The Plot Thickens --
-- Or -- How Twitter Saved the World
In December or January, I wrote that the only way House Speaker John Boehner would ever get meaningful legislation through the House was to cooperate with House Democrats. He knows that & has resorted to the tactic some five times, most significantly in the "fiscal cliff" hoohah & in appropriating funds for Hurricane Sandy relief. A majority of Republicans opposed these bills, & they passed when most Democrats and only 30 or 40 Republicans voted for them. If we are to avoid a government shutdown next week and a federal debt default a few weeks hence, Boehner will have to rely on Democrats again.
As several contributors have pointed out here, defying his Tea Party caucus will cost Boehner his job.
But maybe not. This humorous tweet from Alex Seitz-Wald of Salon
inspired me to suggest, also in jest, that maybe Democrats could realize Demand 7. If Boehner riled his Chaos Caucus, they could try to unseat him, a move that would split House Republicans, leaving Democrats with enough votes to put Pelosi on top. However, if Wikipedia is trustworthy, the House has almost always chosen its speaker by majority vote, only once -- in the 19th century -- resorting to accepting a candidate who attained only a plurality.
But there is a more plausible scenario along these same lines. It goes like this. We know Boehner is trying to figure out how to simultaneously (a) keep his job & (b) avoid national and international catastrophe.
Besides actually giving a damn about the country, he is infuriated not just by teabagger actions but also by teabagger attitude. Tweets like this push him over the edge.
Boehner meets with Nancy Pelosi, & the two of them agree on an acceptable continuing resolution and on a "clean" debt ceiling bill. The bills pass the House with Democrats & a few dozen Republicans voting in favor, a la the "fiscal cliff" votes.
As a result, the Teabaggers revolt & attempt to oust Boehner. Quite a few Republicans will support Boehner, but not enough to give him a majority -- unless he can find some votes someplace else.
Hmm. Boehner goes back to Pelosi (it's possible they had this discussion in their first hypothetical meeting), and the two forge an agreement. Pelosi guarantees Boehner enough Democratic votes to beat back the Tea Party insurgency. Boehner agrees to ditch the "Hastert Rule" -- that is, the "rule" that he will only bring legislation to the floor that a majority of Republicans support. He further agrees to specifics on some pending legislation: like bringing up an omnibus immigration bill that includes a path to citizenship (see Seitz-Wald). A budget resolution that ends sequestration. Oh, SNAP. A farm bill that restores/increases the food stamps program. (You forgot that one, Alex.) Maybe replace a few of the more militant committee heads (buh-bye, Darrell Issa).
The Boehner-Pelosi agreement remains secret except to a few top dogs. The clueless teabaggers mount their no-confidence coup. At the last minute, Pelosi urges the Democratic caucus to vote for Boehner. Most Democrats & some Republicans vote for Boehner. He wins the day. The teabaggers are not only blindsided; this new House dynamic completely neutralizes them. They have no power.
Yes, this scenario also will leave Boehner as a very weak speaker, dependent upon the other party for passage of every bill. It assumes Boehner would rather be a weak speaker than an ex-speaker. In order to get enough Republicans to vote for the bills that come up under this scenario, the bills will necessarily be more conservative than we would like. But some progress is better than no progress at all.
Mind you, I'm not predicting this is what will happen. But you can bet such a series of events has crossed Boehner's mind. And Pelosi's. It is not entirely implausible. And there will by joy in all the land (except maybe in some pockets of "real America").
Reader Comments (3)
Deliciously devious, it would be worth the price of more conservative legislation than ideal just to watch teabagger heads exp;lode. A side benefit might be to resuscitate a sane version of the gop (although the wackos still control their primary process, so unlikely) but it would make the next year - and probably the post 2014 election a bit easier to take.
Marie, love your scenario and am cheering my ass off for such a solution. Pretty sure Pelosi could pull it off, depends on how pissed Boehner is and if he can lay off the booze long enough to keep his emotions under control. He is a very sloppy drunk.
As long as we are speculating, how does this one strike you?
I read that Glenn Greenwald is working on a NSA story about government assasinations. He might have even said "Obama assasinations". His timing will be impecable (sarcasm) if it hits around the third day of a government shutdown. That ought to guarantee that all the fury will be directed at Obama thereby getting closer to Glenn's plan that Dems abandon the party (and endure a little "short-term" pain) in order to give birth to a new third party.