The Commentariat -- Feb. 12, 2016
Afternoon Update:
This is going to create unprecedented turmoil in the Republic presidential race: Jim Gilmore just suspended his campaign.
Sabrina Tavernise of the New York Times: "Despite big advances in medicine, technology and education, the longevity gap between high-income and low-income Americans has been widening sharply.... The causes are still being investigated, but public health researchers say that deep declines in smoking among the affluent and educated may partly explain the difference.... Limited access to health care accounts for surprisingly few premature deaths in America, researchers have found.... The growing longevity gap means that benefits like Social Security are paid out even more disproportionately to the better-off, because they are around for more years to collect them."
By her own account, Hillary Clinton & Henry Kissinger were best buds, & she relied on him for policy advice. Amy Chosick of the New York Times reports.
Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: "The anti-tax group Club for Growth is beginning a $1.5 million advertising buy against Donald J. Trump in South Carolina, with a kitchen-sink-style spot that describes the real estate developer as a fake":
Nick Miroff & Brian Murphy of the Washington Post: "Pope Francis landed [in Havana, Cuba,] Friday for an unprecedented encounter with the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, a meeting that bridged a nearly 1,000-year rift in Christianity but whose focus was expected to be the current turmoil in the Middle East. The brief talks between the pontiff and Patriarch Kirill -- as they crossed paths at Havana's airport -- marked the first meeting between the religious leaders of the Vatican and Moscow since an 11th century Christian schism over papal authority and other disputes."
Presidential Race
When Debbie Was Right & I Was Wrong. ...
... The Bickersons. Amy Chozick & Patrick Healy of the New York Times: "Hillary Clinton ... repeatedly challenged the trillion-dollar policy plans of Bernie Sanders at their presidential debate on Thursday night and portrayed him as a big talker who needed to 'level' with voters about the difficulty of accomplishing his agenda.... Mrs. Clinton pounced from the start, after Mr. Sanders demurred in saying how much his proposals would increase the size of the federal government." ...
... Obama Obama Obama. Evan Halper & Michael Memoli of the Los Angeles Times: "Hillary Clinton sought to reboot her candidacy in a nationally televised Democratic debate Thursday night by closely aligning herself with President Obama and charging that her opponent is running on a one-note agenda. A calm, measured Clinton mentioned Obama's name 21 times during the two-hour debate. She chastised Sen. Bernie Sanders for criticizing Obama in language she said a Republican might use. And she tried to move past the Wall Street ties that have become the albatross of her campaign by warning voters that cleaning up campaign finance alone won't fix the country." ...
... Brian Beutler: "... in the debate's closing moments, Hillary Clinton sharpened one of her most promising -- yet fraught -- appeals to the Democratic base. Clinton frequently portrays herself as President Obama's natural heir. On Thursday night, for the first time, she effectively portrayed Bernie Sanders as one of President Obama's most inconstant allies." ...
... John Cassidy of the New Yorker: "Time and again across a long, and occasionally tetchy, evening, Clinton sought to use the President as a shield to guard against Sanders's blows, and as a sword with which to try and wound her opponent. At one point, she even accused Sanders of echoing Republican attacks on Obama -- a claim that prompted Sanders to reply, Madame Secretary, that is a low blow.' Indeed it was. But these are low days for the Clinton campaign -- and the race is now headed to Nevada and South Carolina, two states with a lot of minority voters, a group that thinks very highly of Obama." ...
... Jim Newell of Slate: "I am right now listening to the CNN post-debate commentary, and analyst Gloria Borger is describing this tactic as one the Clinton campaign considers 'helpful for South Carolina.' Oh? What she's trying to say is: The Clinton campaign is talking so much about how great Obama is, and how mean Sanders is to Obama, because there are a lot of black voters in South Carolina. It is the most amusingly obvious campaign tactic since, say, Wednesday morning, when Sanders for whatever reason decided to meet with Al Sharpton in Harlem the day after the New Hampshire primary." ...
... David Graham of the Atlantic: "Henry Kissinger ... was the subject of the biggest fireworks of Thursday night's debate in Milwaukee, which came after some 75 minutes of a mostly earnest, dry debate.... 'I am proud to say that Henry Kissinger is not my friend,' Sanders declared, referring to Clinton's praise for the former secretary of state during the last debate. Suddenly, all hell broke loose. In a surreal spectacle, Clinton -- a child of the 1960s campus left and a leader of the nation's liberal party -- defended Kissinger, once a bogeyman to the Democratic Party. She tried to turn the argument back on Sanders, noting that he hadn’t managed to name who his own foreign-policy advisers are. He was ready: 'It ain't Henry Kissinger,' he replied." ...
... Fred Kaplan of Slate: "There is no question, Clinton jumps hoops over Sanders when it comes to foreign policy. Where he is eloquent on most other subjects, he's clearly sweating when the debates turn to the world outside our borders. Hence his constant retreat to the 2002 vote on Iraq and now her presumed guilt by association for secret decisions made between 1969 and 1972. Nonetheless, Clinton really should stop quoting the likes of Kissinger...." ...
... Jonathan Martin of the New York Times: "Facing off against Senator Bernie Sanders on Thursday night, Hillary Clinton did not comport herself like someone who had just suffered a landslide loss in New Hampshire. She did not raise her voice or express anger. She did not demonize Mr. Sanders or suggest he would be a dangerous choice for Democrats. She remained calm as he pungently sought to highlight their differences." ...
... CW: I agree. I didn't watch much of the debate, but I did get the impression that in her delivery, Hillary followed the advice of Reality Chex contributors. Now let's see if we can get Bernie to modulate the volume. Drop the Howard Beale impression, Bernie. Remember, the Beale character was crazy. We've heard you speak in conversational tones. You can do it. And we can hear you when you do.
... Jim Newell: During the debate, Hillary Clinton claimed she had nothing to do with & no knowledge of the superPACs that support her, & she repeatedly mentioned that superPACs supported our beloved President Obama, too. "The idea that there was Hillary Clinton just settin' up the ol' presidential campaign when along came this super PAC, unbeknownst to her, that decided to collect money on her behalf just for its own sake is risible. Support from Priorities USA, among other super PACs, was very much an effort on behalf of Clinton's team to get her elected. Clinton has even helped solicit donations for Priorities." ...
... Greg Sargent: At last night's debate, Hillary Clinton opened a new front of sorts against Bernie Sanders when she made this closing argument." Sargent points to the strategic implications of Clinton's argument. CW: I don't think anyone, including Sanders, would disagree that many of the country's systemic problems have little or nothing to do with big banks & fatcats.
A Democratic presidential debate will begin at 9 pm ET Thursday. Alan Rappeport of the New York Times has details on where you can access it live on PBS, CNN & NPR. ...
... The New York Times liveblog is here.
Manu Raju & Ted Barrett of CNN: "Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid said Thursday that the Democratic race for president could drag on for months -- and possibly to the Democratic National Convention in July.... 'These races go on for a long long time,' Reid said. When asked if that included a brokered convention, he responded 'Sure, seriously some of the old conventions produced some good people.' Reid also said, 'It would be kind of fun.'" Raju's interview of Reid, which accompanies the story, is fun.
Elise Viebeck of the Washington Post: "Members of the Congressional Black Caucus launched a multi-pronged attack Thursday on Sen. Bernie Sanders as a false revolutionary who lacks strong ties to the black community. The influential African American elected officials are seeking to use their clout to boost Hillary Clinton.... They officially endorsed the former first lady inside the Democratic National Committee headquarters in Washington (though it was deemed an 'unofficial' event) and pledged to vigorously campaign for her in upcoming contests.... One key South Carolina Democrat did not attend the CBC PAC's news conference. Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.), the No. 3 House Democrat, has not endorsed a candidate.... Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), a member of the CBC, accused the group Thursday of excluding him from its endorsement process." ...
... Lee Fang of the Intercept: "... the Congressional Black Caucus PAC [which endorsed Clinton Thursday] is not the same thing as the Congressional Black Caucus, which is made up of 46 members of Congress.... Ben Branch, the executive director of the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, told The Intercept that his group made the decision after a vote from its 20-member board. The board includes 11 lobbyists, seven elected officials, and two officials who work for the PAC. Branch confirmed that the lobbyists were involved in the endorsement...." Read on.
... Hillary's War on Math: 80 = 60. John Ralston of the Ralston Report: "Clinton spokesman Brian Fallon told NBC's Chuck Todd..., 'There's an important Hispanic element to the Democratic caucus in Nevada. But it's still a state that is 80 percent white voters....' 80 percent white? What? This canard was later repeated Wednesday by Clinton campaign manager Robby Mook.... And it was then repeated on a conference call.... I understand the desire of Team Clinton to lower expectations in Nevada.... But both Mook and Fallon know that 80 percent figure is ludicrous, and the attempt to make Nevada seem like Iowa and New Hampshire is a spin too far.... Nevada's Hispanic population is about 27 percent. African-Americans and Asian/Pacific Islanders make up almost 10 percent each. That is, nearly half of the state's population is made up of minorities. The Democratic caucus population was 35 percent minority in 2008, according to exit polls, and is expected to be as high as 40 percent in 2016, according to local Democratic sources." ...
... Tom Hamburger & Rosalind Helderman of the Washington Post: "Investigators with the State Department issued a subpoena to the Bill, Hillary and Chelsea Clinton Foundation last fall seeking documents about the charity's projects that may have required approval from the federal government during Hillary Clinton's term as secretary of state, according to people familiar with the subpoena and written correspondence about it. The subpoena also asked for records related to Huma Abedin, a longtime Clinton aide who for six months in 2012 was employed simultaneously by the State Department, the foundation, Clinton's personal office, and a private consulting firm with ties to the Clintons." CW: The issuance of a subpoena suggests Hillary was not fully cooperating with investigators although it's possible the subpoena was a formality designed to absolve the Clintons of responsibility for turning over docs.
Sahil Kapur of Bloomberg: "Bernie Sanders' pitch to Democrats is that all the new voters he'll energize will compel Congress to support the transformative programs they want.... The first tests are in, and the signs of a revolution at the ballot box are scant. Rather than a surge of the previously disaffected, Democratic turnout was down in the first two states to hold contests in the nomination race -- by 28 percent in Iowa and 13 percent in New Hampshire."
... Driftglass says Bernie's ad producer "deserves a massive raise."
Steve M. learns that Confederate Democrat Jim Webb will not be running an independent race for the presidency. Steve thinks that's too bad, because Webb, although nominally a Democrat, would surely take more votes from the Republican candidate than from the Democratic nominee. CW: I don't know that Webb would have been a factor at all, tho as a former Virginia senator, he might have garnered enough votes in that important swing state to alter the outcome.
Tim Egan: "... the most likely Republican nominees have left a precise guide of what they would do on Day One in office. From violating the Geneva Convention on war crimes and torture, to becoming a renegade nation on climate change and trade, to kicking millions of people off health care, it's a hefty list of first-day promises."
Marco's "War on Math." Jonathan Chait: "The Tax Policy Center released on Thursday its analysis of Marco Rubio's ginormous-tax-cut plan. The figures are pretty staggering. Once fully in effect, Rubio's plan would increase the budget deficit by almost a trillion dollars a year. Rubio's tax cuts would overwhelmingly accrue to the rich. The highest-earning one percent would take home 40 percent of the benefit. The lowest-earning two-fifths of the country would see its income rise just over one percent from the Rubio tax cuts, while the richest one percent would see its income rise by almost 9 percent.... Naturally, Rubio's campaign is disputing the validity of these numbers.... In total, Rubio promises an enormous tax cut, higher defense spending, no changes to Medicare or Social Security over the next decade, and a balanced budget.... But because these promises are so impossible, he can't accept the legitimacy of standard budget accounting and must rely on fantasy promises of massive economic growth." ...
... Jordan Weissmann of Slate: "At this point, a Republican tax plan would not be a Republican tax plan if it weren't a morally and mathematically risible giveaway to America's wealthy. The latest reminder of this fact comes to us from the nonpartisan Tax Policy Center, which Thursday released an assessment of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio's especially plutocrat-friendly proposal."
How to Get the Catholic Vote. Alan Rappeport: "Donald J. Trump has a message for Pope Francis ahead of the pope's trip to pray with migrants along the Mexican border: You don't get it.... In an interview with the Fox Business Network on Thursday, the Republican presidential candidate, who has proposed building a wall along the United States's southern border, suggested that Francis was serving as a pawn of the Mexican government. 'I think that the pope is a very political person,' Mr. Trump said.... 'I think Mexico got him to do it because they want to keep the border just the way it is. They're making a fortune, and we're losing.'"
It's $8 billion.... And of the 2,000 [miles], we don't need 2,000, we need 1,000 because we have natural barriers, et cetera, et cetera, and I'm taking it price per square foot and a price per square, you know, per mile, and it's a very simple calculation. I'm talking about precasts going up probably 35 to 40 feet up in the air. That's high; that's a real wall. -- Donald Trump, on the cost of building a wall along the U.S.-Mexican border. Feb. 9
... based on the costs of the Israeli security barrier (which is mostly fence) and the cost of the relatively simple fence already along the U.S.-Mexico border, an $8 billion price tag is simply not credible. -- Glenn Kessler of the Washington Post
Marc Fisher of the Washington Post: In 2002 (or thereabouts) Donald Trump "wanted to develop a weekly drama series based on his own life. The show, titled 'The Tower,' was to feature the adventures of a New York City developer who makes big deals, loves to win, and has set out to construct the tallest building in the world. Producers hired a Hollywood TV writer, Gay Walch, to create a pilot script for 'The Tower.'... Network executives said the script, like the overwhelming majority of pilots, never made it to TV because it wasn't a compelling story." Embedded with the story is "a scene from NBC's pilot script, read ... by actors." CW: So the nightmare thru which Trump is now putting the country is little more than material for a more "compelling" story about an egomaniacal sociopath who runs for president.
Nick Gass of Politico: "Ted Cruz's campaign pulled a recent ad after it was discovered that one of the actresses featured in it has also appeared in softcore porn films. The 30-second ad..., which launched Thursday, is set during a group therapy session in which conservative voters talk about being double-crossed by Marco Rubio. The video was pulled from YouTube on Thursday evening. 'Maybe you should vote for more than just a pretty face next time,' the woman played by Amy Lindsay tells another group member. Lindsay's filmography includes titles such as 'Animal Lust,' 'Co-Ed Confidential' and 'Carnal Wishes.'" CW: Probably Driftglass wouldn't give Ted's adman "a massive raise." ...
... Andrew Kaczynski & Christopher Massie of BuzzFeed have embedded the Cruz ad. ...
... MEANWHILE. M.J. Lee of CNN: "Ted Cruz will launch his most forceful attack yet against Donald Trump in a TV ad that accuses Trump of buying political influence 'in a pattern of sleaze stretching back decades.' The 60-second spot, shared first with CNN, is part of a six-figure ad buy that will hit voters' TV screens across South Carolina starting as early as Thursday":
... Maggie Haberman of the New York Times: Just before Cruz started airing negative ads against Trump in South Carolina, the Trump campaign "abruptly" pulled an attack ad against Cruz. "Mr. Trump's campaign manager, Corey Lewandowski, had made the decision to go with all positive spots beginning on Thursday." ...
... Cruz Control. The Creepiness of Ted Will Go to Your Head. Michael Biesecker & Julie Bykowicz of the AP: "Republican presidential candidate Ted Cruz has campaigned against government spying on law-abiding citizens, but his campaign is testing the limits with personal data from his supporters. His 'Cruz Crew' mobile app is designed to gather detailed information from users' phones -- tracking their physical movements and mining contact information of friends. That information is fed into a database containing details about nearly every adult in the U.S. to build psychological profiles that target individual voters with uncanny accuracy. Data-mining to help candidates win elections has been increasingly used by both Republicans and Democrats. But The Associated Press found the Cruz campaign's app goes furthest to glean personal data."
Joanna Walters of the Guardian on John Kasich: "... behind the unassuming image is a track record in his home state of Ohio, where he is a second-term governor, that puts him a big step to the right of what many Americans would consider moderate. Within hours of his success in New Hampshire, fresh legislation was passed in Ohio that will further restrict access to abortion in a state where Kasich has signed every one of a series of href="http://bigstory.ap.org/article/eb8b7ad955ce4544b36e169a94529946/apnewsbreak-kasich-aides-helped-craft-abortion-restrictions">anti-choice measures that has ever reached his desk. Across the state he has made an enemy of public sector unions, teachers and environmentalists with attacks on collective bargaining, cuts to funding of public schools alongside scandals in the charter school education sector, and enthusiastic support for oil and gas production via fracking -- even though that has not brought as much prosperity to the state as some think." CW: And this doesn't even speak to his ignorance of sound federal fiscal policy. ...
... Paul Krugman: "It looks ... as if we're still living in the economic era we entered in 2008 -- an era of persistent weakness, in which deflation and depression, not inflation and deficits, are the key challenges. So how well do we think the various presidential wannabes would deal with those challenges? Well, on the Republican side, the answer is basically, God help us. Economic views on that side of the aisle range from fairly crazy to utterly crazy."
Other News
** David Sanger of the New York Times: "Secretary of State John Kerry and his Russian counterpart, Sergey V. Lavrov, announced that they had agreed on the delivery over the next few days of desperately needed aid to besieged Syrian cities, to be followed by a cease-fire that is supposed to clear the way for renewed peace talks. 'We have agreed to implement a nationwide cessation of hostilities in one week’s time,' Mr. Kerry said. 'That is ambitious.'"
Louis Sahagun of the Los Angeles Times: "President Obama designated three new national monuments in the California desert Thursday, expanding federal protection to 1.8 million acres of landscapes that have retained their natural beauty despite decades of heavy mining, cattle ranching and off-roading. The designation was requested by U.S. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who for a decade has sought to protect land that wasn't included in the 1994 California Desert Protection Act. That measure covered nearly 7.6 million acres, elevated Death Valley and Joshua Tree to national park status and created the Mojave National Preserve."
Martha Mendoza of the AP: "A bill headed for President Barack Obama this week includes a provision that would ban U.S. imports of fish caught by slaves in Southeast Asia, gold mined by children in Africa and garments sewn by abused women in Bangladesh, closing a loophole in an 85-year-old tariff law that has failed to keep products of forced and child labor out of America. An expose by The Associated Press last year found Thai companies ship seafood to the U.S. that was caught and processed by trapped and enslaved workers. AP tracked fish and shrimp from people locked in cages and factories to supply chains of top retailers and restaurants, from supermarket chains like Wal-Mart and Whole Foods to restaurants including Red Lobster."
Les Zaitz of the Oregonian describes the end of the siege of the Malheur Refuge. ...
... Here's an account by Carissa Wolf & others of the Washington Post: "After repeatedly threatening to shoot himself, complaining that he couldn't get marijuana, and ranting about UFOs, drone strikes in Pakistan, leaking nuclear plants and the government 'chemically mutating people,' the last occupier, David Fry, 27, lit a cigarette, shouted 'Hallelujah' and walked out of his barricaded encampment into FBI custody." CW: Apparently there is a Constiutional right to free cannibis. ...
... The Oregonian is running a liveblog of developments at the Malheur Refuge stand-off. At 12:15 pm ET, it appears the married couple -- Sean & Sandy Anderson -- is surrendering; they have to walk about a half-mile from their hideyhole to the check-point. The page also has an embedded livefeed from KGW-TV. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Update: "The four remaining occupiers of the Malheur National Wildlife Refuge surrendered Thursday morning, bringing an end to the standoff on its 41st day. Jeff Banta, Sean Anderson, Sandy Anderson and David Fry were taken into FBI custody. Fry was the last to surrender, finally emerging after an extended phone dialogue with supporters who tried for over an hour after the others left to get him to walk out." ...
... The New York Times story, by Dave Seminara & Richard Perez-Pena, is here.
Capitalism Is Awesome, Ctd. Matthew Lee of the AP: "The Obama administration opened a two-front campaign on Syria on Thursday with a push to end one war there and step up another. As U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry scrambled in Germany to negotiate the timing and conditions for a cease-fire between the Syrian government and moderate rebels, U.S. Defense Secretary Ash Carter was in Belgium trying to rally new support for the fight against the Islamic State group. Meanwhile, the United States and Russia traded allegations over the bombing of civilian areas around the besieged city of Aleppo as fighting there intensified, further fueling fears of a mass exodus of refugees." (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Tierney Sneed of TPM: "An Iranian official said 'Republican rivals of the current US administration' attempted to stall last month's Iranian-U.S. prisoner swap until the eve of the U.S. presidential election, Tasnim News Agency reported.... The prisoner swap ... included Washington Post journalist Jason Rezaian and three other U.S. citizens imprisoned in Iran, who were freed in exchange for the release of seven Iranians." CW: That's a devastating charge.
Annals of "Journalism," Ctd. CW: I know many Reality Chex readers are fans of Charles Pierce, & I admire the way he can often bring snark to a high art form. Moreover, the points of the snark are usually well-taken. BUT. I objected when he laughed off sexual abuse, to no avail, & I don't like it when he uses ethnic slurs to characterize minorities. Last week I would have linked one of his posts deriding Marco Rubio but again Pierce called Rubio "greasy," so I took a pass. Yesterday he went over the top: "The Rubio people should be selling this from in front of an abandoned gas station, along with boiled peanuts and a picture of Elvis on velvet." I doubt Pierce would acknowledge his bigotry; he probably isn't aware of it. He's one more guy who came up in an age when white men thought demeaning everybody else was funny, & he never outgrew it.
Senate Race
Why Can't We Get Better Politicians? Eric Lipton of the New York Times: "... emails and marketing documents obtained by The New York Times show the extent to which [Rep. Alan] Grayson's [D.-Fla.] roles as a hedge fund manager and a member of Congress were intertwined, and how he promoted his international travels, some with congressional delegations, to solicit business." Grayson is running for the Senate seat Marco Rubio is vacating. The House Ethics Committee is investigating Grayson's shenanigans. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.) ...
... Roll Call lists Grayson as the 12th-wealthiest member of Congress. The list includes both senators & representatives. (Also linked yesterday afternoon.)
Beyond the Beltway
Alice Walton, et al., of the Los Angeles Times: "Nearly four months of environmental contamination and civic disruption in Porter Ranch came close to an end Thursday when work crews pierced the underground casing of the damaged Aliso Canyon gas well and started injecting it with a mud-like compound. 'The well is no longer leaking,' said Jimmie Cho, senior vice president of gas operations and system integrity for Southern California Gas Co. The final step is for concrete to be pumped into the well, a process that could begin as soon as Friday, and for state regulatory officials to declare that the leak has ceased."
Sarah Nir of the New York Times: "A New York City police officer was convicted of manslaughter on Thursday in State Supreme Court in Brooklyn for killing an unarmed man who was hit by a ricocheting bullet fired from the officer's gun in the stairwell of a housing project. The officer, Peter Liang, and his partner were conducting a so-called vertical patrol on Nov. 20, 2014, inside the Louis H. Pink Houses in East New York, Brooklyn. At one point, Officer Liang opened a door into an unlighted stairwell and his gun went off. The bullet glanced off a wall and hit Akai Gurley, 28, who was walking down the stairs with his girlfriend, piercing his heart."