes.... Obama used a White House news conference to say he 'absolutely' would negotiate with Republicans on 'every item in the budget' if Congress first sent him short-term measures halting the shutdown and the extending the debt limit. 'There's a crack there,' Boehner said of the clash late Tuesday, though he cautioned against optimism." ...
... CW: Guess I missed that part of the presser. Let's think about how that would work. The House agrees to open the government for business by extending the status quo for a month or so & to raise the debt ceiling an itty-bitty bit --- in exchange for negotiating all the stuff they want. I can't see this as anything but an Obama capitulation & a Boehner win. Also, this would completely undercut Harry Reid's plan (see Brian Beutler's story below) to effectively eliminate the debt ceiling. ...
... Update: it appears Noam Scheiber of the New Republic wrote this post before Obama made his concession (or like me, he missed it), but his theory applies & jibes with mine: "... a short-term debt limit increase will at best simply defer our current drama for another six weeks. More likely, it will substantially increase the odds of disaster." ...
... Update 2: I read the transcript of the Q&A on this, & it's not as cut-&-dried as Fram suggests. Obama put a lot of qualifiers on that "absolutely." ...
... Lori Montgomery & Zachary Goldfarb of the Washington Post: "Short-term borrowing by the Treasury Department became twice as expensive Tuesday as it had been the day before, one of the most significant signs of alarm in the bond markets since the financial crisis of 2008. The stock market, meanwhile, continued the steady slide that began in mid-September, when Boehner (R-Ohio) embraced a right-wing strategy for using the budget battles to try to dismantle Obama's signature health-care initiative. The Standard & Poor's 500-stock index fell 20.67 points to 1,655.45 on Tuesday. The Dow Jones industrial average dropped nearly 160 points to 14,776.53 and has lost nearly 6 percent of its value since hitting a one-year high Sept. 18." ...
... Jackie Calmes & Jonathan Weisman of the New York Times: " President Obama on Tuesday intensified his pressure on Republicans with a hastily scheduled news conference, calling on them to both fund and reopen the government and to raise the nation's borrowing limit as the federal shutdown entered a second week." ...
... CW: President Obama really acquitted himself well. He used a lot of examples that regular people can understand, so if the news media play back any of his analogies, even dummkopfs will get it. ...
... Here's the full transcript, via the Washington Post. ...
... Ed O'Keefe & Paul Kane of the Washington Post: "Obama made the comments as House Republican leaders pressed demands for negotiations with Senate Democrats and Obama over bills to fund the government and raise the debt limit, but declined to lay out what they are seeking in the proposed talks. Speaking to reporters after his weekly meeting with House Republicans, Speaker John A. Boehner (R-Ohio) charged that 'by refusing to negotiate,' Obama and Senate Majority Leader Harry M. Reid (D-Nev.) 'are putting our country on a pretty dangerous path.'" ...
... John Boehner responded to President Obama with a "press conference" of his own: Jonathan Chait: "The most telling thing about Boehner’s remarks is their brevity. The Speaker spoke for about five minutes, responded briefly to one question, and bolted out the door. Obama's disquisition earlier today may have been long (over an hour) and professorial. But he was able to defend his position against questions, engage counterarguments, and marshal facts to support his position. Boehner couldn't do any of those things. So he did the only thing a man in his position could do: repeat a handful of false or crazy talking points and quickly flee the premises." ...
... Robert Costa of National Review: "Though much press has been given to a group of moderates who are feeling the heat from voters over the shutdown and pushing for a 'clean' continuing resolution (CR), Boehner has moved to quiet their concerns. Several Republicans listed in media whip counts over the past few days have recanted, and any building concerns about strategy and direction are staying private, for now." CW: You can read Costa for what the latest House demands are; I think they've changed since then. ...
... Tim Alberta of the National Journal on House Republicans' plans. His reporting seems to agree with Costa's. The House will schedule a screw-federal-employees-if-you-vote-against-it bill & a form-a-supercommittee bill. ...
... Burgess Everett of Politico: "Senior Senate Democrats on Tuesday morning accused House Speaker John Boehner and his Republican majority of executing a 'classic bait-and-switch operation' that led to a government shutdown. Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has for days now divulged details of a private meeting between him and Boehner in September in which Reid says Boehner promised to pass a bill funding the government at lower spending levels than preferred by Democrats on the condition that it not water down Obamacare. The Senate has sent such a bill over to the House, but Boehner has declined to put it on the floor and said if he did, it wouldn't have the votes to pass." ...
... Brian Beutler explains Harry Reid's debt limit strategy: "in the Senate, Majority Leader Harry Reid will press ahead with an old twist on a clean debt limit bill of his own. Under his plan, which was once Minority Leader Mitch McConnells plan, Congress would hand authority for increasing the debt limit to the president, but retain the power to block new borrowing with supermajority votes in both chambers. Moving quickly, while Boehner and his lieutenants dither, is a can't-lose move for Reid. If the plan fails — that is, if Republicans successfully filibuster the bill with a week before the Treasury Department's deadline -- markets will turn, and the pressure on the GOP to cave will increase. If it passes, Boehner will be isolated."
... Michael Tomasky of the Daily Beast: "Three Debt-Ceiling Lies You'll Hear From the GOP This Week: ... "1. A default wouldn't really be that bad.... 2. Obama is a big hypocrite because he voted against a debt-limit increase while Bush was president.... 3. The Democrats won't compromise, wah wah wah!" Tomasky elaborates on all three. ...
... Even Tom Friedman Is Smarter than John Boehner: "The reason so many mainstream Republican lawmakers want Obama to give something to Cruz & Co. is that they want to get out of this mess, but they're all afraid to stand up to the far-right fringe themselves -- with its bullying network of barking talk-show hosts and moneymen. But Obama shouldn't take them off the hook. Only Republicans can delegitimize the nihilistic madness at the base of their party." ...
... Ben White & Seung Min Kim of Politico: "... the debt limit deniers are back in force. You can spin all the scary tales of default you want and they won't believe you. They say if the $16.7 trillion borrowing limit is not raised by Oct. 17, as Treasury demands, then the U.S. government will still collect more than enough cash each month to keep paying bondholders. And if Uncle Sam can't pay Social Security recipients or anyone else while it forks over interest payments to the Chinese? 'Tough luck,' these people say. The nation spends too much as it is. Blocking a debt ceiling increase will provide the radical shock therapy the nation desperately needs to start living within its means." ...
... How to Undermine Your Own Extortion Plot. Steve Benen: "Let's say the default deniers are right. They're not, but let's just say they are for the sake of conversation, and the consequences of the United States ignoring its financial obligations would be minor. If that's true, why should President Obama and congressional Democrats pay a steep ransom to let the hostage go? ... We are, at the risk of sounding impolite, talking about a group of ignorant radicals, with an uninterrupted track record of failed predictions, who have the fate of the global economy in their hands. Good luck to us all." ...
... Josh Barro of Business Insider: "Waiting For Michele Bachmann To Stop Being Crazy Is Not A Strategy." ...
... Kevin Mahnken of the New Republic, in praise of former House speakerl Dick Gephardt: "If the Gephardt Rule were in effect today, there could be no risk of default when it comes time to raise the debt ceiling October 17, because its purpose was to obviate the debt-ceiling process entirely. Instituted in 1979, the rule empowered the House Clerk to apply the total amount of debt from the House's budget to a joint resolution that would then be sent to the Senate for approval. It combined the two steps of negotiating a budget and lifting the federal debt limit to pay for it." CW: Just one more reminder that Newt Gingrich's fingerprints are all over this crisis. Thanks again, CNN, for elevating him to stahdumb. ...
... ** AND Paul J. Kaplan, apparently a constituent of Jack Kingston (RTP-Ga.), writes a letter to his Congressman. This is a hoot, even if you're not a baseball fan.
Juliet Eilperin, et al., of the Washington Post: "Major insurers, state health-care officials and Democratic allies repeatedly warned the Obama administration in recent months that the new federal health-insurance exchange had significant problems, according to people familiar with the conversations. Despite those warnings and intense criticism from Republicans, the White House proceeded with an Oct. 1 launch." ...
... CW: There are many things that can & will go wrong with aspects of the ACA. The massive fail of the exchange Website, however, was entirely avoidable. And just plain stupid. I have read a good deal about amateurish coding errors (which should have been caught during testing), but it sounds as if the problem began with the program specs, not with the usual bugs that would occur in a complex system. It appears the designers didn't adjust for the Supreme Court's decision to allow states not to opt in with their own exchanges. With fewer than half the states on board, any dope could see the system would require twice the capacity originally anticipated. ...
... Robert Pear & Amy Goodnough of the New York Times: "While many people have been frustrated in their efforts to obtain coverage through the federal exchange, which is used by more than 30 states, consumers have had more success signing up for health insurance through many of the state-run exchanges, federal and state officials and outside experts say."
See No Evil. Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "The Supreme Court on Tuesday seemed prepared to strike down a part of federal campaign finance law left intact by its decision in Citizens United in 2010: overall limits on direct contributions from individuals to candidates. The justices seemed to divide along familiar ideological lines, and they articulated starkly different understandings of the role of money and free speech in American politics." ...
... Dana Milbank: "There’s a certain irony in the Supreme Court remaining open while much of the federal government is shut, for the high court created much of the dysfunction that cripples Washington today. The court has failed to undo the partisan redistricting that has left the House hopelessly polarized. It has furthered Americans' cynicism toward politics with nakedly political rulings such as Bush v. Gore. And, above all, it has created a campaign-finance system that is directly responsible for the rise of uncompromising leaders on both sides of the Capitol.... Now [the conservatives justices] are prepared to expand on their 2010 decision that caused an explosion of independent spending by allowing the wealthy to give about $3.5 million apiece to candidates and parties in each election cycle. Their rationale: They've already allowed the system to become so flooded with money that more won't hurt." ...
Less than 500 people can fund the whole shooting match. There is a very real risk both that the government will be run of, by and for those 500 people and that the public will perceive that the government is being run of, by and for those 500 people. -- Solicitor Gen. Donald Verrilli, arguing before the Court Tuesday ...
... Charles Pierce provides helpful commentary in a post titled "The Last Floodgate Opens." ...
... This, BTW, appears to be the intro to Charles Pierce's cover on Esquire Weekly. I haven't figured out how to access the whole essay, which is firewalled. But the intro is wordsmithery (a word this smithy thought she made up, but didn't) to behold.
There Are Still Heroes in Washington. Jonathan Easley of the Hill: "Eight Democratic lawmakers were arrested Tuesday while advocating for immigration reform at a sit-in on the National Mall in Washington. Reps. John Lewis (D-Ga.), Charles Rangel (D-N.Y.), Joseph Crowley (D-N.Y.), Luis Gutiérrez (D-Ill.), Keith Ellision (D-Minn.), Jan Schakowsky (D-Ill.), Raúl Grijalva (D-Ariz.) and Al Green (D-Texas) were among the estimated 200 people arrested by U.S. Capitol Police for protesting in the streets."
Living in Washington, D.C., in the midst of the greatest political crisis since Watergate four decades ago (a crisis for which -- unlike this one -- there was a Constitutional solution), Maureen Dowd devotes her column to the importance of changing the Washington Redskins' name to something less offensive.
Congressional Races 2013
Sam Wang of Princeton U.: "If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule." Thanks to Ken. W. -- and his son -- for the link.
Gubernatorial Race
Alexander Burns of Politico: "Democrat Terry McAuliffe has opened up a significant lead over Republican Ken Cuccinelli in the Virginia governor’s race amid broad public disapproval of the federal government shutdown, according to a Politico poll of the 2013 gubernatorial election. McAuliffe, the former national Democratic Party chairman, is now 9 points ahead of Cuccinelli, the current state attorney general, in a race that also includes Libertarian nominee Robert Sarvis. In the survey, McAuliffe drew support from 44 percent of Virginians versus 35 percent for Cuccinelli and 12 percent for Sarvis." ...
... CW: I think contributor James S. is right about this: "The problem with that Terry Mac-Cooch poll is Sarvis's 12 points. Third party candidate always seem to poll better than they score, and I'll bet those 12-pointers are on the kook end of the political rainbow."
News Ledes
New York Times: "This year’s Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to three researchers for computer simulations that enable the closer study of complex reactions like photosynthesis and combustion, and the design of new drugs. Martin Karplus of the University of Strasbourg in France and Harvard University, Michael Levitt of Stanford University, and Arieh Warshel of the University of Southern California share the honor...."
... Update: this AP story is more extensive.
New York Times: "The Libyan government in recent weeks tacitly approved two American commando operations in its country, according to senior American officials, one to capture a senior militant from Al Qaeda and another to seize a militia leader suspected of carrying out the Sept. 11, 2012, attacks on the United States diplomatic mission in Benghazi."
New York Times: "The Obama administration plans to suspend a substantial portion of American military aid to Egypt, several administration officials said Tuesday, after last summer's deadly crackdown on the Muslim Brotherhood and the recent surge in violence there."
CW: Not sure why the Los Angeles Times is just now getting around to publishing an obituary for Herman Wallace, but it is worth a read. The South is still the South; it's medieval culture persists. Who needs living history museums when you can time-travel to Dixie whenever you like?
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Reader Comments (20)
I believe Obama is going to roll over and give them (negotiate?) the chained-cpi on SS and god knows what else. Just remember, SS is a lifeline for most people (the working class in particular) and for many, the only one. The worst part is that it will have a cumulative effect as the years go by with recipients falling further and further behind inflation.
Times now says Obama will name Yellen to the Fed post. Maybe he's getting smarter as he gets farther from the Emanuel-Axelrod pole.
The problem with that Terry Mac-Cooch poll is Sarvis's 12 points. Third party candidate always seem to poll better than they score, and I'll bet those 12-pointers are on the kook end of the political rainbow. The gov't shutdown is going to help T-Mac, but GOTV efforts will help a whole of a lot more.
My son who sent this labeled it "silver lining?" I would like to think so. This meta-analysis suggest that gerrymandering or not, the House R's are digging themselves into an electoral hole.
In present circumstances, I didn't mind his gift of cause for a little optimism. Now if only the pollsters and analyzers know what they are doing... and the D's don't provide them with a shovel the R's can use to dig themselves out....
The election does closely follow the debt ceiling now only nine days away...which should help even those with a short memory who bother to vote.
http://election.princeton.edu/2013/10/08/the-risk-to-the-gop-house-majority/
Big Oops, but the bike ride cleared my head. U.S. House elections are every TWO years; except for any special elections in the offing, we'll have to wait for 2014 to see if the Princeton analysis noted above remains valid. Thanks, Marie, for not jumping on my stupidity. I can't handle good news, apparently; it makes me giddy.
THE HOOK
Pike, three inches long, perfect
Pike in all parts, green tigering the gold.
Killers from the egg: the malevolent aged grin.
They dance on the surface among the flies.
Ted Hughes––The Pike
On the front deck high up on the cedar sided ceiling
A backward S––solitary, attractive in its nakedness.
Does it yearn to be put upon?
No plant has ever graced this space.
My father’s fishing tackle had lots of hooks
That caught inside the soft palate of northern Pike
That lunged and fought for their small freedoms––
Seldom winning in those icy, cold lakes.
Some kind of allure, I think, fishing has–––
A sort of holding place for primitive impulses,
The violent capture, the position of predator.
Hooked again, we say––often these days,
Breathing still, but barely.
Apropos of Charles Pierce's piece on "The Reign of Morons," it is time once again to note that there is nothing new under the sun ... Alexander Pope's "Dunciad" nailed the morons in his day, and below are the final lines from his mock-epic. (Marie, not to worry, the copyright expired l-o-n-g ago.)
She comes! she comes! the sable Throne behold
Of Night Primæval, and of Chaos old!
Before her, Fancy's gilded clouds decay,
And all its varying Rain−bows die away.
Wit shoots in vain its momentary fires,
The meteor drops, and in a flash expires.
As one by one, at dread Medea's strain,
The sick'ning stars fade off th'ethereal plain;
As Argus' eyes by Hermes' wand opprest,
Clos'd one by one to everlasting rest;
Thus at her felt approach, and secret might,
Art after Art goes out, and all is Night.
See skulking Truth to her old Cavern fled,
Mountains of Casuistry heap'd o'er her head!
Philosophy, that lean'd on Heav'n before,
Shrinks to her second cause, and is no more.
Physic of Metaphysic begs defence,
And Metaphysic calls for aid on Sense!
See Mystery to Mathematics fly!
In vain! they gaze, turn giddy, rave, and die.
Religion blushing veils her sacred fires,
And unawares Morality expires.
Nor public Flame, nor private, dares to shine;
Nor human Spark is left, nor Glimpse divine!
Lo! thy dread Empire, Chaos! is restor'd;
Light dies before thy uncreating word:
Thy hand, great Anarch! lets the curtain fall;
And Universal Darkness buries All.
FINIS.
So in those 26 states governed by a Republicans that have refused to implement the ACA's provision for an expansion of Medicaid we will have these scenarios: . As the Times points out, "someone, black or white, making $11,000 a year frying chicken in a convenience store falls into the gap of making too much to qualify for the state’s existing Medicaid program but not enough to be subsidized under the new health care plan as the state defines it. For those who lose out, there’s what the Republican die-hards call tough love. That’s not love. It’s hate."
And these persons falling into this category, when sick, will go to the emergency room. Who will pay for this? The state? (and if this is the case they are shooting themselves in the foot) Surely not the Federal Government. The hospitals will be up in arms about this, I would think. I am confused about how this would work out. Anyone know the answer?
@P.D. Pepe: the same way they do now & always have done: they raise their rates across the board. Insurance companies, in turn, raise their premiums to cover the higher hospital costs. So the answer is, the insured will pay for the uninsured, just as we always have done.
(In truth, insurance companies negotiate with hospitals in the way individuals cannot. About a decade ago, I had a $27,000 hospital bill which my carrier negotiated down to $9,000. Had I been a person without insurance, the hospital would still have billed me $27,000, & had I not been able to pay, the hospital would have ruined my credit rating. Several years ago I disputed a hospital charge [for a procedure my surgeon agreed they didn't render]. Disputed charges are supposed to stay in the hospital till the dispute is resolved, but the hospital -- they said accidentally -- sent my bill to a collection agency. Those bastards threatened me for days, saying they would destroy me, blah-blah, even after the hospital administrator tried -- or claimed he tried -- to call them off.)
Marie
I haven't seen much discussion about the Trans-Pacific Partnership on here during the shutdown. Am I crazy to worry about this? http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/10/08/1245144/-U-S-Gov-t-Quietly-Pushes-to-Conclude-Trans-Pacific-Partnership-a-k-a-Corporate-Coup-D-Etat
Meanwhile, this is what is happening behind the government shutdown kabuki theater. "If you can imagine a totalitarian world where a tribunal of corporate-appointed lawyers could overrule the sovereign laws of nations, virtually at will (and on virtually any issue, whatsoever), you'd understand why so many people, from Senator Elizabeth Warren to Congressman Alan Grayson, along with many others, have been warning the U.S. public for many months why we should be aware of the secret negotiations underway concerning this highly-classified trade agreement....If the Trans-Pacific Partnership is passed in any semblance of the form that it's reported to be in now, we can: forget about stopping Keystone XL and reversing climate change; forget about putting a saddle on Wall Street; forget about controlling the spiraling costs of pharmaceuticals; forget about enabling social activism; forget about an open source world and universal Internet access; forget about the effort to put a lid on domestic and international surveillance; forget about a world free of genetically modified crops; and forget about significantly curtailing record-breaking income inequality." Sadly, this is partnership is being promoted by President Obama.
Thanks, Marie. Have been doing my own research on all this and my head is spinning. In a word: It's complicated.
When you accidentally drip stroganoff on your wrinkle-free cotton shirt/blouse, you can thank Ruth Benerito for making it easy to clean up. And, she did it as a lowly government employee, along with lots of other stuff. (See URL below).
When my son got married, I had one piece of advice -- buy a bunch of quality permapress cotton shirts for the office. It is amazing how it helps a marriage when you minimize ironing (yours, hers) and trips to the laundry.
Thanks, Ruth, for your government service.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/ruth-benerito-agriculture-dept-chemist-who-made-cotton-wrinkle-free-dies-at-97/2013/10/08/a0eab4ee-302f-11e3-8906-3daa2bcde110_story.html
Yes, Lisa, the TPP is another dangerous initiative in the drive toward the Great Collective, the corporate kind, that is fast approaching. One of its motivations, I'd guess, is to stand as a geo-political "free" enterprise bulwark against China, who is not part of the negotiations. Of course, what is "free" for multi-nationals is hardly free for common citizens. We have plenty of evidence of that, though it is blithely ignored by Those Who Know What's Best.
There is much to worry about here.
@Patrick; Thanks for the golden oldie from A.P. I once wrote a research paper that argued that A.P. was the great-great-great-great grandfather of rap entitled, "Straight dope on word master Pope".
It was not well received. I still stand by my conceit.
One a penny, two a penny, three a penny, four;
meter and pitch like an apple and the core;
Flesh of your fruit sounds so fine,
Now what's yours used to be mine.
The Truth is peeled by men of lies
fraction by fraction they find a compromise.
So set sun on this short day of light
winter comes, the world goes night.
"But Satan now is wiser than of yore
and tempts by making rich,
not making poor." AP, O.G. rapper.
@ Lisa. Nope, you're not crazy, though I don't know what individuals can do about the TPP because, as with other trade agreements, the fix is in. In August, Jim Hightower wrote an excellent piece on the horrors of the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Also, he tops it with a Dubya quote I hadn't heard:
"It seems that [Tony Blair & George W.] and French President Jacques Chirac had gotten into an economics discussion, after which George supposedly confided to Tony that he was decidedly unimpressed with Jacques' views: 'The problem with the French,' Bush scoffed, 'is that they don't have a word for 'entrepreneur.'"
Marie
For what it is worth, Elizabeth Warren has a petition on moveon.org to get an open debate on this treaty. http://petitions.moveon.org/sign/congress-dont-renew-fast.fb40?source=s.fb&r_by=2103040
@MB RE: that Dubya quote: The French took it (can't remember if it was a government agency or business) & created an absolutely brilliant video titled something like "We Don't Have a Word For It (Entrepreneur)—Nous Sommes N'Avez Pas... a word for it, a film which showcased the French created/built Airbus! The Concorde! the TGV! and many other impressive examples including pharmaceutical developments and consumer products..."—it was shown it at a large event in Boston that I attended some years ago. It was cleverly done. Bazinga! Brought down the house!
Oh, geez, here I am spreading stereotypical falsehoods. Snopes rates the claim that Dubya said the French don't have a word for "entrepreneur" to be false.
Sorry, Mr. President, Sir.
Marie
@Marie; Come on; you're a woman of the world; did you think for even one second George Witless Bush ever used the word, "entrepreneur"? He would'a said "bidness man"
@JJG: Absolutely right. I should have been skeptical from the git-go.
Marie