The Commentariat -- Feb. 15, 2016

January 20, 2009, a few moments before Barack Obama took the oath of office, Photo by Pete Souza.... CW: Let us take a moment out of our busy Presidents' Day buying sheets or shoes (or in my case, going to the dump) to be thankful that on this particular Presidents' Day, we have a president who is pretty, pretty good. Let us also hope that today is not the last Presidents Day we can say that.

Julie Makinen of the Los Angeles Times: "President Obama on Monday will kick off a two-day summit with 10 Southeast Asian leaders at Sunnylands in Rancho Mirage, the first-ever such meeting on U.S. soil. The White House is framing the confab with the leaders of the Assn. of Southeast Asian Nations, or ASEAN, as another key step in Obama's effort to 'rebalance' foreign policy toward the Asia-Pacific, shoring up U.S. economic and security ties in the region -- and asserting American leadership -- as China exerts its military and financial might there too."

His hands were sort of almost folded on top of the sheets. The sheets weren't rumpled up at all. It was just like he was taking a nap. He just went to sleep and didn't wake up. -- Resort owner John Poindexter, who found Antonin Scalia's body

... Jason Whitely of WFAA, in USA Today: "The death certificate for U.S. Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia will list myocardial infarction -- a heart attack -- as the official cause of death, Presidio County Judge Cinderela Guevara told WFAA on Sunday." ...

... Molly Hennessy-Fiske of the Los Angeles Times describes "Scalia's last moments on a Texas ranch." ...

... Eva Moravec, et al., of the Washington Post: "... as details of Scalia's sudden death trickled in Sunday, it appeared that the hours afterward were anything but orderly." The judge who declared him dead, by phone, "rebutted a report by a Dallas TV station that quoted her as saying that Scalia had died of 'myocardial infarction.' In an interview with The Washington Post, she said she meant only that his heart had stopped."

... CW: I thought we'd hear soon enough that President Obama killed Justice Scalia, & sure enough, we have. But as digby points out, there's a bit of a discussion over there in Right Wing World as to which "liberal" killed Scalia -- Obama or some Clinton. I wonder why Obama didn't do so sooner or some Clinton didn't do it later. Whoever the assassin may be, his/her timing seems off. I think I'll pick Bill Clinton, whose is now trying to cover his tracks by claiming, "I always kind of liked" Justice Scalia. I've read here & there that John Poindexter, who owned the Cibolo Creek ranch, and found Scalia's body, has contributed to Democrats. ...

... Dahlia Lithwick of Slate: "Whether you choose to think of [Antonin Scalia] as a hero or a hater, a fully-realized ideological visionary, or a caricature of an arch-conservative..., for years, the law and the other justices will shadow box with him, reckon with his vast intellectual legacy, and perhaps -- if the arc of the universe indeed bends toward tolerance and fairness and generosity -- eventually put him to rest."

Carl Hulse & Mark Landler of the New York Times: "An epic Washington political battle took shape on Sunday after the death of Justice Antonin Scalia as Senate Republicans dug in and refused to act on any Supreme Court nomination by President Obama. But the White House vowed to name a nominee within weeks." ...

... Paul Krugman: "Once upon a time, the death of a Supreme Court justice wouldn't have brought America to the edge of constitutional crisis. But that was a different country, with a very different Republican Party. In today's America, with today's G.O.P., the passing of Antonin Scalia has opened the doors to chaos.... If divided government persists, it's really hard to see how we avoid growing chaos. Maybe we should all start wearing baseball caps that say, 'Make America governable again.'" ...

     ... CW: As usual, Krugman uses his column, which is mostly about the nutso GOP, to take a swipe at Bernie Sanders. Maybe he should start wearing a baseball cap that says, "Make America Clinton's again." ...

... ** Paul Waldman: "Republicans are all in agreement that they should refuse to allow Barack Obama to fill Scalia's seat, on the grounds that he's Barack Obama. But they could well refuse to fill the seat even for the next president.... If that sounds unlikely, then you might want to familiarize yourself with today's Republican Party. They haven't just grown more ideologically conservative in recent years, they've also grown more procedurally radical. Again and again, they've decided that the system of formal and informal norms that make the government work can be discarded if it becomes inconvenient. Shut down the government? You bet! Filibuster every bill more consequential than the naming of National Earwax Awareness Week? Sure! Bring America to the brink of defaulting on its debt? Why not!... the next president could get to fill two, three, or even four seats. Or maybe she won't get to fill any at all." ...

... Never Let the Facts or the Constitution Get in the Way. New York Times Editors: "The latest Republican talking point is that for 80 years it has been 'standard practice' not to confirm any Supreme Court nominee in an election year. Besides being untrue -- Justice Anthony Kennedy was confirmed by a Democratic Senate in 1988 -- the claim actually insults Justice Scalia, whose originalist, text-based approach to the Constitution would surely have found room for one of a president's explicit constitutional obligations." ...

... David Savage & David Lauter of the Los Angeles Times: "As President Obama moves to replace the late Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, the vow by Senate Republicans to block any nominee is providing him with a powerful incentive to focus on more liberal candidates." ...

... Robert Barnes & Terri Rupar of the Washington Post: "Justice Antonin Scalia's sudden death Saturday flips the dynamics of the Supreme Court and undermines conservative hopes for far-reaching victories on important social controversies such as abortion, immigration and unions." ...

... Emily Bazelon of the New York Times: "The election is the Constitution's answer for preventing any long-term crisis. The voters will get to punish or reward whichever party they choose. But a year or more of a Supreme Court vacancy would expose the creaks in the joints of the Constitution.... If Supreme Court justices served 18-year terms instead of life tenure, their appointments could be staggered so that each president would get two. The process would be more predictable and more orderly. But the chances for that kind of constitutional amendment are probably lower than the odds of the next justice sailing to his or her confirmation. Hardball, here we come." ...

... E. J. Dionne: This fall, Americans will not just be picking a new chief executive. They will be setting the course of the court of last resort for a generation." ...

... Linda Hirshman in the Washington Post: "President Obama has stacked the lower circuit courts with Democrats.... Fate has handed him the opportunity of any presidency -- to swing the balance of the Supreme Court from conservative to liberal.... Leaders [of the Senate], and also most GOP presidential candidates, are already making clear that they intend to block Obama. But they may not realize that leaving Scalia's seat vacant plays right into his hands.... A divided court leaves lower court rulings in place. And the lower courts are blue.... That's why the effect of an equally divided court has enormous potential to strengthen Obama's hand in dealing with the Republican Senate.... If Obama signals that he's willing to take advantage of the situation by taking actions like passing new environmental rules or moving for rehearing in the pending cases, he'll put pressure on the Senate by getting what he wants without his court pick." ...

... OR How about This: Recess! Lyle Dennniston of ScotusBlog: "President Obama may ponder the possibility of putting on the Court a new Justice of his choosing, to serve temporarily. The problem, though, is that less than two years ago, the Supreme Court severely narrowed the flexibility of such temporary appointment power, and strengthened the Senate's capacity to frustrate such a presidential maneuver. It is true that one of the Justices regarded as a giant on the Court's history, William J. Brennan, Jr., actually began his lengthy career with just such a short-term appointment. The chances of that happening again today seem to have diminished markedly." In an update, Denniston notes, "The Senate is currently in recess until February 22. The recess began on Friday. Whether this opens an opportunity for a recess appointment depends upon how Senate leaders interpret an adjournment resolution approved last Friday.  That will determine whether it will meet for brief activity during the recess, which could close that opportunity."

The American people should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President. -- Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, arguing that the Constitution does not require the Senate to do its job if the POTUS is black or something

... CW Update: Contributor David highlights a Facebook post by Sen. Elizabeth Warren, that, as David writes, "pretty much sums up the situation." As I don't think I can isolate Facebook posts & as public officials' remarks are not copyrighted, I'm republishing her post in full:

The sudden death of Justice Scalia creates an immediate vacancy on the most important court in the United States.

Senator McConnell is right that the American people should have a voice in the selection of the next Supreme Court justice. In fact, they did -- when President Obama won the 2012 election by five million votes.

Article II Section 2 of the Constitution says the President of the United States nominates justices to the Supreme Court, with the advice and consent of the Senate. I can't find a clause that says '...except when there's a year left in the term of a Democratic President.'

Senate Republicans took an oath just like Senate Democrats did. Abandoning the duties they swore to uphold would threaten both the Constitution and our democracy itself. It would also prove that all the Republican talk about loving the Constitution is just that -- empty talk. ...

... Charles Pierce: Of course, this is all my bollocks. In 2012, the 'American people' decided that Barack Obama should appoint justices to the Supreme Court to fill any vacancies that occurred between January of 2013 and January of 2017. Period. Just because Mitch McConnell is a complete chickenshit in the face of his caucus doesn't obviate that fact.... This is now a presidential election to decide the course and purpose of government for the next 30 years. That makes it the most consequential election of recent times." ...

... Jeffrey Toobin of the New Yorker: "Scalia brought with him the concept of 'originalism' -- that the Constitution should be interpreted as its eighteenth-century framers understood it. In practical terms, originalism gives constitutional sanction to conservative politics. It amounts to no protection for abortion rights, no recognition of gay rights, and no sanction for affirmative action or protective legislation to benefit racial minorities and women.... In interpreting laws, he was the leading spokesperson for 'textualism,' the idea that, when interpreting laws, courts should look not to legislative history, or congressional 'intent,' but rather only to the words of the law itself. While originalism remains controversial..., textualism won support from nearly all his colleagues (all except Stephen Breyer). This means that the Justices will limit the reach of laws to their precise terms, expanding the court's power over Congress."

I have no illusions that your man will nominate someone who shares my orientation, but I hope he sends us someone smart.... Let me put a finer point on it: I hope he sends us Elena Kagan. -- Justice Antonin Scalia, to then-presidential advisor David Axelrod, at the White House Correspondents' Dinner, 2009. President Obama nominated Judge Sonia Sotomayor.

Wesley Lowery & Kevin Stankiewicz of the Washington Post: Black Lives Matter activists fight racist policies & depression, a condition that can be exacerbated by the realities their activism highlights. Last Monday, Ohio Black Lives Matter activist MarShawn McCarrel killed himself on the steps of the state's capitol building.

Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. Driftglass reports on the Sunday morning showz. Featuring "Ron 'Severe Dementia' Fournier" & "the still-inexplicably-employed neocon hobgoblin, Bill Kristol."

Presidential Race

Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: "In the battle for Nevada, which will hold its Democratic caucuses on Saturday, the fight is largely being waged by young Latinos, many of them immigrants, who by the hundreds are seizing on the chance to focus attention on the hardships they have faced and to play a potentially pivotal role in electing the next president.... With Republicans pledging to deport millions of people who are in the country illegally, and Donald J. Trump promising to build a wall to keep rapists and criminals from sneaking across the border from Mexico, volunteers and campaign workers describe the Nevada Democratic contest, in starkly personal terms, as a chance to make a powerful statement about the place they occupy in American society.... Mrs. Clinton's Nevada operation is building on a foundation laid eight years ago, when she defeated Barack Obama in the popular vote (though he won the delegate count).... Mr. Sanders and Mrs. Clinton will both appear Thursday in a televised forum on Telemundo and MSNBC.... Mrs. Clinton's huge advantage in name recognition among Latinos continues to challenge Mr. Sanders's campaign here."

Revolt of the Sandernistas: Daniel Strauss of Politico: "Pro-Sanders threads on Reddit have been burning up with calls for action [against the Democratic party's superdelegate system], with some supporters even reaching out to superdelegates (who are typically Democratic governors, members of Congress, and top state and national party leaders) to lobby them on the Vermont senator's behalf. Progressive groups are also taking a stand: There are currently two petition campaigns designed to urge superdelegates to reflect the popular vote, rather than the sentiment of party elites. In one of them, MoveOn.org activists are targeting undecided and committed Hillary Clinton superdelegates with a clear message: wait until all the votes are counted before throwing support behind a candidate."

Brian Stelter of CNN: "Saturday night's GOP demolition derby on CBS was the highest rated primary debate since December, according to Nielsen." ...

Wrong is considered right and right is considered wrong. -- Marco Rubio in closing remarks, GOP debate Feb. 13, inadvertently describing Right Wing World

... Charles Pierce: "During the ninth debate of the Republican candidates for president, we saw actual facts booed (by my count) three times before the first commercial break. We saw two sons of Cuban emigres duke it out over who can make the lives of Hispanic immigrants more miserable. We saw a vulgar talking yam dare to tell the truth about C-Plus Augustus while standing next to his brother, and we later saw the vulgar talking yam call Ted Cruz the biggest liar he's ever seen. And still, after it was over, serious people got on the electric teevee machine to talk about who had the best night, and who won and who lost, and not one of them mentioned the obvious fact that one of our two major political parties suffered a complete mental meltdown on national television." ...

... Elizabeth Bruenig of the New Republic pegs "the moment CBS News lost control" of the debate. "'We're in danger of driving this into the dirt,' moderator John Dickerson warned, but of course the bus was already deep in the mud":

... Robert Costa & Philip Rucker of the Washington Post zero in on Pierce's "obvious fact": "A day after a debate marked by a series of personal, petty exchanges -- and a day before former president George W. Bush was set to make a high-profile return to the national scene -- Republicans were grappling with their core beliefs on a host of issues, as well as the image they were broadcasting to the country. The infighting was ignited at the debate Saturday night by front-runner Donald Trump, who was unrelenting in his criticism of both how well the 43rd president kept America safe before and after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks and of the hawkish Republican worldview in general.... The increasingly harsh discussions ... amount to an existential crisis within the Republican Party and reflect the growing influence of non-ideological, populist voters who have flocked in particular to Trump's nationalist 'Make America Great Again' message." ...

... Here, belatedly, is Driftglass's liveblog of the debate (I looked for it earlier). CW: Increasingly, it is nearly impossible to tell Driftglass's snark from the actual transcript. The following, ferinstance, is what those bozos really said.

Look, I won the lottery when I was born 63 years ago, looked up, and I saw my mom. My mom is the strongest woman I know. -- Jeb!

She should be running. -- Donald

... CW: As far as I can determine, the debate can be summed up: "Yo' mama!" "Liar, liar." "Am not!" "Are too." ...

... Rasputin-o'er-Hudson. Jonathan Chait: During the Saturday night Republican debate in South Carolina, Donald Trump committed GOP heresy: "Not only did he call the Iraq War a failure, but when Jeb Bush insisted his brother kept the country safe, Trump pointed out that the 9/11 attack happened on [George W.] Bush's watch, and that Bush lied about the existence of weapons of mass destruction, and then returned to the point again.... By the normal standards of politics, Trump swallowed enough poison to kill himself ten times over. If he survives, it will be the strongest evidence that he has forged a connection with Republican voters that resides beyond any plane visible to the rest of us." ...

... Jimmy LaSalvia, a self-described Republican, in Salon: The RNC-picked establishment audience at the presidential debate booed Trump repeatedly, but according to Matt Drudge's unscientific poll, Trump won the debate. The Drudge wing of the party now outnumbers the dwindling establishment/RNC wing. "If Trump can blame 9-11 on establishment icon George W. Bush and then win the South Carolina primary, then we'll know that the old Republican Party just doesn't exist anymore. If that doesn't sink his campaign, then nothing will, and he will be the GOP nominee. We'll know for sure on Saturday, but the Drudge Poll today has given us a hint."

Janell Ross of the Washington Post explains why Marco Rubio (& Jeb!) often speak Spanish to constituents & why Ted Cruz does not. CW: Ross is a bit long-winded, but my own observations comport with her thesis: it's a cultural thing. There's no shame in speaking Spanish in Florida; in the Southwest, it still can be taboo. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Ben Carson Believes Everything He Reads. And everything he reads is the Right Wing News. Gregory Krieg of CNN: "Ben Carson referenced a line he said came from Joseph Stalin, a quote that's believed to have gained prominence as a conservative social media meme, during his closing statement at Saturday night's Republican debate. 'Joseph Stalin said if you want to bring America down you have to undermine three things -- our spiritual life, our patriotism, and our morality,' Carson said.... The mythbusters at Snopes.com, in a recently updated review, state that the line, which Carson is reported to have used before, have little evidence to back up that it came from Stalin. The CNN Reality Check team rated its attribution to Stalin as 'false.'" CW: Bear in mind that Carson's fake quote came during his prepared remarks; it was not an ad lib or heat-of-date moment in which one understandably might make a mistake. His research material is right-wing fantasies.

Senate Races

Nate Cohn of the New York Times: "The impending battle over replacing Antonin Scalia on the Supreme Court will undoubtedly loom over this year's presidential contest. But it may have an even larger role in an often overlooked 2016 election contest: the fight for control of the Senate.... The Democrats aren't favored to retake the Senate. They would need to gain five seats (or four if they retain the presidency). But they have a real opportunity to win because a large number of Republicans from competitive or Democratic-leaning states are up for re-election. These Republican senators could have strong electoral incentives to support Mr. Obama's Supreme Court nominee -- otherwise, their opposition will be used against them." ...

... Burgess Everett of Politico: "New Hampshire Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican from a state that supported President Obama, announced on Sunday evening that she opposes confirmation of a new Supreme Court nominee before the election."

Beyond the Beltway

Allegedly, Eliot Spitzer Is Still Eliot Spitzer. Jonathan Dienst & Tim Stelloh of NBC News: "Authorities are investigating allegations that disgraced former New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer assaulted a woman at a Manhattan hotel, sources told NBC News. A spokeswoman for Spitzer denied the report. Spitzer, who resigned from office in 2008 following revelations of his involvement in a prostitution ring, is accused of choking a woman in her mid-20s at the Plaza Hotel, the sources said. They said there may be video of Spitzer going up to the hotel with the woman."

The Commentariat -- Feb. 14, 2016

Afternoon Update:

Janell Ross of the Washington Post explains why Marco Rubio (& Jeb!) often speak Spanish to constituents & why Ted Cruz does not. CW: Ross is a bit long-winded, but my own observations comport with her thesis: it's a cultural thing. There's no shame in speaking Spanish in Florida; in the Southwest, it still can be taboo.

*****

His hands were sort of almost folded on top of the sheets. The sheets weren't rumpled up at all. It was just like he was taking a nap. He just went to sleep and didn't wake up. -- Resort owner John Poindexter, who found Antonin Scalia's body

Gary Martin & Guillermo Contreras of the San Antonio (Texas) Express-News: "Associate Justice Antonin Scalia was found dead of apparent natural causes Saturday on a luxury resort in West Texas, federal officials said. Scalia, 79, was a guest at the Cibolo Creek Ranch, a resort in the Big Bend region south of Marfa.... A federal official who asked not to be named said there was no evidence of foul play and it appeared that Scalia died of natural causes." ...

... Adam Liptak of the New York Times: "Justice Antonin Scalia, whose transformative legal theories, vivid writing and outsize personality made him a leader of a conservative intellectual renaissance in his three decades on the Supreme Court, was found dead on Saturday at a resort in West Texas, according to a statement from Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. He was 79.... The cause of death was not immediately released." ...

... CW: My general policy, here & in life, is not to speak ill of the recently dead, out of respect for their families. I do not hold contributors to that standard. This courtesy does not extend to the deceased's philosophical allies, who even now must be conjuring conspiracy theories that place the cause of death upon a certain Kenyan-born emperor who should under no circumstances be allowed to appoint a successor. The San Antonio Express-News reports that Justice Scalia was with a party of about 40 people. It will be interesting to find out who-all was in that party, so we can develop risible conspiracy theories of our own. ...

... Mark Landler & Peter Baker of the New York Times: "Within hours of Justice Scalia's death, both sides began laying the groundwork for what could be a titanic confirmation struggle fueled by ideological interest groups. The surprise opening also jolted the presidential campaign hours before a Republican debate in South Carolina, shifting the conversation toward the priorities each candidate would have in making such a selection." ...

... The New York Times is running "live updates" of developments related to Justice Scalia's death. They should have thunk up another headline for the page. @8:48 pm ET: "President Obama, in his first public comments after Justice Antonin Scalia's death, announced that he would nominate a replacement, overriding Republicans' contentions that any nomination should wait until after the next president takes office":

... Dylan Matthews of Vox names some likely candidates for nomination. ...

     @7:22 pm: "Ben Carson, who is seeking the Republican nomination for president, joined other members of his party in arguing that President Obama should not nominate a successor to Justice Antonin Scalia."

     @ 7:11 pm: "The Thurmond Rule -- an unwritten rule, not legally binding -- holds that a judicial nominee should not be confirmed in the months leading up to an election. It has its origins in June 1968, when Senator Strom Thurmond, Republican of South Carolina, blocked President Lyndon B. Johnson's appointment of Justice Abe Fortas as chief justice." ...

     ...@ 7:03 pm: "Jeb Bush ... said on Saturday that Justice Antonin Scalia ... 'was my favorite justice'.... Mr. Bush declined to repeat calls made by other Republican candidates, including Senators Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, for Justice Scalia's seat on the Supreme Court to remain vacant until a new president was sworn into office in 2017." ...

     ...@ 6:54 pm: "Harry Reid, the Senate minority leader and Democrat of Nevada, urged President Obama to nominate a successor to Justice Antonin Scalia as soon as possible. Mr. Reid released a statement that forcefully pushed back at Republican arguments that the Supreme Court seat should remain vacant until after a new president was elected." ...

     ... @ 6:40 pm: "Senator Mitch McConnell, Republican of Kentucky and the Senate majority leader, backing the sentiments of Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, said in a statement that the next president, not President Obama, should appoint a successor to Justice Antonin Scalia." CW: I'd say we have a Constitutional crisis a'coming in our near future. ...

... Robert Barnes writes Justice Scalia's obituary for the Washington Post. ...

... The Washington Post also is running "live updates & reactions" to Justice Scalia's death. @ 8:15 pm ET: "... Hillary Clinton praised Scalia's service to his country in a statement posted on Twitter, criticizing Republicans who in the hours since Scalia's death have called for his replacement to be chosen by the next president." ...

     ... @ 8:12 pm: "'The president has said he will send a nominee to the Senate,' Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (D-Vt.), ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, told The Post a telephone interview Saturday night." ...

... Robert Barnes: "The death of Justice Antonin Scalia on Saturday plunged the Supreme Court and the nation's politics into turmoil, and an immediate partisan battle began over whether President Obama should be allowed to nominate his successor. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) said in a statement that the Senate controlled by his party should not confirm a replacement for Scalia until after the election.... Sen. Patrick J. Leahy (Vt.), the ranking Democrat on the Judiciary Committee, joined [Minority Leader Harry] Reid [D-Nev.] in saying that the court should not go a year without a full array of justices.... Scalia's shocking death also creates doubt about the outcome of a Supreme Court term that was filled with some of the most controversial issues facing the nation: abortion, affirmative action, the rights of religious objectors to the contraceptive mandate in the Affordable Care Act, and the president's powers on immigration and deportation.

[Justice Scalia] died while on a hunting trip in Texas. The Supreme Court did not reveal the cause of death. The Associated Press reported that Scalia died at a private residence in the Big Bend area of West Texas. The service's spokeswoman, Donna Sellers, says Scalia had retired for the evening and was found dead Saturday morning after he did not appear for breakfast. Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. officially announced Scalia's death after it was reported by news outlets in Texas. ...

... Tom Goldstein of ScotusBlog has more on "what happens to this [Supreme Court] term's cases.... Votes that the Justice cast in cases that have not been publicly decided are void. Of course, if Justice Scalia's vote was not necessary to the outcome -- for example, if he was in the dissent or if the majority included more than five Justices -- then the case will still be decided, only by an eight-member Court." ...

... Ian Millhiser has more on the specific cases before the Court & how decisions could play out. ...

... Jonathan Chait: "The immediate and easily foreseeable impact [of Scalia's death] is staggering. Last week, the Supreme Court issued a stay delaying the implementation of Obama's Clean Power Plan. The stay indicated that a majority of the justices foresee a reasonably high likelihood that they would ultimately strike down Obama's plan, which could jeopardize the Paris climate agreement and leave greenhouse gasses unchecked. Without Scalia on the Court, the odds of this drop to virtually zero. The challenge is set to be decided by a D.C. Circuit panel composed of a majority of Democratic appointees, which will almost certainly uphold the regulations. If the plan is upheld, it would require a majority of the Court to strike it down. With the Court now tied 4-4, such a ruling now seems nearly impossible. Even if the Senate does not confirm any successor, then, Scalia's absence alone reshapes the Court." ...

... Richard Mayhew, in Balloon Juice, also has a useful piece on the politics of upcoming (or already decided but not published Supreme) cases, an eight-person count & the nomination dynamic. ...

     ... CW: I'd like to remind readers that three of the best tactical politicians in Washington, D.C., are Mitch McConnell, Harry Reid & Barack Obama. If there is a way to effectively force a vote on a Supreme Court nominee, I think Reid & Obama can figure it out. Should it require the threat of publication of photos of McConnell & Chuck Grassley in flagrante with a distinct whiff of S&M, so be it. ...

... Rick Hasen: "... this is the moment. It is the beginning of the most important civil rights debate of our time." ...

... New York Times Editors: "The question now is whether the Senate will honor Justice Scalia's originalist view of the Constitution by allowing President Obama to appoint a successor, and providing its advice and consent in good faith. Or will the Republicans be willing to create a constitutional crisis and usurp the authority of the president to ensure that the Supreme Court functions as one branch of this government?" CW: I believe we know the answer. ...

... Libertarian Conor Friedersdorf of the Atlantic lays out why Constitutional scholar Ted Cruz's call to block any nominee is contrary to the Senate's Constitutional duties: "There is no agreed upon standard of what legitimate advice and consent entails. But any standard that rejects a nomination before it is even made fails the laugh test. Few truly believe that the Framers would regard 'I want to wait until the next president is chosen' as a legitimate reason to block a Supreme Court appointment." ...

... CW: Seems to me that Ted & Marco have already declared themselves ineligible to vote on any Senate business. Like Obama, Marco is an incontrivertible lame duck: both are leaving their jobs next January. Ted is a declared lame duck: he intends to take another job come late January. If the president is proscribed from doing his Constitutional duty under some theory of lame-duckiness, then so are senators who wish themselves out of the Senate. Pennsylvania Avenue is a two-way street.

... Steve M.: "... Republicans are largely going to have message discipline. Many of them are going to argue, in all seriousness, that Obama is a lame duck, and therefore not really president, so he should let the next president replace Scalia. They'll say that we're in the midst of a campaign to choose his successor, so even offering up a nominee would be the height of arrogance. The Constitution says nothing of the sort, but these self-styled worshipers of our founding documents will talk as if Obama is betraying American values just by doing his job."

... Benjamin Mullin of Poynter: "How the San Antonio Express-News broke news of Scalia's death." ...

... Alan Blinder & Manny Fernandez of the New York Times describe the luxury Cibolo Creek Ranch where Justice Scalia died.

Presidential Race

Kevin Drum: The death of Justice Scalia has created what now will be "the most important issue in the presidential campaign. Appointing Supreme Court justices has always been one of the biggest reasons to care about who wins in November, but it's stayed mostly under the radar until now. No longer. Both sides will go ballistic over this, and the Supreme Court will suddenly seem like the most vital presidential power ever. If you thought things were getting nasty before this, just wait. You ain't seen nothing yet."

Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: "The Republican presidential candidates faced off Saturday night in a contentious final debate before next week's South Carolina primary, sparring about immigration and foreign policy and attacking one another personally in an affair that verged on mean-spirited." CW: Cruz, Trump & Rubio called each other (& George W. Bush) liars -- nice soundbytes for the general election. And of course, they're all right; they are liars. ...

... Dylan Matthews has quite a helpful summary/analysis of the debate. With clips (which don't seem to load). ...

... Ted Cruz is such a good debater, he can rebut Marco Rubio in a language Marco says Ted doesn't speak:

     ... Cruz has said his mastery of Spanish "is lousy."

... Philip Rucker & Jenna Johnson the Washington Post: "The six remaining Republican presidential candidates sparred with ferocity over U.S. foreign policy in a debate here Saturday night, with front-runner Donald Trump savaging former president George W. Bush's intervention in Iraq, which helped spawn more than a decade of instability in the Middle East." ...

... Matt Yglesias of Vox: "... after months of watching Trump say things that are racist, absurd, patently false, or all three at once the Republican Party establishment decided to stomp on him for saying things that are basically true.... It was a bizarre and telling moment, in which the battered forces of the Republican establishment finally picked themselves up off the floor specifically in order to defend some of its least-defensible conduct of the 21st Century."

Alan Rappeport: "The two-hour [Republican] debate airs live on CBS beginning at 9 p.m. Eastern time." Rappeport reports on other ways to see or hear the debate. CW: I'll be damned if I join the virtual audience. ...

     ... CW: Apparently there is so little interest in the debate that none of the major U.S. newspapers is liveblogging it. Here's the Guardian's liveblog.

New York Times: "The Republican presidential candidates face off Saturday in Greenville, S.C., at 9 p.m. Eastern time, one week before the state's primary. There will be one candidate fewer on stage because Gov. Chris Christie, whose debate performance one week ago blunted the momentum of Senator Marco Rubio, dropped out after the New Hampshire primary. We asked political reporters for The New York Times what they would be looking for in the debate...."

** Today's History Lesson. Ben Fountain of the Guardian on political hucksters Pappy O'Daniel & Joe McCarthy. For some strange reason, the Guardian also posts photos of Donald Trump & Ted Cruz within the text. (The Coen brothers moved O'Daniel to Mississippi & made O'Daniel's opponent the "broom-sweeping reformer"):

Oh, what the hell. Tim Blake Nelson & the Soggy Bottom Boys:

Nicholas Confessore & Yamiche Alcindor of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton set out on Saturday to blunt one of Bernie Sanders's most potent arguments against her, attacking the Vermont senator as a one-note rival whose relentless focus on Wall Street excess and exorbitant political spending would do little to improve the lives of Americans. The line of attack, laid out at a rally [in Henderson, Nevada,] with labor union members and amplified more pointedly by a video Mrs. Clinton's campaign released on Saturday morning, comes as she is seeking to sow doubts about Mr. Sanders's readiness for office and defend herself as a more reliable and proven fighter for Democratic interests." ...

... Steven Myers of the New York Times: "The State Department released 551 more emails from the personal server of Hillary Clinton on Saturday, including 84 with some or all of the messages blocked out because they contained information that has now been deemed classified. Three of those are classified 'secret.'" ...

... ** Maureen Dowd: "The interesting thing about the spectacle of older women trying to shame younger ones on behalf of Hillary is that Hillary and Bill killed the integrity of institutional feminism back in the '90s -- with the help of Albright and Steinem.... Seeing Albright, the first female secretary of state, give cover to President Clinton was a low point in women's rights. As was the New York Times op-ed by Steinem, arguing that Lewinsky's will was not violated, so no feminist principles were violated. What about Clinton humiliating his wife and daughter and female cabinet members? What about a president taking advantage of a gargantuan power imbalance with a 22-year-old intern? What about imperiling his party with reckless behavior that put their feminist agenda at risk?... [Feminists have made an] ugly Faustian bargain with the Clintons, not only on the sex cover-ups but the money grabs: You can have our bright public service side as long as you accept our dark sketchy side. Young women today, though, are playing by a different set of rules. And they don't like the Clintons setting themselves above the rules." ...

... CW: As any math-challenged cynic might say, I agree with Dowd A THOUSAND PERCENT!!!! It was not only Bill Clinton who betrayed feminists in the Lewinsky affair; it was also the powerful women, including his wife, who defended him.

Politics Makes Asses of the Finest People. The Very Finest Apologize. Martin Pengelly of the Guardian: "John Lewis, the influential congressman who this week appeared to dismiss Bernie Sanders' credentials on civil rights issues, has sought to soften the ensuing controversy over his remarks.... On Saturday, he said he had not meant to express doubt 'that Senator Sanders participated in the civil rights movement, neither was I attempting to disparage his activism'.... As a student at the University of Chicago, Sanders was involved in the Congress on Racial Equality and the Student Nonviolent Coordinating Committee (SNCC), of which Lewis was chairman. Sanders was also arrested while protesting.... Lewis also clarified a comment made on Thursday in which he said he had known Bill and Hillary Clinton in the civil rights era. Lewis said he 'did not say that I met Hillary and Bill Clinton when I was chairman of SNCC in the 1960s'."

... John Frank & Joey Bunch of the Denver Post: "Bernie Sanders galvanized a crowd of more than 18,000 with a populist message against inequality.... Hillary Clinton's campaign hosted a small event that featured party leaders and teary families affected by gun violence." Read on. Sanders will go to a party & criticize the hosts, to wit: at "the Colorado Democratic Party's annual fundraising dinner..., Sanders took the stage in front of a room of well-heeled Democrats and called for a more inclusive party not controlled by wealthy donors." Clinton, not so much: "Clinton struck an optimistic tone as she focused on raising incomes for the middle class, addressing student debt and continuing the fight toward universal health care." ...

... Yamiche Alcindor : "Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont pointedly criticized Republican officials for recommending that President Obama hold off on nominating a successor for Justice Antonin Scalia of the Supreme Court, who died Saturday. Speaking on Saturday at an annual fund-raising dinner hosted by the Colorado Democratic Party, Mr. Sanders said Republicans are overlooking the powers given to the president in the Constitution.... Hillary Clinton made similar remarks at the same dinner." ...

... Talia Lepson, chair of the College Democrats of Massachusetts Women's Caucus, in a Globalist essay: "I am voting for Bernie Sanders because I am a feminist." Thanks to D.C. Clark for the link.

News Ledes

AP: "Turkey shelled positions held by a U.S.-backed Kurdish militia in northern Syria for a second day on Sunday, drawing condemnation from the Syrian government, whose forces are advancing against insurgents in the same area under the cover of Russian airstrikes."

AP: "Pope Francis urged Mexicans to shun the devil and resist the temptations of wealth and corruption Sunday as he celebrated an open-air Mass for hundreds of thousands of people in this drug- and violence-riddled city [-- Ecatepec --] on the outskirts of Mexico's capital."

Weather Channel: "A blast of bitter cold arctic air has brought the coldest temperatures in decades to some Northeast cities Valentine's Day morning."

The Commentariat -- Feb. 13, 2016

Sabrina Tavernise of the New York Times: "Despite big advances in medicine, technology and education, the longevity gap between high-income and low-income Americans has been widening sharply.... The causes are still being investigated, but public health researchers say that deep declines in smoking among the affluent and educated may partly explain the difference.... Limited access to health care accounts for surprisingly few premature deaths in America, researchers have found.... The growing longevity gap means that benefits like Social Security are paid out even more disproportionately to the better-off, because they are around for more years to collect them." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Hiroko Tabuchi & Danielle Ivory of the New York Times: "As the safety crisis surrounding Takata's airbags that are prone to rupture has mushroomed, the Japanese auto supplier has insisted that the propellant in its airbags is safe. But on Friday, testimony in a Florida court showed that Takata's own engineers discarded evidence that may have shown otherwise as long as 16 years ago. As early as 2000, around the time the propellant, which includes a compound called ammonium nitrate, was introduced into Takata models, failures occurred during internal testing. But Takata altered its test data to hide the failures from its biggest customer, Honda, and a senior Takata executive ordered some of the evidence be discarded, the testimony said."

Presidential Race

No More Mrs. Nice Clinton. Jonathan Martin & Alan Rappeport of the New York Times: In South Carolina, "Hillary Clinton forcefully attacked Senator Bernie Sanders before a heavily black audience Friday, highlighting his criticism of President Obama, the Affordable Care Act and for what she suggested was a single-minded focus on economic fairness at the expense of racial justice.... Mrs. Clinton made clear that she intends to run in this state's primary by effectively seeking Mr. Obama's third term -- and claiming Mr. Sanders would be a threat to the first black president's accomplishments.... Separately, the 'super PAC' supporting her, Priorities USA, said it would begin running ads that Mrs. Clinton is the true heir to Mr. Obama's legacy when it comes to helping blacks." ...

... Matea Gold, et al., of the Washington Post: "Priorities USA Action, the main super PAC supporting [Hillary] Clinton, unleashed a $5 million infusion of spending on her behalf, upending plans to hold its fire until the general election. The move calls attention to growing concern within the party's leadership that her campaign may be in trouble, and it underscores how crucial several upcoming contests have become in Clinton's battle with [Bernie] Sanders.... In addition, the Democratic National Committee announced that it had rolled back restrictions introduced by presidential candidate Barack Obama in 2008 that banned donations from federal lobbyists and political action committees. Both actions offer the potential for financial benefit for Clinton. But both also could backfire." ...

... CW: But remember, Hillary Clinton is not part of the establishment, because she's a woman. ...

... Madeleine Albright, in a New York Times op-ed: Dear Ditzy Girls, I'm a little bit sorry I told you to go to hell for supporting Bernie Sanders or any other male candidate for president, but you don't know what I've been through. P.S. For you Hillary-loving ladies, "there will always be a special place of honor." ...

... CW: Sorry, Madame Secretary, as apologies go, that was not an apology anyone but Ted Cruz would recognize. ...

... By her own account, Hillary Clinton & Henry Kissinger were best buds, & she relied on him for policy advice. Amy Chosick of the New York Times reports. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...

... ** Dan Froomkin of the Intercept writes a shortcourse on the nefarious exploits of Henry Kissinger. Froomkin asserts that Hillary Clinton & the GOP candidates are "picking [foreign policy advisors] from essentially the same pool." ...

     ... CW: Froomkin writes one thing, to illustrate a point, that amused me: "Imagine two types of people: those who would schmooze with Kissinger at a cocktail party, and those who would spit in his eye. The elite Washington media is almost without exception in that first category." I once went to a small cocktail party where Kissinger was also a guest. Ergo, I can tell Froomkin from personal experience that there are at least three kinds of people at those cocktails parties: the ones like me who go out of their way to avoid Kissinger. But then at that particular party, which a European head-of-state also attended, I was on my good behavior. ...

... The Tampa Bay Times Editors endorse Hillary Clinton for the Democratic nomination. ...

... Dana Milbank: "Much of Hillary Clinton's difficulty in this campaign stems from a single, unalterable fact: She is a woman." ...

... Yo, Dana, here's another example. Fashion Statement? Judy Kurtz of the Hill: "Hillary Clinton apparently sported the same mustard-colored yellow jacket to Thursday's Democratic presidential debate that she wore while photographed in 2014 next to the CEO of Goldman Sachs." CW: So how many times do you suppose a male politician has been criticized for wearing the same suit or tie to a lobbyist's event & a political event? Zero, you say?

... Charles Pierce: "The most heartbreaking part of the entire week was what happened when John Lewis, who happens to be the bravest living American, jumped into the increasingly pointless rhetorical slanging match that is the Democratic presidential nominating campaign. Lewis is a staunch supporter of Hillary Rodham Clinton and good on him for that. In voicing that support, however, he seemed to cast doubt on the veracity of Bernie Sanders's claim to have been involved in the civil rights movement back in the day.... He 'didn't see' Sanders at events? So what? I don't think Dr. King ever met Viola Liuzzo or James Chaney either."

Eric Levitz of New York: "Black Lives Matter was once a 'problem' for Bernie Sanders. Now the movement is Sanders's strongest base of support in the African-American community.... [Hillary] Clinton has produced a series of endorsements from African-American leaders, including (most of) the Congressional Black Caucus. Sanders has gone virtually without endorsements from national Democrats of any color. But the protest candidate has fared far better among the leaders of the African-American community's most vital protest movement." Even as Erica Garner, Eric Garner's daughter endorsed Sanders, her grandmother endorsed Hillary Clinton. "The split in the Garner family is representative of the generational divide in many Democratic groups":

... OR NOT. Edward-Isaac Dovere of Politico: "A warm, welcoming African-American crowd [in Minneapolis] grew increasingly frustrated with Sen. Bernie Sanders on Friday evening, complaining that he's too scared to talk about specifically black issues.... The crowd and the panel grew lukewarm on Sanders, saying his focus on economic inequality looks past the entrenched problems they face as African-Americans." ...

... CW: By contrast, see Steven Shepard's Politico report on Hillary Clinton's speech to a largely-African-American audience in Denmark, South Carolina (an event also reported in the New York Times, linked above). It's pretty clear that Clinton knows how to tailor her speeches to her audience, while Sanders does not. Sanders' critics, including Clinton, are right. A rising tide does not lift all boats; women, minorities, the undereducated of all persuasions, get pushed into the leaky craft, where we must keep on bailing. Sanders says he knows that, & I believe he does, but he thinks he can get away with rushing through a few audience-friendly lines before launching into a standard stump speech that he feels covers all bases. It doesn't. The best way to deal with a hostile audience, BTW, is often to hear them out. Listening isn't Bernie's strong suit, either.

Gail Collins: "The run-up to this weekend's Republican debate was greatly enlivened by the news that Amy Lindsay, an alum of 'Animal Lust' and 'Whose Thong Is It Anyway?,' was starring in a Cruz campaign ad.... When the official action begins, Marco Rubio will be careful to avoid repeating himself. But maybe we could have a little chime that rings every time he mentions that his parents were hard-working immigrants.... Jeb ('I am my own man') Bush has been surrounding himself with so much family you'd think he was a von Trapp.... Donald Trump's son Eric recently defended his father's enthusiasm for waterboarding by saying it 'frankly is no different than what happens on college campuses in frat houses every day.'"

Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "The anti-tax group Club for Growth is beginning a $1.5 million advertising buy against Donald J. Trump in South Carolina, with a kitchen-sink-style spot that describes the real estate developer as a fake" (Also linked yesterday afternoon):

... Bradford Richardson of the Hill: "Donald Trump supporters have filed a lawsuit challenging the eligibility of ... Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) to run for president. The lawsuit, filed Feb. 3 at a district court in Alabama, seeks a judgment 'declaring that Rafael Edward Cruz is ineligible to qualify/run/seek and be elected to the Office of the President of the United States of America' due to his Canadian birth." ...

... Eugene Scott of CNN: "Donald Trump on Friday threatened to sue Ted Cruz for 'not being a natural born citizen' if the Texas senator 'doesn't clean up his act' and stop running negative ads against him."

Screenshot from the first "Dumb & Doofus" bro flick. Doofus, played to type by Jeb!, is pictured on the left."Dumb & Doofus, Together Again." Watch Another Side-Splitting Performance When the Prodigal Returns. Philip Rucker & Ed O'Keefe of the Washington Post: "The 2016 campaign has bewildered and captivated George W. Bush.... In private and among friends, Bush and his wife, Laura, express amazement at an election season that has been hijacked by Donald Trump.... On Monday -- Presidents' Day -- Bush ... is stepping back into the arena for an evening rally in North Charleston with his brother.... Monday's rally will be [George] Bush's first public appearance of this campaign.... If past is prologue, Trump will use Bush's appearance as ammunition to torment Jeb. Last week in New Hampshire, Trump mocked Jeb for campaigning with his 90-year-old mother, Barbara Bush...."

Well, this is going to create unprecedented turmoil in the Republic presidential race: Jim Gilmore just suspended his campaign. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)

Senate Race

Lisa Hagen of the Hill: "Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) on Friday pressed Rep. Alan Grayson (D-Fla.) to drop his Senate bid amid scrutiny surrounding his hedge fund, according to a statement provided to The Hill. Reid challenged Grayson's progressive credentials and criticized the Florida congressman's 'moral compass' based on the recent reports about his fund." CW: I'm with Harry.

Beyond the Beltway

Maxine Bernstein of the Oregonian: "The final four holdouts in the armed takeover of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge appeared one by one in federal court Friday afternoon, a day after they surrendered to end a 41-day occupation of the federal bird sanctuary.... David Fry, 27, the last of the occupiers, was led into court wearing a thick full-length anti-suicide smock.... All pleaded not guilty to federal indictments charging each with one count of conspiring to impede federal officers from doing their work at the wildlife sanctuary."

Way Beyond

Nick Miroff & Brian Murphy of the Washington Post: "Pope Francis landed [in Havana, Cuba,] Friday for an unprecedented encounter with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, a meeting that bridged a nearly 1,000-year rift in Christianity but whose focus was expected to be the current turmoil in the Middle East. The brief talks between the pontiff and Patriarch Kirill -- as they crossed paths at Havana's airport -- marked the first meeting between the religious leaders of the Vatican and Moscow since an 11th century Christian schism over papal authority and other disputes." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)